TILT – Therapeutic Innovations in Light of Technology
Research review
The 2014 D
T
he Delphi Poll for psychotherapy has been published each decade since the 1980’s. It has been largely predictive of the changes that were to evolve in the field of psychotherapy, and no less so now, with its most recent contribution. The Delphi Poll is a methodology that aims to find a consensus among a group of experts regarding a subject or field. In this case; the future of psychotherapy. It has a historical reputation as being a robust methodology. “The Delphi approach is particularly suited for emerging areas of inquiry and for building consensus among a group of experts” (Norcross, Pfund, & Prochaska, 2013) Expert panel group
The expert panel group that were involved in reaching consensus for this current Delphi poll included: 1. The 34 living participants of the original poll 2. 58 contributors of the History of Psychotherapy 3. 28 editors of leading mental health journals
10
T I L T M A G A Z I N E s p ring 2 0 1 4
While the researchers started with an invited group of 120 persons, the final data were collected and analysed for 89% of the final sample. By all standards, this can be considered a high return on the data collection. The panel includes influential thinkers and leaders in the fields of mental health and psychotherapy. Framing the results To frame the results the authors have identified four major themes that will be the principal drivers of change in psychotherapy for the future decade. These are: Technology, Economy, Evidence-Based Practice, and New Ideas. Interestingly, in previous iterations of the Delphi poll, the theme ‘Economy’ has dominated as the principle variable that drives change. However, in the current poll ‘Technology’ has come to the fore. “In all probability, psychotherapy faces a period of disruptive, technological innovation” (Kazdin & Blasé, 2011 cited in Norcross et al., 2013) The driving themes of Technology, Economy, Evidence-Based Practice, and New Ideas will be the variables that determine the future. Predicted changes include evolution in: 1. psychotherapy systems that will be used over time 2. the types of therapeutic interventions that should likely dominate the scene