Measuring the perception of risk of sea level rise along alameda shoreline

Measuring the Perception of Risk from Sea-Level Rise Along the Alameda Shoreline A Study on the Impact of a Rising Tide Carline Au, Julianne Chou and Swati Sachdeva CPLA 241 | Fall 2013

Sea-Level Rise in Alameda | Table of Contents

BACKGROUND Introduction | Site History and Context | Site Selection

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SITE MEASUREMENTS Demographics | Economic Impact | Weather History | Field Observations RESEARCH STUDY Hypothesis and Definitions | Survey results | Conclusion and Implications APPENDIX Sample Survey | References

CPLA 241 Fall 2013 Professor: Peter Bosselman GSI: Erik Jensen

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Background | Introduction

The Bay Area is blessed with a comfortable climate. Unlike other large metropolitan areas, extreme temperatures are rare. However, the Bay Area will be affected both directly and indirectly by rising sea levels in the foreseeable future. Climate scientists say that coastal erosion, flooding, and increased storm surges might cause serious damage to habitats as well as property damage and threats to major infrastructure.

The City of Alameda will be one of the first to experience serious destruction from inundation.

Neighborhoods near Alameda Southshore have been built on landfill, which puts them at risks as water levels change in the Bay. Our study will use mail-in surveys and field interviews to examine how two neighborhoods of Alameda’s Southshore perceive their risk due to sea level rise differently, depending on their locational setting to a lagoon or shoreline.

Background | Site Context and History

The Southshore area is separated from the main part of Alameda Island by a lagoon; the north shore of the lagoon is located approximately where the original south shore of the island was. Alameda Point and Southshore are built on artificial fill.

Before the 1950s, Alameda’s south shore looked very different than it does today. Homes at the end of Grand, Paru, Union, Bay, St. Charles and other streets in the Gold Coast were on the waterfront, with views to San Francisco and the San Mateo hills. At Park Street where Otis Drive is today, there was a wharf, shaded by a grove of oak trees.

In the 1950s, the city of Alameda was struggling with a post-World War II population decline. Even though there was little open space left for development on the Island, city officials were determined—in the name of progress—to take part in the suburbanization that was sweeping the country.

Because Alameda was an island, however, there was nowhere left to build. It was seen as a place with old houses, few jobs and no future. Thus, the city of Alameda gave authority to developers to dredge and fill the Southshore to create suburbs.

The lagoons, it seems clear today, were a compromise to allow longtime residents on the Bay, faced with declining property values, to maintain “waterfront” views. This represented a change from the original plan to fill the entire area, with a roadway likely where the lagoons are today.

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Background | Site Selection Alameda was chosen as the site of study since it will be one of the first communities in the Bay Area to feel the direct impact of sea-level rise. Demographically, the area is relatively homogenous; the only main difference between the two sample populations is the locational sestting of the lagoon vs. the shoreline. The demographic similarities between the two populations will allow for a relatively focused study that aims for a nuanced understanding of how a community’s relationship to different bodies of water might affect its perception of risk.

50 cm Rise [Approx. Year 2050]

100 cm Rise [Approx. Year 2081]

150 cm Rise [Approx. Year 2100]

When standing on Bayview Drive, it appears that the houses on both sides of the street lie at the same elevation. A closer look at topographical maps and projected sea-level rise maps, however, highlight that the shoreline houses actually stand at a slightly higher elevation than those on the lagoon side. Thus, a rise in the sea level will actually affect the lagoon residents before it will affect the bayview residents, even though the lagoon residents live farther from the shore.

Sea-level rise projections courtesy of USGS

Lagoon Residents

Bayview Residents

Bay View Residents

Lagoon 5 Residents

150 cm Sea-Level Rise (approx. year 2100) 100 cm Sea-Level Rise (approx. year 2081) 50 cm Sea-Level Rise (approx. year 2050)

Shoreline Marshland

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Public hiking trail

Bayview Drive

Alameda Lagoon 5 1 5

10

100 FT

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Site Measurements

Demographics | Economic Impact | Weather History | Field Observations

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Site Measurements | Demographics A demographic profile will provide an understanding of the Alameda Southshore communities. Using 2010 U.S Census, Bayview residents constitute Census Block 2005 while lagoon residents constitute Census Block 2020.

