FEATURE

Just a word about the welcome, energetic response of the elites in India to the Covid-epidemic but the neglect of the much deadly, prolonged epidemic of tuberculosis. By the first week of January 2021, in India, about 1.5 lakh people have died of Covid-19 in last 10 months. This is of course most deplorable and the hue and cry about this epidemic is quite justified. What is problematic is the silence about more than 4 lakh TB deaths every year, especially when this number has not declined during last 60 years! This is despite the availability of very good diagnostic technology and very effective medicines. This silence is because TB is primary a disease of the poor!

- Dr. Anant Phadke

The attempt to develop a safe and effective vaccine against Covid-19 disease and permission given to it in India have been riddled with contradictions. The main contradiction is between the fantastic techno-scientific development regarding Covid-19 vaccine versus the limitations imposed by vaccine nationalism and the politics of profit-hungriness of giant pharma companies.

Usually, it takes from 5 to 15 years to develop a new vaccine because it is an extraordinarily challenging work for the scientists and technologists. However, the SARS-Cov-2 virus is similar to the SARS-CoV-1 and MERS viruses on which considerable work had already been done. This helped tremendously to expedite the development of SARS-Cov-2-vaccine. For example, the Moderna mRNA vaccine was developed in record time. It entered phase I human trial just 63 days after the availability of the genome sequence!; the latter was available in record time by January 11, 2020!! Thanks to the initiative by WHO and some international agencies, there was consensus among scientists to have parallel phases of clinical testing and reviewing of data to expedite the research process of phase-I, phase-II trials instead of the usual method of sequential process. Large investments by governments (for example, financial help from the US govt. for the Moderna mRNA vaccine) and innovative financial models helped pharmaceutical companies to work on developing the vaccine without having to face the financial risk entirely. Currently more than sixty SARS-Cov-2 vaccines are in human clinical trials, of which twenty have reached phase-III testing, eight have received limited or emergency use approval, and two have been approved for full use. However, patenting even for these Covid-vaccines is a sore point because the pharma companies have benefited hugely by so many non-profit inputs. There are welcome exceptions to patenting of Covid-vaccines - The Oxford University is not charging any patent fee to Astra-Zeneca, the British pharma company which is manufacturing its vaccine and who also has declared that it will not make any profit on this vaccine till the pandemic id over.

The ‘Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator’ (ACT Accelerator) is the global collaboration to accelerate the development, production, and equitable access to COVID-19 tests, treatments, and vaccines. ‘COVAX vaccines pillar’, another international coalition, is speeding up the search for an effective vaccine for all countries. It is planning to distribute free of charge, 2 billion doses by the end of 2021 to developing countries including India. However, the interests of the profit-centric pharma corporations and the nationalistic postures (bordering chauvinism) by different right-wing governments have vitiated such global humanist responses to this unprecedented health crisis. Here I would limit myself to the experience in India to illustrate this broader point of the harm done by profit-centric pharma companies and by nationalistic postures.

There is a great deal of difference in the trajectory of the Covid-19 epidemic in developing countries like India and that in the West. The number of Covid-19 cases per million population in

developing countries is comparatively far less (Sri Lanka – 2600, Bangladesh- 3200, India – 7700) as compared to European countries and the US (Germany – 25000, UK- 52000, France 46000, US- 76000). The reasons are unclear. But it seems that firstly there is much lower proportion of urban population and much lower social interactions in developing countries. Secondly, there is much higher incidence of all kinds of infections compared to these developed countries. This seems to have led to much higher prevalence of “innate immunity” in people resulting in the much lower prevalence of Covid-19 disease.

Deaths per million in developing countries including in India, are about one tenth compared to that in Europe and US. The votaries of the ruling establishment are posing this as the achievement of the Indian govt. But the fact is - this lower mortality is there in many south Asian developing countries. The lower mortality in India is despite the pathetic health care system and is due to two main reasons – Firstly the prevalence of Covid-infections is much lower as pointed out above. Secondly compared to the developed countries, much less proportion of Indians (8%) is above sixty years of age, the agegroup in which there is highest Covid-mortality.

There have been a little more than ten million recorded Covid infections in India by January end 2021. However, the total number of people in India infected with SARS-Cov-2 virus is much, much larger. This is because majority of Covid infections lead to minor symptoms and in India most people with minor symptoms are not interested in reporting these symptoms to the health authorities and to get tested; some of them are also afraid of undergoing the PCR test because of the stigma around people who are Covid-positive. The govt health workers approaching all the contacts of Covid-positive cases to test them for Covid-infection is relatively less compared to the developed countries and hence many contacts of Covid-positive cases remain undetected. Lastly, about 20% of people who get Covid infection have absolutely no symptoms at all and hence most of them are not detected and counted as Covid infections. Experts have therefore pointed out that the number of actual Covid infections is about 30 times that of the recorded cases, i.e. about 300 million. This is corroborated by the results of the second national sero-surveillance in midAugust and of the other local sero-surveys, which showed that 30% to 60% plus people have been infected with SARS-Cov-2 virus and have therefore developed immunity to Covid-19 disease. Over all one can see that at least 30 crore Indians have already been infected with SARS-Cov-2 and have developed immunity to Covid-19 disease.

Given the above, in India in recent months, there has been a steady march of this epidemic towards what is called as herd immunity. For an epidemic to recede, it is not necessary that hundred percent of the population be infected and thereby get immunity against the infection. If majority of the people get infection and hence immunity, the remaining get protection from infection. This is called ‘herd’ immunity, i.e. immunity from getting infection even without developing antibodies etc but on account of merely being part of the ‘herd’. For herd immunity to develop, the proportion of people who need to get infected is a variable. SARS-Cov-2 virus is far more infectious than the Swine Flu virus but less infectious than the measles virus. The number of people to whom the one infected person transmits infection, is called ‘R-not’ factor. In case of SARS-Cov-2 virus the ‘R-not’ is 2, meaning one SARS-Cov-2 infected person will infect on an average, two persons. This rate of transmission also depends upon how frequently people meet each other and how; how frequently and for how long are ‘close contacts taking place. Taking such factors into account, India’s leading senior epidemiologist Dr Jayprakash Muliyil has argued that in India if 40% of the rural population and 60% of the urban population gets immunity either through natural infection of SARS-Cov-2 virus, or through vaccination, the remaining will get heard immunity. Thus, we can say that when approximately 70 crore Indians get immunity, the rest will be protected through herd immunity. The epidemic will fade away but Covid-19 disease will continue in endemic form as has happened with the swine flu.

We can see in India the progress towards herd immunity. In India the epidemic peaked in the

first week of September with almost one lakh new cases per day. However, subsequently this number declined and in the fourth week of the New Year, we have only 10,000 new cases per day. We had feared that India will have a second peak after Diwali (because of great deal of social interactions during Diwali) but fortunately this fear has been belied. There has been some sort of second wave in some places and even a third wave in Delhi. But on the whole, now there has been a decline in most parts. This is in stark contrast to the experience in Europe and the US where the second wave was much worse than the first one and many European countries had to impose a lockdown around December-end. In India if the current trend continues, the Covid-19 epidemic would gradually fade away by the end of 2021; may be before the coming winter or after it.

COVID-19 vaccine is the first vaccine in the world which will help to end an ongoing pandemic. All other vaccines have been helpful in prevention of epidemics. In India too since it is going to be at least some months before the epidemic fades away, there is still an important role for a vaccine. However, the talk about the vaccine as a savoir in this epidemic is nonsense. From the 16th January the government has launched the national Covid vaccination programme with a big hype about it. The claims and expectations about vaccine’s role in overcoming this epidemic are unrealistic and more of propagandist. They have a political role in that the government would claim the credit for overcoming the epidemic due to its vaccination drive when in fact most of the work of controlling the epidemic has already happened.

