Contributions to Science by Institut d'Estudis Catalans

Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona

Volume 7

contents Issue 1

June 2011

Serrat D

foreword distinguished lectures Margalef Prize Lecture 2010

Levin SA

Evolution at the ecosystem level: On the evolution of ecosystem patterns

CONTRIBUTIONS to SCIENCE

CONTRIBUTIONS to

SCIENCE

Fonseca Prize Lecture 2009 Lovelock JE

Climate change on a live Earth

Celebration of Earth Day at the Institute for Catalan Studies, 2009 Bradley RS

Natural archives, changing climates

Llebot JE

Can we be confident with climate models?

Ros JD

Biodiversity: Origin, function and threats Celebration of Earth Day at the Institute for Catalan Studies, 2010

Where do we stand on global warming?

Folch R

The immediate future: Challenges and scales

Llorca J

Energy from hydrogen. Hydrogen from renewable fuels for portable applications

Gozzer S, Domínguez M

Global climate change in the Spanish media: How the conservative press portrayed Al Gore’s initiative

Volume 7 Issue 1 June 2011

June 2011

Bradley RS

Volume 7 Issue 1

focus

forum Alegret S

Some salmon-colored keywords regarding various aspects of chemistry historical corner

Ryan C

Margalida Comas Camps (1892–1972): Scientist and science educator biography and bibliography

Alsina C

Pere Pi Calleja (1907–1986)

Barcelona • Catalonia

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CONTRIBUTIONS to

SCIENCE

Instructions to authors

Free online access via www.cat-science.cat http://revistes.iec.cat/contributions/

General Contributions to Science publishes two kinds of articles, specialized reviews and general articles on scientifical and technological research (see front cover).

In the text, the position for a table is to be marked by «Table...» in the middle of an extra line. The caption must explain in detail the contents of the table. As for the table itself, it must be written so that it can be read and understood without reference to the text. References to a table are to be handled in the same way as references to the text (see References).

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CONTRIBUTIONS TO SCIENCE The International Journal of the Biological Sciences Section and the Science and Tech nology Section of the Institute for Catalan Studies (IEC). Institut d’Estudis Catalans (IEC) http://www.iec.cat Contributions to Science is also available online at: www.cat-science.cat http://revistes.iec.cat/contributions/

Cover: Photograph of the Office National Météorologique, Paris, on 11 August 1925, at 14:07 h, towards the west. The color plate belongs to the book International Atlas of Clouds and of States of the Sky from the International Meteorological Committee. The Catalan version of the book, Atlas interna cional dels núvols i dels estats del cel, was published in Barcelona in 1935, with the collaboration of Eduard Fontserè, founder and director of the Meteorological Service of Catalonia, and former president of the Sciences Section of the Institute for Catalan Studies. ISSN print edition: 1575-6343 ISSN electronic edition: 2013-410X Legal Deposit: B. 36385-1999

Contributions to Science is a journal that aims to promote the international dissemination of scientific research performed in Catalonia, in any of its branches, both pure and applied. Contributions to Science also publishes research performed in countries with linguistic, cultural and historic links with Catalonia. It also publishes scientific articles of international standing related with all such territories, especially considered as a whole. The journal also covers studies performed in all parts of the world by scientists from such countries. Preference will be given to original articles in the form of critical reviews that deal with the present state of a scientific field of current interest, by one or several authors. Such articles should summarize the development, the present situation and, where possible, future perspectives of a research area in which the author or authors have participated directly. The journal will also publish articles, short communications, notes and news items of international interest on historical, economic, social or political aspects of research in Catalonia and its areas of influence. HANDLING OF MANUSCRIPTS Manuscripts should be sent to the Editorial Office through the journal’s web site. Please read the Instructions to Authors on the back cover of each issue. PUBLISHER AND ADVERTISEMENTS All business correspondence, reprint requests, requests for missing issues, per mission from the Publisher to reproduce published material and information on advertisements should be addressed to the Publishing Department.

SUBSCRIPTIONS Volume 7 (2 issues). Subscription orders should be sent to the Publishing Departament. The subscription fee for two issues (including handling charges) is 75 Euros (VAT not included). Airmail charges are available on request. COPYRIGHT AND RESPONSIBILITIES

This work including photographs and other illustrations, unless the contraty is indicated, is subjected to an Attribution—Non-Commercial—No Derivative Works 3.0 Creative Commons License, the full text of which can be consulted at http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/. You are free to share, copy, distribute and transmit the work provided that the author is credited and reuse of the material is restricted to non-commercial purposes only and that no derivative works are created from the original material. ADDRESSES Publishing Department: Servei Editorial Institut d’Estudis Catalans Carrer del Carme, 47 E-08001 Barcelona, Catalonia, EU Tel. +34 932701620 Fax +34 932701180 Email: piec@iec.cat Editorial Office: Nicole Skinner, Managing Editor Contributions to Science Institut d’Estudis Catalans Carrer del Carme, 47 E-08001 Barcelona, Catalonia, EU Tel. +34 932701629 Fax +34 932701180 Email: contributions@iec.cat

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Format of manuscript All contributions should be typed, double-spaced (including references, tables,...) on paper not exceeding 30 cm in height (standard A4 paper is appropriate), with wide margins and one side of the page only. It is the policy of the Journal to publish in English only (authors are recommended to have the manuscript thoroughly checked and corrected before submission). The Editors will warmy appreciate co-operation of authors in preparing papers in a manner that will facilitate the work of editing and publication. For research papers an abstract self-explanatory without reference to the text –in Catalan language, too– not exceeding 200 words should be provided. Authors must provide keywords. It is essential that the author responsible for post publication correspondence (the Corresponding author) should be identified on the manuscript. The first page of the manuscript should contain only the following: 1. Title of the paper containing keywords pertaining to the subject matter. No abbreviations should be used in the title. 2. Names (including forenames or initials) of the authors and name of the institute. If the publication originates from several institutes the affiliations of all authors should be clearly stated by using superscript numbers after the name and before the institute. 3. An abstract (in English and Catalan languages) not exceeding 200 words. 4. Full name and postal address of the author to whom all correspondence (including gallery proofs) is to be sent. Telephone and fax numbers as well as e-mail code should be included to speed up communication. 5. A list of abbreviations or acronyms used in the paper if they are not explained in the text. 6. Keywords (maximally 5), which will be used for compiling the subject index.

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Printed in Catalonia

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CONTRIBUTIONS to

SCIENCE 2011 Volume 7

Barcelona • Catalonia

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CONTRIBUTIONS to

SCIENCE Volume 7 Issue 1 June 2011

Barcelona • Catalonia

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CONTRIBUTIONS to

SCIENCE

Free online access via www.cat-science.cat http://revistes.iec.cat/contributions/

CONTRIBUTIONS TO SCIENCE The International Journal of the Biological Sciences Section and the Science and Tech nology Section of the Institute for Catalan Studies (IEC). http://www.iec.cat Contributions to Science is also available online at: www.cat-science.cat http://revistes.iec.cat/contributions/

Cover: Photograph of the Office National Météorologique, Paris, on 11 August 1925, at 14:07 h, towards the west. The color plate belongs to the book International Atlas of Clouds and of States of the Sky from the In ternational Meteorological Committee. The Catalan version of the book, Atlas interna cional dels núvols i dels estats del cel, was published in Barcelona in 1935, with the col laboration of Eduard Fontserè, founder and director of the Meteorological Service of Catalonia, and former president of the Sci ences Section of the Institute for Catalan Studies. ISSN print edition: 1575-6343 ISSN electronic edition: 2013-410X Legal Deposit: B. 36385-1999

Contributions to Science is a journal that aims to promote the international dissemina tion of scientific research performed in Cata lonia, in any of its branches, both pure and applied. Contributions to Science also pub lishes research performed in countries with linguistic, cultural and historic links with Cata lonia. It also publishes scientific articles of in ternational standing related with all such ter ritories, especially considered as a whole. The journal also covers studies performed in all parts of the world by scientists from such countries. Preference will be given to original articles in the form of critical reviews that deal with the present state of a scientific field of current in terest, by one or several authors. Such arti cles should summarize the development, the present situation and, where possible, future perspectives of a research area in which the author or authors have participated directly. The journal will also publish articles, short communications, notes and news items of international interest on historical, economic, social or political aspects of research in Catalonia and its areas of influence. HANDLING OF MANUSCRIPTS Manuscripts should be sent to the Editorial Office through the journal’s web site. Please read the Instructions to Authors on the back cover of each issue. PUBLISHER AND ADVERTISEMENTS All business correspondence, reprint re quests, requests for missing issues, per mission from the Publisher to reproduce published material and information on adver tisements should be addressed to the Pub lishing Department.

This work including photographs and other illustrations, unless the contraty is indicated, is subjected to an Attribution—Non-Com mercial—No Derivative Works 3.0 Creative Commons License, the full text of which can be consulted at http://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/. You are free to share, copy, distribute and transmit the work provided that the author is credited and reuse of the material is restricted to non-com mercial purposes only and that no derivative works are created from the original material. ADDRESSES Publishing Department: Servei Editorial Institut d’Estudis Catalans Carrer del Carme, 47 E-08001 Barcelona, Catalonia, EU Tel. +34 932701620 Fax +34 932701180 Email: piec@iec.cat Editorial Office: Nicole Skinner, Managing Editor Contributions to Science Institut d’Estudis Catalans Carrer del Carme, 47 E-08001 Barcelona, Catalonia, EU Tel. +34 932701629 Fax +34 932701180 Email: contributions@iec.cat Printed in Catalonia

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CONTRIBUTIONS to

SCIENCE Volume 7 Issue 1 June 2011

Editor-in-chief Ricard Guerrero Department of Microbiology University of Barcelona

Associate Editor Salvador Alegret

Founder Editor Salvador Reguant

Department of Chemistry Autonomous University of Barcelona

Department of Stratigraphy and Paleontology University of Barcelona

Editorial Board Joaquim Agulló, Technical University of Catalonia • Josep Amat, Technical University of Catalonia • Francesc Asensi, University of Valencia • Damià Barceló, Spanish National Research Council (Barcelona) • Carles Bas, Institute of Marine Sciences-CSIC (Barcelona) • Pilar Bayer, University of Barcelona • Xavier Bellés, Spanish National Research Council (Barcelona) • Jaume Bertranpetit, Pompeu Fabra University (Barcelona) • Eduard Bonet, ESADE (Barcelona) • Josep Carreras, University of Barcelona • Joaquim Casal, Technical University of Catalonia • Alícia Casals, Technical University of Catalonia • Oriol Casassas, Institute for Catalan Studies • Manuel Castellet, Autonomous University of Barcelona • Josep Castells, University of Barcelona • Jacint Corbella, University of Barcelona • Jordi Corominas, Technical University of Catalonia • Michel Delseny, University of Perpinyà (France) • Josep M. Domènech, Autonomous University of Barcelona • Mercè Durfort, University of Barcelona • Marta Estrada, Spanish National Research Council (Barcelona) • Gabriel Ferraté, Technical University of Catalonia • Ramon Folch, Institute for Catalan Studies • Màrius Foz, Autonomous University of Barcelona • Jesús A. García-Sevilla, University of the Balearic Islands • Lluís Garcia-Sevilla, Autonomous University of Barcelona • Joan Genescà, National Autonomous University of Mexico • Evarist Giné, University of Connecticut (USA) • Joan Girbau, Autonomous University of Barcelona • Pilar González-Duarte, Autonomous University of Barcelona • Francesc González-Sastre, Autonomous University of Barcelona • Joaquim Gosálbez, University of Barcelona • Albert Gras, University of Alacant • Gonzalo Halffter, National Polytechnic Institute (Mexico) • Lluís Jofre, Technical University of Catalonia • Joan Jofre, University of Barcelona • David Jou, Autonomous University of Barcelona • Ramon Lapiedra, University of Valencia • Àngel Llàcer, University Clinic Hospital of Valencia • Josep Enric Llebot, Autonomous University of Barcelona • Jordi Lleonart, Spanish National Research Council (Barcelona) • Xavier Llimona, University of Barcelona • Antoni Lloret, Institute for Catalan Studies • Abel Mariné, University of Barcelona • Federico Mayor-Zaragoza, Foundation for a Culture of Peace (Madrid) • Joan Massagué, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York (USA) • Adélio Machado, University of Porto (Portugal) • Gabriel Navarro, University of Valencia • Jaume Pagès, Technical University of Catalonia • Ramon Parés, University of Barcelona • Àngel Pellicer, New York University (USA) • Juli Peretó, University of Valencia • F. Xavier Pi-Sunyer, Harvard University (USA) • Norberto Piccinini, Politecnico di Torino (Italy) • Jaume Porta, University of Lleida • Pere Puigdomènech, Spanish National Research Council (Barcelona) • Jorge-Óscar Rabassa, National University of La Plata (Argentina) • Manuel RibasPiera, Technical University of Catalonia • Pere Roca, University of Barcelona • Joan Rodés, University of Barcelona • Joandomènec Ros, University of Barcelona • Xavier Roselló, Technical University of Catalonia • Claude Roux, University of AixMarseille III (France) • Pere Santanach, University of Barcelona • Francesc Serra, Autonomous University of Barcelona • David Serrat, University of Barcelona • Boris P. Sobolev, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russia) • Carles Solà, Autonomous University of Barcelona • Joan Anton Solans, Technical University of Catalonia • Rolf Tarrach, University of Luxembourg • Jaume Terradas, Autonomous University of Barcelona • Antoni Torre, Obra Cultural, L’Alguer (Sardinia) • Jaume Truyols, University of Oviedo • Josep Vaquer, University of Barcelona • Josep Vigo, University of Barcelona • Miquel Vilardell, Autonomous University of Barcelona • Jordi Vives, Hospital Clinic of Barcelona

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CONTRIBUTIONS to SCIENCE Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona

Volume 7

contents Issue 1

June 2011

Serrat D

foreword distinguished lectures Margalef Prize Lecture 2010

Levin SA

Evolution at the ecosystem level: On the evolution of ecosystem patterns Fonseca Prize Lecture 2009

Lovelock JE

Climate change on a live Earth focus Celebration of Earth Day at the Institute for Catalan Studies, 2009

Bradley RS

Natural archives, changing climates

Llebot JE

Can we be confident with climate models?

Ros JD

Biodiversity: Origin, function and threats Celebration of Earth Day at the Institute for Catalan Studies, 2010

Bradley RS

Where do we stand on global warming?

Folch R

The immediate future: Challenges and scales

Llorca J

Energy from hydrogen. Hydrogen from renewable fuels for portable applications

Gozzer S, Domínguez M

Global climate change in the Spanish media: How the conservative press portrayed Al Gore’s initiative forum

Alegret S

Some salmon-colored keywords regarding various aspects of chemistry historical corner

Ryan C

Margalida Comas Camps (1892–1972): Scientist and science educator biography and bibliography

Alsina C

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Pere Pi Calleja (1907–1986)

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CONTRIBUTIONS to SCIENCE, 7 (1): 9–10 (2011) Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona www.cat-science.cat

Pròleg

Foreword

Que l’activitat humana ha influït, i influeix, en el clima actual? Me’n guardaré prou de posar-ho en dubte! Les proves sem blen irrefutables. Ara, és capaç l’activitat humana de modificar les tendències i les oscil·lacions climàtiques que, d’una manera «natural» —sense presència significativa de la humanitat—, s’han produït al llarg de la història geològica? La Terra rep influències externes i internes que poden fer fluctuar el clima geològic. Els darrers dos milions d’anys, prin cipalment per moviments de la inclinació del l’eix de la Terra, per les diferències de radiació rebuda del Sol, per fases d’acti vitat volcànica excepcionals o, potser i també, per impactes de meteorits, s’han produït escalfaments i refredaments, cada cop més intensos i de durada més curta, que coneixem com a «glaciacions» i «períodes interglacials». Aquests canvis van provocar que les faunes i, entre elles, els nostres ancestres, fessin enormes migracions a la recerca de condicions millors per als seus costums i dietes, amb nombroses espècies que anaven desapareixent, o extingint-se, pel camí. Ara, i d’això ja fa més de deu mil anys, som clarament en un període intergla cial —relativament suau comparat amb el que, per exemple, es va donar fa uns quatre-cents mil anys— i dins d’aquest perío de també s’estan produint oscil·lacions climàtiques, d’un ordre menor, però que ja afecten l’espècie humana moderna, l’Homo sapiens sapiens, i que han condicionat bona part del final de la prehistòria, i tota la història, des del final del Paleolític su perior fins a la història contemporània. Per exemple, en els darrers 10.000 anys les geleres dels Alps han estat més petites que les actuals unes deu vegades. Per on Aníbal va passar amb els elefants camí de Roma, avui no hi podria passar. En els Pirineus mateixos, les geleres actuals són el resultat de la Petita Edat del Gel dels segles xvi-xviii, re fredament que, d’altra banda, va provocar una greu crisi socio econòmica, misèria i fam a bona part d’Europa. Des del punt de vista d’un geòleg, l’actual escalfament del planeta i el con següent retrocés de les geleres no és gens anormal i, a més, en èpoques històriques, aquests esdeveniments han estat be neficiosos per a una humanitat que depenia, més que ara, del clima. D’altra banda, en l’òptim climàtic més recent i durador, el nivell dels mars va arribar a pujar, aproximadament, un metre. És el màxim conegut de la transgressió marina postglacial, de nominada flandriana, i es va produir des dels 6000 mil als 3000 mil anys abans del present. El canvi climàtic actual, sense arri bar a algunes de les previsions catastrofistes i poc fiables, en aquest apartat, de l’informe d’Al Gore, ens pot conduir a aque lles condicions climàtiques que van fer pujar el nivell del mar un metre i que ja van afectar civilitzacions com la mesopotàmica i egípcia. I, per tant, cal estar preparat, com a fenomen previsi ble a llarg termini que és, com ho són les crescudes dels rius a més curt termini. La diferència fonamental, i més greu, entre aquells períodes antics i l’actualitat és que en les zones inunda bles, tant pel mar com pels rius, hi viuen actualment milions de

Human activity has influenced, and influences, the climate. I am certainly not one to question this statement! The evidence seems to be irrefutable. But is human activity capable of modi fying the climatic trends and oscillations that have ocurred na turally—without the significant presence of humanity—throug hout geological history? The Earth is subject to external and internal influences that cause fluctuations in its geological climate. Over the last 2 milli on years, mainly due to shifts in the Earth’s axis, differences in radiation from the Sun, phases of exceptional volcanic activity, and probably also to the impact of meteorites, there have been cycles of global cooling and warming. Over time, these glacial and interglacial periods have become increasingly intense and of shorter duration, resulting in huge faunal migrations, includ ing of our own ancestors, in search of more favorable habitats and diets. It has also led to the extinction or drastic reduction of many species. Now, and for more than 10,000 years, we have clearly been in an interglacial period—albeit a relatively mild one compared, for example, to the one around 400,000 years ago—with climatic oscillations on a smaller scale than in the past but nonetheless impacting the modern human species, Homo sapiens sapiens. Climate oscillations conditioned much of the later period of human prehistory and have continued to do so throughout history, from the end of the upper Palaeolithic until today. For example, during the past 10,000 years, the glaciers of the Alps have been smaller than they are today at least 10 times. The route Hannibal took with his elephants, on the way to Rome, would now be impassable. The Little Ice Age, which began in the 16th century and continued to the 18th, resulted in the gla ciers in the Pyrenees but also caused a serious socio-economic crisis, imposing misery and starvation throughout much of Euro pe. From a geological point of view, the current global warming and the consequent retreat of the glaciers are not at all abnor mal and, in certain historical eras, similar events would even have been advantageous for humankind, which, then much more than now, was very dependent on the weather. The more recent and lasting optimum climate included a rise in the sea level of approximately one meter. This post-glacial, Flandrian transgression, which occurred 6000 to 3000 years ago, significantly altered the Mesopotamian and Egyptian civili zations that had developed along river banks. Current climate developments, without considering the most drastic forecasts of Al Gore’s report, could lead to conditions that cause a simi lar rise in sea level. The fundamental, and most critical, differen ce between ancient times and today is that millions of people are now living in potential flood zones, i.e., by the sea and along rivers, and political and administrative borders hinder the mi gration necessary to achieve their resettlement. As such, there is a need for concentrated, international efforts to prepare not only for short-term changes, such as coastal flooding, but also for the changes predicted by long-term forecasts.

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10 Contrib. Sci. 7 (1), 2011

persones sedentàries i que les fronteres politicoadministratives no facilitaran les migracions necessàries per reallotjar els afec tats. Llavors, aquesta espècie, autodenominada Homo sapiens sapiens, que ha desenvolupat una tecnologia per a poder viure al desert, a l’Antàrtida o a l’espai, en condicions climàtiques inhabitables, ha de témer el canvi climàtic? La resposta és sí; el canvi climàtic, accelerat o no per l’activitat humana, és un pro blema per als humans, però és un problema petit i abastable comparat amb els reptes socioeconòmics plantejats per la su perpoblació, les fronteres i el model social d’uns quants. El 1810, uns mil milions d’éssers de la nostra espècie vivíem en tota la Terra. El 1925, passats cent quinze anys, ens havíem multiplicat per dos. I en poc més de quaranta anys, vam passar de tres a sis mil milions. Les previsions optimistes de la ONU fetes el 1989 ens situaven als deu mil milions el 2050, i al ritme que anem hi arribarem fins i tot abans. Per a gastar l’energia que consumeix cada un dels mil o mil cinc-cents milions d’ha bitants, considerats fins fa poc com el «primer món», un egipci hauria necessitat tenir més de cent esclaus al seu servei. I aquests mil o mil cinc-cents milions considerem èticament rao nable (i econòmicament interessant!) que els altres cinc mil mili ons puguin assolir el nostre grau de confort i, per tant, de des pesa d’energia. La superpoblació i la manca d’energia per a mantenir el model social que la tecnologia ens ha posat a l’abast, i ens enlluerna, són uns problemes reals que vull pensar que la ciència ens resoldrà, perquè de no resoldre’ls, la guerra per a aconseguir espai i fonts d’energia ja tindrà cura de reduir el nombre d’habitants, o d’extingir-los, faci fred o faci calor.

But should we Homo sapiens, who have developed the tech nology to be able to live in the desert, the Antarctic, and perhaps even in outer space, i.e., in supposedly uninhabitable climate conditions, be particularly concerned about climate change? The answer is yes; climate change, whether accelerated by human activity or not, is a human problem. However, it is perhaps less daunting than the socio-economic problems created by overpo pulation, borders, and the social models of many countries. In 1810, around 1000 million members of our species lived on Earth. In 1925, 115 years later, this number doubled; and in just over 40 years it had increased again, from three to six thou sand million. In 1989, the UN optimistically forecasted a popu lation of 10 thousand million by 2050; at our current pace, we will reach that level even earlier. To consume the same amount of energy as each one of the 1000–1500 million inhabitants li ving in the developed parts of the world, an ancient Egyptian would have needed more than 100 slaves. So how can we, these 1000–1500 million, consider it ethically reasonable (and economically beneficial!) that the world’s other 6000 million in habitants attain our same level of comfort, with its exorbitant energy demands? Overpopulation and a shortage of energy to maintain the social model that technology has put within our reach, and which continues to dazzle us, are real problems that I want to believe science can solve. Otherwise, the battle for territory and for energy/water resources will dramatically redu ce our numbers or perhaps even lead to our extinction, regard less of whether it is hot or cold. David Serrat President of the Science and Technology Section, IEC

David Serrat President de la Secció de Ciències i Tecnologia, IEC

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Margalef Prize Lecture 2010

CONTRIBUTIONS to SCIENCE, 7 (1): 11–16 (2011) Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona DOI: 10.2436/20.7010.01.102 ISSN: 1575-6343 www.cat-science.cat

Evolution at the ecosystem level: On the evolution of ecosystem patterns * Simon A. Levin Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, New Jersey

Resum. A mesura que problemes ambientals com la superpoblació, la sobrepesca, la contaminació i la pluja àcida han rebut més atenció pública, l’interès s’ha centrat més en vincles biogeoquímics i en estudis integrals d’ecosistemes sencers. Ramon Margalef va reconèixer fermament la notable influència intel·lectual que es podria obtenir mitjançant la transferència, d’un camp a un altre, de les perspectives i avenços de cadas cun d’ells. En aquest article voldria tractar la naixent unificació de la biologia de poblacions i la ciència dels ecosistemes. La gestió sostenible requereix que es relacionin les característi ques macroscòpiques de les comunitats i els ecosistemes amb els detalls microscòpics dels individus i les poblacions. Sostindré que les diferències que han impedit aquesta síntesi són artificials i que les hem de superar per a poder construir una ciència que ens permeti afrontar la pèrdua dels beneficis que es deriven dels ecosistemes. Paraules clau: Ramon Margalef ∙ biologia de poblacions ∙ ciència dels ecosistemes ∙ sostenibilitat ∙ dinàmica ecològica i evolutiva

Introduction The history of ecology is firmly grounded in natural history. Dar win’s voyage on the Beagle transformed our view of Nature, and set the stage for the emergence of the new discipline. Nat ural history was the cradle of ecology, and remains its foun dation. But understanding ecological patterns, and being able to manage precious resources, required understanding dynam ics. So ecology embraced mathematical formalisms, in a part nership that facilitated general theory. The theoretical con structs developed nearly a century ago by pioneers like Alfred Lotka and Vito Volterra remain at the core of research in ecolo

* Based on the lecture given by the author at the Faculty of Biology of the University of Barcelona, on 6 October 2010. Simon A. Levin was the recipient of the Ramon Margalef Prize in Ecology 2010. Correspondence: S.A. Levin, 203 Eno Hall, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 085441003, USA. Tel. +1-6092586880. Fax +1-6092586819. E-mail: slevin@princeton.edu

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Summary. As environmental problems like overpopulation, overfishing, pollution and acid rain commanded greater public attention, much focus shifted to biogeochemical linkages, and to holistic studies of whole ecosystems. Ramon Margalef rec ognized as forcefully as anyone the remarkable intellectual lev erage one could gain by transferring the unique perspectives and advances from one field to another. In this article I discuss the nascent unification of population biology and ecosystems science. Sustainable management requires that we relate the macroscopic features of communities and ecosystems to the microscopic details of individuals and populations. I argue that the distinctions that have prevented this synthesis are artificial, and that we need to overcome them to build a science that al lows us to deal with the loss of the benefits we derive from eco systems. Keywords: Ramon Margalef ∙ population biology ∙ ecosystems science ∙ sustainability ∙ ecological and evolutionary dynamics

gy today, and are must-learning for all young ecologists, no matter how mathematical they are. Indeed, in turning to math ematical approaches, ecology was rediscovering and extend ing insights from demographic investigations from the 17th century and later Malthus and Verhulst, with roots reaching back even to Fibonacci five centuries before. Meanwhile, evolutionary biology, the essential legacy of Dar win’s writings, developed its own mathematical foundations. Ronald Fisher, Sewall Wright and J.B.S. Haldane pioneered the development of a synthetic mathematical theory that deep ened our understanding of evolution, and provided a frame work for the modern synthesis of genetics and evolution that is at the center of all biological understanding. Theodosius Dobzhansky crystallized this view in his famous essay titled Nothing in Biology Makes Sense Except in the Light of Evolution [6]. Thus, the parallel developments in the two fields of ecology and evolutionary biology suggested natural synergies between them, but those synergies have been only partially realized. I will return to this theme later in the lecture. As ecology matured, it found partnerships elsewhere, in the physical sciences, where Ramon Margalef was one of the key

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figures in developing synthesis, as well as in engineering and molecular biology. Margalef recognized as forcefully as anyone the remarkable intellectual leverage one could gain by transfer ring the unique perspectives and advances from one field to another. He wrote, in an unpublished manuscript [28], “The reader may suspect that I distrust attempts to define the ortho dox approach to the ‘true’ science.” It is the heterodox ap proach that he championed, the reaching outside the box, that breaks new ground in science. Ramon Margalef was always reaching outside the box, looking for insights from thermody namics and wherever else he could find them, to shed new light on the problems of ecology. As environmental problems like overpopulation, overfishing, pollution and acid rain commanded greater public attention, much focus shifted to biogeochemical linkages, and to holistic studies of whole ecosystems. A chasm developed between such research and the more traditional evolutionary research, which addressed phenomena at much lower scales of organi zation—those of individuals and populations—and generally at much longer time scales than seemed relevant to most of those concerned with problems of environmental degradation. (But there were exceptions, like Harold Mooney and Paul Ehr lich, previous Margalef Prize winners; Tyler Prize winners Her bert Bormann and Gene Likens [1,9,34], who tried to bridge the gap; and of course the great polymath G. Evelyn Hutchin son [12]). The human footprint on our Earth looms large. It threatens our survival, and demands our attention… raising both ecologi cal and evolutionary challenges. My comments when accepting this prestigious prize, like much of my current work, were on the interface between ecology and evolution on the one hand, and the disciplines of economics, sociology, psychology, anthro pology and ethics on the other. These are the new partnerships that must be developed to deal with the threats to our environ ment [7,19]. However, in this article I want to discuss another and related dimension, the nascent unification of population bi ology and ecosystems science. I will argue that the distinctions that have prevented this synthesis are artificial, and that we need to overcome them to build a science that allows us to deal with the loss of the benefits we derive from ecosystems.

Levin

2. The indirect benefits of climate mediation, pollination, and sequestration of toxics as well as essential nutrients. 3. The aesthetic and ethical dimensions that humans as sign to natural places, and to wild plants and animals. Understanding what sustains these goods and services re quires firstly understanding how they depend upon biological diversity and ecosystem functioning, and secondly what sus tains those aspects of biological diversity and ecosystem func tioning that are essential to providing goods and services. In any ecosystem, there are characteristic patterns and process es that sustain ecosystem services, and not all species are equally important in the maintenance of these patterns and processes. Some species would be barely missed if they were to disappear. Others, like the chestnuts that disappeared from the forests of the northeastern United States, may be missed for some of the services they provide; but their elimination will not result in cascading collapses that threaten the identity of the ecosystems. The loss of yet others, however, ranging from nitrogen–fixing bacteria to keystone predators like the sea otter of the west coast of the United States and Canada, would fun damentally change the nature of these systems. Thus we need to identify the patterns that are the signatures of these ecosys tems, and to focus on the regularities while recognizing that control of those regularities rests at lower levels of organization, in particular species and functional groups, and in statistical ensembles of individuals and species. This implies a need to relate phenomena across scales, from cells to organisms to collectives to ecosystems to the biosphere, and to ask: How robust are the properties of ecosystems? How does the robustness of macroscopic properties relate to ecological and evolutionary dynamics on finer scales? How do ecosystems self-organize over ecological and evo lutionary time? These have been the focus of my work over several decades [22,24], with many themes that resonate with the similar ap proaches and perspectives of Ramon Margalef [29–31]. Mar galef pioneered the application of ideas from thermodynamics to ecological communities, recognizing fully the power of de veloping statistical approaches to the overwhelming complexi ty of ecosystems.

Towards a theory of sustainability The central problem facing societies in the next decades, and probably in the next centuries, is assuring a sustainable future. Sustainability of course means many things. It means a future free of major destructive conflict. It means promise of stability in financial markets and energy and economic security. It means the maintenance of biological and cultural diversity. But, at the core, it means the protection of the goods and services we derive from ecosystems, and which support our lives and their quality. These services include all the things ecosystems mean to us: 1. The food, fiber, fuel, and pharmaceuticals we derive di rectly.

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Population biology and ecosystems science Historically, population biology and ecosystems science went their separate ways. However, as I have implied earlier in this essay, this is no longer acceptable, if it ever was. Sustainable management requires that we relate the macroscopic features of communities and ecosystems to the microscopic details of individuals and populations. What maintains the robustness of these macroscopic patterns, such as the cycling of key ele ments? Over ecological and evolutionary time, how do we ex plain the regularities we see at the level of ecosystems and the biosphere? What maintains homeostasis? James Lovelock, a highly original and independent scientist, proposed a solution,

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Evolution at the ecosystem level: On the evolution of ecosystem patterns

which he called the Gaia Hypothesis [27]. There are many ver sions of Gaia, which has gone through a continual evolution of its own, both in Lovelock’s writing and in that of others [14]; but the basic idea is that the biota controls the physico-chemical environment at just the right conditions for its survival. In the extreme form of this concept, the biosphere is viewed as a su per-organism, selected for its macroscopic properties. No ecologist would question the basic thesis that the biota affects the physico-chemical environment at various scales; this indeed is the essence of current concerns about the ef fects of humans on our environment, and in particular anthro pogenic changes in land cover and pollution. The problem however is that Gaia describes macroscopic regularities and implies macroscopic regulation; but evolution operates at much lower scales of organization, through selfish competition among genotypes [3], and not for the ‘benefit’ of the whole system. Ecosystems and the biosphere are complex adaptive systems [23], in which heterogeneous collections of individual units interact locally, and change their genotypes or pheno types based on the outcomes of those interactions. Patterns emerge, to large extent, from phenomena at much lower levels of organization–those of individual agents, small spatial scales, and short temporal scales–and then feedback to affect the processes on those scales. Hence, we need a theoretical foun dation resting on our understanding of the principles of evolu tion, at the level of genotypes and populations, elucidating the features that underlie the robustness of the goods and services we derive from ecosystems. Lovelock is correct that we need to explain those regularities from an evolutionary perspective, but that explanation must be soundly based in evolutionary principles.

Evolution at the ecosystem level Marine ecosystems provide an ideal context in which to ad dress the challenges laid out in the preceding section, in part because of the rich theoretical history since Volterra, in part because of the increasing recognition that the management of declining marine resources requires an ecosystem perspective (NAS 1998), and in part because the wealth of data and analy ses emerging for marine microbial metagenomics presents unique opportunities beyond what are available in any other ecological system. In marine ecosystems, characteristic regu larities include the distributions of phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish at local to global scales; the availability and utilization of nutrients such as C, N and P; and the size-structure spectra across many orders of magnitude [2]. An impressive beginning to explaining the global distribution of phytoplankton has been carried out in the Darwin project [10], which unites ecological models of the oceans with a gen eral circulation model and allows competition to operate to se lect among a suite of candidate phenotypes. The robustness of the macroscopic features of these systems is then shown to emerge from the microscopic interactions, over ecological and (to some extent) evolutionary time. My research group, led by Michael Raghib-Moreno and Juan Bonachela, has begun a

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collaboration with the Follows group and others to embed this approach into an evolutionary framework, in which basic bio physical constraints define the set of feasible phenotypes. An adaptive dynamics approach [5,11] is then used to illuminate how evolution has shaped the assemblages we observe. To il lustrate how this framework can help to address such issues, I turn to a simpler but equally important problem, the explana tion of the Redfield ratios. Marine ecosystems exhibit remarkable constancy in ele ment ratios across broad regions, despite the fact that abso lute levels may vary considerably. This is true of the water col umn, of the primary producers and of the consumers of those primary producers. Seventy-five years ago, Albert Redfield [38] noted the constancy of C:N:P ratios in marine organic matter, and the ratios still bear his name. The characteristic ratios are not the same for every species, but averages over species within marine ecosystems show for example the typical 16:1 ratio for N:P. Redfield asked to what extent these ratios simply reflected organismal evolution to element availability as deter mined by geological phenomena, and to what extent on the other hand the ratios in the water column were controlled by biotic processes, in particular nitrogen fixation. He favored the latter mechanism. Tyrell, Lenton, and others [17,18,42] verified Redfield’s intuition that competition between nitrogen-fixing species and other phytoplankton can regulate oceanic N:P ra tios to match the N:P requirements of the non-fixers. The question of what determines these N:P requirements of phytoplankton remained. We [15,16] have used the adaptive dynamic framework to address this issue. Evolution in our ap proach is entirely at the traditional level of genomes and popu lations, and the environmental regularities emerge from this process of ‘niche construction’ [37]. This has echoes of Love lock’s view, but the patterns are shown to be emergent from evolution at the level of individuals and populations rather than representing any sort of selection at the ecosystem level. The initial approach, which can be extended to an unlimited variety of problems associated with the evolution of ecosystem properties, is to separate time scales, assuming evolution acts slowly to set the parameters that govern different types in com petition. On the fast, ecological time scale, a chemostat-like environment is considered, in which a monotypic species with given traits (stoichiometric requirements) reaches equilibrium with the available resources (Fig. 1). The system of equations representing this is shown in Fig. 2, where the equations de scribe P and N availability in the water column, P and N in stor age in the organisms, and organism biomass (B). In this formu lation, growth is according to Droop’s equation (Droop1977), but limited according to Liebig’s law by the nutrient in shortest supply relative to needs, and uptake (f) follows standard formu lations. On this fast, ecological time scale, it may be shown that the system goes to a globally stable equilibrium as nutrients be come limiting [4]. Indeed, in general, one nutrient will become limiting first, as in the models of Tilman [43]; which nutrient that will be depends on the external inputs of nutrients, as well as on the trait characteristics (phenotypic parameters) of the bio logical species–in other words, on its stoichiometric needs.

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Levin

mPS a(Pin – P)

fP(P)B fN(N)B

a(Nin – N)

ag(PS | B, NS | B) B

bg(PS | B, NS | B) mNS

Inorganic nutrients

Biomass

Stored nutrients

Fig. 1. Schematic for the model of N and P dynamics in marine eco systems. After [16,17].

