Industry Outlook A Forecast for the Countertops Industry for 2015 and Beyond U.S. Housing Starts Historical Data
By Kevin Cole, Editor Year
Total
2006
1,801,000
1,465,000
336,000
2007
1,355,000
1,046,000
309,000
2008
905,000
622,000
283,000
2009
554,000
445,000
109,000
It is, at best, difficult to predict any one of
2010
587,000
471,000
116,000
2011
608,800
430,600
178,200
each other in a variety of ways, there are no
2012
780,600
535,300
245,300
2013
924,900
617,600
307,300
2014
1,005,800
648,000
357,800
When it comes to predicting the future,
you can find just about as many variations in forecasts as you can find forecasters themselves. Our economy is not only a
complex thing, but it can also be quite fickle. the moving parts, but when they all affect
“sure things.” Many of the big picture items can have huge repercussions on any of a
number of subset items. However, careful
study of particular factors that most affect an
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
industry segment, certainly can help develop a relatively solid estimation of how that industry
segment might fair going forward. In this case, we will take a look at the factors that play the
largest role in the countertop industry, and try to paint a picture of what 2015, and beyond, might look like.
While starting with a consensus of the experts who’ve chimed in on the general economy is a good beginning point, one must track the
commonalities and differences through more specific areas that interplay more closely
with the countertop market. And that trail to
specificity is the challenge in developing just such a piece as this outlook article.
However, having looked at a variety of
both broader economic and more closely
allied factors, the conclusion points toward 24 • Vol. 8 / Issue 1 • International Surface Fabricators Association
Single-family
Multi-family
Figure 1
continued improvement in the countertop
industry. Of course, as always, conditions
are subject to local and regional factors that cannot be taken into account in a broad overview, as is found here.
Anecdotally, it is relatively easy to say that things are going well for the countertop
industry. Business seems to be up just about everywhere, and closures and consolidation have slowed to a pace where it is relatively
unheard of. But, it is the empirical data that
must be examined from the top down to move
beyond just what we are hearing on the streets into true, workable numbers.
direction of prosperity as has been the trend of the past few years. The final 2014 GDP ended at 2.4 percent, and while this was below the expected predicted average for the year of around 2.7 percent, there were some very positive signs that came along with it. For one, the biggest factor driving the increase in GDP was increased consumer spending, which was up 4.3 percent annually — the strongest growth rate since Q1 2006. This is a very positive sign for the industry, which is built on the back of consumer spending. It also may mean more capital investment in businesses in 2015.
The General Economy
And, the predictions for GDP growth into 2015
There is little doubt that 2014 continued in the
are even stronger. The Federal Reserve Bank