SinoShip Autumn 2012 Issue

Offshore wind opportunities Timber trades AUTUMN 2012

r e om ou sit s.c sit eb ew Vi w hipn w s ne ino s w. ww

LNG White Paper

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Family courage CC Hsu negotiates the downturn

Handling charter disputes in China Shanghai banking “Our industry needs to raise its entry barriers” — Kenneth Koo Sinoship AUTUMN 2012

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CONTENTS ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ Regulars 3 Editor’s Comment 4 Economy 6 Lines

The great thing about a bad market is you can build good ships because shipyards will sit down and speak to you

9 Yards 10 Offshore

Obsolescence creates the perfect storm of opportunity for shipbuilding

13 Finance 15 Commodities 16 Logistics 17 Cruise

■ ■ ■ Profiles 19 Chih-Chien Hsu 21 Kenneth Koo

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— CC Hsu, Courage Marine

23 Chun-Sheng Cheng

24 LNG 26 Law 30 Registries

■ ■ ■ Hubs 32 Shanghai

23

■ ■ ■ Opinions 37 Max Hong 38 Pedersen & Sviggum 39 Li Deng Bai

— Wisdom Marine’s Chun-Sheng Cheng

We see lots more small LNG ships on the horizon boosting regional trade and changing dynamics — George Wang, ABS

35 Hong Kong

36 Books

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In around two or three years our fleet will reach 100 ships

33 Taipei

■ ■ ■ Reviews

— John Rowley, Lloyd’s Register Asia

Because shipowning is volatile it is good to be in a family business for continuity and to remember how bad things can get

22 Captain Wei Jiafu

■ ■ ■ Features

3

— Wah Kwong’s Tim Huxley

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It would be good to see the PRC flag used more often for ships trading worldwide — Ince & Co’s Peter Murray

China’s non-legal culture crashes with the four corners of a document — Geir Sviggum, Wikborg Rein

28

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UP FRONT ■ ■ ■

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An ASM publication EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com CHIEF CORRESPONDENT Katherine Si katherine@asiashippingmedia.com CORRESPONDENT Jason Jiang jason@asiashippingmedia.com BEIJING Li Deng Bai SHANGHAI Engen Tham HONG KONG Alfred Romann DALIAN Mark Downing GUANGZHOU Wang Fanglei TAIPEI Joshua Samuel Brown CONTRIBUTORS Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh PHOTOGRAPHERS André Eichman, Basil Pao, Cover: NHST Events All editorial material should be sent to sam@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to Office 701, 9 Renmin Lu, Zhongshan District, Dalian, China 116001 COMMERCIAL DIRECTOR Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com CHINA SALES DIRECTOR Tom Wu sales@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip advertising agents are also based in Japan, Korea and Scandinavia — to contact a local agent email grant@asiashippingmedia.com for details.

Media kits are available for download at:

www.asiashippingmedia.com All commercial material should be sent to grant@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to Asia Shipping Media, 83 Lorong N Telok Kurau #02-05, Singapore 425 265 DESIGN Lamma Studio Design PRINTERS Allion Printing, Hong Kong SUBSCRIPTIONS

Any shipping-related company headquartered in the People’s Republic of China can receive SinoShip magazine for free. For all other companies a US$100 subscription is charged for 2012’s four issues of SinoShip. Email subs@asiashippingmedia.com for subscription enquiries.

Copyright © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2012 www.asiashippingmedia.com Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this review is correct, the publishers accept no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions that may occur. All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the copyright owner. For reprints of specific articles contact grant@asiashippingmedia.com.

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The spectre of obsolescence A recurrent theme in this issue is the very likely development of a two-tier dry bulk market caused by the move to green designs and the possible obsolescence of a vast swathe of the international merchant fleet.

Obsolescence was the hot topic at the recent SinoShip Dry Bulk Business Breakfast in Hong Kong, and the idea that ships as young as 10-years-old might be redundant soon had a number of owners at the event in the Foreign Correspondents’ Club very ill at ease.

“The great thing about a bad market is you can build good ships because shipyards will sit down and speak to you,” noted the ceo of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, Tim Huxley.

Oak Maritime’s Jack Hsu mused that with fuel prices at $700 a ton shipyards are creating new designs that are 5, 10, 15% more fuel efficient than previous generation ships, previous generation meaning the ships that are hitting the water now. “This creates economic obsolescence,” he said, adding: “In previous years the average age of scrapping for capes was 23 to 25 years, panamaxes 25 to 27 years and handies at 30 and beyond. Is that going to change?”

The banker’s point of view was made clear by Evan Cohen from DVB Bank, who said less efficient ships — aged between 10- and 15-years-old — have very limited capital value and will struggle to raise much debt finance. “Owners are getting capital based on quality,” he said.

KC Maritime’s boss Vikrant Bhatia wondered how obsolescence will impact the pricing of ships. “If we see 10-yearolds that are not going to trade for another 15 years will that make the 10-year-olds suffer in value and in turn will that impact newbuild prices?” he asked those attending the exclusive shipowner gathering.

Quick to respond was Wah Kwong’s Huxley. “There will be a differential on

prices for sure,” he reckoned. “This might be a tipping point, the 2012-built ships that are being built with this still slightly dated technology compared to what you might be able to get from 2013 onwards, well that might be the tipping point in a big differential in values,” he posited.

For more on this fascinating theme check our Yards reporting on page nine plus the acerbic comments from new columnist Max Hong on page 37 and for all the latest news on China’s shipowners and shipyards check out our news site at www.sinoshipnews.com.

Sam Chambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com Sinoship AUTUMN 2012

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■ ■ ■ Economy

Towards a correction Paul French looks at the current rebalancing of the nation’s wealth When Beijing announced a 7.6% growth figure for the second quarter of the year, down from 8.1% in the first three months, immediate predictions of collapse and apocalypse rained forth from analysts. Any sign of slowdown in China’s economy is seen by many as a portent of doom. But, given that this is SinoShip after all, perhaps rather than apocalypse a better image might be that of an oil tanker changing direction — some slowing is necessary to achieve the correction. And so Beijing should be able to live with a little slower growth in recognition that the days of growth based on abundant cheap labour, cheap capital and tapping booming export markets such as the EU and US are over.

The future of China’s economy (if it is indeed to avoid economic apocalypse) is a steadier 7-8% growth rate but with more money pumped into boosting the country’s welfare system — an aging society needs a proper pensions system and healthcare system, an increasingly middle class urban society needs a better funded higher education system to drive innovation and entrepreneurship (and ultimately jobs growth), a society with a staggering wealth gap needs to raise wages for the working poor. All this means sacrificing some growth and also spending a bit more money — boast about hospital numbers and loan growth to small businesses rather than sovereign wealth funds and forex accounts for a change.

It does seem that China’s economy is rebalancing 4

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slightly — away from the traditional overdependence on exports and inward investment towards more of a roll for domestic consumption. Retail sales continue to grow and are massively understated — they catch only a fairly narrow snapshot of the increasingly diverse multi-channel retail sector that is China. Raising the working poor’s spending to anything like the new middle classes requires wage rises. This is happening — factory workers wages are rising by more than 10% a year as blue-collar workers’ pay is used to drive up consumption; similarly so new and higher minimum wages are being introduced and enforced across the country. The message is clear — the middle class (so cossetted in recent years by the property market and low taxation) must now stand on its own two feet while the spotlight turns to shine on the working poor. This may hurt luxury good sales but should be a substantial tonic to those selling everyday items — soap, shampoo, instant noodles, etc.

PANDA SAVINGS 32% of the Chinese middle class are still saving over 50% of their salary days of consumption primarily but infrastructure spending is continuing apace — fixed asset investment as a proportion of output is up in 2012 so far driven by state-owned enter-

Like a tanker changing direction some slowing is necessary to achieve the correction This rebalancing and closing of the wealth gap to shore up Beijing’s number one goal of ‘social harmony’ will lead to more inflation and probably the deflating of the property bubble in many cities. But a healthier and more balanced economy should emerge on the other side. Beijing talks these

prises launching new projects, mostly construction.

And here’s the rub that is known as ‘financial repression’ and is the Catch 22 of the Chinese economy at the moment. Individual savers continue to save heavily — according to a new survey from Mintel in Shanghai 32% of the Chinese

middle class staggeringly are still saving over 50% of their salary. However, these savings attract a tiny, if not negative, amount of interest and in an economy growing at 7-8% (let alone the go-go days of 10+%) that’s a rotten deal for savers.

However, the banks are sitting on large amounts of cash that’s not circulating in the retail economy and they tend to lend it to state-owned enterprises that do relatively low labour intensive projects such as construction. The Chinese people save and dampen spending while the banks lend to safe and traditional infrastructure projects — many will ask where’s the now essential innovation and job creation in that equation?

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■ ■ ■ LINES

Titan Petrochemicals is looking to get a new owner as it tries to swerve away from a potentially fatal lawsuit from one investor, Warburg Pincus. The Hong Kong-based energy shipper is suffering from huge debts and Warburg Pincus, which owns around 10% of the company, has initiated a lawsuit that could see Titan being wound up. Titan, however, claims it has received a non-binding offer to control the company from Zhuhai Zhenrong Energy, one of China’s top five oil traders, and is discussing the issuance of new shares.

Grim times continue across most of the Cosco Group. Hong Konglisted China Cosco Holdings said its first-half loss widened more than 50% from the RMB2.8bn deficit for the six months ended June 30, 2011. Meanwhile, Shanghai-listed Cosco Shipping said interim profit would slide 99.5% to RMB700,000.

So precarious is the financial situation at Nanjing Tanker Corporation that it has had to put two of its tankers as collateral to borrow RMB400m from CMB Leasing, the firm

said in a filing to the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The latest deal means Nanjing Tanker has a total of 15 ships as collateral.

Separately Hong Kong’s Wallem Shipmanagement and Nanjing Tanker have launched NW Shipmanagement, a joint venture ship management partnership based in Singapore. While Wallem has had a presence in Singapore for more than 50 years, the move marks Wallem’s first shipmanagement presence in Singapore.

Jin Jiang Shipping has signed a four plus four deal with Jiangnan Shipyard for 1,100 teu ships for an undisclosed sum. The ships will start delivering from February 2014. Founded in 1983 in Shanghai the order marks a very significant expansion for the intra-Asia operator as it currently owns just 10 ships. In July Jin Jiang inked an agreement with Japanese warehouse and logistics companies, Sumitomo Warehouse and Mitsui-Soko in Shanghai to develop integrated logistics businesses.

China State Shipbuilding Corp (CSC) has established a shipping unit in Hong Kong

following other yards such as Sinopacific and Sainty Marine keen to enter owning to avoid the worst of the downturn.

“The move will enhance the state major’s operational flexibility and help avoid distressed sales, should some of its customers cancel orders or default on payments,” the state run giant group said. “This unit will be involved in vessel leasing, seaborne transport, vessel sales, shipmanagement, investments, introduction of new technology related to ships and offshore equipments, crew management and other shipping-related business,” CSSC said. CSSC’s first half net profit dropped by around 80% from RMB15.984m during the same period of 2011.

Hong Xiang Shipping became the latest Chinese firm to renege on charter deals. Two New York-listed vehicles of John Fredriksen, Ship Finance International (SFI) and Knightsbridge Tankers, saw four handysizes and a capesize redelivered respectively at the end of July. “We have a full guarantee from Hong Xiang’s parent company Beijing Jianlong Heavy Industry Group Co Ltd, a large Chinese industrial

conglomerate, and we will aggressively pursue all available means to recover amounts due to us and claim for damages,” SFI said.

PB Towage Australia, the harbour towage division of Hong Kong’s Pacific Basin, and Boluda Towage & Salvage have signed a cooperation agreement that will see the companies submit joint bids for upcoming Australian LNG terminal tug contracts. The move is part of an overall strategy by Hong Kong-listed Pacific Basin to be less reliant on the dry bulk trades.

Ningbo Marine looks set to be changing hands, with discussions underway between parent company Ningbo Marine Group and Zhejiang Energy Group Company over a potential sale.

Ningbo Marine is engaged in ocean bulk cargo transport, primarily coal, and has struggled in the current market turning in losses of RMB36.73m in the first quarter of 2012.

Zhejiang Energy Company was set up in 2001 and provides electric power construction services to government-owned power enterprises in Zhejiang province.

Your chance to reach the right audience This magazine is being read by every major shipowner and shipyard across Greater China.

Features in Issue 4 include insurance, ports and propulsion.

Contact grant@asiashippingmedia.com for advertising details

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YARDS ■ ■ ■

STATE-OF-THE-ARC Shipping’s days of high emissions are numbered

Lean and green It’s survival of the greenest in the Chinese shipbuilding sector, reports Sam Chambers In the massive culling of Chinese shipyards taking place at the moment one of the very key assets for survival is in offering green ship designs.

As columnist Max Hong notes on page 37 the era of lowest possible consumption (LPC) has arrived as the only way to squeeze a long-term positive cash flow in a lean earnings environment.

LPC is a survival-imposed evolution that is also merging with the soon-to-be enforced regulations of going green.

New ship designs that can save up to 20% in fuel costs are likely to make a large portion of the current trading fleet obsolescent.

“Obsolescence creates the perfect storm of opportunity for shipbuilding,” argues John

Rowley, the director of Lloyd’s Register Asia. “Prices are low, regulatory pressure is there and will get stronger. Operating costs are the biggest pressure.

Oil prices will only continue to head north.”

With Japan locked into a yen distorted pricing structure and Korea too busy cashing in on the LNG and offshore boom, it leaves China as the new cradle for innovation for this new generation in dry bulk.

For green ships, Rowley reckons the top yards in China can compete with Korea and Japan.

He recounts how he was looking at a VLCC design recently that had just hit the waters. The ship used 104 tons of bunker fuel a day, whereas the latest designs use 80 tons a day. “That’s $5m a

year of fuel cost savings. Yards that can give those economic advantages through designs are going to survive.”

“The biggest challenge in China is to come up with fuel efficient ships,” says Lasse Kristoffersen, president and ceo of Torvald Klaveness.

Acknowledging this is Wang Jinlian, general secretary of the China National Shipbuilding Industry Association (CANSI), who stresses: “We need to research and develop the technology which will be compliant with new regulations in the next five to ten years or even longer. The market has higher requirements on energy saving, and many domestic brands cannot meet the higher standards and if they do not make design breakthroughs their market share will diminish.”

This has not been lost on Beijing with the nation’s outgoing transport minister, Li Shenglin, urging in June for China to accelerate the establishment of a low carbon transport system to achieve energy saving goals.

Li said that the Ministry of Transport expects by 2015 operating vehicles and ship operators to reduce their CO 2 emissions per tonne-mile by 10% and 16% respectively from 2005 levels and lower overall port energy consumption by 8%.

In order to ensure the realisation of the targets, incentive policies and special funds will be established by the ministry.

Hybrid breakthrough This summer, Chinese shipbuilding celebrated the successful trial voyage of the nation’s first dual fuel vessel with hybrid power of diesel and LNG. The Haichuan 3 left Guangda shipyard late in the morning of July 28 and sailed successfully along a portion of the Yangtze river deploying its hybrid propulsion system.

Haichuan 3 is a 3,100dwt bulk carrier operated by SinotransCSC. The ship was developed with Kunlun Energy, Wuhan Transportation Development Group and CNPC Jinan Diesel Engine. It is classed by China Classification Society.

This ship is 79.60 m long and 13.60 m wide and can carry 15 cu m of LNG. The 400 kw of power from the hybrid engine allows the vessel to reach speeds of 18.7 knots.

This debut ship type is expected to be the first of hundreds that will change pollution levels along the Yangtze dramatically in years to come.

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■ ■ ■ REGULARS

COLOURFUL DELIVERY Cosco Shipyard hands over a vessel to MPI Offshore

Blowing in the wind China is getting in on the wind installation craze The need for wind turbine installation vessels (WTIVs) is growing, albeit from a small base, and China is getting in on this high value act where new units are priced in the $150200m range.

Lloyd’s Register’s (LR) lead offshore specialist Rob Whillock notes, “A number of early units have been conversions or retrofit of barge units used originally in the oil and 10

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gas industry. The focus has now switched to newbuild jack-ups for deployment in northern Europe and we expect that further construction will take place in Asia.”

The LR man says the sector

is a “fast growing but, in all likelihood, relatively small market” with a global fleet of around 40 vessels in the near to medium term as the emphasis moves to deeper water and purpose-built units.

A number of early units have been conversions or retrofit … the focus has now switched to newbuilds

Fellow classification society Germanischer Lloyd (GL) sees Europe alone taking 20 to 30 large vessels.

As for demand from China itself, GL’s business development manager for offshore in China, George Zhang says: “The government is ambitious in boosting offshore energy but currently we can’t see a clear map due to barriers of policy, technology, finance, etc.”

OFFSHORE ■ ■ ■ China has four companies capable of building WTIVs, with Jiangsu province very much to the fore.

Jiangsu Jiaolong Heavy Industry Group ( JHI) is the most recent yard to enter the fray. It announced in June that it will build a WTIV for an undisclosed Singapore owner for delivery in the third quarter of 2013.

The new self-propelled, self-elevating offshore installation vessel was made by JHI’S Singapore-based subsidiary JHI Engineering with basic design engineering done by US naval architects Bennett & Associates.

The DP-2 vessel has a longboom 600-tonne crane and is designed to undertake wind turbine installation, repair, construction and maintenance.

With four 95 m legs, the vessel can operate in water depths of more than 60 m, and it is understood the vessel is being developed with Chinese waters in mind.

Cosco Shipyard, meanwhile, has delivered two WTIVs to MPI Offshore and is now building two more for Denmark’s A2Sea. The group’s Nantong and Qidong subsidiaries offer this high-tech ship type.

MPI’s two ships were designed by GustoMSC. Key features on the two MPI vessels include the 1,000-tonne capacity main crane, plus a 50-tonne capacity auxiliary

other players in the WTIV business. Longyuan-Zhenhua was founded by Longyuan Electrical Power and ZPMC as an engineering procurement company for the offshore

The new breed of purpose-built WTIVs are expensive and most of the engineering focus lies in the jack-up legs crane, accommodation capacity for 112 persons, and an ability to jack up with 6,000 tonnes of cargo onboard. They have a maximum operation depth of 40 m.

Meanwhile, the A2Sea ships are coming along, with one to deliver this year and another in 2014. One boasts a crane capacity of 900 tons and the other has an 800-ton capacity crane.

With an overall length of 132 m, a breadth of 39 m the larger of the two ships, costing $155m, is capable of carrying 60 staff as well as eight to ten complete wind turbines, while the smaller ship can carry eight turbines.

Jiangsu Longyuan-Zhenhua Engineering and Jiangsu Hantong Shipyard are the two

wind industry. ZPMC has delivered one wind turbine installation vessel in tidal areas and is building another one for a deeper water location.

Hantong Shipyard, meanwhile, also built some smaller wind turbine installation ships a number of years ago but has none of this ship type on its orderbook at present.

Classification society Bureau Veritas has recently published guidance for designers and builders of wind farm service ships.

Maxime Pachot, offshore service vessel manager at Bureau Veritas, says: “These vessels have to move people quickly in rough offshore sea conditions, transferring maintenance personnel from shore or mother ships onto turbines.”

The difficulties involved in WTIV construction are outlined by Jackie Yu, md of consultancy Phoenix Offshore China. “It’s just like jack-up barges but self-propelled,” he explains, adding: “For the hull, high strength steel welding is the main thing to focus on.”

LR’s Whillock expands on the subject. “The new breed of purpose-built WTIVs are expensive and most of the engineering focus lies in the jack-up legs, crane lifting appliances and associated loads and ensuring that deck space is optimised,” he says.

“These ships require higher specification steels than would be used in conventional ships - these steels are used in the leg systems and other areas where high stresses and loads are seen.”

“Specialist knowhow from offshore oil and gas will be required to develop, design and analyse the capabilities of such units,” urges GL’s vice president Rasmus Stute. “By combining the oil and gas knowledge with the requirements from the renewables industry, an optimum solution between cost and availability can be found.”

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Finance ■ ■ ■

Tapping funds Guangzhou correspondent Wang Fanglei and Jason Jiang in Dalian look at the latest ship finance developments from across the country In July, the Bank of Communications (BOCOM) Finance Leasing Company handled its first finance leasing deal as part of the Yangshan port bonded registry project. The bank leased out RMB146m for Shanghai Danyang Shipping’s Guan Hai Chao Yang vessel.

Hanhui Ship Leasing Co, a special purpose vessel (SPV) company set up in Yangshan port by BOCOM Finance Leasing, bought the Hong Kongflagged vessel Chao Yang, cancelled its Hong Kong registry and registered it again in Yangshan port. Meanwhile, it changed its name to Guan Hai Chao Yang, then it was leased to Shanghai Danyang Shipping, an SPV set up in Yangshan by Guanhai Shipping, under a finance lease deal. Danyang Shipping plans to sublease the vessel overseas for international shipping.

In December 2011, the Ministry of Transport agreed to make Yangshan port a new ship registry port. Companies registered in Yangshan Bonded Port Area will enjoy a bonded ship registry service.

“The finance leasing deal of the Guan Hai Chao Yang vessel reflects a breakthrough in the domestic ship registry system, and it will bring more overseas registered ships of Chinese companies to come back to register at Yangshan port,” says Chen Min, general manager of BOCOM Finance Leasing.

Also of note in Shanghai is a trial program started in mid-August designed to help the nation’s beleaguered shipowners.

Under the new policy by the Ministry of Transport, ships leased by shipping companies from financing firms could be regarded as part of the owner’s own fleet upon agreement

between the two sides and on condition paid rents reach certain levels. That means rented vessels could receive the same fiscal subsidies as those owned by shipping firms and be exempted from some transaction fees.

“This policy is a kind of exploration,” said a government statement. “This (policy) will ease capital pressure, help shipping companies better utilise existing capacity and cope with the grim situation in today’s shipping market,” the statement said.

the service industries, including the water transport sector.

“Based on the current results of this tax reform in Shanghai, we cannot see any benefits to the shipping industry. The tax that the shipping industry needs to pay is even higher than before,” warns Chen.

Elsewhere, in September the policy bank, China Development Bank, is establishing a ship finance centre in Dalian. Dalian Port has also been approved to provide

The competitiveness of a shipping hub doesn’t just come from port throughput numbers Watching developments in Shanghai closely is Deng Mincong, secretary general of the Guangdong Shipowners’ Association. He notes that most of his members are in the red at the moment, especially those engaged in coal transport.

On November 1 this year, Guangdong will become another trial place for value added tax refunds for those in

finance in the city while China Ship Fund and a number of Chinese banks with shipping portfolios have set up in the Liaoning city making it a nascent ship finance hub.

Up and down the coastline there are now plenty of shipping exchanges – Dalian, Xiamen, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Qingdao are among the cities with these services. Increasingly

these are alternative conduits for financing.

Pang Zongyu, president of the 2009-founded Qingdao Shipping Exchange, explains that highend services like ship finance, ship industry funds and vessel pricing are still in their infancy in the Shandong city, but plans are afoot to grow this segment.

“Currently our ship finance service is an important part that we want to grow,” Pang says. “We help owners find financing companies or institutes and industry funds. We are trying to enlarge the business to form a comprehensive service portfolio. Of course, this really needs the support of the government and relevant authorities.”

Qingdao, like many other big coastal cities in the country is pushing for maritime hub status, and Pang is smart enough to note: “The competitiveness of a shipping hub doesn’t just come from port throughput numbers.”

In a general downbeat assessment Pang reckons, “The shipping market will continue to be depressed this year, and I think it won’t recover until 2016.”

Sinoship AUTUMN 2012

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Commodities ■ ■ ■

HEAVY LOAD More than half the timber shipped globally is sent to China

Lumbering giant Dalian correspondent Mark Downing provides details on China’s timber trades In her bestselling new book, Winner Take All: China’s Race for Resources and What It Means for the World, economist Dambisa Moyo describes the scale of China’s campaign to secure such commodities as metals, minerals, food and timber as being amongst the biggest in history. Both China’s statecontrolled and privately owned resource companies have been locking up foreign assets worldwide for years as part of a “going out” strategy to ensure that basic material needs are met for decades to come.

Take for instance the multibillion-dollar investment fund recently set up by China’s sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corp and the state-backed Russian Direct Investment Fund, with assets that may balloon to $4bn by the end of next year. The venture’s first anticipated investment of $200m is into one of Russia’s largest forestry firms, which exports a substantial amount to China.

When it comes to the trade of wood, China has rapidly risen to become one of the world’s major players. According to Dr William Laurence, a professor at James Cook University in Australia, more than half the timber shipped globally is sent to China — making it the world’s largest importer of wood and related products — a third of which is ultimately processed and then exported predominantly as furniture,

needs, despite ambitious national reforestation program programs enacted to expand the proportion of forested land for both environmental and economic objectives. Since 1992, China’s State Forestry Administration has proclaimed that China’s total forest area has increased from 134m to 195m hectares. This net gain of 60m hectares distinguishes China with the most man-made forests in the world, although

China’s per capita forested area is only about one-fifth of the world’s average plywood and flooring. Most is destined for Europe, the US and Japan, earning China the title “wood workshop for the world” according to Forest Trends, a Washington-based think tank.