So far, I have not discussed the evolutionary time scale at all. Evolution is assumed to occur on longer time scales, as mutation or other diversifying mechanisms, including possible invasion by novel types, introduces a competition among types with different nutrient use ratios, constrained by biophysical tradeoffs. When this is permitted, the system invariably evolves to co-limitation, since any other situation is invasible by types less dependent on the limiting resource. This equilibrium ap proach provides an answer to what the optimal type will be, but it overestimates the observed N:P ratio. To resolve this di lemma, we recall G.E. Hutchinson’s famous discourse on planktonic coexistence [13], in which he emphasized the im portance of environmental fluctuations in mediating non-equi librium coexistence. Hutchinson was focused initially on spa tially uniform fluctuations, but coexistence is achieved even more easily in the presence of localized disturbances that cre ate a non-equilibrium spatio-temporal mosaic, in which differ ent regions are in different stages of ecological succession [25,26]. Thus we temporarily abandon the equilibrium con straint, and determine the stoichiometric allocation that will re sult in maximal growth; the type that grows fastest is one that has a lower N:P ratio, reflecting higher investment in ribosomes [40]. Combining the equilibrium and non-equilibrium approach es then provides a possible explanation both for the observed N:P ratios, as well as for the existence of species with different N:P ratios mentioned earlier; it also addresses a favorite topic of Ramon Margalef, the evolution of successional patterns. In particular, within a spatio-temporal dynamic localized distur

Ambient

dP = a(Pin – P) – fP(P)B dt dN = a(Nin – N) – fN(N)B dt dPS

Storage

dt dNS dt

Biomass

= BfP(P) – nmin(Ps/(Ps + aB), Ns/(Ns + bB))aB – mPs = BfN(N) – n · min(Ps/(Ps + aB), Ns/(Ns + bB))bB – mNs

dB = nmin(Ps/(Ps + aB), Ns/(Ns + bB))B – mB dt

Fig. 2. Mathematical representation of Fig. 1.

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bances transiently favor species with high investment in ribos omes and hence N:P ratios below Redfield, to be replaced in a successional dynamic by those with higher investment in pro teins and hence N:P ratios above Redfield. The overall result is the coexistence of a range of species with N:P ratios neatly bracketing the observed range of N:P requirements, with the canonical Redfield ratio in the middle. This example is interesting in its own right, since patterns of nutrient use are among the most essential signatures of eco system functioning. But more important for the points I want to make in this paper are that the methodology, combining eco logical dynamics with evolutionary mechanisms, can be ex tended to a wide range of problems of interest. Hence, we have also used the approach to examine issues as diverse as seed dispersal [20,21], water uptake in arid environments [44], the evolution of nitrogen fixation [32,33] and the evolution of bacterial quorum sensing [35]. The procedure in all cases is to couple ecological dynamics on fast time scales with evolution ary dynamics on slow time scales in order to search for evolu tionarily stable strategies, relaxing the time-scale separation when necessary to deal with transient phenomena. It’s impor tant to note that the dynamics may be more complicated than this. Some evolutionarily stable strategies may not actually be reachable in this dynamic. More interestingly, the system can converge to points that are not evolutionarily stable, but rather evolutionary branch points [11,20,21], giving rise to coexist ence of strategies and more complicated outcomes. This is a rich area for investigation.

Conclusions and further thoughts A central problem in achieving sustainability is to understand how to characterize the robustness of the macroscopic prop erties of ecosystems and the biosphere, in terms of microscopic ecological and evolutionary dynamics mediated at the level of organisms and populations. Ecosystems and the biosphere are complex adaptive systems, whose properties are emergent from interactions on ecological and evolutionary time scales, at organizational levels far below those of the whole systems. The problems encountered in addressing these issues involve pub lic goods and common pool resources, and raise issues of the commons similar to those confronted in economic and social systems. This should not surprise us, because ecological sys tems are similar to economic systems in that individuals com pete for limited resources, exploit others, and form consortia and partnerships. Adam Smith wrote in 1776 that “By preferring the support of domestic to that of foreign industry, he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisi ble hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention. Nor is it always the worse for the society that it was not part of it. By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to pro mote it.” [39] But the notion of the invisible hand as justification

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for a pure free market society has been stretched far beyond Adam Smith’s original intent. Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz has written that “the reason that the invisible hand often seems invisible is that it is often not there,” [41] argues, with others, that Smith was fully cognizant of the limitations of free markets in achieving the common good. The global economic crisis in recent years has taught us that a pure free-market economy carries dangers for the collective good; the invisible hand of Adam Smith does not protect soci ety. These lessons are magnified for ecological and environ mental systems: There is no goddess Gaia to ensure that biospheric evolution will lead to a sustainable future, at least not according to criteria that include the preservation of hu manity. The unification of population biology and ecosystems sci ence means going beyond thinking about ecosystems and the biosphere as if they were evolutionary units, maximizing throughput or stability or some other systemic goal. Rather, they exhibit patterns emergent from processes at much lower levels of organization, and it is the maintenance of such pat terns that preserves the goods and services we derive from ecosystems. With the aid of new mathematical approaches and vast new metagenomic data, we have the capacity to study the wide range of ecosystem patterns and processes that characterize the essential features of those systems, and to examine the robustness of those patterns and their role in supporting ecosystem goods and services. I have already mentioned a variety of applications of the approach, from seed dispersal to quorum sensing, from nitrogen fixation to nutrient use. These are all aspects of the biology of ecosystems that involve tradeoffs between individual benefits and the collective good. Other examples abound, including chelation and the production of siderophores, antibiotics and allelochemics. Be fore us lie the broader emergent patterns that fascinated Ram on Margalef: the emergence of trophic webs, species diversity relations and successional dynamics. Chapter 7 of Margalef’s unpublished monograph was con cerned with ecological succession, and the eighth and last chapter was termed “Evolution in the ecosystem.” Near the end of that book, Margalef turns his attention to perhaps the greatest intellectual challenge facing us, understanding cultural evolution, acknowledging the similarities between the mecha nisms that produce cultural and genetic evolution. Exploration of cultural evolution, especially the role of social norms in en forcing cooperation, is the next great challenge in achieving a sustainable future [8]; we need to turn these same methodolo gies to understanding how the social context influences indi vidual behaviors, how that social context emerges from the collective behaviors of large numbers of individuals, and the conditions under which social norms and attitudes can sud denly change. In particular, we need to apply this thinking to address human patterns of consumption, and the achieve ment of cooperation in dealing with global environmental prob lems. By marrying theory and empirical work, we can elucidate the patterns of key macroscopic measures within ecosystems, develop explanations of variation in those patterns, and devel

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op predictive models of responses to changing environments. Beyond that, we need to bridge the gaps across scales, from the ecological to the evolutionary, from the physical and bio logical to the cultural and ethical. Ultimately, only by providing such linkages between the microscopic and the macroscopic can we further the science needed to achieve a sustainable future.

Acknowledgements It is a pleasure to acknowledge the helpful comments of Chris Klausmeier and Carole Levin, and the support of National Science Foundation grant DEB-0434319 and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency grant HR0011-05-1-0057. Professor Simon A. Levin, recipient of the Ramon Mar galef Prize in Ecology 2010, pronounced the lecture enti tled “Evolution at the ecosystem level: On the evolution of ecosystem patterns” at the Scientific Forum “How do evo lutionary processes shape ecosystem patterns and why do ecosystems constrain them?”, on 6 October 2010 in Barcelona.

The Autonomous Government of Catalonia created the Ramon Margalef Prize in Ecology to honor the memory of the Catalan scientist Ramon Margalef (1919–2004), one of the main thinkers and scholars of ecology as a holistic sci ence, and whose contribution was decisive to the creation of modern ecology. This international award recognizes those people around the world who have also made out standing contributions to the development of ecological science. More information: www.gencat.cat/premiramon margalef.

References 1. 2.

3. 4.

Bormann FH, Likens GE (1994) Pattern and Process in a Forested Ecosystem. Springer-Verlag, New York Cullen JJ, Doolittle WF, Levin SA, Li WKW (2007) Pat terns and prediction in microbial oceanography. Ocea nography 20:34-46 Dawkins R (1976) The Selfish Gene. Oxford University Press, New York De Leenheer P, Levin SA, Sontag ED, Klausmeier CA (2006) Global stability in a chemostat with multiple nutri ents. Journal of Mathematical Biology 52:419-438 Dieckmann U, Metz JA (2010) Elements of Adaptive Dy namics. Cambridge Studies in Adaptive Dynamics X. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

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Dobzhansky T (1973) Nothing in biology makes sense ex cept in the light of evolution. The American Biology Teacher 35:125-129 Ehrlich PR (2010) The MAHB, the culture gap, and some really inconvenient truths. PLoS Biology 8(4):e1000330, doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1000330 Ehrlich PR, Levin SA (2005) The evolution of norms. PloS Biology 3(6):0943 - 0948, e194 Ehrlich PR, Ehrlich A, Holdren JP (1977) Population, Re sources, Environment. W.H. Freeman, San Francisco Follows MJ, Dutkiewicz S, Grant S, Chisholm SW (2007) Emergent biogeography of microbial communities in a model ocean. Science 315:1843-1846, doi:10.1126/sci ence.1138544 Geritz SAH, Metz JAJ, Kisdi É, Meszéna G (1997) The dynamics of adaptation and evolutionary branching. Physical Review Letters 78:2024-2027 Hutchinson GE (1965) The Ecological Theater and the Evolutionary Play. Yale University Press, New Haven, CT Hutchinson GE (1961) The paradox of the plankton. American Naturalist 95:137-145 Kirchner JW (1991) The Gaia hypotheses: are they testa ble? Are they useful? In: Scientists on Gaia (eds) Schnei der SH, Boston PJ, 38-46. M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, MA Klausmeier CA, Litchman E, Daufresne T, Levin SA (2004a) Optimal N:P stoichiometry of phytoplankton. Na ture 429:171-174 Klausmeier CA, Litchman E, Levin SA (2004b) Phyto plankton growth and stoichiometry under multiple nutrient limitation. Limnology and Oceanography 49:1463-1470 Lenton TM, Klausmeier CA (2007) Biotic stoichiometric controls on the deep ocean N:P ratio. Biogeosciences 4:353-367 Lenton TM, Watson AJ (2000) Redfield revisited: 1. Reg ulation of nitrate, phosphate and oxygen in the ocean. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 14:225-248 Levin SA (2010) The evolution of ecology. Chronicle of Higher Education LVI.42:B9-11 (August 13) Levin SA, Muller-Landau H (2000a) The evolution of dis persal and seed size in plant communities. Evolutionary Ecology Research 2:409-35 Levin SA, Muller-Landau H (2000b) The emergence of biodiversity in plant communities. Comptes rendus de l’Académie des sciences, Sciences de la vie/ Life Sci ences 323:129-39 Levin SA (1999) Fragile Dominion: Complexity and the Commons. Perseus Books Group, Reading, MA Levin SA (1998) Ecosystems and the biosphere as com plex adaptive systems. Ecosystems 1:431-436 Levin SA (1992) The problem of pattern and scale in ecol ogy. Ecology 73(6):1943-1967 Levin SA (1976) Population dynamic models in heteroge neous environments. Annual Review of Ecology and Sys tematics 7:287-310

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26. Levin SA (1974) Dispersion and population interactions. American Naturalist 108:207-228 27. Lovelock J 2000 (1979) Gaia: A New Look at Life on Earth. Oxford University Press, Oxford, New York 28. Margalef R (1985) The Biosphere in the Making. Unpub lished manuscript. 29. Margalef R (1980) La Biosfera entre la Terminodinámica y el Juego. Ediciones Omega, Barcelona, Spain 30. Margalef R (1968) Perspectives in Ecological Theory. Uni versity of Chicago Press, Chicago 31. Margalef R (1963) On certain unifying principles in ecolo gy. American Naturalist 97 (897):357-374 32. Menge DNL, Levin SA, Hedin LO (2009) Facultative ver sus obligate nitrogen fixation strategies and their ecosys tem consequences. The American Naturalist 4(174):466477 33. Menge DNL, Levin SA, Hedin LO (2008) Evolutionary tradeoffs can select against nitrogen fixation and thereby maintain nitrogen limitation. PNAS 105(5):1573-1578 34. Mooney HA, Dunn EL (1970) Convergent evolution of Mediterranean-climate evergreen sclerophyll shrubs. Ev olution 24:292-303 35. Nadell CD, Xavier J, Levin SA, Foster KR (2008) The evo lution of quorum sensing in bacterial biofilms. PLoS Biol ogy 6(1):171-179 36. National Academy of Sciences (1998) Sustaining Marine Fisheries. National Academy Press, Washington D.C. 37. Odling-Smee FJ, Laland K, Feldman MW (2003) Niche Construction: The Neglected Process in Evolution. Princ eton University Press, Princeton, NJ 38. Redfield AC (1934) On the proportions of organic deriva tions in seawater and their relation to the composition of plankton. In: James Johnstone Memorial Volume (ed) Daniel RJ, 177-192. Liverpool University Press, Liver pool 39. Smith A (1776) Chapter 2: Of the principle which gives occasion to the division of labour. An Inquiry into the Na ture and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Printed for Strahan W and Cadell T, London 40. Sterner RW, Elser JJ (2002) Ecological Stoichiometry: The Biology of Elements from Molecules to the Bio sphere. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ 41. Stiglitz J (2004) The Roaring Nineties: A New History of the World’s Most Prosperous Decade. W.W. Norton & Co., New York, London 42. Tyrrell T (1999) The relative influences of nitrogen and phosphorus on oceanic primary production. Nature 400:525-531 43. Tilman D (1982) Resource Competition and Community Structure. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ 44. Zea-Cabrera E, Iwasa Y, Levin SA, Rodriguez-Iturbe I (2006) Tragedy of the commons in plant water use. Water Resources Research 42, W06D02, doi:10.1029/2005 WR004514

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CONTRIBUTIONS to SCIENCE, 7 (1): 17–20 (2011) Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona DOI: 10.2436/20.7010.01.103 ISSN: 1575-6343 www.cat-science.cat

Fonseca Prize Lecture 2009

Climate change on a live Earth * James E. Lovelock Green Templeton College, University of Oxford, Oxford

Resum. Els líders mundials consideren que les conclusions del Grup Intergovernamental d’Experts sobre el Canvi Climàtic (GIECC) són fiables; tant és així que les prediccions obtingudes s’utilitzen per a formular lleis i polítiques. No obstant això, el GIECC no ha sobreestimat el canvi climàtic, sinó que ha sub estimat la gravetat de l’escalfament global, principalment per què ha prestat massa atenció a les emissions de diòxid de car boni i no la suficient a la resposta de la Terra. Al llarg dels últims quaranta-quatre anys he treballat observant la Terra d’una ma nera diferent, com un sistema dinàmic que regula activament el clima i la composició atmosfèrica per mantenir el planeta habi table. La Terra no accepta passivament l’acció humana. Res pon al canvi climàtic d’una manera molt més mortífera que el petit canvi que estem provocant. La teoria de Gaia sosté que el sistema Terra pot actuar com un amplificador i les petites mo dificacions, ja siguin cap a la calor o al fred, s’intensifiquen, fet que podria ser la causa dels canvis erràtics de temperatura. En aquest article intentaré demostrar que aturar el canvi climàtic pot ser més difícil del que creuen els governs. La nostra tasca, en cas que l’escalfament global continuï, és adaptar-nos a la nova situació i preparar-nos per a sobreviure. Paraules clau: teoria de Gaia ∙ canvi climàtic ∙ escalfament global ∙ Grup Intergovernamental d’Experts sobre el Canvi Climàtic (GIECC) ∙ ciència del sistema terrestre

What happened to global warming? You must be wondering what has happened to global warm ing. The average temperature has barely changed during the last ten years. Does this mean that global warming is no more than a green nightmare and we need no longer feel guilty about our carbon emissions? Sadly, the facts do not justify such a conclusion. If we want a more authoritative account of the cli

* Based on the lecture given by the author at the Auditorium of Galicia, Santiago de Compostela, on 6 October 2009. James E. Lovelock was the recipient of the Fonseca Prize of Scientific Popularization 2009. Correspondence: J.E. Lovelock, Green Templeton College, University of Oxford, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6HG, United Kingdom. Tel. +44-(0)1865274770. Fax + 44-(0)1865274796. E-mail: jesjl@daisyworld.org

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Summary. The findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli mate Change (IPCC) are taken by world leaders as authorita tive, so much so that their predictions are used to frame legisla tion and policy. However, the IPCC has not overestimated climate change, they have, instead, underestimated the sever ity of global heating mainly because they paid too much atten tion to our emissions of carbon dioxide and not enough to the Earth’s response. For the past 44 years I have worked on a dif ferent way of looking at the Earth, seeing it as a dynamic sys tem that actively regulates the climate and the atmospheric composition to keep the planet habitable. The Earth does not passively accept what we do to it. It responds to climate change and that response is far more deadly than the small change that we are making. Gaia theory teaches that the Earth system can act as an amplifier and small changes either to heat or cold are intensified and this could be the cause of the erratic shifts of temperature. In this article I will try to show that stop ping climate change may be more difficult than our govern ments believe. Our task, should global heating continue, is to adapt and prepare to survive. Keywords: Gaia theory ∙ climate change ∙ global warming ∙ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ∙ Earth System Science

mate we still must turn to the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli mate Change, the IPCC. It is made up from over 1000 of the world best climate scien tists and importantly they regard climate change as real, and potentially deadly. Their findings are taken by world leaders as authoritative, so much so that their predictions are used to frame legislation and policy looking 40 or more years into the future. European governments argue for massive and expen sive action now if we are to avoid damaging climate change. Governments worldwide seem to assume that merely reducing carbon emissions will stabilize or even reverse climate change. In this article, which is about the Earth and its climate, I will try to show that stopping climate change may be more difficult than our governments believe. The IPCC has not overestimated climate change, they have, instead, underestimated the severity of global heating mainly

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Fig. 1. Comparison between measured median sea level change and IPCC forecast (1993–2005).

century? The simple answer is that we can’t. Figure 1, for ex ample, shows a comparison between the measured sea level of the past two decades and what the IPCC forecast.

Sea level: Earth’s own thermometer If you really want to take the temperature of the Earth and see if its complaint of global heat is real, ignore air and land surface temperatures, these fluctuate from year to year and place to place. Look instead at the Earth’s own thermometer, the level of the sea. There are only two important causes of sea level rise. The expansion of the ocean as its temperature rises and the addition of water as ice on the land melts. Because the oceans are confluent over the surface, the sea level is repre sentative for the whole ocean and is a realistic Earth thermom eter. More than 70% of the Earth’s surface is ocean and it is on average about 4 kilometres deep. The capacity to hold warmth of this large mass of water is about 800 times greater than that of the atmosphere. So long as the sea level keeps rising global heating is happening (Fig. 2).

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because they paid too much attention to our emissions of car bon dioxide and not enough to the Earth’s response. The Earth does not passively accept what we do to it. It responds to cli mate change and that response is far more deadly than the small change that we are making. Because the Earth’s re sponses are happening in the deserts, the forests, in the ocean, and at the poles—all far away from the cities—we do not notice them. But to me they bring an apocalyptic view of the future because I see 7 to 8 billion of humans faced with ever diminishing supplies of food and water in an increasingly intol erable climate. You may well ask how we scientists have let this potentially disastrous future steal up on us unaware. There are three main reasons. First was our success in solving the problem of strat ospheric ozone depletion. This gave atmospheric scientists false confidence in their ability to deal with the far greater and more complex danger of global heating. Second is the division of Science into almost unconnected specialities. Climate sci ence is almost wholly about atmospheric physics and chemis try and ecological science is almost entirely about the biology of living organisms. Neither of these groups of scientists is yet ready to embrace Gaia theory which offers a unified Earth sci ence. Unfortunately for us the Earth is not so divided and so long as we treat it as two separate entities, the geosphere for the material Earth and the biosphere for life, we will fail to un derstand our planet. The third reason for science to have been wrong footed is the old division between theory and practice. The ever growing power of computers has made it easier to build apparently real istic theoretical simulations of our planet, and its climate. It be comes too tempting to believe that the computer model is the real world and that the hard down to earth effort of gathering data on the polar glaciers or in the tropical forests is less needed. We should have been warned. The first inexcusable error occurred when it was realised that ozone in the stratosphere was in danger of destruction by the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) we used in our spray cans and refrigerators. In the 1980s theo rists and modellers of stratospheric ozone depletion were so sure that their models were true that they ignored data about CFC abundance in the atmosphere. I know this because I was one of the few scientists who were making the measurements. They also ignored data about ozone in the stratosphere. Earth orbiting satellites first saw that ozone was being destroyed over the South Pole but this was not predicted by theory or models. The theorists were so sure that they were right that they in structed the satellites to ignore low values of ozone and several years passed before we realised that ozone was being de stroyed. It was not until two scientists at an Antarctic base looked up into the sky with a simple spectrometer that the hole in the ozone layer was seen and only then did we realise how serious ozone depletion was. Now another deadly hole has ap peared, this time in the floating ice of the Arctic Ocean, and much sooner than the models forecast. Yet again the theorists are failing to forecast what is actually happening in the real world. The lesson has not been learnt. If the climate models are unreliable how can we be sure about the climate of ten years from now still less the end of the

Lovelock

Year Fig. 2. Northern hemisphere sea ice anomaly. Anomaly from 1978– 2000 mean.

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Climate change on a live Earth

Contrib. Sci. 7 (1), 2011 19

The extra heat absorbed by dark ocean water as the floating ice melts is causing an acceleration of system driven heating whose total will soon or already be greater than that from all of the pollution CO2 that we have so far added. If it continues there will soon be an outburst of methane and other green house gases from the melting arctic permafrost. The Earth is not merely responding, it is now driving global heating.

wise, competent and principled. So what made them persist with what may be the wrong kind of climate model and let their forecasts be used to frame policy? One answer may be that they had no option. Having persuaded governments that large expensive modelling centres, the battleships of the climate war, were needed. They just had to sail in them and hope for the best.

Gaia theory and climate history

So what is the prognosis?

For the past 44 years I have worked on a different way of look ing at the Earth, seeing it as a dynamic system that actively regulates the climate and the atmospheric composition to keep the planet habitable. This is Gaia theory. It is now accepted as mainstream science and often called Earth System science; but although accepted in principle there has not yet been time to include the theory in the separated Life and Earth sciences which still continue to view the Earth from within either Life or Earth science. Gaia theory fits better with the climate history of the Earth than does conventional science. The historical record suggests that the Earth has at least two stable climate states, one about 6 degrees hotter than now and one about 5 degrees colder than now. Geologists call these two states, the greenhouse and the icehouse. If we look back to climate history about 14,000 years ago we see from Greenland ice core records how the real climate moves from one state to another (Fig. 3). This irregular course of the world’s temperature is very dif ferent from the smooth curves of the IPCC’s models. Gaia the ory teaches that the Earth system can act as an amplifier and small changes either to heat or cold are intensified and this could be the cause of the erratic shifts of temperature. I find it extraordinary that climate scientists could have put their names to predictions as far away as the end of the century and in the face of such great uncertainties. I know scientists of the IPCC and some are personal friends. I know that they are

If we assume that the IPCC is more or less right about the next thirty years then they forecast a torrid world by 2040 with an average summer in north temperate regions as hot as the sum mer of 2003 in Europe when over 30,000 died from heat. By then we may cool ourselves with air conditioning and learn to live in a climate no worse than that of Bagdad now. But without extensive irrigation the plants will die and both farming and nat ural ecosystems will be replaced by scrub and desert. What will there be to eat? The same dire changes could affect the rest of the world and I can envisage Americans migrating into Canada and the Chinese to Africa or Siberia. But will there be enough food for them all? Much of Europe will be arid desert land that will depend on Northern Europe and islands like the UK and Ireland for food. Heat alone will not be the main problem. What will be is too much or too little water from catastrophic floods or prolonged drought. That is what the IPCC forecasts. Earth history and Gaia the ory both suggest that climate change can be faster and more severe and can fluctuate between hot and cool before making its final move to the stable state, about 5 degrees hotter than now. As the hot state is approached stopping emissions will make little difference to the dire course of events and could even make matters worse. Because we are uncertain about the climate future we can only guess at geographic and demo graphic change. What can be said is that the north temperate and arctic regions that include Canada and Siberia will be fa voured. So will oceanic strips along the continents like here in Galicia and places such as the British Isles, and New Zealand. Many tropical islands may also be habitable and on the conti nents there will be oasis areas and habitable land along rivers. The most vulnerable nations are those of the Indian subcon tinent and China. The Indian group of nations will suffer both inundation and drought. A great loss of life seems almost inevi table. China is not in a much more favourable position than In dia and Pakistan. In these nations and mainland Europe, popu lation excess is at least as large a factor as climate change. Some of the nations less vulnerable to climate change are un fortunately densely populated but will increasingly become the destination for refugees. The large and agonizing problem will be restricting population to the number that can be fed other wise starvation will achieve the same result. Governments should not assume that their remedies for glo bal heating—carbon capture and storage, renewable energy and biofuel—will halt or even slow global heating, they are all profitable but that is not enough. The fact that the Earth now has five or more sub-systems each adding its own heat sug

Temperature variation (ºC)

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Earth age (thousands of years before present) Fig. 3. Global mean temperature.

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gests that we are committed to move to a hotter state. Our task, should global heating continue, is to adapt and prepare to survive and this alone may be an exhausting task. Gaia has survived far worse insults than industrialised humans and will almost certainly save itself, we are the ones in danger, not the Earth. We are a tough species and have survived seven major cli mate crises in the past million years—by this I mean the violent move from ice age to interglacial. These we now know hap pened about every 140,000 years, but the number of survivors may have been as low as 2000 after one of these catastro phes. We won’t be made extinct by global heating but we may be cut back to a billion or less. We have to survive global heat ing and hope that the stresses it imposes will encourage the natural selection of a more capable form of human. We truly have to concentrate on saving ourselves; it is hubris to think that we can ‘save the planet.’ Perhaps the saddest thing is that if we fail and humans go extinct, The Earth will lose as much or more than we do. Not only will wildlife and whole ecosystems vanish, but in human civilization the planet has a precious resource. We are not merely a disease; we are through our intelligence and commu nication the planetary equivalent of a nervous system. We should not feel guilty; in the Earth’s history there have been other organisms that in their early development wreaked havoc yet in time became vital components of Gaia. Photosynthesis ers that released oxygen must have been far worse polluters than we are. Yet over the years life adapted and then made use of this reactive gas to empower animal life and us. Gaia has had to wait 3.5 billion years for natural selection to choose an intelligent partly social animal species. The photo synthesisers had to wait a long time before they became trees and so we humans have to be patient while evolution selects us to become an integrated part of an intelligent planet, but what a future for humans that would be.

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Lovelock

Professor James E. Lovelock, author of Gaia theory and recipient of the Fonseca Prize of Scientific Popularization 2009, pronounced the lecture entitled “Climate change on a live Earth” for the award ceremony, on 6 October 2009 in Santiago de Compostela.

The Consortium of Santiago and the University of Santia go de Compostela, aware of the importance of the trans fer of knowledge and society’s science education needs, agreed in 2006 to create the ConCiencia Programme to invite the greatest intellects of the international scientific community to transmit their ideas in a city which is a sym bol of culture and knowledge. Under the auspices of the ConCiencia Programme, the Fonseca Prize for Scientific Popularization was created with the aim of promoting the transfer of knowledge to the society. The award recogniz es those individuals who have had a distinguished career in the field of scientific communication or are a public ref erence in stimulating and promoting the general interest in scientific and technical knowledge. Other recipients of this award have been Professor Stephen W. Hawking (2008), Sir David Attenborough (2010) and Sir Roger Penrose (2011). More information: www.usc.es/conciencia.

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CONTRIBUTIONS to SCIENCE, 7 (1): 21–25 (2011) Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona DOI: 10.2436/20.7010.01.104 ISSN: 1575-6343 www.cat-science.cat

focus

Celebration of Earth Day at the Institute for Catalan Studies, 2009

Natural archives, changing climates * Raymond S. Bradley Climate System Research Center, Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst

Resum. De canvis climàtics n’hi ha hagut al llarg de tota la història de la humanitat, però els mesuraments instrumentals no ofereixen una perspectiva gaire àmplia sobre les variaci ons del clima. En moltes regions, els registres instrumentals només es remunten a un segle o dos. Per a entendre la vari abilitat del sistema climàtic a més llarg termini, comptem amb els arxius naturals —sediments, casquets glacials, tor beres, dipòsits en coves, bandes de corall i anells dels ar bres—, en els quals s’ha conservat un registre dels canvis climàtics passats. Aquests arxius són una valuosa mina d’in formació per a la història climàtica i ambiental del planeta i proporcionen informació sobre els factors que poden haver fet canviar el clima, com ara grans erupcions volcàniques ex plosives, canvis en la irradiància solar i efectes en l’atmosfera produïts pels humans. Els arxius paleoclimàtics mostren que la Terra ha experimentat situacions molt diferents de les d’avui, fins i tot en el passat recent, i ens proporcionen un marc de referència per a avaluar la magnitud dels canvis fu turs que és probable que s’esdevinguin a mesura que els gasos d’efecte d’hivernacle es vagin acumulant a l’atmosfe ra. En el passat hi ha hagut societats que s’han ensorrat a causa de canvis climàtics bruscos i inesperats, i les proves paleoclimàtiques demostren que som vulnerables als canvis ràpids en els patrons climàtics. Malauradament, molts dels arxius naturals que ofereixen aquesta perspectiva exclusiva sobre el clima del passat estan avui amenaçats per les activi tats humanes, i els mateixos canvis climàtics que intentem entendre.

Abstract. Climatic changes have occurred throughout human history, but instrumental measurements do not provide us with a very long perspective on climate variations. In many regions, instrumental records only extend back a century or two. To understand the longer-term variability of the climate system, we rely on natural archives— sediments, ice caps, peat bogs, cave deposits, banded corals and tree rings—in which a record of past changes in climate has been preserved. They are a treasure trove of the climatic and environmental history of the planet and provide information about factors that may have caused the climate to change, such as major explosive vol canic eruptions, changes in solar irradiance and human effects on the atmosphere. Paleoclimate archives show that the world has experienced very different conditions from today, even in the recent past, and they provide a framework for us to assess the magnitude of future changes that we are likely to experi ence as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the at mosphere. Societies in the past have been disrupted by abrupt and unexpected climate changes, and the paleoclimatic evi dence demonstrates our vulnerability to rapid shifts in climatic patterns. Unfortunately, many of the natural archives that pro vide this unique perspective on past climate are now under threat by human activities, and the very climatic changes that we seek to understand. Keywords: paleoclimatology ∙ natural archives ∙ ice cores ∙ tree rings ∙ stalagmites ∙ lake sediments ∙ archeological remains ∙ societal effects

Paraules clau: paleoclimatologia ∙ arxius naturals ∙ nuclis de gel ∙ anells dels arbres ∙ estalagmites ∙ sediments lacustres ∙ restes arqueològiques ∙ efectes socials

* Based on the lecture given by the author at the Institute for Catalan Studies, Barcelona, on 29 April 2009 for the celebration of Earth Day at the IEC (1a Jornada de Sostenibilitat i Canvi Climàtic). Correspondence: R.S. Bradley, Climate System Research Center, Dept. of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA. Tel. +1-4135452120. Fax +1-4135451200. E-mail: rbra dley@geo.umass.edu

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Bradley

Almost everything we know about climate has come from sci entific instruments that were developed in the late 17th and 18th centuries. The very first information about the environment came from the use of barometers, rain gauges and thermome ters. Figure 1 shows an example of these instruments, a ther mometer made for Linnaeus which he used in his gardens to understand and to measure temperature with the Celsius scale. Celsius’ original scale went from 100°, which was the freezing point, to 0°, which was the boiling point, and Linnaeus changed it around. This particular instrument would have cost the equiv alent to 600 or 700 Euros today; they were very expensive, very specialized instruments and so there were not many available. The first temperature records for Europe date from the 18th century whereas in most of North America we do not have records until the 19th century. If we go to the Arctic or Antarctic, we have only maybe 50 years of records. So our perspective on climate change is very, very limited. Similarly, in desert areas and most of Africa we do not have much more than 100 or 150 years of instrumental records. The data are even worse for oceans, which of course make up 70% of the planet. Most of the measurements between 1750 and 1850 were made over the trading routes, so that almost nothing is known about the Pacific, which includes almost half of the world’s oceans. Consequently, when we want to look at global change and global warming and then combine this information, we cannot go back very much further than 1850, simply because we do not have the information. Figure 2A shows individual years of tem perature, as a departure or anomaly from the average, from 1850 to 2008. You can see the rise in temperature over the last 100 years, not a constant but a generally steady rise, and then an ac celeration in temperature over the last 50 years or so. Figure 2B shows the record of CO2 over the same interval of time, and it is also steadily rising: measurements now are almost 385–390 ppm by volume and this is paralleled by other greenhouse gas increas es. There is now a lot of evidence that links this rise in tempera ture with the rise in greenhouse gases. There are many accumu lated lines of evidence, not just for global temperature, but in the overall signature of temperature: seasonal changes, latitudinal

changes, changes with elevation in the atmosphere. These pro vide a fingerprint, a set of clues, rather like when a crime has been committed. You can see the evidence all around the globe and it fits with the culprit, and the culprit is greenhouse gases. Now the question is, how unusual is this? Is this simply something that happens every 100 years, or every 1000 years? Because of our limited perspective, how can we know how common is this kind of change? And is there a way to figure out how temperatures changed before this 150 year period? How do we know what we know about the change in the Earth’s climate over time? The answer is: we have to rely on the natural archives of past climate. And the study of these archives is paleoclimatology. Tree rings, sediments—sometimes laminat ed—from lakes and oceans, ice from high latitudes and high altitudes, stalagmites—which provide records of the rainfall that fell on the site—as well as early historic records of archeo logical information are some examples of natural archives; nat ural phenomena which in some way have captured in their structure a measure of past climate. We call them climate prox ies, as they are a measure of climate, and the job of the paleo climatologist is to decipher the information in these archives. Figure 3 is an ice core that has just been drilled. The ice is extruded from a core barrel—either thermal or electromechani cal—then logged, slid into tubes, and packed into insulated boxes for frozen transport. This particular ice core extends back about 2500 years; it is quite a short ice core, only about 100 m in length. But in Antarctica, the ice cores extend back almost a million years and they go down approximately 4 km, almost to the base of the ice sheet. As snow accumulates on the surface and becomes buried by more snow on top, it is compressed and transformed into solid ice. Inside the ice we find bubbles of gas, which are samples of the atmosphere at the time the snow was formed. And so, if we drill through the ice sheet or the ice cap we can extract the bubbles of gas and

Fig. 1. Thermometer made for Linnaeus in the workshop of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences by Johan Gustav Hasselström at the end of the 1770s. Source: Linnaeus Museum, Uppsala.

Fig. 2. (A) Temperature as a departure or anomaly from the average, from 1850 to 2008. (B) Ice core record of CO2 over the same interval of time.

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Natural archives, changing climates

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Fig. 3. Ice core that was drilled (in 2003) through the Quelccaya Ice Cap in Peru (5680 m) all the way to the base (Photo by Lonnie G. Thompson).

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to sulfur dioxide and then to sulfuric acid, with an overall sur face-cooling effect. The ice core records of volcanic sulfate also show peaks of sulfur representing the volcanic eruptions, and we know that the Little Ice Age was driven to a large extent by the high frequency of these explosive volcanic eruptions. But if we want to step back many thousands of years, to the period since the last ice age, the Holocene, we have to look at other natural archives. Diatoms are sensitive to and character istic of water temperatures; therefore, by looking at the types of diatoms, such as those found in sediments off the coast of Norway, you can identify what the water was like over the last 13,000 years. The isotopes of oxygen in the calcium carbonate of stalagmites found in caves in China reflect the monsoon

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measure the history of the atmosphere and the composition of the atmosphere. As shown in Fig. 4, from 1000 years ago to the present, CO2 levels varied very little and methane, nitrous oxide and sulfate were almost constant. And then, towards the 18th century, we see a change in the slope. Why? Because James Watt, a Scottish engineer developed the steam engine, which required coal, and his success in doing so marked the beginning of the industrial revolution. Coal is an organic mate rial, made of plants that extracted CO2 from the atmosphere millions of years ago, were subjected to intense compression, and gradually transformed into geological material. When we burn coal, we are returning that CO2 to the atmosphere. In the 19th century, Daimler and Benz patented the internal combus tion engine and the emphasis switched from coal to petrole um—to oil—and the same thing happened. The demand for fossil fuels expanded, such that the CO2 levels increased al most linearly. Similarly, the levels of methane, which is related to irrigation and animal husbandry, and nitrous oxide, which is related to fertilizers and agriculture, also increased. The last line is world population and it is what really is driving these chang es. We can be fairly certain that as the world population in creases, from 6.5 billion today to 9 billion in the future, the de mand for energy will escalate in parallel and CO2 levels will continue rising unless we control the use of carbon fuels. With out the natural archive, the ice core in this case, we would not have any real idea whether the CO2 levels we are currently ex periencing are unusual at all. From the records in Antarctica, which extend back over 800,000 years—well before Homo sapiens were on the planet—we know that CO2 levels have never risen above 300 ppm. And now, in a very short period of time, we have driven CO2 levels to ~390 ppm. Now let us look at some other natural archives. Among the other tools we can use are tree rings from trees that are stressed and barely able to survive, such as those found in high moun tains and high altitudes. Being at their extreme limit of growth, they are very sensitive to climate changes, in this case to varia tions in temperature at high latitudes, and this sensitivity in re corded as variations in the width of their rings, which can some times be almost microscopic in size. A narrow sample of wood is extracted with an auger and the width of the rings is com pared to the temperature measures of thermometers from the past 150 years to produce an equation that converts the width of the tree rings to temperature. By taking samples from all the way around the northern limit, from trees in Alaska, Canada, northern Scandinavia and the Ural Mountains in Russia and Si beria, we can go back some 600 years in time and see intervals when it was much warmer, such as in Medieval time, but also colder intervals, such as the Little Ice Age which was particularly cold between 1550 and 1850. But natural archives tell us not just how climate changed in the past, but also why it did. By looking at the tree rings of individual years when it was extremely cold, we see that they correlate with large explosive volcanic eruptions during the past 600 years: 1601 in Peru, 1783 in Iceland, 1816 in Indonesia and 1912 in Alaska. Trees at high latitudes were affected by explosive eruptions all over the world because the incoming solar radiation was reduced by the cloud of material and by the expelled sulfur, which was oxidized

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Paleoclimate, Global Change and the Future Alverson, Bradley and Pederson eds., 2002 Chapter 2: D. Raynaud et al., fig. 2.6, p. 29

Fig. 4. Anthropogenic increase: records of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and sulfate over the last millennium [1].