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Bayview Community

Lagoon Community

Total Households: 79 Median Age: 54.8 Average household size: 2.08 Median Income: $90,996 (census tract 4282) Owner-Occupied: 65% Owner Occupied with mortgage: 46% Owner-Occupied without mortgage: 19% Renter-Occupied: 14% Married-Couple Family: 48% Population by Races White: 65.9% Black: 1.8% Hispanic: 6.1% Asian: 25.6% Two or More: 6.7%

Total Households: 135 Median Age: 48.4 Average household size: 2.39 Median Income: $90,996 (census tract 4282) Owner-Occupied: 85% Owner Occupied with mortgage: 55% Owner-Occupied without mortgage: 29% Renter-Occupied: 14% Married-Couple Family: 48% Population by Races White: 65.3% Black: 3.1% Hispanic: 7.4% Asian: 21.36% Two or More: 5.0%

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Site Measurements | Economic Impact of Sea-Level Rise The economic impact of sea level rise will jeopardize infrastructure, such as roads, airports, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities, wastewater treatment plants, power plants, and more will also be at increased risk of inundation, as are vast areas of wetlands and other natural ecosystems. In a study conducted by the Pacific Institute, the cost of replacing property at risk is estimated to be nearly $100 billion (in year 2000 dollars).

Their key findings include: • Nearly $100 billion (in year 2000 dollars) worth of property, measured as the current replacement value of buildings and contents, is at risk of flooding from a 100-year event with a 1.4 m sea-level rise if no adaptation actions are taken. An overwhelming two-thirds of that property is concentrated on San Francisco Bay. The majority of this property is residential. • Coastal armoring is one potential adaptation strategy. Approximately 1,100 miles of new or modified coastal protection structures are needed on the Pacific Coast and San Francisco Bay to protect against coastal flooding. The total cost of building new or upgrading existing structures is estimated at about $14 billion. We estimate that operating and maintaining the protection structures would cost approximately 10% of the initial capital investment, or around another $1.4 billion per year.

Replacement Value of Buildings and Contents at Risk of a 100-year Flood on San Francisco Bay, by County (In Millions of Year 2000 Dollars).

County Current Risk

Risk with Sea Level Rise .5 m 1.0 m 1.4 m

% increase (1.4 m)

Alameda Contra Costa Marin Napa San Francisco San Mateo Santa Clara Solano Sonoma

3,300 190 4,700 220 110 16,000 3,700 620 150

5,300 10,000 330 620 5,900 7,400 260 320 370 1,400 18,000 21,000 4,700 6,400 940 1,900 180 240

+ 370 + 430 + 79 + 89 + 3400 + 41 + 110 + 210 + 82

Total

29,000

36,000

15,000 980 8,500 410 4,000 23,000 7,800 1,900 280

49,000 62,000

+ 110

Source: Pacific Institute (2009) According to a study conducted by the Pacific Institute, of the $62 billion of property at risk with a 1.4 m sea-level rise, about 50% of the assets at risk are residential. The commercial and industrial sectors face much greater risk on San Francisco Bay than on the Pacific coast. Agriculture, education, religion, and government each account for about 1% of the assets at risk, thus their exposure to risk is fairly small.

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Site Measurements | Weather History Our secondary measurements examine weather impacts such as tidal and wind, which our study believes affects individual’s perception of rising sea levels. A “king tide”occurs when the earth, moon and sun are aligned, resulting in the largest tidal range seenover the course of a year. A king tide was reported on November 6, 2013 and in mid-February this year with tides reaching up to 7 feet high. The charts below show the top 10 max tidal levels in Alameda since 1980, king tides during December 12-19, 2012, and mean high tide and low tide 2012 monthly tidal history (NOAA).

Rank

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

TOP 10 MAX TIDAL LEVELS 1980-Present Alameda, CA (Courtesy of NOAA)

Level (Ft.)