Despite China’s size, its per capita forested area is only about one-fifth of the world’s average such that it can only cover a portion of domestic

much of it at a relatively young age and often produced by squandered top-down central government forestry schemes resulting in millions of hectares of inferior quality.

Before China’s recent economic slowdown beginning late last year, the International Wood Markets Group estimated China’s total wood demand

would grow from 250m to 350m cu m by 2015, possibly reaching 450m cu m in 2020. The projected imports to make up for the domestic supply deficit was expected to reach 150m cu m in 2015 — greater than the entire Canadian timber harvest in 2008 and 2009 — and scale up to 200m cu m by 2020.

Many nations in the Asia Pacific region and Africa export the bulk of their timber to China. As of the first quarter of 2012, the only major log exporters to China to show year-over-year increase was the Pacific North West (Canada and the US), up four fold in two years to reach 21% market share, with New Zealand at 25% and most of the balance made up by Russia. The neighboring south — Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia — provide the majority of wood chips to feed China’s burgeoning pulp industry.

With China’s economic slowdown, however, the pace of investment in infrastructure and housing is now the weakest in nearly a decade. China’s wood product trade has been significantly tempered by uncertainty about China’s real estate bubble haunted by 60m vacant “ghost” condos and villas, waning economic stimulus packages and increased environmental monitoring and regulation.

Despite the downturn, many expect imports to trend upward long-term. Based on the McKinsey Global Institute’s forecast that China’s urban population will grow by 350m people between 2005 and 2025, the Wood Markets’ Global Wood Products Conference last year estimated a resulting demand of 3.7bn sq m of new floor space in 5m new buildings — potentially 50,000 of which would be skyscrapers.

In a decade, China moved from a being seventh up to the top worldwide in total value of forest product imports. What will the next decade bring? For one thing, expect more timber megadeals to be inked.

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■ ■ ■ LOGISTICS

Panda’s aggressive welcome FedEx and UPS are looking to muscle in on the domestic express business. They will not find it easy, reports Jason Jiang Although by no means a done deal, the likely approval by authorities to grant FedEx Corporation and United Parcel Service (UPS) domestic business licenses is something that has local express operators on edge.

Nevertheless, the American pair are unlikely to crack this market as easily as they have most other global destinations.

Buoyed by the fast development of e-commence in China, the express market has been maintaining a growth of more than 20% annually over the past five years, having doubled in size between 2006 and 2010 and actually surpassing 30% growth last year. The State Post Bureau of China expects the country’s express industry to expand steadily in the next four years and have RMB143bn in annual sales by 2015.

The ambitions of FedEx and UPS will be met by far more competition than just three years ago with the likes of SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda and Shentong 16

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Express all gearing up for a big fight for market share.

Both FedEx and UPS actually started domestic express deliveries in China before but in 2009 China revised its postal laws, forcing foreign companies to apply for new permits if they wanted to be in the domestic market.

Unlike FedEx and UPS, Germany’s DHL announced it was quitting the domestic express business in 2011 and sold all its Chinese express subsidiaries to Uni-top Industries.

However, the European express giant still sees China as an important hub for its global network. It launched its $175m North Asia hub as well as the biggest Asia express hub in Shanghai this July.

FedEx wants to operate express businesses in eight large Chinese cities, including Shanghai, Guangzhou and Hangzhou. UPS, meanwhile, has applied to operate in five cities, including Xi’an and

Shanghai. Beijing is not on either company’s list.

“This will bring a new round of consolidation in China’s express industry,” says Zhou Da, an official from China Southern Cargo.

Domestic players Shenzhen-headquartered SF Express, often referred to as China’s FedEx, is the most aggressive player in the sector with seven freighters at present and a planned fleet of 25 planes by 2015 capable of carrying 1.5m tons of cargo with the aim of controlling fully one quarter of China’s air cargo business by then.

Following SF Express’s tail, another Chinese domestic express company, YTO Express has started dedicated freighter services in June. YTO Express has brought in three B737-300 freighters on a long-term charter contract. The freighters will be mainly deployed on major markets in south, east and north China.

“We mainly relied on wheels before, now we have wings,”

Yu Weijiao, president of YTO Express says. “Freighters greatly optimise our service and improve our efficiency. We plan to form a fleet of 20 freighters in the next ten years,” Yu adds.

Another big name Chinese operator Shentong Express has expanded its operations to Hong Kong, and it is expanding into Taiwan and Macau this year.

“FedEx and UPS won’t bring too much pressure to domestic express companies in the short term. Their network scale in China is not big enough to compete with domestic companies at present,” says Xia Zubin, marketing director of Shentong Express.

The rise of these private express firms even threatens state-owned giant China Postal Express, the largest Chinese firm in the domestic delivery market.

The group has seen its domestic market share by volume fall to less than a third last year from nearly 60% in 2006.

CRUISE ■ ■ ■

TIP OF THE ICEBERG Blue Star’s Titanic II order is likely the first of many cruiseship orders in China

Ready the champagne Details emerge of the first pair of Chinese-built cruiseships, writes Katherine Si Blink and you miss it. China’s stunningly fast climb up the technology ranks in shipbuilding has received the cherry on the icing this summer with contracts to construct debut cruiseships.

Previously the preserve of Europe’s ailing shipbuilding industry, many had dismissed China’s chances of building this most high-spec of ship type this decade, pointing instead to Japan (where Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has been Asia’s sole cruiseship builder) and Korea instead.

Taking maximum media spotlight has been Australian mining tycoon Clive Palmer who this summer released preliminary plans and drawings for the Titanic II project (pictured) devised by international ship design and engineering company, Finnish-based Deltamarin.

The ship will be built at China’s CSC Jinling Shipyard.

The nine decks complete with first, second and third class, officer and crew accommodation now come with the insertion of a new, all-important safety deck.

“These plans underline the

“To ensure Titanic II is compliant with all current safety and construction regulations, a new safety deck has been inserted between D and C decks and will feature proper lifeboats, safety

To ensure Titanic II is compliant with all current safety and construction regulations, a new safety deck has been inserted commitment and progression Blue Star Line has for the Titanic II project,” Palmer said. Palmer has resurrected the famous brand, Blue Star, that owned the Titanic a century ago.

Palmer said from deck D upwards Deltamarin have managed to keep the public rooms, passenger stairs, cabins and other features in similar locations as in the original ship.

chutes or slides as well as new common public rooms.

“New escape stairs, service elevators, air conditioning room and similar functions have also been added and the inclusions of main fire zones have been designed so that they have minimum disturbance on public rooms.

“G deck has also been redesigned to now feature crew accommodation, laundry, stores

and machinery.”

Construction is set to start next year. The first voyage remains set for late 2016, with the intention for Titanic II to sail from China to the UK before her maiden passenger voyage retracing its original journey, hopefully minus the unintended premature ending. Palmer has hinted at more cruiseship orders to come.

At around the same time as the unveiling of the plans for Titanic II China’s Shan Hai Shu Group and Xiamen International Cruise signed a contract for China’s first self-built cruiseship to be constructed at Xiamen Shipbuilding Industry.

The 100,000 gt China Xiamen ship will hit the water in October 2018 and will cost around $488m and be able to carry 2,000 passengers.

The giant cruiseship will be designed in a Chinese style, making it the first of its kind in the world.

Apart from Chinese-style decoration inside the cabins, Chinese food will be served in eight out of the nine dining rooms on the ship.

“With our own cruise liner, it will be easier to design cruise routes and develop our own tourism products,” said Huang Ju, chief operational officer of the subsidiary of Shan Hai Shu. “The cruise industry gives Xiamen’s struggling shipbuilders a good chance to move up the industry value chain by focusing on building luxury cruiseships,” Chen Yumin, an official with Xiamen Shipbuilding Industry, said.

Take your eyes off the world’s fastest emerging cruise market again and no doubt the nascent orderbook will have doubled.

Launching at Cruise Shipping Miami

For advertising details contact grant@asiashippingmedia.com Sinoship AUTUMN 2012

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PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Keeping it in the family C C Hsu on the importance of longevity in playing the markets

Family business is good for continuity and to remember how bad things can get

H

eaven help you if you are from the sales department at any shipyard pitching Chih-Chien Hsu a newbuild or two. The Taiwanese chairman of both private Eddie Steamship and dual-listed Courage Marine has a war chest ready to make the most of the cheap bulker prices on offer, but he has bided his time longer than just about all his compatriot owners, waiting for prices to head further south.

“Taiwanese owners are very canny,” says one Hong Kong shipbroker, “They tend to hold out till right near the bottom of the newbuild price cycle.”

For Hsu, his aim is to catch the metaphorical price ball millimetres from the ground before it bounces.

SinoShip caught up with Hsu twice in recent months – in Shanghai and Athens – and both times he emphasises the importance of longevity and being in a family business.

“Because shipowning is volatile,” Hsu says, “it is good to be in a family business for continuity and to remember how bad things can get.”

Hsu’s family business can trace its history back 85 years.

“We have been dealing with shipping banks for generations. The person in charge of ship finance changes every four or five years and so sometimes they do not even go through one complete cycle,” notes Hsu. In his 32 years in the business Hsu experienced the horrendous five-year slump of the mid-’80s, the sensational record bulk boom

from 2003 to 2008 and plenty of other smaller cycles too.

“If you have not been in the business continually or heard such stories,” says Hsu, “I think it is quite hard to imagine that [the Baltic Dry Index] can drop from 11,800 to 640 in a matter of two months or that a shipping depression can last from 1981/’82 to 1987. I often think how am I going to be able to explain such things to my children, it is impossible, beyond imagination.”

Because of his experience of previous depressions, both Courage and Eddie have always kept their debt levels low. Indeed, Hsu recalls how repeatedly at AGMs in 2007 and 2008 a number of shareholders berated him for not investing in more ships. The same shareholders stood up at this year’s AGM and thanked him for holding off.

For most of the past decade both Eddie and Courage have had around 10 bulkers each of all sizes from handies to capes. This has dropped to just three in each company as Hsu has sold plenty of ships for scrap.

He explains: “Recently because demolition prices have been extremely high and newbuild prices have been plunging and still going lower we think this is a great time to sell our old ships at very high prices and then possibly acquiring newbuildings at possibly really almost historic low prices.”

Just how low can these newbuild prices go? More than 50% off their peak will not do for Hsu. A capesize newbuilding in 2008 was

$100m, soon after Lehman Brothers it plunged very quickly to about $55m, still not low enough for Hsu to bite. His yardstick is a series of capes built by CSBC for U-Ming Marine Transport around the dawn of the new millennium for around $33m.

When Hsu gives this example to today’s beleaguered shipyard executive, the salesman invariably says today’s prices cannot be compared with a decade ago as steel plate, main engines and labour prices have all gone up.

“They always emphasise that current prices are near break-even for them so how can we expect prices to go down further. My immediate response is that where is there a law that guarantees shipyards a profit just as where is there a law that guarantees shipowners a profit.”

Recently newbuild prices are approaching rock bottom, Hsu admits, noting how Jinhaiwan had six resale capes at $36.5m each.

When considerading the CSBC newbuilds from ten years ago were 149,000dwt and the Jinhaiwan ships are 176,000dwt, “you would say this is just about the same as the CSBC ones price-wise”.

With this in mind, expect Taiwan’s top price juggler to unscrew his favoured contract-signing pen soon.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

Courage/Eddie Eddie Steamship is the Hsus’ private shipowning vehicle whose history dates back 85 years, while Courage Marine was founded in 2000 and is listed in Singapore and Hong Kong. Scrapped many ships this year and will soon order a rash of newbuilds. Bought a secondhand cape for $6.65m in August.

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Sept. 19th-21st, 2012

Xiamen, China

Sharing an Orderly Market

Hotline COSCO Ms.Jiang Yanni Tel: +86(0)10 66492676 COSCO Ms. He Yuemeng Tel: +86(0)10 66492977 JOC Mr. Peter Tirshwell Tel: +1973-776-7822 Maritime China Ms. Yao Yaping Tel: +86 (0) 10 64616218 Organisers:

Honorary Organisers:

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Goodbye volatility, hello placidity Kenneth Koo tells SinoShip of his relief that the downturn has stopped investors taking over the heart and soul of shipping

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or Kenneth Koo, the boss of Tai Chong Cheang Steamship (TCC), the downturn has provided some solace. Like after a sharp rain where birds flock to pick out insects from the sodden ground shipping’s malaise has at least weeded out many of the speculators that caused the troubles in the first place.

Koo has been one of the most vociferous shipowners to speak out against the arrival of so many investors without any shipping background into the industry.

He has for a long time deplored the arrival of so much “hot money” into the industry. “When people started saying shipping was sexy that was when banks came in, IPOs shot up,” he tells SinoShip.

Now as many of the recent converts to shipping are forced out of the sector the time has come for the various constituent bodies that make up the industry to come together to make sure that these people do not cause the same carnage again, Koo urges.

“Our industry needs to raise its entry

barriers,” Koo says, adding: “That is the single biggest cause of the downturn today.”

Noting how there has been a total collapse of entry barriers, Koo says investors buy ships like real estate and hand them over to managers.

“Shipping has become commoditised and the ship has literally become an afterthought,” he says.

“No one talks about the hardware anymore. No one talks about the assets anymore.

The whole meaning of our industry has been lost over the past years,” laments Koo. The Hong Kong owner points the finger at classification societies as another bringer of the bad times.

“They needed to be more critical of all the new yards coming out then the crisis would not be too bad,” he reckons.

Classification societies are “guardians” of this entry barrier, he says, “and they need to enforce it. It makes it very difficult for us traditional owners who are very selective when choosing yards.”

Our industry needs to raise its entry barriers, that is the single biggest cause of the downturn today

The solution, according to Koo, is to bring owners, banks, charterers, P&I Clubs and class societies together to nail down a set of entry barriers.

While admitting that this downturn is “unprecedented” in its severity Koo is keeping an even keel at TCC. “For us we are doing what we have been doing for three generations,” says the 52-year-old, whose company can trace its roots back to 1917, “namely being conservative, mindful of our limits and doing the tried and true, typical of Hong Kong owners really.

“Whether the market has been good or bad Hong Kong owners are good at keeping long term relationships going,” says Koo, explaining that local owners have never “gone for broke”, chartering instead at rates that keep both parties happy.

“What we have been pushing for is inhouse ‘top of mind’ strategy,” Koo says, “so that charterers think of us first when they have cargo.”

Another facet typical of Hong Kong owners is to rejuvenate fleets during downturns and this is certainly something TCC will be doing in the coming months, taking advantage of the low prices.

The TCC fleet currently consists of ten capesizes and one panamax on the dry bulk side and three aframaxes and one VLCC on the tanker front.

“We are doing a lot with oil majors, so as well as rejuvenation we will expand our tanker fleet from four to six and then see what comes up on the horizon,” Koo reveals.

Aframaxes will be the additions, Koo says, as they are the “true workhorses of the tanker industry” and there are less on order of this ship type and TCC has 20 years of aframax trading history behind it.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

TCC Group Founded in Shanghai in 1917 as Tai Chong Hsiang Company, a customs brokerage firm. Became an owner in the following decade. Name of firm became Tai Chong Cheang Steamship. The company was resurrected in Hong Kong in 1983. Fleet has 11 bulkers and four tankers at present with two more aframaxes set to be ordered soon. Boss is Kenneth Koo, the third generation running one of Hong Kong’s best-known shipping lines.

Sinoship AUTUMN 2012

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■ ■ ■ Profile

LISTEN UP Wei Jiafu is recognised as one of the best orators in the industry

On the global stage As he prepares for another ‘shipping Davos’, SinoShip profiles the inspiring Captain Wei Jiafu, Cosco’s great helmsman

S

tep into the Beijing office of Captain Wei Jiafu and it is immediately apparent that you are in the presence of someone powerful. Adorned on the walls are countless photos of the Cosco boss alongside the leading politicians of the world from the past 20 years while any available mantelpiece is stuffed full of awards, accolades and commemorative trophies.

As he prepares to step down as the boss of China’s largest shipping conglomerate, Cosco Group, Wei can reflect on a glittering career that has propelled him to the forefront of the industry. His replacement will be Ma Zehua, a man who joined Cosco in 1977 and, like Wei, held many senior positions at home and overseas before a stint at China Shipping. He became chief executive of Cosco’s Hong Kong-listed flagship China COSCO Holdings last year.

Wei’s career path has in many ways been ahead of the curve of China’s own development and ‘going out’ strategy.

Born in 1950 in Jiangsu province, Wei attended Dalian Maritime University and Tianjin University before joining the staterun behemoth Cosco in the late 1960s as a ship’s radio officer. At sea he rose through the ranks to become a captain before returning ashore and taking a variety of executive roles both at home and overseas.

Between 1992 and 1998 Wei rose to become general manager of the ChineseTanzanian Joint Shipping Co, Cosco Tianjin, and Cosco Bulk Carrier. He oversaw the flotation of Cosco (Singapore) Ltd, the firm’s

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first venture into the international capital markets while president there from 1993 to 1995 and became president and ceo of the whole group in 1998. Last year, his role changed to become chairman of the board.

Wei’s appetite for international expansion and making the company a more nimble market player with listings of more than half of all the subsidiaries will likely be his greatest legacy. Speaking to SinoShip’s editor a number of years ago, Wei said: “Moving Cosco from being a state-owned entity to a diverse set of listed vehicles is my proudest achievement.” Multiple listings in Singapore, Hong Kong and Shanghai are testament to this evolution.

Wei often acted as an ambassador for the nation Under Wei’s leadership the group diversified into air and land logistics, shipbuilding and terminal operations that span the globe.

Wei often acted as an ambassador for the nation, striking up relations with presidents of countries. His dealings with the US are among his greatest achievements.

Previously Cosco had struggled to enter the market thanks to the Federal Maritime Commission listing it as a controlled carrier. Wei made his big US breakthrough 11 years ago by signing a joint venture with struggling Boston port. Since then the carrier has become a huge player on the

transpacific, something that has not gone unnoticed by officials; a couple of years ago the US House of Representatives for the first time honoured a Chinese citizen, Wei, as a ‘People’s Ambassador of the United States’.

Cosco is now the largest employer in the US, according to Congressman Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts.

Wei is also well known as one of the best, most electrifying speakers in the industry.

When he stands on stage, people listen.

His own event that he created in 2004, the World Shipping (China) Summit, has rightfully earned the sobriquet the Davos of shipping – where the ceos of the world’s top shipping companies gather annually - and will likely this September in Xiamen prove to be a another big show for the most powerful man in shipping.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

Cosco Founded in 1961, China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (Cosco) is the world’s second largest shipping company with more than 800 ships. Diverse holdings include boxships, tankers, bulkers, shipyards, logistics operations and terminals. State-owned, but with many subsidiaries listed at Asian bourses.

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Wise words of caution Wisdom Marine president Chun-Sheng Cheng’s pragmatic approach as fleet nears 100 vessels

I

f as many (including columnist Max Hong on page 37) predict the dry bulk market becomes a two-tier entity then Chun-Sheng Cheng is doing everything he can to be in the top tier.

Fuel efficiency is the new mantra, and by extension average fleet ages will soon likely define earnings potential for the global bulker fleet in this new cash-tight operating environment the industry finds itself in for the foreseeable future.

Cheng, the president of Wisdom Marine, presides over a fleet of some 80 vessels as of mid-July equating to 2.59m dwt and an average age of just 6.29 years.

What’s more with three more ships to deliver this year and a further 19 through to 2015 the average age will come down further. Moreover, a glance at its fleet list shows there are six older ships due to be disposed of shortly.

Wisdom’s fleet is made up of a mix of bulkers of all sizes plus some multipurpose ships and even a few roros. A decent spread of ship types has always been an

important foundation of Wisdom right from its founding 13 years ago.

“In the short term,” Cheng says, “our newbuilding orders will be gradually completed. Besides expanding fleet size, we will also strengthen the diversification of the fleet and the operational efficiency.

In around two or three years, our fleet will reach 100 ships, which is an important marker for our fleet development.”

Cheng is quick to elaborate that this fleet buildup is not with standard vessel types, but with an accent on energy saving designs.

“Through developing up-to-the-minute and highest quality ship types, we expect to further improve our fleet operational efficiency and have better coordination with our business partners,” says Cheng.

Cheng reckons the markets will not pick up this year, and it is not until the latter half of 2013 before we can expect business conditions to improve, with capesizes suffering the most from overcapacity.

“Overinvestment and market players

Overinvestment and market players of different quality are big reasons for this wave of depression

of different quality are big reasons for this wave of depression, so we must eliminate speculators through market mechanisms and chase the ship operators and shipyards who are only after short term benefits out of the market,” Cheng suggests.

For Wisdom, a strong believer in long term charters over spot deals, financial stability is far more important – and tenable – than being an overnight sensation.

As it builds towards its century of ships Cheng stresses Wisdom will “focus on long term and steady partner relationships”.

NEED TO KNOW

NEED TO KNOW Wisdom Marine Wisdom Marine was set up in 1999 and listed in Taipei in 2010. One of the biggest bulk carrier operators in Taiwan Wisdom has a fleet of 80 ships (2.59m dwt) at present with an average age of six years – 66 are owned, nine on bareboat hire purchase and five under management.

Sinoship AUTUMN 2012

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Bright future Exclusive extracts from SinoShip’s recent White Paper on LNG

C

hina will need up to 60 new liquefied natural gas carriers between now and 2020 to meet energy goals set out in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. There will be a minimum of five Chinese shipyards building these high spec vessels in the coming years, up from the current one, Hudong-Zhonghua. The number of terminals in China will jump to 14 from the current five in operation at the moment with a further 10 due for consideration after 2016 depending on demand.

With the global LNG fleet also set to spike the face of LNG shipping will change dramatically with a flourishing spot market for the first time.

The above statistics are the main findings from SinoShip’s recent White Paper on LNG. Much of the content came from the June SinoShip LNG Business Breakfast, sponsored by Standard Chartered and Watson, Farley & Williams.

Natural gas consumption in China was 131.7bn cu m in 2011, more than five times up from the 2000 figure of 24.5bn cu m.

However, consumption levels are predicted to soar even higher to reach 375bn cu m by 2020, according to a recent report by energy industry analysis firm GlobalData.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) states China will double its natural gas consumption over the next five years, becoming the third largest importer.

China has substantial natural gas reserves of its own, but demand has already outstripped production, making imports essential. Natural gas consumption overtook domestic production since 2007.

The country is expected to increase natural gas imports from 28.1bn cu m in 2011 to an estimated 77bn cu m a year by 2020.

William Sember, vice president of global gas development for US classification society, American Bureau of Shipping (ABS), says, “China is the leader in demand for LNG. China is showing the most growth.”

By the end of 2011, five LNG terminals were operating in China with a total re-gasification capacity of approximately 1trn cu ft. This will climb to 2.8trn cu ft by the end of 2016 at an annual average growth rate of 19.7%, due to the introduction of a further nine terminals.

ABS’s Sember maintains newbuild prices

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will go up as spot rates for LNG ships have more than doubled since the end of last year to around $140,000 a day.

ABS statistics show as of the end of May there were 372 LNG ships afloat with another 68 on order.

“By 2020 there will need to be another 140 built with as many as 60 to be built in China,” says Sember.

Hudong-Zhonghua leads the way Shanghai’s Hudong-Zhonghua delivered the nation’s first LNG carrier, Dapeng Sun, in April 2008.

It was delivered late and had a number of technical issues in its first months of operations.

Since then however the yard has become far better at building these technically demanding ships. The yard has built and delivered five 147,000 cu m LNG carriers with GTT No. 96 membrane containment systems to date and has a sixth vessel of similar size under construction for delivery later this year.

In July 2011 Hudong-Zhonghua signed deals worth $880m to build four LNG carriers for joint venture firms formed by Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) and China Shipping Development. Each of the 172,000 cu m LNG carriers will transport ExxonMobil LNG from Australia and Papua New Guinea to China.

MOL is sending 50 technicians to the yard and ExxonMobil another 30 to help the construction of these ships.

China Shipping Development agreed to fund 30% of the cost of the latest order, with the balance coming from MOL. The four LNG carriers are expected to be delivered between 2015 and 2016.

George Wang, senior managing principal engineer at ABS, notes: “Hudong’s first set of LNG ships was a collective effort for the design. This current series is developed mostly by themselves.”

Both the first and second set of ships Hudong is involved in use the comparatively old propulsion technology of a low speed propulsion system with a reliquefaction plant. Koreans, the market leaders in LNG ship construction, increasingly use dual fuel diesel (DFD) engines.

“The next batch of LNG ships in China will probably be DFD,” says Wang.

CHINA FIRST Dapeng Sun, the nation’s first gas carrier

Ready to join the fray Hudong-Zhonghua is set to be joined by at least four other Chinese shipyards in LNG construction soon.

Three Chinese shipbuilders have received pre-qualification documentation for at least two 170,000 cu m LNG carrier newbuildings, which will be built in China in partnership with BG Group.

Hudong-Zhonghua, Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co (DSIC) and Nantong Cosco KHI Ship Engineering (NACKS) have been invited to bid for the work. No delivery schedule has been given at this stage.

The ships are expected to be owned jointly by UK-listed BG, CNOOC Energy Technology & Services and the CoscoChina Merchants joint venture China LNG Shipping (Holdings) Co (CLNG).