Any epidemic of viral infection runs through its target vulnerable population (children in case of most infections) and fades away after achieving herd immunity. Epidemics like measles, mumps used to occur before the advent of their vaccines, and all of them used to fade away without any vaccination. The Swine Flu epidemic also faded away without any vaccine at hand. Covid-19 epidemic is far more damaging and has killed incomparable more people in a year compared to any other viral epidemic except the infamous flu pandemic in 1918. Secondly thanks to the miraculous scientific technical developments, for the first time in human history we have a vaccine which is being given in the first epidemic of a new disease in order to overcome it. All other vaccines have only prevented epidemics and have protected individuals or groups of individuals from certain viral infections like flu. Despite this welcome development, we also need to understand that at least in countries like India, the Covid-19 epidemic is now already on the decline and hence the vaccine will have a limited yet welcome, important role.

Vaccination programme launched by the Indian govt from 16th January will first cover all kinds of health workers and frontline workers totaling about 3 crores. It is planned that after this, all the people above the age of 50 years totaling 27 crores will be vaccinated. There is also a need to vaccinate all people under 50 years of age, who have co-morbidities like diabetes, hypertension, obesity, chronic lung disease, HIV infection, people with suppressed immunity etc. etc. All these together total about 40-50 crore Indians to be vaccinated on a priority. Currently the government has set up only 3000 Covid vaccine centres giving 100 shots a day, a total of 3 lakh vaccines a day. At this rate it will take hundred days to cover the 3 crore people, and 1000 days to cover the 30 crore priority people! (Additional problem - because of the wide-spread vaccinehesitancy currently only about two instead of three lakh people are being vaccinated daily.)

It is pretty clear that the existing government preparation, speed is most grossly inadequate to timely vaccinate these 30 crore top priority people. So there is a great need to rapidly, massively expand, at least temporarily, the trained human power to do this vaccination and also to involve where necessary, private sector doctors who are a million plus. But there is not even any talk about these two things. Just a lot of propaganda hype about the vaccination drive! When false, boastful claims are being made about “world’s largest vaccination drive against Covid19”, (US is planning to give 100 million doses in 100 days) what is glossed over is the fact that at the current pathetic rate of vaccination, it will be quite an ineffective programme to

It may also be pointed out that the government health workers have been giving around 15 crore shots of different vaccines to the under five population and to the pregnant women in India every year. Now to expect the same machinery to give additional 3 crore Covidvaccine shots in coming three months, is to expect them to work almost twice as fast as they normally do. The understaffed and underfunded Public Health System (thanks to the policy of privatisation since 1980s) is already fatigued because of the tremendous extra work it had to do during last 10 months. Hence this additional work of vaccinating 3 crore adults in 3 months is likely to be at the expense of routine work. The annual round of giving one dose of the Oral Polio Vaccine to all under-five children on 15th January was postponed!

Overall, it seems that as usual, the performance of the Modi government would be suboptimal. But through huge propaganda, it will claim the credit for overcoming the epidemic. That now we have the vaccine at hand will hardly help matters and it will be a case of missed opportunity because of poor planning and very poor resource deployment by the government for this vaccination.

The haste in giving permission to use of this new vaccine manufactured in India seems to have been shaped more by the needs of the concerned Pharma Companies and by the political interest of the ruling elite in India. Any new medicine or new vaccine, for it to get permission for it’s use in India must undergo first animal studies and then undergo Phase I, II, III clinical studies in human volunteers. Phase I, II studies are primarily for assessing the safety and immunogenicity and phase III involves larger clinical trial to primarily assess the efficacy of the vaccine as compared to a placebo. In India the Serum Institute of India has produced ‘Covishield’ with the help of manufacturing agreement with Astra-Zeneca which in turn has collaborated with Oxford University to develop this vaccine. The OxfordAstra-Zeneca vaccine, after completing Phase III trial conducted in England and Brazil, has obtained marketing approval from the regulatory authority in UK. However, as per the relevant rules of the Drugs and Cosmetic Act 1945, any medicine or vaccine permitted in any other country has to undergo what is called as bridge trial in India to assess whether this particular medicine or vaccine is effective in Indian population. However, Serum Institute applied for approval to Drugs Controller of India even in absence of Indian data of the phase III trial for Covishield. No detailed, plausible scientific rationale is made available. This permission is difficult to justify scientifically and in terms of relevant sections of ‘New Drugs and Clinical Trials rules 2019’.

The Subject Expert Committee, which advises the Drugs Controller of India about the introduction of a new vaccine or medicine in India, during its meeting on 30th December, told Serum Institute to submit “adequate data”. On 1st January Serum Institute submitted the data of the Oxford University trial in England and Brazil which showed that the vaccine has on an average 70% efficacy. This was considered in the context of phase I, II data in Indian trials, which had showed very good results. Based on this, on 2nd January, this Committee gave green signal to Covishield without giving any detailed scientific explanation for this permission in absence of phase III Indian data, as mentioned above! In case of Covaxin, permission was given in absebce of any phase-III data!! However, Covaxin is to be used under what it called, “clinical trial mode” as an “abundant precaution” and in view of the emergence of the new mutant strain in England. Without going into the technical details, it must be said that this conditional permission to Covaxin is also questionable in view of standard scientific norms and the relevant rules under the drugs and cosmetics act.

Two things form the background of this unwarranted haste in giving permission, without waiting for phase III data from Indian trials. Serum Institute and Bharat Biotech have already produced 50 million and 10 million vaccine doses respectively before applying for permission. Serum Institute is to sell this stock on a priority basis to government of India at a special concessional rate of 200 rupees per dose,

whereas Adar Poonawala, the owner of Serum Institute, has said that Serum will sell Covishield for Rs. 1000 per dose in the open market. Even if we take Rs. 200 per dose as the value of the vaccine, Rs. 1000 crore would have been lost by Serum Institute if the permission for this vaccine were to be denied. Secondly, as mentioned earlier, the Covid-19 epidemic is on the way out, as there has already been 90% reduction in new cases occurring per day from the peak in September. As days go by, there will be less enthusiasm by people to buy this vaccine at the rate of Rs. 1000 per dose, when it is available in the open market. Thus the profit needs of Serum Institute demand that the vaccine gets permission as early as possible. Similar is the case of Bharat Biotech. The regulatory decisionmaking should be completely insulated from these commercial considerations. To ensure this, transparency is most important. But information like who are the members of the Subject Expert Committee, what is the connection of these members with the concerned Pharma Companies if any, what is the detailed scientific rationale given by the committee members for giving this permission --- is not available in the public domain. In the U.S. similar expert advisory body meeting was open for outsiders online. In India there is the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunization (NTAGI) for advising the government about new vaccines. It’s website does not contain anything about permission for these two Covid-19 vaccines!

The permission for Covaxin is sought to be justified by some people by evoking nationalistic feelings on the basis that Covaxin has been developed by the National Institute of Virology. It’s a matter of great satisfaction and even pride that Indian scientists have been able to develop a new Covid vaccine within one year. But it is simply unacceptable that any vaccine be permitted for use without adequate evidence about its efficacy in Indian population which is to be available through Phase III trial data. Oxford University is not charging any patent fee and Serum Institute is an Indian company. Hence Covishield is fully compatible with the policy of Atma-Nirbhar-Bharat and hence there is no point in posing it as ‘foreign’ vaccine versus Covaxin. Critique of the hasty permission does not imply any criticism of the involved scientists who have done a great job. The owners/managers of these companies and the regulators have indulged in haste. Covaxin is based on the tried and tested ‘inactivated whole virus’ ‘vaccine platform’ which has been used for other vaccines and hence Covaxin is likely to be as safe as the earlier vaccines. We hope, when phase III Indian data of both vaccines are available, both will cross the bar of 50% efficacy which has been internationally agreed upon. But hope cannot be a substitute for evidence.