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strength over the last 9000 years, with a stronger monsoon between 6000 and 8000 years ago. Lake sediments from Afri ca also show that it was a much wetter time in Africa between 6000 and 9000 years ago because monsoon rains extended further into the Sahara desert. Archeological remains from peo ple who lived there, together with the bones of crocodiles and hippos can be found at the Gobero site in Niger, indicating that freshwater must have been present, yet today this is one of the most arid places on Earth. From these three sets of records we know that in the early Holocene it was warmer at the higher latitudes in the summer; monsoon rains were stronger and they penetrated further inland. However, it turns out that these conditions had nothing to do with human activity; they were due to a natural change in which the Earth was oriented towards the sun. Periodic changes in the Earth’s rotation, tilt and orientation, called the Milankovitch cy cles, influence how sunlight is distributed across the Earth’s sur face. Today, we are closest to the sun in the northern hemi sphere winter, but if you go back 7000 to 10,000 years we were closest to the sun in the northern hemispheric summer. The re sult was that continents were warmer in the early Holocene, more warm moist air was drawn to the continental interior, lead ing to a stronger monsoon in China, wetter conditions in Africa, and warmer air reaching far into the north Atlantic. This is an ex ample in which we know that climate was very different not so long ago, and it had direct effects on people—they were able to live in places they cannot live today—but it was due to natural factors, not to human activity. However, we can perhaps learn something about the overall environmental changes that oc curred during that period, because we know that at the time the North Atlantic was warmer, and today it is also becoming warm er for totally different reasons, because of greenhouse gases. Paleoclimate records also provide evidence for regional cli matic (mainly hydrological) anomalies. These were sometimes abrupt and unexpected, unprecedented and persistent, and had severe societal consequences that led to societal upheav al, abandonment, migration and the rise of new ‘management’ (whether it was change in religion statuses, dynasties, etc.). An example is the disappearance of the native Indians who lived in what is now the Mesa Verde National Park area, in southern Colorado and Utah. In the Arabian Peninsula, we see that the biggest period of drought in the last 2600 years was in 540 A.D., which was of course the time of Mohammed but also the time of the plague of Justinian and many social disruptions in that part of the world. Might this persistent, unusual, and un precedented drought have led to social disruption, driving peo ple to look for a new direction or leadership? Perhaps. During the same interval, in 540 A.D., something unusual happened on the other side of the world. The tissues of tree rings in Mongolia were destroyed by the cold conditions in the middle of the growing season. There is little evidence for major volcanic eruptions (no sulfate is found on the ice caps); instead, it has been suggested that the near passage of a comet creat ed a cloud that reduced solar radiation, monsoon heating, and lowered the rainfall at the time. We are faced with an example in which something happened that had direct societal effects but we do not yet understand why; and if we do not under

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stand why it happened in the past, we cannot know if it might happen again in the future. We often look at our cultural treasures and we preserve them, value them, we put them in museums and visit them, and we recognize their value for our society and our culture. But there are also treasures of our natural history. If we com pare the ice cap in Kilimanjaro in 1930 and 2005 (Fig. 5), we can see it is almost gone. There were over 12 km2 of ice at the beginning of the century in Kilimanjaro; today there are less than 2 km2 [2]. The unique environmental history that was in that icecap has now disappeared, and so we do not have that record of how climate changed in Africa because it melted away, by our very effects on the planet’s climate. Many important natural archives that provide this unique per spective on past climate are now under threat by human activi ties, disappearing before we have the opportunity to sample them and study the history of past environmental conditions that they contain. There is an urgent need to recover these ar chives before they are lost forever. Natural archives enable us to understand how climates have changed and, more importantly in many cases, why; they allow us to distinguish anthropogenic changes from those due to natural factors; they inform us of the societal effects of abrupt climate changes in the past and may provide insight into the environmental consequences of the fu ture. Understanding why the changes in climate have occurred provides rich opportunities for future research, and for making contributions to the on-going debate about climate change and the implications for national and international policies.

Fig. 5. Kilimanjaro ice cap in (A) 1930 and (B) the year 2005.

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References 1.

Raynaud D, Blunier T, Ono Y, Delmas RJ (2003) The late Quaternary history of atmospheric trace gases and aero sols: Interactions between climate and biogeochemical cycles. In: Alverson KD, Bradley RS, Pedersen TF (eds)

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Paleoclimate, global change and the future. Springer Ver lag, Berlin, New York, 235 pp. Thompson LG, Mosley-Thompson E, Davis ME, et al. (2002) Kilimanjaro Ice Core Records: Evidence of Holocene Climate in Tropical Africa. Science 298:589-593

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CONTRIBUTIONS to SCIENCE, 7 (1): 27–35 (2011) Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona DOI: 10.2436/20.7010.01.105 ISSN: 1575-6343 www.cat-science.cat

Celebration of Earth Day at the Institute for Catalan Studies, 2009

Can we be confident with climate models? * Josep Enric Llebot 1, 2 1. Department of Physics, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Bellaterra 2. Science and Technology Section, Institute for Catalan Studies, Barcelona

Resum. L’escalfament global, el canvi climàtic i els gasos d’efec te hivernacle són termes coneguts pel públic en general, ja que es mencionen freqüentment en els mitjans de comunicació, encara que sovint en un context incorrecte. Les percepcions actuals i les percepcions errònies sobre aquests termes es dis cuteixen en la primera part d’aquest treball. L’article continua amb una explicació sobre el funcionament dels models climà tics i els punts forts i febles que presenten. L’anàlisi conclou amb un breu resum d’altres aspectes importants referents a la ciència del canvi climàtic. Paraules clau: Models climàtics ∙ sistema climàtic ∙ canvi climàtic antropogènic ∙ Grup Intergovernamental d’Experts sobre el Canvi Climàtic (GIECC)

Climate change as perceived by the general public The public’s knowledge of climate change ranges from the most basic level, with the recognition of phrases such as ‘glo bal warming’ and ‘greenhouse gases,’ to an understanding of the simple causal relationships, personal contributions, times cales, and the detailed inter-relationships of natural processes. Overall, the current representation of climate change in the me dia, especially in the developed world, suggests that general awareness of the concept of climate change among the popu lation has reached the near-saturation point. In fact, according to a survey carried out among 41 newspapers published in English all over the world, in the year 2006 almost 10,000 arti cles on climate change were published, compared with the ~5000 published in 2004. This increase in information has im proved public recognition of the problem of global warming, its implications, and its causes. It has even become a marketing strategy for products ranging from clothing to oil and gasoline.

* Based on the lecture given by the author at the Institute for Catalan Studies, Barcelona, on 29 April 2009 for the celebration of Earth Day at the IEC (1a Jornada de Sostenibilitat i Canvi Climàtic). Correspondence: J.E. Llebot, Secretaria de Medi Ambient i Sostenibili tat, Departament de Territori i Sostenibilitat, Av. Diagonal 523-525, E-08029 Barcelona, Catalonia, EU. Tel. +34-934445000. Fax +34934198709. E-mail: enric.llebot@uab.cat

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Abstract. Global warming, climate change, and greenhouse gases are terms familiar to the general public due to their fre quent mention in the media, albeit often in an incorrect context. Current perceptions and misperceptions regarding these terms are discussed in the first part of this paper. This is followed by an explanation of how climate models work and the strengths and weaknesses of these models. The review concludes with a brief summary of several other important aspects of climate change science. Keywords: Climate models ∙ climate system ∙ anthropogenic climate change ∙ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

But has the media’s representation of climate change re sulted in a better understanding of its causes and implications? A study published by the Department of Transport of the British Government [3] came to the following conclusions, which probably can be extrapolated to citizens of most of the devel oped countries: • The vast majority of the public claim to believe that climate change is happening and around two-thirds are con vinced that it is linked to human activity. They are, how ever, unclear about the details. • Many people are well informed about some of the causes of climate change and the evidence suggests that knowl edge is improving. Indeed, most people have a quite de tailed, although often inconsistent, knowledge of the is sue. For instance, the majority are able to identify the destruction of forests and the burning of fossil fuels as contributors to global warming, but at the same time not everybody recognizes the role played by power plant emissions, although quite a few are aware of the contribu tion of home use of gas and electricity. However, the prevalence of common misconceptions (such as the be lief that the hole in the ozone layer is a cause) points to the varying degrees of uncertainty about the causes of cli mate change. • Overall, it is not possible to conclude that people generally believe that climate change is caused only by large-scale

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phenomena, but there does appear to be a disconnection between the recognition of primary contributors (e.g., fos sil fuels) and the use of these fuels (e.g., in power stations or in the home). • People more readily recognize the link between climate change and the use of fossil fuels for transportation than with their use in the home. • Public concern regarding climate change is generally high. • Although climate change generates concern, it is not the most critical issue. Public concern for climate change ap pears to be tempered by uncertainty about where and when it will occur, the extent of the change, and by com petition from other issues of individual concern. • The majority of citizens do not regard climate change as an immediate threat to themselves but rather to future generations and ‘faraway places.’ This is important, as evidence suggests that awareness of the environmental impact of human activities and feelings of personal obliga tion may be insufficient without concerns for the future. Nevertheless, an increasing numbers of people believe that the threat is more immediate and indeed may already be materializing. • Although there are indications that people acknowledge their own contribution to climate change and their respon sibility in its mitigation, responsibility for action is more likely to be relegated to regional, national, and global insti tutions. Even the majority of those already making chang es in their behavior with respect to climate change believe that their own efforts make little difference. In the author’s opinion, people’s awareness of global warm ing will emerge based on a concern about the future impact of climate change and on the technical tools that they have to as sess impacts as projected in climate models. While currently there is a great deal of confidence about the projections of models describing global changes of climate, there are a pau city of models assessing the magnitude and time scale of local impacts. For this reason, climate change is considered as a distant reality. In the following sections, I describe what is meant by ‘the climate system’, present some of the recent cli mate models, and examine the capabilities of these models and our level of confidence about their projections. This review concludes with comments about the outlook for the future re garding the science and politics of climate change.

The climate system The key to understanding global climate change is first to un derstand what global climate is and how it operates. At the planetary scale, global climate is regulated by how much ener gy the Earth receives from the sun. However, global climate is also affected by other energy flows that take place within the climate system itself. These include the atmosphere, the oceans, the cryosphere (ice sheets), the biosphere (living or ganisms and the soils), and the geosphere (sediments and

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rocks), all of which, to a greater or lesser extent, affect the con tent and the movement of heat around the Earth’s surface. The atmosphere is a mixture of different gases and aerosols (suspended liquid and solid particles) and plays a crucial role in regulating the Earth’s climate. Air consists mostly of nitrogen (78%) and oxygen (21%). The so-called greenhouse gases, de spite their relative scarcity, have a dramatic effect on the amount of energy stored within the atmosphere and conse quently on the Earth’s climate. Greenhouse gases trap longwave radiation within the lower atmosphere and in turn emit this radiation onto the Earth’s surface and into space, thus making the atmosphere and the surface of the Earth hotter. This heat trapping is a natural process, called the greenhouse effect, and it keeps the Earth about 33°C warmer than it would be otherwise. The atmosphere, however, does not operate as an isolated system. The balance of radiation at the Earth’s surface de pends on the latitude: being positive at lower latitudes and negative at higher latitudes. Therefore, energy flows take place through atmospheric and ocean currents but also between the atmosphere and other parts of the climate system, most sig nificantly the world’s oceans. For example, ocean currents move heat from warm equatorial latitudes to colder polar lati tudes. Another non-radiative component of the Earth’s ener getic balance is the heat transferred by moisture. Water evapo rating from the surface of the oceans stores heat, which is subsequently released when water vapor condenses to form clouds and rain. The significance of the oceans is that they store a much greater quantity of heat than the atmosphere. The top 100 m of the world’s oceans store much more energy than the entire atmosphere. Accordingly, flows of energy be tween the oceans and the atmosphere can have important ef fects on the global climate. The world’s ice sheets, glaciers, and sea ice, collectively known as the cryosphere, have a significant impact on the Earth’s climate. The cryosphere is made up of Antarctica, Arc tic Ocean, Greenland, Northern Canada, Northern Siberia and most of the high mountain ranges throughout the world, where sub-zero temperatures persist throughout the year. Snow and ice reflect a large quantity of sunlight instead of absorbing it and thus are very important for the global albedo [1] of Earth. Without the cryosphere, more energy would be absorbed at the Earth’s surface than reflected; consequently, the tempera ture of the atmosphere would be much higher. All land plants synthesize energy from the photosynthesis of carbon dioxide and water in the presence of sunlight. Through this utilization of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, plants have the ability to regulate the global climate. In the oceans, micro scopic plankton process the carbon dioxide dissolved in sea water to carry out photosynthesis and to manufacture their tiny carbonate shells. The oceans replace the utilized carbon diox ide by drawing it down from the atmosphere. When the plank ton die, their carbonate shells sink to the seafloor, effectively locking away the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This “biological pump” reduces by at least four-fold the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, thereby reducing the Earth’s surface temperature.

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Can we be confident with climate models?

The processes that link climate subsystems do not work along the same time scale—some are very fast while others are slow—such that their influence on the behavior of variables that determine the weather differs. Fast interactions characterize meteorology whereas slow ones are important for climate. But what is commonly understood as climate? In colloquial terms, it can be said that climate is the weather at some location aver aged over long periods of time (>30 years), or the average pat tern of weather variation at a certain location. Descriptions of regional climates are based on variables such as seasonal tem perature or wind strength, the amount of rain or snowstorms and their intensity, and the severity of droughts.

What is a climate model? A climate model is an attempt at reproducing climate or fore casting climatic conditions at a particular location or region or for the whole planet by means of simulations that take into ac count how climate works or by analyzing its regularities using statistical procedures. Climate models attempt to simulate cli mate behavior and thus to provide us with an understanding of the key physical, chemical, and biological processes that gov ern it. They give us a better understanding of the climate sys tem, including past climates based on comparisons with records of instrumental and paleoclimatic observations. Cli mate models also help us to test our theories of many climaterelevant processes and to make predictions about climate in the future. They can be used to simulate climate on a wide range of geographical scales and over different lengths of time. The basic laws and other relationships necessary to model cli mate are expressed as a series of mathematical equations. There are also statistical models of climate that, simply stat ed, seek to determine whether there is a relationship between certain observations. For example, the repeated occurrence of certain climate patterns may serve in the construction of sea sonal climate forecasts (as in agricultural almanacs, for exam ple). In other cases, the relationship between a change of tem perature with time may be described by a linear regression line, or the seasonal cycle by a sinusoidal fit. More complicated rela tionships are also possible. These statistical models are very efficient at encapsulating existing information concisely and, assuming that things do not change much, they can provide reasonable predictions of future climate behavior. However, they are of little predictive value if the underlying system is sub ject to changes that might affect the interactions among the original variables. Biophysics-based climate models, by contrast, try to cap ture the true physical causes of climate-related phenomena and therefore to incorporate the fundamental biological and chemical processes affecting the climate system. Since those processes, per definition, are not likely to change in the future, the likelihood of a successful prediction is greater. Climate models are essentially physics-based, but some of the smallscale components are only known empirically (for instance, the increase in evaporation as the wind strength increases). Thus, while statistical fits to the observed data are included within

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climate model formulations, they are only used for processlevel parameterizations, not for determining trends in time. Other aspects may be encapsulated in statistical approach es to future climate that differ slightly from those described above. For example, in the ‘initial condition ensemble’ a group of simulations are carried out using a single global climate model (GCM) but with slight perturbations in the initial condi tions, e.g., the initial state of the climate system. This is done to average over chaotic behavior in the weather. A stronger and more extensively used methodology is the ‘multi-model en semble,’ which consists of simulations from multiple models that invoke the same initial conditions and the same future sce narios. Surprisingly, when used to explain past climatological observations, this approach is a better match than those using a single model. Accordingly, it is also being used for climate projections. The main question of interest concerning anthropogenic cli mate change is climate sensitivity. This is commonly viewed in the context of how climate will change when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration becomes double than that of the pre-industrial era. This is the atmospheric concentration of car bon dioxide most often used in current climate models. But to test these models, there must be experimental data for basic climate variables, such as obtained with direct instrumental measurements for basic climate variables. However, it should be taken into account that for the modern instrumental period the changes recorded for many aspects of climate have not been very large. Moreover, for surface temperature, instru ment-based records are not longer than 250 years, except in a few places in the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, modern ob servations do not enable proper assessment of climate sensi tivity to future changes; instead, we must rely on indirect, or ‘proxy,’ data such as gathered by paleoclimatologists from natural records of climate variability, e.g., tree rings, ice cores, fossil pollen, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and historical data. An analysis of the records taken from these and other proxy sources extend our knowledge of climate evolution far beyond the instrumental record. Among the periods of most interest for testing climate sensitivities with respect to the uncertainties of climate projections are the mid-Holocene (for tropical rainfall, sea ice), the 8200 years event (for the ocean thermohaline cir culation), the last two millennia (for decadal/multi-decadal vari ability), and the last interglacial period (for ice sheets/sea level). At this point, we can examine the difference between weather forecasting models and climate models. Conceptually, they are very similar because both seek to reproduce the behavior of the same system, the atmosphere, but in practice the two types of models are used very differently. Weather models use as much data as are available to describe the current weather situation and then rely on physical principles to make predic tions. Each six hours these models test whether their conclu sions are different from the actual meteorological conditions, as measured at a set of predefined meteorological stations. This procedure, called data assimilation, ensures a high level of confidence in meteorological forecasting at least for a few days (generally not more than ten at present). Since they are run for short periods of time only, weather models tend to have a

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much higher resolution and are described in more detailed physics than climate models. Moreover, the boundary condi tions in a run of weather models are considered to be constant, whereas they are a dynamic aspect of climate models. Weather models develop in ways that improve short-term predictions, although the impact on long-term statistics or climatology needs to be assessed independently. Curiously, the best weather mod els often have a much worse climatology than the best climate models. Global climate models are being used extensively to project global warming arising from increases in the atmospheric con centration of greenhouse gases. Estimates of future increases in greenhouse gases are applied as input in calculations that model how the global climate might evolve or respond in the future. In addition, natural changes must be taken into ac count, the most important being solar radiation, which chang es with time. Variations in solar radiation in the past record are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty and complexity. Nonetheless, given a particular estimate of solar activity there are a number of modeled responses. First, the total amount of solar radiation can be easily varied within a particular model— this changes the total amount of energy entering the climatic system. Second, variations in the incoming energy over the so lar cycle at different frequencies are not of the same amplitude; e.g., changes in UV radiation are about 10 times larger than changes in total irradiance. Since UV is mostly absorbed by ozone in the stratosphere, the inclusion of these changes in creases the magnitude of the variability in the solar cycle in the stratosphere. Furthermore, the change in UV has an impact on the production of ozone itself (even down into the troposphere). This can be calculated with chemistry-climate models and is increasingly being incorporated into climate model scenarios. In addition, within the scientific community other aspects of so lar activity on climate have been discussed, most notably the impact of galactic cosmic rays (which are modulated by the solar magnetic activity on solar-cycle timescales) on atmos pheric ionization, which in turn has been linked to aerosol for mation, and thus to cloud formation. Integrating those impacts within climate models remains a challenge and requires com plete models of aerosol creation, growth, accretion and cloud nucleation—as yet, however, such models are lacking. Although climate models can help to elucidate the process es that govern climate, the confidence placed in such models should always be questioned. Critically, it must be remem bered that all climate models are simplifications of the climate system. Indeed, it may be that the climate system is too com plex to be reproduced with sufficient accuracy. Climate models and their results must therefore be interpreted with due cau tion, and the margins of uncertainty reported with any model projection. Furthermore, results from climate models should al ways be validated or tested against real-world data, including instrumental and paleoclimatic records where available. Finally, projections of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas es are based on socioeconomic scenarios that include projec tions about economic, demographic, and technological devel opments, all of which are even more difficult to forecast than the behavior of the climate system.

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A climate model’s core equations are derived from the laws of physics and are used to describe how temperature, pressure, winds (or currents), and other variables in the atmosphere and ocean change over time. Additional equations describe chemi cal and biological aspects of the climate system. In climate mod els, climate-related variables are represented on a three-dimen sional grid representing the atmosphere and the oceans. The spacing between grid points in the atmosphere is crucial for evaluating the ability of a model to provide accurate climate pro jections for a specific region and the possible time scale of these projections. Typical grid spacing is 100 km horizontally and 500 m vertically. At present, this is too large for confident projections of the impacts of climate change at a regional scale. Research ers are therefore trying to develop models with greater resolu tion, a procedure generically known as downscaling. The core of a climate model uses well-understood physical, chemical, and biological equations and principles that have provided insights into climatic changes of the past. Despite their limitations, current climate models are able to accurately represent key aspects of the climate system and are continu ally evaluated against datasets of real observations. This has confirmed their ability to reproduce many aspects of climate, including the overall strength and pattern of recent changes in key climate variables. However, while climate models success fully project climate globally, they cannot make projections re garding the climate in a specific region.

Climate models help us to understand climate As noted above, the complexity of the climate system reflects the multiple interactions among its many parts as well as its numerous non-linear processes and complicated feedbacks, both of which are characterized by a dynamics that is very dif ficult to model. Climatic models can be used to generate in sight into how the climate system works. We cannot explore climate mechanisms or test theories by experimenting on the climate system itself, nor is it possible to reproduce the full complexity of the climate system in a laboratory. Instead, cli mate models offer the best possible alternative by serving as a numerical laboratory where important questions can be ad dressed: How will the climate change in response to rising lev els of greenhouse gases? What would happen to the climate if the ocean conveyor changes or slows down? Why did the Earth’s climate change in the past? Climate models take into account as many physical, chemi cal, and biological processes as possible but not all of them nor necessarily their dynamics. Instead, they use what are called parameterizations, that is, simplifications of certain processes, by using simpler mathematical representations in which a vari able depends on other, more fundamental ones that have been determined experimentally. The current models are certainly good enough to simulate large-scale climate phenomena, and in this respect they are continually checked by researchers in order to identify the limitations of a particular model. This is an important aspect that stimulates further improvements and ulti mately advances our understanding of the climate system.

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Can we be confident with climate models?

Nonetheless, as noted above, general circulation models are unable to project temperature and precipitation for a specific place. There are often large statistical variations in both param eters over short distances because local climatic characteristics are affected by local geography. Global models are designed to describe the most important large-scale features of climate, such as energy flow, circulation, and temperature, in a grid-box volume (through physical laws of thermodynamics, the dynam ics, and ideal gas laws). The shape of the landscape (details of mountains, coastline, etc.) used in the models reflects the spa tial resolution; hence, at today’s grid-box spacing, the model will not have sufficient detail to describe the local climate varia tion associated with local geographical features of lower spatial scale. For example, recent models are not capable of reproduc ing the topography of the Pyrenees, which has raised concern about the poor level of confidence in precipitation projections. However, through downscaling it is possible to use a GCM to derive some information about the local climate, as it is affected by local geography and large-scale atmospheric conditions. The results derived through downscaling can then be com pared with local climate variables and applied to further assess ments of the combination model-downscaling technique. This is, however, still an experimental approach. The importance of downscaling is that if we know with cer tainty the impacts of climate change at a local level, then adap tation to change is easier. Unfortunately, the former is not the case and many people doubt that we will ever be able to make predictions that are detailed and certain enough such that ‘predict and adapt’ will be a viable option. The majority of projections of future climate come from GCMs, which vary in the way they model the climate system and so produce different projections. These differences can be highly significant, for example, some models may show a region becoming wetter, while others show it becoming drier. This is what occurs with projections about precipitation in western Mediterranean regions: some models project small increases and others small reductions in the annual means. The advan tages of GCMs are in large-scale processes of the climate sys tem, as these models cannot make projections below the size of one grid cell (typically 300 km2) and perform best at much larger scales. Regional climate models (RCMs) and empirically downscaled data from GCMs allow projections to be made at a finer scale but they still have a high degree of uncertainty; RCM projections vary between models in the same way as GCMs and must be run within GCMs and so contain some of their larger biases as empirical downscaling does not attempt to cor rect any biases in the data obtained from the GCMs. Much of the difference in output between GCMs is due to the way that they parameterize different variables. For some phe nomena in the real world, knowledge of which is necessary for a climate model to work, the physics are only known empirically. Or it may be that the theory only truly applies at scales much smaller than the model’s grid size. These physics needs to be ‘parameterized’ in a mathematical formulation that captures the phenomenology of the process and its sensitivity to change but avoids the very small-scale details. Parameterizations are ap proximations of the phenomena that we are trying to model, but

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they work at scales that the models actually resolve. One exam ple is how the models treat precipitation. Since they cannot rep resent the internal physics of rainfall, they instead define a rela tionship between, e.g., humidity in the atmosphere and rainfall. Another example is the radiation code; rather than using a lineby-line code, which would resolve the spectroscopic absorp tion at over 10,000 individual wavelengths, a GCM generally uses a broad-band approximation (with 30–50 bands), which gives nearly the same results as a full calculation. In some pa rameterizations, the functional form is reasonably well known, but the values of specific coefficients might not be. In these cas es, the parameterizations are ‘tuned’ in order to reproduce the observed processes as much as possible. One of the most decisive and important parameterizations is that of clouds. Models do indeed consider clouds and allow for cloud changes in response to changes in atmospheric compo sition, for example, regarding aerosols and water-vapor con tent. There are certainly questions about how realistic these modeled clouds are and whether they have the right sensitivity concerning the albedo, but all models do include them. In gen eral, models suggest that clouds exert a positive feedback, i.e., there is a relative increase in high clouds (which warm more than they cool) compared to low clouds (which cool more than they warm), but this is quite variable among models and not very well constrained by the data. Cloud parameterizations are amongst the most complex component of the models. The large differences in mechanisms for cloud formation (convec tion, fronts, continental and marine) are reflected in the forma tion of different cloud types. Clouds have important microphysics that determine their properties (such as cloud particle size and phase) and they interact strongly with aerosols. Stand ard GCMs include most of these physics, and some models resolve clouds in each grid box. In such cases, much of the parameterization is omitted but at the cost of a considerable increase in complexity and, at present, uncertainty and there fore of computation time. Improvements in clouds representa tion by the GCMs would imply considerable progress in GCMs and other models of climate change. Uncertainty and differences between the models also arise because the small differences in the starting conditions from which the models begin their runs vary the output and the pro jections that they produce. Interestingly, a comparison of the outputs of models shows that they make similar projections re garding greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. For this reason, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2] carried out a prospective analysis to postu late a series of future scenarios [7] describing how the world will evolve politically, economically, demographically, and tech nologically until the end of 21st century, as this, in turn, will in fluence the emissions of greenhouse gases and therefore at mospheric composition. In attempts to identify the full range of possible future cli mates, scientists are conducting experiments in which for many thousands of model runs the values of parameters and initial conditions are changed slightly, yielding a range of plausi ble projections. These experiments are the previously men tioned multi-ensemble model runs, and those changing the

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What do the models predict for the future? Climate models successfully reproduce the main features of the present climate, such as rainfall, as well as the temperature changes over the last 100 years, the Holocene (6000 years ago), and Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago). Current models enable us to attribute the causes of past climate change and to predict the main features of climate in the future, with a high degree of confidence. As noted above, researchers are developing new models to provide more regional details of the impacts of climate change, and a more complete analysis of extreme events. But what are the main predictions of the most frequently used models? The climate projections documented in the Fourth Assess ment Report (AR4) of the IPCC [9] are based on a large set of climate simulations involving 23 global climate models. These simulations were carried out not only for the future but also to describe the recent past (1860–2000), thus enabling evaluation of their reliability in reproducing the climate trends of the 20th century. The concentrations of the major greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and chlo rofluorocarbons) as well as aerosol concentrations were con sistent with observations. Future projections according to emis sion scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 [7] were based on different socioeconomic assumptions, including population growth, en

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ergy consumption, use of fossil fuels, renewable energy sourc es etc. The models project that, compared to the time period 1980–1999, global warming by 1.8°C (range 1.1°C–2.9°C) for B1, 2.8°C (1.7°C–4.4°C) for A1B, and 3.4°C (2.0°C–5.4°C) for A2 will occur at the end of the 21st century. In the most ex treme (fossil intensive) scenario, A1FI, global warming may even exceed 6°C. But, what does the range of simulations look like? Figure 1 shows the plots for the global mean temperature anomaly for 55 individual realizations of the 20th century and their continua tion for the 21st century following the A1B scenario. Since this scenario is close enough to the actual forcing over recent years, it seems, in principle, to be a valid approximation for the simulations up to the present and for the probable future. It is clear from Fig. 1 that there is no doubt about the long-term trend (the global warming signal), but it is also obvious that the short-term behavior of any individual realization is uncertain. This is the impact of the uncorrelated stochastic variability (weather!) in the models that is associated with their interannual and interdecadal modes. Another consequence of global warming is the increase of atmospheric water vapor and increased water-vapor transport from the ocean to the continents, resulting in enhanced pre cipitation over the respective land masses. There are, however, large regional differences in the precipitation changes. In most models, precipitation is projected to increase at high latitudes, as already observed, and in parts of the tropics, whereas the subtropics will suffer from precipitation deficits. Models projec tions, overall, for the Mediterranean regions are not conclusive, but most of them include an increase in the annual water defi cit. The seasonal behavior of these changes is not homogene ous. In the summer, the models describe reductions in total rainfall of >50% Thus, the differences between humid and arid climate zones will be enhanced in a warmer climate. Similarly, a rise in the sea level is projected. Normally, sealevel variations occur on different time scales: rapid variations

IPCC AR4 individual realisation (20C3M+SRES A1B) Temperature Anomaly (ref. 1980-1999)

parameters of the models are referred to as perturbed physics experiments. The greater the number of simulations, the more confidence there should be if the full range of uncertainty in the system has been taken into account, although it may be that more models are needed in order to achieve the desired com pleteness. Given the differences between models, it is important to look at the range of projections resulting from many if not all of them rather than simply relying on one outcome chosen from many possibilities. Reliance on a projection from one model likely ignores the fact that other models project different chang es. If an adaptation option is based only on one projection, it may be unsuitable if that projection turns out to be incorrect. Some areas of uncertainty are likely to decrease, but some may not. For example, as the range of projections of change in temperature for 2050 has shifted very little since initial calcula tions were made over 20 years ago, it is important to recognize that we need to work with this uncertainty. The important point in the context of adaptation is how to deal with this uncertainty and make decisions that are robust against a range of future possibilities. One approach is to look at the range of projections from the different models to see which results are consistent. We can be confident that if all models say it will get wetter in June then this is likely to indeed be the case. If the relevant results are uncertain, then it is im portant to choose adaptation options that will be effective re gardless of which change occurs, i.e., that are robust against a range of future changes. This might involve the construction of resilient systems with a large adaptive capacity rather than choosing options that rely on a single direction of change.

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1.4 1.2 1.0 .8 .6 .4 .2 0. -.2 -.4 -.6 -.8 1950

1960

1970

1980

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Year Fig. 1. Fifty-five individual simulations of temperature anomaly com pared with the mean temperature from 1980–1999. The projections for a future warming are robust but in a short term there is still a big disper sion among the different models.

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(hours to days) are caused by winds and tides, whereas long er-term changes are related to large-scale climate processes. Additionally, tectonic uplift or the sinking of land masses can change the water level locally. Sea-level changes also vary in space on longer time-scales, depending on the distribution of temperature, wind stress, and circulation changes. Therefore, local sea-level variations can be larger (or smaller) than the glo bal average value. In the 20th century, tide gauge records pre dicted a global mean sea-level rise of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm per year. The observations have been corrected with geological models to account for tectonic uplift or sinking. Nonetheless, the un certainty of this global mean value is still relatively large, be cause only very few long-term tide gauge observations exist, and the corrections that need to be applied also exhibit uncer tainties. In principle, the observed rise should be equal to the sum of its contributions. Since the collection of satellite altime try data, starting in 1993, much more accurate observations of global sea-level variations have been obtained. Indeed, recent data show that between 1993 and 2003 global mean sea level rose by approximately 3.1 mm per year, which represents a considerable acceleration over previous periods. The increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cause the oceans to warm—since warm water oc cupies more volume than cold water, the water column ex pands and the sea level rises (thermal expansion). Sea-level changes due to density variations are termed steric sea-level variations. If the entire water column (a depth of up to 4000 m) were warmed by 1°C, the sea level would rise by approximately 50 cm. However, a homogeneous warming within a short time period is unrealistic, because waters comprising the deepocean layers exchange very slowly with those of the ocean sur face (the number given is only meant to provide an order of magnitude). Therefore, deep-ocean layers warm very gradual ly, which on the one hand slows the thermal sea-level rise, but on the other hand also causes the sea level to rise much longer into the future, even when atmospheric warming has long come to a halt. Temperature observations in the second half of the 20th century show a warming of all ocean basins, which has led to a thermal expansion of these waters. Since about 1990, this expansion has been accelerating and has contribut ed significantly to the observed total sea-level rise. The ocean volume changes also because of the addition of water from external water reservoirs. The world’s largest fresh water reservoir is the Antarctic ice sheet, with a volume cur rently estimated as 24.7 km3; thus, melting of the entire ice sheet would raise the sea level by approximately 56.6 m. Melt ing of the second largest water reservoir, the 2.9 km3 Green land ice sheet, would raise the sea level by approximately 7.3 m. Until recently, estimates of the Antarctic and Greenland mass balances were highly uncertain, but new satellite-based observations show a retreat at least of the Greenland ice sheet. Whether or not these observations represent long-term chang es is not clear due to the relatively short observational time. Similarly, it is currently not resolved whether the Antarctic ice sheet is also shrinking (the mean of all Antarctic observations points to a net melting, but the associated uncertainties are so large that even a growing ice sheet cannot be ruled out).

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Since 1850, many mountain glaciers and ice caps have re treated. This melting directly causes a rise in sea level, as the melt water enters the oceans through continental runoff. Melt ing of the entire volume would raise the sea level by between 15 and 37 cm. In the 20th century, the retreat of mountain glaciers has substantially contributed to the observed sea-level rise. Projections for the ocean level rise in the next century depend on the global warming scenario considered. However, since the oceans exchange relatively slowly with the atmosphere, thermal expansion over the next 20–30 years is more or less independ ent of the global warming scenario. Based on different green house emission estimates for the future, climate models project a global sea-level rise of 18–59 cm for 2090–2099 relative to the period 1980–1990 (Fig. 2). The largest contribution comes from thermal expansion, followed by the melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps. A large uncertainty in predictions of future sealevel rise is associated with the development of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under global warming. If the currently observed melting trend of the Greenland ice sheet continues or accelerates with rising atmospheric temperatures, the rise in sea level would be more than predicted. For the Antarctic ice sheet, the uncertainty is, as noted above, even greater.

Facing the future The scientific debate continues and will continue in the follow ing years. There are still numerous aspects very important for climate science that need more research and a better under standing of how natural systems behave. Some of them have been mentioned in this work, including downscaling, parame terizations, and ice-sheet melting. In the following paragraphs, some others are mentioned [11]. Methane. The amount of methane in the Earth’s atmosphere shot up in 2007, bringing to an end a period of about a decade in which atmospheric levels of this potent greenhouse gas were essentially stable. Methane levels in the atmosphere have more than doubled since pre-industrial times, accounting for around one-fifth of the human contribution to greenhouse-gas-driven global warming. Until recently, the leveling off of methane levels suggested that its rate of emission from the Earth’s surface was approximately balanced by its rate of destruction in the atmos phere. This was refuted by the enormous increase in 2007. Methane is released from wetlands and wildfires as well as from human activities, such as fossil fuel use and farming, but in the atmosphere it reacts with a compound known as the hydroxyl radical and disappears. A recent work [13] examined the change in global emissions of methane over a 10-year period. Atmos pheric measurements of methane and other chemical com pounds were obtained from two monitoring networks compris ing 12 worldwide locations. Methane levels were found to have risen simultaneously across all global sites beginning in early 2007. The increase was proposed to have been caused, at least in part, by a slight decline in the atmospheric levels of the hy droxyl radical, but changes in hydroxyl chemistry alone are insuf ficient to account for the entire rise in methane concentrations.

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Fig. 2. Projections and uncertainties (5 to 95% ranges) of global average sea level rise and its components in 2090 to 2099 (relative to 1980 to 1999) for the six Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Source: IPCC 2007.

Fusion of the permafrost was proposed as an important source of methane. Therefore some of the newly added meth ane could have originated in regions of high latitude; however, these hypotheses remain to be verified. A new greenhouse gas? The importance of nitrogen trifluo ride (NF3) as a greenhouse gas was not evaluated until the Third Assessment Report [8]. Current publications report a long lifetime for NF3—between 500 and 700 years or more— with a high global warming potential, which according to the Kyoto criteria would be second only to that of sulfur hexafluo ride (SF6). The atmospheric concentration of NF3 has increased 20-fold over the past three decades and has a potential green house impact larger than that of the SF6 emissions of industrial ized nations, or even of the world’s largest coal-fired power plants. Like other chemicals, NF3 began as a niche product, in this case for rocket fuel and lasers. Now, it is marketed as a plasma etchant and equipment cleaning gas in the semicon ductor industry. With the surge in demand for flat panel dis plays, the market for NF3 has grown enormously [12]. How much warming, when, and at what concentration we should try to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gases? There is wide agreement that we are already experiencing a warming trend in atmospheric and sea surface temperatures, such that it is reasonable to wonder how climate will change in the short-term and what will be the consequences. Independ ent of the long term, climate is subject to internal fluctuations, which produce internal climate variability. Over the next dec ade, it could be that the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean, such that the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly [10]. If this occurs, the global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, because natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific will temporarily offset the

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projected anthropogenic warming. These findings do not imply that global warming is not happening, but rather that natural oscillations in the climate system could lead to short-term changes that temporarily eclipse human-induced warming. However, this last statement is questionable to climate experts not convinced that falling temperatures in some regions will cause a slight slowdown in global warming. A long-unresolved point is the concentration at which at mospheric greenhouse gases should be stabilized to avert a dangerous degree of change. Atmospheric CO2 concentra tions today are around 385 parts per million (ppm), with 400– 450 ppm as the upper limit to keep warming below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. However, James Hansen [6], a prestigious NASA scientist, has stated that more stringent limits will prob ably be necessary to avoid irreversible catastrophic effects. His work is in agreement with other studies (e.g., [14]) concluding that the severity of human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on its poten tial irreversibility. Models have been used to show that climate change arising from increases in the carbon dioxide concentra tion is largely irreversible, even after emissions cease. There fore, the period between when the emissions stop until the at mosphere recovers its former greenhouse gases concentrations will be quite long. Other scientists are more optimistic and rec ommend [5] stabilization of the atmospheric CO2 concentration at up to 550 ppm, a limit that is used as a reference in interna tional mitigation conferences. Scientific uncertainty remains about just how much CO2 is too much, but, based on the cur rent state of affairs, reaching a final consensual figure will also be a question of what is politically achievable. Will storms be more frequent in the future? There has been much speculation as to whether storms and hurricanes will increase in intensity, frequency, or duration as a result of global warming. Globally, the number of major hurricanes has shot up by 75% since 1970, but the role of human activity in

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this rise has remained contentious. Using a specific model de signed for hurricanes, Kerry Emmanuel [4] showed that warm ing should reduce the frequency of hurricanes globally, al though hurricane intensity may increase in some locations. At present, there is no definite consensus among scientists be cause the relationship between sea-surface temperature and storm formation, on local or global scales, has yet to be eluci dated. The same could be said concerning Mediterranean storms. Some models predict that global warming will produce more frequent and more intense storms but until now there is no evidence supporting this claim.