Date

12.98 12.81 12.45 12.3 12.29 12.23 12.16 12.16 12.11 12.1

Dec. 3, 1983 Jan. 27, 1983 Feb. 6, 1998 Jan. 18, 1973 Jan. 8, 2005 Dec.31, 2005 Nov. 30, 1982 Dec. 24, 2003 Jan. 10, 2005 Dec. 23, 2003

Wind data between 2005-2012 reports the months of January and October having the highest peak wind gusts. Our mail-in surveys and field interviews were conducted during the months of October and November 2013.

Another significant factor influencing residents’ perception of rising sea levels is their flood risk. The areas in and around Alameda’s south shore are not required to purchase flood insurance, according to the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Our study believes that not having these areas designated as a “100-year flood plain” inherently underplays and even disguises community’s risk perception.

SECONDARY MEASUREMENTS

WIND HISTORY 2005-2012

MEAN HIGH TIDE AND LOW TIDE 2012 MONTHLY TIDAL HISTORY

(Courtesy of NOAA)

FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP (Courtesy of FEMA)

(Courtesy ofLow NOAA) Mean High Tide and Tide

KING TIDES DEC. 12-19, 2012 (Courtesy of NOAA)

2012 Monthly Tidal History

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Tidal Height (Feet)

5 4 3 2 1 0

el SiteRise pl nin 2100 (150 cm)

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0

0.05

0.1

0.2 Miles

¯

Jan Mean High Tide 6.1 Mean Low Tide 1.2

Feb 5.9 1.2

Mar 5.9 1.0

Apr 5.8 0.9

May 5.7 0.9

Jun 5.9 1.1

Jul 6.0 1.3

Aug 6.1 1.3

Sep 6.0 1.3

Oct 6.0 1.1

Nov 6.1 1.1

Dec 6.0 1.2

Peak Wind Gust (Knots)

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Month King Tides in December 2012

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Tidal Height (

residents living along a shoreline vs. and Observations Site Measurements | Field Interviews a lagoon in Alameda?

3 2 1

The Lagoon 5 Weir System 0

In order to inform our study techniques, we interviewed residents on both the shoreline side of the street and the 0 Sea Ala Level eda SiteRise pl nin 2100 (150 cm) lagoon side prior to conducting the mail-in surveys. Site visits occurred during the months of October and November 2013.

0.05

0.1

0.2 Miles

FIELD MEASUREMENTS

¯

Jan Mean High Tide 6.1 Mean Low Tide 1.2

Feb 5.9 1.2

Mar 5.9 1.0

Apr 5.8 0.9

May 5.7 0.9

Jun 5.9 1.1

Jul 6.0 1.3

Aug 6.1 1.3

Sep 6.0 1.3

Oct 6.0 1.1

Nov 6.1 1.1

Dec 6.0 1.2

The water level in Lagoon 5 is controlled by a weir, which is maintained by the City of Alameda. According to Laurie Kozisek from the Engineering Department, “Seawater is pumped into the westernmost lagoon (Lagoon 1) from an intake pipe in the bay, and a pump house at the shoreline. The water proceeds through the five lagoons slowly, via gravity flow, and out a culvert from the easternmost December 2012 lagoon (Lagoon 5) backKing intoTides theinbay.

There are control weirs and gates at the exit from the third lagoon (near Willow St), and the exit from the fifth lagoon (near Bayview Dr). This system acts as an aesthetic feature and as a retention/sedimentation basin. We lower the lagoon levels just prior to expected rainstorms so that we can catch the runoff and allow it to settle some, before it is released into the bay.”

What are lagoon residents saying?

What are shoreline residents saying?

“Tides only go up to the bay trail.”

Wind History 2005 - 2012

“We control the water levels.”

“I’m an architect. I’ve seen the maps. It’s way down the line.”

“We’re not that close to the bay.”

PEAK WIND GUST (KNOTS)

“The city and HOA take care of the lagoons.”

“The tides are scary during full moons! But it’s also beautiful.”

"In the 17 years I've lived here, it's only overflowed once."

MONTH

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Bay View Residents

14 Lagoon 5 Residents

Research Study

Hypothesis and Definitions | Survey Results | Conclusion and Implications

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Research Study | Hypothesis

Q:

How do perceptions of risk due to sea-level rise vary between residents living along a shoreline vs. a lagoon in Alameda?