Serious Adverse Events Following Immunization (SAEFI) occur in case of most vaccines at the rate of 1 such event per lakh to per million doses. Except the immediate allergic reactions, some of which could be serious, like anaphylactic shock, (it’s average incidence is 1 per million shots) it’s extremely difficult to establish with certainty, it’s relation with the vaccine dose in a particular individual. But in developed countries, through phase-IV data to be obtained after marketing approval, SAEFI which were seen in phase IV clinical trials are recorded systematically and their relation with the vaccine is ascertained. Based on these data, in 19 developed countries, “no fault compensation” is given to anybody who gets any of these SAEFI. Expectedly, there is politics here also. Pharma companies want as less SAEFI to be regarded as related to the vaccines as possible and many experts come up with analyses, arguments about various issues related to SAEFIs which favour pharma company interests and vice a versa. Wading through some controversies, various governments have prepared details of the “no fault” compensation to be paid in their respective countries. In India since 1986, we have a system to record SAEFI’s. It’s controversial how well it’s implemented. Moreoverm there is no system of paying any compensation. In India, starting with Covid-19 there is the need to start this system of “no fault compensation”.

There have been reported 9 post-vaccination deaths in India by 28th January, among 23 lakh people who got the vaccine in first 12 days.

These deaths are all after Covishield. It is being claimed that they are unrelated to the vaccine. However, the system to record, analyse, and deal with Serious Adverse Events Following Immunization (SAEFI) in India does not have a reputation of being effective, sturdy. For example, it is accepted among experts that Oral Polio Vaccine can rarely result in paralytic polio, one child gets it per 25 million doses. Since 1998, India was pushed into adopting the strategy of Polio Eradication through OPV vaccination. Hence tens of billions of OPV doses have been given during last 22 years. This must have resulted in thousands of cases of polio. Since 1986 India has a system of monitoring SAEFI and a special mechanism to monitor SAEFI after OPV was set up after 1998. But yet, very few vaccine induced polio cases have been recorded as this is inconvenient for the ruling elite. There is a need to take a break from this tradition and there should be a reliable, robust, transparent system to record, treat and analyze Serious Adverse Events after Covid-vaccination. All aspects of the process of investigation of SAEFI should be available in the public domain so that people will feel assured that there is no unnecessary categorization of such cases as “not related to vaccine” and hence no unwarranted denial of compensation.

Let me take the example of Pune district in Maharashtra, where I live. With a population of 10 million it reported daily 4000 new Covid-19 cases and 80 deaths during the epidemic peak in early September. It declined to 500 new cases and 10 deaths daily by 20th January. If we assume that in the coming months this will be further reduced, on an average to one fifth of this current level, we will have daily 100 new cases and two deaths. At this rate, in coming say 200 days, there will be 400 deaths and 20,000 new cases.

Let us compare the above to the scenario after vaccination. Pune district has 55 Covid vaccinecentres, each meant to give 100 shots a day. Thus about 11 lakh people will get Covid-vaccine in 200 days. The efficacy of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in the phase-III trial conducted in England and Brazil is 62% for 2 doses of 1cc 4 weeks apart. Let us assume that Covishield, it’s Indian version has efficacy of 60% (Covaxin’s efficacy figures are not known.) Assuming this 60% efficacy of vaccination, only 8000 will get Covid-19; 12,000 will be protected; 140 will die and 260 lives would be saved. Compared to this, vaccination of 11 lakh people would mean majority will get minor symptoms like pain at injection site, headache/chills/fever/nausea/ weakness and they will be alright after half to one day with some paracetamol tablets and rest. One to ten people out of the 11 lakh vaccinerecipients will get significant adverse events including anaphylaxis and most will be alright after half to one day’s treatment and observation care in the health care centre. If at all, one or two persons may perhaps die due severe adverse reaction. Thus, benefits of vaccination will far outweigh the harm even when the epidemic is fading away. Hence it is improper especially for vulnerable people to keep away from this vaccine and worse to propagate against and it’s use. We need to distance away from politics for the sake of opposition or politics based on irrationality.

In conclusion, one can say that in India, as is elsewhere, narrow corporate interests and nationalist political interests/postures have overshadowed the humanist global response to this global epidemic. Most pharma companies would obtain patents/monopoly rights despite the global crisis due to this pandemic and despite huge Public Funds used for the development of these vaccines. The big fanfare, propaganda about the government’s Covid-vaccination programme is meant to create an impression that this vaccination will tame the epidemic when in fact this vaccination is too slow and in any case the epidemic has mostly declined before the vaccination started. Therefore, the politics of opacity of the regulatory process which has favoured the commercial interests of the concerned pharma companies and the politics of attaching nationalistic values to Covaxin also needs to be critiqued. There is also the need to distance away from politics based on irrational opposition to these vaccines.

- Dr Anant Phadke is a public health activist with CEHAT and can be reached at anant.phadke@gmail.com

- Justice A P shah

The budget session of the Indian Parliament began this year on 31 January 2020. Coincidentally, it was also one day after the World Health Organisation announced the Covid-19 pandemic to be a public health emergency of international concern. Originally scheduled to run till 2 April, after a brief 23 sittings, on 23 March 2020, Parliament decided to adjourn sine die, with no signs of activation since.

Contrast this with how other jurisdictions have been operating in this time of crisis: the United Kingdom, Canada, European Parliament, have all made procedural changes that enable holding hybrid or complete virtual sessions of parliament, with some members being physically present in the house, and others participating through video conference. These jurisdictions also have provision for remote voting to ensure that legislative business continues uninterrupted to the extent possible.

Many other countries are working similarly, such as France, Italy, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Australia and New Zealand. Spain - one of the countries worst affected - also ensured that legislative work went on. The People’s Majlis, which is the Maldives Parliament, is using Microsoft Teams video conferencing technology to hold virtual Parliament sessions. Mohamed Nasheed, the Speaker of Maldives Parliament, sums it up perfectly, when he says, “Parliaments worldwide cannot just stop representing their people during this crisis. The institutions of democracy must continue to function.”

These sentiments, sadly, do not seem to echo with counterparts in India, where Parliament has remained a ghost town since March 2020. This decision to shut Parliament down is also going against tradition in India, where Parliament remained in session even in times of crises like wars and terror attacks: in 1962 and 1971, the Indian Parliament remained in session, even as its armed forces were fighting neighbours. Despite the horrific terror attack on its building in 2001, the Indian Parliament met the very next day in New Delhi.

It is not as though parliamentarians cannot work virtually in India: The joint committee on salary and allowances already met on April 6, and recommended a 30 per cent reduction in the constituency and office allowances of MPs. If they can meet online to discuss these kinds of issues, surely they can also assemble virtually to perform their legislative duty as elected representatives?

At this stage, it is useful to understand what the role of the various arms of the state was intended to be. The Constituent Assembly, with their experience of colonial India, had a deep mistrust of executive autocracy, and instead, believed more in the sanctity of the legislature as the protector of people’s rights. In Parliamentary systems, the executive is accountable to the legislature, where the actions of the executive are subject to scrutiny on a daily as well as periodic basis. A host of tools are employed for this, such as questions, resolutions, no-confidence motions, and debates. This is in addition to the oversight of the laws and executive actions by various parliamentary committees. There’s a secondary round of accountability and assessment of all these actions through elections held periodically, every five years. It was precisely this electoral process that forced someone like Mrs. Indira Gandhi out of the office of the Prime Minister in 1977, and voted her back in, in 1980. With Parliament, the upper house, or the Rajya Sabha, has a clearly defined role too: to impose a check on hasty legislation that the Lok Sabha might otherwise be prone to, and to represent those interests that might not be considered by the Lok Sabha.