SinoShip understands DSIC has emerged as the favourite to win this contract.

Since 2002 DSIC has developed many different LNG ship designs. It has 138k, 150k, 170k, 210k and 279k cu m designs incorporating GTT No. 96 membrane containment systems as well as a 140,000 cu m Moss type design.

Its 294.5m long, 170,000 cu m design incorporates dual-fuel diesel engines.

Going forward there is expected to be a huge build up of smaller LNG ships to serve regional and coastal trades, and here too DSIC has plenty of designs on the table. It has a series of ships with cylindrical type tanks ranging in capacity from 2,500 cu m to 10,000 cu m with two to three cargo holds. On top of this it has also developed

LNG ■ ■ ■

ships with bilobe tanks ranging in size from 8,000 to 30,000 cu m with two to four cargo holds.

Meanwhile, NACKS — a joint venture between Cosco and Japan’s Kawasaki Heavy Industries — is bucking the trend

Rise of the spot market With the global LNG fleet set to spike the face of LNG shipping will change dramatically with a flourishing spot market for the first time. The traditional model of long-term (20- to 25-year) contracts is evolving. The spot market occupied just 10% of the LNG shipping market three years ago, it now stands at 30% and rising.

David Wu, president of offshore specialist Grenland Group Asia, states that fully 80% of the LNG newbuilds on order in Korea at the moment are being built on speculation.

“The US is exporting now — trading is changing — the spot market is going to grow and grow,” Wu says.

“The spot market grew fast after the Japanese earthquake, especially now more and more small- and medium-sized LNG ships will come out for regional trade, for coastal trade and that will be for the spot market,” Wu says.

Quite so, concurs ABS’s George Wang, saying: “We see lots more small LNG ships

by offering just Moss type LNG carriers.

Kawasaki Heavy in Japan has a long history of building mid-sized Moss type LNG carriers. Size offerings from NACKS include 145,000 and 170,00 cu m.

Then there is Jiangsu Rongsheng Heavy

on the horizon boosting regional trade and changing dynamics.”

CNOOC has recently commissioned state builder CSSC to design a small-sized LNG ship for coastal trade and the energy giant is expected to order up to 30 of these ships soon.

Muses Ben Zhang from Shanghai consultants Accord Marine: “Back in the ’80s few people thought VLCCs had a spot future. But with 50 to 60 extra LNG ships needed for China alone surely there is going to be a healthy spot market?”

Bankers are taken aback by this development.

“Speculative LNG builds are very challenging,” says Abhishek Pandey, director, shipping finance at Standard Chartered.

“Bankers have reservations on short contracts. As long as you are not playing the spot market, your costs are fixed, the only variable being interest rates. When you go on spec and play the high risk game it takes a lot of skill.”

Watson, Farley & Williams’ Madeline Leong admits that the spot market is

Industries, the country’s largest private shipbuilder.

“Rongsheng has its own ideas and designs. ABS started a joint development with them last year. They are focusing on GTT No. 96 membrane designs,” says ABS’ Wang. Dual fuel diesel engines are incorporated into Rongsheng’s designs which include 170,000 and 200,000 cu m capacity blueprints.

Rongsheng in June submitted bids along with DSIC and ever-present Hudong-Zhonghua a for a series of up to six 170,000 cu m ships for Sinopec and China Shipping Development Co (CSDC).

Finally, this July Nantong Mingde Heavy Industry signed a strategic agreement with US-based Cambridge Energy Group, to jointly develop LNG vessels and logistics.

According to the agreement, the two groups will jointly develop and build five plus four options of 140,000 cu m LNG vessels and about ten to twelve 20,000 cu m to 40,000 cu m LNG vessels and two FLNGs with an annual capacity of 2m tons each.

“This is a new breakthrough and challenge to Mingde Heavy Industry,” said Ji Fenghua, president of Mingde Heavy Industry.

growing but owners will find financing very difficult.

“If you are moving from long term — ie project financing — to spot then you have to change the project financing of today.

You can’t have the best of both worlds. If you want to build a speculative LNG ship with strong spot rates you should provide a corporate guarantee or more exotic structures such as a profit share. Sale and leaseback of LNG vessels by banks might be possible in the future. It is a paradigm shift in the spot market from 10 to 30% so banking will have to move too, there’ll need to be an evolvement of banking structures.

FPSOs have a risk-sharing contract and this could be something for LNG,” suggests Standard Chartered’s Pandey.

“If [the spot market] does grow then financiers will have to treat it like other shipping sectors whereby it is cyclical,” notes Leong.

If you would like a copy of SinoShip’s 11-page LNG White Paper email sam@asiashippingmedia.com

Sinoship AUTUMN 2012

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Weighted in China’s favour SinoShip polls the leading international maritime law firms on the growing importance of China

C

hina’s rise in the world of shipping has naturally brought about a change in legal services. All the major international law firms are now established in at least one location in China, some even have three offices.

There’s also a trend towards the use of Chinese law governed documents and arbitration.

“The interesting aspect from our point of view,” says Ince and Co’s Peter Murray, “is that Chinese law is already up-to-date and ready to be put into practice. Acceptance by overseas parties is a combination of commercial reality and also the realisation that PRC maritime law is not a world apart from the maritime laws of other advanced economies.”

Nevertheless, English, Hong Kong and Singapore laws will always retain their relevance in the sphere of shipping, energy, insurance and international trade, maintains Ik Wei Chong from Clyde & Co. “Interestingly, Singapore law and arbitration is increasingly gaining ground over English law or London arbitration as a compromise jurisdiction between international parties,” says Fuzet Farid from

26

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Malaysia’s Messrs Fuzet Farid.

When it comes to dispute resolution London is still the number one venue, says Wikborg Rein’s Geir Sviggum, but with Asia rising in world dominance Singapore and Hong Kong have strengthened their position as serious competitors to London. “Chinese clients tend to favour Hong Kong due to its proximity to home,” says the Norwegian lawyer.

Acceptance by overseas parties is commercial reality Clyde’s Chong notes that Chinese maritime courts and arbitration institutions such as the China International Economic and Trade Arbitration Commission (CIETAC) and the China Maritime Arbitration Commission (CMAC) are now very sophisticated in their approach and are becoming “rather popular for resolving disputes with a Chinese element”.

Among the lawyers polled for this article everyone conceded that the use

of the PRC flag and PRC ship mortgages was slow in growth terms.

“Of course the cabotage rule dictates PRC flag for domestic carriage,” explains Ince’s Murray, “but it would be good to see the PRC flag used more often for ships trading worldwide.”

All law firms are adept at offering their legal services in Mandarin, an increasingly important service. “What is interesting is that Mandarin does not miss a beat in coping with all the specialist maritime and legal terms,” notes Ince’s Murray. Ince recently opened an office in Beijing and others have eyes on the capital including Wikborg Rein and Clyde.

“With the increase in mandates from Chinese banks and state-owned companies, we are also seriously looking at launching in Beijing in the near future,” says Clyde’s Chong.

Watson, Farley & Williams (WFW), which entered China this year with a Hong Kong office opening, has grand plans globally. “We aim to expand to three times the size we presently are and to have established a larger mainland Chinese based client pool,” says partner Madeline Leong.

Law ■ ■ ■

Small steps in the right direction: RQFII and QFII

C

hina’s tentative steps towards the internationalisation of the renminbi continues with the latest round of tweaks to the rules regulating foreign investors investing in PRC securities.

An RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) may, under rules published in December last year, apply for a quota to use RMB funds raised in Hong Kong, to invest in the PRC securities market. To qualify, an investor must be a Hong Kong subsidiary of a China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) approved PRC fund management or securities company. This is currently the only means by which RMB held outside of China can be invested domestically.

The caution of the Chinese authorities is apparent from the level of control

retained by the regulators policing the rules: an RQFII may have its quota reduced or revoked by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange if it is deemed not to have used its quota in an ‘effective’ way — effective being undefined.

Regulators are, however, drip-feeding

liberalising revisions to the rules. In April, the quota was increased by RMB50bn from an initial RMB20bn. In June, it was reported that insurers will soon be allowed to engage in the RQFII scheme, with insurers such as China Life Insurance and Ping An Insurance who both already have assetmanagement units in Hong Kong, being the first to benefit.

Rules governing Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFIIs), which allow CSRC approved foreign institutional investors to invest in the PRC securities market, have been similarly liberalised. In April, the quota was increased by $50bn from an initial $30bn. In June the qualifying threshold for a QFII was lowered from investors holding a minimum of $5bn with five years experience in asset management to $500m and two years.

ISLE OF MAN. WHERE YOU CAN REGISTER UNDER A FLAG OF EXCELLENCE • Reduce your registry costs • Receive the best in service, advice and support • Realise fewer Port State Control inspections

For further details visit www.iomshipregistry.com

Sinoship AUTUMN 2012

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Hot topic of charter disputes enrages Sam Chambers has been to hundreds of maritime conferences, but never to one as heated as a recent legal

A

contentious session at the recent TradeWinds Shipping China event in Shanghai drew ire that even saw one outraged Chinese delegate call for the expulsion of the session chairman.

With headlines being grabbed by a number of important Chinese players such as 28

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Cosco, Grand China Logistics and latterly Hong Xiang Shipping any discussion on charter party agreements held on Chinese soil was likely to be contentious.

Geir Sviggum, Wikborg Rein’s Shanghai partner and session chair (pictured, standing), said that China’s owners and charterers had a “flexible” approach to contracts. “China’s

non-legal culture crashes with the four corners of a document,” he said. He suggested China was an immature market with operational people lacking experience whereby many contracts were concluded at the top of the market with little or no cash reserves to hedge against a downturn.

Cultural clashes, Sviggum said, meant the

Law ■ ■ ■

Talk before we fight.

Fight before we sue.

Sue before we all go down the tubes

delegates session in Shanghai Chinese tended to stop payments as an “invitation to renegotiate” while Western owners tended not to discuss anything before all outstanding payments have been paid up.

With the Chinese “shy of conflict”, Sviggum said that, “When things get difficult and the need for communication is bigger than ever, the Chinese often shut down communications.”

It is the small private Chinese companies that are the hardest to handle, according to Lambros Babilis, the coo of Greece’s Vafias Group, one of the more high profile companies to pursue Chinese parties for owed monies. “For large companies it is different, they are trying to renegotiate and reverse their initial bad judgement,” he said, adding: “Big Chinese players are often trying to play tough.”

There are indeed “degrees of sophistication” among Chinese companies, concurred Andrew Meadows, an associate with Clyde & Co in Hong Kong. Some do have a head in the sand approach, he admitted. His advice

was to do due diligence on parent companies, be careful what you put in your guarantee and ensure the charterer registers it with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

Meadows did stress that the Chinese were not the only people to be taking advantage of the legal framework.

Quite so, said Tim Huxley, ceo of Hong Kong’s Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings. “Renegotiations are not exclusively Chinese,” he said, listing the likes of Armada, Korea Line and Sanko as prime overseas examples. Yes, there had been a level of arrogance, Huxley said, but this has not been exclusive to the Chinese.

Huxley’s advice was clear. “Managing your counterparty and assessing counterparty risk is a fundamental role for any shipowner.”

Proving popular with Chinese delegates was Ince & Co’s Shanghai partner Gerald Yee. 18 months ago, he said, the China shipping legal climate was like a “petulant teenager” but now the business environment had changed. “They are very savvy businessmen,” he said, noting the way the Chinese were operating was just like the Greeks treated people back in the 1970s and 1980s.

“They are becoming more legalistic, looking more carefully at contracts… China is starting to take a legal culture.”

Rather than Sviggum’s “flexible” description, Yee said Chinese business was like flowing water. “When it hits a rock it flows around it, over it and below it.”

Those in the room had mixed views on renegotiations with Vafias’s Babilis saying they were bad for business, for reputation, for bank relationships and they created volatility.

Others disagreed. Darren Ellis, based in the Beijing office of Stena affiliate Northern Marine, said: “It’s basic common business practice to renegotiate and not just in China.”

Ince’s Yee stressed litigation should always be your last resort, and he reckoned the Chinese had taken this to heart and were willing these days to talk first. Yee came up with a memorable legal mantra for these heady shipping times: Talk before we fight, fight before we sue, sue before we all go down the tubes.

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Flags of the world eye Chinese business Registers are setting up offices across Greater China

W

ith the fleets across Greater China being among the fastest growing in the world it is no wonder shipping registers are making their presence felt across the region, some having up to five offices in the area.

Every nation has different demands from flag states. China’s demands are augmented by the limitations of the PRC flag.

Dick Welsh, director of the Isle of Man Ship Registry, tells SinoShip what he sees as priorities for Chinese owners contemplating flag choices. “Chinese owners with internationally trading fleets are looking for a quality flag,” he says.

Absolutely, concurs Wu Siong Yen, a director at the Kiribati Ship Registry, “Chinese owners are very discerning customers, and they expect convenient and quality services from ship registries.”

Kiribati has a network of four offices in Shanghai, Dalian, Fuzhou and Shenzen, where it is able to provide fast and responsive services on a 24/7 basis.

China, Hong Kong and Taiwan account for about a quarter of the Kiribati Ship Registry’s fleet size today.

selecting a flag,” she adds.

The Isle of Man’s Welsh agrees, saying: “All companies are looking at their options for choice of flag more carefully in this economic climate. They need their flag state to be cost effective and customer focused in order to build a good working relationship.”

Assistance and pragmatism by the flag state is of “paramount importance when things go wrong,” he adds.

The quality of the flag is also very important as shipping companies wish to receive less intervention by port state authorities by aligning themselves with white listed flag states which earn and enjoy low-risk status in some of the world’s port state control regions.

Owners are also looking for simple, transparent registration. “As an open register, we accept all nationalities of ownership; our registration process is quick, easy and user friendly, and we also allow dual/ bareboat registration with other flag states if required,” says Capt Jahangir Hussain, Hong Kong-based regional director for the Bahamas Maritime Authority.

Similarly, the Singapore Registry of Ships, which has bagged hundreds of vessels from Greater China in recent years, enables

The Chinese want to compete in the same league as the leading German and Greek shipping companies “Chinese shipowners are looking for a strong international flag, as they want to compete in the same league as the leading German and Greek shipping companies,” argues Allison Williams from the Liberian flag. Nearly 15% of Liberia’s fleet is controlled from the Greater China region. “Of course, shipowners in China may also be looking for clear financial advantages when 30

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quick and easy registration of ships under the Singapore flag. A ship can be registered within two hours upon the complete submission of all relevant documents. Advance registration facilities are also available to facilitate delivery of a ship in a foreign port.

China’s shipowners are very much split down the middle between state and private control and this does influence flag choices,

suggests Kiribati’s Wu. “Privately owned shipping companies are less constrained to supporting the national registry or employing local crew,” he says.

Another important area that flags need to be on top of is in understanding and disseminating changing international regulations. Over the past 10 years it has become even more critical for flag states to participate at venues such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the International Labour Organization (ILO) thereby providing constructive inputs in order to balance actual practice with regulation. Flag states ratify important

Registries ■ ■ ■

Room for improvement Engen Tham identifies issues with the PRC flag

I

ncreasing numbers of ships are being financed in renminbi, which mostly entails ship registration in China. Registration in China has both public and private law elements. In terms of public law, the vessel will have China as its flag state, and be subject to, for example, domestic regulation on pollution control and operation safety.

In terms of private law, the vessel’s title and the mortgage over it will be subject to Chinese registration practices and the enforcement by a financier of the mortgage will be subject to Chinese processes.

While RMB ship finance has burgeoned in recent years, it appears that reform of systems and regulations supporting a PRC-flagged vessel have not kept pace: no centralised ship registration system exists, so it can be difficult to obtain proof of ownership and security on a vessel; mortgage

Reform of systems and regulations supporting a PRC-flagged vessel are not keeping pace registration can take up to seven days, when many countries offer registration within a number of hours. This can lead to issues of priority for a financier ; foreign exchange controls make protracted State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) approval applications necessary in certain circumstances (e.g. if the mortgagee is a foreign company, SAFE approval will be necessary) and enforcement of mortgages in China remains virtually untested territory, with different ports operating with different rules.

Hong Kong in the ascendant international conventions to ensure a proactive approach is taken with respect to marine safety, security, environmental protection and social responsibility.

“Flag states should, in turn promptly inform shipowners/operators of such ratifications and provide them with a clear explanation in good time, with guidance on how to tackle new regulations so that their ships can continue to trade without delay or disruption,” says Annie Ng, who heads up the Marshall Islands’ operations in Asia. The Marshall Islands can boast offices in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Dalian and most recently Taipei.

The Hong Kong Shipping Register (HKSR) crossed the 76m gt mark in June with 2,105 ships on the register. Out of the 2,105 ships, 1,880 ships are sea-going ships comprising about 56% bulk carriers followed by 20% tankers and 19% containerships in terms of gross tonnage.

Statistical data published by the United National’s Review of Maritime Transport 2011 and the Danish Shipowners’ Association indicate that Hong Kong is the world’s fourth largest flag, buoyed in particular by mainland Chinese owners in recent years.

“Mainland shipowners have always been important supporters to the HKSR,” says an official from the local Marine Department, adding, “They have contributed to about 40% of the gross tonnage on the HKSR.” The Hong Kong flag has a simple fee structure whereby the annual tonnage charge is “relatively low in comparison with other flag states”, the source claims. Other services including issuing of certificates are either free of charge or at very low costs.

Moreover, Hong Kong has a simple and low tax system whereby profits generated from Hong Kong-registered ships trading worldwide are not subject to taxation in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong-registered ships also enjoy preferential port dues across all Chinese ports.

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■ ■ ■ HUBS: SHANGHAI

Lofty S hanghai has high aims of being a finance hub

The city’s banks gear up Shanghai correspondent Engen Tham considers how deft Shanghai branches of Chinese banks are at ship finance International ship fi nance, for many Shanghai branches of Chinese banks, is still an area of finance that is in its infancy — being still answerable to a senior branch, having to navigate a lengthy approval process and having insufficient experience. This can lead to a bewildering time for both bank and borrower.

Chinese banks only entered the fray very recently. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank started financing non-PRC flagged ships in 2008 and the Shanghai branch of China Construction Bank has only financed six ships in total. Involvement of all Shanghai branches in ship finance gained pace in 2008-9, on the back of the generous government stimulus package and other incentives (e.g. benefits connected to the free trade zone set up in Shanghai in 2009) provided by a government focused on moulding Shanghai into an international financial centre. Despite the 32

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pace of these two years, it seems that many Shanghai branches still have a way to go before they reach the level of sophistication of those banks in London, for example, that have been financing ships for hundreds of years.

China Development Bank Corporation (CDB), Shanghai

longer than it would do if the branch had the authority to make decisions by itself.

For the borrower, this can mean delays in financing and a lack of understanding from a branch representative as to why a decision on a financing document has been taken.

SinoShip understands that

Financing can lead to a bewildering time for both bank and borrower branch, has to submit all finance documents to its central office in Beijing for approval, which can take months to process. Once approval has been given, any substantial amendments to the documents (including, for example, a waiver of a condition precedent to financing) also have to be submitted for approval. The centralisation of the decision making process means that a relatively simple ship finance can take two or three times

there is currently no intention to change this process and that it is applicable to all CDB branches across China.

Although many CDB branches finance ships, SinoShip understands that each branch is allocated outbound finance transactions that relate to certain countries, so for example, CDB Shanghai is responsible for outbound business in Australia, New Zealand and Japan, whereas CDB Liaoning is allocated

Belarus and Ukraine, meaning that a borrower may not be able to request that a certain branch with more experience handle their transaction.

Some Shanghai branches of Chinese banks have more experience than others. The Bank of Communications (BOCOM) appears to be a ship finance behemoth, having financed over 30 ships. Shipping finance documents need only be submitted for approval if the value of the transaction is over a certain amount and given that the Shanghai branch is the head office in China, there are less bureaucratic hoops to jump through as you are dealing with the authoritative branch.

BOCOM does not allocate its transactions on the basis of the country to which the finance will be provided, so a borrower is likely to get its ship finance transaction handled by a branch that is well versed at ship finance.

The approval processes of some Chinese banks may appear tedious, but it is necessary given the relative lack of experience of certain branches.

“It is necessary for Chinese banks to implement such approval processes in order to control their exposure to risk” says Vincent Xu, partner at Ince & Co, a shipping law firm.

Having worked with different branches of Chinese banks all over China, Xu reckons that Chinese banks are getting increasingly sophisticated, fast: “I have seen a significant improvement in the efficiency of Chinese banks, they are creating specialised shipping finance departments — the Shanghai branch of the ExportImport Bank of China set up a ship finance department this summer — organising specialised training for their staff and working hard.”

Shanghai branches of Chinese banks may not all be deft just yet, but it looks as though it is just a question of time.

HUBS: TAIPEI ■ ■ ■

Full speed ahead Taipei has realised that a strong logistics infrastructure can bring plenty of trade and investment. Millions of dollars are being spent to ensure the island is a supply chain hub, reports Joshua Samuel Brown Taiwan has for decades been associated with a high calibre logistics sector, but in the past ten years it has lost a fair bit of its shine thanks to the rise of countless competitors across the Taiwan Strait. However, the signs are clear from the island that logistics are very much a pillar industry, and one set for huge investment in the coming years.

Taiwan’s premier Sean Chen emphasised this importance at an industry seminar in Taipei at the end of July.

“Encouraging the growth of the logistics industry can drive the development of the island’s economy,” Chen said, explaining that an advanced logistics infrastructure brings greater foreign investment and trade.

Economics minister Shih Yen-shiang agreed that a welldeveloped logistics network is essential to advancing Taiwan’s trade and economy.

The government hopes to make logistics one of Taiwan’s 10 major industries, and Shih said it intends to target China next to promote logistics opportunities across the Taiwan Strait.

To this end state-run Taiwan International Ports Corp (TIPC), the newly consolidated ports sector of the island, has a remit to look at port deals in China. For instance, it recently signed a letter with Guangxi Beibu Gulf International Port Group in southwest China to boost business. Under the terms of the letter of intent, TIPC will cut port charges by 20% to encourage transhipments from Guangxi. TIPC has signed similar letters with other Chinese destinations such as Tianjin and Guangzhou.

Taiwan’s bid to boost exports by adding free trade zones to its six top ports is paying off.

International trade at the six free trade zones on the island, including Keelung Port FTZ, Taipei Port FTZ, Suao Port FTZ, Taichung Port FTZ, Kaohsiung Port FTZ and Taoyuan Air Cargo Park FTZ, in the first five months surged 55% in value year-on-year.

On the aviation front Taipei has lost out in recent years to Shanghai, Incheon and Hong Kong, but plans for a brand new $10bn airport in the outskirts of Taipei, with plenty of cargo facilities, will look to redress the balance.

According to local statistics, there are some 250,000 people

working for 12,000 enterprises in the logistics field in Taiwan.

In 2011, the revenue of Taiwan’s logistics industry exceeded NT$1.4trn ($46.55bn).

year and its overall performance was 86.6%, while top-ranked Singapore had a score of 4.13, the bank’s latest logistics performance indicators showed.

Encouraging the growth of the logistics industry can drive the development of the economy The government has launched a NT$10bn project to promote Taiwan’s service sector, including the logistics industry and e-commerce.

Taiwan’s global logistics rankings went up one notch to 19th this year, according to a World Bank report published in mid-May. Taiwan’s score was 3.71 this

Taiwan’s rankings have continued to improve in the last three surveys, moving from 21st in 2007 to 20th in 2010, and 19th this year. Taiwan’s main trade competitor, South Korea, ranked 21st this year.

The island is prepared to spend large to keep rising up the ranks.

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HUBS: HONG KONG ■ ■ ■

Shipbuilding evolution Can’t sell? Then export and own. Alfred Romann on yards crossing the line in Hong Kong China’s shipbuilding i ndustry is in crisis. Total orders for new ships are at about half the level of last year. The China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI) said ship orders dropped 47% in the first half of this year to 9.54m dwt. Ship exports also plummeted by 48% to 6.84m dwt. The number of outstanding ship orders dropped 30.7% in the first half of the year from a year earlier.

Facing a revenue cliff, shipbuilders are coming up with alternative business models.

As new orders for ships become fewer and farther between in combination with a growing collection of nonperforming expensive contracts penned during the frenzied days of the previous cheap credit fuelled boom, a growing number of Chinese shipbuilders, both private and state-owned, are becoming shipowners. Their new owning companies are usually set up in Hong Kong, the one-stop shop for legal and

banking conveniently located on China’s doorstep, but otherwise essentially offshore.

“It is definitely happening.

It always happens at this state of a depression,” says Arthur Bowring, managing director of the Hong Kong Shipowners Assocation (HKSOA). “Nobody is going to orders ships in this market.”

transformed into bareboat or time charter candidates.

Major names like privately held Sinopacific Group started the trend of setting up Hong Kong shipowning companies.

Sinopacific’s Hong Kong subsidiary, Crown Ship, is being used to better understand the needs of owners, the yard’s boss Simon Liang told SinoShip

Shipbuilders’ new owning companies are usually set up in Hong Kong, the one-stop shop for legal and banking conveniently located on China’s doorstep, but otherwise essentially offshore The aim of these new shipowners is to export newbuildings out of China and collect a value-added tax rebate while keeping control of the assets.