HYPOTHESIS: Among residents of Alameda’s Southshore, shoreline residents have a more heightened perception of risk due to sea level rise compared to lagoon residents.

In collecting field observations, measurements and preliminary interviews, we based our hypothesis on the bayview residents’ closer proximity to (and views of) the shoreline, as well as the lagoon residents’ perception of control over the water level of the lagoon through the weir system.

In order to test our hypothesis, we delivered 100 mail-in surveys to residents in our study area (45 to bayview residents and 55 to lagoon residents). In total, 24 surveys were returned between the period of November 15 and December 4, 2013. The survey, which is included in the appendix of this report, included a total of 15 questions plus one area for free-form comments. The survey questions aimed to understand demographics (address, age, home ownership and tenture), observance of flooding and/or extreme weather conditions, and overall perception of risk due to sea-level rise.

Quantitative survey results have been compiled in pie-charts and a perception scale by locational setting (bayview vs. lagoon). A selection of the qualitative results (free-form comments from residents after completing the survey] are indicated by the resident’s address on a map of the study site.

Research Study | Definition of Terms VARIABLES Location of residence (shoreline vs. lagoon)

-Presence of lagoon weir system that allows control of water levels in lagoon

-Residents’ observance of flooding, king tides and strong winds

-Mandate by FEMA to purchase flood insurance

-Visual qualities of landscape

-Differences in elevation of residences

CONSTANTS The residential population in Alameda from Broadway Street to Court Street

DEFINITION OF TERMS Perception According to Egon Brunswick’s probabilistic model, “Environmental Perception involves the process of apprehending through sensory input the physical environment that is immediately present ... In order to cope with the ambiguities and inconsistencies of the sensory cues that reach us from the environment, that individual must build up a repertoire of probabilistic statements about the environment.”

Risk The Oxford English dictionary defines risk as “(Exposure to) the possibility of loss, injury, or other adverse or unwelcome circumstance; a chance or situation involving such a possibility.”

Sea Level Rise The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines sea level change as “a change in global average sea level brought about by an alteration to the volume of the world ocean. Sea level rise is one of several lines of evidence that support the view that the climate has recently warmed. The global community of climate scientists confirms that it is very likely that human-induced (anthropogenic) warming contributed to the sea level rise observed in the latter half of the 20th century.”

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43%

Somewhat 25%

Indifferent 7%

concerned about your risks compared to 7 feet high. Did you observe this occurrence? neighboring streets?

Concerned 34%

Not at all concerned 8%

Indifferent 8%

do you perceive your flood Research Study | Survey Resultsrisk due to heavy Prior to this survey, were you aware of Bayview Lagoon In and around your home, have you sorand seasurvey, level rise compared to other risks Have you ever beenLagoon informed about your risks to this were you aware of the Bayview effects of climate change and rising experienced heavy rainfall during winter due to sea level rise (for example by real estate heffects as illness, accidents, other natural of climate change and risinghazards? sea levels inaround Alameda?

Have you ever been informed about your risks How prepared is your community to react to Prior to taking this survey, were you aware of the In and your home, have you experienced storms? agent, HOA, media? due to sealocal level risegovernment (for example by a realor estate potential threats due to rising sea levels? levels inLagoon Alameda? effects of climate change and rising sea levels in heavy rainfall during winter storms?

Bayview Have you ever been informed about your risks Not at all concerned 36%

SEA-LEVEL RISE | ALAMEDA | SURVEY RESULTS

Alameda?

Lagoon Lagoon

concerned Not at all 37% concerned 8%

More concerned 83%

Less concernedLess 27%concerned

No 33%

Yesor media?) agent, HOA, local government42%

Bayview Bayview

More

Less concerned 9%

Not at all concerned 36%

9%

More concerned 37%

Lagoon

Bayview Bayview Lagoon Bayview due to sea level rise (forLagoon example by real estate Prior to this survey, were you aware of agent, HOA, local government or media? the effects of climate change and rising How do you perceive your flood risk due to heavy A very high tide (also known as “king Lagoon Bayview How do you perceive your flood risk due to heavy sea levels in Alameda? rains and sea level rise compared to other risks reported on November 6, 2013 and in rains and sea level rise compared to other risks such as illness, accidents, other natural hazards?

