Neil Shand

Chief Executive

March well and truly came in like a lion and that thread has continued to beyond the halfway point of the month, hopefully the end of the month will give some genuine Spring feeling to the air.

The cold weather has helped beef sales, when in fairness numbers are already tight, +/- a few pence of £5 kilo is normal at the moment and never has the UK been so geographically aligned with price. Depending on where you are in the UK, you may not agree with this, but closer alignment of the farm gate prices, which happened during Covid, which just happened to be just after Brexit, is good for the industry; the scale of variation historically was too great.

The budget statement suggests we will no longer go into recession in 2023, and there will be economic growth - but it will be small.

It would be brave or foolish to predict where the beef price is going to go in the remainder of 2023, but here goes.

It is easier to start by tracking back to March 2020, and I write this almost 3 years from when the first lockdown was announced and as a population we started to deal with a whole new world; including new words like furlough.

By the end of Easter 2020, farmgate beef prices had dropped to a UK average of £3.40p/kilo, this week it is £5p/kilo. If I or anyone had suggested that in 2020 we would have been escorted to the nearest mental institute.

We can debate the various factors that have driven the increase, which equates to about £600 on a 380 kilo carcase. What is harder to debate, or even understand is the fact the retailer shelf price is more or less the same as it was in March 2020. We are all naturally suspicious that the producer makes the least from beef production compared to the processor and retailer, and I won’t add fuel to the argument here, but the producer has received all the uplift in the last three years to date, and all of it has been required. Furthermore, as the price continues to rise as inputs fall, the opportunity to make hay while the sun shines cannot be missed.

like for like comparison but chicken we are told is always our major competitor. Reductions in feed costs will increase the competitiveness of chicken as the year rolls on, and by the nature of the business far quicker than reduced inputs on the beef price.

Global demand for beef is strong and that alone will likely lead our price to remain strong for the next 4-5months; while some predict some serious continued rises from now until June.

I think we are more likely to be around where we are now, with maybe small increases between now and summer. Thereafter till the end of the year, unless there are global insecurities, we are probably going to see a steady consistent trade with price being roughly where it is now, £5 or thereabouts will be the consistent price for the year.

Cattle numbers are tight and will remain tight for at least the next two years, cull cow numbers last year rose dramatically, the heifer kill also increased by over nearly 10%, so there is clearly a reduction in replacement levels, this is a major concern moving forward.

I may be proven wrong, after all, I thought Scotland were going to win the six nations this year.

As point of interest, this week one of the major retailers has best lean mince at £8.90 kilo, whilst chicken breasts are £16.50 kilo, I appreciate it’s not a

We are now very close to announcing the venue for next year’s Beef Expo, the date is still to be finalised but watch this space, we will be making an announcement very soon.