Implementation

This report presents the Building Equity and Eco-Cultural proposals as alternatives but they are not discrete options. Many important elements about the future—such as the extent of climate change, development pressures, and shifting community priorities—are unknown. Adaptation pathways are a technique for resilient decision-making. Depending on emergent pressures and opportunities, different pathways may be more feasible or beneficial. The pathways are intended to serve three purposes:

1. Envisioning a plan that can adapt to multiple possible futures 2. Exploring combinations of the Building Equity and Eco-Cultural proposals 3. Communicating site options and pressures, including to the greater public

Many of the decision pathways split based on the level of site development. This is because important, but changing, factors often influence development. Will sea level rise inundate the development site? Will the market support the construction of these units? Does the community favor this use? The decision to develop—and in what way—encapsulates many of the top considerations for the future of the Poplar Point site.

The adaptation pathways framework is a method for supporting robust decision making under uncertain future conditions, like those created by climate change. A plan that uses the adaptive pathways approach specifies immediate actions to prepare for the near future as well as actions that can be taken to keep options open for future adaption. Actions eventually reach the end of their effective life, and new actions are needed to achieve the objectives.

Various factors could influence the type and extent of development at Poplar Point. The adaptation pathways presented in this section group these different pressures into two types of decision points:

The future of the National Park Service (NPS) facility on the site offers one way to consider these adaptation pathways. Should the building be torn down or repurposed? Figure 2 illustrates the interventions needed for either approach.

If the building is repurposed, stakeholders will have to make additional decisions in advance of sea level rise. The facility will be protected from the current 100-year storm by strategic flood management interventions, but will not be protected from projected sea level rise or more severe storm events.

At some point in the future, the facility will begin to be inundated by periodic storms that are more severe than what the flood protections can manage.

Figure 1: An example diagram of the decision point options, or adaptive pathways, for when sea level rise inundates the site with water for the berm proposed near the NPS facility.

DEMOLISH

Market and Demand (shown in yellow): This group includes elements that, when present, promote development including market pressure, housing needs and interest in commercial or recreational resources.

Climate Change (shown in blue): This group includes environmental pressures that, when present, limit development including sea level rise, increased flood risk, and increased heat and humidity. RETAIN

When a blue or yellow dot appears on a flow chart, this means pressures from one of two categories strongly, though likely not exclusively, influence the next step.

Figure 2: A decision tree for the NPS Facility. The decision tree starts with the consideration of development needs, indicated by the yellow point. The purple indicates an element that is included in both proposals, while the red is Building Equity and the blue is Eco-Cultural.

Should the facility be preserved for long-term recreation—a decision dependent on community need, resources and regionwide water management priorities? If the answer is yes, then the area behind the berm could be filled in to create a park. If the answer is no, then the area can be allowed to flood, or the building can be torn down and the area can be reconfigured to allow for other uses. If the building is initially torn down, there are several options available as to how to proceed with the area. The District may choose to maintain and fortify park space using a secondary berm to create a robust recreation area that is not subject to flooding. In contrast, the area could also be outfitted with floodable recreation infrastructure that is able to withstand periodic flooding while remaining functional. In the long run, this floodable recreation infrastructure may become permanently inundated at some point in the future, given future climate conditions.

Since some factors are unknown—like how quickly sea level rise and other changes in climate will affect the area—the adaptive pathways approach allows the alternative to remain flexible by envisioning series of futures that remain possible.

The land by the WMATA Metro Station has several distinct futures depending on development pressures and the impacts of climate change as shown by Figure 3. In the short term, the key decision is whether to develop the area into residential uses (as suggested in the Eco-Cultural Proposal) or develop the area into the Metro Plaza (as suggested in the Building Equity Proposal).

If the choice is to develop the area for residential uses, the next decision regards how to protect the area from future flood risks. Options include initially elevating the site, which would enable the construction of the Live, Learn, Grow District from the Building Equity proposal, or building at-grade on the site, which would enable a decision about whether to fortify the berm in the future.

If the choice is to develop the area into the Metro Central Plaza, which is the development focused option, the following decision will be driven by presence or absence of development pressures.

A high need or interest in housing and commercial development would result in the mixed-use Live, Learn, Grow District. The pedestrian bridge over the highway (as suggested in the Building Equity Proposal) or the more extensive pedestrian bridge that continues through the site (as suggested in the Eco-Cultural proposal) could be either a supplement or alternative to this district.

Like the previously described pathway, long-term climate change and environmental pressures would influence whether to eventually fortify the elevated recreation area or to let this area flood.

Figure 3: A decision tree for the WMATA parking deck.

Figures 4-5: A look at the existing WMATA parking garage.

Figure 6: The oval beside Poplar Point is currently under construction. (Image source: DDOT)

Initial development around the oval near the Frederick Douglass Memorial Bridge could be residential or mixed use, depending on the development pressures in the area.