Many distressed assets have disappeared into this offshore black hole, only to be

earlier this year, as well as providing alternative financial solutions to clients.

State-owned giants are now following suit. Among them is China State Shipbuilding Corp (CSSC) — the holding company for Shanghai Waigaoqiao,

Jiangnan, Hudong-Zhonghua, Chengxi, etc — which has just set up its own office in the Special Administrative Region.

“The move will enhance the state major’s operational flexibility and help avoid distressed sales, should some of its customers cancel orders or default on payments,” the shipbuilding group said in a statement.

“This unit will be involved in vessel leasing, seaborne transport, vessel sales, shipmanagement, investments, introduction of new technology related to ships and offshore equipments, crew management and other shipping-related business,” CSSC said. The group also said that Hong Kong’s advantages as “a financial centre, a trade centre and a shipping centre would help CSSC compete in international markets.”

Along with a number of banks signing up to be members of the HKSOA the ranks of the city’s shipowners are swelling in this strange shipping downturn.

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■ ■ ■ BOOKS

Ravenous for growth Paul French looks beyond the BRICs An inflationary Brazil, risky Russia, sluggish India and cooling China all make the once famed BRICs look a little less exciting these days.

Markets need growth, but where is growth to be found these days?

Ruchir Sharma, head of Emerging Market Equities and Global Macro at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, in his new book Breakout Nations: in Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles, has some ideas.

First off Sharma argues that it’s not an either/or situation — the BRICs can still perform, indeed he is most insistent that the Chinese consumer still has a lot of consumption growth to show the global economy yet. However, new giants will emerge.

Sharma’s two big bets to be the world’s next two trillion-dollar economies will be the big Muslim democracies — Indonesia and Turkey.

Sharma is especially bullish on Indonesia, a position taken by few major economists since the Asian financial crisis of 1997/1998, describing the country as an “anything-goes zone”.

Sharma has sound reasons for favouring one country over another — for instance, South Korea trumps Taiwan as a breakout place because Seoul is “one of the top-five nations in terms of winning international patents” while Taiwan, arguably more open to foreign influence and investment, has relied more on foreign technology rather than developing its own and profiting from innovation to the same extent. Innovation leads to exposure and economic growth too — Turkish pop culture is now sweeping 36

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HUNGRY DRAGON China might have to expand to acquire food and agricultural land in the same way that it has for metals and fuels

across the Middle East just as Korean pop culture swept across China and East Asia.

In the wake of the boy bands and movies sales were boosted for Korean brands across the region. Turkey could be poised for this lift off too.

Europe is not the potential consumer market of an Indonesia or a Turkey and an unlikely pop cultural innovation ambassador too.

Proximity to Germany and Western Europe is no bad thing but has yet to turn

Global economic reorientation is the immediate future Europeans may also take heart from Sharma’s findings.

Not only does Turkey sit on Europe’s eastern border begging for entry into the Union but, according to Sharma, Poland and the Czech Republic find themselves in the “sweet spot” of Europe.

This argument is perhaps less convincing — Eastern

itself into a lasting economic legacy for the Poles or the Czechs beyond emigration opportunities.

Dambisa Moyo is a former employee of Goldman Sachs, a recipient of a PhD in economics from Oxford, a controversial international economist and now she has waded into the China debate. Moyo and

Sharma would probably agree on one thing — overreliance on commodities is not a good thing. Sharma argues that, “the current oil mania echoes the dotcom mania of 2000 and will end badly for oil states.”

Bad news for Russia as a petrodollar superpower.

Moyo, in her book Winner Takes All: How the West Was Lost sees commodity scarcity leading to trouble all over, not least from China that she sees as willing to expand aggressively to secure supplies.

To be fair this is not a particularly new story — Chinese mining companies backed by Beijing in Africa, etc. Moyo, however, does explain what is and what isn’t in shortage — loads of aluminium, cotton and wheat; not nearly enough copper, lead and zinc.

But it’s none of these commodities Moyo sees as most problematic for China. Rather it is food.

Moyo predicts that China will have to expand to acquire food and agricultural land in the same way that it has in Africa, Central Asia and Latin America to acquire metals and fuels. This is also not an overly new thesis — reporters have covered Chinese neardeals in Zimbabwe to acquire farming land as well as largescale rental of land in Central Asia — clearly agricultural land and its control is one of the central issues in the problematic regions of Xinjiang and Tibet.

The important lesson from both these books? The world is changing — the previous powerhouses apparently stalling, new economic tigers rising for a myriad of reasons. Global economic reorientation is the immediate future.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

Bulk baby boom doom A generation born in passion, young but not modern.

Max Hong on the creation of a two-tier bulk market The bulk baby boom, that generation conceived in the frenzy of very easy credit and powered by ever-rising charter rates, was born against the backdrop of demand far outstripping supply. The name of the game was simply get more capacity. Securing a delivery slot was paramount. Paying for it was easy, with the bankers smiling at fat charter rates yielding ever increasing asset values.

Shipbuilders found themselves with the upper hand, able to impose not only their prices, but more importantly their standard specifications. There was no interest to enter into the time and money consuming process of developing new designs.

Black, blue or red? The colour of the paint was about the only choice the yards would give to their customers.

Then the party came crashing down in October 2008. The new clean and sober resolve had hardly finished its 30-day change- your-life recovery program when in November 2008 the Chinese government dropped the biggest credit bomb the world had ever seen, unleashing a tsunami of stimulus that flooded China with waves of investment in real estate and infrastructure construction projects and the dry cargo market with an even more mega demand cycle. It was the after party, time to reload and rock!

As the late, great George Harrison expressed with such simplicity: “All Things Must Pass”.

The irresistible forces of markets, physics and gravity combined with the stimulus of too much good times led to the mother of all “ménage a trois” hangovers.

The boom time high flying holy trinity of owners, their bankers and the yards who had

been so busy buying each other drinks in the VIP corner were now being assaulted back to the harsh glare of a morning after wake up call. Taking off the beer goggles of the previous evening and seeing in the light of day that which had looked so seductive the night before, rubbing their eyes and sore heads and asking: “What have I brought home with me and how quickly can I make it go away?”

The reality is that they will not go away and the entire community is now obliged to live with all these newly built bulk carriers that can barely find any paying work. Yes, they are young but not modern. These baby boomer bulkers are often very thirsty and today can find themselves drinking more than they earn.

With charter rates now locked into a long-term cycle of low earnings, the ship design industry has discovered a new growth sector, the LPC (lowest possible consumption), the only way to squeeze a long-term positive cash flow in a lean earnings environment. LPC is a survival imposed evolution that is also merging with the soon to be enforced regulations of going green.

For an owner who is long

LESS IS MORE Tomorrow’s bulkers will consume less equipment. With Japan locked into a yen distorted pricing structure and Korea too busy cashing in on the LNG and offshore boom, it leaves China as the new cradle for innovation for this new generation in dry bulk.

The now defunct boom time demand for ships likewise led to an expansion of shipbuilding capacity, especially in China.

Greenfield yards are going extinct and will not be mourned.

It is the state owned sector in China that has returned to prominence. These government controlled yards with their financial stability, years of experience, greatly improved research and

The first tier will be greener, fewer, cheaper and performing better than those of the boom generation on cash and less dependent on leverage from the very diminished pool of bank financing, the new market situation is providing an interesting market opportunity. Today, they are finding the shipbuilders hungry for any new business and having both the time and willingness to discuss new ideas, designs and

development and now state of the art production facilities, are attracting what ever new business there is.

It is in China’s most experienced yards where the new ordering activity has been taking place. While very discreet and the numbers so far have been very conservative, what is being

born is a new population of bulk carriers that are far fewer in number than the thirsty boom babies, by definition younger and very modern in terms of low consumption, green compliance and operational efficiency.

If the boom generation was born of haste and convenience, these latest newcomers are by contrast the result of advanced, well thought out and informed design, using some of the most efficient and innovative main engines ever, all being well built by the best yards in China.

What the market is now witnessing is the birth of a twotier market. Within the next 12 months, these newly designed and powered ships will start their trading lives. They will be the first tier of the dry market: greener, younger, fewer, costing less and performing better than those of the boom generation making up the second tier.

Those investing in the new first tier have firm expectations their more attractive ships will have better life time returns, being the first to fix, preferred by charterers over the vastly larger pool of the second tier boom bulkers, overbuilt, less desired, and possibly a lost generation.

Sinoship AUTUMN 2012

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■ ■ ■ OPINION

Bending with the wind Wikborg Rein’s Steffen Pedersen and Geir Sviggum ponder the future of shipping with China in pole position The emergence of China as a global force, if not the main engine, of the shipping industry has if anything merely gathered pace since the global financial crisis hit in 2008.

A question worth asking is what would the future look like (and hold) if the power in the shipping industry shifted to Asia, and China in particular?

The Chinese are not Westerners. This is evident in everyday life as much as it is in approaches to contracts and litigation. The Chinese have traditionally taken a much more pragmatic than legalistic approach to resolving disputes. Getting results is more important than the manner in which they are achieved.

Most often, this means talking, showing face, and finding creative (not necessarily legalistic) resolutions to problems.

That said, Chinese are not averse to taking the legal approach if it can improve their relative position in negotiation. Often, threatening litigation/arbitration is enough to bring about the desired result. This totally pragmatic side of Chinese behaviour is straight 38

www.sinoshipnews.com

out of the Art of War and often not appreciated by Westerners for what it actually is. Chinese posturing is often perceived as aggression, disrespect, or reckless brinkmanship, which often is exactly what it is designed to appear as.

A fearful opponent faced with an unpredictable adversary is a more malleable one.

there is a common perception we have encountered that London arbitration is not a forum that Chinese litigants are successful in. This may have something to do with the approach to litigation outlined above, although it is also likely to be a cultural and linguistic response. However, whatever the reason, it seems

Some owners may find it hard to do business in China down the road If this pragmatism was to rule the world, this may mean bad news for lawyers and arbitrators. Particularly English lawyers based in London. There is, however, still a place for sound legal advice. However, lawyers (and ‘technical’ legal solutions) will likely be seen much more as smaller pieces in a larger chess game, and no longer the main event. Litigation can, and will, be used simply as a measure of putting pressure on counterparties to agree settlement on favourable terms.

As for arbitration, this may be used in the same way. However,

likely that Asia will become a much more favoured destination for arbitration, with Hong Kong and Singapore tagged as the top regional jurisdictions — in the same time zone and with arbitrators that, perhaps, have a (perceived at least) better understanding of the Asian way of doing things than the majority of their London counterparts.

Meanwhile, we are seeing a lot of litigation involving Chinese companies, inevitable perhaps given the dire straits the industry is in. We discern two types of western opponents: (i) those that see a longer term perspective;

and, (ii) those that do not. In the latter falls the stereotype of the very aggressive owner. They pursue litigation religiously, have little desire to negotiate and choose the hard road in bringing suits and enforcing matters in China.

Climbing that last great wall in China can be very difficult.

In the former are the slightly more sensitive owners and operators who are willing to (re) negotiate, and perhaps realise that their long-term livelihoods may depend on good relations, and a good reputation in China.

Chinese have long memories.

Already, from our discussions with Chinese parties, it is apparent that some owners have a tainted reputation in China. We get the impression that some owners may find it hard to do business in China down the road.

The more sensitive owner, who agrees renegotiations or deferred payment, will be best placed to move ahead in future — whatever that may look like.

That said, the spectre of protectionism also looms large in the current shipping world, and China may turn introvert, as it has done before and simply exclude foreign shipping from large parts of the China trade.

A subtler form of protectionism may also be in ship finance. European financial institutions are leaving shipping. The Chinese are wealthy.

Shipowners wanting to get funding for newbuildings will need to deal with Chinese banks, and they may well insist on having the construction done in China, as opposed to elsewhere.

To conclude it is difficult to predict what China will do, or become. As things stand things look bleaker rather than brighter for the traditional shipping powerhouses, although that may simply be the recession. As Chairman Mao said, you need to bend with the wind. The one who grasps that will likely survive.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

The pain and strain of being a banker in the People’s Republic Beijing-based columnist Li Deng Bai recalls some of his more outrageous trips around the nation I sat up in bed with a start. Light streamed in from the window that suggested it was late in the morning, and I was not in my own room. Then my body started sending signals to my brain that all was not well — and damage had been done the night before.

My temples were throbbing, my throat was dry and my mouth tasted like baijiu and cigarettes.

If memory serves me well this was the worst Maotai experience I have ever had and, unsurprisingly, it had taken place in its hometown of Guiyang. Visiting a private barites mining company, who was looking at listing in Singapore, the owner, a four foot something tall firebrand spoke a confusing blend of Sichuanese and Putonghua. He loved the idea of getting the big ABC kid drunk in his office so as he laid out his plans for global domination of the barite mud industry, he insisted we start drinking. I had to be helped to dinner and carried to bed shortly thereafter. We didn’t get to help out on the IPO… clearly I had failed some test.

Normally business trips follow a rather tedious pattern.

One arrives at the relevant company’s office, and discussions go on over tea in a formal meeting room. If you know the people you generally get straight down to it and discuss whatever the issue of the day is — but if not you go through this strange courtship ritual. This normally means two teams of people sitting in a line facing each other.

After a lot of mutual studying of business cards there will then be very stylised, generalised and mostly useless introductions

white out Don’t make any five-year plans if you’re drinking baijiu of one’s company and listening very carefully to the people opposite emphasising how they are in keeping with the five-year plan — the implication being: we are very important and you should cut your fees, buy more, sell more cheaply or whatever to secure their favour.

Initial meetings fall into two categories generally in China.

One is the very enthusiastic greeting but little of substance

Recently I was at a meeting with a newer regional shipping line and their boss decided to try his English for his formal speech. The fact he couldn’t speak English led to mass confusion — especially when he finished with the cryptic phrase, “You no come, we no speak.”

In 2007 I remember one meeting that was in retrospect hysterical. I was trying my hand at some physical cargo broking

If memory serves me well this was the worst Maotai experience I have ever had talked about — fun but rarely ever leading to anything interesting. Normally when there is a cautious welcome, with a suggestion it is all going to take time to develop anything and there’s something of substance talked about there is the highest chance of success.

— more as a favour to a shipowning buddy who was looking for the Chinese deal than anything else.

I found a Shandong steel mill that wanted to talk business and invited us up to discuss a contract of affreightment. We arrived to a reception bordering

on the violent in how unhappy they were to see us. They refused to shake hands with us, and the first question asked was: “Who are you and why are you here?” The meeting deteriorated from there, not least because I became ill from food poisoning and had to go and be sick half way through the meeting. I came back to find the steel mill’s senior executive saying to my bemused friend: “Frankly, we don’t like foreigners coming into our factory, I suggest you don’t come back.”

I found out later that they were in the process of negotiating their usual contract with their usual local owner, and they had invited us there not because they wanted to see us, but because they wanted to push their owner’s freight down a bit.

Such is the life of the wandering banker of the China trade.

Sinoship AUTUMN 2012

39

■ ■ ■ PHOTO FINISH

40

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PHOTO FINISH ■ ■ ■ CLOUDS GATHERING Shipping prospects in Chinese waters look stormy this year and next一艘满载的中远集装箱船通过香港的博寮海峡去往美国，运费终于上升

© André Eichman

Sinoship AUTUMN 2012

41

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海上风电机遇 木材贸易 2012年秋季刊

站 om 问 网 s.c 访 的 new 新 ip 们 osh 我 .sin w ww

LNG白皮书

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家族勇气 许志坚谈逆势

在中国处理租船合同纠 纷的重要指南 上海银行金融特辑 “我们的行业需要提高 准入门槛”—顾建纲 Sinoship 2012年秋季刊

I

ClassNK 伴随海事产业而成长 不断进取，积极应对 随着全球经济发展与结构转变，当今的海事产业正面临各种前所未有的挑战。 日本海事协会（简称ClassNK）注册船舶总吨约占世界商船总吨的20%，是全球 知名的船级社。我们充分理解海事产业的需求，并根据海事产业对安全航运的需 要，积极开展全新的服务与技术研发。在ClassNK主页上，您可以了解到更多我 们为保障各种船舶安全、防止海洋环境污染所作出的努力。www.classnk.or.jp

目录

■ ■ ■ 定期报道 3 编者语 4 经济 6 班轮 9 船厂 10 离岸 13 金融 15 商品 16 物流 17 邮轮

■ ■ ■ 人物专访 19 许志坚 21 顾建纲 22 魏家福船长 23 郑俊声

■ ■ ■ 专题 4 液化天然气 2

26 法律 30 船舶登记

■ ■ ■ 枢纽 32 上海

33 台北

35 香港

■ ■ ■ 评论

36 书籍

■ ■ ■ 意见 37 Max Hong

38 Pedersen & Sviggum 39 Li Deng Bai

市场疲软有一个好处,那就是 你可以建造优质的船只,因为船 厂会放低姿态和你合作 — Tim Huxley,华光海运

■■■

3

陈旧问题会为造船业创造完美 的机遇潮

9

— John Rowley,劳氏船级社

由于船东行业的动荡, 家族企 业有利于持续开展业务,并记住 坏事是如何发生的 — 许志坚, 勇利航业

19

在大约两三年内,我们的船队将 达到100艘

23

— 郑俊声,慧洋海运

我们预计不久将出现更多的小 型LNG运输船,推动地区贸易并 改变态势 — George Wang, ABS

25

如果在全球船舶贸易中更经常 地看到中国国旗,那就太好了

26

— Peter Murray, 英士律师事务所

中国的非法律文化破坏了文件 的整体内容 — Geir Sviggum, 威宝律师事务所

28

Sinoship 2012年秋季刊

1

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编者语

■■■

中 国 航 运 的 国 际 平 台 www.sinoshipnews.com ASM刊物 编辑主管 Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com 首席通讯记者 司湘

katherine@asiashippingmedia.com 通讯记者 姜浩

jason@asiashippingmedia.com 北京 上海 香港 大连 广州 台北

Li Deng Bai Engen Tham Alfred Romann Mark Downing Wang Fanglei Joshua Samuel Brown

供稿人

Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh 摄影

André Eichman, Basil Pao, 封面: NHST Events 所有编辑资料请发送至sam@asiashippingmedia.com 或邮寄到中国大连中山区人民路9号701办公室， 邮编116001 商务主管 Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com 中国销售主管 Tom Wu sales@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip同时也在东京、首尔和奥斯陆设有广告 代理机构。欲获取当地代理联系信息请发送邮件到 grant@asiashippingmedia.com。 媒体信息可在www.asiashippingmedia.com下载。 所有商务资料请发送至grant@asiashippingmedia. com 或邮寄到Asia Shipping Media, 83 Lorong N Telok Kurau #02-05, Singapore 425 265。 设计 Lamma Studio Design 印刷 香港雅联印刷有限公司 订阅 总部设在中国的所有海运公司都可以免费获取SinoShip 期刊。对于所有其他公司，订阅SinoShip2012年 4期需要收费100美元。订阅每月发行两次的PDF格 式的SinoShip电子新闻（包含独家新闻、数据和分 析）需收费500美元。订阅咨询请发送邮件到subs@ asiashippingmedia.com。 版权 © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2012 为确保本刊物所包含信息的准确性，尽管作出了所有努 力，但出版社对可能出现的任何错误或疏忽不承担任何责 任。版权所有。未事先获得版权拥有人的书面批准，不得 对本刊物的任何部分进行复制、储存于检索系统或以任何 形式或方式传输。

陈旧问题的困扰 随 着 船 舶 设计趋于绿色化，以及大型国 际商船队陈旧性问题的逐渐凸显，双层干 散货船市场很可能迎来发展机遇，这也是 这期期刊经常讨论到的话题。 近期在香港举行的SinoShip干散货商务 早餐会上，陈旧问题成为了热门话题，而在 外国记者俱乐部的活动上，与会者提出了“ 船龄10年的年轻船舶可能不再适用”的看 法，更是令一些船主不由心生忐忑。 “市场疲软有一 个好处，那就是 你可 以建 造 优 质的 船只，因为船厂会放低 姿 态和你合作。”华光海运集团(Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings)首席执行官 Tim Huxley指出。 Oak Maritime的Jack Hsu思忖道，鉴于 燃油价格已达每吨700美元，造船厂正在 探索新设计，以使船舶的燃油效率比上一 代 船 舶（也 就是目前航 行的船 舶）高5% 、10%，甚至15％。 “这就导致了经济性陈 旧问题，”他补充道： “往年，好望角型船 报废时的平均船龄为23至25年，巴拿马型 船为25至27年，灵便型散货船则为30年以 上。这一状况是否会改变？” 对此，DVB银行的Evan Cohen代表银 行界人士明确表达了其观点。他指出，船 龄在10至15年之间的低效率船舶的资本价 值非常有限，因此船主在为此类船争取债 务融资时将面临重重困难。 “船主获得的 资本取决于船舶的质量。”他说。 KC Maritime老板Vikrant Bhatia很想知 道陈旧问题将如何影响船舶的定价。 “如 果我们发现船龄为10年的船舶不能继续 运营15年的时间，这些船舶是否会贬值， 进而反过来影响新造船舶的价格？”他向 与会的船主提出了疑问。 华光海运的Huxley迅速给出了回答。 “ 价格肯定会有落差。”他断言。 “目前可能 是一个转折点。与2013年以后可能应用的 技术相比，2012年的技术稍显过时。因此

在这个转折点上，使用当前技术制造的船 舶可能会面临价差问题。”他推断道。 如想进一步了解这个引人入胜的话题， 请参阅第9页的船厂报导，以及第37页来自 新专栏作家Max Hong的深度评论。 更多关于中国船东和船厂的最新消息请 登录我们的新闻网站www.sinoshipnews.com.

SamChambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com Sinoship 2012年秋季刊

3

■ ■ ■ 经济

向正确的方向调整 Paul French 对国家财富再平衡之见 北 京公布 今年第二季度增长 数 字为 7. 6 %，低 于 前 三 个月 8.1%的增长，分析师马上纷纷 作出崩 溃瓦 解 和 大 灾 难 的 预 言。许多人将中国经济的所有 减 速信号 都 视 为 要遭 受 灭 顶 之灾的征兆。但是，毕竟这是 SinoShip，也许更形象的说法 不是大灾难，而是一艘正在改 变方向的油轮— 要正确矫正 方向就必须让速度减缓一些。 同样，北京应该认识到的是， 那种凭借大量廉价劳动力、低 廉资本和利用欧盟及美国等蓬 勃发展的出口市场来取得强劲 发展的日子已经一去不复返， 因此北京应该能够承受增长略 为放缓的局面。 中国经济未来（如果真的要 避免经济灾难）增长率将稳定 在 7- 8 %，但会 把 更多资金 用 于推 进中国的福利体系— 老 龄 化 的 社会 需 要 适 当的 养 老 金制度和医疗保障体系，中产 阶 级 逐 渐 增多的城 市 社会 需 要 基 金 更 雄 厚 的高等 教育系 统来促进创新和创业精神（最 终带来就 业增长），财富差距 惊人的社会需要提高有工作的

轻微地进行再平衡—不再象 传 统 上 那 样 过 度依 赖于出口 和内部投资，转而发展国内消 费。零售业持 续 增长，但被大 大低估了— 在中国多样性 增 强 的多 渠 道 零售 领 域中 简 直 不足为道。要将有工作的穷人 的支 出提 高 到 新中产 阶 级 水 平 就 需 要 提 高 他 们的 工资。 这正是现在正在做的—蓝领 工人的工资被用来带动消费， 因此，工厂工人的工资一年增 长超过10%；与此类似的措施 还包括正在实施新的更高的最 低工资标准并在全国范围内强 制执行。传达出来的信息非常 明确— 中产阶 级（最 近几年 受 房地 产 市场 和 低 税 率 的 影 响而享有得天独厚的优势）现 在 必须自力更 生，与此同时， 关注的重心转向了有工作的穷 人。这可能会损害奢侈品的销 售，但将极大 地滋养日常用品 （肥皂、洗 发 水、速食面等） 的销售。 这种 再 平衡 和财 富差 距的 收窄将支持北京去实现其“社 会和谐”的头号目标，会引发 更多的通货膨胀，可能还会使

恰如正在改变前进方向的油轮， 要正确矫正方向就必须放缓步调 穷人的工资。所有这些都意味 着要牺牲一些增长，并支出更 多钱— 夸耀的应该是医院的 数量和向小企业贷款的增长， 而 不是 主 权 财 富 基 金 和 外汇 账户。 中国 经 济 确 实 看上去正 在 4

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多个城市的房地产泡沫破灭。 但另一方面更健康且更平衡的 经济将逐渐成形。最近北京提 出，主 要发 展消费，基础设 施 支出也持续飞速增长— 受正 在启动新项目（主要为建设项 目）的国有企业驱动，2 012年

中国32%的中产阶级仍在将其50% 以上的薪金存储起来

迄今为止，固定资产投资作为 产出的一部分一直在增长。 这里又出现了被称为“金融 抑制”的摩擦因素，这是 此刻 中国经济棘手的矛盾问题。个 人储户继 续倚重储蓄—上海 明特尔研究中心的最新调查显 示，令人吃惊的是，32%的中国 中产阶级仍在将他们50%以上 的工资存储起来。这些存款所 得利息即便不是负利息，也是 少得可怜，在经济增速为7-8% 的情况下（更不必说增长速度

为+10%的黄金时期），对于储 户是不公 平的。但是，这些现 金并不在零售经济领域流通， 银行坐守大额现金，更愿意将 其贷给国有企业，而国有企业 所做项目劳动密集程度相对较 低，如建 设项目。中国人 把钱 款存起 来挫伤了消费，而银行 却 会 借 贷 给 安 全 的 传 统的基 础设施建设项目— 很多人就 会问，在这样一种等式中现在 至关重要的创新和就业机会从 何而来？

■ ■ ■ 班轮

泰 山 石 化 正在寻 找一 位 新的 拥有人，因为该公司正在试图 摆脱一 位投资者— 华平 投 资 集团( Wa r b u r g P i n c u s) 提 出的可能 导 致 公司 倒 闭的 诉 讼。这 家 位 于 香 港 的 能 源 运 输 公司 正 面 临巨大 的 债 务 危 机，而拥有公司股权10 %的华 平 投资 集团已经 提 起 法 律 诉 讼，诉 讼可能导致泰山石化清 盘。然而，泰山石化声 称已经 获得珠 海 振 戎 能 源 提 出控 股 该公司的非约束性要约，并且 正 在 讨 论 新 股 发 行 事 宜，振 戎 能 源 是 中国的 五 大 石 油 交 易商之一。

中 远 集 团 的大部分成员公司 依然面临严峻局面。在香港 上市的中国远洋控股有限公 司称，该公司上半年亏损加 大，与截至2011年6月30日止 六个月亏损人民币28亿元相 比，亏损扩大了50%以上。与 此同时，在上海上市的中远 航运称其中期利润将下99.5% 至人民币700,000元。

南 京 长 江 油 运 公 司 的财务状

况十分严峻，致使该公司以 两艘油轮为抵押，向招银金 融租赁有限公司贷款4亿元 人民币，该公司在一份向上 海证券交易所提交的文件中 写道。最新的协议意味着南 京长江油运将有总共15艘 船舶作为抵押品。此外，南 京长江油运还与香港的华林 有限公司共同出资组建了 NW Shipmanagement，这是 一家位于新加坡的船舶管理 合资企业。虽然华林已经登 陆新加坡超过50年，但此次 的合资公司还是华林在新加 坡的首家船舶管理公司。

继太平洋造船和舜天海洋等 其他造船企业蜂拥进入香港 市场之后，中 国 船 舶 工 业 集 团 公 司 也在香港建立了一家 航运公司，以避免经济衰退 带来的最坏影响。这家国营 巨型集团称，“此举将增强 这家国营大型企业的运营灵 活性，并且可以在其部分客 户取消订单或拖欠账款时避 免不良销售。”中国船舶工 业集团公司表示：“这家公 司将参与船舶租赁、海运运

输、船舶销售、船舶管理、 投资、船舶和海洋设备相 关新技术的引入、船员管理 以及其他航运相关业务。” 中国船舶工业集团公司上半 年净利润从2011年同期的 1,598.4万元人民币下降约 80%。

船和一艘好望角型船。“我 们获得了洪祥母公司北京建 龙重工集团有限公司（中国 一家大型工业集团）的充分 保证，并且我们将积极寻求 一切可行手段追讨应支付给 我们的款项，并要求赔偿损 失。”SFI说道。

香港太平洋航运集团的港 口拖船分部P B T o w a g e Australia与Boluda Towage & Salvage已经签署合作协议， 两家公司将就即将到来的 Australian LNG码头拖船合同 提交联合竞标。此举反映了 在香港上市的太平洋航运降 低对干散货贸易的依赖性的 整体策略。 锦 江 航 运 已与江南造船签署 了一份建造1,100标箱集装箱 船的4+4协议，交易金额未对 外披露。订单船舶将于2014 年2月起开始交付。锦江航运 于1983年在上海创建，此订 单标志着这家亚洲运营商的 重大拓展，目前该公司仅拥 有10艘船舶。7月份，锦江航 运与日本的仓储和物流公司 住友仓库和三井仓库在上海 签署协议，以开发综合性的 物流业务。

洪 祥 航 运 成为最近期违 背 租 船 合 约 的 中 国 公 司。John Fredriksen的两家 纽约上市公司Ship Finance International (SFI)和 Knightsbridge Tankers分别 于7月底转租4艘灵便型散货

宁 波 海 运 似乎即将易手，其 母公司宁波海运集团正在就 潜在出售事宜与浙江省能源 集团进行磋商。宁波海运从 事远洋散货运输，业务以煤 为主，在当前的市场环境下 举步维艰，2012年第一季度 亏损人民币3,673万元。浙江 省能源公司成立于2001年， 向浙江省的国有能源企业提 供电力建设服务。

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S

oShip China Shipping Network 中 国 航 运 的 国 际 平 台

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FutureShip Engineering fuel efficiency From assisting at the earliest stages of your newbuilding project to providing tools for your ships in operation, FutureShip is there with the right solutions to boost your ship’s fuel efficiency and your bottom line.

Get in touch and let FutureShip show you the ship of the future.

管理燃油效率 从新造船项目最初阶段的协 助，直至用于船舶营运的工 具，FutureShip能随时为您 提供合适的解决方案，以提 升您的船舶燃油效率和赢利 水平。 敬请垂询。让FutureShip为 您展示未来的船舶！

Germanischer Lloyd (China) Co., Ltd. info@futureship.de ∙ www.futureship.de

全球海事 招聘业的领导者 无论您的业务发展 到哪，我们都提供 您需要的保障

Faststream Recruitment Group

Tel: (+65) 653 27 201 Shipping: Seagoing: Oil & Gas: Marine:

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25年来，凯林集团为世界各地的海事事业客户提供 支持，确保他们可以应付所面临的各种海上风险。 通过在新加坡和香港的海事承保团队及劳合社中国 的平台，凯林集团在亚洲的劳合社联盟中具有最广 泛的海事业务覆盖面。我们新加坡专业的理赔团队 使客户享受到和伦敦总部一样的专业理赔服务和赔 款支付能力。 凯林的海事团队可以根据您的需求，为您量身定制各 类保险方案，包括： ● 船壳以及机器设备保障险 ● 战争险 ● 船建险

● 全损利益

● 货物运输险

● 比例和超赔水险责任

如果您需要为船只配备成功航行的保障，相信凯林可 以帮您抵御任何风浪。 更多信息请访问www.catlin.com. 新加坡 | David Hughes | David.Hughes@catlin.com 香港 |Timothy Lee | Timothy.Lee@catlin.com 伦敦 | Simon Shrimpton | Simon.Shrimpton@catlin.com 劳合社中国 | Li Linmao | Linmao.Li@catlin.com

Sailors’ Society Shipping Dinner Hong Kong Wednesday 21st February 2013, Island Shangri-La Hotel, Pacific Place In aid of merchant seafarers in need.

Guest speaker Alan ‘Wilko’ Wilkins, ESPN Star Sports Commentator and former England County Cricketer.

Drinks reception, fine dining, spectacular auction and music.

To reserve your table please contact Catherine Slade on +44 (0)23 8051 5905 or cslade@sailors-society.org

Tables of 10: HK$31,100/US$4,000 Supported by Hong Kong Shipowner Association:

Drinks Reception Sponsor:

Sailors' Society t/a Sailors’ Beneficial Enterprises Ltd. to benefit from UK gift aid. Company No. 3652955 Sailors’ Society Registered Charity (England and Wales) No. 237778

船厂

精益化和绿色化 Sam Chambers报导称最环保的企业将在中国造船领域脱颖而出 目前， 中国造船业正在面临着一

由于日本深陷扭曲的日元定价 场大规模的“洗牌”。在这个浪 结构中，韩国忙于从液化天然气 潮中，企业存活所需的关键资本 和离岸繁荣中获利，因此只剩下 之一就是拥有绿色船舶设计能 中国可以作为新一代干散货创新 的新摇篮。 力。 在绿色造船业方面，Rowley预 在第37页，专栏作家Max Hong 提到最低可能消费(LPC)的时代 计中国的顶级造船厂可与韩国和 已经到来。在盈利微薄的环境中， 日本匹敌。 对于最近刚投入使用的超大 最低可能消费是获得长期正现 金流的唯一办法。最低可能消费 型油轮设计，他发表了自己的看 不仅是为求生存而被迫实施的 法。该船每天耗油104吨，而最新 “每年 变革，这同时也迎合了即将生效 的设计每天仅耗油80吨。 可节省燃油成本500万美元。通 的绿色环保法规。 可节省最多达20％燃料成本 过设 计提 供经济优势的造船厂 的新船舶设计可能会将目前很 将幸存。” Torvald Klaveness总裁兼首 大一部分贸易船队逼到淘汰的 席执行官Lasse Kristoffersen说： 悬崖边上。 “ 陈 旧 问 题 会 为 造 船 业 创 “在中国，最大的挑战是设计出 造完美的机 遇潮。”劳氏船级 省油的船舶。” 中国 船 舶 工业 行 业 协 会 社亚洲区主管John Rowley宣称。 “价格低廉，监管压力存在并将日 (CANSI)秘书长王锦连先生表示 “在未来五到十 渐增强。最大的压力来自经营成 赞同，他强调： 年，甚至更长的时间内，我们需 本。油价将继续攀升。”

要研究和开发符合新规定的技 术。市场对节能提出了更高的要 求，而许多国产品牌不能满足更 高的标准。如果这些品牌不进行 设计突破，其市场份额将减少。” 中国政府并未忘记这一点。6

■■■

月，即 将 卸 任 的 交 通 部 长 李 盛 霖 敦促中国 加 快 建 立低 碳 运 输 系 统，以实 现 节 能目标 。 李 盛 霖 说 ，交 通 运 输 部 预 计，到 2 0 1 5 年，当 前 车 辆 和 船 舶经营公司每吨 英 里的 二氧化 碳 排 放 量将比 2 0 0 5 年 分 别 减 少1 0 ％和 1 6 ％，港 口的 总 体 能 耗 也 将 降 低 8 ％。 为了确保目标的实现，该 部门 将制定激励政策，并划拨专项 资金。

混合动力技术的突破 今年夏天，中国造船业庆祝全国首艘双燃料（柴油和液化天 然气混合动力）船的成功试航。7月28日清晨， “海川3号”驶 离光大造船厂，采用其混合动力推进系统沿长江某航段成功 航行。 “海川3号”是一艘载重量达3100吨的散货船，由中国外运 长航集团(Sinotrans CSC)运营。该船由中外运长航与昆仑能源、 武汉市交通发展集团和中国石油集团济柴动力总厂共同研发建 造。其船级由中国船级社评定。 该船长79.60米，宽13.60米，可装载15立方米的液化天然 气。混合动力发动机的功率为400千瓦，船速可达18.7节。 预计今后几年里，中国还将建造数百艘此类新船舶，显著改 善长江沿岸的污染状况。

Sinoship 2012年秋季刊

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■ ■ ■ 离岸

乘风而行 中国加入风电安装大潮 尽 管 初 始 需 求 很 小，但 风 电 安 装 船 的 需 求 正 在日益 增 长，而中国正在进入这一高价 值 领 域 ，其 中 新 船 的 价 格 在 1.5到2亿美元之间。 Lloyd’s Register（LR）首 席离岸专家Rob Whillock指 出： “早 期的许多安装船是用 原 来 石油 和 天 然 气 行 业 的 驳 船改装或翻新而成的。现在的 10

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市 场 重 点已 经 转 向用 于在 北 欧 部 署 的 新 建 的自升 式 安 装 船，我们预计亚洲将进一步建 造这种安装船。” 这 位 L R 的 专 家 称 ，该 行

业“正在快 速增长，但 是很可 能市场相对较小”，全 球近期 到中 期 将 有约 4 0 艘 船，因为 重 点 正 转向 深 水 和 专用 安 装 船。

早期的许多安装船都是改装或翻新 的……重点已转向新船

同为船级社的Germanischer Lloyd（GL）认为仅欧洲就有20 到30艘大船。 对 于中国自身 的 需 求，G L 的中国离岸业 务 开发 经 理 George Zhang说道： “政府想 大力推动海上能源开发，但是 由于政 策、技术、财务等方面 的限制，目前我们还看不到清 晰的前景。”

离岸

中国有4家公司能够建造风 电安装船，这些公司主要位于 江苏省。 江苏蛟龙重工集团（J H I） 是 最 近 进 入 这一市 场 的 公 司。该 集团于 6月宣 布 将为一 个 未 透 露 名字 的 新加 坡 船东 建造一艘风电安装船，交付时 间为2013年第三季度。 这 艘 新 的自推 式 、自升 式 海上 风 电 安 装 船 由江 苏 蛟 龙 重工集团的新加坡子公司J HI Engineering建造，基本工程设 计由美国海军建筑Bennett & Associates完成。 这 艘DP-2船拥有6 0 0 吨的 长起重臂，主要用于进行风力 发电机 组的安装、维修、建设 和维护。 这 艘 船拥有四支长达 9 5米 的支架，可在超过60米的深水 区作业，该船的开发无疑考虑 到了中国海域的特点。 与 此 同 时 ，中 远 船 务 工 程 集 团 有 限 公司已 经 向 M P I Offshore交付了两艘风电安装 船，并且 正在为丹 麦的A 2 Sea 建造另外两艘安装船。该集团

由南通和启东子公司制造这种 高科技船舶。 MPI的两艘船由GustoMSC设 计。这两艘M PI船主要特点是 配有一台1,000吨的主起重机，

司和 江 苏 韩 通 船 舶 是 风电安 装船行业内的另外两家公司。 龙源振华是龙源电力公司和上 海振华重工建立的一家海上风 能行业的工程采购公司。上海

新型的专用风电安装船（WTIV） 非常昂贵，其工程要点关键在于 桩腿 加上一台50吨的辅助起重机， 可容纳112人，装载能力达6,000 吨，最大作业深度为40米。 同时，A 2Sea订造的船只也 在 建 设 中，一 艘 将 于 今 年 交 付，另一艘于2 014 年交付。其 中一艘配有9 0 0吨起重机，另 一艘则为800吨。 两艘 船中较大的一 艘 全 长 132米，宽39米，造价1.55亿美 元，能够容 纳6 0 名船员以及8 到10台完整的风力发电机组， 而较小的一艘则可容纳8台风 力发电机组。 江 苏龙 源 振 华 海洋工 程 公

振华已经交付了一艘风电安装 船，并且还在建造一艘用于更 深海域的安装船。而江苏韩通 虽然在多年前建造了一些小型 风电安装船，但目前却没有这 类船的订单。 Bureau Veritas船级社最近 发布了风能服务船的设计和建 造指南。 Bureau Veritas的离岸服务 船经理Maxime Pachot表示： “ 这些船必须能够在恶劣的海洋 条件下快速运送人员，将维护 人员从岸上或母船上运送到风 机。”

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Phoenix Offshore China咨 询业务董事总经理Jackie Yu概 括了建造风电安装船涉及的困 难。 “就像是自推 式的自升 式 驳船，”他补充道， “对于船身 来说，高强度的钢焊是重点所 在。” LR的W hillock更深入 地谈 论了这个 话题。 “新型的专用 风电安装船非常昂贵，其工程 要点关键在于桩腿、起重机升 降设备和相关的负载，并确保 甲板空间得到最优的设置，” 他说道， “与传统船只相比，这 种船需要的钢材规格更高— 这些钢材用于支架系统和其它 高压力和高负载的地方。” “开发、设计和分析这种船 舶的性能需要海上石油和天然 气行业的专业技术，”GL的副 总裁Rasmus Stute指出， “通 过将石油和天然气领域的专业 知 识与可 再 生 能 源 行 业 的 要 求相结合，我们将能够找到成 本 和可用 性 之 间的 最 佳 解 决 方案。”

我们是亚洲最大的独立海洋船舶经纪及 海事咨询集团之一 我们的服务包括 M3 MARINE 离岸经纪 • 租船 （定期租船和光船租赁） • 销售和采购 （包括新造船） M3 MARINE 专业服务 • 市场调研 • 船舶估价 • 项目分析 • 专家鉴证 • FMEA 制作&审计 • DP咨询/年度DP Trials • IMCA CMID和 潜水系统审核 • 预购调查检验 • 海事人才安置 • 技术/商业 尽职调查 专家们为您的海洋船舶需求增添技术及商业竞争力

Sinoship 2012年秋季刊

11

金融

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寻找资金 广州记者Wang Fanglei和大连记者Jason Jiang着眼于全国船舶融资的最新趋势 七月，交 银 (BOCOM)金融租 赁公司操作完成了“洋山港保 税登记船舶”项目中的首笔融 资租赁交易。银行以融资租赁 方式向上海丹阳航务的“冠海 朝阳”号投放1.46亿元资金。 翰 辉 船 舶租 赁 有限 公司是 交银金融租赁公司在洋山港设 立的一家特 殊目的公司(SPV ) ，它买入香港 籍 船 舶“朝阳” 号，注销其 香 港船 籍，在 洋山 港重 新注 册。同时，将船只更 名为“冠海朝阳”号，然后根据 一份融资租赁协议租赁给上海 丹阳船务公司,一家由冠 海 船 务在洋山港设立的SPV公司。 丹阳船务计划将船只向海外转 租，用于国际航运。 2011年12月，交通运输部同 意将洋山港作为新的船舶登记 港。在洋山保税港区登记的公 司将享受保税船舶登记服务。 “冠 海 朝阳号的融 资 租 赁 交 易反 映 出国内 船 籍 登 记 制

度实现了突破，它将吸引更多 在海外注册的中国公司船舶回 归，并在洋山港注册”，交银金 融租赁公司总经理陈敏说。 密 切关注 上海发 展 趋 势的 是华南地区广东省船东协会秘 书长邓敏聪。他指出，他的大部 分成员目前都身负赤字，尤其 是那些从事煤炭运输的成员。 今年11月1日，广东省将成为 在包括水路运输部门在内的服 务业实行增值税退税的另一个 试点地区。

其它地 区的 消息：9月份， 政策性银行中国国家开发银行 将在大连建立一个船舶融资中 心。大连港也已获批在该市提 供融资服务，同时中国船舶基 金及一些拥有航运投资组合的 中国银行已在辽宁的这座城市 落户，使它成为一个新兴的船 舶融资枢纽。 沿海岸线方向，大量航运交 易所正在展开- 包括大 连、厦 门、广州、上海和青岛在内的 众多城市均提供这些服务。它

航运枢纽的竞争力，不仅仅来自 港口吞吐量的数字 “以 上 海当 前 在 这一税制 改革中的结果来看，航运业不 能从中获得任何好处。航运业 需要缴纳的税费甚至比以前更 高”，陈警告说。

们正日益成为融资备选网点。 2 0 0 9 年成 立的青岛国际航 运交 易所 的总 裁 逄 宗 玉 解 释 说，诸如船 舶融资、船 舶产业 基金和船只定价等高端服务在

山东仍然处于起步阶段，但目 前正在着手制定计划使这个细 分市场得到增长。 “目前船 舶融 资服 务 是 我 们希望实现增长的重要部分” ，逄 说， “我们帮助 船东找到 融 资 公司 或 融 资机 构以 及 产 业基金。我们正在努力扩大业 务，以形成全面的服务组合。当 然，这确实需要政府和有关部 门的支持。” 像中国 许 多 其它大 的 沿 海 城市一样，青岛正在努力争取 获得航运枢纽的地位，逄充满 睿 智地指出： “航 运枢 纽的竞 争力，不仅仅 来自港口吞吐量 的数字。” 基于总体性的悲观评估，庞 估计， “今 年的航 运市场将继 续低迷，我认为2016年之前不 会恢复。新船和二手船的价格 将继续下滑，但万箱级以上集 装箱船和液化天然气船的价格 预计将相对稳定。” Sinoship 2012年秋季刊

13

SHIP OWNERS

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商品

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全球一半以上的木材被运往中国

木业巨头 大连记者Mark Downing带来中国木材行业的详细资讯 在 其 畅 销 新 书 《W i n n e r Take All：China’s Race for Resources and What It Means for the World》（《胜者为王： 中国的 资源争 夺 战 及 其 对 世 界市场 的 意 义》）中，经 济 学 家 Dambisa Moyo 描述了中国 为获取 金 属、矿产、食品和木 材等大宗商品所开展的一项史 上规模最大的运动。为了确保 满足未来几十年的基本原料需 求，中国实施“走出去”战略。 根 据 这项战略，几十 年来，中 国的国有控股和民营资源公司 已在全球范围内锁定各类外国 资产。 例如，最近中国的主权财富 基金 — 中国投资有限责任公 司与俄罗斯国有的俄罗斯直接 投资基金合资设立了一只数十 亿美元的投资基金。预计到明 年年底，该基金的资产可能将 膨胀至 40 亿美元。该合资基 金公司的第一项投资将投向俄 罗斯最大的林业公司之一，投 资额预计将达 2 亿美元。该林 业公司向中国出口大量木材。 在木材贸易方面，中国已迅 速崛起，成为世界上主要的木 材贸易国之一。据澳大利亚库 克大学教授 William Laurence

博士称，全球市场售出的木材 有一半以上运往中国，使中国 成 为 世 界上 最 大 的 木 材及 木 制品进口国。在中国进口的木 材中，有三分之一被最终加工 成家具、胶合板和地板，用于 再出口。总部位于华盛顿的智 囊机构 Forest Trends 称，中国 生产的大部分木制品出口至欧 洲、美国和日本，为其赢得了“ 世界木材工厂”的称号。 虽然中国的森 林面 积可 观，但其人均森林面积仅约为 世界平均水平的五分之一，因 此尽管中国为实现环境和经济

的 6,000 万公顷人造林，中国 仍脱 颖 而出成 为 世 界上 人 造 森林面积最大的国家。 从去年年底开始，中国的经 济增速有所放缓。在此之前， 国 际 木 材 市 场 集 团 估 计，到 2015 年中国的木材总需求量 将从 2.5 亿立方米增至 3.5 亿 立方米，2020 年可能高达 4.5 亿立方米。预计在 2015 年，弥 补国内供应短缺所需的进口量 将达 1.5 亿立方米，高于 2008 年和 2009 年加拿大全国的木 材采伐量总和。到 2020 年， 中国的进口量将进一步扩大至

中国人均森林面积仅约为世界平 均水平的五分之一 的双重目标制定了雄心勃勃的 造林计划以扩大林地比例，其 木材仍仅可满足部分的国内需 求。中国国家 林业 局宣 布，自 1992 年以来，中国的森林总面 积已从 1.34 亿公顷增至 1.95 亿公顷。虽然大部分人造林相 对年轻，而且在中央林业计划 的实施过程中往往因自上而下 的腐败和浪费，导致产生数百 万公顷的劣质林，但凭借新增

2 亿立方米。 亚太 地区和 非 洲的 许 多国 家也向中国出口大量木 材。截 至 2012 年第一季度，西北太 平洋（加拿大和美国）是唯一 一 个 实 现 对 中国同比 增 长 的 主要木材出口区，两年内其市 场份额增长了四倍，达到 21％ 。而新西兰则占有25％的市场 份额，其余份额则由俄罗斯占 据。邻近的越南、泰国和印度

尼西亚等南亚国家则向中国蓬 勃发 展 的 造 纸 业供 应 其 所 需 的大部分木屑。 然而，随着中国经济增速放 缓，基础设施和住房投资的增 长 步 伐已经 减慢 至 近 十 年来 的最低水平。中国面临诸多不 确定因素，例如在 6,000 万套 空置公寓和别墅阴影笼罩下的 中国房地产存在大量泡沫，经 济刺激效应逐渐减弱，以及环 境监控和规管力度加强等。受 其影响，中国的木材产品贸易 已显著放缓。 尽管中国经济处于 衰 退 期，但许 多人 预 计，长期 来 看 进口仍将增加。根据麦肯锡全 球研究所的预测，从 2005 年 到 2025 年，中国城镇人口将 增长 3.5 亿人。有鉴于此， 去 年 举 行的木 材市场 全 球 木 材 产 品 大 会 估 计，中 国 将 新 建 500 万栋新建筑（其中约 50,000 栋为摩天大楼），产 生 37 亿立方米的新楼空间需 求。十 年来，中国的 林 木产品 进口总值从全球第七上升至全 球 第一。而未来十 年，又将发 生什么变化呢？可以预料的一 件事就是，中国将签署更多的 木材贸易大单。 Sinoship 2012年秋季刊