Thus, the Parliament was always intended to function as a body that keeps the executive in check. It exercises this form of accountability on behalf of the people it represents. Tools and instruments such as questions and debates are

used for this purpose. But what happens when Parliament itself stops working? Besides failing to provide leadership to the people in a time of crisis, like the pandemic, it compounds the problem of representation and accountability by granting the executive a free rein to do as it pleases. Executive accountability, in these conditions, is a thing of memory, for there is no one to raise any questions about its actions.

The Indian Constitution, on paper, checks many boxes of what a liberal, democratic, secular, and egalitarian Constitution should look like. With fundamental rights that are firewalled against interference, fiercely protected by the judiciary, a parliamentary system of government, separation of powers with a truly independent judiciary, and a federal division of responsibilities between the centre and states, the Constitution is a document that is the envy of many.

Like its counterparts in the liberal democratic world, India, too, aligns to a textbook framework for executive accountability: through the legislature, there is accountability to the people; through the judiciary, there is accountability to the Constitution and adherence to the rule of law, as well as to other institutions like the auditorgeneral, the election commission, a human rights watchdog, anti- corruption bodies, and so on; and there is additional accountability through entities like the press, academia, and civil society. These include non- governmental organizations, trade unions, religious organizations, and charities.

Unfortunately, what we see happening in India today is an insidious takedown of each of these institutions and mechanisms empowered to hold the executive accountable. Since 2014, every effort has been made to systematically destroy these institutions, not necessarily in the blatantly destructive way that the Indira Gandhi government did in the past, but certainly, in ways that have rendered the Indian democratic state practically comatose, and given the executive the upper hand in most matters.

Several examples of this can be given. The nonappointment or non-recognition of a leader of the opposition; and overriding the Rajya Sabha in important decisions by converting bills into “money bills”, which mean that the bills in question can be passed by the Lok Sabha’s approval alone. Also, the act of frequently putting bills to vote without any discussion. Through these, the executive has been allowed to get away with a lot of actions that would ordinarily have not gone unquestioned in another set of circumstances.

Even if the executive has ensured that Parliament is weakened to the point of inconsequence, one would have hoped that other entities would have stepped up to the plate and performed their duty of holding the executive accountable. Most notable amongst these, obviously, is the judiciary. We have always prided ourselves in, and boasted of, India’s independent judiciary. Despite serious aberrations in the past, such as during Emergency, the judiciary has always somehow managed to restore the people’s faith in the institution as one that preserves sanity in the chaotic life of the Indian democracy. But, today, the judiciary appears once again to be failing us.

There are many important issues that need to be deliberated upon today. With Parliament already so weakened, the Supreme Court would have been the next best space to discuss the Kashmir trifurcation, the constitutional validity of the Citizenship Amendment Act, suppression and criminalisation of protests against this law, misuse of draconian laws like sedition and the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act, electoral bonds, etc. Sadly, most of these are ignored or brushed aside or mysteriously kept pending for an indefinite period of time. In some cases, such as that of internet access in Kashmir, the Supreme Court has all but abdicated its role as arbiter, and handed over the matter to an executive-run committee to determine. How such a committee can take an unbiased view on a review of the actions of the executive itself makes no sense at all. Indeed, these are all matters that are not being discussed in any forum of constitutional relevance.

The other authorities and institutions that could have played an important role in these times

are also silent. We have heard nothing of the Lokpal since forever. The National Human Rights Commission is dormant and appears to exist only on paper. Investigation agencies seem to be misused at the slightest opportunity. The Reserve Bank of India and the Election Commission of India appear to have been suspiciously compromised. The Information Commission is almost non-functional. The list is long and needless to say, very disturbing.

In these conditions, we are left to fall back on the third category of those who are equipped to hold the executive accountable - in the form of academia, the press, and civil society. Each of these too, sadly, has been systematically destroyed or silenced. Universities are under attack daily, whether it is students being accused of rioting, or teachers being accused of criminal conspiracy. The idea of an unbiased mainstream fourth estate in India died its death a long time ago. Now, with policies like the Media policy in Kashmir, the concept of an independent free media is also dying. And civil society is being slowly but surely strangled, through various ways.

The source of these attacks is unquestionably the current executive, and the underlying strategy in the attack against these entities is to suffer no difference of opinion. Those of even limited influence found voicing opinions that are contradictory to the ruling party’s view are subject to the worst form of scrutiny and even punishment. The principle appears to be that all dissent must be silenced.

Today, with only the executive conducting its operations, and with every other institution systematically sidelined, we are moving towards a form of elected autocracy. And indeed, as many scholars have reminded us time and again, this is how democracies die.

It is not just in India, but in other parts of the world too. When the pandemic first came about, there were many who feared that this would be used to suppress dissent and consolidate power. This is exactly what is happening in India: the central executive has become all-powerful, and all accountability mechanisms are diluted.

In these conditions, there is no option left but for the people of the country to raise their voices. We must keep speaking out, and keep speaking up. Our aim must be to revive the liberal democratic state of India that we are so proud of. Failing this, we run the risk of allowing ourselves to be overrun by an overzealous and unchecked executive, which has unimaginable consequences. 74 years after independence, it is the least we can do for ourselves and our future generations.

(This is the text of the speech delivered by Justice A P Shah at Jan Sansad on August 16, 2020.)

- Apoorvanand, Harsh Mander, Kawalpreet, Umar Khalid, Yogendra Yadav

The brutal communal violence in parts of North-east Delhi in February led to the death of 53 people, and injured hundreds. Over the past half year, the supporters and participants of anti-CAA protests continue to be summoned by the police, harassed and subjected to long interrogations. Several young activists and students also continue to languish in prison under the draconian anti-terror law – UAPA – for almost 6 months now, without any official charges framed against them. Despite inconsistencies and lies that have been rebutted publicly, the Delhi Police has continued unrelentingly with the theory – not coincidentally propounded by the ruling dispensation – that the roots of the conspiracy of the riots lie in the protests against CAA.

However, on several occasions since December 2019, leaders and supporters of the BJP were seen inciting people to take the law into their own hands and making hate speeches. It would have been reasonable to expect any fair investigative agency to probe the impact such speeches had on the gradual breakdown of law and order in Delhi and subsequently its complete collapse in parts of North-East Delhi between 23-26 February. After all, the majority of targets of the Delhi violence – as pointed out even in the affidavit filed by the police in court - were Muslims, their livelihoods, properties and places of worship. But instead, the ‘investigation’ of the conspiracy behind the riots has chosen to target exactly those whom these hate speeches were made against – the participants and supporters of the protests against CAA/NRC/NPR.

On more than one occasion, the police has tried to build a ‘chronology’ of events as part of this conspiracy. In this version, the conspiracy of these riots began with the anti-CAA protests in Jamia Millia Islamia and Shaheen Bagh in mid-December. The chronology then goes on to detail other major anti-CAA protests in Delhi as all part of this conspiracy and the prominent voices as conspirators. This ‘chronology’, however, is conspicuously silent on the actions and statements of leaders of the BJP and actual incidents of violence since December.

We want to ask a few pointed questions to the Delhi Police, about which it has maintained an evasive silence:

1. On 25th February, a statement was released by the Press Information Bureau, after Home

Minister Amit Shah chaired a meeting attended by Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal and

Delhi Lieutenant Governor Anil Baijal. The statement said. “Shri Shah noted that the professional assessment is that the violence in the capital has been spontaneous.”