Either pathway still allows for two options for the land located above the Bridge District: to develop the site or further remediate the wetlands.

For this area, elements from the Eco-Cultural District proposal (e.g., further remediate the wetlands) can be deferred and paired with elements from the Building Equity Proposal (e.g., develop the oval for mixed use).

Adaptation pathways are a method for considering and proactively addressing the many possible futures of Poplar Point. The site faces various, sometimes conflicting pressures, originating from both climate change and the need for housing or demand for development.

The Building Equity and Eco-Cultural proposals offer resilient and equitable ways to meet these challenges, but as pressures shift and change—as they inevitably will—these pathways can act as a way to communicate and adapt to the site’s needs.

1 Association of Research Libraries. (2021, July 20). Land Acknowledgment. https://www.arl.org/land-acknowledgment/

2 National Park Service. (n.d.). Native Peoples of Washington, DC (U.S. National Park Service). U.S. National Park Service. Retrieved September 27, 2021, from https://www.nps.gov/ articles/native-peoples-of-washington-dc.htm

3 D.C. History. (2020, August 21). The history and evolution of Anacostia’s Barry Farm. D.C. Policy Center. https://www. dcpolicycenter.org/publications/barry-farm-anacostia-history/

4 Smithsonian Anacostia Community Museum. (2021, September 11). “A Right to the City” Digital Exhibit. ArcGIS StoryMaps. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/ collections/34d99cccb2c5454da7b4f08e482c1987?item=3

5 Smithsonian Anacostia Community Museum. (2018). “A Right to the City” Digital Exhibit. ArcGIS StoryMaps. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/ collections/34d99cccb2c5454da7b4f08e482c1987?item=3

6 Smithsonian Anacostia History Museum, 2018.

7 District of Columbia Office of the Deputy Mayor for Planning & Economic Development and the National Park Service. (2010, November). Poplar Point Redevelopment Draft Environmental Impact Statement.

8 Ibid.

9 Ibid.

10 Smithsonian Anacostia History Museum, 2018.

11 District of Columbia Office of the Deputy Mayor for Planning & Economic Development and the National Park Service, 2010.

12 Ibid.

13 Smithsonian Anacostia History Museum, 2018.

14 Ibid.

15 Ibid.

16 District of Columbia Office of the Deputy Mayor for Planning & Economic Development and the National Park Service, 2010.

17 D.C. History, 2021.

18 Ibid.

19 National Park Service, n.d.

20 The District of Columbia Office of The Deputy Mayor for Planning & Economic Development, National Park Service. (November 2010) Poplar Point Redevelopment Draft Environmental Impact Statement.

21 The District of Columbia Office of Planning. (n.d.). Anacostia Historic District. Accessed December 11, 2021. https:// planning.dc.gov/publication/anacostia-historic-district.

22 District of Columbia. Historic Preservation Review Board. (2021, September). Anacostia Historic District Amendment. September 23, 2021. Accessed December 11, 2021. https:// app.box.com/s/dhn9muwq7e6fqor5v5v40hn1w7yanfma/ file/861320553312.

23 District of Columbia, Office of Planning. (November 2003). The Anacostia Waterfront Framework Plan. https://planning.dc.gov/ sites/default/files/dc/sites/op/publication/attachments/The%20 Anacostia%20Waterfront%20Framework%20Plan%202003.pdf

24 District of Columbia Office of Planning. (2018). Resurgence of the Anacostia Waterfront. https://planning.dc.gov/sites/ default/files/dc/sites/op/publication/attachments/Anacostia%20 Waterfront%2015%20Year%20Progress%20Report_web.pdf

25 District of Columbia Department of Energy & Environment. (2013). Climate Ready DC. https://doee.dc.gov/sites/ default/files/dc/sites/ddoe/service_content/attachments/CRDCReport-FINAL-Web.pdf

26 Resilient Washington DC and Rockefeller Foundation 100 Resilient Cities. (2019). Resilient DC: A Strategy to Thrive in the Face of Climate Change. https://app.box.com/s/ d40hk5ltvcn9fqas1viaje0xbnbsfwga

27 District Department of Transportation and Government of the District of Columbia Muriel Bowser, Mayor. (2021). movedc 2021 update. https://movedc-dcgis.hub.arcgis.com/

28 Strike Force. (November 2016). Housing Preservation Strike Force Final Report. https://www.dchfa.org/wp-content/ uploads/2018/04/strike-force-report-final-11-9.pdf 29 District of Columbia Department of Housing and Community Development. (2016). Five Year Consolidated Plan. https://dhcd.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/dhcd/ publication/attachments/FY2017-2021%20DHCD%20final%20 Consolidated%20Plan.pdf

