Opinion
Lawrence Journal-World l LJWorld.com l Saturday, January 25, 2014
Federal President Barack Obama White House, Washington, D.C. 20500; (202) 456-1111 Online comments: www.whitehouse.gov/contact/ U.S. Sen. Jerry Moran (R) Russell Senate Office Building, Courtyard 4 Washington, D.C. 20510; (202) 224-6521; Website: www.moran.senate.gov U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 109 Hart Senate Office Building Washington, D.C. 20510; (202) 224-4774; Website: www.roberts.senate.gov U.S. Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-1st District) 126 Cannon House Office Building Washington, D.C. 20515; (202) 225-2715; Website: www.huelskamp.house.gov U.S. Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R-2nd District) 1122 Longworth House Office Building Washington, D.C. 20515; (202) 225-6601; Website: www.lynnjenkins.house.gov U.S. Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-3rd District) 214 Cannon House Office Building Washington, D.C. 20515; (202) 225-2865; Website: www.yoder.house.gov U.S. Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-4th District) 107 Cannon House Office Building Washington, D.C. 20515; (202) 225-6216; Website: www.pompeo.house.gov
U.S. economy regaining global status Washington — A funny thing happened on the way to the decline of the United States and the rise of China, Brazil and other emerging markets: Many prominent analysts began wondering if the pessimistic predictions about America were wrong — and whether it was the emerging markets that were heading for trouble. These international economic fads are always suspect, up or down. They seem to follow what I was told years ago (facetiously) was the guiding rule for columnists: Simplify, then exaggerate. So beware this latest revisionism, just like any other variety. But there are some startling new assessments of global economic trends that stand the “declinist” wisdom of recent years on its head. The revisionists argue that U.S. economic fundamentals are now stronger than they seemed, and that those of the BRICs — the emerging giants Brazil, Russia, India and China — are weaker. Certainly, the financial markets are registering this new view. The Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index fell 5 percent last year, compared to a nearly 30 percent gain for the U.S. benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 index. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund predicted Tuesday that economic growth will rise this year and next in America, and decline both years in China. One influential revisionist has been Antoine van Agtmael, the economist who coined the hopeful term “emerging markets” in 1981. Van Agtmael has
David Ignatius
davidignatius@washpost.com
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As global competitors stumble, the U.S. has been picking up speed. Remarkable new shale oil and gas discoveries have reduced America’s energy vulnerability and made it a relatively low-cost manufacturing nation.” written several blistering assessments recently about the former rising superstars. “A few years ago there was a widespread feeling that the developed world had fallen off its pedestal — that Asia had not only escaped the global financial crisis but that its system was somehow superior. That overconfidence seems gone now. Instead there is a sense of vulnerability,” he wrote in Foreign Policy in June 2012. “The despair and fear felt by many in the United States is misplaced. In fact, there are early signs that the United States may be regaining some of its lost competitiveness in manufacturing and that China is losing some ground.”
The reversal of expectations was summarized last month in a report by Goldman Sachs titled “Emerging Markets: As the Tide Goes Out.” The authors warned that economic difficulties in China, Brazil, Russia, Turkey and other investment darlings aren’t just cyclical but require “a significant reassessment of emerging market countries” and an expectation of “underperformance and heightened volatility over the next 5 to 10 years.” China is the bellwether, and here the Goldman Sachs report echoed themes cited by China’s own leaders: the country’s unbalanced growth; its demographic decline, with fewer young workers resulting in higher labor costs; its potentially deadly pollution problems; and its financial weaknesses. This last theme was highlighted in a December report by China’s Academy of Social Sciences, which noted that localgovernment debt reached the “alarming level” of about $3.3 trillion by the end of 2012, double what it was in 2010. This municipal credit bubble poses a delicate dilemma for Chinese leaders: The country’s growth is slowing, with the IMF projecting that it will fall from 7.7 percent last year to 7.5 percent in 2014 and 7.3 percent in 2015. As the rate of growth shrinks (especially compared to its double-digit expansion of a decade ago), there’s a danger the local-debt balloon will pop, with significant social and political repercussions.
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Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) 1st Floor, 120 S.W. 10th Ave., Topeka 66612 (785) 296-4564; sos@sos. ks.gov Attorney General Derek Schmidt (R) 2nd Floor, 120 S.W. 10th Ave., Topeka 66612 (785) 296-2215; general @ksag.org
— Compiled by Sarah St. John
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Treasurer Ron Estes (R) 900 S.W. Jackson St., Suite 201, Topeka 66612 (785) 296-3171; ron@treasurer.ks.gov
Janet Waugh, (D-District 1) 916 S. 57th Terrace, Kansas City, KS 66106 (913) 287-5165; JWaugh1052@aol.com Carolyn Wims-Campbell, (D-District 4) 3824 SE Illinois Ave., Topeka 66609 (785) 266-3798; campbell4kansasboe@verizon.net
Kansas Board of Regents 1000 S.W. Jackson St., Suite 520, Topeka, KS 66612; (785) 296-3421 www.kansasregents.org Tim Emert, Independence, chairman Shane Bangerter, Dodge City Ann Brandau-Murguia, Kansas City, Kan. Mildred Edwards, Wichita Helen Van Etten, Topeka Fred Logan Jr., Leawood Ed McKechnie, Arcadia Robba Moran, Hays Kenny Wilk, Lansing Andy Tompkins, president and CEO
— David Ignatius is a columnist for Washington Post Writers Group.