Final remarks Although there has been a great progress in climate modeling during the last 15 years, confident projections of future climate await the resolution of certain problems, as discussed in this review. For example, missing processes in the models affect the size and iteration time. In addition, natural climate variability is superimposed on anthropogenic trends, which contributes to the vagueness of current models. Perhaps the biggest un certainty is future emissions of greenhouse gases, because this will depend on the evolution of society. This is further com plicated by the fact that in the absence of a political consensus it will be difficult to achieve substantial mitigation of greenhouse gases emissions. The problem will persist as long as there is no scientific agreement, which is needed in order to send a certain and precise message about the future consequences of in creasing greenhouse gas emissions for the Earth’s climate and the global impacts of the changing climate.

Notes and references Notes 1. The Earth’s albedo is the amount of radiation reflected by Earth (clouds, surface) to the space and is expressed as

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a percentage. The most important processes that deter mine the albedo are the reflection onto clouds and the surface of ocean, and the type of land cover. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) is an international panel of experts in climate change. It was created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organi zation and the United Nations Environmental Program.

References 3. Anable J, Lane B, Kelay T(2009) Review of public atti tudes to climate change and transport: Summary report. http://www.dft.gov.uk/adobepdf/163944/A_review_of_ public_attitude1.pdf., Accessed 30 May 2011 4. Emmanuel K (2008) The hurricane-climate connection. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89:347-367 5. Garnaut R (2008) The Garnaut Climate Change Review. Cambridge University Press 6. Hansen J et al. (2008) Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2:217-231 7. IPCC (2000) Emission Scenarios. A special report of IPCC working group III 8. IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Cambridge University Press 9. IPCC (2008) Climate change 2007. Cambridge University Press 10. Keenlyside NS et al. (2008) Advancing decadal-scale cli mate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature 453:84-88 11. Leigh A (2009) What we’ve learned in 2008. Nature Re ports Climate Change, doi:10.1038/climate.2008.142 12. Prather MJ, Hsu J (2008) NF3, the greenhouse gas miss ing from Kyoto. Geophys Res Lett 35:L12810 13. Rigby M et al. (2008) Renewed growth of atmospheric methane. Geophys Res Lett 35:L22805 14. Solomon S et al. (2009) Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions. PNAS 106:1704-1709

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CONTRIBUTIONS to SCIENCE, 7 (1): 37–44 (2011) Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona DOI: 10.2436/20.7010.01.106 ISSN: 1575-6343 www.cat-science.cat

Celebration of Earth Day at the Institute for Catalan Studies, 2009

Biodiversity: Origin, function and threats * Joandomènec Ros 1, 2 1. Department of Ecology, Faculty of Biology, University of Barcelona, Barcelona 2. Biological Sciences Section, Institute for Catalan Studies, Barcelona

Resum. Tot i que ens ha costat molt de temps adonar-nos-en, finalment s’ha evidenciat que l’enorme capital biològic de la Terra és una riquesa igual o, fins i tot, més valuosa que la rique sa material i cultural. No obstant això, és tristament irònic que el coneixement que comencem a guanyar sobre la biodiversi tat del planeta i el paper important que té en el funcionament del món i dels nostres propis assumptes ha arribat en un mo ment històric en què la nostra espècie ataca aquesta biodiver sitat en tots els fronts possibles. En commemoració de l’Any Internacional de la Biodiversitat 2010, aquest article explora què és la diversitat biològica o biodiversitat i per què és impor tant, quins són els problemes que afronta, les principals cau ses d’aquests problemes i el que un ciutadà mitjà hi pot fer. Els nous objectius del Conveni de Biodiversitat per a l’any 2020 inclouen la gestió i explotació sostenible de les poblacions d’animals i plantes aquàtiques, l’augment de les terres i les zo nes costaneres protegides i la reducció dels nivells de conta minació que són nocius per als ecosistemes i la biodiversitat, entre d’altres. El que hi ha en joc és no solament la supervivèn cia de la varietat d’organismes del planeta, sinó també els ser veis ambientals que aquests duen a terme i que són totalment necessaris per a nosaltres, per no parlar de la nostra pròpia supervivència com una altra espècie en la biosfera.

Summary. Even though it has taken us a long time to realize, it has finally become clear that the vast biological capital of the Earth is a wealth which is equally or even more valuable than material and cultural wealth. Yet, it is sadly ironic that the knowledge we are beginning to gain about the planet’s biodi versity and its important role in the functioning of the world and our own affairs has come at a time in history when our species is assaulting this biodiversity on all possible fronts. In com memoration of the International Year of Biodiversity 2010, this article explores what biological diversity or biodiversity is and why it is important, what problems it is confronting, the main causes of these problems, and what the average citizen can do about them. The new objectives for 2020 of the Biodiversity Convention include the sustainable management and exploita tion of aquatic animal and plant populations, to raise protected land and coastal areas and to lower pollution levels that are harmful for ecosystems and biodiversity, among others. What is at stake is not only the survival of the variety of organisms on the planet but also the environmental services they perform, which are totally necessary for us, not to mention our own sur vival as yet another species in the biosphere. Keywords: biodiversity ∙ ecodiversity ∙ sustainability ∙ International Year of Biodiversity

Paraules clau: biodiversitat ∙ ecodiversitat ∙ sostenibilitat ∙ Any Internacional de la Biodiversitat

The year 2010 was declared the International Year of Biodiver sity (Fig. 1), and all sorts of events and activities were held with the goal of letting society know what biodiversity is and what problems it is facing. What is biological diversity or biodiversity? Why is it important? What problems is it confronting? What are the causes of these problems, and what can the average citi zen do about them?

At the United Nations’ Conference on the Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, a number of coun tries approved the Convention on Biological Diversity, which had three objectives: to protect the biological diversity, to sus

* Based on the lecture given by the author at the Institute for Catalan Studies, Barcelona, on 29 April 2009 for the celebration of Earth Day at the IEC (1a Jornada de Sostenibilitat i Canvi Climàtic). Correspondence: J. Ros, Department of Ecology, Faculty of Biology, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 643, E-08028 Barcelona, Catalo nia, EU. Tel. +34-934021511. Fax +34-934111438. E-mail: jros@ub. edu

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2010 Any Internacional de la Diversitat Biològica Fig. 1. Logo of the International Year of Biodiversity as commemorated in the territories of Catalan language and culture.

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tainably use its components, and to fairly and equitably share the benefits that this sustainable use yields. Since then, the terms ‘sustainability’ and ‘biodiversity’ have become part of our everyday vocabularies. However, it is not clear whether ei ther one is fully understood by lay people; we shall talk about biodiversity, but we shall also refer to sustainability at some point in this text.

Little-known wealth Two kinds of wealth have traditionally been acknowledged as a country’s assets: material wealth (the kind that concerns main ly economists and bankers) and cultural wealth (the terrain cul tivated by historians, artists, intellectuals, etc.). Even though it has taken us a long time to realize, it has finally become clear that there is another kind of wealth: the vast biological capital of the Earth, which is equally or even more valuable than the oth ers and is the kind that concerns naturalists, botanists, zoolo gists, ecologists, and their peers. Biodiversity is the richness and variety of species of living beings, but it is also the biological wealth considered at other scales, ranging from the genetic one (genic variability within a given species of bacterium, fungus, plant or animal) to the tax onomical (different categories immediately under the species such as sub-species, varieties and breeds, and immediately above it such as genera, families, etc.), and even the geo graphical one (different geographical areas that also contain different numbers of species). In an easily understandable sim ile, Ramon Margalef said that biodiversity is like the ‘dictionary’ (Fig. 2) of nature: the exhaustive inventory of all the flora and fauna in a given region, or on the entire Earth. Ecodiversity or ecological diversity would be the ‘grammar’: the proportions among the different components and the way they are organ ized and interact within ecosystems, just as grammar enables us to organize words to form intelligible texts, be they literary, technical, or poetic. The ‘grammar’ of nature is still largely unknown to us, but what we do know points to the fact that there are certain rules for building ecosystems. Here are a few: today’s ecosystems are the outcome of both the interaction of their components and an evolutionary, geological and biological history. This his tory dates far back in time and has undergone losses through individual extinction and episodes of mass extinction, but also gains through speciation, evolutionary radiation, and the inva sion of allochthonous species. There are species that are cru cial for ecosystems to function smoothly, while other species are relatively commonplace and exchangeable. There is a direct relationship between ecological diversity and the stability of ec osystems, but a certain degree of disturbance also encourages biodiversity. All species, from the humblest to the most visible and showy, play a role in cycling nutrients, producing and con suming organic materials, providing less obvious ecosystem services which we rarely consider (composition of the atmos phere itself, soil formation, purification of polluted water, soil and air, the climate itself, etc.) or the production of natural re sources (foods, medicines, building materials, etc.), which we

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Fig. 2. Biodiversity is the dictionary of nature (original by Joan-Albert Ros).

more consciously appropriate. The different ecosystems and the entire biosphere depend to a greater or lesser extent on the species of living beings, and as yet another species, so do we.

How many species are there? In the past 250 years, taxonomists have described around 1.8 million species of living beings, and there are reasonable esti mates that the total might be between 15 and 30 million spe cies on Earth today, or perhaps even more. Of these species, some are more abundant, active, and transformative of their environment than others; they are the bulwark of ecosystems because they allow other species to move in (as happens with trees and forests, with coral and coral reefs, etc.). Other spe cies, despite their abundance, do not seem to play such an important role and (perhaps because we do not know enough about them) seem ordinary and even redundant or replaceable: if they did not exist, perhaps the ecosystem in which they live would not suffer from their loss (Fig. 3). Other species, though not very numerous, play an essential role because they exert control over others, leading us to re gard them as keystone species: without them the entire eco system (or much of it) would crumble or radically change. Pred ators and pathogenic organisms are examples of these. Finally, yet others, precisely because they are few, rare, and relegated to small habitats, seem to be the last holdouts of lineages that might have once been successful but now (for a host of rea sons not always known) seem to be in the homestretch of a process of extinction, which is actually common to all species, although it may take place along many millions of years. Without realizing it, we have used the term ‘ecosystem,’ which should be defined as follows: the ecosystem is the entire set of species that live in a given environment: a forest, a lake, a

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Total impact of the species

Rare species (such as carnivores, pollinators, germs, etc.)

Rare species (such as wild plants, butterflies, moss, etc.)

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Dominant species (such as trees, large herbivores, macrophytes, graminacae, etc.)

Commonplace species with a low impact (such as undergrowth trees, shrubs, grasses, etc.)

Proportional biomass of the different species Fig. 3. The species of organisms can be classified into four major groups according to whether they are important to the ecosystem be cause of their abundance, whether they are not important despite their abundance, whether they are not important because they are very scarce, and whether they are important despite the fact that they are scarce. These are the keystone species [40,41].

sea, etc.; plus their inanimate, geological, physical, and chemi cal environment; plus the interactions among these species, from simple physical coexistence to predation, and including all kinds of more or less complex relations, such as competition, symbiosis, and mutualism; plus the interactions between the species and their inanimate environment. Therefore, ecosys tem is a theoretical yet also very real concept. We could com pare it to ‘society’ in human affairs, or ‘trade,’ or even ‘civiliza tion.’ This enables us to also call to mind other approaches to understanding the role of the species and their respective abundance, meaning that different species of organisms in their environments may resemble what we human beings do in our societies: there are different ‘professions,’ some of them crucial and others less so. Some jobs are performed by just a few specialists, while other, perhaps less complex jobs are per formed, either better or worse, by a multitude of people; they are the generalists and for that very reason they are inter changeable and/or expendable. While we have known for some time that certain regions are extremely diverse (tropical rainforests, coral reefs) and that oth ers function with a small number of species, recent discoveries have opened up unexpected windows onto the biological rich ness of geographic areas that were assumed to be thoroughly researched already or inhospitable to life. This is true of what are called subsurface lithoautotrophic microbial ecosystems, made up of bacteria and fungi which occupy the pores of igne ous rocks located at a certain depth within the Earth’s surface (up to three kilometres or deeper), which get energy from inor ganic chemical substances without the need for organic input from the surface. A similar phenomenon can be found in the abyssal ‘oases,’ fertile islands in a truly deserted environment: the bottom of the sea where the Earth’s crust is generated. Around the hydrothermal vents which pour water that has been heated to dozens or hundreds of degrees into the sea and op erate as continuous geysers, two decades ago a community

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made up of strange worms and other animals was discovered, unknown to science until then. Not only were there new spe cies, there were also entirely new taxonomic groups. What made this discovery extraordinary, in addition to the abun dance of organisms that existed in contrast to the poverty of the abyssal bottoms of all oceans, was the fact that the trophic webs of these oases were not based on plant photosynthesis, as the most common systems both on land and in the sea are. Here, the primary producers are chemosynthetic bacteria, de riving energy from reduced metals (especially sulphur) dis solved in the water expelled from the vents and seeps; these bacteria live independently in the environment or form strange symbioses with different invertebrate species. According to recent studies, underwater canyons, guyots or mountains, and other geographical features rising up from the sea bottom also contain fauna unlike those of the surrounding sea floor, with examples of multiple speciation reminiscent of what has been known about land for years, where isolated val leys in high mountain chains, tepuis, and oceanic islands are the home to endemic flora and fauna. On land, studies of geo graphically remote areas are resulting in the majority of new species discovered, chiefly insects and plants. However, in some cases these discoveries are surprising because they in volve large animals that have gone unnoticed by science until very recently. The best-known cases are the discoveries of mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles in jungle regions all over the world. Something similar has happened in the oceans, where giant species have recently been discovered, ranging from bacteria (‘giant’ because they are visible to the naked eye: one to two millimetres in size) to squid and sharks. Some of these species, about which science knew nothing until quite recently, play an important ecological role: one cyanobacteri um of marine picoplankton, Prochlorococcus marinus, can be extremely abundant (up to 100,000 cells ml–1), and its photo synthetic activity might account for around one-third of the to tal primary production in the oceans.

A huge undertaking As greater surveying efforts and the use of molecular tools are expanding the taxonomic catalogue of biodiversity, it is also becoming clear that decades, if not centuries, will be needed to perform the enormous undertaking of cataloguing the entire biological diversity of the different ecosystems on Earth at the rate we are doing so now. The situation is particularly serious because the blossoming of certain branches of biology (mo lecular, genetic, ecological, etc.) has led to a decline in taxono my among young biologists; today there are many taxonomic groups with only a single specialist in the entire world, or two at most, and they are often professionals on the verge of retire ment. The solution may be found in initiatives like the one launched by the Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad (National Biodiversity Institute) of Costa Rica and other, similar centers, particularly in countries where there are “hotspots” with ex tremely rich flora and fauna (tropical, Mediterranean, and other regions). In the studies conducted by these centers, the first

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screening and tentative classification of the specimens collect ed are performed by parataxonomists, people with little formal training in taxonomy but with sound knowledge of the local flo ra and fauna. Later, specialists in laboratories, universities, and museums from all over the world would perform the more intri cate work. The establishment of databases that are constantly updated and have good morphological and anatomical images and the ability to consult them via the Internet, such as the one promoted by the All Species Foundation, as well as the rapid exchange of information among experts and amateurs made possible by the worldwide web, should contribute to facilitating this comprehensive biodiversity census, which may be utopian yet is also necessary.

It may be too late It is sadly ironic that the knowledge we are beginning to gain about the planet’s biodiversity and its important role in the functioning of the world and our own affairs has come at a time in history when our species is assaulting this biodiversity on all possible fronts: destroying habitats (especially tropical rainfor ests, but also temperate forests, wetlands, and coastal areas all over the world), directly eliminating some of the most fragile species and propagating others (domestic, anthropophilic, pests, weeds; in short, commonplace species), polluting the environment, and exhausting what for us are natural resources but for the ecosystems involved are crucial elements in their functioning. And we are imposing this destruction at a point in history when humanity is having serious problems just feeding almost two-thirds of its growing population. Referring to the simile above, we are indiscriminately tearing out entire pages from that dictionary even before we make the effort to find out what they contain or to profit from the potential benefits of the information. The ecosystems simplified by mankind (crop fields, polluted rivers, cities, exploited forests, and overfished coastal areas) operate with a lower number of species (and fewer interactions among them) than unaltered ecosystems (or ones that have been barely altered, since our species’ footprint stretches to practically every corner of the planet). However, we do not know to what extent we can keep losing biodiversity. There fore, aware that what has been described until now is only a tiny fraction of the total possible species inhabiting out planet, we must be judicious and apply the principle of precaution be fore it is too late. The efforts to conduct a detailed study of some species have revealed their imperilled situation (Fig. 4). The same holds true for certain communities in which the erosion of biodiversity is extreme (such as mangrove swamps and coral reefs among marine systems; tropical rainforests, Mediterranean ecosys tems, tectonic lakes and oceanic islands among terrestrial sys tems). There are increasing cases of vertebrate species (mainly mammals and birds) whose populations include such a small number of individuals that their survival is unfeasible. Some of these species (such as the black rhinoceros, the Bengal tiger, the snow panther, etc.) have more specimens living in zoos

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Fig. 4. The number of threatened species (ranging from slightly threat ened to almost extinct) is quite high and steadily rising. LC: least con cern; DD: data deficient; NT: near threatened; VU: vulnerable; EN: en dangered; CR critically endangered; EW: extinct in the wild. Reproduced with permission of IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature).

and circuses than in nature. The so-called ‘charismatic mega-fauna’ species (large ani mals that our species admires), such as the panda, the tiger, the mountain gorilla, the Mediterranean monk seal, and the bald eagle, play a twofold role. First, they are important species in their ecosystems, in some cases ‘keystone species’ on which many others and thus the overall functioning of the entire community depend, and secondly they are attractive to the public at large and for this very reason capable of stimulating campaigns to protect them and their habitats. This boosts knowledge of them, while they are also used as indicators of the conservation status of species and habitats and of the ef forts our society makes to protect them. For this reason, it is worrisome that so many of them are in the terminal stage, in the sense that they are just a step away from extinction. This is the case of the lynx on the Iberian Peninsula, probably the only large mammal species currently in danger of extinction in Eu rope (where many other species have already disappeared or remain heavily protected, such as the bear, Przewalski’s horse, the European bison, and the bearded vulture). The drama of the loss of some of these species through ex tinction is not merely aesthetic or scientific (due to the disap pearance of unique, unrepeatable organisms that are the evo lutionary response to adaptation to given environments) nor solely ethical (our species tends to be the cause of these ex tinctions and we are therefore collectively responsible for them). Even more worrisome is the loss of the ecological func tion that these species perform in their environment, which cannot always be replaced. For example, on the African savan nah, the domesticated livestock herds introduced through Eu ropean colonization do not produce even half the meat per hectare that the autochthonous ungulates do, are much more susceptible to illnesses, and deplete the natural vegetation in such a way that it cannot recover.

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Cascades of erosion

What can we do?

The triggering of a cascade of effects that can totally transform the appearance, structure, and functions of the affected com munities has had very dire consequences. In this sense, it is believed that the disappearance or rarefication of large terres trial and aquatic animals, either herbivores or carnivores, most ly for anthropic reasons over the past 11,000 years (the ap proximate date of the major expansion of the human species around all the continents after the retreat of the ice from the last glaciations) drastically transformed the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Something similar is happening today, with hu man intrusions into tropical regions all over the planet, with the overfishing of one fishing ground after another in the seas all over the world, and with the trade in exotic species, either liv ing, stuffed or in the guise of skeletons, pelts or hard parts (horns, shells, etc.). The impact of these misdeeds has prompt ed notable changes in the planet’s ecosystems. This can be the case of the proliferation of jellyfish, which seem to have multiplied in recent years. Not only are they bothersome to summertime swimmers, but in some ecosystems they have also replaced large fish as the predators of small fish and their larvae, thus impacting not only natural communities but also fishing stocks. One of the causes of this proliferation of jellyfish is a decline in their predators (sea turtles and fish), but another is the huge surplus of plankton, which is no longer being con sumed by the fish that we have been constantly overfishing for centuries now. There are hopeful initiatives. The number of protected areas on both land and sea, in which the exploitation of natural re sources is banned or severely limited, is steadily rising (another issue is the efficacy of these protective measures; they have of ten been criticized as ‘paper parks’ in the sense that they confer protection only on paper but they are not supported by budgets adequate to fund enforcement, surveillance, or re search). Ecotourism, the visit to some of these protected areas, brings many more benefits than the conventional exploitation of animal and plant species, but the very frequency of the visitors to these parks or reserves is also one of the causes of their deg radation; this should be regulated and some areas where visits are not allowed should be set aside as permanent sanctuaries. The acquisition of natural lands by governments, organiza tions, or private individuals in order to spare these lands from agricultural or urban development or from forestry uses is an effective strategy, and not only in developing countries. Many conservationist NGOs, environmentally-committed companies, foundations, and private individuals pay relatively affordable prices that allow them to purchase thousands or millions of hectares of jungle or forest whose protection can be negotiated with the governments of the countries involved. Bioprospecting (searching for natural resources in plant and animal species) has furnished hundreds of new molecules, produced by terres trial and marine organisms, whose characteristics make them useful as medicines. The realization that biodiversity can be in dustrially profitable will also help to conserve it.

However, right now, the pace at which biodiversity is being eroded and lost outstrips the efforts to conserve it. Slowing down the loss in biodiversity at the local, regional, and global scales means securing the protection, compensation, restora tion, and rational and sustainable management of the wealth that biodiversity is. And this should be done through a skilful mix of scientific research aimed at learning more about the components and role of biodiversity, capital investment to cre ate sustainable markets instead of the consumers and squan derers that we have now, and governance to smooth the thorny coexistence between economic growth and conserva tion. Conserving biodiversity requires the efforts of everyone in all fields. It requires a change in attitudes at work as profession als, at home, on the street as citizens, and when we act as consumers, tourists, and voters. All of our decisions ultimately affect the conservation of biological diversity in the short or long term. Since there are no neutral decisions, the way we can contribute to improving the conservation of the biological diver sity in our neighborhood, our district, our country and, by ex tension, the world is by accepting our responsibility from the very start. Readers might ask what the average citizen’s responsibility for the loss of biodiversity is and therefore what can be done to prevent or reduce it. Assuming that this average citizen is not a hunter, fisher, or pyromaniac, and thus directly attacking biodi versity, we should bear in mind that we are all to a greater or lesser extent consumers of resources that directly or indirectly affect the integrity of species and ecosystems. I shall cite a few examples, which can be appreciated in greater detail when reading books and articles on the issue (such as those included in the bibliography) or simply by scanning the daily newspaper.

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It is within our reach The exotic animal stands that had peppered Barcelona’s Ram blas for decades were only recently removed. The animals sold there, some of them illegally (because they were protected species), were just a small fraction of those that had been cap tured in their original habitats, jungles, and forests all over the world, because many of them died in the process of capture, transport, and maintenance. After being purchased by poorly informed citizens, many of them escaped (such as parrots and snakes) or were abandoned because they became dangerous as they grew (such as turtles and alligators). In the alien envi ronment into which they were released, these animals either died or they adapted, but often creating havoc in our rivers (Florida turtles have displaced autochthonous ones all over temperate Europe) and to local crops (parrots harm fruit trees). The trade in exotic animals (which has not stopped despite the removal of those stands) harms both the native and the host ecosystems. There is still a worse despoilment of diversity than these ex otic ‘pets’. Mollusc shells, coral (tropical madreporaria and Mediterranean red coral), bird feathers, ivory, gorilla hands, rhi

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noceros horns, and tiger and seal penises, among other goods, are a constant drain on biodiversity for totally gratuitous ends (‘decorative’ objects), if not clearly false ones (purported aphro disiacs or cures, according to the Asian pharmacopeia). Half way between this despoilment and that of the hunting activities is the harvesting of medicinal plants, mistletoe and moss (for Christmas celebrations!), the capture of songbirds and other follies that demonstrate not only the Neolithic roots of our cus toms but also wholesale ignorance of the role these organisms play in their natural habitats. We inhabitants of the shores of the Mediterranean are huge fish consumers, even though fish are no longer so plentiful off our shores and now come from fishing grounds virtually all over the world. Therefore, far-off fishing grounds are exploited to supply our markets. Yet what is more, the fish that we usually eat tend to be first-, second- or third-level carnivores, which are much fewer in number than herbivores. (On Earth, in gen eral, we feed on plants and herbivores, that is, from the first and second levels of the trophic pyramid, the most abundant.) A very simple measure for lowering the pressure on these fish populations would be to preferentially eat species located fur ther down in the trophic pyramid, the planktophages (such as sardines and other blue fish, which are also very healthy). At the same time, we would lower the loss in species that control their ecosystems, such as carnivores everywhere. For anyone inter ested, there are lists of fish species (and other animal species) whose consumption is innocuous for our ecosystem, and oth ers (such as many species of tuna) that are seriously threat ened and whose days are numbered. The consumer of fish (or whatever else) should not turn a blind eye to this situation. The same holds true for other resources whose exploitation directly impacts natural habitats. Most of the deforestation of the African and Asian jungles is to harvest precious wood (which ends up being part of the furniture sold all over the world) or to set up plantations growing cocoa, coffee, or other plants from whose products we benefit. It is clear that we can not do without some of these products, but we can purchase only those that decent, trustworthy organizations certify have been produced without harming their natural habitats, that is, sustainably. In contrast, the tropical and sub-tropical jungles and forests in the Americas seem to be suffering particularly acutely from the pressure of deforestation to clear for pastures or corn fields (which might be used for biofuels), or to grow soy, which is omnipresent in our foods today. It is evident that a balanced diet also includes meat protein, but we citizens of Western countries overdo beef consumption (and for this reason, new pastures must be cleared for increasingly large herds). It is evi dent that dwindling oil has to be replaced by other fuels, but surely not at the expense of harming the natural habitats to plant sugar cane and corn there. Soy has a high protein con tent, but this does not justify transforming forests and scrub land into immense soy fields. And we could say the same about many resources whose exploitation would not come at the cost of a vast erosion of biodiversity if they were used more carefully and sustainably. If our ecological footprint is exces sive, eliminating the part of it that we can dispense with would

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help to compensate for the ecosystems that we have been de pleting for centuries.

What does the future hold for us? Future prospects are not promising. We are far from achieving sustainable exploitation of the planet’s resources, and there are more and more people on Earth who must be fed and are demanding lifestyles closer to those of the developed coun tries. I began this article by explaining that 2010 has been de clared International Year of Biodiversity. When the 10th confer ence of the parties of the Biodiversity Convention met in Nagoya last October to note the headway that had been made since the previous convention, the governments acknowl edged that the overall objective, a significant drop in the loss of biodiversity, had not been achieved despite a few local, minor successes and a trend towards greater awareness among in dividuals and governments. The new objectives for 2020 set by the signatory countries of the Biodiversity Convention include, among others: • To ensure sustainable management and exploitation of aquatic animal and plant populations. • To significantly lower the anthropic pressure on coral reefs. • To eradicate or properly control certain exotic invasive species. • To raise the protected land area to at least 17% and the protected coastal and marine area to at least 10%. • To stave off the extinction of seriously threatened species. • To lower pollution to levels that are innocuous for ecosys tems and biodiversity. • To cut the rate of natural habitat loss at least by half. • To restore at least 15% of the depleted ecosystems. • To eliminate subsidies for activities that directly or indi rectly have a negative effect on biodiversity. We can hope that when a new conference of the parties meets a decade from now, the headway in these areas and the results of these objectives are more promising than they were in Nagoya. What is at stake is not only the survival of the variety of organisms on the planet but also the environmental services they perform, which are totally necessary for us, not to mention our own survival as yet another species in the bio sphere.

Bibliography and recommended reading 1. 2. 3. 4.

Barbault R (2006) Un éléphant dans un jeu de quilles. L’homme dans la diversité. Seuil, Paris Bascompte J, Jordano P (2008) Redes mutualistas de especies. Investigación y ciencia 384:50-59 Bellés X (1996) Entendre la biodiversitat. La Magrana, Barcelona Bellés X (1998) Supervivientes de la biodiversidad. Ru bes, Barcelona

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5. 6.

7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21.

22. 23. 24. 25.

26. 27.

28. 29.

Boada M, Capdevila L (2000) Barcelona. Biodiversitat ur bana. Ajuntament de Barcelona, Barcelona Boudouresque C-F (1995) Impact de l’homme et conser vation du milieu marin en Méditerranée. Université d’AixMarseille Broswimmer FJ (2002) Ecocide. A Short History of the Mass Extinction of Species. Pluto Press, London Carreras C (ed) (2004) Atles de la diversitat. Enciclopèdia Catalana, Barcelona Carson R (1962) Silent Spring. Houghton Mifflin, Boston Colinvaux PA (1978) Why Big Fierce Animals are Rare. Princeton University Press Collins M (ed) (1994) Selves tropicals. Biosfera, 2. Enci clopèdia Catalana, Barcelona Cox-Foster D, vanEngelsdorp D (2009) Saving the hon eybee. Scientific American, April:40-47 Diamond JM (1997) Guns, Germs, and Steel. The Fates of Human Societies. W. W. Norton, New York Diamond JM (2005) Collapse. How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Viking, New York Donlan CJ (2007) Restoring America’s Big, Wild Animals. Scientific American, May Earle SA (1995) Sea Change. A Message of the Oceans. Putnam, New York Ehrlich PR, Ehrlich AH (1981) Extinction. Random House, New York Eldredge N (2000) Life in the Balance. Humanity and the Biodiversity Crisis. Princeton University Press Ellis R (2008) The Bluefin in peril. Scientific American, March Gende SM, Quinn TP (2006) The fish and the Forest. Sci entific American, July Gleich M, Maxeiner D, Miersch M, Nicolay F (2001) Las cuentas de la vida. Life Counts. Un balance global de la naturaleza. Galaxia Gutenberg-Círculo de Lectores, Bar celona Goldschmidt T (1998) Darwin’s Dreampond. Drama in Lake Victoria. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts Kareiva P, Marvier M (2007) Conservation for the People. Scientific American, September Kunzig R (2000) Mapping the Deep. The Extraordinary Story of Ocean Science. Sort of Books, London Margalef R (1973) Ecological theory and prediction in the study of the interaction between man and the rest of the biosphere. In: Sioli H (ed) Ökologie und Lebenss chutz in internalionaler Sicht. Rombach, Freiburg, pp. 307‑353 Margalef R (1980) La Biosfera: entre la termodinámica y el juego. Omega, Barcelona Margalef R (1983) La ciencia ecològica y los problemas ambientales, técnicos, sociales y humanos. In: Echechuri H (ed) Diez años después de Estocolmo. CIFCA, Madrid, pp. 21-87 Margalef R (1985) L’Ecologia. Diputació de Barcelona, Barcelona Margalef R (1987) Divagacions sobre el concepte de conservació. Arrels 19:6-11

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30. Margalef R (1990) La diversidad biológica y su evolución. Panda 29:4 31. Margalef R (1992) Planeta azul: Planeta verde. Prensa Científica, Barcelona 32. Margalef R (1994) Diversity and biodiversity: Their possi ble meaning in relation with the wish for sustainable de velopment. An Acad bras Ci 66 (Supl. 1):3-14 33. Margalef R (1997) Our Biosphere. Ecology Institute, Old endorf/Luhe 34. McGoodwin JR (1990) Crisis in the World Fisheries. Peo ple, Problems, and Policies. Stanford University Press, Stanford 35. Moyer M (2010) How Much is Left? Scientific American, August 36. Norton BG (ed) (1986) The preservation of species. The value of biological diversity. Princeton University Press, Princeton 37. Pauly D, Watson R (2003) Counting the Last Fish. Scien tific American, June 38. Pimm SL, Jenkins C (2005) Sustaining the Variety of Life. Scientific American, August 39. Porritt J (2000) Playing Safe. Science and the Environ ment. Thames & Hudson, New York 40. Power ME, Tilman D, Estes JA, Menge BA (1996) Chal lenges in the quest for keystones. Bioscience 46:609620 41. Primack RB, Ros JD (2002) Introducción a la biología de la conservación. Ariel, Barcelona 42. Repetto R (1992) Accounting for Environmental Assets. Scientific American, June 43. Rey JM (2009) La rareza de las especies. Investigación y ciencia 392:62-69 44. Romero J (2004) Posidònia: els prats del fons del mar. Ajuntament de Badalona, Badalona 45. Ros JD (1994) La salud del mar Mediterráneo. Investi gación y ciencia 215:66-75 46. Ros JD (1995) La nostra ecologia de cada dia. Curial, Barcelona 47. Ros JD (1997) Trossos de natura inacabats. La Magrana, Barcelona 48. Ros JD (1999) La extinción de especies. In: Novo M (ed) Los desafíos ambientales. Reflexiones y propuestas para un futuro sostenible. UNESCO. Universitas, Madrid, pp. 271-301 49. Ros JD (1999) Rots de vaca i pets de formiga. Reflexions sobre medi ambient. Thassàlia, Barcelona 50. Ros JD (2001) La natura marradeja. Rubes, Barcelona 51. Ros JD (2001) Vora el mar broix. Problemàtica ambiental del litoral mediterrani. Empúries, Barcelona 52. Ros JD (2002) ¿Para qué sirve la biodiversidad marina? In: Catalán M (ed) Océanos III Milenio. Libro de ponèn cies. FOMAR, Madrid, pp. 43-52 53. Ros JD (2002) Seguimiento ecológico de reservas mari nas: objetivos, metodología y resultados de una década de estudio de las islas Medes (Girona). In: Castell C, Hernández J, Melero J (eds) La investigación y el segui miento en los espacios naturales protegidos del siglo XXI.

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54. 55. 56. 57.

58.

Monografies, 34, Diputació de Barcelona, pp. 51-58, 108-113 Ros JD (2004) El segle de l’ecologia. Bromera, Alzira Ros JD (2007) L’altra meitat del medi ambient. Almuzara, Cordova Safina C (1995) The World’s Imperiled Fish. Scientific American, November Terradas J, Prat N, Escarré A, Margalef R (eds) (1989) Sistemes naturals. In: Folch R (ed) Història Natural dels Països Catalans, XIV. Enciclopèdia Catalana, Barcelona Vilà M (2001) Causes i conseqüències de les invasions biològiques. In: Castells E, Terrades J (eds) Aula d’Ecolo gia. Cicles de conferències 1999 i 2000. Ajuntament de Barcelona i Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barce lona, pp. 131-135

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59. Vilà M, Rodà F, Ros JD (eds) (2004) Jornades sobre Bio diversitat i Conservació Biològica. Seminar on Biodiversi ty and Biological Conservation. Institut d’Estudis Cata lans, Barcelona 60. VVAA (2004) Biodiversidad. Prensa Científica Barcelona 61. VVAA (2010) Conservación de la biodiversidad. Prensa Científica Barcelona 62. Wasser SK, Clark B, Laurie C (2009) The Ivory Trail. Sci entific American, July:32-39 63. Wilson EO (1992) The Diversity of Life. Penguin, London 64. Wilson EO (2002) The Future of Life. Random House, New York 65. Wilson EO (2006) The Creation. An appeal to Save the Life on Earth. WW Norton, New York

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CONTRIBUTIONS to SCIENCE, 7 (1): 45–49 (2011) Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona DOI: 10.2436/20.7010.01.107 ISSN: 1575-6343 www.cat-science.cat

Celebration of Earth Day at the Institute for Catalan Studies, 2010

Where do we stand on global warming? * Raymond S. Bradley Climate System Research Center, Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst

Resum. Les temperatures globals han augmentat aproxima dament 0,8°C des del final del segle xix. Aquest creixement no ha estat lineal, atès que hi ha hagut èpoques en què les tempe ratures es mantenien estables durant un breu període de temps, abans de tornar a augmentar. Les raons d’aquests canvis en l’índex d’augment de la temperatura estan relaciona des amb factors antropogènics (contaminació d’aerosols de sulfat enfront de l’entrada de gasos de l’efecte hivernacle en la atmosfera) i amb factors naturals (erupcions volcàniques, vari acions de la irradiació solar, les fluctuacions d’El Niño-Oscil· lació del Sud —ENSO—, etcètera). Al llarg de l’ultima dècada, les temperatures no han augmentat en la mateixa proporció que ho van fer en les dècades anteriors; i això ha conduït a es pecular que el canvi climàtic ha finalitzat. Aquesta visió s’ha reforçat per l’hivern inusualment fred que s’ha viscut fa mesos en molts llocs dels Estats Units i l’oest d’Europa. Tanmateix, aquesta conclusió es prematura. L’hivern 2009-2010 va ser un dels mes càlids registrats a escala global, i l’última dècada va ser la més calorosa des de fa segles. Malgrat aquests fets, molts polítics que no són favorables als controls de les emissi ons de carboni han aprofitat les condicions actuals per presen tar al públic una visió unilateral de la situació. Aquest esforç ha rebut el suport d’una campanya incessant per a trobar i donar publicitat a uns quants errors en el quart informe d’avaluació del Grup Intergovernamental d’Experts sobre el Canvi Climàtic (GIECC), amb l’objectiu d’afeblir la confiança pública en les conclusions principals d’aquest informe. No obstant això, mentre es manté la discussió política, els nivells de diòxid de carboni i d’altres gasos de l’efecte hivernacle en l’atmosfera continuen creixent, s’acumula més escalfor als oceans, el nivell del mar augmenta al mateix temps que les glaceres i els cas quets polars es fonen, i els indicadors fenològics de moltes re gions mostren pertorbacions en l’estacionalitat de l’activitat bi ològica. I mentre es produeixen aquests canvis, la població mundial continua augmentant en una proporció d’unes 240.000 persones per dia, moltes de les quals es convertiran

Abstract. Global temperatures have risen by ~0.8°C since the end of the 19th century. This increase has not been linear, as there have been periods when temperatures were stable for short periods before rising once again. The reasons for these changes in the rate of temperature rise are related to anthropo genic factors (sulphate aerosol pollution versus greenhouse gas inputs to the atmosphere) as well as to natural factors (vol canic eruptions, solar irradiance variations, El Niño/Southern Oscillation [ENSO] fluctuations, etc). Over the last decade or so, temperatures have not risen at the same rate as in previous decades, and this has led to speculation that global warming is over. This view has been reinforced by the unusually cold win ter that many parts of the United States and western Europe experienced in recent months. However, such a conclusion is premature. The winter of 2009–2010 was one of the warmest on record when the entire globe is considered, and the last decade was the warmest, globally, for many centuries. In spite of these facts, many politicians who do not favor controls on carbon emissions have seized upon the recent conditions to present a one-sided view of the situation to the public. This ef fort has been reinforced by a relentless campaign to find and publicize a few errors in the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli mate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report, to shake the public’s confidence in that Report’s main conclusions. Never theless, while the political bickering goes on, the levels of car bon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to increase, more heat accumulates in the oceans, sea-level keeps rising as glaciers and ice caps melt, and phe nological indicators from many regions demonstrate disrup tions to the seasonality of biological activity. And as these changes occur, world population keeps increasing, at a rate of ~240,000 people per day, most of whom will grow up to be subsistence or small-scale agriculturalists, who will be just as vulnerable to climatic anomalies as late prehistoric/early histor ic societies were. Climatologists, and other environmental sci entists have a responsibility to ensure that the public, and the

* Based on the lecture given by the author at the Institute for Catalan Studies, Barcelona, on 29 April 2010 for the celebration of Earth Day at the IEC (2a Jornada de Sostenibilitat i Canvi Climàtic). Correspondence: R.S. Bradley, Climate System Research Center, Dept. of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA. Tel. +1-4135452120. Fax +1-4135451200. E-mail: rbra dley@geo.umass.edu

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en agricultors de subsistència o a petita escala, i seran tan vul nerables a les anomalies climàtiques com ho van ser les prime res societats històriques o les del final de la prehistòria. Per tant, climatòlegs i altres científics del medi ambient tenen la responsabilitat d’assegurar que la ciutadania i els polítics que ells elegeixen entenen plenament aquests temes, i així podran valorar millor les conseqüències de la passivitat en el control de les emissions de gasos d’efecte hivernacle.