30 District Department of Transportation. (2014). Anacostia Waterfront Initiative Transportation Masterplan. https://www. anacostiawaterfront.org/awitransportationmasterplan

31 U.S. Census Bureau. (2019). American Community Survey 5-year

32 Great Schools. Accessed September 2021. GreatSchools. org

33 GovLab. (2014). Reimagining Higher Education Report. Deloitte University Press. https://www2.deloitte.com/content/ dam/insights/us/articles/reimagining-higher-education/DUP_758_ ReimaginingHigherEducation.pdf

34 The Community Partnership for the Prevention of Homelessness. (2021). Homelessness in DC. https://communitypartnership.org/homelessness-in-dc/

35 We Don’t Parachute Here: Busboys And Poets Owner Says New Location Will Be Part Of Anacostia Community. (2019, March 8). DCist. https://dcist.com/story/19/03/08/we-dontparachute-here-busboys-and-poets-owner-says-new-locationwill-be-part-of-anacostia-community/

36 City of Washington, DC. Crime Incidents in 2020. Referenced in October 2021. Open Data DC. https://opendata.dc.gov/datasets/ crime-incidents-in-2020/explore?location=38.894096%2C76.960402%2C11.00

37 City of Washington, DC. Broadband Adoption Residential. Open Data DC. Retrieved September 2021. https:// opendata.dc.gov/datasets/broadband-adoption-residential/ explore?location=38.841809%2C-77.017062%2C13.59

38 Office of the Chief Technology Officer. (2015). Building the Bridge. https://connect.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/ connect/page_content/attachments/State%20of%20the%20 Digital%20Divide%20Report.pdf

39 DC Health Matters. “DC Health Matters :: Demographics :: Ward :: Ward 8.” Retrieved December 12, 2021. https://www. dchealthmatters.org/demographicdata?id=131495.

41 DC COVID-19 Cases by Ward. (n.d.). Open Data DC. Retrieved September 28, 2021, from https://opendata.dc.gov/ datasets/dc-covid-19-cases-by-ward/explore

42 DC COVID-19 Total Positive Cases by Neighborhood. (n.d.). Open Data DC. Retrieved September 28, 2021, from https:// opendata.dc.gov/datasets/dc-covid-19-cases-by-ward/explore

43 DC Health Matters. (n.d.). DC Health Matters :: Indicators :: Indicator List by Location. Copyright (c) 2021 by DC Health Matters. Retrieved September 28, 2021, from https://www.dchealthmatters. org/

44 A New Hospital at St. Elizabeths East. (n.d.). Dhcf. Retrieved September 28, 2021, from https://dhcf.dc.gov/page/newhospital-st-elizabeths-east

45 Reiff, J. (2020, May 15). Inadequate access east of the Anacostia River creates a cycle of poor health. Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/local-opinions/ inadequate-access-east-of-the-anacostia-river-creates-acycle-of-poor-health/2020/05/14/c4540258-93f3-11ea-82b4c8db161ff6e5_story.html

46 Barry Farm Redevelopment Associates. (2021, February 1). About the Redevelopment. Barry Farm Redevelopment. http:// barryfarmredevelopment.org/about_the_redevelopment-2/

47 Perry-Brown, Nena. “The Group That Plans to Give Ward 8 Residents a Seat at the Economic Development Table.” UrbanTurf. Retrieved December 12, 2021. https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/ blog/the-group-that-plans-to-give-ward-8-residents-a-seat-atthe-economic-develo/17940.

48 W8CED. “W8CED Planning Process.” Retrieved December 12, 2021. https://www.ward8cedplan.com/our-plan.

49 “ARCH – Washington DC.” Accessed December 12, 2021. http://www.archdevelopment.org/.

50 Zafar, Nina. (February 2020). “If You Don’t like D.C.’s Navy Yard, Just Wait. It’s Changing by the Hour.” Washington Post. Retrieved December 12, 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/ if-you-dont-like-dcs-navy-yard-just-wait-its-changing-by-thehour/2020/02/26/7595f6a4-55a4-11ea-929a-64efa7482a77_story. html.