15

■ ■ ■ 物流

国内快递巨头的积极应对 联邦快递和UPS期待与国内快递公司近身肉搏。Jason Jiang报道称，他们会发现这并不容易 虽 然 当 局 可能 批准 授 予联 邦 快 递 公司[ Fe d E x] 和 联 合 包 裹 服 务 公司( U P S )国内 业 务 许可 证 一 事尚 未 成 定 局， 但 这已 经 令本 地快 递 运营 商 坐 立不安了。尽管如 此，美国 快 递 双 雄不 可能像 在 全 球其 他 地 方一 样，轻 易 地 攻 克 这 个市场。 在中国电子商务 快 速 发 展 的支撑下，快递市场于过去五 年一直保持着20%以上的年增 长率，2006到2010年间规模已 经翻了一番，去年的增长幅度 实际上已经超 过了30%。中国 国家邮政局预计，未来四年中 国的快递行业将稳步发展，到 2 015 年 年销售额 有 望 达 到人 民币1,430亿元。 联 邦快 递和 U P S 的 雄 心壮 志 将面 临 着 远比 三年 前 激 烈 的 竞 争，顺 丰 快 递 、圆 通 速 递、韵达快递和申通快递都已 摩拳擦掌，准备为获得市场份 16

www.sinoshipnews.com

额大战一场。 事 实 上，联 邦 快 递 和 U P S 早 在 之 前 就 已 经 开始了在中 国 国 内 的 快 递 交 付 业 务，但 2 0 0 9 年 中国 修 改 邮 政 法，强 制 要求 外 国 公司必 须申请 新 的许可才可继续在中国国内市 场运营。 与联邦快递和UPS不同，德 国的DHL于2011年宣布退出中 国国内快递业务，将其所有的 中国快递子公司出售给了友和 道通实业 集团。但是，这家欧 洲快递巨头依然将中国视为其 全球网络的重要中心。DHL于 今 年7月份在 上海投资1.75 亿 美元建造了北亚枢纽，这也是 最大的亚洲快递枢纽。 联 邦快 递 希望 在中国的八 个 大 城 市 开 展 快 递 业 务，包 括上海、广州和杭州。与此同 时，U P S已经申请在 五个城市 经营快递业务，包括西安和上 海。北京却未在任何一家公司

的名单之列。 中国 南 方 货 运 的 一 名官员 周达 表 示： “这将带来中国快 递业务的新一轮整合。”

国内运营商 总部 位于深 圳的 顺丰快 递 经 常被称为中国的联邦快递，是 该 行业 最积 极 扩展 业 务 的 运 营 商，目前 拥 有七架货机，并 且计 划到2 015 年 组 建一支 拥 有25架飞机的机队，货运能力 达15 0万吨，目标是 届时 完 全 控制中国四分之一的航空货运 业务。 继 顺 丰 快 递 之 后，另 一 家 中国国内快递公司圆通速递， 也已经于 6月份 开始了专用货 机服务。圆通速递以长期包机 合同的方式引入了三架B73730 0 货机。这三架货机将主要 部署在华南、华东和华北的主 要市场。 “之前我们主要依赖轮

子，现在我们也有了翅膀。”圆 通速递总裁喻渭蛟说。 “货机 大大改善了我们的服务，并且 提高了我们的效率。我们计划 在 未 来十 年 组 建一支 拥 有 2 0 架货机的机队。”喻 渭蛟补充 说道。 另 一 家大 型中国 运营 商申 通快递已经将其业务拓展到了 香港，今年正在向台湾和澳门 拓展。 “短期内，联邦快递和UPS 不会为国内快递公司带来太大 的压力。他们在中国的网络规 模现在还不足以与国内公司竞 争。”申通快 递的营销总监 夏 祖彬说道。 这 些 私营 快 递 公司的 掘 起 甚至威胁到了国有巨头中国邮 政快 递— 中国国内快 递市场 最大的公司。该集团的国内市 场份额逐步萎缩，已经从2006 年的接近60%，缩小到去年的 不足三分之一。

邮轮

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蓝星轮船公司(BlueStar)的泰坦尼克2号订单 或许是中国众多邮轮订单中的第一个

香槟预备 详述开创先河的两艘中国造邮轮的应运而生 时 光 转 瞬 即 逝 。中国的造 船 技 术以惊 人 的 速 度快 速 提 升，这个夏季 造船业迎 来了高 潮—建造邮轮的合同。之前， 为 保 护 欧 洲 境况 欠佳 的 造 船 业，最近十年间许多公司不愿 意在中国建造这种最高规格的 船型，而是 转向日本（三菱 重 工一直是亚洲唯一的邮轮建造 商）和韩国。 最 近，澳 大 利 亚 矿 业 巨头 Clive Palmer频繁见诸报端，他 在今年夏季公布了制造 泰坦尼 克2号项目（如图所示）的初步 计划和蓝图，由芬兰的国际船舶 设计和制造公司Deltamarin负责 设计。这艘邮轮将由中国的长江 航运集团金陵造船厂建造。 邮轮共有9层甲板，客舱分为 一、二、三等，还设有官员和船 员居住区，同时加入了一 个全

新的、十分重要的安全甲板。 Palmer 说： “这些计划彰显 了蓝星轮船公司有关泰坦尼克2 号的承诺和改进。”Palmer重新 启用了一个世纪前拥有泰坦尼 克的著名品牌蓝星(Blue Star)。 P a l m e r 称，从 D 层 甲板 向 上，Delta ma rin成功保留了与 原船类似的布局，公共房间、

加建了新的安全甲板，并且将 配备适当的救生艇、逃生滑梯 以及新的公共房间。 此外，还添加了新的逃生楼 梯、货梯、空调房间和类似的 设施，并在设计中增加了主防 火区，以将公共房间受到的干 扰降至最小。 G层甲板也经过重新设计， 现在配备有船员居住区、洗衣 间、商店和机器间。” 建造项目定于明年启动。首 航依然定于2016年底，设想是 泰坦尼克2号 先从中国航行到 英国，然后开始追溯最初的处

为确保 泰坦尼克2号 符合所有现 行的安全和建造规范，新加建了 一层安全甲板 乘客楼梯、客舱及其它特色设 施均完整重现。 “为确 保 泰 坦 尼克 2 号 符 合所 有 现 行 的 安 全 和 建 造 规 范，在D层甲板和C层甲板之间

女航程。Palmer暗示将会有更 多邮轮订单。 几乎在泰坦 尼克2号计 划 公 布 的 同 时，中 国 的 山 海 树集团和厦门环球邮轮有

限 公司 也 签 署了一 份 合 同， 将在厦门船舶重工建造 中国的 第一 艘自建 邮 轮。 中国 厦 门 号 邮 轮 的总 吨 位 达 10万总吨，计划将于2018年10 月下水，总投资约为4.88亿美 元，可搭乘2,000名旅客。 这艘巨型邮轮的设计将以中 国风格为主，是全世界第一艘 展现中国文化的邮轮。除了船舱 内的中国风装饰外，邮轮上的九 个餐厅中将有八个是中餐厅。 “由于是我们自己的邮轮， 设计邮轮航线和开发我们自己 的旅 游产品将更为容易。”山 海树集团子公司的首席执行官 黄炬表示。 “邮 轮 行业 为厦 门面 临困 境的造船企业提供了发展的契 机，让它们通过专注于建造豪 华邮轮，向这个行业的上游发 展。”厦门船 舶重工的一名官 员陈裕民说道。 即 使 暂不 考虑邮 轮市场 是 世 界上 兴 起 速 度 最 快 的 市场 这一因素，新增订单毫无疑问 也会翻一番。

迈阿密国际邮轮展上首发

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人物专访

坚持家族企业 许志坚强调在市场上长久立足的重要性

如

果您所在的造船厂销售部能 为 许 志 坚 建 造 上一 艘 或 两 艘新船，真可谓老天眷顾。 许志坚是台湾人，同时担任 私营公司Eddie Steamship和两地上市公司 Courage Marine的董事长，他手持巨额资 金，准备充分利用市场上廉价散货船的价 格，但他等待的时间往往比所有其他台湾 船主都长，一直等着价格进一步下跌。 “台湾船主非常精明，”香港一位船舶 经纪人称， “他们往往坚持到底，直到接近 新船价格周期的底部。” 对许志坚而言，价格就象一个小球，他 的目标就是在球下落到离地面只有几毫米 时就抓住它，绝不等它反弹。 SinoShip最近几个月在上海和雅典先后两 次采访了许志坚，在这两次采访中，他都强 调了长治久安和加入家族企业的重要性。 “船东行业动荡不定，”许志坚说， “家 族企业有利于持续开展业务，并记住坏事 是如何发生的。” 许志坚的家族业务可以追溯到85年前。 “我们世代与船 运银行打交 道。船舶 融资的负责人每四、五年就会更换一次， 有时候他们的任期甚至不到一个完整的周 期。”许志坚表示。 从业32年来，许志坚经历过80年代中期 可怕的五年衰退、2003年至2008年令人兴 奋的散货船订单新纪录，还有许多其他较 小周期。

“如果你没有一直 从事这一行或没有 听说过这些故事，”许志坚说， “我认为你 很难想象[波罗的海干散货指数]会在短短 两个月内从11,800跌至640，也很难想象航 运萧条能从1981/’82年持续到1987年。我 常常想该如何将这些事情解释给我的孩子 听，但这没法解释，超乎想象。” 由 于 他 之 前 经 历 过 萧 条 时 期，因 此 Courage和Eddie都始终 保持较低的债务 水平。事实上，许志坚回忆起在2007年和 2008年的股东年度大会上，许多股东屡次 指责他不投资更多船舶。而在今年的股东 年度大会上，还是这些股东，他们纷纷支持 许志坚，感谢他没有激进投资。 在过去十年的大多数时间里，Eddie和 Courage始终拥有10艘左右的散货船，这些 船从灵便型散货船到海峡型船只，规模各 异。如今，每家公司只剩下三艘船舶，因为 许志坚卖掉了大量有待报废的船舶。 他解释说： “最近，拆船价格极高，新船 价格急转直下且仍在走低，因此我们认为 现在正是最佳时机，让我们能以较高价格 卖出旧船，然后按几乎达到历史最低点的 价格购买新船。” 这些新船的价格到底有多低？对许志坚 而言，比最高价低50%以上他都不会出手。 一艘在2008年制造的新海峡型船售价 为1亿美元，在雷曼兄弟倒闭后不久，这艘 船的价格就迅速跌至5500万美元，但对许 志坚而言仍不够低。他的参考标准是台湾

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国际造船公司在新世纪初期左右为裕民航 运制造的一系列海峡型船，价格在3300万 美元左右。 当许志坚向处于困境中的造船厂高管举 出这个例子时，销售人员总是会说现在的 价格与十年前不可同日而语，因为钢板价 格、主发动机和劳动力价格都在上涨。 “他们总是强调说现在的价格已经接 近保本价，我们怎么能期望价格进一步下 跌。我会立即回答他们说，一定有规则能够 保证造船厂盈利，就象一定会有规则保证 船主能够盈利。” 最近，新船价格正接近谷底，许志坚承 认了这一点，并说明金海湾船厂(Jinhaiwan) 如何以每艘3650万美元的价格转售了六艘 海峡型船只。考虑到台湾国际造船公司十 年前的新船为149,000载重吨，而金海湾的 船舶为176,000载重吨， “你会说这跟台湾 国际造船公司的船只价格差不多。” 由此看来，这位台湾顶尖的价格魔法师 估计将很快拿起他最喜爱的合同签字笔了。

Courage/Eddie E ddie S teamship是许志坚 的私 有船东公司，历史可以追溯 到85年前，而Courage Marine成 立于2000年，并在新加坡和香港 上市。这两家公司今 年报 废了许 多船舶，同时将很快订购大批新 船。

家族企业有利于持续开展业务，并记住坏事是 如何发生的 Sinoship 2012年秋季刊

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人物专访

告别波动，迎接稳定 顾建纲告诉SinoShip，经济低迷阻止了投资者掌控船运业的灵魂， 这让他感到欣慰。

对

于 香 港 泰 昌 祥 轮 船 (“ T C C”) 有限公司的老板 顾 建 纲 来 说，经 济 低 迷 也 带来了些许安慰。就像大雨 过后，小鸟蜂拥而至，在湿漉漉的地面上 啄食昆 虫一样，船 运 业的不景 气至 少能 清除掉很多从一开始就制造麻烦的投机 者。 顾一直是大力反对如此之多没有任何 船运背景的投资者进入船运业的船东之 一。 长久以来，他对大批“游资”涌入船运 业感到不满。他告诉SinoShip： “人们在银 行大 举进 入、首次公 开募股 激 增时才开 始说船运业具有诱惑力。”

顾敦促说，鉴于很多最 近转向航 运 业 的投资人被 迫 退出该 行业，现在 正是 船 运业各构成团体齐心协力、确保这些人不 会再让悲剧重演的时候了。 顾 表 示： “我们船 运 业需要 提高进 入 壁垒。”同时补充说： “这是如今 造成行 业低迷的唯一最主要原因。” 在 指 出 进 入 壁 垒 完 全 瓦 解 时，顾 表 示，投资人像购买房地产一样购买船舶， 然后将其转交给管理人员。 他表 示： “船 运业被商品化了，船舶实 际上成了事后才想起来的东西。” 顾哀叹说： “没人会再谈论硬件。没人 会再谈论资产。过去几年里我们行业的整 个意义已经不复存在了。”

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这位香港船东指责船级社是造成不景 气的另一原因。 他认为： “他们需要对所有新涌现的船 厂持更为严厉的态度，那么，危机就不会 有这么严重了。”船级社是这一进入壁垒 的“守卫”，他表示。 “他们需要强制执行 进 入壁垒。这让我们这些 一贯谨慎的船 东在选择船厂时非常困难。” 顾认为，该解决方案可让船东、银行、 承 租 人、船东互保协 会和船 级社 携 手 合 作，敲定一套进入壁垒。 尽管承认 这次经济低迷的严重程度“ 史无前例”，但是顾仍实现了TCC的稳定 运营。 “ 我 们 在 做 三代 以 来 一直 在 做 的 事 情。”这位52岁的老板表 示，他公司的历 史可以追溯到1917年。 “换句话说就是谨 慎、不忘我们的界限，做经过检验证明是 可靠的、香港船东通常会做的事情。 “无 论市场好坏，香 港船东都 擅长保 持长期关系的稳定发展。”他说，同时表 示本地船东从不“孤注一掷”，而是 会以 让双方都满意的价格租船。 顾表示： “我们一直推行内部‘首先想 到’策略，这样，如果承租人有货物，他们 首先想到的是我们。” 香港船东另外一个典型做法是在经济 低 迷时期更 新船队，这肯定是 未来几个 月TCC要做的事情，因为可以充分利用走 低的价格。 TCC船队目前拥有十艘海峡型船舶、 一艘巴拿马干散货船、三 艘阿芙 拉 型油 轮和一艘超大型油轮。 顾透露说： “我们与几家石油巨头往来 频繁，也做了很多船队更新的工作，我们 的油轮将从四艘增加至 六艘，然后 看 看 接下来的情况。” 顾 表 示，将 再 增 加 一 些 阿 芙 拉 型 油 轮，因为它们是“油轮行业真正的主力” ，并且这种船型的订购量比较少，TCC拥 有20年阿芙拉型油轮的交易历史。

泰昌祥轮船集团 泰昌祥于1917年 在 上海成 立， 是一家报关行。1920年代成为船 东。公司更名为香港泰昌祥轮船 有限公司。1983年香港泰昌祥正 式成立。目前船队拥有11艘散货 船和4艘油轮，不久将另购两艘阿 芙拉型油轮。作为香港最知名的 船运公司之一，泰昌祥的老板为 第三代传人顾建纲先生。

我们船运业应该提高进入壁垒，这是如今造成 行业低迷的唯一最主要原因 Sinoship 2012年秋季刊

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■ ■ ■ 人物专访

魏家福被认为是这个行业最出色的演说家之一

站在国际舞台 在又一场“航运达沃斯”盛会即将开启之际，SinoShip 对中远这位伟大的舵手， 令人振奋的魏家福船长做一概括

走

进 魏 家福船 长 北京的办 公室你可以马上感觉到身 处一个强大的气场之中。 办公室的墙上装饰着无数 这位中远老板的照片，记录他过去20年与 世界前沿的政治家们一起走过的路，办公 室任何有空档的地方都被他的荣誉，奖状 和纪念奖杯填满了。 某天他将从中国最大的航 运巨头中远 集团的领导人位 置 上卸 任，而 魏 家福光 辉的职 业 生涯将 他推向了这个行业的前 沿。接 任 他的是马泽 华，他于19 7 7年加 入中远，像魏家福一样，在中国海运任职 前他曾在国内和海外 担任了许多重 要职 位。他成为了中远去年在香港上市的旗舰 公司中国远洋控股的总经理。 魏家福的职业道路在许多方面都走在 中国自身发展及“走出去”战略的前沿。 魏家福，1950年出生于江苏省，在20世纪 60年代作为一艘船上的无线电报员加入国 有大型企业中远，此前魏家福曾就读于大 连海事大学和天津大学。在海上的工作中他 不断提升级别成为了一名船长，之后回到岸 上并在国内和国外担任了各种领导职位。 1992到1998年间，魏家福成为中坦联合 海运公司，中远天津远洋以及中远散货运 输的总经理。他监管了中远（新加坡）公司 的成立，这是中远的第一笔进入国际资本 市场的投资，并在1993到1995年间担任其

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www.sinoshipnews.com

总裁，在1998年成为了整个集团的总裁兼 首席执行官。去年，他移职担任公司的董 事长。 魏家福的国际扩张策略，并使一半以上 的子公司上市，以便更灵活的参与市场，可 能会是他留给中远的最宝贵的财富。他几 年前曾对 SinoShip的编辑说过:“把中远从 一个国有企业转变成一组多样化的上市公 司是我最值得骄傲的成就，”在新加坡， 香港和上海的多个上市见证了这种演变。

魏家福经常担任中国 的大使 在魏家福的领导下，集团公司已多元化 发 展多 个业 务 领域，包 括 空中和陆上物 流，造船和码头营运，业务遍布全球。魏 家福常常作为中国的大使，与各国家总统 建立良好关系。他与美国建立的交易，是 他最伟大的成就之一。此前，中远曾难以 进入这个市场，由于美国联邦海事委员会 将其列为受控承运人。11年前中远与时处 困境中的波士顿港建 立合资公司是 魏家 福对美国市场做出的一项重大突破。自从 那时起，中远成为了一个巨大的跨太平洋 营运的公司，这是政府官员从未忽视的一 件事；几年前，美国国会众议院将魏家福 誉为美国人民心中的“民间大使”，这是

该 荣誉第一次 颁发 给中国公民。根 据马 萨诸塞州众议员Stephen Lynch所述，中远 集团是目前在美国最大的中国雇主。 魏 家福也被认为是行业中最 好的，最 激动人心的演讲者之一。当他站在台上， 人们会 认真的倾听。他在2 0 0 4 年创办的 国际海运（中国）年会已理所当然地赢得 了“航运业达沃斯”的称号，每年在这里 云集了世界顶级船公司的总裁们。今年九 月在厦门将会是这位航运业巨人参加的 另一次重大盛会。

中远 成 立于19 61年中国远洋运输( 集团) 公司（中远）拥有8 0 0多 艘船舶，是世界上第二大的航 运公司。多元化的控股业务包 括集装箱船，油轮，散货船，造 船厂，物流和港口营运。国有公 司，但多家子公司在亚洲股市 上市。

人物专访

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足智多谋，谨言慎行 慧洋海运总经理郑俊声凭借务实的态度努力打造近100艘船舶的船队

如

果像许多人（包括 第37页的 专栏作家 Max Hong）预测的 那样，干散货船市场将分化 为两级，那么郑俊声将竭尽 所能进入顶级。 燃油效率是新的咒语，引申开来，在如 今现金紧缩的新经营环境下，行业本身会 发现，在可预见的将来，船队平均船龄可能 很快限制全球散货船队盈利的潜在能力。 慧洋海运总经理郑俊声管理着一支约 80 艘船舶的船队，截至 7 月中旬，船队的 载重吨位达到了 259 万总载重吨，平均船 龄仅 6.29 岁。而且，今年还会新增三艘船 舶，并且到 2015 年再增加 19 艘，这将进一 步降低船队的平均船龄。此外，纵观整个 船队，未来还将有六艘船舶会出售。 慧洋的船队包括各种规模的散货船，以 及一些多用途船，甚至还有几艘滚装船。自 13 年前创立起，船舶类型搭配合理就一直

是慧洋重要的立足之本。 郑俊声表示： “短期而言，我们的新船订 单将陆续完成。除了扩大船队规模，我们还 将增强船队的多样化和经营效率。在大约 两三年内，我们的船队将达到 100 艘，这也 是本公司船队发展的一个阶段性目标。” 郑俊声接着解释说，扩充到船队中的船 舶并非标准船型，而是重点强调节能设计。 “通 过 开发 最 新、最高品质的船型， 我们希望可以更进一步提升船队的经营效 率，以便与我们的业务合作伙伴更好地协 作。”郑俊声表示。 郑俊声预计今年的市场不会景气回升， 而且到 2013 年下半年商业环境才有望好 转，同时产能过剩对海峡型船舶造成的影 响最大。 “过度投资和市场参与者良莠不齐是引 发这一波经济低迷的主要原因，因此我们 必须通过市场机制适度淘汰投机分子，让

过度投资和市场参与者良莠不齐是引发这一波 经济低迷的主要原因

仅追求短期利益的船舶运营商和船厂离开 市场。”郑俊声表示。 慧洋坚定地推崇长期租船合同，而不是 现货交易，并相信财务稳定性远比一夜暴 富重要，也更能占得住脚。郑俊声强调说， 在打造百年船队的过程中，慧洋将“专注于 长期和稳定的合作伙伴关系”。

慧洋海运 慧洋海运成立于 1999 年，2010 年 在台北上市。慧洋是台湾规模最大 的散货船运营商之一，目前拥有一 支 80 艘船的船队（259 万载重吨） ，平均船龄为六年 — 其中 66 艘为 自有船舶、9 艘为光船租购，5 艘为 管理船舶。

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前途一片光明 SinoShip 近期关于LNG的白皮书独家摘要

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国至 2 0 2 0 年 将 需 要 6 0 艘 新 的 液化 天然气 运输船，以达 到十二五计 划规定的能源目 标。未来至 少有五家中国造 船厂将承 接 制造 这些高规 格的船 舶，而 目前仅有沪东中华造船 集团有限公司一 家。中国的接收站数量也将由目前正在运 行的五个提高到14个，2016年之后还将根 据需求，考虑再增加10个接收站。随着全 球 液化 天然气 船队需 求高涨，液化 天然 气船运业的面貌也发生了巨大改变，首次 出现蓬勃发展的现货市场。 以上统计数据是SinoShip最近公 布的L NG白皮书的主 要调查结果， 其中多 数内容来自于渣打银 行和 Watson,Farley&Williams律师行赞助的六 月SinoShipLNG商务早餐会上的讨论。 2011年中国的天然气消费量为1317亿 立方米，是2000年245亿立方米的五倍。 但是，根据GlobalData最近公布的能源行 业分析报告预测，该消费水平还将快速增 加，2020年可达3750亿立方米左右。 国际能源署(IEA)认为，中国在未来五 年内天然气消费 量将翻 倍，成 为全 球 第 三大天然气进口国。 中国国内也拥有大量的天然气储 量， 但需求量已经超过了生产能力，必须依靠 进口弥补差距。自2007年起，天然气消费 量就超过了国内生产量。 据 预 测 ，中 国 的 天 然 气 进 口 量 将 由 2 011年的2 81亿 立方米 增加至2 02 0 年的 年约770亿立方米。 美国船级社(ABS)全球燃气开发副总裁 WilliamSember说： “中国是液化天然气需 求大国。中国市场的增长速度也最快。” 截 止2 011年底，中国运营的五个L NG 接 收 站总再气化 产 能 约为1万亿 立 方 英 尺 。随 着 其 他 九 个 接 收 站 陆 续 投 入 运 营，到2016年底，该数据将攀升至2.8万亿 立方英尺，年平均增长率为19.7%。 来自A B S的S emb er 认为，由于目前的 LNG 船舶的费率与去年年底相比几乎翻 番，涨 至14万美 元 /天，因此 新建船 舶价 格也将上扬。 A B S 的 统 计 数 据 显 示，到 今 年 五 月 底，全球共有372艘LNG船舶在运营中， 另外还有68艘在订购中。 Sember补充说： “到2020年，全球将需要 新建140艘，其中约有60艘将在中国建造。”

沪东中华率先领跑 上海沪东中华造船集团有限公司于20 08 年4月交付中国第一艘LNG运输船“大鹏 昊”。 24

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大 鹏昊交 船日期比原定计 划推 迟，且 在 运营的最初几个月遇到了一 些 技 术问 题。 从 那 以 后，沪 东 中 华 在 建 造 此 类 对 技 术 要 求 极 高 的 船 舶 方 面 不 断 进 步。 截 至 目 前，沪 东 中 华 已 经 建 造 并 交 付 了五 艘 采 用 G T T N o . 9 6 薄 膜 型 围 护系 统 的14 .7 万立 方米 的 L N G 运输船。 另 外 ，还 有 六 艘 相 近 规 模 的 运 输 船 在 建 造 中 ，即 将 于 今 年 年 底 交 付 。 2 011年7月，沪东中华又签署了一 份价值 为8.8 亿美 元的合同，将为商船三井株式 会社(MOL)和中海发展股份有限公司组建 的合资公司建造四艘LNG运输船。 每 艘 L N G 运 输 船 运 能 为17. 2 万立 方 米，将从澳大利亚和巴布亚新几内亚将埃 克森美孚的LNG运往中国。 M O L 已 经 派 出5 0 名 技 师 前 往 沪东中 华，埃克森美孚也派出了30名技师，帮助 建造这些船舶。 中 海 发 展 股 份 有 限 公 司 同 意 为此 笔 最 新 订单提 供 3 0 %的 资 金 ，M O L 则 负 责 其 余 部 分 的 资 金 。 这 四 艘 L N G 运 输 船 预 计 将于 2 0 15 年 和 2016年间交付。 ABS的高级管理技术总监GeorgeWang 表示： “沪东的第一批LNG运输船在设计 上是合作努力的成果。而目前这个系列主 要是自主研发。” 沪东的第一批和第二批运输船都使用 了相对较 老的推 进技 术，包括低 速 推 进 系统和再 液化 装 置。韩国是 L NG 运输船 建造领域的市场领导者，他们越来越多地 使用双燃料柴油(DFD)发动机。 Wa ng 说： “中国的下一批 L NG运输船 可能会使用双燃料柴油发动机。”

