FOOD FOR THOUGHT GR1 WINNERS flow in the drought

RENEE GEELEN

For fifteen of the past 20 years, much of Australia has been in drought. To put that in context, Australia has officially been in drought for 30 years of the past one hundred years, so a disproportionate amount of reduced rainfall years have happened recently.

For racehorse trainers and owners, this raises one particularly interesting question – how does drought affect the quality of the racehorse grown? The simple answer is “not at all”.

Given the time it takes to grow a young horse from foal until racehorse, the twenty foal crops from 1995 to 2014 were looked at, so the youngest horses in the data set have just turned five (spring 2019). Arion Pedigrees provided a list of all Gr1 winners by year of foaling in Australia from 1930, and this was aligned against drought data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. In the twenty years of selected data, the eastern seaboard of Australia was in drought for 12 of those years (1995, 2001-2009, 2013, 2014). The average number of Gr1 winners foaled in Australia during those 20 years was 34.6 per crop.

The eight years with average or wetter than average rainfall had 36.75 Gr1 winners per crop, while the drought years achieved 33 Gr1 winners on average. Most interesting in the data is when you look across the last ninety years, there is a slight uplift for every foal crop born two years after the end of a drought, with these crops producing a slightly higher number of Gr1 winners than the average. All of these figures make it look like there is a minor disadvantage for horses born in drought years, but this isn’t really true when you step back and look at an entire foal crop. As a percentage of foal crop, the fluctuations of Gr1 winners between crops is so infinitesimally small as to make no real practical difference at all. Given the vast number of factors that go into producing a Gr1 winner, this makes common sense. The other complicating factor when looking at this data is that the number of Gr1 races has risen over time, and the foal crop has fallen, so the chance of breeding a Gr1 winner has also risen (from approximately 30 Gr1 winners in 18,000 foals born per annum in the 1990s to 35 in 13,000 currently). The only conclusion for breeders, owners, and trainers is that a drought has no impact on the quality of horses born in those years.

Kitchwin Hills have produced many good horses born since the current drought began in 2013, including Magic Millions Gr1 graduate Pierata (Pierro) who was born in 2014, and has won eight races including the Gr1 All Aged Stakes, and most recently the $1million Redzel Stakes. Sold at the 2018 Magic Millions Sale is Kitchwin Hills graduate Yes Yes Yes (Rubick) who won the Gr2 Todman Stakes last season, recently ran second in the Gr1 Golden Rose, and conquered this year’s edition of the world’s richest race on turf, The Everest. Fellow Magic Millions graduates produced by Kitchwin Hills during this drought are Gr2 winner Dubious and Listed winner Our Crown Mistress.

Mick Malone spoke to us about how Kitchwin Hills are managing in this drought. “It’s as tough as can be. There is a perception that drought only happens to cattle and sheep farmers, because horse studs can’t claim rebates on travel or feed. In the breeding game, the margins are already getting tighter, which is particularly hard for small breeders and farms. During this drought, our feed bill has doubled but our agistment income has stayed the same, so we are spending more than we are getting in. Staff numbers are up as well, because this much feed takes more staff to handle. Across the Hunter, no one is immune. Even people who can irrigate are struggling because the cost is ridiculous, and we can only rely on our clients to pay extra to a certain level before that becomes unsustainable. I’ve heard many smaller farms are losing clients over increased agistment charges, but without the increase, people will go broke. It’s an impossible balance.” Malone expanded his point on irrigation based on their location on the edge of the Isis River. “We have river frontage on the Isis River which comes from Crawney Mountain, but there is no water in the river. Even the Hunter River, which used to be reliable, is down to a trickle.” With regards to the challenges in growing good horses in a drought, Malone said, “The animal husbandry from all breeders in the Hunter Valley is astounding. Wherever you go, all the stock look amazing. The horses wouldn’t know they are in a drought because of the quality of feed going into them. Managing their feeding is more consistent in a drought, more expensive too, because there isn’t the flush of fresh grass with high sugars. In a good spring with tons of grass, you tend to back off the feed a bit, then end up with a yo-yo style feeding regime depending on the pasture and condition of the individual horses. Drought feeding is more consistent because all their intake is measured.” Yarraman Stud, located outside Scone in the Hunter Valley has no river frontage, but has managed to sell many top class horses born in the current drought, including Magic Millions graduates Gr2 winner Time to Reign, Gr3 winner and internationally Gr1 placed Houtzen, Gr3 winner Zelady’s Night Out, Gr3 winner Crack the Code, Gr3 winner Invincible Star, and several other Listed winners. Arthur Mitchell talked to us about how Yarraman was managing in the drought. “Good. We have a good supplier who sends us two types of hay, oaten and lucerne. It’s expensive, but we are handling that alright. And we have a good supply of hard feed. It’s very tough on pasture. Our irrigation has run out, but so far, we are managing okay without it by being selective in how we manage our water supplies.” When asked what the important factors are for growing strong, healthy young horses in a drought, Mitchell said, “The key is managing feeding, by not over-feeding and with the right supply of quality feed. Our current yearlings look as big and strong as any other year, and we are on target to offer a nice crop of yearlings at the upcoming sales. They’ve all x-rayed well to date, which is a measure that we are getting the right balance of feed into them. Plenty of good horses are born in drought years, and the theory is that the horses aren’t getting the fluctuating sugars that green grass gives them, so their feed intake is more consistent.” Eureka Stud in Queensland’s Darling Downs region has been in the news recently thanks to their exciting young stallion Spirit of Boom, and among their many drought graduates are Magic Millions sold Listed winners Outback Barbie and Ef Troop. Scott McAlpine outlined how planning was the key to how Eureka Stud was coping in the current drought. “In the last eighteen months, we’ve become more dependant on buying fodder from across Australia. I like having the hay sheds at least half full. It makes me feel like I’m two steps ahead, and that means we buy hay when it becomes available. Just recently we bought 500 ton of hay from a property a couple of hours drive away from us, but that creates an issue of cash flow. Now I have to pay for three months’ worth of hay in one go. Around here, horses come first, and family comes second. Buying the correct fodder allows us to get the best results, with regards to growing young horses, or cycling broodmares. The other issue is that feeding is so time consuming – before the drought we had two staff doing the feeding part time, now we have four full time staff who only do feeding. We are also only using our irrigation to grow hay because that’s the best use of the water.