51 Office of the Secretary of the District of Columbia. (2019). Priority for Leasing District Government Space in Neighborhoods Experiencing Underinvestment. District of Columbia Municipal Regulations and District of Columbia Register. https://dcregs. dc.gov/Common/NoticeDetail.aspx?NoticeId=N0086254

52 Government of the District of Columbia, Executive Office of the Mayor. (2021). Mayor Bowser Celebrates Major Milestones on Historic MLK Gateway Project in Anacostia. https://dc.gov/ release/mayor-bowser-celebrates-major-milestones-historic-mlkgateway-project-anacostia

53 U.S. Census Bureau. (2014 and 2019). American Community Survey 5-year

54 REIS (Real Estate Information Services). (2021, June). Anacostia/Northeast DC Report. Moody’s Analytics.

55 U.S. Census Bureau. (2019). American Community Survey 5-year

56 REIS, 2021.

57 U.S. Census Bureau. (2010 and 2019). American Community Survey 5-year.

58 Government of the District of Columbia, Executive Office of the Mayor. (2021). Mayor Bowser Announces $400 Million Investment in Housing Production Trust Fund. https:// mayor.dc.gov/release/mayor-bowser-announces-400-millioninvestment-housing-production-trust-fund

59 Schweitzer, Ally. (May 2021). The D.C. Council Just Advanced An Updated Comprehensive Plan. Here’s What’s In It. NPR. https://www.npr.org/local/305/2021/05/05/993836097/ the-d-c-council-just-advanced-an-updated-comprehensive-planhere-s-what-s-in-it

60 DC Office of Zoning. Northern Howard Road. District of Columbia Zoning Handbook. https://handbook.dcoz.dc.gov/ zones/special-purpose-zones/northern-howard-road/nhr/

61 Resilient Washington DC and Rockefeller Foundation 100 Resilient Cities, 2019.

62 National Capital Planning Commission. (January 2008). Report on Flooding and Stormwater in Washington, DC. https:// www.ncpc.gov/docs/Flooding_and_Stormwater_in_Washington_ DC_Jan2008.pdf

63 District of Columbia Department of Energy & Environment, 2013. 29). Title 20 - Chapter 31 - Flood Hazard Rules. Retrieved September 22, 2021. https://doee.dc.gov/publication/title-20-chapter-31-floodhazard-rules.

65 DC Flood Risk. (n.d.). DC Flood Risk DOEE. Retrieved September 27, 2021, from http://dcfloodrisk.org/main#

66 Kousky, Carolyn and Len Shabman. (January 2021). An Overview of the National Flood Insurance Program in Washington, DC. Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center. https:// riskcenter.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/DCNFIP-Brief.pdf

67 First Street Foundation. (2020). The First National Flood Risk Assessment Defining America’s Growing Risk. https://assets. firststreet.org/uploads/2020/06/first_street_foundation__first_ national_flood_risk_assessment.pdf

68 Kousky Carolyn and Len Shabman, 2021.

69 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Risk Rating 2.0: Equity in Action. Retrieved September 22, 2021. https:// www.fema.gov/flood-insurance/work-with-nfip/risk-rating

70 District of Columbia Department of Energy & Environment, 2013.

71 Ibid.

72 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). (2021). Learn About Heat Islands. https://www.epa.gov/heatislands/learnabout-heat-islands

73 U.S. Geological Society (USGS). (2021). Earth Explorer. https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/

74 U.S. Geological Society (USGS). (2021). NDVI, the Foundation for Remote Sensing Phenology. https://www.usgs.gov/ core-science-systems/eros/phenology/science/ndvi-foundationremote-sensing-phenology?qt-science_center_objects=0#qtscience_center_objects

75 Smith, Randy. (2017). D.C.’s Heat Islands. D.C. Policy Center. https://www.dcpolicycenter.org/publications/urban-heatislands/.

76 D.C. Department of Human Services. (2021). Cooling Centers – District of Columbia. https://opendata.dc.gov/datasets/ DCGIS::cooling-centers-district-of-columbia/about.

Anacostia Park (U.S. National Park Service). National Park Service. https://www.nps.gov/anac/learn/nature/index.htm

78 U.S. National Park Service. (2017, March 17). National Park Service to Combat Invasive Plants in DC Area National Parks - Anacostia Park (U.S. National Park Service).

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31 “Strandskogen Arninge Ullna by Topia.” Landezine. Accessed December 18, 2021. https://landezine.com/strandskogenarninge-ullna-by-topia/.

32 Bronx River Alliance. The Bronx River Foodway. https:// bronxriver.org/about/foodway.

33 Ward 8 Community Economic Development. W8 CED Town Hall Meeting (Virtual). October 20, 2021. Food Factory Farm and Food Hub Facebook Page. https://business. facebook.com/thefreshfoodfactory/?ref=py_c

35 Southeast Welding Center. http://www.seweldingcenter. org/home.html.

36 “Pavilion,” September 10, 2019. https://my.spokanecity. org/riverfrontspokane/attractions/pavilion/.

37 Giambrone, Andrew. “Airbnb: Stays East of the Anacostia River Grew 65 Percent since Mid-2017.” Curbed DC, August 8, 2018. https://dc.curbed.com/2018/8/8/17663854/airbnb-anacostia-rivershort-term-rentals-vacation.

38 Gensler. “MOMENT at San Pedro Squared | Projects.” Accessed December 21, 2021. https://www.gensler.com/projects/ moment-at-san-pedro-squared.