蓄势待发 不久之后，除沪东中华之外，至少还有另 外四家中国造船厂也将 投入 LNG运输船 建造中。 其中三家中国造船厂已经收到至少两 艘17万立方米L NG运输船 新建项目的资 格预审文件，这两艘船将与英国天然气集 团(BGGroup)合作在中国建造。 沪东中华造船 集团有限公司、大 连船 舶重工集团有限公司( DSIC)和南通中远 川崎船 舶工程有限公司( NACK S)已经获 邀参与投标。但目前尚未公布交付时间。 预计交付后船 舶 将由英国上市的英 国天然气集团和中海油能源发展 股 份 有 限 公 司 、中 远 集 团 及 招 商 局 的 合 资 公 司 中 国 液 化 天 然 气 运 输（ 控 股 ）有 限 公 司 ( C L N G ) 共 同 所 有。

中国第一 艘天然气运输船大鹏昊

SinoShip相信大 连船舶重工集团有限公 司有望赢得这份合同。 自20 02年以来，大连船舶重工集团有 限 公司已经制订了多 个不同的L NG 运输 船设 计方案。公司拥有13.8万、15万、17 万、21万和27.9万立方米的LNG运输船的 设计方案，均采用GT TNo.96薄膜型围护 系统，同时还包括一份14万立方米的Moss 型设计。 该集团的长294.5米，17万立方米的设 计采用了双燃料柴油(DFD)发动机。 未来预计还会有大量中小型LNG运输 船即将 投 入 地区和 沿海贸易，在 这 方面 大连船舶重工集团也有不少现成设计方 案。公司拥有一系列船舶，其上的圆筒形 储 罐容量 从 2 5 0 0立方米到1万立方米 不 等，分二到三个货舱。其中最受关注的当 数该公司开发的带双叶型储罐的船舶，容 量从8000到30000立方米不等，分二到四 个货舱。 同时，中远集团和日本川崎重工业公司 (KawasakiHeavyIndustries)组建的合资企 业南通中远川崎船舶工程有限公司也 跟 随潮流推出了Moss型L NG 运输船。川崎 重工业公司在日本拥有建 造中型Moss型 L NG 运输船的悠久 历史。南通中远川崎 船 舶工程有限公司推出的运输船容量在 14.5万至17万立方米之间。 此外还有中国最大的民营造船厂江苏 熔盛重工有限公司。 A B S的Wa n g 说： “熔盛 拥有自己的理 念和设计。ABS去年开始与其进行联合研 发。他们侧重于GTTNo.96薄膜型设计。”

液化天然气

双燃料柴油发动机也被纳入熔盛的设计 之中，包括17万和20万立方米的容量。 六月，熔盛 重 工、大 连 船 舶 重 工集团 有限公司和沪东中华向中国石化和中海 发展股份有限公司提交了一系列的标书， 涉及 六 艘 17 万立 方 米 的 L N G 运 输 船。

现货市场的崛起 随着全球 液化天然气船队需求高涨，液 化天然气船运业的面貌也发生了巨大改 变，首次出现蓬勃发展的现货市场。长期 （20-25年）合同的传统模式正在变化。 三年前，现货市场仅占LNG 船 运市场的 10%，而现在已经提高至30%，而且还在 不断上升之中。 离岸业务专家戈朗（上海）海事技术 咨询有限公司(GrenlandGroupAsia)总裁 DavidWu表示，韩国目前订购的LNG新船 有80%都是投机性行为。 Wu说： “美国现在也开始出口，贸易正 在发生变化，现货市场将越来越壮大。” 他还说： “现货市场在日本地震之后快 速发展，尤其是现在，越来越多的中小型 LNG运输船将用于地区贸易和沿海贸易， 这些往往都将进入现货市场。” ABS的GeorgeWang也持大致相同的观 点，他说： “我们预计不久将出现更多的

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最 后，今 年 七 月，南 通 明 德 重 工 有 限 公司与总部 在 美国的剑 桥 能源集团 (Ca mbrid geEnerg yGroup)签署了战略协 议，将联合开发LNG船舶和物流。 根 据该协议，两个 集团将联 合 开发并 建造五艘（还可能追加四艘）14万立方米

的LNG运输船和10至12艘2万至4万立方 米的LNG运输船，以及两个浮式液化天然 气(FLNG)项目，每个年产能为200万吨。 南通明德重工有限公司总裁季风华表 示： “这对于明德重工而言是新的突破和 挑战。”

小型LNG运输船，推动地区贸易并改变态 势。” 中海油最近委托国有造船厂中国船舶 工业集团公司设计用于沿海贸易的小型 LNG运输船。这家能源巨头预计不久将订 购30艘此类船舶。 来自上海咨询公司Ac c ord M a r i ne的 BenZhang表示： “早在上世纪80年代，很 少有人会想到超级油轮(VLCC)会有现货 交易的一天。但单单中国一个国家就还需 要50至60艘LNG运输船，是否就足以支撑 起一个健康的现货市场？” 银行家们对于此种发展大感吃惊。 渣 打 银 行 船 舶 融 资 总 监 AbhishekPandey说： “投机性LNG运输船 建造极具挑战性。银行家们对于短期合约 持保留态度。只要不涉足现货市场，公司 成本固定，唯一变动的是利率。如果进入 投机层面，将大大提高风险，需要有娴熟 的操作技巧。” 来自Watson,Farley&Williams律所的

MadelineLeong也认为现货市场发展很 快，但船东寻找融资非常困难。 渣打银行的Pandey说： “如果从长期市 场，即项目融资转到现货市场，就必须改 变目前的项目融资方式。鱼和熊掌不可能 兼得。如果想要建造拥有强劲现货价格投 机性的LNG运输船，客户就必须提供企业 担保或更为诱人的结构，如利润分享。银 行销售并返租LNG运输船在未来成为可 能。现货市场从10%到30%是一个不小的 范式转换，银行也必须采取相应的行动， 逐渐改变银行融资结构。浮式生产储油 卸油船(FPSO)已经出现了风险共担的合 同形式，LNG运输船可以借鉴。 Leong表示： “如果（现货市场）的确发 展很快，金融机构也应该像对待其他船舶 细分市场那样对待它，看到其周期性。”

如 果 您 希 望 获 取 S i n o S h i p 长 1 1页 的 L N G白皮书，请发 送电子 邮 件至s a m @ asiashippingmedia.com

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偏重中国 SinoShip就中国日益增强的重要性向主要国际海运法律事务所展开民意调查

中

国在船 运界的崛起自然的引 起了法律服 务方面的改 变。 如 今，所 有主 要 的国际 法 律 事务所 都至 少在中国的一 个 地方设立了办事处，有些甚至设有三个办 事处。 使用受中国法律管辖的文件和仲裁也是 一种趋势。 “在我们看来，有趣的地方是，”英士律 师事务所(Ince & Co)的Peter Murray说， “ 中国法律一直与时俱进，完全准备好了付诸 实践。（中国法律）被海外各方所接纳既是 商业现实，也体现出中华人民共和国海商 法与其他先进经济体的海商法之间并非两 重天。” 不过，英国、中国香港和新加坡的法律 将在船运、能源、保险和国际贸易领域一 直保持其相关性，其礼律师事务所(Clyde & Co)的张逸伟(Ik Wei Chong)强调说。马 来西亚Messrs Fuzet Farid的一名合伙人 Fuzet Farid说： “有意思的是，新加坡的法 律和仲裁作为国际各方之间的妥协性管辖 权，面对英国法律或伦敦仲裁时开始渐占 上风。”

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在争端的解 决 上，伦敦仍 然是首选审 判地，威宝律师事务所(Wikborg Rein)的 Gveir Sviggum这样表示，但随着亚洲在世 界上逐渐占据主导地位，新加坡和香港的 地位得以巩固，成为伦敦强有力的竞争对 手。这位挪威的律师表示说： “中国客户更 愿意选择离家近的香港。”

被海外各方接纳是商 业现实 其 礼律师 事 务所的张 逸伟 指出，中国 的海事法庭和仲裁机构，如中国国际经济 贸易仲裁委员会(CIETAC)和中国海事仲 裁委员会(CM AC)，在方法上已经非常成 熟， “在解决涉及中国元素的争端方面很 受欢迎”。 在接受本文民意调查的律师中，所有人 都承认的一点是，对中华人民共和国国旗 和中华人民共和国船舶抵押权的使用增长 速度较慢。 “ 当 然 ，沿 海 贸 易 权 条 例 规 定 ，国

内 运 输 工 具 必 须 使 用中 华人 民 共 和 国 国旗，”英士律师 事 务所的Mu r r ay 解释 道， “但是如果在全球的船舶贸易中能够 更 经常地 看 到中华人民 共和国国旗，那 就太好了。” 所有法律事务所都可以非常熟练地使 用普通话提供法律服务，这种服务的重要 性与日俱增。英士律师事务所的Murray指 出： “有意思的是，普通话在应对专业的 海事和法律术语方面毫不逊色。” 最近英士在北京设立了一个办事处，同 时还有其他一些事务所也盯上了首都这块 宝地，其中包括威宝律师事务所和其礼律 师事务所。 其礼律师事务所的张逸伟说： “随着来 自中国各大银行和国有企业的委托事务的 增多，我们也在认真考虑未来在北京成立 办事处。” Watson、Farley & Williams (WFW)今 年进入中国，并在香港开设办事处，在全 球都 有着宏大的计 划。合伙 人M adeline Leong说： “我们的目标是使公司的规模在 现有的基础上扩大三倍，并以中国大陆为 基础建立更大的客户群。”

法律

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朝着正确方向小步前进： RQFII和QFII

中

国最近 对外国投资者投资中 国股市的监管规则进行了新一 轮的调整，预示着中国继续在 试探性地朝着人民币国际化前

进。 根据去年12月份公布的规则，人民币合 格境外机构投资者(RQFII)可以申请配额， 以使用在香港筹集的人民币资金投资中国 证券市场。要取得该资格，投资者必须是由 中国证券监督管理委员会（中国证监会）批 准的中国基金管理公司或证券公司的香港 子公司。目前，这是在中国境外持有的人民 币资金投资国内市场的唯一途径。 中国当局小心谨慎，从制定政策的监管 机构对投资水平的控制中即可见一斑：作 为RQFII，如果被认定其未能以‘有效的’ 方式（‘有效’尚未定义）使用其配额，国 家外汇管理局可以降低或取消其配额。 然而，监管机构正在逐步放松规则的严 格限制。4月份，配额由最初的人民币200亿 元增加了人民币500亿元。6月份，有报道称 保险公司很快将获准参与RQFII机制，中国

人寿和平安保险等已经在香港设立资产管 理部门的保险公司将首先从中获益。 中国同样放松了合格境 外机构投资者 (QFII)的管理规则，该规则允许中国证监 会批准的外国机构投资者投资中国证券市

场。4月份，配额由最初的人民币300亿元增 加了人民币500亿元。6月份，QFII的资格门 槛由投资者需持有至少50亿美元资产和至 少具有5年的资产管理经验，降低到只需持 有5亿美元资产和具有2年资产管理经验。

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租船纠纷的热门话题惹众怒 Sam Chambers曾经参加过数百次会议,但从没有一次像近期在上海召开的一个法律研讨会这么激烈 28

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法律

最

近 在 上 海 举 办 的 TradeWinds Shipping China活 动上,一次有争议的研讨会招 惹众怒，一位愤怒的中国代表 甚至要求将会议主席逐出门外。 中远航运、大新华物流和最近的洪祥航 运等许多重要的中国航运公司拖欠船租成

为新闻焦点，在中国举行的有关租船协议的 任何讨论都有可能引起争议。 威宝律师事务所上海分所合伙人兼研讨 会主席GeirSviggum表示，中国的船主和租船 人有签署合同的“灵活”方法。他说： “中国 的非法律文化破坏了文件的整体内容。”他 认为，中国是一个不成熟的市场，运作人员

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缺乏经验，许多合同是在市场的高位签订， 航运公司只有很少或根本没有现金储备用 于应对经济衰退。 Sviggum指出，文化冲突意味着中国人倾 向于以停止付款作为“重新谈判的邀请”， 而西方的船主则倾向于在所有未支付款项 全额支付之前，不要讨论任何事情。 对于中国人的“畏惧冲突”，Svig g u m 说： “当情况变得困难，比以往任何时候都 需要沟通时，中国人往往会停止沟通。” 希 腊 Va f i a s G r o u p 的 首席 运营 官 Lambros Babilis称，中国的小型私人公司最 难打交道，该集团是向中方追讨拖欠款项 的公司中最知名的一家。 “大公司则不一 样，他们会尝试重新谈判，并且能推翻他们 最初的错误判断。”他补充说： “中国的大公 司通常力图采取强硬措施。” 香 港 其 礼律师 事 务所 律师A nd r ew Meadows认为，中国公司之间的确存在“成 熟程度”的差异。他承认，有些公司确实在 采用鸵鸟方法-将头埋进沙子里。他的建议 是对母公司进行尽职调查、谨慎对待自己作 出的保证以及确保租船者在国家外汇管理 局(SAFE)登记注册。 Meadows同时强调，并不是只有中国人懂 得利用法律框架。 香港华光海运控股有限公司的首席执行 官Tim Huxley认为的确如此。 “重新谈判的 不仅仅是中国人。”他说道，并列举了新加坡 Armada、韩国大韩航运和日本三光作为主要 的国外例子。Huxley表示中国确实存在一定程 度的自大，但绝不仅仅是中国人才会这样。 Huxley的建议十分明确。 “管理对手方 并评 估对手方风险是任何船主最基 本的 职责。” 最受中国代表欢迎的是英士律师事务 所上海分所合伙人Gerald Yee。他说，18个 月前的中国航运法律环境就像一个“暴躁 的少年”，而现在，业务环境已经发生了改 变。他认为“他们是十分精明的商人”，并表 示中国人的经营方式就像希腊人在20世纪 七八十年代的方式。 “他们越来越具有法律意识、会更仔细地 审查合同……中国已开始接受法律文化。” 与Sviggum的“灵活”言论不同，Yee称中 国业务就像流水。 “当碰到一个石块时，它 会绕开、覆盖并将其掩埋。” 与会者对Vafias集团的Babilis提出的重新 谈判看法不一，部分人认为这种做法不利于 业务、声誉和银行关系，并且会带来波动。 其他人却有不同的观点。Stena附属公 司NorthernMarine北京办事处的DarrenEllis 说： “重新谈判是基本的通用商业惯例，并 不仅仅在中国才这样。” 英士律师事务所的Yee强调，诉讼应始终 是最后的选择，他认为中国人已经将这一想 法深深烙在心里，并且总是希望首先进行对 话。面对航运的发展良机，Yee提出了一个令 人难忘的法律箴言：谈判为先，对抗其次； 对抗为先，诉讼其次；诉讼为先，玉石俱焚 其次。 Sinoship 2012年秋季刊

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世界船旗国瞄准 中国业务 Sam Chambers报道各大船舶注册机构正在大中华区设立办事处

大

中 国 区 的 船 队 是 世 界上 增 长 最 快 的 船 队 ，无 怪 乎许多船 舶登记机构正 在 努力 扩 大 自己 在 该 地 区 的 影 响 力。有 些 船 舶 登 记 机 构 已 在 该 地区设 立了五 家办 事 处。 每个国家都对船旗国有不同的要求。 由于中华人民共和国船旗国存在诸多限 制，中国的需求正在日益增加。 马 恩 岛 船 舶 登 记 机 构 主 管 Dick Welsh向Sino Ship讲述了在他心目 中，中国船主 选 择 船旗国的 优 先 考虑次 序。 “拥有国际贸易船队的中国船主正在 寻找高品质的船旗国。”他说。 基 里巴斯船 舶登 记 机 构的一 位 主 管Wu Siong Yen对此表示绝对赞同，并 称“中国的 船主 很 挑 剔，他们 希望 从 船 舶登 记机 构获得 便 捷和优 质的服务。” 基里巴斯船 舶登记机构在 上海、大 连、 福州和深 圳设有4 家办 事处，能够 提 供 7 天24小时的全天候快速响应服务。

希腊 船 运公司竞 争，中国船主 正在寻 找 强有力的国际船旗国。”利比里亚船旗社 的A l l is o n W i l l ia m s 称。在 利比 里 亚的 船队中，有近15％来自于大中华区。 “当 然，选择船旗国时，中国的船东可能也会 寻 找 具 有明显 金 融 优 势的国家。”她 补 充道。 马恩岛的Welsh 表 示同意，并说： “在 当前 的经济 环 境下，所有的 公司都 在 更 仔细地 甄 选船旗国。他们希望其船旗国 具 有成 本 效 益，以客户为中心，并 能 与 之建立良好的合作关系。”“当出现问题 时，船旗国的 援 助和务实态度是 至关 重 要的。”他补充道。 由于船 运公司希望通过白名单船旗国 在全 球一些港口国控制区被 列入低风险 名单，从而减少港口国当局的干预，因此 船旗国的品质也非常重要。 船东也 希望 登 记 过 程简单透 明。“作 为一家开放的船 舶登 记 机 构，我们接 受 所有国籍 船东的登记；我们的登记 过程

中国要在同一环境中与领先的德国和希腊船运 公司竞争 如今，在基里巴斯船 舶登记机构所服 务的船队中，有大约四分之一来自于中国 大陆、香港和台湾。 “为了在同一环境中与领先的德国和 30

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快 速、简便 且 方便客户操 作。如 果 需 要 的 话，我们也可帮助在 其他 船旗国进 行 双 /光 船租赁登记。”巴哈马海事局香 港 地区主管Jahangir Hussain船长说。

同样地，新加坡的船舶登记机构能够 快 速 便 捷 地 为 船 舶 登 记 新 加 坡 船 旗， 近年来已为大中华区数以百计的船 舶办 理了登记手 续。完整 提 交 所有相关 文件 后，船舶可在两小时之内完成登记。新加 坡船舶登记机构也提供提前登记服务， 为在外国港口交付的船舶提供便利。 中 国 的 船 主 半 数 为 国 有 公 司 ，半 数 为 私 人 公 司 。这 确 实 会 影 响 船 旗 的 选 择 ，基 里 巴 斯 船 舶 登 记 机 构 的 Wu Siong Yen说。 “在支持国家船舶登 记 机 构 或 雇用当地 船员方面，私营船 务 公司受到的限制较少。”他说。 对于 船旗国而 言，需要重 视的另一 个 重要方面是理 解和传播不断变化的国际

船舶登记

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改进的空间 Engen Tham指出中国作为船旗国所存在的问题

目

前已有越来越多的船舶以人民 币融资，其中大部分 需要在中 国登记。在中国登记的船舶涉 及公法和私法因素。在公法方 面，船舶需将中国作为船旗国，并遵守污 染控制和操作安全等国内法规。在私法方 面，船舶的所有权和抵押贷款须遵守中国 的登记管理规定，抵押融资的执行也须遵 守中国的程序。 虽然近年来人民币船舶融资风生水起， 但相关 系统和法规的改革似乎尚未及时 跟进，不能为登记中国船旗的船舶提供支 持：中国未设立集中的船舶登记制度，因 此船舶很难获得所有权及安全证明；船舶 抵押登记可能耗时七天，而在许多国家， 只需几个小时即可完成登记。对于融资者

相关系统和法规的改 革未及时跟进，不能为 登记中国船旗的船舶提 供支持 而言，这可能会引发优先度方面的问题； 由于中国实施外汇管制，某些情况下，交易 需获得国家外汇管理局 (SAFE) 的批准， 且批准过程耗时甚长（例如，如果抵押权 人是一家外国公司，则需要获得外汇管理 局的批准），而且中国在抵押贷款的执行管 理方面仍然未经检验，不同的港口有不同 的规则。

香港蒸蒸日上 法规。在过去10年中，为了平衡实际实践 与管制之间的关系，许多船旗国加入了国 际海事组织(I MO)和国际劳工 组织(I LO) 等机构，以提供具有建设性的意见。这一 点已经 越 来越关键。船旗国需核准 重 要 的国际公约，以确保在海上安全、环保和 社会责任方面做好万全准备。 “反 过 来，船 旗 国 应 及 时 向 船 主 / 营 运 人 告 知 此 类 核 准 ，并及 时 提 供 详 尽 解 释 ，就 如 何 应 对 新 法 规 提 供 指 导， 使 其船 舶可以 毫 不拖 延 或中断 地 继 续 运 营 。”负 责 马 绍 尔 群 岛 亚 洲 业 务 的 A n nie Ng 说 道。马绍尔群岛在香港、上 海、大 连和台北（近期已开业）均设有办 事处。

6月，香港 船舶注册处(HKSR)超越了7,600万总吨数的记录，为2,105艘船办理了登记 手续。这2,105艘船中包括1,880艘远洋船舶。从总吨位来看，约56％为散货船，20％ 为油轮以及19％为集装箱船。 据联合国《2011年海上运输审查报告》和丹麦船东协会公布的统计数据表明，近 年来在中国大陆船主的推动下，香港已成为世界第四大船旗国。 “内地船主一直是香港船舶注册处的重要支持者。”香港海事处的一位官员补充 道， “他们为香港船舶注册处贡献的总吨位约占40％。” 该官员称，作为船旗国， “香港的收费结构简单，吨位年费与其他船旗国相比较 低。”香港船舶注册处还免费或低价提供签发证书等其他服务。 此外，香港的税制简单，税赋较低，在香港注册的船舶在全球贸易中产生的利润无 须向香港纳税。在香港注册的船舶还可在中国所有港口享有港口费优惠。

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上海各大银行做好准备 上海记者EngenTham思考各中资银行的上海分行在船舶融资上的技巧纯熟程度 对许多中 资银行的上海分行 来 说 ，国 际 船 舶 融 资 仍 然 是 处于萌芽 期的一项业务 — 仍 需 对上 级 分 行 负 责、必 须 执 行 冗长 繁 琐 的 审 批 程 序， 而 且 经 验 不足 。这 种 情 况 使 银 行 和 借 贷 方 在 一段 时期内 都困惑不已。 中资 银行直到最 近 才 加入 这 场 混 战 。上 海 浦 东 发 展 银 行从 2 0 0 8 年开始为非中华人 民 共和国国 有的 船 舶 提 供 资 金，而中国建设银行上海分行 总共 仅为6 艘 船 舶提 供 过 资 金。2 0 0 8 年至 2 0 0 9 年，继 政 府 为了 将上 海 打 造 成 国 际 性 金融中心而提供了丰厚的刺激 方 案 和 其 他 激 励 措 施（如 与 2 0 0 9 年 在 上海设 立自由贸易 区相关的利益）之后，上海所 有分 行 开始 加 快 涉足 船 舶 融 资领域的步伐。尽管这两年发 展速度较快，但是许多上海分 行要 想在 成 熟 老 练 上 赶 超 伦 敦 等 地 的 银 行 似乎 仍 有 很长 一段路要走。伦敦那些银行在 船舶融资方面已经有了几百年 32

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的经验。 中国国家开发银行(CDB)上 海 分 行必 须 将所 有 融 资文件 提交北京总部审批，这会需要 好几个月的处 理时间。一旦得 到批准，若要对文件进行任何 实质性的修改（包括融资前的 放弃条件等）也都必须提交北 京审批。决策过程的集中化意 味 着 一 次 非常 简单 的 船 舶 融 资，耗时可能比分行有权自行

提供资金，但SinoShip了解到, 分 配 给 每 个 分行的 境 外 融 资 交易都是与特定国家相关的， 例 如 C D B上 海 分 行 负责 澳 大 利亚、新西兰和日本的境外业 务，而CDB辽宁分行则负责白 俄罗斯和乌克兰的境外业务， 因此 这 就 意 味 着 借 贷 人可能 无法要求由经验更丰富的某个 分行处理他们的交易。 一些中资银行的上海分行的

融资会给银行和借贷方都带来一 段困惑期 决策时耗时长两到三倍。 对 借 贷 人 来 说，这可能 意 味着融资延期，分行代表可能 也无法令其理解为什么会在一 项 融 资 文件上做 出 那 样 的 决 定。Sino Sh ip 很清楚，银行现 在还无意改变这一过程，这种 情 况 在中国 所 有C D B 分 行 都 存在。 尽管 许 多 C DB 分行为船 舶

经验比其他银行更多。交通银 行(BoC)似乎是船舶融资方面的 巨人，已经为30多艘船舶提供 了融资。只有在交易价值超过 一定数额时才需要提交船舶融 资文件 供审批，鉴于上海分行 是中国总部，您在与机构部门 交涉时需要跨越的官僚障碍会 更少。 BoC并没有按照资金流向的

