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General U.S. Army Corps of Engineers .............770 945-9531 Water Release Schedules ....................770 945-1466 Recreation/Water level Info ..................770 945-1467 DNR, Law Enforcement Division ..........800 241-4113 Lake Lanier Association Inc..................770 503-7757

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By Bev Knight

When people hear the word “recession,” they automatically assume the housing market is going to crash. Rest assured, that is NOT the case this time. In fact, real estate often stays steady during a recession. The extreme housing challenges of 2008-09 were mostly due to a mortgage crisis which will not be repeated this time.

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of a decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and we saw that this year. While the news outlets report the looming recession like it’s Godzilla at the city gates, many factors indicate it is likely to be mild. Employment right now is near record highs. The two declines in GDP were modest. There is still a shortage of inventory, so demand still exceeds supply. The problem right now is with mortgage rates which follow inflation. The Fed froze these for several months while inflation was starting to rise.

Once the freeze was lifted, the rates rose quickly to catch up with the inflation. In January of 2022, the rate was around 3.5% for a 30-year fixed mortgage with 10% down. In mid-November of 2022, the rate is around 6.2%. Don’t follow the crowd and let this deter you from buying a home. It does not mean your mortgage payments have doubled because there are other factors in play. One of Warren Buffett’s most famous quotes advises us to be, “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Too many people are fearful, so now’s your chance.

During the seller’s market frenzy of the past few years, there was such a shortage of homes for sale and unprecedented demand from buyers looking to escape the crowded cities during the pandemic, almost every transaction resulted in multiple offers, no contingencies, and a sales price well above list price. Homes were purchased without inspections, financing or sales contingencies were almost unheard-of, and buyers took big risks with every transaction.

Today, we are shifting back to a normal market where sales prices are often below list, contingencies are tolerated and most importantly, virtually all contracts include a due diligence inspection period. Consider the accompanying chart.

As you can see, payments have not doubled, and we can all benefit from a normalized market. First and foremost, the transactions are safer because you can now have inspections and contingencies. If you find a big problem during due diligence, you do not have to lose your earnest money to get out of the contract. These days, buyers are not required to have cash to “win the bid” on a home. Contingencies are likely to be allowed. Unless the home is already priced below market value, buyers often get a percentage off the list price as well as other considerations. If the house has a major flaw, the current owner will probably have to fix it before closing which saves the buyer a world of money and headaches. For just a little more money a month, buyers can live their dream on Lake Lanier and without losing sleep over hidden defects. Plus, there are definitely mortgage programs that can lower your rate.

Prices have come down a bit; but especially on the lake, they may not fall much more. Sellers are not going back to pre-frenzy prices. Many of the factors that drove the prices up, including big-city crime, traffic, ability to work at home, stay-cation mentality, etc., are still present. Yes, rates have gone up, but experts predict that they will be around 5% by the beginning of 2023, and the pent-up demand created during the buying lull (caused by risSee Knight, page 46

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Continued from Page 45 ing rates) will drive the market. If you want to kick yourself for not selling during the frenzy, consider this. Yes, you might have sold the house for a little more, but then you’d have to turn around and buy a house in the same seller’s market. What you gained as a seller, you’d likely lose as a buyer. Today, sellers probably have more equity in their homes than ever, and appraisals are more likely to come in at the sales price. Plus, buyers are less likely to bail on the transaction if they feel like they are paying a fair market value. This was a problem during the frenzy.

A normal, balanced real estate market is better for all of us. Most of the time, if you’re selling you’re probably buying, too; and buying was a challenge for everyone. It is best to work in a healthy market where contingencies are the norm and transactions are likely to close. Stay calm, ignore the negative press, and enjoy living on the lake. Your investment is safe.

Bev Knight is lead agent for the Good Life Group, specializing in lake properties in North Georgia. Visit www.housesonlanier.net.

Knight

Continued from Page 36 and to download plant-specific publications, visit extension.uga.edu/publications.

Next month: Learn how to maximize your garden from Nathan Wilson, owner of Lanier Nursery and Gardens and speaker at the Hall County Master Gardeners Fall Symposium.

Pamela A. Keene is senior writer for Lakeside News and a Hall County Master Gardener. She also writes for more than a dozen publications across the country, covering features, travel and gardening. Continued from Page 14

country. Also, the import tariff was 100 percent, so smuggling was a lucrative business, (if you didn’t get caught), so border security was extremely tight.

The premise was that the yacht would tow a buoy at very slow speed. A safety diver with a spare full scuba tank would be secured about 20 feet below the buoy. Baldesare would swim submerged behind the buoy.

Every half hour a second diver would go into the water and the two of them would exchange a new air tank for the one Baldesare had been using. The first diver would come back aboard, and the new diver would assume the duty as safety man for the next half hour until the process was repeated. Baldesare would remain underwater for the entire distance. If he broke the surface at any time, the dive was finished, and the challenge would be considered a failure.

Our support team consisted of about a dozen sailors, including a Navy photographer. We had all our dive gear plus a large air compressor and battery of air storage cylinders with a manifold to recharge our scuba tanks. We had scrounged all this equipment from the Naval Air Station and used a Navy truck to transport it the hundred or so miles to the take off point. None of us were in uniform because if there was a problem, the Navy would disavow any knowledge of our involvement.

When we arrived at the Spanish Naval base, we found that the admiral in charge did not speak English. I was the only one of our crew who was fluent in both Castilian as well as Andalusian Spanish. You can imagine how cool I felt as a lowly Third-Class Gunners Mate conversing with these commanders, captains, and admirals!

Once we had all the equipment aboard the yacht and were ready to go, Baldesare held a press conference. He was a consummate showman and obviously had done this before. He showed off all his ultramodern dive gear (most of it was much better than ours, since we were still using stuff left over from the Korean War)! He also had a “bang stick” for repelling sharks! This consisted of a three-foot long pole with a 12-gauge shotgun shell mounted on the end. If a shark got within range of the stick, you just poked it at its side and goodbye shark! Now, there were no sharks within 300 miles of the strait, but nobody mentioned that!

The dive went off without a hitch, and everything worked out exactly as planned. When you’re working with a bunch of guys who deal with explosives on a regular basis, you know attention to detail is impeccable. You don’t get a second chance if something goes wrong.

Although we started directly across from French Morocco, the current swept us through the strait to Spanish Morocco. The total distance was about 25 miles, although Baldesare only had to swim eight miles because of the current behind us. The entire swim lasted about eight hours.

The Spanish newspapers were delighted that he had swum from Spain to Spanish Morocco and had a field day! From my viewpoint as a 20-year-old kid, this was the thrill of a lifetime! Little did I know that there would be many more thrills to come!

Mendes has been sailing all his life and on Lake Lanier for the past 25 years. His family owns a marina/bar/restaurant so he has plenty of real life experiences to draw from. His favorite line: “You can’t make this stuff up.”

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