Bradley

politicians they elect, fully understand these issues so that they can better appreciate the consequences of inaction over con trolling greenhouse gas emissions. Keywords: global warming ∙ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ∙ Arctic Oscillation ∙ levels of greenhouse gasses ∙ phenological changes

Paraules clau: escalfament global ∙ Grup Intergovernamental d’Experts sobre el Canvi Climàtic (IPCC) ∙ oscil·lació àrtica ∙ nivells dels gasos d’efecte hivernacle ∙ canvis fenològics

Changes in the public perception of global warming Western Europe and the eastern United States experienced an unusually cold winter in 2009–2010, with record snowfall in some areas. Snowstorms paralyzed Washington D.C. and New York in January 2010, and exceptionally cold and windy conditions in parts of Europe brought transportation systems to a halt on several occasions in January and February 2010. To many people in these regions, suffering through a long hard winter, the idea that global warming is a problem seemed farfetched and absurd. This loss of confidence in scientific procla mations was exacerbated by the theft and publication of pri vate emails between scientists at the University of East Anglia and elsewhere, which—taken out of context—were easily mis interpreted to make it seem like scientific data had been ma nipulated to exaggerate the issue of global warming. Further more, a few minor errors in reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) only added to the public un certainty over climate science. Sensing a controversy, the me dia amplified these concerns and exaggerated the significance of the e-mails and the IPCC errors, so the public was under standably confused. It was cold and snowy outside, and scien tists appeared to have been less than honest with the facts. Not surprisingly, public opinion polls in North America and Eu rope showed a steady decline in the number of people who considered that global warming was an important issue for their governments to deal with. The exceptionally cold and snowy winter in Europe and parts of the eastern United States was related to a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO). When the AO is in its negative mode, cold air is advected into both regions, and in December 2009–February 2010 the AO was persistently in one of the most extreme negative modes observed over the last 60 years, leading to severe winter weather conditions. But for al most all other parts of the world, the winter of 2009–2010 was warm and so average winter temperature for the globe as a whole was actually the second highest recorded in the last 150 years of instrumental records (Fig. 1) [3] and this trend has con tinued (through May 2010). For the last 10–15 years, there have been a succession of record-breaking temperatures; paleoclimatic reconstructions indicate that the most recent

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decade has been the warmest for well over a millennium [8,13]. So, the public perception in Europe and the US, that “global warming is over,” is clearly misplaced as there has been no change in the overall global warming trend. Furthermore, sev eral inquiries into the leaked e-mails have shown that there was no falsification of data, and although there were a few errors in the ~3000-page IPCC reports, none of them had any signifi cant effect on the overall conclusion that, “most of the ob served increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [defined as >90% probability] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases” [19]. Thus, global warming is still a real and pressing problem, notwithstanding the decline in public confidence. How can we be confident that the observed warming is due to human activity (i.e. anthropogenic) rather than merely a nat ural climate variation? The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now ~390 ppmv (parts per million by vol ume) compared to ~280 ppmv at the beginning of the industrial revolution. This increase is directly the result of the combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal, oil and natural gas) and a large re duction in carbon ‘sinks’ (principally tropical forests). There are several factors that have led most climate scientists to agree with the statement of the IPCC, that the rise in global tempera tures can be directly linked to the rise in greenhouse gases. First, the role of carbon dioxide (and other so-called green

Fig. 1. Winter 2009–2010 (December–February) mean temperature anomalies, relative to 1951–1980 averages. Overall global mean anomaly was +0.68°C Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

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Fig. 2. Change in length and surface area of 10 tropical Andean glaciers from Ecuador (Antizana 15a and 15b), Peru (Yanamarey, Broggi, Pastoruri, Uruashraju, Cajap) and Bolivia (Zongo, Charquini-S, Chacaltaya) between 1930 and 2005 [23].

house gases, such as methane, CH4, and nitrous oxide, N2O) in the Earth’s energy balance is well understood. These gases are transparent to incoming solar radiation, but play a crucial role in absorbing radiation emitted by the Earth, thereby raising the temperature of the lower atmosphere. More than a century ago, Arrhenius calculated that the temperature of the Earth would rise if carbon dioxide levels were higher [25]; thus, there is a clear physical basis for global warming due to a rise in greenhouse gases. The important issue is how much will the Earth warm for a given increase in CO2? This is complicated because it depends on many feedbacks, both positive and negative, within the climate system. For example, warming will increase evaporation from the oceans and, since water vapor is a greenhouse gas too, this might be expected to enhance warming. But as water vapor increases, so too do clouds, and these might then reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface, thereby compensating for the effect of higher CO2 levels. In polar regions, higher temperatures may lead to a reduction in sea-ice and snow cover, causing a de cline in surface reflectivity (albedo) which would lead to more energy being absorbed at the Earth’s surface, thus amplifying the warming trend. These are just a few examples of the com plex interactions that occur as greenhouse gas concentrations rise, and warming occurs. However, this complexity does have some benefits because the pattern of warming—temporal, ge ographical, seasonal—as well as its distribution with elevation in the atmosphere, provides a unique fingerprint. This has been determined by comparing the simulations of global climate models that have different levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. These models (which incorporate all the complex interactions between components of the climate system) indicate that greenhouse gases result in more warming at higher latitudes (related to the decline in snow and ice), more warming in spring, and enhanced warming at higher elevations in the Tropics (compared to the surface) due to the release of latent heat from higher amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere. These pat terns can be examined in observational data to determine if the ‘CO2 signal’ has been detected, and indeed there is compelling evidence to show that this is true [4,17]. Furthermore, model

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simulations with only natural factors driving changes in the Earth’s energy balance (principally aerosols from explosive vol canic eruptions and small changes in solar radiation) are una ble to reproduce the observed changes in global temperature over the last 50 years. It is only when simulations with the same models are repeated, but adding the measured rate of CO2 in crease in the atmosphere, that the observed record of tem perature change is obtained. Thus, there are multiple lines of evidence to support the argument that greenhouse gases (principally CO2) are affecting global temperatures to a much greater extent than can be explained by any natural factor, and the overall patterns of change are just as one would expect from both theoretical considerations, and from model simula tions.

What effect has the warming of recent decades had on the environment? Some of the most visible changes have occurred in the cryo sphere (the areas covered by snow and ice). In the Arctic, per mafrost has been thawing as ground temperatures rise [15], and there has been a steady decline in the extent and mean thickness of sea ice at the end of each summer [20]. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, August sea-ice extent averaged around 8M km2 whereas over the last few years it has been ~6M km2, and much of the ice is now thinner ‘first-year’ ice, rather than the thicker ‘multi-year’ ice that was more common in the 1970s. In virtually all mountain regions, glaciers have re ceded rapidly, but recession has been particularly rapid in the Tropics. In Colombia, for example, the area of glaciers in the high mountains declined from ~10km2 in the 1940s to < 4km2 by the first decade of the 21st century. Ice cover on Cotopaxi, Ecuador, declined by 30% from 1976–1997 and these losses have continued [6]. Similar glacier recession has occurred throughout South America (Fig. 2) and this has serious implica tions for water resources and hydroelectric power production in many areas [22,24]. Other environmental effects include widespread phenological changes, with particular effects on

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insects, birds and flowering plants [16]. Rising temperatures have also led to thermal expansion of ocean waters, causing global sea-level to rise. This effect has been exacerbated by the melting of glaciers and ice sheets, so that the rate of sealevel rise has been increasing [23]. How will climate change in the future if the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (and other greenhouse gas es) continues to increase? This question is difficult to answer, mainly because there are huge uncertainties in what the pat tern of global energy consumption will be in the future. This is closely linked to global population levels, and to the overall standard of living of societies, particularly those in the develop ing world. Fossil fuel use is rising most rapidly in China, India and other emerging economies, but the extent to which they adopt renewable energy technologies will have a big impact on their long-term fossil fuel consumption. And, of course, this is also true in the more developed economies, where fossil fuel use is already the highest per capita. The rate of loss of tropical forests, particularly in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, in Equa torial Africa and in Amazonia, also pose difficult questions. As these important sinks of CO2 decline, more of the fossil fuel be ing consumed will remain in the atmosphere. Because of these large uncertainties, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change developed a range of possible future energy use sce narios, based on different assumptions about population growth rates, energy technologies adopted, land use patterns, etc. These provided a set of projections about how CO2 emis sions might evolve through the 21st century, which could then be used to drive global climate models [12]. These future states can then be compared with baseline simulations, using current CO2 levels as a reference to determine how the climate might be expected to change in future decades [10]. In all of the scenarios, even those in which CO2 emissions eventually decline later in the century, CO2 levels in the atmos phere at the end of the century are higher than today. This is because the rate of removal of carbon dioxide from the atmos phere (by terrestrial plants and by the oceans) is slower than the rate of emissions, and so without significant reductions in CO2, beginning very soon, a future of much higher CO2 levels is almost certain [1]. Given that CO2 levels today (390 ppmv) are already higher than at any time in (at least) the last 850,000 years (based on gas bubbles trapped in ice cores from Antarc tica) [7], the implications of much higher, sustained levels of CO2 for ecosystems that are not accustomed to such condi tions is a matter of serious concern, quite apart from any pos sible changes in climate. Climate models provide guidance as to how future climates will develop under these higher levels of greenhouse gases. All future climate scenarios indicate significant global warming, to levels far beyond those experienced over the last millennium (Fig. 3) [14]. This will result in an increase in extremes, making exceptionally warm conditions (such as those experienced in western Europe in August 2003) more common events [11,18]. The shift towards higher temperatures will be accompanied by changes in atmospheric circulation, which will alter rainfall pat terns across the globe. Furthermore, rising ocean tempera tures and melting glaciers and ice sheets will cause global sea-

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Bradley

level to rise by ~1m, perhaps more, by 2100 [23]. Currently, more than 100M people live in coastal areas that are within 1m of present sea-level. All of these changes will play out in a world where the population is expected to increase by 50%, to ~9M people, by ~2070 [21]. Clearly, this will impose significant stress es on many societies where poverty is endemic and conditions are marginal for life. Such stresses have important moral implica tions for more affluent societies, as well as more pragmatic se curity concerns [2]. In summary, global warming is real and is driven by anthro pogenic activities, involving fossil fuel combustion and defor estation. Short-term weather anomalies may occur, but these have no significance in terms of the long-term warming trend, which continues. Public perceptions of global warming have been influenced by this misunderstanding, and fueled by me dia exaggerations of a few inconsequential errors in the IPCC reports, and misinterpreted e-mail communications between scientists. Meanwhile, global warming continues apace, with temperatures in the last 12 months reaching record-breaking levels. Model simulations of future climate, under a range of plausible economic and environmental scenarios, all point to an acceleration of the warming trend, with all of its environ mental consequences, unless the relentless rise in greenhouse gas levels can be curtailed. Scientists have a responsibility to clearly communicate this information to the general public and to government officials so that policies may be adopted to ad dress the negative consequences of anthropogenic climate changes.

Fig. 3. A multiproxy reconstruction of mean annual northern hemi sphere temperature [9] plotted with the range of IPCC estimates of fu ture temperature change through 2100 [5]. The uncertainty in the pale oclimate reconstruction is shown as pale grey shading [14].

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References 1.

Archer D (2009) The Long Thaw: How Humans are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth’s Climate. Princeton University Press, 180 pp 2. Campbell KM, Gulledge J, McNeill JR, et al. (2007) The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change. Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC, 119 pp 3. Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Lo K (2010) Global surface temperature change. Rev Geophys 48:RG4004. doi:10.1029/2010RG000345 4. Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW, Braconnot P, et al. (2007) Under standing and Attributing Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Solomon S, et al. (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 663-745 5. Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Xiaosu D (eds) (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contributions of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 881 pp 6. Jordan E, Ungerechts L, Cáceres B, Peñafiel A, Francou B (2005) Estimation by photogrammetry of the glacier re cession on the Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador) between 1956 and 1997. Hydrolog Sci J 50.6:949-961 7. Lüthi D, Le Floch M, Bereiter B, et al. (2008) High-resolu tion carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000800,000 years before present. Nature 453:379-382 8. Mann ME, Zhang Z, Hughes MK, Bradley RS, Miller S, Rutherford S, Ni F (2008) Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 105:13252-13257 9. Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1999) Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: in ferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophysl Res Lett 26:759-762 10. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, et al. (2007) Global climate projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physi cal Science Basis. S Solomon, et al. (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 747-843 11. Meehl GA, Tebaldi C (2004) More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Sci ence 305:994-997

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12. Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) (2000) Emissions Scenari os. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 70 pp 13. National Research Council (2004) Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years. The National Academies Press, Washington D.C., 141pp 14. Oldfield F, Alverson K (2003) The societal relevance of paleoenvironmental research. In: Paleoclimate, Global Change and the Future. Alverson KD, et al. (eds). Spring er, Berlin, pp 1-11 15. Payette S, Delwaide A, Caccianiga M, Beauchemin M (2004) Accelerated thawing of subarctic peatland perma frost over the last 50 years. Geophys Res Lett 31:L18208. doi:10.1029/2004GL020358 16. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on ani mals and plants. Nature 421:57-60 17. Santer BD, Wigley TML, Simmons AJ, et al. (2004) Identi fication of anthropogenic climate change using a second generation reanalysis. J Geophys Res 109. doi:10.1029:/2004JD005075 18. Schär C, Vidale PL, Lüthi D, Frei C, Häberli C, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C (2004) The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427:332-336 19. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Av eryt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 996 pp 20. Stroeve J, Holland MM, Meier W, Scambos T, Serreze M (2007) Arctic sea ice decline: faster than forecast. Geo phys Res Lett 34:L09501. doi:10.1029/2007GL029703 21. United Nations (2004) World Population to 2300. Dept of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York 22. Vergara W, Deeb A, Valencia A, Bradley RS, Francou B, Zarzar A, Grunwaldt A, Haeussling S (2007) The econom ic impacts of rapid glacier retreat in the Andes. EOS, 88:261-264 23. Vermeer M, Rahmstorf S (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA, 106:2146121462 23. Vuille M, Francou B, Wagnon P, Juen I, Kaser G, Mark BG, Bradley RS (2008) Climate change and tropical An dean glaciers—past, present and future. Earth Sci Rev 89:79-96. doi:10.1016/j.earscirev/2008.04.002 24. Weart S (2008) The Discovery of Global Warming. Har vard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 240 pp

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focus

CONTRIBUTIONS to SCIENCE, 7 (1): 51–55 (2011) Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona DOI: 10.2436/20.7010.01.108 ISSN: 1575-6343 www.cat-science.cat

Celebration of Earth Day at the Institute for Catalan Studies, 2010

The immediate future: Challenges and scales * Ramon Folch 1, 2 1. ERF, Gestió i Comunicació Ambiental S.L., Barcelona 2. Biological Sciences Section, Institute for Catalan Studies, Barcelona

Resum. Les noticies emmascaren la informació i l’excés d’in formació sense jerarquitzar dificulta el coneixement. La socie tat de la informació no ens porta a la societat del coneixement; i sense coneixement no hi pot haver projecte. Això és inquie tant en moments de crisi de model, i d’aquí ve la necessitat de destriar els reptes categòrics de les alarmes anecdòtiques i d’ubicar-ho tot plegat en una matriu topològicament i escalar ment adequada. Que és i que no és un repte, segons el bon criteri sostenibilista? Alguns dels reptes més destacats, i als quals caldria prestar realment atenció, son: el canvi climàtic, l’esgotament energètic, l’erosió genètica, les consecucions de la bioenginyeria, l’explosió demogràfica i les migracions, la glo balització econòmica, les deslocalitzacions o migracions in dustrials, la configuració de la societat del coneixement, la crei xent banalització de la cultura o l’auge dels fonamentalismes; en definitiva, l’esgotament del model industrial que ha presidit el pensament —l’occidental, si mes no— en els darrers dos segles. La dimensió escalar, en l’espai o en el temps, es dife rent per a cada una d’aquestes qüestions. A la dificultat d’iden tificar-les i jerarquitzar-les, s’hi afegeix la d’escalar-les conve nientment: quina dimensió i transcendència espacials tenen i en quin moment temporal s’expressen. La bona gestió de les diferents escales dels diferents reptes es un repte en ella ma teixa, potser el mes gran de tots.

Abstract. The media obscures information, and a surplus of information with no hierarchy hinders knowledge. The Informa tion Society is not leading us to the Knowledge Society, and without knowledge there can be no future planning. This is dis turbing at a time of crisis; hence the need to distinguish cate gorical challenges from anecdotal alarms and to place all infor mation within a matrix with the appropriate topology and scale. What is and is not a challenge, using a sound sustainability cri terion? Some of the most important challenges, and the ones which truly deserve our attention, are climate change, energy depletion, genetic erosion, the consequences of bioengineer ing, the demographic explosion and migrations, economic glo balization, outsourcing or industrial migration, the shaping of the Knowledge Society, the rising banalization of culture, and the rise in fundamentalisms; in short, the exhaustion of the industrial model that has prevailed in thinking—at least Western think ing—over the 19th and 20th centuries. The scalar dimension, in space or in time, is different for each of these matters. The diffi culty of identifying either one and of placing both within a hierar chy is accentuated by the challenge of scaling them properly: Which dimension and spatial transcendence do the challenges have? And at what moment in time are they expressed? Sound management of the different scales of the different challenges is a challenge in itself, perhaps the greatest of all.

Paraules clau: dimensions escalars · reptes categòrics · societat del coneixement · relació cost-eficàcia · eficiència · valor dels serveis socio-ambientals · sostenibilitat global

Keywords: scalar levels · categorical challenges · knowledge society · cost-efficacy ratio · efficiency · value of socioenvironmental services · global sustainability

The media obscures information, and a surplus of information with no hierarchy hinders knowledge. The Information Society is not leading us to the Knowledge Society, and without knowl edge there can be no future planning. This is disturbing at a time of crisis; hence the need to distinguish categorical chal lenges from anecdotal alarms and to place all information with

in a matrix with the appropriate topology and scale, if we truly want to make headway towards technologically and scientifi cally solid, and socially desirable, sustainability.

* Based on the lecture given by the author at the Institute for Catalan Studies, Barcelona, on 28 April 2010 for the celebration of Earth Day at the IEC (2a Jornada de Sostenibilitat i Canvi Climàtic). Correspondence: R. Folch, ERF, Gestió i Comunicació Ambiental S.L., C/ Balmes 18, 1r 1a, E-08007 Barcelona, Catalonia, EU. Tel. +34933012329. Fax +34-933012321. E-mail: erf@erf.cat

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Scalar levels The scale of a phenomenon reveals not its size but its charac ter. An expanded map is not a floor plan; it is only a large map. Floor plans include details, while maps do not. Driving on the motorway with the floor plan of a flat is futile. This is why we must be aware of the large scale of a map when talking about the territory, and of the small scale of a floor plan when talking

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about the personal sphere. Shifting from one dimension to the other easily and proportionally is crucial for moving conscious ly. The time scale matters, too. Not everything happens at the same time. We laugh quickly but grow slowly. Laughter comes after tears, without the child having grown. Each phenomenon has its tempo. The vast quantity and diversity of challenges that humanity is facing today necessitate the capacity to identify the proper scale for each situation. There is no need to falsely re-scale a given phenomenon so that it does not exceed the dimensions of the territory in ques tion; rather the way to address it should be determined at the supra-territorial scale if this is its real scale. A comprehensive presentation of the different phenomena characterizing a terri tory requires the simultaneous use of different scales, meaning that a given space is fully represented not by a single map or floor plan but by a coherent series. Phenomena on the correct territorial scale should induce equally appropriate sub-phe nomena on the local scale. Environmental variables often need to be evaluated at different scales before a decision is made. In any event, the problem is not improper representation, but a misunderstanding of the phenomena that are improperly repre sented. This distinction is particularly important in the case of human communities with a small qualitative dimension, such as Catalans. Indeed, the modest dimension of Catalonia’s terri tory as a whole, not to mention its small regions or counties, leads us to consider far-ranging questions as if they were phe nomena understandable at much smaller scales. This has highly negative consequences when making planning or man agement decisions. The increasing intersection of different analyses and projec tions often entails working simultaneously with phenomenogi cally different categories, which poses a problem of scale com patibility. As one of many examples, we could cite the case of biological corridors or connectors, which make no sense with out their proper large macro-territorial scale, but which cannot be properly planned unless planning takes place on the medi um or small micro-territorial or even biological scale. Space, therefore, presents a scalar sub-dimension, which means that time, space, and scale must all be taken into account in territo rial planning. Biological corridors, which are perceived as extremely im portant by land planners, are considered irrelevant in the eyes of energy strategists. This is understandable: they operate at different scales. This means that there is also a perceptive scale, regardless of the nature, dimension, or transcendence of a given phenomenon. This is not a minor issue, because per ceptions condition decisions. Here, the media play a crucial role because it triggers perceptions and modifies the perceptive scales of public opinion. In short, regarding the issue of scale, we must consider not only space (dimension) and time but also the societal perception of the phenomena being considered. In a world with globalized news reporting, this has become ex tremely important. To accomplish this, we must be capable of distinguishing the categorical challenges and their real scalar importance from the anecdotal alarms triggered by an errone ous understanding of the scale, or by distorted perception. The difficulty of identifying either one and of placing both within a

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Folch

hierarchy is accentuated by the challenge of scaling them prop erly: Which dimension and spatial transcendence do the chal lenges have? And at what moment in time are they expressed? Sound management of the different scales of the different chal lenges is a challenge in itself, perhaps the greatest of all.

Categorical challenges What is and is not a challenge, using a sound sustainability cri terion? Some of the most important ones, and the ones which truly deserve our attention, are climate change, energy deple tion, genetic erosion, the consequences of bioengineering, the demographic explosion and migrations, economic globaliza tion, outsourcing or industrial migration, the shaping of the Knowledge Society, the rising banalization of culture, and the rise in fundamentalisms; in short, the exhaustion of the indus trial model that has prevailed in thinking—at least Western thinking—over the 19th and 20th centuries. Redundancy is not wealth. A language with many synonyms yet without terms for certain phenomena or with deficient syn tax is not a solid language. What fixes the functioning of the biosphere is not the fact that there are so many species but that it has all those that it needs. Inventories that compile spe cific diversity are not indicative of functional efficiency. Howe ver, the naturalistic tradition, which is more concerned with describing diversity than interpreting its meaning, often be comes stuck on this point. Surely there have been more spe cies that are extinct today than species that are currently alive. When faced with the undeniable wave of extinction for an thropic reasons, our concern should be to improve our func tional knowledge of everything. If wheat runs the risk of extinc tion, it is not the same as an endemic orchid on a Polynesian island running the same risk. Knowledge of biodiversity should run parallel to knowledge of species’ interactions with each other and with their environment and to improvements in our bioengineering skills. Handling genetically modified organisms properly in order to avoid biological conflicts and, equally or even more importantly, socioeconomic conflicts, is also a ma jor challenge. Ecologically speaking, we humans are a pest, an opportun istic species resistant to the defence mechanisms of others, at whose expense we grow quickly and uncontrollably. The prob lem of pests is that they dig their own grave. By expanding at the expense of everything around them, they are eventually decimated and reduced to tiny residual stocks, eager, of course, to begin again. If we humans think intelligently as a species, we would not bow so readily to the general principles of ecology; instead, we would adopt sensible strategies for our interests. Yet we do not. Poised to reach the peak of our epi demic expansion, we are aware of nothing; we think that we govern the system that actually governs us, and we act on in stinct, like any random African locust. For millennia, we have been a marginal species, secondary consumers who barely figured in the global balances, just like the other primates. However, the capacities associated with knowledge have boosted this situation as logarithmically as our accumulation of

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skills has risen logarithmically. Now there are humans stretch ing from the poles to the Equator, exploiting the planet’s entire arc of ecosystems. Our global biomass is modest, equivalent to that of ants, around 300 million tonnes, but there are fewer of us: almost seven billion humans (7 × 109) while the estimated ant population is 10 trillion (1016). That means that there are more than one million ants for every human. Even though there are many more of us than was the case centuries ago (2 billion at the beginning of the 20th century; 1 billion at the start of the 19th century; only an estimated 200 million at the start of the Christian era...), there are really not that many of us: 6.9 billion in 149 million km2 of dry land (46 people per km2). The problem is not so much the number of humans but the rising demands of each human, demands for raw materials, energy, and personal attention (education, healthcare, etc.). A human from a modern industrial society demands up to 20 times more energy than a primitive farmer. This means that, today, the human population, made up of people with many different levels of development and living together, is equivalent to 70 billion zoological humans, perhaps even more. Here the scale is shifting. If all of humanity were at the level of Western development, this figure would double and reveal the true magnitude of the problem we are facing, not to mention the cultural conflict generated by migrations towards the devel oped side, of course. Yet these migrations cannot be objectionable in a world where human rights are recognized. If goods move freely, why shouldn’t people be able to? Nor should it come as a surprise that migrations move towards industry and enterprise. The bio sphere is a globalized system. All the basic codes of living mat ter respond to the same standards, which is why it is possible, for better or for worse, to practice genetic engineering: a bac terial gene can be added to a plant cell that is digestible by an animal, for example. The same carbon, oxygen, hydrogen, ni trogen, phosphorous, potassium, and a handful of other atoms are used to build animals, plants, fungi, bacteria and viruses, and they constantly circulate through the vast carousel of the universal biosphere. There is only one atmosphere, where all emissions languish without knowing who issued them. We hu mans are governed by the same rules. The problem is that instead of a globalization of the econo my, for the time being all we have is a globalization of markets. The market is global, but some of us have Euros while others have currencies that cannot be converted. The benchmark value of money is nullified, and the supposedly regulatory mar kets are captive to practice. All seven billion human beings are not operating under equal conditions. What is even worse, if they did the system could not withstand it, because apart from issues of equity, it fails to consider many physical factors that have become particularly prominent in recent decades for rea sons of scale. In effect, the economic ideas of the 19th and 20th centuries posited that the biophysical matrix was alien to economic proc esses, to the extent that some of its essential components for production (water, soil, the climate, etc.) were free, irrelevant assets. This biased way of seeing reality has supposedly placed the economic system on the sidelines of the biophysical

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environment. However, today more than any time before, these purportedly secondary factors have a vast socio-economic value (climate change, oil and other energy resources, water, forest fires, floods, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, etc.). They are part of the economic reality, and someone is in charge of them, either the public administration (reforestation, sup plies, decontamination, sanitation, etc.) or the private sector (rising cost of manufacturing processes or transport, for exam ple), and this does not even take into account natural and so cial decapitalization (pollution, illnesses, risks, loss of biodiver sity, congestion, etc.). These are all economically relevant factors, yet they do not figure in the balance sheets. We do not have complete, realistic ecological balance sheets that include these items, as they are usually ignored or at best downplayed. The goal should be to include them into our economic accounts, whenever possible through objectifia ble quantifications (tons of CO2 emitted, liters of water con sumed, square meters of land occupied, etc.). Still, we should avoid confusing the economic value of the socio-environmental externalities with a mere monetization of the values. An overall balance sheet should aim not to put a price on things that can not possibly have a price (beauty, happiness, dignity) but to duly appraise those that should have one. The inclusion of the more neglected items, and thus a vision of the economic sys tem from the sustainability vantage point, requires three essen tial factors to be taken into account: the cost-efficacy ratio in monetary, social or socio-environmental terms in the short, mid, and long term; efficiency, or the relationship between the expenditure of resources and the service yielded; and the value of the socio-environmental services, because many services are fundamental for human development and for the function ing of the economic system, though they may be furnished passively as a complement to the productive uses linked to the biophysical systems. This latter consideration is particularly important. Surpass ing the thresholds in the use or depletion of resources, as well as the loss in competitiveness of certain productive activities— such as agriculture or forestry—has led to the abolition of the natural capacity of the past, or at least a decline in its efficacy. For this reason, we should ‘artificially’ assess and, if necessary, put a price on the maintenance and management needed to ensure feasibility (planning, restoration, decontamination, etc.). Including all these factors in our economic accounts is essen tial for taking government decisions that truly aim to guide any economy towards sustainable options. The socio-environmental parameters could be considered according to their use value, which stems directly from the cur rent and future enjoyment of an environmental asset; the stock value, which derives from the fact that an asset exists and will continue to exist regardless of how it is used; the option value, which refers to the willingness to pay to ensure that an environ mental asset remains available for future use; and the quasioption value, which refers to the willingness to pay to ensure that an environmental asset remains available for potential fu ture use. These values should be monetized. There are prece dents (such as the price per ton of CO2 according to the value granted to the emissions market created by the Kyoto Proto

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col), but the majority of times a reference value will have to be based on the costs of reversion (replacement, decontamination, sanitation costs, etc.). The externalities that have not been included in the balance sheets until now may be direct or indirect, and generated across the planet. Therefore, we must prioritize the direct ex ternalities generated and borne in every specific place. Like wise, each economic sector generates environmentally harmful externalities, yet also receives them. For example, farming usu ally pollutes the water and soil with nitrates and pesticides, but it also suffers from a decline in the quality and quantity of water or the loss in arable soil. Therefore, the balance sheet must be determined for each sector in order to avoid double entries. All of this requires an exercise in economic imagination. We need it to combat the current excess of fantasy accounting. Today’s balance sheets are not serious enough. Sustainability tends to internalize the social and economic costs of economic processes and prioritize the added value of work and resourc es over financial sleight-of-hand. To accomplish this requires accurate balance sheets and accounts. In the end, ecology is the economy of ecosystems and economics is the ecology of the productive system. It would seem that the Knowledge Society should facilitate these paradigm transitions. However, this is not so. Mental in ertia and the interests of the powerful minorities weigh more heavily. Knowledge is, in fact, rising, but culture is becoming banalized. Fewer and fewer people know more things, and more people are unaware of the majority of what is known. Perhaps for this reason, too, there is an upsurge in fundamen talism: in view of such a lack of equality and such incompre hensible knowledge, the truths that can and have been re vealed—scant and weak, yet clear—gain followers. Science has more work than ever.

The case of energy and climate change At the latest climate change summit, held in Copenhagen (De cember 2009), the participants barely talked about climate. By now there is clear evidence of the alterations in the atmosphere triggered by the massive dumping of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gasses. They deserve discussion, clarifi cation, and reasonable scientific doubt, as always, but on the socio-environmental scale they are already an established fact. This is why they were barely discussed in Copenhagen. In stead, the meeting’s participants discussed energy, and more precisely the degree of dependence on fossil fuels with which industrialized countries and those on the pathway to industriali zation are willing to live. No agreement was reached because the emerging countries want the same opportunities that the emerged countries did back in their day, or at least to be fairly compensated if this is not to be the case. This is understandable: trying to get the Chinese or Indians to stop dumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere after we Westerners have filled it with this gas (in terms of the green house effect) is not only unreasonable but also cynical. Yet dumping more CO2 into the air would be harmful for everyone.

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Folch

In order to resolve this conflict, we need to think as a species. This would lead us to halt the demographic boom, to contain the demand for fossil fuel, and to redistribute the economic re sources captured during the process of accumulation experi enced in the West during the first phase of industrial civilization. However, it is doubtful whether we will actually do this because we think as individuals, and we have therefore failed to develop and embrace the cultural values that would induce us to adopt this sociologically fraught decision. Forests are not CO2 sinks, as is often claimed, but tempo rary storage places (one exception might be the case of the carbon retained in humic acids). The true carbon sinks are the seams of coal, oil, and natural gas, where millions of tons of them have been stored for millions of years. Hence the prob lem of burning them now, all of a sudden: the atmosphere be comes the new sink, the climatic consequences of which we are so keenly aware. In only two centuries, we have returned to the atmosphere the carbon set in the fossil fuel seams over the course of 100 million years. In the forthcoming decades, we will dump as much again. We have to lower emissions, but we also have to find less pedestrian ways to be rid of all this CO2 than dumping it di rectly into the atmosphere. We extract coal and hydrocarbons (reduced carbon) from the subsoil, we use combustion to re lease the energy retained in its chemical bonds, and we dump the residual gases into the atmosphere (oxidized carbon). It would be sensible to return this waste to the place from which it came. Carbon dioxide, or carbon without associated energy, would then harm no one. A logical solution would be to bury the depleted carbon that we unearthed back when it carried energy in the depleted former oil seams or in deep salty aqui fers. There is no practical way to do this when emissions are diffuse, which is the case of cars, for example. However, we can attempt it when emissions are concentrated, such as at power plants or large industrial facilities. Every kWh generated with natural gas entails the emission of 400 grams of CO2, which is plenty; when generated by coal, it entails 900 grams, which is a lot. However, because of its relative abundance, coal is the fuel used the most often at power plants in China, India, and the rest of the world. Its use is inexorably on the rise. If the CO2 is not confined, the struggle against climate change is lost. In the meantime, beyond the disturbing issue of the climate, the expected availability of fossil fuels is constantly waning. It is difficult to accurately determine the size of the reserves, but it is clear that at least for oil, it can be counted by decades (there is much more natural gas and coal). Deciding what is and is not a real reserve is also difficult. We do not know whether gas hy drates, bituminous schist, and deep underwater deposits are true reserves or not. Nor do we know whether we will truly mas ter nuclear fusion or whether it will remain a chimera. It is best not to talk about hydrogen because it is an energy vector, like electricity, not a primary source of energy (there are no hydro gen seams; it has to be generated by expending energy). Fur thermore, how long would we need to make these resources exploitable? In any event, peak oil and the inability to meet the momentary demand seem to be looming much closer than does harvesting the remaining seams. The immediate challenge

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The immediate future: Challenges and scales

is how we slow down the demand for fossil fuels, even if it is only to hold out until new seams or new resources are available. That is why there is no future without renewable energies. We have to accept this fact. Renewable energies are not a choice; they are a factual need. Humanity has always operated with renewable energy—just like the entire biosphere, it is its way of doing things—and it can operate with it once again in the future. In the meantime, there will have been this wonderful parenthesis of fossil fuels, the shining exception that facilitated the onset of industrial civilization yet also, unfortunately, the first human-induced climate disorder. Nuclear energy, the familiar nuclear fission and the hypothetical nuclear fusion, may alter this wholesale return to renewable energies. If they do not, the 22nd century, or at least the 23rd, will be 100% renewable. But we still have to get there. It is just as blind to deny it as it is to believe that we are already there. We will not live to see it. First, there is still large amounts of fossil energy left (more gas and coal than oil, as mentioned above). Secondly, neither the tech nology nor the productive processes, nor the social skills to totally and suddenly do away with fossil fuels, is ready; it is a question of time scale. Finally, we have not yet developed all the facilities needed to capture and transport free energies. Yes, free, because renewable energies actually do not exist. Energy is neither created nor destroyed; it is simply trans formed. This is a classic principle of physics. It is neither creat ed, nor destroyed, nor renewed (although it does entropically degrade). What is renewed is the onslaught of solar energy that the Earth intercepts every day. This, too, will come to an end, but not for another several million years. Solar energy, then, is the energy that is constantly replaced; it is not renewable en ergy but energy that is renewed on a daily basis, the energy that moves the seas, stirs up the air, and generates the mete orological phenomena that end up being the climate. What is renewed is our ability to capture solar energy, not solar energy itself; solar energy comes once and nevermore. We must also learn to accept this fact. The proportion of free energies captured in our energy mix is already beginning to be considerable. It is quite noteworthy that one-third of the electricity consumed in Spain (at given times, not all day long) comes from wind farms or photovoltaic plants, not to mention classic hydraulic energy. Those who laughed at this possibility ten or fifteen years ago may have ac knowledged their error. At the same time, those who cannot explain why we still burn gas or oil should be more cautious. Between skeptical reactionaries and impatient visionaries there has to be a balanced view, no matter how urgent climate change may be. Confusing desire with instantaneous feasibility is not an advanced attitude, although it is more likeable and useful than just trusting in the past. The issue of energy security also favours capturing free en ergies. It is worth mentioning that the rise in the proportion of renewable energies in the energy mix is in the interest of coun tries with few or no fossil energies. It saves them from onerous imports and improves the security of their energy supply by lowering their dependence on third parties. In unstable interna tional contexts, this extreme is in no way irrelevant. Just think about the incident that occurred a little over a year ago, in

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which the Russian gas supply to Central and Eastern Europe was interrupted in the middle of winter. When we talk about the wisdom of interconnecting energy distribution networks (elec trical networks, gas pipelines), we are thinking about the ability to re-route it in the event of breakdowns but also about interstate conflicts. With free energies captured in situ, this problem is avoided. Cyclical or speculative fluctuations aside, experts agree that the price of fossil fuels will only continue to rise in the forthcom ing decades. In contrast, the capture of free energies will be come increasingly cheap. I am not talking about today’s debat able premiums, which are more financial stimuli than aids for production, but about the spread and cheapening of capture systems, which also tend to converge towards electrical gen eration, the major energy vector of the future. The gradual mi gration from internal combustion engines to electrical propul sion is extremely positive in this sense because it enables us to make better use of the high wind production during night-time hours, when electricity demand is lower. Moreover, the real electric vehicles of the future (not hybrids or conventional vehi cles with their engines switched) will be much lighter and more energy efficient. They will be much lighter because with an en gine at every wheel, as some modern trains have, no transmis sion, gear box, differential or heavy chassis will be needed to hold them. They will be more efficient because an electric en gine performs better than an internal combustion engine. With a considerably lower vehicle weight and greater engine efficien cy, the energy demand per unit of weight transported will drop considerably. But not all renewable energies behave the same. An im proper proportion at any specific time in the transition towards a production system low in carbon could lead to serious mis matches between the capacity to generate energy and the mo mentary demand. What is more, almost all renewable energies end up producing electricity. This is positive as long as the transport system and the lamination of the demand are poised to make the most of the energy generated. That is not yet the case. And we should also add that distributed generation (very small units of self-production or self-capture capable of send ing surpluses to the grid) will enrich the energy model but also make it more complex and different to manage. We are not yet ready for that. This systemic transformation requires gradual preparation, without sudden moves or excess haste, but with out stopping, either. True progress always works that way. In any event, regardless of the nature of the primary source, ultimately the largest users of the energy produced are urban systems, the industry associated with them, and the transport that carries citizens and moves their goods. The decisive ener gy battle will therefore be waged in the cities. When thinking about urban planning and the construction of cities, about transport and industrial and urban or peri-urban activity, we have to move towards the birth of a socioeconomic model that is productively satisfactory, socially equitable, and biospheri cally supportable—beyond simple local environmentalism, it is precisely this ambition for global sustainability. It is not a religion to be preached; it is pro-active, to be built by merging technical and scientific skills and jointly making socioeconomic decisions.