However, just a few days later, the Home

Minister contradicted his previous statement and stated in the Lok Sabha that the riots were a pre-planned conspiracy? This was even before any investigation had begun into the riots. Is the entire investigation just a façade to arrive at pre-meditated conclusions already announced before the investigation had even commenced? 2. Why is the chronology by the police silent on the two incidents of shootings on protestors that happened in Jamia Millia Islamia and

Shaheen Bagh on 29th January and 1st

February? Why is the chronology silent on the statements made by Anurag Thakur exhorting his supporters to shoot whom he considers as traitors on 27th January – just a few days before the two shooting incidents? 3. Between December and February, BJP leader Kapil Mishra made several inciting statements asking people to shoot the

‘traitors’ in December 2019, calling the upcoming Delhi elections a battle between

India and Pakistan in the first week of

February 2020, and also threatening in front of the DCP that his supporters will take the law into their own hands if the police does not clear the protestors. Does the Delhi police not consider these utterances as clearly an attempt to provoke violence and

promote disaffection and divide between communities? 4. During the violence, multiple videos emerged of persons associated with the ruling dispensation openly inciting and participating in the violence and carnage. In one such video, which was streamed live on

Facebook from Maujpur, a woman named

Ragini Tiwari is seen openly asking people to kill or die. Why does her name not find any mention in the chronology of the ‘conspiracy’ put out by the Delhi Police? Reports have also surfaced accusing BJP leaders like Satya

Pal Singh, Jagdish Pradhan, Nand Kishore

Gujjar and Mohan Singh Bisht. Why has the police not taken cognizance of all this so far? 5. A video showed officials of the Delhi Police assaulting four brutally injured men, and forcing them to chant the national anthem.

One of them, 23 year old Faizan, subsequently succumbed to the injuries he sustained in this assault. Has the Delhi Police initiated any actions against its personnel who were involved in this assault, that led to the death of one person? 6. Has the police even taken cognisance of the brutal custodial torture meted out to one of the arrested persons Khalid Saifi? 7. Has the police ordered any probe to several accounts where police allegedly was complicit in the violence, directing mobs pelting stones or looking the other way when mobs were indulging in violence in front of them. There have been multiple occasions showing Police breaking CCTV cameras too.

Are these charges being fairly probed? 8. Many of those already arrested were initially in different FIRs. It was only after they secured bail in the cases for which they were initially arrested, that the police implicated them in the conspiracy case under UAPA.

Is this a ploy to keep protestors in jail for long periods, without the need to provide evidence or frame charges? Why is a draconian anti-terror law like UAPA being used to probe this case? 9. It has also come to our notice that the police has been coercing people it has summoned for questioning to give false statements.

Is this a desperate attempt by the police to buttress its conspiracy theory in the absence

of any real credible evidence? 10. Confessions made in police custody have no value as evidence in deciding the guilt of anyone. But there has been more than one instance of ‘confessions’ of those arrested making their way to the press. This has been done despite a High Court ruling regarding one of the accused against such leakages of the details of the investigation to the press.

Why is the police trying to prejudice public opinion against those arrested, even before it has officially framed any charges? 11. In its latest line of questioning, the Delhi

Police has been grilling people on their about conversations in some Whatsapp groups with hundreds of members. Isn’t it ridiculous to believe that riots of this scale were conspired for several weeks in

Whatsapp groups with hundreds of people and the police never got to know about them? Or is the police pursuing this line of argument in order to safeguard real culprits?

The impunity granted to the supporters of the ruling dispensation in the clear incitement to violence seems to be a repeat of the impunity that the Delhi Police has provided over decades to the political leaders who were involved in inciting and participating in the 1984 anti-Sikh genocide. However, this time, the Delhi Police seems to have gone one step ahead, and while providing impunity to the netas, it has started targeting the students and activists who have been critical of the regime.

The entire country witnessed massive protests against the discriminatory CAA-NRC-NPR. The protests were peaceful, democratic and continuously spoke about the supremacy of the constitution and unity in diversity of the nation. The protests were mostly led by women and saw spirited participation by all sections of the society. This current witch-hunting of anti-CAA protesters is not only an attack on a few individuals. Such a sinister profiling of the democratic mass movement basically criminalizes our basic right to protest against the policies of the ruling dispensation of the day. It erodes public faith in rule of law and chokes democratic dissent.

We reiterate our opposition to CAA-NRC-NPR and shall continue our peaceful and democratic protest against such anti-people laws. We demand a court monitored investigation or an inquiry into this investigation under the Commission of Inquiry Act, 1952, by sitting/ retired judge(s) of the higher judiciary.

(Statement released by activists of Anti-CAA-NRC-NPR movement in a press conference held on Zoom on 4th September 2020. As of today several activists including Umar Khalid, Devangana Kalita, Natasha Narwal, Meeran Haider, Asif Iqbal Tanha, Sharjeel Imam and several others remain in jail and have been denied bail.)

My experience and interaction with various quarters suggests that the victims of arson, loot, physical injuries etc. would stand better served with fast justice and even faster disbursement of monetary relief to the victims. Similarly, Police has not registered many complaints of Muslim victims, including the most glaring example of the Mohan Nursing Home Shooting and hence no investigation has taken place on it and other such grave issues and incidents. In most cases, chargesheets have been filed by Police first against Muslim accused and the entire narrative has been changed to one of violence on both sides rather than a pogrom that was in fact carried out. This is a serious issue of changing public perception by attributing the riots to CAA protestors in general and Muslims in particular. This reflects injustice and partisan bias in the system which is neither good for a democratic system nor for our nation as whole. Much before these chargesheets were filed by Delhi Police, while being in the riot-affected area in Mustafabad, I spoke with an elderly Muslim gentleman about the prevailing situation after the riots. He narrated two couplets of two different poets to summarise the whole scenario. These two couplets are reproduced [with their English translations] as follows:

Usee ka shahr, wahee muddaee,wahee munsif Hamein yaqeen tha, hamaara qusoor niklega (It’s his city, he himself is the petitioner and himself the judge; I was sure, I’d be held guilty).— Ameer Qazalbash

Shahar kare talab agar, tumse ilaaj-e-teergi Sahib-e-ikhtiyaar ho, aag laga diyakaro! (If people ask you for a cure of darkness, you are in power, set the city on fire).— Peerzada Qasim

… Non-registration of FIRs or delayed action on complaints naming the accused of riots, loot, arson and murder has led to no investigation in many crucial cases. Cases like the shooting from Mohan Nursing Home, instigating and inflammatory statements of Shri Kapil Mishra, have not been registered despite High Court’s observation.

Partisanship and bias on the part of the Police and Government have led to the abject failure of duty and of the law and order machinery in the Capital of India. Investigations have purposefully been misdirected to change the narrative of the cause of the violence that erupted in the North-East district of Delhi. Instances of incitement for violence by politicians of national standing have been completely bypassed and persons like Dr M.A. Anwar of Al-Hind Hospital of Mustafabad have been castigated in the chargesheet. This reflects the partisan bias and shoddy methodology adopted in the investigation process…

M R Shamshad, Advocate-on-Record, Supreme Court of India Chairperson, DMC Fact-finding Committee on the North-East Delhi Riots Feb. 2020 Full report is available at https://archive.org/details/dmc-delhi-riot-fact-report-2020

- Soumya Dutta

Ten years ago, on the 11th of March 2011, ‘all hell broke loose’ in the Pacific coast of Japan. A huge Tsunami, triggered by the gigantic ‘Tohuku earthquake’, hit the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plants on the coast, overwhelming the ‘tidal defence walls’. What followed is now well known to the whole world, as the live television coverage of the apocalyptic events streamed into all homes around the globe. Three of the four reactors went completely out of control into meltdown, millions were evacuated, huge areas became uninhabitable for decades or even centuries, massive radioactive water was (and is still being) dumped into the Pacific Ocean causing untold damage to marine life… And that disaster is still unfolding 10 years down the line, with no certainty about when the technologically and financially sound Japanese government and Corporate world (TEPCO owns and ran the Fukushima Daiichi NPP) will be able to fully contain and decommission these reactors.

