What Does the Future Hold?

The summer of 2021 was another historic fire season for western states with mega-fires like the 900,000-acre+ Dixie Fire and the 221,000-acre+ Caldor Fire, which crossed into the Tahoe Basin and garnered international attention. As the Tahoe Rim Trail Association grapples with how best to preserve and improve the trail experience during the West’s intensifying fire seasons, the Association is leaning into the science behind these mega-fires and taking a deeper look at why these fires are growing so big, how fires are managed, and what individuals and communities can do to help mitigate the risk of future mega-fires.

Historically, and under President Theodore Roosevelt, the role of the newly formed US Forest Service (USFS) was to manage timber production and the health of US forests to provide a sustainable supply of timber for a rapidly growing country. The USFS based its management approach on European practices which relied heavily on fire suppression to protect the economic value of the timber. Eventually, as wildfire seasons grew in length and intensity due to more fuel accumulation throughout western forests, the catastrophic consequences of decades of suppression efforts highlighted the need for fire on the landscape and the deficiencies of a suppression-only management strategy towards wildfire. After 13 smokejumpers perished in the Mann Gulch fire in 1949, the USFS reevaluated its forest and fire management practices. It created the Rocky Mountain Research Station Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory to provide cutting-edge wildfire science and technology. The new areas of study evaluated when, where, and how to fight wildfire while also balancing the ecosystem’s dependence on occasional low-intensity wildfire.

Wildfire science has provided evidence that the mega-fires the West has experienced in the past decade are the result of excessive amounts of fuels on the forest floor, climate change, and also an increase in human traffic in forested and/or remote areas. Both good and bad fire exists. Bad fire cannot be addressed without good fire, and prescribed burns are one possible solution to reduce the amount of fuel in the forest. A wildfire at the right place and time can help restore the health of fire-dependent ecosystems by reducing the number of hazardous fuels, removing invasive species which threaten the health and survival of native species, minimizing the spread of disease and pest insects, improving soil health by recycling nutrients back into the soil, and promoting the growth of trees, wildflowers, and plants. Prescribed fires and well-managed low-intensity wildfires reduce the risk of unwanted wildfires in the future. Sara McAllister, Ph.D., a Research Mechanical Engineer at the Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory notes, “you’re really not going to

by Lindsey Schultz & Kate Gallaugher

have the best fire mitigation if you don’t go in and burn. The question we often ask folks is, what type of smoke and fire do you want? A little in the fall in spring, or a lot all summer long.”

Today, firefighting resources are able to contain and control about 97% of all fires. However, for the 3% of fires that grow beyond that control, the fires can become catastrophic long-term events that burn at high intensity, no longer providing any ecological benefit and resulting in the destruction of whole communities built in the wildland-urban interface. These fire events are managed with strategy and tactics formed based on a suite of risk-based tools and fire behavior models developed by the Missoula Fire Sciences Lab and implemented on the ground by thousands of firefighting personnel like Armando Perez, a Hotshot with the Eldorado National Forest. Armando has more than a decade of experience fighting wildfires and notes the importance of fire science and the data they receive. He explains, “topography, weather, and fuels are the main things we look at. We can’t control the weather. We really can’t control the fuels or topography but we can manipulate it by eliminating some fuels or by line placement.” Modeling and data from fire scientists and fire weather from meteorologists are essential to bringing large-scale fires under control.

For firefighters like Armando it’s been a hard year not only in terms Above: The Caldor Fire Perimeter Below: Hot Shots for the Eldorado National Forest fight the Caldor Fire.

Forest closure sign near Meyers, CA at the apex of the Caldor Fire Eldorado National Forest Hot Shots

of fire behavior but also the locations his crew has found themselves fighting fire. This year Eldorado Hotshots fought fire in their backyard, at one point having to burn lines in front of their base in Sly Park as well as fighting near the homes of neighbors, family, and friends. Personal relationships aside, wildland firefighters usually fight fire in the wilderness, and not as often in areas populated with humans and structures. “It does change our tactics,” Armando explains, “if there are no houses and we’ve got a ridge, we can pretty much put our line on top of the ridge and secure it. But when you have houses spread out, now you can’t put a straight line where you normally would because you have these structures.” He adds, “You don’t change your procedures, you change the way you’re going to burn the area. It’s going to be a slower burn and you need more resources. You need more engines, water, holding resources, and a lot of luck.”

Armando and his crew will continue to split their time between current fires and rehabilitation work in the Caldor Fire burn area. After a fire has been suppressed, significant work remains to rehabilitate the forest. Dozer lines, burn lines, and charred hazard trees render burned regions unsightly and especially hazardous. Armando says that getting ahead on rehabilitation work will minimize future damage to the forest.

As humans continue to recreate, build, and move further into wildlands, everyone has a responsibility to reduce wildfire risk and support firefighting efforts. Data from the Wildland Fire Management Information (WFMI) and USFS Research Data Archive shows that nearly 85% of wildfires are triggered by humans. “A lot of the fires that start out here are abandoned campfires or (due to) negligence,” Armando states. The public should know the current fire restrictions in their area and follow front and backcountry fire-related rules, regulations, temporary closures, and evacuation orders. “If the forests are closed or Aerial photo of plumes of smoke enveloping the Tahoe Basin (8/29/2021).

Ski Boundary sign once prominently placed high on a tree, now a remnant of the Caldor Fire.

Echo Summit Reroute, completed in 2020, now charred

the campsites are closed…that’s because the fuels are super receptive and a small campfire could turn into a big fire real quick.” If a fire starts, following evacuation orders and respecting closure orders are some of the biggest things the public can do to help. When fires are raging, the public should follow evacuation orders to allow firefighters to do their job more efficiently.

The TRT was incredibly fortunate to not have suffered more extensive fire damage from the Caldor Fire and that is in large part to our partners, trail community, and wildland firefighters like Armando Perez. Our thanks and sincere gratitude to all the individuals involved with managing wildland fires both locally and afar who helped keep our community safe during this record-breaking wildfire season. Soil and vegetation damage from the Caldor Fire

This year, TRT users had trouble deciphering a multitude of news sources and websites, and how their planned adventures might be impacted by poor air quality, and how a fire may grow to impact their experience. The best laid plans were thwarted for many first-time and veteran adventurers. It’s important to remember that safety always comes first, and to know that when it comes to fire, things can change quickly. The risk of recreating during fire-season is a high one. Remember that having even the slightest doubt based on available information of whether you should recreate or not should be the deciding factor. The potential to be evacuated or harmed from fire is not worth it. And while we know many look forward to their experiences on the TRT, plans can change during summer fire months. Like the trail system itself, be adaptable and ready for a change with contingency plans. Your adventure might be delayed for a better experience, one not filled with worries over smoke and fire. Please check our trails condition page or contact the Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit during the summer months with questions or to find additional information.