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focus

CONTRIBUTIONS to SCIENCE, 7 (1): 57–64 (2011) Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona DOI: 10.2436/20.7010.01.109 ISSN: 1575-6343 www.cat-science.cat

Celebration of Earth Day at the Institute for Catalan Studies, 2010

Energy from hydrogen. Hydrogen from renewable fuels for portable applications * Jordi Llorca Institute of Energy Technologies (INTE) and Center for Research in NanoEngineering (CRnE), Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona

Resum. L’hidrogen molecular és una font d’energia neta per al medi ambient, però no es troba disponible a la Terra. La refor mació amb vapor de substàncies derivades de la biomassa constitueix una ruta valuosa per a la producció d’hidrogen mole cular, i té l’avantatge que és neutre des del punt de vista del CO2 i que no requereix grans infraestructures per a la seva imple mentació. En aquests moments s’estan desenvolupant catalit zadors per a la reformació selectiva, entre d’altres, de bioalco hols i dimetil èter a hidrogen i diòxid de carboni, tot i que el seu ús en reactors de parets catalítiques per a aplicacions reals en cara no està del tot resolta. D’aquests, els reactors estructurats recoberts d’aerogels són molt prometedors perquè la transfe rència de massa és excel·lent i són capaços de dispersar nano partícules de metalls actius per a la reacció. El comportament d’aquests sistemes millora considerablement quan s’empren en microreactors. Els microreactors basats en micromonòlits de silici en què s’integra la reacció de reformació i l’oxidació selecti va del monòxid de carboni generat són una opció prometedora per a la producció d’hidrogen in situ i sota demanda en les apli cacions portàtils de les piles de combustible.

Summary. Molecular hydrogen is an environmentally clean source of energy, but it is not available on Earth. Steam reform ing of bio-derived compounds represents a valuable route for the generation of molecular hydrogen and has the advantage that it is CO2-neutral and it requires a limited amount of addi tional infrastructure for implementation. At present, suitable catalysts for selective bio-alcohol and dimethyl ether reforming into hydrogen and carbon dioxide are being developed, but their use on structured wall reactors for practical application is still under way. Among them, aerogel-based coated structures appear very promising due to their very high mass transfer rates and their ability to disperse highly active metal nanoparti cles. The performance of these systems improves considera bly by using microreaction technologies. Microreactors based on silicon micromonoliths together with integrated downstream carbon monoxide selective oxidation hold a promising future for the effective on-site and on-demand generation of hydro gen from renewable fuels in portable fuel cell applications. Keywords: energy · hydrogen · catalyst · microreactor

Paraules clau: energia · hidrogen · catalitzador · microreactor

Motivated by fossil fuel depletion, harmful gas emissions from combustion engines, increasing world energy demand and non-homogeneous distribution of energy resources, hydrogen and fuel cells are receiving increasing attention as new tools for the management of energy [19,37]. Excluding nuclear fuels, hydrogen is the most efficient energy source on a weight basis (Table 1). In the same way that electrons serve today as an energy carrier in the form of electric power, hydrogen can also trans port and store energy. A vital distinction, however, is that hy drogen is a chemical, so it is much easier to store than electric

* Based on the lecture given by the author at the Institute for Catalan Studies, Barcelona, on 29 April 2010 for the celebration of Earth Day at the IEC (2a Jornada de Sostenibilitat i Canvi Climàtic). Correspondence: J. Llorca, Institut de Tècniques Energètiques, Uni versitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Campus Sud, Pavelló C (ETSEIB), Av. Diagonal 647, E-08028 Barcelona, Catalonia, EU. Tel +34934011708. Fax +34-934017149. E-mail: jordi.llorca@upc.edu

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ity, allowing more flexibility and autonomy in the management of energy. The energy stored in hydrogen can be efficiently re leased in fuel cells, where hydrogen is oxidized electrochemi cally with oxygen (or air) to yield electricity, water and residual heat (eq. 1), thus offering an environmentally clean way to man age energy (the only byproduct is water!).

H2 + ½ O2 → H2O +  + Q

(1)

However, it should be kept in mind that the generation and transportation of hydrogen, as well as its conversion into elec tricity in fuel cells, require an input of energy that should be evaluated carefully from proper exergy, environmental and economical considerations [17]. That is, depending on the source and procedure employed in the generation of hydrogen and—if required—its storage and transportation, the use of hy drogen as an energy carrier may represent a solely academic exercise or a true technological breakthrough. This includes not only accurate energy balances, but also environmental

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Llorca

Table 1. Energy density of several processes Process

MJ/kg

Hydrogen nuclear fussion

625,000,000

Uranium nuclear fission

88,000,000

Hydrogen combustion

142

Natural gas combustion

Gasoline combustion

Coal combustion

15–33

Wood combustion

6–17

called dry reforming of methane (eq. 5), or its direct decompo sition into hydrogen and solid carbon over appropriate cata lysts (eq. 6) [2].

concerns, safety and cycle life assessments. Recent research advances in nanoscience, catalysis, modeling, and bio-inspired approaches offer exciting new opportunities for addressing challenges for hydrogen and fuel cell technologies.

Where are you, hydrogen? Although hydrogen is the most abundant element in the uni verse [38], it does almost not exist naturally in its molecular form on Earth. Therefore, pure hydrogen must be produced from other hydrogen-containing compounds such as fossil fu els, biomass, or water. Each method for producing hydrogen requires a source of energy, namely, thermal (heat), electrolytic (electricity), or photolytic (light) energy. Today, most hydrogen is produced industrially from the steam reforming of fossil fuels such as natural gas and oil, and from coal through gasification processes [31]. The steam reforming of natural gas takes place in two steps. First, natural gas is cleaned and reacts with steam at high temperatures (>800°C) over a nickel-based catalyst. From this, a mixture of mainly hydrogen and carbon monoxide is obtained (eq. 2). Then, carbon monoxide reacts in a second stage with more steam at a low temperature to produce a mix ture of mainly hydrogen and carbon dioxide (the well known water gas shift reaction, eq. 3). The energy balance of the pro duction of hydrogen by steam reforming can be improved by using a combination of steam and air at the reactor inlet (eq. 4), which may approach an autothermal regime (∆Hreaction~0).

CH4 + H2O → 3 H2 + CO CO + H2O → H2 + CO2 CH4 + ½ O2 + H2O → 3 H2 + CO2

(5) (6)

Of course, the use of fossil sources, although technologi cally solved and well established, cannot be regarded as the best option for the production of hydrogen from a sustainability point of view, and other routes for producing hydrogen have been investigated thoroughly. In fact, one of the main advan tages of using hydrogen as an energy carrier is that it can be produced by a great variety of processes that include almost all forms of energy (Fig. 1). In the long term, only water and bio mass in all its forms can be considered as appropriate raw ma terials for hydrogen production. Hydrogen can be obtained by decomposition of water into oxygen and hydrogen gas by means of an electric current be ing passed through it (eq. 7). In fact, electrolysis of water has been known since 1800, when William Nicholson (1753–1815) and Anthony Carlisle (1768–1840) first demonstrated it in Eng land with the aid of a voltaic pile. Today hydrogen is generated most efficiently from energy usually supplied in the form of heat and electricity through high-temperature electrolysis. Also, wind power is widely used as a renewable power technology for generating electricity. Combining this electricity with water electrolysis, wind can provide hydrogen in an effective way [15]. Moreover, hydrogen can serve as an excellent buffer for excess energy produced in windmills.

H2O +  → H2 + ½ O2

(7)

While nuclear-generated electricity could be used for elec trolysis, too, nuclear heat can be directly applied to split hydro gen from water through thermochemical cycles. Thermochem

(2) (3) (4)

Steam reforming of fossil fuels, however, leads to carbon dioxide emissions that contribute negatively to the atmospheric CO2 balance. One molecule of carbon dioxide is produced for each carbon atom participating in the above reactions. There fore, the production of hydrogen from fossil carbon sources cannot be regarded as environmentally friendly, although it is certainly better than its combustion in combustion engines. For that reason, considerable efforts are directed towards the re forming of natural gas with CO2 instead of steam [9]: the so

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CH4 + CO2 → 2 H2 + 2 CO CH4 → 2 H2 + C

Fig. 1. Routes and sources for producing hydrogen. Given the variety of processes for its production, hydrogen is considered an excellent energy carrier for many applications.

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Contrib. Sci. 7 (1), 2011 59

ical cycles are processes where water is decomposed into hydrogen and oxygen via chemical reactions using intermedi ate compounds that are recycled. There are several hundreds of different thermochemical cycles which have been consid ered for hydrogen generation [1]. Among them, the sulfur-io dine cycle is one of the most widely studied (eqs. 8–10). These processes can be even more efficient than high-temperature electrolysis. Similarly, thermochemical cycles can also be achieved by concentrating solar thermal power.

~850°C H2SO4 → SO2 + H2O + ½ O2 SO2 + I2 + 2 H2O → H2SO4 + 2 HI ~120°C ~450°C 2 HI → I2 + H2

(8) (9) (10)

Photobiological water splitting is another method for pro ducing hydrogen. In this process, hydrogen is produced from water using sunlight and specialized microorganisms, such as several green algae and cyanobacteria. Just as plants produce oxygen during photosynthesis, these microorganisms con sume water and produce hydrogen as a byproduct of their natural metabolic processes. Photocatalytic and photobiologi cal water splitting is in the very early stages of research but of fers long term potential for sustainable hydrogen production with low environmental impact [14]. Biological hydrogen can also be produced in bio-reactors that use waste streams as a feedstock. To sum up, hydrogen can be obtained from water by a variety of processes in a great variety of locations. This means autonomy and adaptability, two key parameters when considering future energy scenarios. Another appealing and sustainable source of hydrogen is biomass in the form of wood residues, non-edible parts of food crops, garbage, etc. Since biomass is renewable and con sumes atmospheric CO2 during growth, it can have a smaller net CO2 impact compared to fossil fuels (Fig. 2). In that context, the catalytic steam reforming of renewable fuels derived from biomass has attracted much attention as an efficient technolo gy for hydrogen production because it provides high hydrogen production yields at reasonable cost [20]. Among several re newable fuels, the use of alcohols (methanol and ethanol) for steam reforming is attractive due to their high volumetric ener gy density, low cost, and easy transportation [22]. Dimethyl ether (DME) is also another promising candidate for reforming technologies [23]. The steam reforming of DME is performed in two consecutive steps; namely the hydrolysis of DME to form methanol over a solid acid catalyst, followed by the steam re forming of methanol. The relatively inert, non-corrosive and non-carcinogenic character of DME may help to promote its practical usage with respect to harmful methanol. The overall reactions for both ethanol and DME steam reforming yield 6 mol H2 per mol of substrate and, more important, half of H2 originates from water (eqs. 11 and 12, respectively).

C2H5OH + 3 H2O → 6 H2 + 2 CO2 (CH3)2O + 3 H2O → 6 H2 + 2 CO2

(11) (12)

In practice, however, the reforming processes are never complete and usually compete with secondary, undesired re

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Fig. 2. The steam reforming of renewable bio-derived substrates is ideally CO2 neutral.

actions, such as decomposition to carbon monoxide and methane, reverse water gas shift, methanation, dehydration and polymerization, carbon deposition, etc. For that reason, the election of an appropriate catalyst is crucial for achieving large H2 yields and long lifetime [39].

Ethanol as a source of hydrogen Bio-ethanol is the most widespread renewable alcohol and, for that reason, the generation of hydrogen through ethanol steam reforming at low temperature is currently being thoroughly in vestigated. Ethanol can be reformed with steam to a hydrogenrich mixture over selected catalysts (eq. 11). Although thermo dynamics predicts that it is possible to obtain complete ethanol conversion at 573 K and 68% H2 on a dry basis, the C-C bond scission involved in the reforming mechanism often requires higher operating temperatures (the reaction is highly endother mic, ΔHo673 = +208.4 kJ/mol), thus favoring side reactions which result in considerably lower hydrogen yield. The steam reforming of ethanol has been extensively studied over catalysts based on Ni, Ni/Cu, Co, and noble metals (mostly Pd, Pt, Rh, and Ru) and has been widely reviewed [18,33,40]. Over noble metals, the reaction proceeds through three steps [20]. First, ethanol decomposes into a mixture of methane, car bon monoxide and hydrogen at a moderate temperature (eq. 13), then CO reacts with steam and transforms into CO2 (eq. 3) and, finally, methane is reformed at high temperature (eqs. 2 and 3). The reaction scheme is totally different over cobalt-based catalysts [24], where ethanol first dehydrogenates into acetalde hyde at low temperature (eq. 14), and then acetaldehyde reacts with steam to yield more hydrogen (eq. 15). The generation of hydrogen from the steam reforming of ethanol over cobalt sys tems has been attained at temperatures as low as 340°C, but the drawback is carbon deposition, which poisons the surface of the catalyst. The addition of alkaline promoters results in a better resistance towards poisoning by carbon deposition [25].

C2H5OH → H2 + CO + CH4 C2H5OH → H2 + C2H4O C2H4O + 3 H2O → 5 H2 + 2 CO2

(13) (14) (15)

Usually, these fundamental studies have been performed over powdered catalyst samples and catalytic pellets, but they

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60 Contrib. Sci. 7 (1), 2011

Fig. 3. Catalytic walls in monolithic (left) and microchannel (right) struc tures.

are definitely not adequate for practical use due to attrition and pressure drop, which may eventually result in dangerous oper ation regimes and low performance. For that reason, catalytic walls are preferred. Among different possible catalytic wall ge ometries, catalytic plates [32] and honeycomb structures [6] are preferred (Fig. 3). These supports are attractive for real ap plication because they offer many advantages in terms of scal ability, efficiency, stability, cost and operation conditions. How ever, the deposition of a catalyst layer over these structures may be difficult and several approaches have been adopted, including direct washcoating, chemical vapor deposition, elec trophoretic techniques, in situ routes, etc. [6,32,34]. Recently, we have reported outstanding results in the steam reforming of ethanol in terms of hydrogen yield, fast activation and fast re sponse in oscillating environments over honeycombs coated with catalytic cobalt-talc nanolayers dispersed in aerogels [11,12,28]. Aerogels are extremely light materials obtained by removing the solvent from gels under supercritical conditions. The result is an open porous material with very high surface area (>600 m2/g) and excellent mass transfer properties that favor the ac cessibility to the catalytically active centers. In addition, talc lay ers delaminate under steam and their structure partially breaks

Llorca

apart by the hydrogen generated during the reaction, resulting in a strong enhancement of exposed catalytic centres (Fig. 4). The aerogel host immobilizes the resulting nanolayers, which typically measure ca. 10×10×2 nm [12] but, at the same time, assures excellent mass transfer and diffusion regimes. This al lows fast response to varying loading environments, such as those encountered in real fuel cell applications. On-board re formers for the generation of hydrogen in mobile applications may benefit from this technology since they can be heated to the reaction temperature in air (i.e. they do not require long ac tivation treatments prior to use) and they are stable under startup/shut-down cycles. However, at the reactor outlet, in addi tion to the hydrogen that is needed to run a mobile fuel cell (i.e. low temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cells, PEM FC), there is also CO2 coming from the reforming process (eq. 11) and minor amounts of other byproducts such as car bon monoxide and methane. It is well known that the electro catalysts of PEMFC become poisoned by carbon monoxide molecules because they bind strongly over the Pt particles of the electrocatalysts. Therefore, the removal of CO from the hy drogen stream down to a few parts per million (ppm) is manda tory. Hydrogen can be easily separated from the rest of mole cules at the reactor outlet by palladium-based membranes (Fig. 5) which, in addition to hydrogen separation, increase the yield of the reaction by the constant removal of H2 from the re action mixture [35]. Alternatively, CO can be abated by catalytic preferential oxidation (eq. 16), whereas a selective catalyst must be used in order to oxidize CO and avoid hydrogen losses.

CO + ½ O2 → CO2

(16)

Towards miniaturization: microreaction technology The range of applications of fuel cells spans from commercially stationary large power plants to automotive and other mobile devices as well as portable electronic gadgets requiring less than 1 Watt electrical output [4]. Market analyses expect port able applications to enjoy widespread market success sooner than automotive or stationary fuel cells. This has moved re searchers to investigate in the development of miniaturized fuel cell systems, including reformers for the on-site generation of hydrogen [21]. At present, portable electronic devices show re markably improved performances, which lead to greater con

Fig. 4. Cobalt talc nanolayers em bedded in an aerogel host act as ex cellent composite materials for the steam reforming of bio-alcohol. Un der reaction, cobalt talc delaminates and metallic nanoparticles develop on the surface.

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Energy from hydrogen. Hydrogen from renewable fuels for portable applications

Fig. 5. Bio-ethanol reformer equipped with catalytic monoliths and a separation membrane selective to hydrogen. The permeate is hydro gen of high purity that can be feed directly into a low-temperature fuel cell for mobile applications.

sumptions of electrical power. Moreover, the tendency to wards miniaturization and the wireless revolution is being restrained by battery life. Fuel cells last much longer than bat teries and do not need to be replaced. Already existing proto types demonstrate that fuel cells about the same size as lithi um-ion batteries pack almost four times as much power [3]. However, fuel cell implementation in handheld electronics could be restrained if hydrogen feeding and/or refueling is not properly solved. Although considerable work has been per formed on hydrogen production via reforming reactions using conventional reactors, the scale reduction required for this market renders their utilization impractical. Furthermore, re forming reactions show strong thermal effects and convention al fixed-bed reactors exhibit poor heat transfer characteristics. Microreactors assess both the problems of moving down the scale and increasing the heat transfer rate by the deposition of the catalyst directly on the reactor walls and the introduction of new manufacture techniques which permit, along with the min iaturization involved, the achievement of remarkable increases in the specific contact area [13]. The small dimensions attained for microchannels and their high reproducibility (Fig. 3) allow for better reaction control by achieving previously inaccessible residence times and flow pattern homogeneity. The success of microreaction technology is well established today since it has proven to provide excellent mass and heat

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transfer properties, as well as uniform flow patterns and resi dence time distributions in many applications [13]. In addition to rapid mass and heat transport, due to large surface area to vol ume ratios, the advantages of microreactors include compact ness and light weight, good structural and thermal stability, and precise control of process conditions with higher product yields. Microreaction technologies enable process intensifica tion because conversion rates are significantly enhanced due to short diffusional distances, resulting in a considerable decrease in the amount of catalyst required with respect to conventional reactors. Also, microreaction technology provides enhanced safe operation in the management of hydrogen-producing re actions because large volumes are avoided, permitting the use of process parameters of otherwise explosive regimes. There fore, microreactors appear as an invaluable technology for boosting the implementation of on-board, on-demand genera tion of hydrogen for portable applications, thus avoiding limita tions imposed by hydrogen storage. Numerous micro-devices for on-site production of hydrogen from methanol steam re forming at 260–450°C have been reported [36], but the high temperatures required for the steam reforming of renewable ethanol has prevented extensive work in this field [26]. Men et al. from the Mainz Institute of Microtechnology (IMM) tested several catalyst formulations based on Ni, Rh, Co, and Ni-Rh for the steam reforming of ethanol in a microchannel re actor (channels 500 mm width and 250 mm depth) [30]. The best results were obtained over Ni-Rh/CeO2, which showed no deactivation during a 100 h catalytic test at 923 K. Casanovas et al. from the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) devel oped a microreactor for the generation of hydrogen from etha nol under an autothermal regime [7]. A two-sided platelet mi croreactor was designed for transferring the heat released during ethanol total catalytic oxidation over a CuMnOx catalyst (∆Ho673= −1262.3 kJ/mol) in one side of the microreactor to the other side, where ethanol steam reforming occurred at low temperature over a CoOx/ZnO catalyst (Fig. 6). The overall effi ciency of the microreactor, determined by comparing the amount of ethanol required in the combustion side for auto thermal operation with the amount dictated by thermodynam ics, and by considering the amount of hydrogen generated with respect to stoichiometry, was about 70%. Görke et al. from the Institute for Micro Process Engineering (Karlsruhe) used a mi crochannel reactor (channels 200 mm width and depth) to pro duce hydrogen by ethanol steam reforming over a Rh/CeO2 catalyst [16]. For temperatures above 898 K, a space time yield Fig. 6. Heat can be transferred effi ciently in microreactors for autother mal operations. For example, etha nol can be catalytically reformed in the microchannels of one side of the microreactor (endothermic process) and combusted (exothermic proc ess) in the other side.

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four times higher than that obtained in conventional reactors was reached. Cai et al. from CNRS and the University of Lyon used a microreactor with channels 500 mm wide and deep, loaded with an Ir/CeO2 catalyst, and hydrogen productivity was found significantly higher than in conventional fixed-bed reac tors, essentially due to better heat and mass transfers [5]. These are pioneering examples reported in the open litera ture concerning the generation of hydrogen from ethanol using microreactor technologies. However, the natural trend in mini aturization of fuel cell systems is being carried out with increas ing difficulty by actual micro-reforming units. To further reduce the hydrogen generation scale while maintaining system effi ciency can hardly be attained by using conventional geometries and/or manufacture techniques of present-day microreactors. Therefore, the development of breakthrough technologies ca pable to provide higher hydrogen generation rates per unit vol ume and, at the same time, enable downscaling is required.

Producing hydrogen in silicon micromonoliths A new turn of the screw in miniaturization of systems for hydro gen production has been accomplished by using silicon micro monoliths with millions of parallel microchannels per square centimeter with a diameter of only ~3–4 μm [8,27]. Such ge ometry is achieved through photo-assisted electrochemical etching in silicon wafers. The parallel channels, with depth/di ameter ratios greater than 65, show spectacular reproducibility and a perfectly cylindrical shape, assuring excellent flow distri bution (Fig. 7). By means of precisely designed methods, the channels walls can be successfully coated with homogeneous thin layers of appropriate catalysts. With the resultant geome try, the specific contact area increases ca. 100 times with re spect to conventional microreactors reaching fabulous values of 106 m2/m3. In-series units of functionalized silicon micromonoliths of 16 mm diameter, with ca. 8×106 channels each, have been tested successfully for ethanol steam reforming under practical oper ating conditions [29]. A parametric sensitivity study regarding operation temperature (400–500°C), feed concentration (liquid, steam-to-carbon = 1.5–6.5) and residence time (3–90 ms) has been performed to find optimal operation windows. Fuel con

Fig. 7. Channel dimensions, specific contact area and catalyst loading of conventional monolithic structures, microreactors, hollow tubes, and silicon micromonoliths. For the generation of hydrogen in portable applications, silicon micromonoliths yield the best performance; they exhibit the highest contact area and lowest catalyst loading.

version, product selectivity, H2 specific production rate and catalyst long-term stability have been evaluated at atmospheric pressure in a specifically conceived microreactor to quantify the reaction performance (Fig. 8). Nearly complete ethanol conversions are achieved for residence times of 70–80 ms. A typical selectivity distribution accounts for 64% H2, 25% CO2, 3% CO, and 7% CH4 with negligible quantities (<1%) of other by-products or intermediates (e.g., acetone, acetaldehyde, ethylene). Specific production rates exceeding 3.2 LN of H2 per ml of liquid fed and cm3 of micromonolith are possible due to the great geometric area of the micromonoliths, which are much higher than those reported for classical microreactors (Fig. 7). Long term tests (24-h non-stop operation) have shown remarkable constancy in selectivity profiles and hydrogen pro ductivity. After more than 250 h operation at realistic conditions no signs of catalyst deactivation have been observed [29].

Fig. 8. Proof of concept of a microreactor containing silicon micromonoliths in-series for the generation of hydrogen from the reforming of bioethanol in small fuel cell application.

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Energy from hydrogen. Hydrogen from renewable fuels for portable applications

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variety of applications in transportation, portable, and station ary power generation. When renewable biomass is used to produce hydrogen, both the primary and secondary forms of energy become re newable and environmentally compatible, resulting in an ideal, clean and permanent energy system. Renewable fuels derived from biomass constitute a potential source of hydrogen. Fur thermore, bio-derived compounds are available everywhere and can be conditioned for catalytic steam reforming processes and are particularly suitable for fuel cell feeding in portable ap plications through microreaction technology. Fig. 9. Scanning electron microscopy image (left) of a transversal sec tion of a SiO2-coated microchannel in a silicon micromonolith covered with a TiO2 layer and gold nanoparticles, visible by transmission elec tron microscopy (right).

In addition to ethanol steam reforming, silicon micromono liths are also very valuable for the purification of hydrogen-rich streams obtained in micro-devices, in particular for CO prefer ential oxidation (eq. 16) which, as discussed above, is manda tory in proton exchange membrane fuel cells. CO oxidation is a strongly exothermic reaction, therefore the ability of a reactor designed to eliminate the heat of reaction from the reaction medium to maintain adequate selectivity levels (i.e. avoid H2 losses) is of crucial importance. The reproducibility achieved on the support geometry and the good thermal conductivity of the silicon matrix itself strongly prevents the formation of local hot spots during CO oxidation and, in addition, nearly isothermal conditions are feasible along with appropriate reaction rates. We have successfully coated silicon micromonoliths with a TiO2 layer via an organometallic route and subsequently an chored gold nanoparticles over the TiO2 support (Fig. 9). The resulting catalytic micromonolith has been tested for the pref erential oxidation of CO in the presence of excess hydrogen in order to simulate reformer outlet streams and excellent per formances have been encountered at the temperature of fuel cell operation [10]. The outstanding efficiency of silicon micro monoliths for the generation of hydrogen from renewable etha nol and its further purification under residence times of the order of milliseconds is remarkable. Summing up, micromonolithic silicon substrates have been successfully implemented for hy drogen production via ethanol steam reforming towards porta ble fuel cell feeding. This novel concept represents a landmark in miniaturization technology in general and in micro-scale en ergy production in particular.

Conclusions Hydrogen is deemed to be a useful energy carrier in the fore seeable future. It can be produced by using a variety of energy sources and it can be efficiently converted into useful energy forms without detrimental environmental effects. Hydrogen can be used as a fuel in internal combustion engines, turbines and jet engines, even more efficiently than fossil fuels. Hydrogen can also be converted directly to electricity in fuel cells, with a

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Acknowledgements Funding from MICINN grant CTQ2009–12520 and from ICREA Academia Program (Autonomous Government of Catalonia) is acknowledged.

References 1.

Abanades S, Charvin P, Flamant G, Neveu P (2006) Screening of water-splitting thermochemical cycles po tentially attractive for hydrogen production by concen trated solar energy. Energy 31:2469-2486 2. Abbas HF, Wan Daud WMA (2010) Hydrogen production by methane decomposition: A review. International Jour nal of Hydrogen Energy 35.3:1160-1190 3. Busby RL (2005) Hydrogen and fuel cells. A comprehen sive guide. PennWell Books, Tulsa 4. Cabot PL (2002) Les piles de combustible com a siste mes electroquímics per a les alternatives energètiques. Revista de la Societat Catalana de Química 3:49-61 5. Cai W, Wang F, van Veen A, Descorme C, Schuurman Y, Shen W, Mirodatos C (2010) Hydrogen production from ethanol steam reforming in a micro-channel reactor. In ternational Journal of Hydrogen Energy 35:1152-1159 6. Casanovas A, de Leitenburg C, Trovarelli A, Llorca J (2008) Catalytic monoliths for ethanol steam reforming. Catalysis Today, 138:187-192 7. Casanovas A, Saint-Gerons M, Griffon F, Llorca J (2008) Autothermal generation of hydrogen from ethanol in a microreactor. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 33:1827-1833 8. Casanovas A, Domínguez M, Ledesma C, Lopez E, Llor ca J (2009) Catalytic walls and micro-devices for generat ing hydrogen by low temperature steam reforming of ethanol. Catalysis Today 143:32-37 9. Courson C, Udron L, Swierczynski D, Petit C, Kienne mann A (2002) Hydrogen production from biomass gasi fication on nickel catalysts, tests for dry reforming of methane. Catalysis Today 76:75-86 10. Divins NJ, López E, Roig M, et al. (2010) A million-chan nel CO-PrOx microreactor on a fingertip for fuel cell ap plication. Chemical Engineering Journal 167:597-602 11. Domínguez M, Taboada E, Molins E, Llorca J (2008)

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CONTRIBUTIONS to SCIENCE, 7 (1): 65–70 (2011) Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona DOI: 10.2436/20.7010.01.110 ISSN: 1575-6343 www.cat-science.cat

focus

Celebration of Earth Day at the Institute for Catalan Studies, 2010

Global climate change in the Spanish media: How the conservative press portrayed Al Gore’s initiative Stefania Gozzer, 1 Martí Domínguez 1, 2 1. Mètode, University of Valencia, Valencia 2. Department of Theory of Languages, Faculty of Philology, Translation, and Communication, University of Valencia, Valencia Resum. Encara que les organitzacions científiques i ecològi ques, ajudades per celebritats com l’exvicepresident dels Es tats Units Al Gore, han aconseguit situar el canvi climàtic en l’ull públic, l’escepticisme cap a la seva existència està cobrant un ritme alarmant en la mesura que, per a moltes persones, ha deixat de ser una prioritat i s’està convertint en un problema secundari, eclipsat per assumptes com la crisi econòmica. En aquest article s’analitza l’impacte de la campanya verda d’Al Gore en els mitjans de comunicació a Espanya. El documental Una veritat incòmoda s’ha convertit en un emblema de la consciència pública sobre el fenomen, però el tractament que va rebre a la premsa espanyola variava d’acord amb la ideolo gia. L’anàlisi mostra que la premsa conservadora a Espanya va tenir una postura escèptica, que va passar d’editorials tímids i articles d’opinió crítics en els diaris més populars, com ABC, El Mundo i La Razón, a les acusacions i als insults ferotges en els més descarats, com Libertad Digital. Paraules clau: Al Gore · canvi climàtic · mitjans de comunicació espanyols · escepticisme climàtic · An Inconvenient Truth (Una veritat incòmoda) · columnistes a Espanya

Climate change and biodiversity Recent decades have witnessed a growing awareness of how important and necessary biodiversity is for humanity to survive. This has been achieved thanks to the efforts of several scientific and ecological organizations and to the growing evidence of how the misuse of natural resources and the lack of a global environmental policy are affecting the life of every citizen on our planet. From the continual decrease in bee populations [24] to the decline of the global phytoplankton population over the past century [17], mankind now struggles to maintain the diversity of ecosystems, species, and the genetic wealth they harbor. De spite such efforts, the irresponsible use we have made of nature has seriously afflicted our planet, and unless urgent measures are taken, we could soon be facing one of the biggest mass ex Correspondence: M. Domínguez, Revista Mètode, Jardí Botànic de la Universitat de Valencia, C/ Quart 80, E-46008 Valencia, EU. Tel.+34963156828. Fax +34-963156826. E-mail: marti.dominguez@uv.es

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Summary. Although scientific and ecological organizations, aided by celebrities like former US vice-president Al Gore, have managed to place climate change in the public eye, skep ticism towards its existence is gathering at an alarming pace to the extent that, for many people, it is no longer a priority and is becoming a secondary problem, eclipsed by issues such as the economic crisis. This article analyzes the impact of Al Gore’s green campaign in the media in Spain. The documen tary An Inconvenient Truth has become an emblem of public awareness of the phenomenon; however, the treatment it re ceived in the Spanish press varied according to ideology. The analysis shows that the conservative press in Spain took a skeptical stance that went from timid editorials and critical opinion articles in the most popular newspapers like ABC, El Mundo and La Razón to fierce accusations and insults in the most brazen ones, like Libertad Digital. Keywords: Al Gore · climate change · Spanish media · climate skepticism · An Inconvenient Truth · Spanish columnists

tinctions ever, which will alter not only our planet’s biodiversity but also certain evolutionary processes. As biologist Norman Myers and paleontologist Andrew H. Knoll warned [21]: “We are thus engaged in by far the largest ‘decision’ ever taken by one human community on the unconsulted behalf of future socie ties.” Nine years later, this decision remains untaken. Evidence of how human activity has diminished a habitat’s biological diversity in the past is manifest in the extinctions oc curring shortly after the arrival of humans in Australia, 50,000 years ago, or in North America, 11,000 years ago [20]. Besides the devastation that uncontrolled agriculture and hunting brought about, the ravages caused by industrialism and sav age urbanization are also taking their toll. Independent studies worldwide have gathered evidence of climate change and its anthropogenic nature, and this has already affected Earth’s bi ota [23]. Its connection with mass extinctions has been postu lated and despite the fact that global quantitative evidence is still lacking, a proportional relationship has been established between continents with a strong climate footprint at the end of

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the Pleistocene and the large number of extinctions during that period [22].

Climate negationism: the Spanish case The United Nations declared 2010 as the International Year of Biodiversity. This shows the importance the issue is acquiring in a global setting and the growing need for political action to be taken to conserve and protect out planet’s biological wealth. Nevertheless, there are still numerous political forces in every country unwilling to assume any human responsibility for cli mate change, and many of them even doubt its existence. In Europe, democratic foundations prevent right-wing parties from freely expressing their objections and skepticism towards climate change. Modern conservative-governed democracies, like France and Germany, have felt obliged to assign important sums of money to ecological policies in order to keep up with the expectations and concerns of public opinion. However, it is in recently established democratic regimes where the actual scale of hostility towards the climate change theory can be fully appreciated. Within this context, Spain seems a suitable ambit in which to study the means and tools used to disseminate doubt among public opinion. The pacific transition from General Franco’s thirty-six-year-long dictatorship to a parliamentary democracy never managed to fully reform the system, since most of the former authorities and members of the imposed government were neither condemned nor removed, nor were they forbid den to continue participating in politics. This could be seen as one of the main reasons why the Spanish population accepts certain types of behavior and attitudes that would be fiercely rejected and criticized in other EU countries. A young and inex perienced democracy, like the one in Spain, has become the perfect setting for climate negationists to spread their disbelief towards global warming in a way that would never be tolerated in other West European societies. Spanish skeptics can insult and affront their foes or those who disagree with them un scathed; without the risk of being perceived as unprofessional by the common citizen. This was revealed in our former article concerning the com memoration of the 200th anniversary of Charles Darwin’s birth in the Spanish press [19]. Our analysis of 11 newspapers dur ing the week of Darwin’s date of birth concluded that the Span ish conservative media still held decisive support for creation ism and constant hostility towards the theory of evolution, which they associated with religious controversy. Given these facts, it is hardly surprising that when Al Gore’s ‘green wave’ reached Spain, skeptics struck back in an ag gressive and uncensored manner. Our present study focuses on the media impact of this reaction. We will discuss how the Spanish press, and especially the right-wing press, reported the former American vice-president’s green campaign, thus re flecting their true ideology, and its significance in terms of in forming the public. This research is based on the newspaper coverage during three periods: the premiere of An Inconvenient Truth in Novem

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Fig. 1. Al Gore receiving the Nobel Peace Prize 2007. Photograph by Kjetil Bjørnsrud.

ber 2006, the announcement that Al Gore was to be awarded the Prince of Asturias Award for International Cooperation in June 2007, and the award ceremony of this prize in October 2007. The latter coincided with the Norwegian Nobel Commit tee’s announcement that Al Gore and the UN Intergovernmen tal Panel on Climate Change were to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. The research focuses on the informative and ar gumentative contents published in the most important national conservative newspapers ABC, El Mundo and La Razón, as well as posted on the media website Libertad Digital. The daily El Mundo maintains a self-defined liberal editorial line, whose main characteristic is its severe criticism towards the current socialist government. Although it is included within the conservative media sphere, the paper has a far more het erogenic range of columnists than other conservative newspa pers, like ABC. The latter is one of the oldest journals published in Spain and is primarily known for its monarchist and tradition alist editorial line. Both newspapers are referred to as Spanish newspapers of reference because of their large readership and the reputation they have managed to build. La Razón is also a monarchist daily and is well-known for its conservative ideolo gy. These three newspapers compete with each other for rightwing press leadership. Libertad Digital is one of the five mostread online newspapers and is also a point of reference for Spanish right-wing parties. Its strength resides in the opinion section, since most of its news consists of a slightly modified version of agency news. It has a large number of contributors, ranging from liberal to neoconservative figures and institutions. The editorial line is even more critical of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s government than ABC, and its editor is a frequent contributor to El Mundo. The results of our study show that informative articles took a different stand from that of argumentative articles in all the newspapers but one. Libertad Digital was the only journal whose opinions, editorials, and information were coherent. It was also the one that published the most articles on the subject, followed by ABC and El Mundo. Argumentative articles were

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Global climate change in the Spanish media: How the conservative press portrayed Al Gore’s initiative

mainly written to criticize Al Gore and his documentary, while the informative ones mostly reported the former US vice-presi dent’s Spanish tour.

