Travel

Diamonds aren’t forever

Sam Chambers muses on the future of business travel

It was 11 years ago that my first class treatment from the lovely folk at

Cathay Pacific came to a permanent end; my top tier Diamond membership of their loyalty programme had run out, I was relegated to gold. .I can honestly say though I hope I never attain that Diamond card again and in the years since gold status has made way for silver and latterly even that has slipped from my grasp - as it will do for many of you in the years ahead.

Don’t get me wrong, the perks of being a Diamond geezer were wonderful. The flashest airport lounge imaginable, upgrades galore, lounge access even when not flying Cathay, ludicrous baggage allowance … the list goes on. But what one has to do to become Diamond, phew, that’s an effort. In a 12-month period you need to crank out 120,000 miles with CX. To put that in perspective, Hong Kong to London is just over 6,000 miles. It’s alright if you are a high-flying exec such as you dear reader, as taking business class gives you double points. Your humble scribe here though has never coughed up the cash to sit up front in the plane so 120k worth of miles meant that in that particular 12-month period my feet barely touched the ground, home on my little island back then was a place

to shower, unpack and repack. Frankly, looking back on it, travelling that much was not good for the mind, let alone the environment.

As I look back on those frenetic days - and edit through the comments by many carried in our In Profile section this issue - it is clear that business travel, as we knew it, is unlikely to return to 2019 levels for many years to come, if at all.

The Global Business Travel Association estimates the market for business travel was worth about $345bn a year before Covid-19 struck. Best-case scenarios I have read by multiple analysts suggest the market will recover 70% in 12 months’ time, but realistically it will take many years for this hugely valuable slice of the world economy to get anywhere near its 2019 levels.

As and when travel does return en masse your trip to the airport will become a whole different, likely more stressful experience. Biodata will likely become the new fingerprint/iris scan for travellers.

“Safety is the new loyalty, and consumers will choose brands that prioritise their well being,” Jennie Blumenthal, the travel, transportation, and hospitality leader for consulting company PwC, wrote in a recent report.

The other thing to keep in mind as the world economy faces up to a recession on an epic scale is that flight prices are set to be wildly expensive.

Travel website Dollar Flight Club reported that flight prices could dip after the pandemic. It looked at past travel disruptors and found that airfare prices dropped after incidents such as the 2008 global recession or the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US in 2001.

The study also found, however, that these dips were followed by a sharp increase in flight prices when demand rebounded.

Dollar Flight Club also forecast airline mergers and a reduction of commercial flights in the future.

“Airlines will significantly cut back on available capacity by reducing the number of flights and routes to increase load factor. This will help increase revenue but will lead to ticket prices increasing,” the study found. Those in container shipping might recognise this particular market tactic.

The fact is you and I in shipping have been way too willing to be in attendance for the opening of an envelope for far too long. Those days are over, as might your prized Diamond status. Planet Earth thanks you. ●