One was reminded of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster in then existing Soviet Union, as the only comparably horrendous nuclear disaster, both being classified at the highest rank of Level-7 in the deceptively named “International Nuclear and Radiological Events Scale INES”. These are not any other event; these are apocalyptic events. Many such nuclear disasters have happened every decade, in many countries operating nuclear power projects, in various smaller scales. And it’s better not to forget the cataclysmic nuclear bombings of Hiroshima (over 12,00,000 dead from one small fission bomb) and Nagasaki. That’s not the end of nuclear bombs destructive story though, as the ‘nuclear powers’ have tested over 2,000 of these nuclear weapons of mass destruction in several designated areas of the world. The tales of the major US testing site, the Marshal Islands and how its unsuspecting citizens were used as nuclear-exposure guinea pigs, is another horror story. Similar but lesserknown stories exist in the Soviet nuclear test sites of Semipalatinsk in Kazakhstan, Novaya Zemlya and others, the French nuclear test sites of Reggane & Akker in Algeria and the Mururoa Atoll in the Pacific, the British test sites in the Australian territories of Monte Bello, Maralinga, Emu Field., and the Chinese test site of Lop Nur in the Uygur Autonomous region.

There is a millennia long fascination with the atom and its secrets, that began about 2500 years ago, with the Greek philosopher Liucippus being credited with the origin of the ‘atomic philosophy’, and his student Democritus naming the smallest unit of matter as ‘atom’ (meaning indivisible) around 430 BCE (roughly around that same times, Indian philosopher Kanada was also proposing a somewhat similar idea). The modern era of experiments with the innards of the atom – particularly the atomic nucleus, began in the early years of the 20th century, with Ernest Rutherford in Britain experimenting with changing the nucleus (and thus, very properties of the original matter) by bombarding them with energetic ions. After about 40 years of scientific investigations by many scientists, into the secrets of large energy release by radioactive atoms and their nucleus, the four European scientists Otto Hahn, Fritz Strassmann, Lise Meitner and Otto Frisch collectively discovered and understood the process of induced Nuclear Fission in 1938. This was facilitated by Enrico Fermi’s 1934 discovery that neutrons can split the nucleus of atoms. They discovered how to split open the very nucleus of the heaviest radioactive atoms that releases a huge amount of energy and calculated the amount of energy released. In 1942, a team led by the American scientist Enrico Fermi at the University of Chicago, first demonstrated the process of slow-neutron induced Nuclear Chain Reaction with Uranium235 (one of the 3 isotopes of Uranium), the basis of all nuclear-fission power reactors.

The first human-made self-sustaining nuclear fission chain reaction based nuclear reactor started on December 2, 1942, and thus began the so-called “Nuclear Age”. Simultaneously, the massive US government program to get highly enriched Uranium 235 (the fissile or fissionable isotope of Uranium) from natural Uranium

(which has only 0.7% of U-235) and the task of building an ‘atomic bomb’ (starting from the beginning and continuing today, atomic bomb / power and nuclear bomb / power has been – though wrongly – used synonymously) continued at full speed, resulting in Hiroshima and Nagasaki at first, and then a global nuclear arms race that continues today.

One has to recollect the historical perspective of the 1930s. All around the world, political tensions were building up dangerously and the second World War was looming in the near horizon, with a host of dictatorial and fascist powers trying to change the then established (not just by any means) global order, established after the defeat of Germany in the first world war. So obviously, this new and massively energetic physical process of Nuclear Fission attracted much more than scientific interest. Within a year of first nuclear fission, the World War broke out, and it was no surprise that the first efforts of this massive new energy release mechanism were targeted towards developing weapons of unimaginable mass destruction. That discovery turned a curse, and is still hanging over our heads like a proverbial Damocles’ sword. Today, the world stockpile (from estimates of stocks of the nine nuclear armed countries) of destructive nuclear bombs are about 14,000 with about 10,000 actively deployed by their militaries. More than enough to destroy all life on Earth several times over. A ‘miniature demonstration’ of that destructive power has been Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Even during the War, many scientists, political leaders and others realised the ‘enormous potential’ of this new energy source, as a large supply of energy-to-energy hungry industries and societies. Once the War was over, this new fascination with “atomic energy” started peaking and the experiments to harness the ‘power of the nuclear fission’ started in victorious allied power countries, particularly in the USSR, US and UK. The World’s first commercial nuclear power reactor generating electricity was opened in the erstwhile Soviet Union, in June 1954 in Obninsk, then in the UK at Calder Hall in 1956, followed by the US opening its first commercial power reactor at Shipping Port in May 1958. Even before the first nuclear plant became operational, a dream was sold to the people, that “Nuclear power will be too cheap to meter” (Lewis Strauss, then chairman of US Atomic Energy Commission, in 1954). This, ironically, now is a recurring taunt to the hugely expensive, controversial and risky nuclear power industry.

The three decades of 1960s to 1980s were called the “golden age” of nuclear power, and one needs to put that in perspective too, to understand ‘why’. The world was coming out from the ravages of the second world war. Infrastructure in the “developed world” were devastated (except in the US), needing massive rebuilding efforts all around, with the Marshall Plan being implemented in Europe. The US became the dominant world power with the Soviets leading the opposition camp. And both these sides were thoroughly convinced of the ‘huge potential and benefits’ of ‘abundant and cheap’ nuclear power, and were equally convinced that nuclear weapons will determine the power structure of the world from now on. In the 1950s, 60s and 70s, Europe (also north America to a lesser extent) faced massive air pollution problems due mainly to the huge amounts of coal being burned for electricity and industrial production, also due to the rapidly increasing petroleum burning for transport and heating. The infamous “London Smog” of December 1952 killed over 12000 residents, and was a haunting recent memory then. The ‘first and second worlds’ faced huge air pollution and acid rains, with Solar and Wind power or any other ‘clean source of power’ nowhere in sight. So, it was no wonder that the ‘apparently clean’ nuclear power was seen as the solution to both the rising energy needs and the problems of air pollution.

In terms of energy availability too, the whole world faced two big oil shocks during the 1970s Arab-Israel wars, in 1973 and again in 1979. Oil or petroleum, which by then had become a large source of essential energy, became unaffordable, hitting economies all around the globe. Nuclear power was seen as a stable source, as countries in the developed world, like Canada, Australia, US etc had huge reserves of Uranium. Thus,

following the mid-1950s first nuclear power plants in Europe and north America, the 1960s and 70s saw an explosion of such NPPs being built all over their territories. Thus, global installed nuclear power capacity reached about 1,36,000 MW by 1980 (about 7% of global total electricity capacity), rapidly increased to 3,10,000 MW (11%) in 1985 and then to 4,58,000 MW (13%) by early 1990. Then Three Mile Island happened in the USA in 1979, and the Chernobyl disaster in erstwhile Soviet Union in 1986, and the nuclear power honeymoon started unravelling.

The problems and dangers of nuclear power were evident from the beginning, no less from its intricate association with nuclear bombs. But in the early decades, scientists were confident that these problems can be tackled in time, with new research and developments. Reactors had supposedly ‘fail-safe safety systems’, the radioactive releases were small to begin with, and the occasional accidents were either hidden or under reported by both the governments and the companies involved. Three Mile Island nuclear reactor accident in March 1979 started changing all that. There were several ‘nuclear accidents’ reported to and listed in the International Atomic Energy Agency database before this, but this was the first reported and recorded case of a feared Core melt-down. The core of Reactor-2 at TMI partially melted but ‘only a small amount of radioactive gases were released’, as reported to the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA. One thing is worth noting – all reporting to the IAEA INES are voluntary, meaning whatever and to what extent the accidents will be reported and their impacts recorded, depends on what the member country (where the accident occurred) choose to report – a very tricky arrangement indeed. And then came the mega accident of Chernobyl in 1986. It needs to be noted that studies of the IAEA INES shows that about 100 significant accidents happened in world’s NPPs from mid-1950s to 2010, before Fukushima happened. And these started right from the dawn of the “nuclear age”, in 1957, with the Mayak, Kysthym disaster in erstwhile Soviet Union, in the fuel reprocessing plant. India is also not spared, the Narora accident, the Rawatbhata accidents points to our vulnerabilities, and the disastrous project of Koodamkulam is a ticking (nuclear) time bomb.