From the Lawrence Daily Journal-World for Jan. 25, 1914: “Prof. J. B. Whelan, instructor in chemistry at the Univeryears sity of Kansas, was quite painago fully burned in a gas explosion IN 1914 which occurred at his home, 1902 Rhode Island street, about midnight last night. Prof. Whelan is suffering considerable pain from burns on his face and hands and it is feared that his features will be marked as a result of the accident.... In some way a spark was formed in a combination gas and electric light fixture and this spark ignited escaping gas causing the explosion.” “A fire caused by gasoline did $500 damage to a motorcycle garage belonging to Walter S. Dyche at 1014 Massachusetts street about 9:30 this morning. A check valve on a brazier with which the proprietor was working failed to operate and a spray of gasoline was thrown over him.
Gov. Sam Brownback (R) Suite 212-S, State Capitol, Topeka 66612 (785) 296-3232 or (877) 579-6757 governor@state.ks.us
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Brazil is another “economic miracle” that’s getting a skeptical new look. The Goldman Sachs report cites the country’s problems of high taxes, costly and distorting government subsidies and low labor productivity. Financial markets have taken note, with Brazilian equities, currency and local debt all falling by double-digits last year. One surprising new problem economy is Turkey, another stellar performer over the last decade. Because of its heavy external debt, estimated at about 45 percent of its gross domestic product, “Turkey is one of the economies most vulnerable to a shift in sentiment away from emerging markets,” notes Goldman Sachs. Turkey has new domestic political strains, too, as Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Superman of a few years ago, copes with a domestic corruption scandal and the fracturing of his Islamist political base. Some analysts predict Erdogan will face a challenge from Turkey’s popular President Abdullah Gul. As global competitors stumble, the U.S. has been picking up speed. Remarkable new shale oil and gas discoveries have reduced America’s energy vulnerability and made it a relatively low-cost manufacturing nation. It was a telling example of the new mood that The Wall Street Journal titled an article last year about van Agtmael and other revisionists: “Is the U.S. the Next Hot Emerging Market?”
OLD HOME TOWN
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Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger (R) 420 S.W. Ninth St., Topeka 66612 (785) 296-3071 or (800) 432-2484 commissioner@ksinsurance.org
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WSU respect To the editor: As the Wichita State University basketball team continues its winning streak, there is not much enthusiasm around the state for the Shockers. Nor was there much when they went to the finals last year. It seems as if it ends at the Sedgwick County line and can’t go any further, like a mime caught in a box he can’t escape from. It’s understandable that the national media ignores WSU, but for places like Lawrence, Topeka or Kansas City to do likewise, that is troubling. After all, this is a Kansas team, and their efforts should be lauded. And yet, other than here in Wichita, everyone knows and understands that is not going to happen. Mainly that is because the Kansas Jayhawks are the big draw when it comes to basketball. But this year they aren’t doing so well, and that was
painfully clear in their game against Oklahoma State. As the Shockers continue to win, things won’t change much, nor will attitudes. And should they win the national championship this year, will that even change things? No, probably not, but it should, for WSU and the Shockers basketball team and their coach deserve the respect that they are due. Michal Betz, Wichita
Team spirit To the editor: Regarding Judith Galas’ letter “Taking a Stand” (Jan. 22) on Rev. Dulin and his brother: You will be glad to know that many teams did take a stand back in those days. I was on the basketball team at Benedictine College in the ’50s. We went to the NAIA tournament in Kansas City in 1957. We had a black player (Bob Veale, who later pitched for the Pittsburgh Pi-
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Abortion access To the editor: Forty-one years after Roe v. Wade, politicians still seem to think that they have a mandate to restrict a woman’s access to a safe and legal abortion, despite broad disapproval of these laws from nearly all demographics. Many of these restrictions make it nearly impossible for someone to actually have access to an abortion. In some states you have to drive three or more hours to get to the nearest abortion pro-
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rates) on the team and we went out to eat at a cafeteria. As we were filling our trays a manager came out to tell us that our black player couldn’t eat there. We all left our trays, some already filled, and walked out. I have told this story many times over the years and have learned of other instances like this. So, yes, Judith it did happen. Tom Waller Lawrence
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vider — only to then have to wait 72 hours to have the procedure done. That means, unless you are able to afford a three-night stay in a hotel or two 300-mile round-trip car rides, your access to an abortion has effectively been made null and void. Abortion is a deeply personal and often complex decision for an individual to make. Ultimately, decisions about whether to choose adoption, end a pregnancy, or raise a child must be left to a each person, their family, and their faith, with the counsel of their doctor. Fortunately, more than ever, the new generation believes in giving individuals actual access to their legal rights. Sixty-eight percent of millenials believe abortion should be made available in their community. Millenials believe Kansas “gynoticians” like Rep. Allan Rothlisberg should stop playing doctor when it comes to individuals’ personal, private decisions. Katherine Gwynn, Lawrence THE WORLD COMPANY
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