国家来分配其交易，因此借贷 人很可能可以将自己的船舶融 资交易交由深谙船舶融资业务 的分行处理。 一些中资银行的审批程序可 能显得过于冗长，但鉴于某些 分行相对缺乏经验，这种做法 是必要的。 英士律师事务所(Ince & Co) 的合伙人许椿说： “中资银行 有必要实施这种审批程序，以 控制风险暴露程度。”英士是 一家航运法律事务所。 许椿与中国各大银行的不同 分行都有过合作经历，他认为 中资银行逐渐变得纯熟老练， 并 提高了速 度： “我看到中资 银行在效率方面有了极大的改 进，他们正在创建专门处理船 舶融资的部门，例如中国进出 口银行上海分行就在今年夏天 成立了船舶融资部，他们还在 为员工组织专业培训，他们都 非常努力。” 还不是所有中资银行的上海 分行都能做到业务熟练，不过 这看起来只是时间问题。

台北

■■■

朝着正确的方向迈进 台北已经意识到，强大的物流基础设施可以带来大量贸易和投资。据Joshua Samuel Brown报导，台 湾已投资数百万美元以确保其成为供应链的中枢

像高雄这样的一些港口已经接到了合适的指令

几 十 年 来 ，台湾一直以高水 准的物流业著称，然而在过去 十年中，海峡对岸无数竞争对 手的崛起已使台湾渐渐失去了 昔日光彩。但种种明确的迹象 表明，作为岛内支 柱 产业，物 流 业将 在 未 来 几 年 内吸引巨 额投资。 在 七月底于台北 举 行 的 一 场行业研讨会上，台湾行政院 院长陈冲(Sean Chen)强调了 物流业的重要性。 “鼓励物流业的增长 可以带 动岛内经济的发 展 。”陈 院 长 解 释 道 ，先 进 的 物 流 基 础 设 施 带 动了 更 多 的 外 国 投 资 和贸 易。 经济部长施颜祥(Shih Yens h i a n g ) 对此 表 示了赞 同，并 称 发 达 的 物 流 网 络对 推 动台 湾 的贸 易和 经 济 至 关 重 要。 政 府 希望 把 物 流 业作为台湾 的10大支柱产业之一。施颜祥 表 示，未 来 政 府 将 把 重 点 转

向中国大陆，挖掘海峡两岸的 物流商机。 为 此 ，作 为 岛 内 新 合 并 成 立的港口部门，由政府开办的 台湾 港 务 公司( T I P C ) 将 寻求 与中国港口达成协议。例如， 为 促 进 业 务发 展，T I P C 最 近 与 位于 中国 西 南 地 区 的广 西 北部湾国际港务集团签署了一 项意向书。根据该意向书的条 款，T I P C 将削 减 2 0％的 港口 费以 鼓 励 从 广 西 转 运 货 物。 除此之外，TIPC也与天津和广 州等中国港口签署了类似的意 向书。 在 现 有 的 六个 港口自由贸 易区的基础上，台湾又新建了 三个自由贸易区以促进出口。 目前此举措已见成效。台湾岛 内的六大自由贸易区包括基隆 港自由贸易港区、台北港自由 贸易港区、苏澳港自由贸易港 区、台中 港自由贸易港区、高 雄港自由贸易港区及桃园航空

货运自由贸易园区。在今 年前 五个月，这几个国际贸易区的 贸 易 额 相 较 去 年 同 期 激 增了 55％。 近些年，台北的航空业落后 于上海、仁川和香 港。为改 变 这种不平衡的状况，台北正计

发 展 ，其 所 惠 及 的 行 业 包 括 物 流 业和电子商务 等。 据 世 界 银 行 今 年 5月中 旬 发 布 的 报 告 ，台 湾 物 流业的全球排名上升一 位 ，升 至 全 球 第 1 9 名 。 世 行 最 新的物 流 绩 效 指 标显

鼓励物流业的增长可以带动经济 发展 划投资100亿美元在市郊建设 一座 配备 完 善 货 运 设 施 的 新 机场。 根 据当 地 的 统 计 数 据， 台湾 约 有 2 5 万人 服 务 于岛内 的1 2 , 0 0 0 家物 流 企 业。2 011 年，台 湾 物 流 业 的 收 入 超 过 1 . 4 万亿 新 台币（约 合 4 6 5 . 5 亿 美 元）。政 府 已 推 出 一 项 投 资 额 达 1 0 0 亿 新 台币 的 项 目 ，以 促 进 台 湾 服 务 业 的

示，今 年台湾得到了3 .71分， 整体表现为86.6％，而排名第 一 的 新 加 坡 得 到 了4 . 1 3 分。 在过去的三次调查中，台湾的 排名持续升高，从2007年的第 21名上升至2010年的第20名， 今年则继续攀升至第19名。台 湾的主要贸易竞争对手韩国今 年则名列第21名。 台湾准备加大投资，继续保 持这种上升势头。 Sinoship 2012年秋季刊

33

ASIA

跨太平洋海事 會議亞洲年會

shenzhen 深圳 2012

深 圳

17-18 October 2012 年10月17-18日 Intercontinental Shenzhen 深圳華僑城洲際大酒店

Container shipping & logistics has moved on in the last decade

We can bring you up to speed in two days Strategically located in the Pearl River Delta, once again senior level decision makers will gather at Asia’s leading container event to debate issues facing the container industry for trade – • Trans-Pacific • Asia-Europe • Intra-Asia •

www.tpm-asia.com Hosted by:

Organized by:

Platinum Sponsors:

香港

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造船业的演变 销量不佳怎么办？转向出口，自主经营。Alfred Romann对造船厂将阵地转移至香港的评论 中国 造 船 业正处于危机之中。 承接的新船订单总额只有去年 同期的一半左右。据中国船舶 工业协会(CANSI)称，今年上半 年船舶订单量下降了47％，仅为 954万载重吨。船舶出口也下降 了48％，仅为684万载重吨。今年 上半年，未完工船舶订单数量 较去年同期下降30.7％。 面对收入的骤降，造船者正 在探索其他的商业模式。 由于承接的新船订单量日益 减少，而且低成本信贷时期蜂 拥签订的昂贵合同 纷 纷 失 效， 越来越多的私营和国有中国造 船企业正转变为船东。这些造 船企业通常在香港设立自己的 新公司。作为中国的门户，香港 提供一站式的法律和银行便利， 但在其他方面基本上仍具有离 岸特征。

“确 有 其 事。在目前这种萧 条的状况下，这种事情在所难 免，”香港船东协会(HKSOA)常 务董事Arthur Bowring说， “在 这种市场条件下，没有人会订购 新船。” 这些新船东的目的是向中国 以外的地区出口新船，获取增值 税退税，同时保持对资产的控 制权。许多不良资产已被这个离 岸黑洞所吞噬，只能转化为光 船租船或定期租船。 民营的太平洋造船集团等许

多大公司率先在香港设立船东 公司。 今 年 早 些 时 候，太平 洋 造 船集团老板Simon Liang告诉 SinoShip，太平洋造船 集团将 利 用 其 香 港 子 公司皇 冠 船 舶 (CrownShip)更好地了解船主的 需求，并向客户提供替代的金 融解决方案。 如今，国有造船业巨头也在 效仿这一做法。其中，上海外高 桥、江南、沪东中华、澄西等公 司的控股公司中国船舶工业集

造船厂通常在香港设立自己的新 公司。作为中国的门户，香港提供 一站式的法律和银行便利，但在其 他方面基本上仍具有离岸特征。

团公司(CSSC)不久前刚在香港 特别行政区成立了航运公司。 这家造船集团在一份声明中 称， “此举将增强这家国营大型 企业的运营灵活性，并且可以在 其部分客户取消订单或拖欠账 款时避免廉价急售。” 中国 船 舶 工业 集 团 公司 表 示： “这 家公司将 参 与船 舶租 赁、海运运输、船舶销售、船舶 管理、投资、船舶和海洋设备相 关新技术的引入、船员管理以及 其他航运相关业务。”该集团还 表示， “香港作为金融中心、贸 易中心和航运中心的优势将帮 助中国船舶工业集团公司参与 国际市场的竞争。” 在当前航运业前所未知的低 迷情况下，随着众多银行签约 成为香港船东协会的成员，香 港的船东数量正在不断扩大。 Sinoship 2012年秋季刊

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■ ■ ■ 书籍

渴望增长 Paul French将眼光投到金砖四国之外 巴 西 、俄 罗 斯 、印度 和 中 国曾 一 度 被 誉 为 金 砖 四 国， 但 如 今 巴西 通 胀 高 居不 下、 俄罗斯风险高企、印度经济萧 条和中国不断降温，金砖四国 似乎少了点兴 奋。市场需要增 长，但 如 今 到 哪 里 发 现 增 长 呢？在Ruchir Sharma的新书 《Breakout Nations: in Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles》 里，他有一 些 想法，Ruch i r是 摩 根 士 丹利 投 资 管 理 公司新 兴市场股 票 与全 球 宏 观 经济 主管。首先，S h a r m a认为，这 并不是非此即彼的情形— 金 砖四国仍然会发挥重要作用， 事实上他坚持认为中国的消费 者仍有巨大的消费增长空间， 但 尚 未 展 示 给 全 球 经 济。然 而，新的经济巨人即将出现。 关于 世 界未 来 两 个万亿 美 元 经济体，Sharma下了两个大赌 注，他认为会是两个穆斯林民 主国家— 印度尼西亚和土耳 其。Sharma格外看好印尼，这 也是自19 97/19 98年亚洲金融 危机后少数主要经济学家的观 点，形容该国为“随心所欲的 地区”。 Sha r ma在更看好 一个国家 时，总是有合 理 的理由— 例 如，作为脱 颖 而出的地方，韩 国比台湾更胜一筹，因为首尔 是“荣获国际专利的五大国之 一”，而台湾可以说 更容易受 到外国的影响、更欢迎外国投 资，更加依 赖外国技术，而不 是发展自己的创新事业并从中 获利。创新会带来风险，也会 促进经济增长—土耳其流行 文化正席卷整个中东，就像韩 国流行文化横扫中国和东亚一 样。在此之后，韩国的男子乐队 及电影销售额在整个地区大幅 增长。土耳其也可以迎来类似 的增长。 欧 洲人也可以从 Sha r ma的 调查结果中获得启发。土耳其 位于欧洲东部边境，正请求加 入 欧 盟，而且 据 S h a r m a 称， 波兰和捷克发现自己位于欧洲 的“甜 蜜点”。这种观 点可能 少了些说服力—东欧不具 有 印尼或土耳其这样的潜在消费 36

www.sinoshipnews.com

饥渴的东方巨龙 中国可能会不断扩张，以获得食品和农业用 地，就象他们获得金属和燃料的方式一样

市场，也不可能成为流行文化 创新的大使。波兰或捷克毗邻 德国和西欧，这并非 坏 事，但 除了移民机会外，两国还必须 为自己的人民带来持久的经济 遗产。

家 带 来 严 重 的 后 果 。”依 赖 石油 赚 取 美 元 的超 级 大 国 俄 罗斯 境 遇不 佳。M o y o 在 她的 《Winner Takes All: How the West Was Lost》一书中预计， 商品短缺 将 导 致 全 球 陷 入 困

全球经济重新定位就在眼前 Dambisa Moyo是高盛的前 雇员，拥有牛津经济学博士学 位，是富有争议的国际经济学 家，现在她已加入了有关中国 的争论之中。M oyo和 S h a r m a 可能 都同 意一 件 事 — 过 度 依 赖 商品 并非 好 事。S h a r m a 认为， “现在的石油高热如同 2 0 0 0 年 的 状 况，将为 石油国

境，而 不只是中国，她认为中 国有意通过积极扩张获得商品 供应。 公 平 而 言，这 并 非 特 别 新 的 故 事，比 如 在 中 央 政 府 的 支持下，中国的矿业公司进军 非 洲 等。然 而，M o y o 还 解 释 了何 种 物 资 短 缺，何 种 不 短 缺 — 铝、棉花和小麦资源丰

富；铜、铅和锌则远远不够。 但Moyo认为这些商品并非 中 国 的 最 大 问 题 。中 国 最 大 的 问 题 是 食品。M o y o 预 计， 中国必然会不断扩张，以其在 非洲、中亚和拉丁美洲获得金 属和燃料的方式，获得食品和 农业土地。这也不是什么新主 题— 记者曾报道过中国近期 收 购 津巴布 韦农 业 用 地 的交 易，以及在中亚租赁大规模的 土地— 显然，农 业 用地 及其 控制是新疆和西藏等棘手地区 的核心问题之一。 从 这两本书中 得出的 重 要 讯 息 是 什么？世 界 在 不 断 变 化 — 由于 各种原因，老牌经 济强国经济停滞不前、新的经 济势力不断增强。全球经济重 新定位就在眼前。

意见

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新建散货船高峰带来厄运 Max Hong谈双层散货船市场的打造 新 建 散 货 船 高 峰 在市场 远 远 供 不应 求 的 背 景下 形成， 当 时 的 市 场 信 贷 政 策 宽 松， 租船费率不断上涨。而新造船 舶的主要目标就只是获得更大 的载重量。获得交付时机至关 重要。付款资金也轻松易得， 丰厚的租船费率推动资本价值 持续增加，令银行界笑得合不 拢口。 造船厂发现自己占了上风， 不仅能强加自己的价格，更重 要的是还能将其标准规格强加 于人。人们没有兴趣投入时间 和金钱去开发新的设计。 黑色、蓝色还是红色？涂料 的颜色大概是造船厂给客户的 唯一选择。 2 0 0 8 年10月，狂 欢 盛 宴 轰 然崩溃。就在清醒而镇定的新 力量 还 未完成 其 3 0 天改革复 苏计划时，中国政府于2008年 11月扔出了世界上最大规模的 信贷“炸弹”，推出一系列刺激 方案，房地产和基础设施建筑 项目席卷 整个中国，干货市场 迎来更宏大的需求周期。狂欢 之后，又可以重 整 旗 鼓，继续 狂欢！ 正如伟大的乔治.哈里森（已 故）曾简单地说“一切都 会成 为往事”。不可抗拒的市场力 量、物理学和重力与太多好时 光的刺激，带来了最 复 杂的“ 三角恋”后遗症。 高 峰 期 时，自 命 不凡 的 船 主、银行和造船厂忙于在V I P 包间互赠美酒，如今在一夜之 间黯然失色。放下前一晚喝酒 过度产生的幻觉，看看今天的 阳光，感叹昨夜如此诱人，揉 揉眼睛和疼痛不堪的脑袋，禁 不住要问： “我 都 带回家什么 了，我多快能够挥霍一空？” 事实上，它们并没有被挥霍 一空，我们还要靠它们生活， 即使它们几乎接不到能赚钱的 工作。是的，它们年 轻 但不先 进。这些高峰期时建造的散货 船往往耗资巨大，如今更是入 不敷出。 随 着现在的租 船费率进 入 长 期 低 盈 利 周 期 ，船 舶 设 计业 发现了新的增长领

未来的散货船将耗能更少

域—LPC（最低可能消耗）， 这是在薄利环境下勉强获得长 期正现金流的唯一方式。LPC 是生存促进的演变，也正与强 制执行的环保法规不谋而合。

散货创新的新摇篮。 如 今 的 倒闭潮 要求船只能 扩大造船能力，尤其在中国。 新船厂正在销声匿迹，而且没 有人为此感到痛惜。中国的国

第一阶层的船将比高峰期的一拨 更环保、更少数，成本更低，性 能更好 对于资金充足、对大量减少 的银行融资依赖较小的船主而 言，新市场环境正蕴含着大量 机会。如 今，他们正在寻 找渴 望新业务、既有时间又愿意讨 论新想法、设计和设备的造船 厂。由于日本深陷扭曲的日元定 价 结构中，韩国忙于从液化天 然气和离岸繁荣中获利，因此 只剩下中国可以作为新一代干

有企业开始重回重要地位。这 些政府控制的造船厂拥有稳定 的财务实力、多年的经验、大 幅改善的研发能力及当下先进 的生产设施，正吸引着新业务 前来，制造出新的散货船舶， 这 些 远 远 少 于 饥渴的高峰 期 新造船。 如果高峰期 新 造 船 是草 率 和图方便的产物，那么相比之

下，这些最新建造的船舶则采 用先进、深思熟虑和明智的设 计，使 用一些迄今 最高效、最 创新的主发动机，而所有这些 都在中国最好的造船厂精心打 造。 如今，市场正朝着两级市场 发展。在 未来12个月内，这些 采用 新 设 计 和 新 动力的 船 舶 将开始它们的贸易生涯。它们 将成 为 干 货 市场 的 第 一 级： 比高峰期新造船更环保、更年 轻、更少数，成本更低，性能更 好，而高峰期新造船将构成第 二级。 第一级新船的投资者坚定地 期望他们更具吸引力的船舶， 相比大量第二级高峰期建造的 散货船，将提供更好的终身回 报、成 为租 船客户的首选，而 后者由于建造过度，需求量下 降，可能成为迷失的一代。 Sinoship 2012年秋季刊

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■ ■ ■ 意见

顺势而为 Wikborg Rein公司的Steffen Pedersen和Geir Sviggum思考中国航运业的未来 中 国 作 为 航运业一支全球性 的力量（虽然目前尚不是主要 推动力量）在崛起，不过 直到 2008 年全球金融危机之后才开 始逐渐加快步伐。 一个值得思考的问题是，如 果航运业的重心转向亚洲,尤其 是中国，那么未来将会是怎样的 面貌和状态？ 中国人和西方人不同。这不仅 体现在日常生活方面，还体现在 对待契约和诉讼的态度方面。解 决争议时，中国人已经习惯采取 更务实的方法而非司法手段。结 果比过程更为重要。一般来说， 他们会通过谈判、露面并找出有 创造性（不一定是司法途径）的 方法来解决问题。 尽管如此，如果采取司法途 径有利于提升本方在谈判中的 相对地位，中国人也不反对做 出尝试。在很多情况下，威胁要 付诸 诉 讼/仲裁就足以得到想 要的结果。中国人行为中这种 纯实用主义层面直接来自于《 孙子兵法》，西方人往往并不欣 赏。中国的姿态经常被认为是 富有侵略性、缺乏尊重或不计 后果的边缘政策，而这正是兵 38

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法希望达到的状态。胆怯的对 手在面对难以预测的敌手时往 往具备更强的韧性。 如果这种实用主 义 统治 世 界，对律师和仲裁员来说可不 是 好 消 息 。尤 其 是 居 住 在 伦 敦的英国律师。但至少还有一 个 地 方 可以寻 求合 理 的 法 律 建议。但是，律师（以及“技术 性”法律解决方案）可能被看 做一局棋里无关紧要的棋子， 而不是制胜的关键。诉讼能够

正逐渐接受仲裁这种解决问题 的形式，而香港和新加坡自然 是首选的区域司法管辖区，它 们不仅与中国大陆位于同一时 区，仲裁法官可能（至少被认为 是）比多数伦敦的仲裁法官更 了解亚洲人的行事方式。 但同时，我们还是看到大量 的诉讼都有中国公司卷入，也许 在行业陷入困境时是不可避免 的结果。我们发现一般有两种类 型的西方对手：(i)眼光长远的公

一些船主会发现今后在中国做生 意越来越难 并且将会仅被用作向对手施加 压力、迫使其同意达成有利条 款的手段。至于仲裁，它的用途 也大抵如此. 但是，我们经常会遇到的一 种普遍看法认为，伦敦的仲裁 体系 不 利 于 中国的 诉 讼当 事 人。这自然和上面阐述的中国 人对诉讼的态度不无关系，但 也有可能是文化和语言方面的 问题。无论原因如何，似乎亚洲

司；(ii)眼光短浅的公司。后一种 往往是好斗型船主的典型。他们 笃信诉讼的力量，不愿意谈判， 选择强硬地诉诸法律并希望在 中国强制执行。要爬上中国历史 悠久的长城可不是一件容易的 事。 而前一种公司是略为敏感的 船主和运营商，他们愿意反复谈 判，也许已经意识到他们在中 国的长期生计取决于良好的关

系和口碑。中国人记性可是很好 的。从我们与中方的讨论来看， 一些外国船主在中国已经算得 上“臭名远扬”。我们认为，这样 的船主今后在中国做生意会越 来越难。 而较为敏 感 且 愿意接受反 复谈判和延迟付款的船主，可 能未来在中国发展处于更有利 的位置（无论未来看起来情况 会如何）。 但是，保护主义的阴影仍然 笼罩着当前的航运业。中国很 可能像以前一样转向封闭，完 全将外国航运公司排除在大部 分中国贸易活动之外。 船舶融资方面也可能出现一 种较为微妙的保护主义形式。 如上所述，欧洲的金融机构都 已经撤出航运业。中国人拥有 大量现金。希望获得资金建造 新船的船主将不得不与中国银 行打交道，他们可能会坚持在 中国建造新船，反对前往其他 国家。 总而 言 之 ，正 如 毛 主 席所 言，我们必须顺势而为。如果现 今的形势持续下去,那么掌握这 一精髓者将得以生存。

意见

■■■

作为一位银行家在中国的 痛苦与压力 Li Deng Bai 回忆他在中国遭遇的一些离谱经历 早上，我 从 床上 坐起来。窗 外涌入的光线告诉我，现在已 经是日上三竿，而且我并没有 在自己的房间里。随 后，我的 身体开始向大脑传递信息，感 觉全身机能都不太 正常—而 这都是昨天晚上留下的恶果。 我的太阳穴在悸动，喉咙枯燥 发干，嘴里满是白酒和香烟的 味道。如果我没记错，这是我 所经历过的最差茅台体验了， 这丝毫不会让人感到惊讶，因 为在茅台酒的故乡贵阳，这种 现象经常会发生。我正在拜访 一家私营重晶石矿业公司，公 司拥有人正考虑在新加坡上市 的事情，他大概四英尺多高， 讲话极具煽动性，一口令人费 解的四川普通话。他喜欢让我 这个大块头的美籍华人在他的 办公室里烂醉如泥，因此在展 示他 的主导 全 球 重 晶 石泥 行 业的计划时，他坚持让我们先 喝酒。我不得不在别人的帮助 下吃完晚餐，随后很快被带到 床上。我们并没有争取到这个 I P O 项目……很 显然，在 某 些 测试中我失败了。 通常，商务旅行都遵循着一 套相当枯燥的模式。一个人到 达相关公司的办公室，在正规 的 会 议 室内一 边喝 茶 一 边讨 论。如 果了解对手，您 通常可 以开门见山，开始当天要讨论 的问题— 但如果您不了解对 手，就不得不进行这种奇怪的 应酬行为。这通常意味着两个 团队 的人 要 面 对面 地 坐 成 两 排。在双方几番研究对方的名 片之后，就开始对一家公司进 行非常程 式化、泛泛而淡、最 无用的介绍，以及非常认真地 聆听对面的人强调他们如何坚 持自己的五年计 划—言下之 意就是：我们十分重 要，你应 该降低费用、购买更多、降低 售价、或者任何能得到他们青 睐的好处。

如果你正在喝白酒, 不要做任何五年计划

在中国，初次会面通常分为 两 类 。一 类 是 非 常 热 忱 地 招 呼，但没有谈到任何实质性的 东西— 这 很有趣，但很 少会 涉及到您真正感兴趣的东西。

混乱—尤其当他以“You no come, we no speak”（你不 来，我们就不说）作为结束语 时，更是令人费解。 我 记 起2 0 0 7年的一次会

我经历过的最差茅台体验 通 常，如 果 是 小 心 谨 慎 的 欢 迎，暗示着要达成任何结果都 要花费一定时日，如果谈判涉 及到一些实质性的东西，成功 的机会最大。 最 近，我 到 一 家 新 的 地 区 航 运 公 司 开 会，他 们 的 老 板 决 定 在 正 式 发言 中 秀 一下自 己 的 英 语 。事 实 上 ，他 根 本 说 不 了 英 语，结 果 导 致 一片

议，回想起来真是有点歇斯底 里。我当时正尝试做一些实物 货物经纪业务 —更多地是为 了帮助一位船东好友，他那时 正 全 力以 赴 寻 求与中国 进 行 交易。 我 发 现一 家 山东钢 铁 厂希 望 讨 论 业 务 问 题，并且 邀 请 我们 就 租 船 运 货合同 进 行 讨 论 。但 我 们 却 受 到 了 近 乎 粗

暴的接 待，说明了他们非常不 乐 意 见 到 我 们 。他 们 拒 绝 与 我 们 握 手，而 且 第 一 个 问 题 就 是：“你是 谁，你 为 什么 到 这 来？”会面从 那时起开始恶 化，尤 其 在 我 因 为 食 物 中 毒 病倒，并且因为恶心而中途离 席后更一发不可收拾。我回来 后得知，这家钢铁厂的高层对 我困惑不解的朋友说： “坦白 说，我 们 不 喜 欢 外 国 人 进 入 我们工厂，我建 议你不要 再来 了。”我 随 后发 现，原 来 他们 正在与当地船主商讨他们的惯 常合同，原来他们邀请我们并 不是因为希望与我们见面，而 是 因为 他 们 想 迫使 船主 降 低 点运费。 这就是一位周游各国的银行 家在中国贸易中的亲身经历。 Sinoship 2012年秋季刊

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