Main outcomes: content analysis ABC’s position regarding Al Gore and his ecological discourse was reflected in two editorials devoted to him. The first, entitled “Nobel goes to Environmental Propaganda”, was published on the announcement that the Nobel Peace Prize was to be awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Al Gore. It disagreed with the Norwegian Acade my’s decision of including the latter, holding that his work did not deserve such merit: “Gore’s main merit has been his ability to find a good cause and have the talent to seize the banner, as he had previously tried to do with Internet, of which he proclaimed himself slightly less than creator, and that alone does not warrant award of the Nobel Peace Prize.” [1] The newspaper stresses the importance of interest in pro tecting the environment and the need to raise awareness about global warming. However, it considers that Gore’s ecological discourse bears a political burden and a series of inaccurate and overstated data that prevent the global message from pro viding an answer to the environmental problem. Amongst other things, the paper criticizes the Academy for not taking into ac count the energy waste in the former Senator’s mansion, nor the fact that it was during his term as vice-president of the Unit ed States that the country boycotted the Kyoto Protocol. It fur ther mentions the British judge’s ruling which recognized that the documentary An Inconvenient Truth contained errors. These have become the most frequently repeated arguments by Al Gore’s opponents and appear in most of the texts cov ered by this study. The other editorial dedicated to the American politician was entitled “Environmentalism and Opportunism.” It was written following the uproar caused by statements made by the leader of the opposition, Mariano Rajoy, about climate change, which coincided with Gore’s Spanish tour. On being asked his opin ion on this phenomenon, Rajoy replied that his cousin [2] in Seville had told him that if the top ten scientists were incapable of telling him what the weather would be like in Seville the fol lowing day, it would be just as impossible for them to predict the global climate for the next 300 years. Therefore, Rajoy con cluded, climate change should not be seen as such a serious problem. In the article, the editor excuses the leader of the Partido Popular (People’s Party, PP) and accuses the Left of overreac tion. The newspaper claimed that a political debate on climate change had been sparked, and that the Left was using the ecological speech opportunistically with purely ideological goals. The allusions to the propagandistic use of global warm ing by left-wing parties (both national and international) were constant during the studied periods of publishing. At least four

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journalists used this argument in their opinion articles, but there were many more who concurred on the use of the term progressive in a derogatory manner, to refer to people connected with Gore. The main accusation made in the newspaper’s opinion section against the Left was that it had managed to draw a dogmatic banner from global warming in order to dis tract from the crisis. This crisis, according to an article signed by the former Minister of Industry, Carlos Bustelo, was an ideo logical one: “Because, besides the ideological crisis brought about by the collapse of socialism in the Soviet Union, now comes the dismay of progressivism at the unprecedented growth of the global economy, with 3000 million Asians in the lead... The Left, scared and baffled by the success of the ongoing eco nomic freedom granted by globalization, has intelligently seized climate change as a new refuge, a new cause. Thanks to an institution as discredited as the United Nations and an opportunist politician like Al Gore, the Left trium phantly proclaims it will not surrender and that in the coming years, should it retain power, it will curtail our freedoms, raise taxes and slow economic growth, because climate change demands so.” [3] In its editorial, ABC maintains perfect neutrality with regard to the ideological nature of climate change, accepting the ex istence of the phenomenon and the impact of mankind. How ever, several journalists and other professionals who are in charge of the opinion columns do not share the same degree of conviction. Some doubt the man-made nature of global warming, while others question its existence, their arguments lie in the lack of scientific consensus. Others resort to the changes that have taken place in scientific theories and beliefs throughout history, as the journalist Ignacio Ruiz Quintano did: “In the world of Science, today’s truth is only tomorrow’s lie... Scientifically, the hypothesis of climate change has the same worth as the Y2K hypothesis, which is why an English judge, Judge Burton, educated in the rigor of logical positiv ism, has sent Al Gore packing, given the fact that the Apoc alypse the Nobel Peace Laureate terrifies school children with is not in line with scientific consensus.” [4] For Quintano Ruiz global warming is a hypothesis, as yet unverified, he equates with the fears that existed at the end of the twentieth century concerning potential failures that were forecasted in computer systems with the arrival of the new mil lennium and which ultimately did not cause any major prob lems. Thus, the author implies that the former vice-president was making inflated prophecies, which would not be fulfilled. Al Gore in his role as an environmentalist also failed to convince the newspaper columnists. In all of the articles Gore was ac cused of using climate change as a business tool. The main accusation leveled against the former Senator concerned the lack of consistency between his speech and his private life, al luding to the continued use he makes of his private jet, the high prices he charges for his lectures and the huge energy bill of his

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Tennessee mansion, which is twenty times higher than that of the average American household. El Mundo, in contrast, de voted only one editorial to Gore. The text was written after news broke that the former U.S. Senator was to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, which was considered both expected and appropriate. Unlike ABC, El Mundo believed that despite the ‘possible excesses’ of the documentary An Inconvenient Truth, there was no doubt about the former vice-president’s merit. However, newspaper columnists did not share the editori al’s stance. Although this daily paper devoted less coverage to the former Senator in the opinion section than ABC did, criti cisms were similar. In his column Comentarios liberales (Liberal Comments), journalist Federico Jiménez Losantos, one of the most influential journalists in the eyes of the Spanish Right and also the editor of Libertad Digital, addressed the issue twice in the period of time we studied. In the first article, entitled “Algo radas” [5], Jiménez Losantos criticized the high prices Al Gore charged for his conferences in Spain, which were reported to cost 240,000 euros each. Among other things, the journalist referred to climate change as the ‘latest apocalyptic scam’, ac cusing Gore of creating ‘intellectual pollution’ even greater than that produced by Gore’s copper mines. The wording used in the column was as follows: “Algoradas is a semantic exudation of Al Gore, that guy who wears his armor on the inside, who has led the liberal’s dream to the limit, that enemy of the catechism who—just to contradict himself—is characterized by an inordinate desire for wealth.” [6] In his second article, Jiménez Losantos asserts that climate change is an ‘anti-scientific farce’ and calls for an efficient sub stitution of petroleum not for the well-being of the environment, but rather to lessen Western countries’ dependence on the OPEC. In general, El Mundo published neutral information on Gore’s activities in the country and the opinion section did not pay much attention to him. Even when the subject became a hot issue due, for instance, to the Rajoy statement, less lines were dedicated to the subject than in the other two newspa pers, apart from a few articles in which certain journalists tried to defend and even interpret Rajoy’s words. Compared with the other papers analyzed here, La Razón devoted the least coverage to Al Gore and his message. The paper handled this news issue from a neutral point of view and did not mention the matter in its editorial. Nevertheless, the opinion section contained some columns dealing with Gore’s campaign, stating that the former Senator did not deserve the prize. He was mainly portrayed as a charlatan: “To begin with, Al Gore’s aforementioned documentary, far from being rigorous, is one of the grossest examples of propagandistic manipulation in recent years.” [7] To discredit Gore, the columnists used the inconsistencies between his life and his speech as their main weapon. Journal ist María José Navarro wrote a sarcastic article implying that

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Gore’s message was closer to paranoia than reality. She con cluded that now that Gore had won the Prince of Asturias Award, anyone could: “Now that my Al Gore has been given the Prince of Asturias Award for International Cooperation, I feel myself to be just one step away from the Nobel for Literature. Nobel with a “b”, right?” [8] Libertad Digital, on the other hand, dedicated three editori als to Al Gore. The first was written in response to the news of the American politician as Nobel Peace Prize laureate. It under mined and scorned the prize, proffering the fact that figures like Winston Churchill and King Juan Carlos I had never received it, taken to be clear proof of hypocrisy. The second was pub lished after the Rajoy incident, and tried to defend the conserv ative leader by accusing the Left of opportunistic environmen talism. The third editorial was a response to an article published by El País, a much-read left-wing Spanish pro-European news paper, about climate change negationism in the Spanish mass media, and that referred to Libertad Digital’s reaction by com paring itself with Galileo Galilei being judged by the Church for his scientific discoveries. The shameful scene of Galileo’s re traction has haunted the Catholic Church for centuries, remain ing in history as a reminder of its intolerant, arrogant, and ag gressive attitude towards Science in the past. Libertad Digital holds that a similar persecution is currently underway; pinpoint ing those who, like the paper, know that climate change is a farce but are being forced to concede its existence. The main difference between this paper’s editorials and those published by El Mundo and ABC is that Libertad Digital never declared belief in the existence of climate change, quite to the contrary: “Legend has it that, after the Inquisition had made him re tract his belief in the Earth’s movement around the sun, Gal ileo muttered under his breath: ‘Eppur si muove’ (and yet it moves). At this rate, it would almost appear that those of us who express our doubts about the great dogma of progres sive faith will have to bear a similar fate.” [9] Editorials aside, Libertad Digital gave wide coverage to Al Gore during this time. Unlike the other newspapers, however, its informative articles lacked neutrality and objectivity. This could be fully appreciated in headlines like “Al Gore Spreads Chaos in Seville: Andalusia Will Be One of the Most Affected Regions” [10], “Al Gore Continues Cashing Up: Now the Nobel Prize” [11] or “Al Gore Multiplies his Fortune by 50 Thanks to Cli mate Change” [12]. Among the idiosyncrasies of Libertad Digital, it always refers to climate change as ‘the supposed’ climate change. The lack of global scientific consensus on this matter is an argument repeated in most of its articles. In this way the newspaper tries to reinforce the idea that there is unnecessary worry for a phenomenon which most surely does not exist (ac cording to Libertad Digital). Another characteristic of this paper is the constant use of insults by nearly all its columnists. Not only is the Spanish Left derided with terms like progrerío, progretería and ecolojeta [13], but Al Gore himself has been called

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Global climate change in the Spanish media: How the conservative press portrayed Al Gore’s initiative

‘pest’, ‘disease’, ‘lazy rich’ and ‘climate change fundamental ist’ among other things. Columnist Agapito Maestre referred to Gore in one of his articles as follows: “Radical ecologists have exchanged their faith in God for Al Gore’s twaddle. As is well-known, those who stop believing in the true religion are always willing to believe in any old rub bish. That is exactly what is happening with the new funda mentalists that have emerged in the United States, hand in hand with Al Gore. What most of them don’t know is that this figure’s fanaticism recalls Nazi laws in favor of nature.” [14] We find another example of this newspaper’s effrontery in an article signed by the journalist Carlos Semprún Maura con cerning Nicolas Sarkozy’s environmental policies, in which he even dares to use racist language: “… First is the fact of cretin Nicholas Hulot’s having contrib uted to giving publicity to societies’ enemy number one, Al Gore the fraudster, and at a provincial Frog [15] level.” [16] According to Libertad Digital, those who support Al Gore are Lefties, and they are no more than “a toady flock of submis sive acolytes,” as the Strategic Studies Group (Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos, GEES), a Spanish think tank ideologically linked with the opposition party, the People’s Party, defined them in one of the many articles it frequently publishes in the newspaper.

Discussion and conclusion The results of our research show that the Spanish conservative mass media are skeptical regarding climate change but, with the exception of Libertad Digital, they are afraid to express this opinion openly. Daily newspapers that depend on sales and distribution and that have managed to earn prestige and re spect like ABC, El Mundo and La Razón are not willing to run the risks, so they maintain a neutral line and criticize secondary issues in their editorials, but without denying either climate change or its anthropogenic nature. It is in the opinion section where the risks are taken and from which seeds of skepticism are sown. By contrast, Libertad Digital need not care about of fending its readers; its audience comprises those who share its ideology. Since it is an online publication, sales are not an issue and the public that visit the website do so precisely for the ag gressive editorial line it has developed. The main view reflected in the conservative media is that there are more important concerns to worry about in our soci ety than climate change. Even during the years when the Span ish economy was in good shape, columnists called for atten tion to be steered away from the environment and towards economic issues. That is an aim the current crisis has helped them to accomplish, as we will see further on. Even small tem porary incidents, like problems with the Catalan railway sys tem, seemed far more important for these columnists than glo

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bal warming. Not only is the very existence of the phenomenon denied, but its relevance is also scorned and sometimes ridi culed. A characteristic that may shock the foreign reader is the ef frontery the Right displays when it comes to slurring the oppo nent. Insults and rude expressions replace arguments and rea soning in the texts. The opponent’s opinion is not respected and there is no place for debate. A perfect example of this is the personal attack on Al Gore. The link between the conserva tive PP party and George W. Bush’s republicanism remains patent throughout, and the dearth of democratic underpin nings surfaces in the Spanish Right’s effrontery and disrespect. The premiere of the documentary An Inconvenient Truth was a milestone in the popularization of the climate change theory. A great deal had been done before that, but it was not until a political figure as renowned as Al Gore entered the scene that concern for the environment gained the global dimension it has enjoyed for the last four years. However, the intervention of the former democrat candidate not only brought fame and prestige to the cause, but has also politicized the issue, a mat ter that was simplified by Spanish conservatives as follows: “those who don’t believe in climate change on the one hand, and progressives, reds, greens and other left-wingers on the other”. The right-leaning media were not above this conflict. Al though it was the conservative party who signed the Kyoto Protocol during José María Aznar’s term, PP supporters did not appreciate the former opponent of George W. Bush, Az nar’s top ally, advertising the harmful consequences of enter prise that had been making so much profit in PP administra tions. The backlash didn’t seem to have much success then, but today its achievements are undeniable. Polls show that cli mate change skepticism has grown in the West. A BBC survey in February 2010 concluded that only 26% of people in Great Britain believe climate change is happening and that it is manmade [18]. That represents 15% less than those who answered ‘yes’ to the same question in November 2009. Furthermore, the percentage of those who believed climate is not changing and that global warming is not taking place rose from 15 to 25% in the same time period. The mistakes scientists have made in their measurements and predictions have fueled the doubts of public opinion concerning this important and contro versial issue. The current economic crisis has also contributed to climate negationism. A green revolution requires a profound transfor mation of our economic system, and the rise in unemployment and the reduction in social assistance programs are not help ing either. People’s attention has been fully drawn away by the difficult economic situation we are facing, and climate change has taken the backstage until further notice. As time has gone by, those skeptical ideas sown in the pages of right-leaning newspapers have grown into the topic of discussion du jour in bars and cafés. Scientists have claimed that despite the errors made in some environmental studies, the overall conclusion re mains unaltered, i.e., climate change is happening and it is probably driving us towards one of the biggest mass extinc tions in millions of years.

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Notes and References Notes 1. “El principal mérito de Gore ha sido el de saber encontrar una buena causa y tener el talento de hacerse con el estandarte —ya lo había intentado anteriormente con In ternet, del que llegó a proclamarse poco menos que cre ador— y eso solo no amerita un galardón como el Nobel de la Paz.” Editorial, «Nobel a la propaganda ecologista», ABC (13 October 2007) 2. José Javier Brey Abalo, a Physics Professor at the Uni versity of Seville, and cousin of Mariano Rajoy 3. “Porque a la crisis ideológica que provocó el derrumbe del socialismo real en la Unión Soviética se une ahora el desconcierto de la progresía ante el crecimiento sin prec edentes de la economía mundial, con los 3000 millones de asiáticos a la cabeza… La izquierda, asustada y desconcertada ante el éxito de la libertad económica en marcha que supone la globalización, se ha aferrado con habilidad al supuesto cambio climático como un nuevo refugio y una nueva causa. Gracias a una institución tan desprestigiada como la ONU y a un político oportunista como Al Gore, la izquierda nos anuncia triunfante que no se rinde y que en los próximos años, si tiene el poder, recortará nuestras libertades, aumentará los impuestos y frenará el crecimiento económico, porque el cambio climático así lo exige.” Carlos Bustelo, «La izquierda asustada y el cambio climático», ABC (31 October 2007) 4. “En el mundo de la ciencia, la verdad de hoy sólo es la mentira de mañana… Científicamente, la hipótesis del cambio climático tiene el mismo valor que la hipótesis del efecto 2000, razón por la cual un juez inglés, el juez Bur ton, educado en el rigor del positivismo lógico, en vista de que el apocalipsis con que el Nobel de la Paz acojona a los escolares no está en línea con el consenso científi co, ha mandado a Al Gore a hacer gárgaras.” Ignacio Ruiz Quintano, «Sobre si Rajoy sea más tonto que Al Gore», ABC (31 October 2007) 5. A portmanteau of Al Gore and bobadas foolishness.. Edi tor’s note 6. “La algorada es una exudación semántica de Al Gore, ese tipo con la armadura dentro que ha llevado a sus últimas consecuencias el ensueño del progre, ese ser enemigo del catecismo y que, por llevarle la contraria, se caracteri za por un ansia inmoderada de riquezas.” Federico Jiménez Losantos, «Algoradas», El Mundo (26 June 2007) 7. “De entrada, el citado documental de Al Gore, lejos de ser un trabajo riguroso, es uno de los ejemplos más burdos de manipulación propagandística de los últimos años.” César Vidal, «La estafa Gore», La Razón (10 June 2007) 8. “Después de que a Al Gore le hayan atizado el Premio Príncipe de Asturias de Cooperación Internacional, yo me noto a un paso del Nobel de Literatura. Nobel con b, ¿no?” María José Navarro, «Una verdad incómoda», La Razón (8 June 2007) 9. “Dice la leyenda que, tras retractarse ante un tribunal de la Inquisición de que la Tierra girara en torno al Sol, Galileo

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10. 11. 12. 13.

14.

15. 16.

murmuró por lo bajo: “Eppur si muove” (sin embargo, se mueve). A este paso, casi parece que quienes expresa mos nuestras dudas sobre el gran dogma de la fe progre sista vamos a tener que pasar por un trago similar.” Edito rial, «Eppur si muove», Libertad Digital (25 October 2007) “Al Gore siembra el caos en Sevilla: Andalucía será una de las regiones que reciba mayor impacto.” “Al Gore continúa haciendo caja: ahora el Nobel de la Paz.” “Al Gore multiplica por 50 su fortuna al calor del cambio climático.” Both progrerío and progretería are derogatory terms used to refer to those of liberal stance. Ecolojeta is also a pejorative term, but referring to environmentalists “El ecologista radical ha cambiado su creencia en Dios por las imbecilidades de Al Gore. Y es que, como dicen por ahí, quien deja de creer en la verdadera religión está siempre dispuesto a creer cualquier imbecilidad. Eso es exactamente lo que está pasando con el nuevo funda mentalista surgido en Estados Unidos de la mano de Al Gore. Muchos no lo saben, pero el fanatismo de este personaje recuerda las leyes nazis a favor de la naturale za.” Agapito Maestre, «El ecologista radical», Libertad Digital (29 October 2007) The word used by the author was franchute, which is a derogatory term for French people “… El primero es el de haber contribuido a la publicidad del enemigo número 1 de nuestras sociedades, el esta fador Al Gore, y a nivel pueblerino franchute, el cretino de Nicolás Hulot.” Carlos Semprún Maura, «El crimen fue en Grenelle», Libertad Digital (30 October 2007)

References 17. Boyce DG, Lewis MR, Worm B (2010) Global phytoplank ton decline over the past century. Nature 466:591-596 18. Climate skepticism ‘on the rise’ (2010) BBC poll shows. BBC News (February 7) 19. Díez E, Domínguez M, Mateu A (2009) Darwin in the press: What the Spanish dailies said about the 200th an niversary of Charles Darwin’s birth. Contributions to Sci ence 5(2):193-198 20. Kolbert E (2009) The Sixth Extinction. New Yorker, May 19:53 21. Myers N, Knoll AH (2001) The biotic crisis and the future of evolution. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) 98(10):5389-5392 22. Nogué-Bravo D, Ohlemüller R, Persaram B, Araújo MB (2010) Climate Predictors of Late Quaternary Extinctions. Evolution 10:1558-5646 23. Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and Evolutionary Re sponses to Recent Climate Change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 37:637-669 24. van Engelsdorp D, Hayes Jr J, Underwood RM, Pettis JS (2010) A survey of honey bee colony losses in the United States, fall 2008 to spring 2009. Journal of Apicultural Research 49(1):7-14

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CONTRIBUTIONS to SCIENCE, 6 (2): 71–76 (2010) Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona DOI: 10.2436/20.7010.01.111 ISSN: 1575-6343 www.cat-science.cat

forum

Some salmon-colored keywords regarding various aspects of chemistry* Salvador Alegret 1, 2 1. Department of Chemistry, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Bellaterra 2. Science and Technology Section, Institute for Catalan Studies, Barcelona

Memories in Black and White Images Twenty years ago: scientific solidarity In 1990 I met professor Fortunato Sevilla III, professor of Chem istry of the University of Santo Tomas, Manila, at the 1st World Congress on Biosensors, held in Singapore (May 2–4, 1990). We immediately established a solid scientific relationship in the field of chemical sensors. This relationship was based on per sonal friendship and solidarity. The term scientific solidarity or solidarity among scientists is not very common. I see it as a horizontal scientific relationship between peers that is rein forced mutually; it is an attitude rather than a strategy. As you know, the language of science is universal. Scientific knowledge has a global reach. But scientists, laboratories, and universities are of a particular place, from a given city and country. Therefore, in addition to the global dimension of sci ence, we have a local dimension, where scientists can better express and humanize the strength of their scientific relation ships. This strength, this solidarity, has been the cornerstone of twenty years of relations between the University of Santo To mas (UST) and the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), the main focus of which has been research in analytical chem istry, particularly in the area of chemical sensors. The first day: far but near The past twenty years have gone by so quickly. This is why I remember my early visits to UST as though they happened yesterday. I carry these impressions with me. At the time, I was very surprised by them, since they concerned Catalonia, my homeland, and I could not have imagined that Catalonia’s presence would be so evident at the UST campus and its im mediate surroundings.

true meaning of rush hour. I understood what it is to live in a dense Asian capital and I realized that I was a long way from home. We eventually arrived at the oasis of the UST campus. Among the statues atop the main building, to the left, I noticed that there was one of Saint Raymond of Penyafort (Sp. Peña fort). There was also a campus building dedicated to this Cata lan-Dominican friar and lawyer. In my youth, I studied at the school of “Sant Ramon of Penyafort” in Vilafranca del Penedès, not far from Barcelona, which is run by the congregation of Sons of the Holy Family, founded by Father Josep Manyanet. Why was my school named after Saint Raymond of Penyafort? (Fig. 1) Because the birthplace of Saint Raymond is just a few kilom eters from Vilafranca del Penedès. We sometimes went there on school visits. Obviously, with Saint Raymond at the head of the UST campus all the time, I did not feel so far from home! Pere Almató i Ribera (1830–1861). I saw that the list of notable students of the UST included Pere Almató (Sp. Pedro, En. Pe ter). Pere Almató was born in Sant Feliu Sasserra, a village not far from the campus of my university in Barcelona. Pere Almató had wanted to be a Dominican missionary. He was sent to the Philippines, where he graduated in Ecclesiastical Studies from the UST. He was ordained a priest and sent immediately to Vietnam, where he found martyrdom at Hai Duong (Tonkin). He was thirty-one years old. His remains were located years after wards and returned to his hometown (1888), where there is

Raymond of Penyafort (1180–1275). On my first trip from the hotel where I was staying to the university campus, I learnt the

* Based on the lecture given by the author at the University of Santo Tomas, on 31 January 2011, on the occasion of his appointment as Honorary Professor of Chemistry of the University of Santo Tomas, Manila, Philippines. Correspondence: S. Alegret, Grup de Sensors i Biosensors, Departa ment de Química, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, E-08193 Bella terra, Catalonia, EU. Tel. +34- 935811017. Fax +34-935812379. Email: salvador.alegret@uab.cat

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Fig. 1. Saint Raymond of Penyafort, O.P. patron saint of lawyers. His feast day is on 7 January.

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Fig. 4. Images of Our Lady of Montserrat. (A) Twelfth-century sculp ture. Abbey of Montserrat, Catalonia. (B) Abbey of Our Lady of Montserrat, Manila. (C) “La Morenita,” from the Ancheta family. Grand Marian Procession, Intramuros, Manila (2007).

Fig. 2. Saint Pere Almató, O.P., born in Sant Feliu Sasserra (Catalo nia). Missionary in the Philippines and Vietnam, where he was martyred after being beheaded; this is why he is depicted with the palm of mar tyrdom and a scimitar. His feast day is on November 3.

currently a great devotion to him. He was canonized in 1988. He is depicted with the palm of martyrdom and a scimitar, since he was killed by beheading (Fig. 2). Every 3 November, a large feast is held in his honor at the place where he was born. I can recommend it. Cataluña Street. The Sampaloc district and its urban planning, where the UST campus lies, captivated me instantly, despite the constant traffic on España Street. The Tagalog word sampaloc (tamarind fruit) also stuck with me. The urban layout of this district reminded me of an area of Barcelona dating from the early 20 th century, known as the Eixample. Not far the UST campus, just a few streets away, I discovered the Cataluña Bakery and Store, at Cataluña Street (now GM Tolentino Street). I discovered that pandesal, despite the name, is sweet not salty. I also tasted ensaymada. I was proud that the Taga log language had a word of Catalan origin that had come to it through Spanish. Ensaymada comes from the word saïm, which is what the people from the Balearic Islands call lard.

Fig. 3. Abbey of Montserrat, Catalonia.

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I later found out that, even though Cataluña and España streets used the Spanish spelling with the ñ (enye in Filipino), the name of these countries is written with ny in modern Filipi no. This unique point unites Filipino and Catalan orthographi cally, since Spain and Catalonia are written the same way in both Catalan and Filipino (Espanya/Catalunya). This should also be the case for Peñafort/Penyafort. Our Lady of Montserrat. I got the impression that the Sampaloc district had a special light and it was not because of its urban layout. There was something else lighting up its streets and making me feel at home. I found the explanation when I discov ered the Abbey of Our Lady of Montserrat in San Beda College, on Mendiola Street, not far from the UST campus. The abbey was founded in 1904 by Benedictine monks from the Abbey of Montserrat, in Catalonia. Montserrat is a striking mountain in Catalonia (Fig. 3) that can be seen from my university in Barce lona. The Virgin Mary has been worshipped there for the last thousand years! It is the biggest spiritual center of Catalonia. It was comforting for me to learn that Our Lady of Montserrat was

Fig. 5. Frederic Faura i Prat, J. S. (Padre Faura) (Artés, Catalonia, 1840 – Manila, 1897).

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so close to the UST campus.The image venerated at Montser rat is a Romanesque sculpture from the 12th century. It is unique because it is a black Madonna, like the one in Czesto chowa, Poland. Compare the sculptures of Montserrat (Fig. 4A), the Abbey of San Beda (Fig. 4B), and the Cofradía de la In maculada Concepción of Intramuros (Fig. 4C). There can be no doubt that hybridization often produces very successful results! Frederic Faura i Prat (1840–1897). On my first visit to Manila, I stayed in the city center. I often crossed Padre Faura Street. This Jesuit was from Artés, a beautiful town near Montserrat. As you know better than I do, Frederic (Sp. Federico) Faura (Fig. 5) was the founder and first director of the Manila Observ atory (1865). It was the first meteorological observatory in Asia. Father Faura was recognized internationally as the first man to predict the imminence and possible paths of tropical typhoons or baguios. The men who continued the work of Padre Faura at the Manila Observatory were also Catalans who enjoyed great scientific prestige: Josep Algué i Sanllehí (Manresa, Catalonia, 1856 – Roquetes, Catalonia, 1930) and Miquel Selga i Trullas (Rajadell, Catalonia, 1879 – Manila, 1956). I would now like to cite a little known fact about the Manila Observatory. We always talk about Spain’s influence on the Philippines. I would now like to describe a case of Filipino influ ence on Catalan and Spanish science. With the American mili tary occupation after 1898, although the Observatory contin ued under the direction of the Jesuits, some returned to Catalonia. Ricard Cirera i Salse (Os de Balaguer, 1864 – Barce lona, 1932), the former deputy director of the Manila Observa tory, founded the Observatory (of Cosmic Physics) of the Ebre (Sp. Ebro) in Roquetes (Tortosa, southern Catalonia) (Fig. 6). Today, the Ebre Observatory is a benchmark scientific institu tion run by the Jesuits that has its remote origins, as we have said, in the humanitarian action of Padre Faura in preventing the effects of baguios.

Fig. 6. Ebre Observatory, Roquetes (Tarragona, Catalonia), founded in 1904 by Ricard Cirera i Salse, S.J., who came from the Manila Ob servatory.

cals libraries. And more recently, these journals, or rather, the scientific articles that make up these journals, can be accessed through digital repositories on the Internet, thanks to informa tion and communication technologies. Will science journals gradually lose their identity to the benefit of scientific articles? This is probably already true in the digital environment (see: Digital Object Identifier [DOI] System, [www.doi.org]).

Over the past Christmas holidays (2010), I wrote a few notes based on certain keywords of scientific research to which I feel drawn either professionally or personally. These keywords ex press different countercurrent concepts, attitudes or beliefs cur rently used in Science, focused on Chemistry. They all have the appeal of going against the flow—countercurrent—like salmon, which is why, if we can associate words or images with a color, I personally would associate them with the color of this fish.

Open Access. The large digital repositories of scientific papers have traditionally been in the hands of the big multinationals of scientific publishing. Indeed, they can be consulted by the sci entific community following a user payment, either through a regular subscription (personal or institutional) or on a pay-perview basis. As society moves towards more participatory forms of democracy, science policy cannot remain outside the will of the people. A basic understanding of science and unrestricted access to advanced scientific information is one of society’s current demands, which would benefit both science and soci ety. Along these lines, the idea of open access publishing is gaining ground in the scientific community. This system chang es the dogma of the publishing industry, in which scientific in formation is traditionally accessed following the payment of a fee by users. Open access publishing systems are generally based on a payment from the author (an amount per page, for example). Conceptually, it is about giving back to the society that funded the research with its taxes in the form of peer-re viewed scientific literature. Otherwise, as is currently the case, we end up paying twice: once to fund the research and once to obtain access to the results. The current salmon-colored de bate does not concern the shift in the publishing paradigm, but in whether open access will diminish the quality and quantity of scientific literature. I am sure this does not happen now, nor will it happen in the future.

Scientific communication: towards the democratization of science Scientific articles rather than scientific journals. We cannot un derstand a modern science like chemistry without the contin ued dissemination of the knowledge generated by scientific re search. As we know, research is mainly disseminated through journals specializing in the different sub-disciplines of a subject. These are the journals that we see (or saw) in scientific periodi

Open Journal Systems. Information and communication tech nologies also allow the scientific community to conduct the publishing process itself (handling of manuscripts, editing, publication and dissemination). “Open Journal System (OJS) is a journal management and publishing system that has been developed by the Public Knowledge Project [http://pkp.sfu. ca/] through its federally funded efforts to expand and improve access to research. While its work is focused on improving the

Various Aspects of Chemistry in Salmon-Colored Keywords

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scholarly quality of publishing processes, it also seeks to ex pand the realm of public education by improving social sci ence’s contribution to public knowledge, in the belief that such a contribution is critical to academic freedom, the public use of reason, and deliberative forms of democracy.” For me, it is a great satisfaction to see that Acta Manilana, founded in 1965, is published in open access form on the OJS platform. The journal is the official publication of the Research Center of the Natural Sciences, University of Santo Tomas, whose Academic Advisory Board I currently am a member of. Chemistry, a central science. “Chemistry—our life, our future” International Year of Chemistry (2011). The United Nations de clared 2011 the International Year of Chemistry. The aim is to raise global awareness of the importance of this science in our lives, of the contributions it has made and continues to make to the well-being of humanity, and of the solutions it provides to our needs. The initiative also seeks to increase interest in chemistry among young people by generating enthusiasm for the creative future of the science while also highlighting the role played by women in the development of this discipline. IUPAC—the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemis try, fairly representative of the world’s chemistry community— and UNESCO are coordinating the initiative. “Chemistry—our life, our future” has been chosen as the motto of the International Year. It is very appropriate. Do we still need to remind ourselves that chemistry is our life? Our every day life. Life itself. That our life relies on chemistry? Yes, we still need to remind ourselves, at least on a global scale. We need to remind these issues because chemistry or the chemical in dustry has a salmon-colored tint. Some social sectors see chemistry as a threat to health and the environment. But can we live without chemistry? Scientifically, this is unreasonable: chemistry is everything. As humans, it is unwise: progress and chemistry are inseparable. Socially, it is ill-advised: chemistry makes our lives more pleasant.

Alegret

Chemical information: information is power Our society has developed from being an industrial society to a society of information. The creation, distribution, dissemination, use, integration, and handling of information are activities of great economic, social and political interest. Modern societies need huge amounts of information, especially scientific informa tion, because we often need to make decisions on a range of is sues with scientific roots. However, there is often also an infor mation overload, making it difficult to understand a concept and preventing us from making the right decisions. I personally would write chemical information—and especially analytical chem ists—in salmon-colored ink, in the sense that it goes unnoticed by society but is present in most contemporary scientific issues. Analytical information. We need analytical chemical information (qualitative, quantitative, and structural) to make a medical di agnosis or to recommend a given therapy. The conservation and management of the environment involves the monitoring of chemical parameters in soil, water, and air. Industrial process es require analytical controls, of the process itself and of the raw materials, intermediates, and finished products. There is a general demand for increasingly analytical information and of information that is of a better quality (accuracy, precision, speed, cost, detection limit, sample size, etc.). Analytical instrumentation. The methodological aspects of in formation production through analytical processes (Fig. 7) are in constant evolution. Chemical analysis initially used entirely empirical bases and chemical reaction was the sole source of information. Following World War II, the substantial progress in analytical instrumentation, primarily due to electronics, became widely available. This resulted in chemical analysis that devel oped the detection or measurement of any useful physico chemical property. After the consolidation of manual and instrumental methods, now considered to be classics, chemical analysis received the

Millennium Development Goals. The idea that everything is chemistry, in the sense that we are surrounded by chemicals that contribute to our well-being, is a viewpoint adopted by the more developed countries. The difference between a devel oped country and a developing country is precisely that the latter lacks consumer chemicals, from everyday ones to essen tial medicines. This is why chemistry, in its role as a central sci ence, despite its salmon color, has an important part to play, in the eyes of the United Nations, in the achievement of the Mil lennium Development Goals. Recall that these goals are: 1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger. 2. Achieve universal primary education. 3. Promote gender equality and empower women. 4. Reduce child mortality rate. 5. Improve maternal health. 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases. 7. Ensure environmental sustainability. 8. Develop a global partnership for development.

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Fig. 7. (A) Schematic diagram of the analytical process. In its most general formulation, the analytical process can be described as two independent steps: encoding of the composition of the sample in a signal and decoding of the latter through the calibration of the process. (B) Main steps of the various experimental procedures for conducting the analytical process.

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Some salmon-colored keywords regarding various aspects of chemistry*

impact of new technologies during the second half of the 20th century, known under the mnemonic acronym ‘tecnobergs’: telecommunications, electronics, computers, new materials, optoelectronics, biotechnology, energy, robotics, genetics, and space. The development of analytical chemistry is increas ingly dependent on these technologies. In turn, they need more and better analytical information on materials and processes for their development. The introduction of computers has been re ferred to as an authentic revolution in many fields of human ac tivity. We can now say that the automation of the analytical process and the use of computers in analytical chemistry are two inseparable facts constituting a new category of analytical methodologies. Even now, the diverse manual and instrumental strategies of the analytical process require sophisticated de signs and high costs. This, among other aspects, has condi tioned the process in the sense that it needs a supporting envi ronment, i.e. a laboratory and specialized staff. This is what Marie Curie called the ‘sacred rooms.’ Nowadays, these cen tralized laboratories are only accessible to institutions with sub stantial financial resources. And this is the point I wish to make: if information is power, do those without analytical laboratories have limited powers in health, the environment, or industry? Chemical sensors. A new analytical paradigm: from the lab to the field Now, for the first time in the chemical metrology, we have ana lytical instruments designed to be used outside the laboratory; in other words, rather than having samples of material systems going into the laboratory to be analyzed, the analytical instru ment leaves the laboratory to analyze the material system di rectly. The chemical sensor is a new strategy in the develop ment of analytical instrumentation that provides original solutions for the performance of analytical processes outside the laboratory. Designed as a small, robust, portable and easyto-use device, it provides reliable information continuously. The chemical sensor can be as small as we can imagine. It has two basic parts or materials. A chemical or biological mate rial for selective recognition of the analyte is integrated (immobilized) into a transducing material or device that ‘translates’ the primary signal (electrochemical, optical, heat or mass) pro duced in the recognition event into a useful secondary signal. Depending on whether the recognition material (receptor) is synthetic or biological, these devices are called chemosensors or biosensors. Research and development into chemosensors and biosen sors is focused on designs compatible with technologies, such as screen-printing techniques, which allow for the industrial production of low-cost devices. The same technology that has given us microelectronic devices can be used for the microfab rication of microsensor devices and analytical microinstru ments, such as labs-on-a-chip, paving the way for a miniaturization of the analytical process. This means that chemical sensors could become low-cost instruments of mass use, for personal use or, sometimes, simply disposable instruments. Chemical sensors go against the flow of current analytical in strumentation!