Lagoon Bayview mid-February this year with tides rea such as illness, accidents, other natural hazards?

A very high tide (also known as “king tide”*) was Bayview Lagoon 7 feet high. Did you observe this occu Bayview reported on November 6, 2013 and in Lagoon ed on your location, are you more… or Are less… heavy you concerned about risks due to How do you perceive your flood risk due tomid-February this year with tides reaching up to Based on your location, are you more... or Are you concerned about risks due to rising sea How do you perceive your flood risk due to A very high tide (also known as a “king tide”) In and around your home, have you Bayview you concerned about risks due to cernedless... about your to rising sea Lagoon rains andheavy searains level compared to other7risks concerned aboutrisks your riskscompared compared to levels? and searise level rise compared to other levels? was reported on November 6, 2013 and in midfeet high.

Did you observe this occurrence? experienced rainfall during neighboring streets? risks such asheavy illness, accidents or other natural winter of this year with tides reaching up to 7 ng sea levels? hboring streets? such as illness, accidents, other natural hazards? February hazards? feet high. Did you observe this occurrance? storms?

Lagoon Bayview Bayview Lagoon In and around your home, have you Bayview Bayview Lagoon Lagoon Lagoon Bayview Bayview Lagoon during winter experienced heavy rainfall Are you concerned about risks due to storms? rising sea levels?

Based on your location, are you more… or less…

Bayview Lagoon Based on your location, are you more… orconcerned less… about your risks compared to Lagoon Bayview concerned about your risks compared to neighboring streets? neighboring streets?