With nuclear reactors, it’s not just the major problem of accidents (which can be catastrophic, like Chernobyl or Fukushima), but also the regular release of radioactive contaminants into the environment. Any operating reactor will – in the very process of Uranium fission – generate radioactive by products in the form of gases and solid particles. This happens throughout the nuclear fuel cycle, from Uranium mining and processing to reactor operation, venting and generation of spent fuel. Millions of tons of comparatively low level radioactive mine tailings and radioactive process liquids are left after the mining, as the occurrence of Uranium in ores is generally a low percentage. Though of low level radioactivity, these can and do have serious impacts on surrounding populations and animals & plants, as anyone can verify in India, by the examples of Jaduguda, Turamdih (both in Jharkhand), Tummalapalle, KK Kottala, Mabbuchintalpalle (in Andhra Pradesh) etc. The Uranium fission process generates radioactive gases like Iodine 131, Caesium 137 etc. that have ‘half-lives’ (by what time the radioactivity level drops to half) of hours and days to dozens of years. Considering that at least five half-lives (ten is the conservative opinion) are needed for these to become of an ‘acceptable’ level of radiation exposure, the surrounding populations of any NPP are regularly exposed to unacceptable levels. Breathing these highly radioactive gases and the fine radioactive particulates (generally, the shorter the half-life, stronger is the radiation level) causes the inside tissues of our bodies to get exposed to these dangerous radiations, which can cause a host of serious diseases and even genetic mutations.

On top of all that, the biggest radioactive contaminant is the spent fuel, where both highly radioactive and long-lived contaminants are concentrated. And some of these, like all the Plutomnium-239 generated in the world’s 440+ nuclear reactors, will remain dangerously radioactive for well over a hundred thousand years, with a half-life of about 24,000 years. After about six decades of research and spending many

billions of dollars, scientists have not yet found a safe and feasible solution to the mounting problem of radioactive spent fuel. Nor are they any closer to any perceived technological solution than they were 40 or 50 years ago. In the meantime, the world of energy has changed, and changed dramatically in some of its aspects.

Nuclear power has other serious limitations of geography, politics and economics. With its better-quality indigenous Uranium ores already exploited or in difficult to access areas, the cost of extracting, refining and fabricating fuel rods have gone up. As per some estimates, India’s indigenous fuel resources cannot run a single-use (breeder reactors are as yet far off) nuclear power program much bigger than 10,000—12,000 MW. This will necessitate importing uranium, as we are already doing in substantial scale. India is already dependent on Russia, Canada, France, Kazakhstan, Australia etc, for nuclear fuel for its operational power plants. Nothing concrete has been done to tackle – even in the medium term, the mounting stockpile of nuclear wastes, particularly the highly radioactive (for a very long time) spent fuel stocks. With additional safety features required as a result of flaws exposed by the massive nuclear accidents, the costs of building new nuclear reactors is going up, and will continue to go up for some time, making these economically uncompetitive by a large margin, while the costs of solar and wind energy keep falling. Meanwhile, the fears of an ‘Indian Fukushima’ will keep haunting us all.

The world today is very different than what we had in the 1960s and 1970s. We are now well aware of the enormous dangers of the nuclear fission route to power. We have faced two mega nuclear disasters, and have seen that in spite of their huge financial, technological and managerial capacities, neither Soviet Union nor Japan (nor US, to include them) have been able to control these nuclear catastrophes. And it’s now clear, that no conceivable near-future technology exists to do that kind of work. We have also arrived at a very different technoeconomic reality in terms of renewable power The technical capability of commercially available Solar photo-voltaic panels today gives us about 20% efficiency, compared to 8-10% a decade or so ago. And poised to grow quickly to over 25%. The cost of solar PV generated electricity has dropped over 16 times over the last 15 years. Today, Solar PV generated electricity in good solar areas cost about Rs.2.50 to 2.80 per Kwh /unit, compared to Rs. 3.50-4.00 from new coal power projects and anywhere between Rs. 5.00--7.00 from new nuclear power projects (if all subsidies are calculated). Wind power from good sites also cost around Rs. 3.00—3.50 per unit. Both solar PV and wind power has some adverse impacts on the local ecology, and for the centralized models – on local populace. But none of these are inherent to the technology or pose any technological challenges, though social reorientation is needed to include communities in the benefits, which is not possible with nuclear or coal power. And neither Solar or wind energy plants will explode, spreading radioactive contaminants or toxic chemicals over tens of thousands of sq. kms, forcing lakhs of people to be evacuated or thousands to be killed by cancer or other deadly diseases. How critically dependent is the world, and India in particular, on the available nuclear power today ? The total installed electricity generating capacity in the world, at the end of 2019, was about 83,00,000 MW. Out of this, installed nuclear power capacity was around 3,70,000 MW, or about 4.5%, while total installed capacity of Renewables was about 24,50,000MW (including about 11,40,000 MW of hydropower). While fossil fuel-based power capacity still making up over half the total, at around 42,13,000 MW.

We in India have a total installed electricity capacity (of all types) of around 3,75,000 MW, of which all the 22 operating nuclear reactors contribute a paltry 6,780 MW, or about 1.81%. About 2,000 MW of this nuclear power is the onnow-off-again Koodankulam power plant. In the year 2019 (pre-pandemic and lockdowns), these nuclear power plants produced about 43 billion units (each unit being a KWhr), compared to the total commercial generation of about 1390 billion units, thus contributing to about 3.1% of the

generation, with roughly 1.8% of the countrywide installed capacity. At the same time, over 100 existing grid-connected power units had been shut down for lack of demand of electricity, the peak demand at around 1,85,000 MW being roughly half of the total installed capacity. At the same time, all renewable energy sources taken together (excluding big hydropower) has produced about 10% of the total generation. And once you consider that nuclear-fission energy is being aggressively promoted in India from the early 1960s, with the first power plant –Tarapur-1, coming online in 1969, this dismal performance over such a long period of time becomes even more pathetic. In contrast, the first large commercial wind power projects in India began in late 1980s, with an installed capacity by end-2020, of about 39,000 MW. The first commercial solar power project (just 2 MW capacity) in India began operation in late 2000s in Punjab. In just a dozen years, India’s installed commercial solar power capacity has reached about 36,000 MW. Both commercial wind and solar power plants are generating power at less than Rs.3.00 per KWHr cost, often less than artificially depressed coal power prices.