If the horses are put onto irrigated pasture, we get about a twenty percent loss of nutrients because the horses walk and roll on the grass, whereas if we cut it for hay, we get to use all of that food. It’s about making sure we get maximum value for our irrigation spend. By the same token, we stockpile hay, and plan to have 1,000 ton of hay stored by the end of May each year. This takes away some of the issues around cost because we can buy hay in bulk when its available at a reasonable price, and use our stockpiles when it fluctuates too high, allowing us to stay ahead of the price war on feed. However, there will always be a high cost for this feed because its coming from far away. We were lucky to get hay locally recently, but most of the time we are buying from Victoria or South Australia, and need to include freight costs in the feed as well.”

McAlpine talked about weather patterns at Eureka Stud, saying, “The weather people aren’t very positive that we will see any decent rain any time soon. The last few years, we’ve had what I call block rain, as opposed to the regular rain we usually get. Most years, Eureka Stud gets 28 inches of rain a year, spread out evenly. Last year we got 12 inches, and the year before 11 inches, but it’s not just the rain deficit but the pattern that causes the problem. We’ve been getting 4-5 inches in one month in spring, so we plant seed, but then no more rain appears until autumn, so the crops die, leaving us having spent money on seed and fertiliser for no outcome. Then in autumn we get 5-6 inches in one month, then again nothing until spring. The Darling Downs is a huge grain growing region, but there have been no crops for the last three seasons. Eureka Stud is buying in grain from South Australia, and our ports are importing not exporting grain. The economic ramifications for Queensland are horrendous. The biggest concern we have going forward is water. Horses drink a lot of water every day, and while we have a good supply from an underground system, we need rain to replenish that system. There are towns who are close to running out of water in this drought, and that’s scary. How do you truck enough water for a town of 20,000 people when it dries up?”

Eureka Stud has a strong record of producing good racehorses in these tough conditions, and McAlpine said, “We employed a nutritionist to ensure we were feeding a proper balanced diet that compensated for the lack of green feed. Our horses look to be better developed than in previous years (before employing the nutritionist) and in the long term, we are seeing better bone development too. We hope to eradicate x-ray issues caused by a lack of trace elements. Our horses might be costing a lot of money to produce, but they look magnificent, so the money is well spent.”

Stuart Ramsay’s Turangga Farm has a long history of producing top class horses, and their recent drought born group winners sold at Magic Millions is just the tip of the long list of Gr1 horses from the Segenhoe Valley property. Champagne Cuddles has proven to be a tough competitor, winning at Gr2 level and being Gr1 placed on four occasions. The four year old mare won on debut as an October two year-old, and is still racing with earnings to date of over $1.4million. Farson won the Gr2 Autumn Classic before being exported to Macau where he added to his winning record, while Charge won the 2018 Gr3 Red Anchor Stakes. Several other up and coming group placed types have also gone through Turangga Farm’s Magic Millions drafts.

Stuart Ramsay was pragmatic about the current drought. “It’s no different to any other year, you have to manage the environment, the available feed, and the horses. Drought is part of life on rural land, of course we are concerned about this one, but you have to keep going. We also have nearly half a million acres in western Queensland to manage, and our cattle keep putting on weight. I haven’t bought a bale of hay yet. It’s all about managing over stocking, and working with nature, not against it.” Regarding horses born in drought years, Ramsay was positive. “There’ll be more good horses reared in drought years than in good years. In a good year, they’ll be over fed. Fat horses might sell better, but they don’t run better, and most horses get killed through kindness. Feeding a stable diet where they grow at a steady rate on the right land is the key. Green feed looks pretty but it isn’t always the best for the horses. The biggest issue, at any time in any conditions, is the conversion of feed into bone and muscle. Athletes need to move and eat properly to grow. With the value of some horses, it’s tempting to wrap them up and overfeed them, but that’s not good for them in the long run.”

Buyers should inspect the latest crop of Magic Millions yearlings with the confidence that experienced farms have a deep knowledge of how to produce good horses in drought conditions. While the number of Gr1 winners born in every crop fluctuates slightly, on balance the overall chance of breeding or buying a Gr1 winner is unaffected by the amount of rainfall, or not, that any farm receives.