Bayview Lagoon Almost certainly 20%

Very LagoonNot at all certain 10% likely 20% Not at all 17%

Yes, very aware 25%

Indifferent 10%

Somewhat likely 40%

Bayview

Very certain 18%

Almost certainly 9%

Not at all likely 28%

Yes, very aware 25%

Not at all 8%

Indifferent Yes, very 18%aware 50%

Somewhat 58%

No 55%

Somewhat Somewhat likely 42% 27%

No 58%

Not at all 17%

No 18%

Yes, very aware 50%

Yes 45% Somewhat 58%

Informed 9%

Somewhat 42%

Extremely informed 9%

Yes 82%

Somewhat 18%

Somewhat 18%

Yes, very Very aware 50% certain

10%

Somewhat 58%

Not at all concerned 8%

Yes, very concerned 7% Not at all concerned 36%

Not at all More 14% concerned 37%

Concerned 29%

Less concerned 27%

Indifferent 7%

Somewhat 43%

Less concerned 9%

Yes, very concerned 25%

Very certain 18%

likely 20%

Almost certainly 20%

Yes, very concerned 7%

Indifferent 10%

Concerned 29%

Somewhat 25%

Indifferent 8%

Yes, very concerned 25%

Somewhat 43%

Yes, very concerned 7%

Concerned

Concerned 34%

Almost certainly 20%

Indifferent 10%

Indifferent 8%

Indifferent 7%

Not at all 14%

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Very certain 10%

Somewhat 25%

Not at all 8%

No 55%

Bayview

Lagoon

Yes, very concerned 25%

Somewhat 25%

Not at all concerned

Indiīerent 25%

Not at all 42%

Not at all likely 20%

Very certain 18%

Indifferent 18%

Somewhat likely 40%

Indiīerent 17%

Not at all 42%

Not at all 42%

Somewhat 33%

Not at all likely 28%

Somewhat likely 27%

Not at all likely 20%

Very certain 18%

Yes 45% Somewhat likely 40% No 18%

Indifferent 18%

No 18%

Not at all likely 28%

No 58%

Yes 67%

No 33%

Yes 67%

Somewhat Yes likely 82% 27%

Yes 45%

Yes 82%

Yes 42%

No 33%

Yes 42%

No 58%

Almost certainly 9%

No 55%

More concerned 83%

Yes, very prepared 8%

Somewhat 33%

Almost certainly 9%

Somewhat likely 27%

Not at all 8%

Less concerned 27%

Not at all 42%

Indifferent 10%

Indifferent 18%

Somewhat likely 40%

Very certain 10% Somewhat Almost 25% certainly 20%

Not at all 64%

Not at all likely 28%

Almost certainly 9%

Not at all 14%

Not at all 8%

More concerned 83%

Concerned 34%

Somewhat Not at all 42%

Extremely informed 8% Not at all 64%

Informed 25%

Not at all 8%

Not at all 17%

Informed 25%

Somewhat 25%

Informed 9%

Yes, very aware 25%

Yes 67%

Extremely informed 8%

Extremely informed 9%

Not at all 8%

Not at all concerned 8%

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three.”

Research Study | Survey Results

“These floods may not happen in my lifetime, but I feel sure they will happen within a decade or three.”

Research Study | Conclusion and Implications

“Let’s get busy”

FINDINGS FROM THE SURVEY RESULTS:

“Let’s getsurprised busy” “We are this area is not designated as a flood zone.

We were not required to buy “We are surprised this area is flood insurance.”

not designated as a flood zone.

We were not required to buy flood insurance.”

“Just found out no county/state/municipal plans.

Please share study results.”

“Just found out no

“Becausecounty/state/municipal of my age (77), I don’tplans. expect to Please share study results.” experience too many problems. The “Because of affected. my age (77), I don’t expect to subsequent owners will be experience too problems. The Especially if the remnants of amany tsunami subsequent owners will be affected. comes here.”

Especially if the remnants of a tsunami “We are concerned about sea-level rise comes here.” around the world, but in 19 years here, “We are concerned about sea-level rise we have not seen noticeable rise.” arounda the world, but in 19 years here,

Bay view residents

Lagoon view residents Lagoon view residents

Perception scale for old and new residents in both locations

Perception scale for old and new residents in both locations Bay view residents 2000-present 1980-1999 1960-1979

Bay view residents 2000-present 1980-1999 1960-1979 Lagoon view residents 2000-present

Lagoon view residents 1980-1999 2000-present 1960-1979 1980-1999 1960-1979

Scale legend

• Bayview residents were more concerned about their risks in comparison to neighboring streets based on their location.

CONCLUSION

Alameda.”

Risk concern basedRisk on location Observance tides of Concern about risingabout sea level Community preparedness to rising seasea levels concern based on location of king Observance king tides Concern rising seaFlood level insurance Flood insurance Community preparedness to rising levels Bay view residents

during winter storm.

they are not required to.

“Hard to focus on this issue locally when “Hard to focus on this issue locally when it is a world-wide problem.

Also, what “I question the benefit of paying it is a world-wide problem.

Also, what “I question theand/or benefitliving of paying about Oakland airport, SFO?? More off my mortgage in about Oakland airport, SFO?? More off my mortgage and/or living in serious than my house.”

Alameda.” serious than my house.”

• There were more Bayview residents than lagoon residents who stated that they observed king tides and have experienced heavy rainfall

• The majority of the residents in both locations did not purchase flood insurance and, according to the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map,

we have not seen a noticeable rise.”

PERCEPTION SCALE SCALE PERCEPTION

• Newer residents (post-2000) were more concerned about their risks due to rising sea levels.

The hypothesis is true; among residents of Alameda’s Southshore, shoreline residents have a more heightened perception of risk due to sea level rise.

IMPLICATIONS AND SCOPE OF FUTURE STUDY The study revealed that despite the lagoon residents’ lower elevation and more immediate susceptibility to flooding, the bayview residents had a more heightened perception of risk due to their closer proximity to the ocean and direct observance of king tides. One can conclude that differences in landscape conditions and relationships to bodies of water (the ocean vs. a controlled, man-made lagoon) can influence one’s perception of risk.

Furthermore, the study showed that most of the residents in both locations are interested in learning more about the potential consequences of sea level rise. Almost all of the study participants pointed out that their community wasn’t prepared to react to potential threats due to rise in sea level, though some did mention that they were somewhat prepared for potential inundation.