• India now has more installed capacity and generation than is presently in demand, even considering lower Plant Load factors of renewable power, and likely to be surplus for the next 4-5 years’ peak demand as well; • Nuclear (fission) power generation contributes a small fraction (2-3%) of our current power consumption; • Nuclear power has limitations in terms of the availability of Uranium, and the dreamed

Breeder cycle of reactors, are still decades away. No one knows if they will be fully safe, cost effective etc; • Nuclear power has several serious associated radiological pollution threats – both short, long and very long terms, that do not seem to have ready answers, even after 65 years of nuclear power (50 years in India); • The threat of a nuclear reactor disaster cannot be eliminated, nor can it be managed once it happens, as shown by experiences of

‘advanced countries’; • Nuclear power currently is one of the most expensive to build, and if all subsidies are taken into account, much costlier than either

Solar PV or Wind power. This cost is likely to increase with needed additional safety features; • Society needs energy, Not new nuclear technologies. Better choices are available; • Coal has to be phased out in a planned manner, as early as possible, to avoid the worst impacts of – not only climate change, but also of critical air pollution and water shortage; • In today’s commercial energy market in

India, Solar PV is the cheapest and easiest option for any new power capacity, and costs about half the amount of per MW installed cost than new nuclear; Wind power is close to this lowest price also; • Both solar and Wind power has some environmental and social impacts, but these are policy and implementation issues, not technological challenges. By all studies,

Solar and wind power also has the least external cost now; • Solar and wind power do not have any catastrophic accident risks. The greatest risks are limited to some possible bird hits, mild local temperature variations, at its rare worst – a few people getting hit by a torn wind turbine blade. Almost all these small risk factors can be minimised; • Unlike nuclear (and Coal or big hydropower), solar, wind, micro-hydro, small biomass etc power systems are modular, and are very amenable to community (or even family) owned and controlled power systems, that can be integrated with the power grids.

These can revitalise stagnating rural incomes and economies; So, Let’s learn from Fukushima (and Chernobyl), adapt to the 21st Century world and abandon the tried and failed 20th century nuclear-fission power system, and transition to a cleaner, safer, cheaper renewable power world. The world will be much better off without the ever-present threats of other Fukushimas.

- Soumya Dutta is with the MAUSAM (Movement for Advancing Understanding on Sustainability And Mutuality) and SAPACC (South Asian Peoples’ Action on Climate Crisis) and can be reached at soumyadutta.delhi@gmail.com

- Prafulla Samantara

Today, the whole world is under panic due to the health crisis created by the coronavirus. Nobody, not even the group of scientists engaged deeply in research work to produce medicines for its treatment, knows the said crisis’s duration. It is speculated that the end may be in two years, when most of the world has received the vaccination. But is it a temporary crisis? We believe new viruses may appear as a result of destruction of deep forests along with its rich biodiversity, which is natural shelter of zoonotic viruses. However, given that the nation-states are totally driven by the capitalist global market forces for profits and have shown complete insensitivity to the need of a cool earth, seems we are headed to a permanent crisis. We partly experienced reduction of air pollution, cleaner rivers and water bodies due to COVID-19 lockdown, but as the economy restarts soon, we are headed to the business as usual driven by fossil fuels extraction and exploitation of natural resource through extensive mining and destruction of green forests. The deadly combination of a climate crisis with the health crisis will pose a deadly threat not only to human civilization but also to the whole earth and human existence. wants and accordingly to reign in unmindful mining and unending industrialization which is responsible for finishing non-renewable resources and excessive emission of carbon dioxide. This pandemic should be taken as an opportunity to begin with changes to the present economic system and developmental paradigms for achieving minimum needs for dignity of life to everyone without concentrating of either natural resources or capital in the hands of limited people or corporates.

Unfortunately, Indian government’s new economic package, in name the of economic revival is dangerously antithetical to any mitigation or prevention of climate change. It is adding fuel to the fire, destroying the livelihood system of the marginalised sections like tribals, Dalits, farmers and labouring class who need small-medium industries, food processing, renewable energy for which the protection and conservation of land, forest and water resources and its development are necessary. If taken in right earnest, these measures could open the gates for mass employment in every region of the country.

The lockdown is not desirable for cooling the earth but it does have a message for us. In this period the over polluted cities saw clear blue sky, return of migrated birds, the clean water in rivers, roaming around of deers, and other animals on the empty highways built on their habitatsm and emergence of flora and fauna in polluted and degraded spaces, even within such a short span of time. This has a learning that the reduction of green-house gases and reduced extractive industries and unmindful production for consumption is the only way to save the burning earth. And more specifically, high consumption is being driven by the global elite in North and South both and high resources exploitation by the developed nations.

Last year 11,000 scientists in a joint appeal to the heads of nations and the decision makers of every country had urged to reduce unnecessary India has continued its extractive policies and commitment to neo-liberalism even during the time of the pandemic and announced commercial auction of its coal reserves. The PM justified the diversion of 41 Coal blocks for commercial mining though private Indian and foreign Conglomerate of companies for making of ‘’Atma Nirbhar Bharat’’ / self-reliant India. This sounds completely hollow, given that handing over its previous natural resources for destructive development and profiteering is not going to make India self-reliant.

The present auction of 41 coal blocks will destroy lakhs of acres of forest and agricultural land in Odisha, Chhatisgard, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Maharastra. Hasdeo Arand, the longest forest area of 1,70,000 hectares has many ecological hotspots, elephant corridors and primary sources of water streams to the river Hasdeo, a tributary of River Mahanadi.

Similarly, in Angul and Jharsuguda districts of Odisha 33,000 acres of forest and agricultural land will be diverted and the mining activities will pollute and create water scarcity in river Brahmani which has been already vulnerable to industrial and mining activities. In jhadkhand there will be huge loss of livelihood system of tribal communities. In Maharashtra a tiger sanctuary will be affected along with the land of tribals. In Madhya Pradesh 11 coal blocks are to be auctioned even when the state is surplus in power generation.

We know that the decision to hand over such rich non-renewable resources to the corporates are violations of the existing principles, laws and restrictions and are subject to the legal scrutiny. In 2010, the ministry of Environment and Forest had notified 60 thousand hectares as ‘’no go zones’’ and ‘’inviolate area’’. It is a matter of deep concern that there are 11 such restricted zones among 41 coal blocks for destruction. Why this madness?

All these auctions of mines are fixed ignoring the Forest Protection Act 1986, Environmental Conservation Act 1980, PESA of 1996, FRA 2006 and Land Acquisition Act 2013. In this covid period, the MOEFCC cleared Dibang Valley Etalin hydropower project of 3097 megawatts dam in Arunanchala Pradesh, requiring submergence of 1178 hectares of dense forest, natural habitat of more than 300 species of birds and mammals along with endemic goat antelope. It has 2.8 lakh matured trees. The hydro project above 25 MW was not considered as green energy but the government changed the criteria of limitations, to show this as contributing to increase in green energy.

India is a signatory to Paris Climate Agreement 2015, by which we have to reduce fossil fuel emissions up to 30-35% till 2030 and have to strive for green energy like solar and wind. The Secretary General of the UNO Antonio Guterres has said that the governments shouldn’t open new coal mines in lockdown and they should go for solar and wind energy production as to maintain quietness of present atmosphere in this lockdown. The UNO environmental chief Mrs. Ingar Anderson also said to keep the pristine forest’s untouched to prevent viruses transfer to human habitats.

So far, the electricity generation is concerned, India has a total installed capacity of around 4 lakh MW to produce but our maximum national consumption in last year was below 3 lakh MW. 33% of our power plants were shutdown at one point or the other either due to low demand or due to water and resource shortages. For next 20 years, it would be prudent for the govt. to go for increasing green energy without stepping into new thermal projects, something vital for protection and conservation of non-renewable resources as the primary source of livelihood of millions of people. This means that the arbitrary anti climate justice coal auction are unwanted, undesirable and unwise.

In addition, to the said plights of coal mining in Odisha, green forest and crop land for another 9 iron ores blocks will be finished by the corporates in Keonjhar and Sundargarh districts. Notification for auctions have been issued, including in rich and deep natural forests of 9 lakhs saal trees in Dangalpada of Keonjhar district. Neither the present government nor of future governments has right to finish these precious non-renewable natural resources. Once lost these will be lost forever. To prevent global warming and stop emissions of green-house gases not only the unmindful and endless mining has to be stopped but the moment demands to increase our conservation efforts and.

- Prafulla Samantara is President, Lokshakti Abhijan and Adviser NAPM India.