These issues should be further studied in depth, including taking a closer look at what measures have been incorporated at the individual and community levels to deal with the threat of inundation. The information on sea level rise and its subsequent consequences seem to have not been discussed at a community level. Future researchers should engage with local authorities and share the findings as well as data on potential sea level rise. Lastly, it would be useful to repeat this study in the same location, as it seems likely that the study increased concern and interest in the topic among the partipants.

Scale legend 100%

21 100%

0%

0%

STUDY CONCLUSIONS

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Appendix

Sample Survey | References

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Sea Level Rise Perception Study

___2000‐present

___1980‐1999

___ None

___ Bay view Estates Home Owner’s Association

___ Alameda West Lagoon Home Owner's Association

4. To which of the following homeowner’s association are you a member?

___ I own

___ I rent

3. Home Occupancy:

___1960‐1979

___Before 1959

2. When did you move into your present residence?

1. Address: _______________________________________________________________________ (Your personal information will be kept confidential and will not be shared with others)

Not at all Somewhat Indifferent Concerned Yes, very concerned

Not at all Somewhat Don’t remember Informed Extremely informed

Not at all Somewhat Indifferent Prepared Yes, very prepared

10. How prepared is your community to react to potential threats due to rising sea levels?

Page 2 of 3

9. Have you ever been informed about your risks due to sea level rise? (For example by real estate agent, HOA, local government or media)

8. Are you concerned about risks due to rising sea levels?

*According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, "Global Sea Level Rise” is primarily attributed to changes in ocean volume due to two factors: ice melt and thermal expansion. Sea levels are predicted to rise 40 cm (1.3 feet) by 2050.

___Yes, very aware

___Somewhat

___Not at all

7. Previous to this survey, were you aware of the effects of climate change and rising sea levels* in Alameda?

___Not sure

___No

___Yes

6. Does your property have flood insurance?

___65+

___40 + 64

___18Ͳ39

Page 1 of 3

The Bay Area is blessed with a comfortable climate. Unlike other large metropolitan areas, extreme temperatures are rare. However, the Bay Area will be affected both directly and indirectly by rising sea levels in the foreseeable future.

Climate scientists say that coastal erosion, flooding, and increased storm surges might cause serious damage to habitats as well as property damage and threats to major infrastructure.

In a research study conducted by UC Berkeley’s College of Environmental Design graduate students, this survey will help them understand perceptions of risk due to sea level rise and possibly inform city leaders how to plan for citizen engagement prior to natural disasters.

Please return your survey by November 22, 2013 to: 228 Wurster Hall #1850, Berkeley, CA 94720‐1850.

Please use return envelope provided.

5. What is your age?

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Appendix | Sample Survey

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Page 3 of 3

Name: __________________________________ Phone and or eͲmail: _______________________________________

Could we reach you if we have additional questions? Please provide your preferred method of contact and phone number and/or eͲmail. We appreciate your time and consideration in this study.

Do you have any comments about the risks and consequences of sea level rise?

________________________________________________________________________________________________

14b. How do you generally notice the rise in water level?

* A “king tide” occurs when the earth, moon and sun are aligned, resulting in the largest tidal range seen over the course of a year.

___No

___Yes

14a. A very high tide (also known as “king tide”*) was reported on November 6, 2013 and in midͲFebruary this year with tides reaching up to 7 feet high. Did you observe this occurrence?

___Not at all concerned

___Less concerned

___More concerned

13. Based on your location, are you more… or less… concerned about your risks compared to neighboring streets?

Not at all likely Somewhat unlikely Indifferent Almost certainly Very certain

12. How do you perceive your flood risk due to heavy rains and sea level rise compared to other risks such as illness, accidents, other natural hazards?

___No

___Yes

11. In and around your home, have you experienced heavy rainfall during winter storms?

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Appendix | References

United States Geological Survey (USGS)

National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Pacific Institute, “The Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on the California Coast.” 2009.

Bosselmann, Peter. Urban Transformation – Understanding City Design and Form, Island Press. 2008 Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC)

San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission United States Census 2010

City of Alameda Department of Public Works and Department of Engineering Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

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