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Democratizing chemical information. A new social paradigm: from the analysts to the non-specialists Chemical sensor analysis. Given the conceptual and techno logical strength of chemical sensors, we can glimpse for the first time the possibility that analytical instruments with top-line metrological features can be used by non-specialists and out side laboratories. This means that experts in health, the envi ronment, or industry can obtain their own analytical information for decision-making. It also means that developing countries with few centralized analytical laboratories can meet their ana lytical information needs in a range of fields. Low-cost instrumentation and microscale chemistry. Micros cale chemistry has been recognized as one of the most viable forms of innovation in chemistry education. This type of chem istry saves reagents and time, eliminates the danger of fire and explosion, reduces waste, and uses low-cost laboratory mate rials. It is very environmentally friendly and educational, which is why it is considered green chemistry. And for me, it is also salmon-colored chemistry, since it can be carried out without the need for substantial technical or financial resources, which is not the usual line of academic laboratories today. This salm on-colored chemistry still needs to make the leap from the classroom to the field and into the hands of professionals. I am pleased that the IUPAC (International Union of Pure and Ap plied Chemistry) and FACS (Federation of Asian Chemical So cieties) have ongoing projects along this line and that the Uni versity of Santo Tomas, through Professor Sevilla and his colleagues, is participating actively in them. Technological convergence: only atoms, molecules, bits, genes... University teaching and research in experimental sciences are preparing for the most far-reaching paradigm shift since the Enlightenment. Indeed, following the necessary secular but stagnant compartmentalization of the physical, chemical, and biological sciences, we are now witnessing a change of direc tion, aimed at a better understanding of fields: the convergence of all things that emerges when we approach these sciences on both an atomic and a molecular scale. Nanoscience and nanotechnology is a new conceptual and methodological plat form in which chemistry, physics, and biology merge into a sin gle form of knowledge. This platform also provides a useful tool and a good opportunity to re-think our teaching and research in the traditional experimental sciences. Nano-bio-info-cogno technologies. With nanotechnology, we can handle matter on a nanometric scale (one millionth of a mil limeter) and hence reconfigure it as new structures thus far un imaginable. In this view, such diverse domains as biomedicine, information technology, chemistry, photonics, microelectron ics, robotics, and materials science, among others, will con verge on a molecular scale into a single technological para digm. Accordingly, we have begun to identify a core of convergence in the nano-bio-info-cogno domain (NBIC or converging technologies). On the scale of 1 to 100 atomic diame ters, thanks to nanotechnology, there is a confluence of disci

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Alegret

plines in areas such as biotechnology, information and communication technologies, artificial intelligence, and neuro science. On this scale, theoretical principles and experimental techniques can be very similar. Bioanalytical nanotechnology (BANT). The course entitled ‘Bio analytical nanotechnology’ was prepared by the Sensors and Biosensors Group of the Chemistry Department of the Autono mous University of Barcelona. It is currently being taught at the University of Santo Tomas as part of the events planned to cel ebrate the university’s quadricentennial. The aim of the course is to be a pioneer in nano-bio-info-cogno convergence in the field of analytical chemistry. Bioanalytical nanotechnologies generate qualitative or quantitative information on material sys tems (info domain), using biological reagents such as enzymes, antibodies, DNA, or bacteriophages (bio domain), on nanos tructured materials like carbon nanotubes, metal nanoparti cles, quantum dots, or magnetic beads (nano domain) and eventually using artificial intelligence tools to interpret the sig nals obtained (cogno domain). Chemical education: towards a sustainable development We would like to think that all these tools will somehow influ ence future sustainable development, which seeks to meet current needs without compromising future resources. Sus tainability offers a new way of approaching our relationship with the rest of nature. What should be done about the end less pollution, climate change, threatened biodiversity, and the destruction of cultural diversity? And what about the other challenges that the future holds? Education, continuous edu cation! The United Nations has pledged to develop the Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (DESD) (2005–2014). ESD (Education for Sustainable Development) aims to help people to develop the attitudes and skills and to acquire the knowledge that will enable them to make basic decisions for their own benefit and for others, now and in the future, and to put these decisions into practice. ESD is based on five pillars of learning that provide quality education and encourage sustain able human development. These pillars are:

3. Learning to live together. 4. Learning to do. 5. Learning to transform oneself and society. Hopefully, these five pillars will guide the scientific relation ship between the University of Santo Tomas and the Autono mous University of Barcelona.

Acknowledgements I would like to extend my warmest thanks to the academic au thorities of the University of Santo Tomas, Manila, for the honor of being appointed an Honorary Professor of Chemistry of this esteemed university. I would particularly like to thank my col leagues in the Chemistry Department at the College of Sci ence, and the Research Center for the Natural Sciences, who have backed this initiative and who, by this appointment, seek to acknowledge a fruitful scientific and human relationship of many years between the Autonomous University of Barcelona and the University of Santo Tomas, Manila.

Selected bibliography 1.

3. 4. 5.

7. 1. Learning to know. 2. Learning to be.

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Alegret S, Merkoçi A (eds) (2007) Electrochemical Sensor Analysis: 49 (Comprehensive Analytical Chemistry). Else vier, Amsterdam, 1028 pp Collell A, O.P. (1959) Religiosos dominicos misioneros en el Extremo Oriente hijos de la diócesis de Vich. Ausa 3(28): 214-229 Galmés Ll (1988) Pere Almató i Ribera, O.P.: màrtir en el Vietnam: 1830-1861. Claret, Barcelona Garrabou J (1998) Presència catalana a les Filipines. Pub licacions de l’Abadia de Montserrat, Barcelona, 115 pp Habal Pernecita ML (2003) Diccionari català-filipí filipícatalà / Talátinigan pilipino-katalan katalan pilipino. Ron das, Barcelona, 397 pp Roco MC, Bainbridge WS (2002) Converging Technolo gies for Improving Human Performance. NRF-DOC Sponsored Report. National Research Foundation Vernet J, Parés R (2007/2007/2009) La ciència en la història dels Països Catalans. Universitat de València / In stitut d’Estudis Catalans, València, 3 vol.

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historical corner

Margalida Comas Camps (1892-1972): Scientist and science educator Charly Ryan * Faculty of Education, Health and Social Care, University of Winchester, Winchester

As discussed in the recent publication by Barona [5], the mili tary uprising in Spain in 1936 was a fatal blow to the nascent scientific community in Spain. Policies that drew on science and technology had been viewed as a way to bring about the country’s modernization. At the same time, liberal and Republi can policies gave rise to a scientific infrastructure that also pro vided support for young scientists to travel abroad in order to develop their science knowledge and research skills and to participate in conferences and international research. Science, technology, and education were seen as essential in Spain’s transition from its rural conservative past to modernity. One ac tive participant in these changes was Margalida Comas Camps [1], who was born in Alaior Minorca in 1892. She died in Exeter, UK in 1972. As the recent publication Margalida Comas Camps (1892–1972). Cientifica i pedagoga points out, “the Minorcan Margalida Comas Camps (1892–1972) is, possibly, the most important Spanish female scientist of the first third of the twen tieth century… and one of the most important educators of the first half of the twentieth century.” ([23], back cover). This article is concerned mainly with her role as science educator but, as we will see this was closely linked to her development as a sci entist. After a brief overview of the scientific work of Margalida Comas Camps, her career in science education and as a sci ence teacher is discussed.

Margalida Comas Camps as scientist

Her Baccalaureate (1911) shows that she was an outstanding student in almost every subject. The summer following her graduation from the Instituto, she was awarded the Extraordi nary Baccalaureate Award of the Sciences Section for her study on the cooperation between plants and insects in pollination. A member of the panel of judges was the zoologist Josep Fuset (1871–1952), who would later be one of her mentors. In September 1911, she registered for the program that would qualify her as Maestra Elemental y Superior (elementary and secondary teacher). This was an unusual route for women at that time, who were expected to attend the Escuela Normal then perhaps the institute. Nonetheless, she was eventually ac cepted and subsequently graduated with outstanding grades. This was only a year after women had been given the right to enter institutes and universities. That summer, she was invited to attend the Second Summer School at Bellver, run by Fuset, which led to her first publication [9]. In the autumn of 1911, she went with her father to Madrid, where she met with his friends and colleagues from the Junta para Ampliación de Estudios (JAE, Board for Advanced Studies), including Jose Castillejo. The JAE informed her of a post in Albi, France for an assistant in Spanish language learning and recommended Comas for the job. Teaching in France allowed her to develop her French language skills and to become certified as a Brévet Elemen taire, the requirement to teach in a French primary school. She spent the years 1912–1915 in Madrid, where she entered the Escuela de Estudios Superiores del Magisterio (School of High er Studies of Teaching), achieving the highest grades in sci

From early in her education, it was obvious that Margalida Co mas Camps (her Spanish first name, Margarita, is often used by authors; see Notes) was an exceptional student with a pen chant for science [2]. Her parents, Gabriel Comas Ribas (1864– 1942) and Rita Camps Mus, had five other, younger children, one of whom had died at an early age. Gabriel Comas was a teacher and community worker [23] who raised his children to work hard in order to develop their talents [37]. After attending an elementary school for girls, Margalida Co mas was accepted to the Instituto General y Técnico de Baleares (General and Technical Institute of the Balearic Islands).

* Correspondence: C. Ryan, Faculty of Education, Health and Social Care, University of Winchester, Winchester, Hampshire SO22 4NR, United Kindom. Tel. +44-(0)1962827205. E-mail: charly.ryan@win chester.ac.uk

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Fig. 1. Professor Margalida Comas Camps. Ingrid Sintes Comas Col lection.

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ence in each year of her studies, during which she was able to intensify her science and professional knowledge and her re search and teaching abilities. Her source of income during this time derived from teaching at the International Institute for Girls, a school catering to the children of Madrid’s elite. She was also able to improve her English, something that would soon be of great use to her. While in Madrid, she attended practical sci ence courses at the city’s Museum of Natural Sciences. She spent several summers at the Balearic Marine Biology Labora tory, with Fuset. In 1915, she was appointed numerary professor of physics, chemistry, and natural history at the Escuela Normal in Santander, where she remained until 1922. Her many years of work as a teacher reflected the difficulty for women at that time to take up careers in research science [22]. Perhaps in re sponse to this challenge, she introduced her students to scien tific fieldwork as well as additional practical classes in science, in which she made use of everyday materials. In 1918, she ap plied to the science faculty at Barcelona as an unofficial stu dent and presented work from her research with Fuset to the department of zoology. In 1919, she also became an unofficial student at the Central University in Madrid, which she could travel to more easily than Barcelona. She completed her stud ies in both cities, obtaining very high grades in mineralogy, botany, algebra, and chemistry. In 1920, Margalida Comas applied to the JAE for support to work outside Spain in order to further her professional develop ment. This was at the end of five years at the Escuela Normal of Santander, where she was frustrated by the difficulties in teaching science to future teachers with very little background in science. According to Comas, while her students were knowledeable about the basic tenets of science, “they do not reason better, are not more inventive, nor observe better; things which, in my opinion, have greater importance for them and for their future pupils, especially future pupils, as I believe that in the primary school this is almost the only aim of science teaching.” ([10], p.142). This statement reflects what Comas considered to be the requirements of science educators and of a science education as well as the contribution of science to general education [33]. In her opinion, science teaches stu dents to observe and to reason. She valued the opportunity to further her theoretical and practical knowledge and her under standing of physics, chemistry, botany, and zoology at Univer sity College and Bedford College, both in London, and hoped to follow the methodology of science teaching used by these institutions and by the Primary Teacher Training College. “The best place it seems to me then is England, which is, of the European countries, the one that has always more closely united education and instruction. There the teaching of science (as a number of authorities have told me and which I have been able to confirm in a variety of publications) is how I would like to be able to teach, that is, by fully con sidering the education of the student.” ([10], p. 144) In order to achieve these goals while in England, she applied for a three-term visit, arriving a month early for orientation.

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Ryan

These first formal connections with England and her reasons for choosing them reflect her own methods of science practice [43] as well as her identification of the broad range of knowl edge that a teacher needs in order to teach, including subject knowledge and pedagogical content knowledge [45]. Indeed, this approach remains the one recommended to professionals to develop their teaching skills [35,21] and it was advocated by Comas in her publications. During her stay in England, she summarized her learning and professional development in a review for the JAE [10]. While she noted that she now had more questions than at the start, it is nonetheless possible to identify several of her key ideas regarding the teaching of science. “One conviction that I can state ever more firmly is what is needed, for innumerable reasons, is to turn the attention of our children towards the countryside, not as something static, as one might look at a museum, but as something alive, changing, full of interest. This is the reason for my de sires to specialise to some extent in the methodology of nature study and physical geography, and so to ask for an ex tension to my grant.” ([10], p. 204) She believed that not only must the daily instruction of chil dren be reconsidered but also their overall education, arguing that in Spain children are led too carefully by the hand and thus are incapable of learning on their own. A good science educa tion would avoid this problem and encourage autonomy. In 1922, she arranged a transfer to the Escuela Normal in Tarragona, where she served as director from 1931 to 1933. This move allowed her to complete her degree in Barcelona and was followed by doctoral studies, including research at the Sorbonne, in Paris, in the field of genetics. In a review of the discovery of sex chromosomes, Delgado Echeverría [22] highlighted three particular publications in which Margalida Comas Camps contributed to genetics: one on intersexuality in the nematode Paramermis contorta [13], one on the role of chromosomes in ovogensis in the mosquito Chironomus [14], and one on the relation between sex and temperature in Rana temporaria [15]. The work she did at the Sorbonne contribut ed to her doctorate, which she was awarded in 1928. Another woman teacher, Catalina de Sena Vives i Pieras, also from the Balearic Islands, had received a teacher’s doctorate in natural sciences in 1917. However, Comas is the first Spanish woman to be awarded a research-based doctorate in the natural sci ences, which was awarded by the Central University in Ma drid, rather than the University of Barcelona as some sources claim [23]. Her thesis topic, on the environmental control of sex, may have provided her with scientific support for her pro posals on co-education [17]. In her doctoral dissertation, she commented: “As I said at the start, the previous pages are the result of more than a year of assiduous work, and despite the support received from competent persons, I realise perfectly that their intrinsic scientific merit is nonetheless limited. .... though

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my work is modest and incomplete, it is absolutely sincere and reflects, nevertheless, the best of intentions.” ([14], p. 364)

lives, when it is a depersonalized science in which there is no space for themselves and their ideas.

Although she tried to follow up on this scientific work and was supported by other scientists familir with her research, she was unable to obtain a job in science [36]. Thus, she con tinued to work in Tarragona and in 1931 became deputy di rector of the Escuela Normal of the Autonomous Government of Catalonia in Barcelona and in 1933 a member of the Faculty of Philosophy and Literature of the Autnomous University of Barcelona, where she would work until the outbreak of the Spanish Civil War. In December 1936, she was sent by the University of Barcelona to England to present the work being doing in education, arriving probably in the first week of Janu ary 1937. By February 2, 1937, The Times, on page 15, an nounced a talk by Margalida Comas on ‘The New Spain,’ at Friends House. On May 27, 1937, the ship La Habana sailed into Southampton carrying some 4000 Basque children. Dur ing her years in England, Comas worked for the Republican cause and the welfare of these child refugees. Following rec ognition of the Franco regime by the UK in 1942, Comas sought work in England, becoming a science teacher at the Dartington Hall School. Before analyzing her teaching as per ceived by former students, I present an overview of her writ ings on science education.

1. ‘Science teaching is predominantly transmissive.’ As a student, learning science is simply a matter of being like a sponge, soaking up knowledge as it comes from the teacher or the textbook. 2. ‘Science knowledge is dogmatic and correct.’ There are no shades of gray in science. 3. ‘The content of school science has an abstractness that makes it irrelevant.’ So much of what is taught in science is uninteresting be cause it is not related to our everyday lives. Science in films and in the media is often exciting, but that is not true of the science we are taught in school. There are science topics that would be interesting but these are not part of the school curriculum. 4. ‘Learning science is relatively difficult, for both successful and unsuccessful students.’ Science is more difficult than a number of the other sub jects, and especially compared with ones that can be chosen in the later years of schooling. ([24], p. 20–21, numbers added for later reference)

Science Education From her many books and publications, we have a clear view of Comas’ notion of a good science education. As Bernal Mar tinez and López Martinez [8] pointed out: in the 20th century, key innovations in science education in Spain came from the work of the New Education Foundation (renamed the World Education Fellowship in 1966) and from translations of work published in other countries, with Comas contributing to both. She was President of the Spanish Section from 1933 to 1947 (New Education Foundation Archive, Institute of Education London), during which she translated a number of books. Current thinking on science education is characterized by thee major approaches [33]. Of these, perhaps the most obvi ous is education in science, specifying the role of science as an introduction to a basic knowledge and understanding of scien tific concepts and practice. A second dimension is education for science, that is, providing an education for students who will later become scientists. The third dimension, education through science, refers to the manner in which science contrib utes to achieving the general aims of education, such as a re spect for evidence and the value of collaboration. The first approach, education in science, is the one most relevant to school curricula. As Fensham [24] noted, the way that science is taught has important consequences for stu dents’ perceptions of science and their decisions to abandon science study. While students, teachers, and parents recog nize the value and importance of science [27], the science they consider important is not often taught in school. Students re ject school science when it is disconnected from their own

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Debates about science as content and as a way of working and thinking about the world can be traced back to the de bates on school science that took place in the 19th century, with the start of compulsory schooling [30], when knowledge transmission gained the upper hand. But Comas, in 1925, ad vocated a school science that dealt with both the process and the content of science. In Las Ciencias en la Escuela [12] she wrote: “What is interesting is the way, the method, and that is why science should be in schools, for its practical importance.” ([12], p. 57) She also argued [11] that the method does not stand alone. “The scientific method, that is, the mental discipline pro duced by studying the sciences, is, in general, what is im portant; but the method is inseparable from the content. […] Thus, what is studied must also be worth its while. Conse quently, the issue is not only how to teach but also what to teach in order to achieve the desired outcome.” ([11], p. 82) Thus, hers is not the simplistic approach to the scientific method often propagated in school science [28] but a mental discipline, which was a popular concept during her time. She also added that she was not advocating a discovery approach in which students try to rediscover the concepts of science [3]. “The importance ceded to the method means that the ideal approach to teaching is to provide the students, when they study science, with the same spirit that is unique to the sci ence researcher, but not in order to discover for themselves in a few years what has taken centuries in the life of human ity to discover. Rather, through their own eyes and through manipulating their own equipment, to enable them to subse quently apply to other aspects of their lives the qualities of

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observation and proportional reasoning, which are those of the scientist. They experience not only something of the work but also some of the joy in intellectual adventure.” ([11], p. 82) “In this way, we exclude the acquisition of second-hand concepts. Children will thus do their own science, will feel to some extent the same emotions as researchers or intellec tuals, and like them will experience a feeling of responsibility, will put into play all of themselves not just their memory or their intelligence. In a good example of such a class, each child will manipulate materials, will examine, draw and ex periment with them, finally to discover something that was until then unknown by the child. Teachers are a guide but should never replace their own activity for that of the child. Their mission is to suggest or direct but it is the child who has to observe, to experiment, to compare, to draw conse quences. Therefore, from what we have said, we can de duce that the objects of study should be common and avail able in the school surroundings (not strange or distant) and that the programme has to adapt itself to the seasons.” ([12], p. 59). We see here the joining of process and content as well as the affective dimension, so important for encouraging a lifelong interest in science [24,47]. Comas is thus addressing points 1–3 of Fensham’s above-cited list. When it comes to the sequence of the science lessons, rather than imposing a se quence that is logical from the point of view of science, Comas points out the importance of considering the sequence from the pupils’ perspectives. The lessons need to be closely related and connected, developed from the learner’s perspective. This ‘constructivist’ approach [28] has its basis in the work of re searchers such as Piaget [38] and Vygotsky [48]. However, Comas explores them in 1925, before the work of Vygotsky was published in the West. Although Piaget had by then pub lished his first studies on children’s representations of the world, it is not clear whether Comas was aware of this work. It may be that she was first introduced to it during her stay in Ge neva in 1929. Instead, her recommendations seem to be based on her thinking, reading, writing, and practice and on the results of reflection and illuminative evaluation [26]. In the same article, she takes up another of her themes, the importance of fieldwork and excursions. Again she points out the need for pupils to carry out such work and she recommends written records and repeat visits to the same sites over the year, to allow students to experience how the site changes; this rec ommendation likewise parallels modern thinking [29]. She de velops her ideas in detail for both rural and city schools but is also aware of the constraints under which teachers work. While bemoaning the lack of science education available to teachers, she identifies the ways in which the Escuelas Normales might address the issues, the large numbers of children in a class, and the scarcity of resources. She claims, however, that “even un der current conditions we can do much more than we do now, if we are able to convince ourselves of the importance of sci ence and leave aside some of our worries.” ([12], p. 58).

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These quotations served as proposals for an education in science and for educational approaches that have become adopted in current thinking [47, 31]. It is also clear that Comas dealt with many of the issues identified by Fensham as nega tive aspects of school science that should be avoided. She stated her developing view of education through science. • “Sciences… humanise the mind of young children; to gether with literature and art, the sciences are one of the greatest historical expressions of the spirit. Consequently, they have as much right to a prominent place in the school programme” ([11], p.82) • “There are some facets of the human soul that a science education, better than any other, and thus the school can cultivate, for example: – The spirit of observation – Serenity – Dominion over oneself – The habit of searching for the causes of things – Order – Caution in one’s claims – An admiration for nature – Modesty – Tolerance” [10] This list is an example of thinking that, until recently, was largely forgotten [47]. Comas continued to develop her methodology, as is evident in her Contribucion a la metodología de las Ciencias [20], where she argues for rational curriculum planning through a se ries of questions: What are its aims and objectives? And how can we develop the necessary aptitudes, skills, and attitudes? She states that science teaching depends on three factors, our aim, the base or starting point of the child, and the special na ture of science. “In effect, it will be very different whether we want to give the child a varnish of general culture or educate them in the widest sense of that word.” ([20], p. 161). She draws on a range of authors, including scientists such as Huxley, to elaborate her ideas, detailing the elements of scien tific thinking such as observation, analysis-synthesis, selecting data, hypothesis, deduction through experimental outcomes, reasoning, and judgment. For Comas, scientific judgment should be impartial and impersonal and must be left pending in the absence of sufficient data. These views are very similar to current recommendations in science education (see, for exam ple, [31, 34]), ones that have taken many people significant ef forts to reach when, had history been otherwise, they might have become accepted practice in Spain much sooner. Comas also deals with the issue of the difficulty of school science,as identified above by Fensham. In England, in the first half of the 20th century, the hereditary nature of intelligence was accepted and used to justify the education of students [49]. Comas was able to draw on her scientific work on heredi ty to analyze the data that had been gathered so far. She au thored a number of papers on the subject (see, for example, [18, 19]) and reviewed work on inheritance in addition to draw ing on her own research on the impacts of the environment. To

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this she added everyday examples such as how environmental influences lead to bees and ants acquiring specific behaviors. She noted that the majority of characteristics lie between na ture and nurture, “but are capable of large modifications through environmental differences.” [18] She highlighted the need to study the issue scientifically and offered the work of Piaget, on causality in the child, as an example. In 1935, writing on genetics and eugenics, she reviewed what was known about inheritance and argued that eugenics programs, such as sterilization in Germany and in the USA, failed to yield the in tended result . She concluded: “Nevertheless, we must not forget that all measures that tend to improve the environment and education are in reality eugenicist in the sense that they favour the production of tal ent, if not genius, and enable each individual to attain the maximum of their inherited possibilities.” ([19], p. 78) Her proposals are consonant with notions that are only now becoming accepted, i.e., that children can learn to be intelli gent [32,44].

Margalida Comas Camps as teacher Trying to reconstruct the teaching methods of somebody who retired over 40 years ago is obviously tricky. There are some records of the planned curriculum but less about what Comas actually taught. Differences between the two are normal and often significant [40]. It is clear that from the start of her career as an educator of teachers, Comas introduced science into the Escuela Normal at Santander. It was her intention to connect process with con tent and to relate science to everyday life by using materials encountered daily. She took similar steps in Tarragona and Barcelona. For the latter there are records of the curriculum of teacher education. In 1929, Comas [17] described the Escuela Normal as a professional school and she predicted its transition to the Escuela Universitaria (University School), which finally oc curred 60 years later. The preparatory courses included natural sciences, mathematics, and physics and chemistry. Within the 4-year program, students training to become teachers took courses in general biology, human physiology and anthropolo gy and practiced the methods used in the natural sciences and in physics and chemistry. This represents a remarkable input by Comas into science education compared with the program she encountered upon her arrival in Santander. It was also rath er progressive compared to most primary teacher education programs offered today in the UK or Spain. Comas initiated a wide range of activities outside the curriculum, some organized by the students association. There are links and activities with schools and the university, to ensure a lively exchange of ideas and thereby break down traditional isolation on both sides. There is group work and continuous assessment. In this planned curriculum, the relationship to her writing is evident. She writes that in this first year it is difficult to draw definite con clusions, with one exception: co-education.

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“Now we are talking of young girls and boys from 14 to 25 or 30 years of age, who come from all backgrounds, who spend all day together, in classes, games, sport, excur sions, lectures, meals, and who have been perfect in this respect. They have presented no problem.” ([17], p. 436) She adds that friendships tend to be by age and that some students “are seen together all the time and we have reason to believe that their friendship has sometimes developed into more tender feelings, but their work has not suffered, on the contrary.” ([17], p. 436) While we thus have Comas’ perspective on the planned cur riculum, we have no information on how it was received by her students. This is not the case for her work in England as a biol ogy teacher. In discussing the received curriculum, some clari fication is needed. Dartington Hall School, a private residential school, had been established based on a philosophy closely linked with the New Education of Spain and the New Education Foundation. At the time of her appointment, in 1942, students took an active part in running the school and could choose which lessons to attend. There was a serious attempt at equal ity, with little differentiation between boys and girls [39]. Such an approach would seem to have matched well with the ideas of Margalida Comas Camps [17]. According to Bernal and Co mas ([7], p. 24), “Margarita Comas developed a magnificent analysis of the problems of coeducation from both theoretical and practical perspectives, always based on a thorough knowledge of both, which makes her work one of the most complete of her time on the topic. The positivist foundations of her argu ments enabled her to show with ease the weakness of the theses of those opposed to co-education, which were usu ally based on moral prejudices, or on pseudo-scientific affir mations about the physical and psychological differences between men and women.” However, when it came to her appointment, she was report edly not accepted by the students as she was a woman. None theless, she convinced the authorities to give her a week’s trial and at the end of the week the students asked for her to be made permanent [36]. Since Dartington Hall students could choose which classes they wanted to attend, their perceptions of the teacher were important. From the respondents, it seems that Comas was perceived as fierce and demanding. Typically, students’ ideal teacher tends to be strict, fair, good at explain ing, and having a sense of humor [50]. But for some students Comas was too fierce and they avoided her classes, albeit sometimes later regretting their choices. The more positive as pects of her practice are discussed below but here it should be mentioned that she was perceived as favoring girls over boys, with some suggestions that boys felt they were less welcome in her class. However, students, and teachers, often err in their attributions of unequal treatment based on gender as such at tributions tend to be colored by the societal norms in which they arise [40].

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A second negative aspect was her reputation for controlling bad behavior by pulling the student’s hair, and sometimes ejecting him or her from class. While this tactic would not have been unusual in many schools in England at that time, it does not seem to be consistent with the New Education ideals and the goal of working as equals that Dartington espoused. Sev eral of Comas’ former students remember having their hair be ing pulled fiercely but others took a different view of Comas, as expressed in a letter of appreciation written after Comas’ death. “Most of us quickly came to realise how fortunate we were to have this brilliant yet kindly woman to teach us. She im posed discipline that was acceptable and without tyranny and adapted herself to be of immense help in so many ways to children who were foreign to her and of an age group far below her intellectual level and teaching capacity.” [6] Another student recalled, “Margharita was indeed rather fearsome, but I think probably a truly inspirational, character.” One of her first students remembered her as follows. “As far as I remember, she had a rather traditional (i.e. somewhat formal) method of teaching: very clear and factual. Coming from par ents very knowledgeable on biology and nature generally… I soaked her teaching up effortlessly. In addition to teaching me, she was also assigned as my tutor. I rather dreaded tutorials because she took me as her most promising student, and hint ed that I had a great future ahead of me. But I was not ready to think about my future in such an adult way - I only wanted to go on being a child. So I often forgot to go to tutorials.” Others highlighted another aspect of Comas’ tutoring. She seemed to have a reputation for being particularly good with difficult or disaffected students, who tended to choose her as their tutor (interview 2007). Turning to the science she taught, many students have re called the long-term investigations of large areas of the school’s grounds, work that often led to an exhibition at the end of the term/year. “Two things she never did were (a) dictate notes or (b) write things on the board and tell us to copy them.” (Letter from a former student in the early 1950s). The natural habitats chosen by the students for their investigations contrast with those studied in the UK today, which are often only 1 m across and are rarely followed over a longer term. Her students have also referred to Comas’ very detailed knowledge of the grounds and that she was easily able to use such knowledge to com ment on their work. There was an emphasis on drawing from life and from spec imens, aspects that Comas had advocated in her writing and demonstrated in her dissertation [14]. With younger pupils, she would perform dissections. “It was only after O level [examina tion at 16 years of age] that I learnt to dissect things myself.” (Letter from a former student who later became a teacher). “With hindsight, I believe that without either of us realising it at the time, she actually taught me a lot about how to teach.” An other student said: “We had a benign martinet in Margharita, who ruled over the biology lab with a total demand for high standards in our books and her classroom, and I honestly be

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lieve she wouldn’t have minded if we had slept in our natural habitats [their study area]. No one’s dead guinea pigs were safe from Margharita. They rarely received a decent burial, but ended up pinned on a dissecting board” [25]. Yet another stu dent recalled a brood of feral kittens, found in the school’s grounds and ending up stored in jars of formaldehyde. Per haps this illustrates the rational approach taken by Comas to matters of life and death. The unwanted animals might as well serve a useful purpose by acting as dissection material, as op posed to the students’ view of animals as pets. In her writing, Comas emphasized understanding as key. Today this would be developed through student discussions of their ideas and of those of scientists [4]. According to the stu dents, discussions and questioning by pupils was normal at Dartington and Comas likely followed such an approach. One student described a political dimension to her teaching. In Jan et Sayers key work, Biological Politics [41], the subject of a re appraisal 20 years later [42], she reflects on Comas’ reaction. “The biology teacher, Margharita Camps, had written a book about evolution which had been banned in Franco’s fascist Catholic Spain, from where she was a refugee. To mark the centenary in 1959 of Darwin’s On the Origin of the Species, she asked me to introduce a discussion about the debate its first publication had unleashed in Oxford.” ([42], p. 448) The long-term impact of her work is reported by many of Comas’ former pupils, many of whom went on to develop ca reers in biological science and to attain prestigous positions, such as Dean of Faculty and high-level jobs in a national mu seum. All of her students seem to be grateful for the level of education they received, as it was well beyond the norms for schools either then or now. Several report that when they went to university they found that they had already covered signifi cant portions of the material. Others talk of the pleasure they have had from their lifelong interest in natural history. While they often advocate it as an aim in science education, few teachers manage to achieve it in their practice.

Conclusion The recollections of Comas’ students in England provide us with insights into the influence that she had on the teaching of science in the UK, as evidenced by the later activities of her students. What seems strange at first is the lack of publications once she came to England. In Spain, she had been a prolific writer, with publications appearing typically every six months or so [23]. However, her work with Spanish exiles, especially Basque children, was time consuming [23]. Once she had ac cepted the post at Dartington, she became engaged in fulltime teaching, acting as parent for the students who lived at the school. She also continued her work with the Basque chil dren and promoted the goals of the Republic. The political situ ation in Spain resulted in her being separated from her hus band for ten years during which she expended considerable efforts in ensuring his eventual safe passage to England. Searches of libraries in Spain show that the Francoist dicta torship was thorough in cleansing texts written by Republican

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authors. While copies remain in Latin American libraries, it is only recently that her publications have become more widely available. Her work on science education and her contributions especially to education through science are at last being rec ognized [47] and made available for others to learn from and to develop further. However, one tends to conclude that exile at a crucial stage in her development as a scientist and educator resulted in paths not taken and in possibilities left unexplored.

Notes and references Notes 1. There are several versions of the name of Margarita Co mas Camps depending on whether the source is Span ish, Catalan, Mallorcan, or English. Her wedding certifi cate shows her Spanish name as Margarita Comas Camps. The recent text on her life and work by Delgado Martínez uses the Catalan version, Margalida Comas Camps. In England, she was known as Dr. Camps and her students at Dartington spell her given name as Mar gherita or Margharita. While it may be obvious in written texts, in digital texts exact spelling is obviously crucial. 2. The material from the early life of Margarlida Comas Camps draws extensively on the work of Delgado Mar tínez (2009) and Bernal Martínez and Comas Rubí (2001). These sources also provide access to the facsimiles and reproductions of Comas’ many writings and serve as a valuable resource in the analysis of her work.

References 3. Adelman D, Elliott J (1975) The language and Logic of In formal Teaching, Centre for Applied Research in Educa tion, Norwich 4. Baines E, Blatchford P, Kutnick P with Chowne A, Ota C, Berdondini L (2008) Promoting Effective Group Work in the Primary Classroom: a handbook for teachers and practitioners. Routledge, London 5. Barona JL (ed) (2010) El Exilio Científico Republicano. Publicaciones Universitat de Valencia, Valencia 6. Bateman M (1972) Margarita Camps -Three apprecia tions, Dartington Hall News, 22 September 1972, p. 4. There is a Catalan translation of these appreciations in ‘Els Comas Camps, mestres de la docència i la investi gació’, Toni Seguí Seguí (2009) Suplement del diari Menorca.Sant Llorenç, pp. 43-49 (August 2009). 7. Bernal Martínez JM, Comas Rubí F (2001) Margarita Co mas: escritos sobre ciencia, género y educación. Biblio teca Nueva, Madrid 8. Bernal Martínez JM, López Martínez D (2007) Innova ciones educativas en la enseñanza de las ciencias en Es paña (1882-1936) Paper presented at the Cátedra UNESCO seminar, Guadalajara Spain (November 2007) 9. Comas Camps M (1912) Excursión a Estallenchs y Puig puñent. In: Comas Ribas G (ed) Memoria de la Segunda Colonia Escolar llamada de Bellver, Año 1911, pp. 65-72.

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10. Comas Camps M (1921) La Enseñanza de las Ciencias [Science Teaching] Report to JAE. In: Bernal Martínez JM, Comas Rubí F (ed) (2001) Margarita Comas. Escritos sobre ciencia, género y educación. Biblioteca Nueva, Madrid 11. Comas Camps M (1922) La enseñanza elemental de las ciencias en Inglaterra. Boletín de la Institución Libre de la Enseñanza 46:80-83 12. Comas Camps M (1925) Las Ciencias en la Escuela. Re vista de Pedagogía 38:56-64 13. Comas Camps M (1927) Sur l’intersexualité chez Paramermis contorta V Linzt. Bulletin Biologique de la France et de la Belgique 61:186-189 14. Comas Camps M (1928) Contribución al conocimiento de la biología de Chironomus y de su parásito Paramermis contorta. Memorias de la Real Sociedad Española de Historia Natural Vol. XIII (1925-1928) (5):369-434 15. Comas Camps M (1929) Contribución al conocimiento del determinismo del sexo en Paramermis contorta. Me morias de la Real Sociedad Española de Historia Natural Vol. XV:47-52 16. Comas Camps M (1931) La Coeducación de los Sexos. Publicaciones de la Revista de Pedagogía, Madrid 17. Comas Camps M (1932) L’école normale de la ‘Generali tat de Catalunya’. Full Report of the New Eucation Fel lowship Sixth World Conference Nice, pp. 432-437 18. Comas Camps M (1933) L’herència i el medi en l’educacio. Revista de Psicología i Pedagogía 1(4):422-430 19. Comas Camps M (1935) Genética y eugenesia. Revista de Pedagogía 15(158):72-78 20. Comas Camps M (1937) Contribución a la Metodología de las Ciencias. In: Carles Pla D (ed) Gerona, pp. 159188 21. De Cossart L, Fish D (2005) Cultivating a Thinking Sur geon: New perspectives on clinical teaching, learning and assessment. tfmPublishing, Shrewsbury UK 22. Delgado Echeverría I (2007) El descubrimiento de los cro mosomas sexuales. CSIC, Madrid 23. Delgado Martínez MA (ed) (2009) Margalida Comas Camps (1892-1972): científica i pedagoga. Govern de les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca 24. Fensham PJ (2008) Science education Policy-Making: Eleven emerging issues. UNESCO, Paris. [http://un esdoc.unesco.org/images/0015/001567/156700E.pdf] (accessed 01/06/11) 25. Gribble D (ed) That’s All Folks: Dartington Hall School Re membered, Dartington, Dartington Hall School. 26. Hamilton D, et al. (eds) (1977) Beyond the Numbers Game: a reader in educational evaluation. Macmillan, Basingstoke 27. Jarvis T, Pell A (2002) Changes in primary boys’ and girls’ attitudes to school and science during a two-year inservice programme. The Curriculum Journal 13(1):43-69 28. Jenkins EW (2000) Constructivism in School Science Education: Powerful Model or the Most Dangerous Intel lectual Tendency? Science & Education 9:599-610 29. Kendall S, Murfield J, Dillon, J, Wilkin, A (2006) Education Outside the Classroom: Research to Identify What Train

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30. 31.

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33. 34. 35. 36.

37.

38.

ing is Offered by Initial Teacher Training Institutions. Na tional Foundation for Educational Research, London. [ht tps://www.education.gov.uk/publications/ eOrderingDownload/RR802.pdf] (accessed 01/06/2011) Layton D (1974) Science for the People. Allen and Unwin, London Lemke JL (2006) Investigar para el futuro de la educación científica: nuevas formas de aprender, nuevas formas de vivir. Enseñanza de las Ciencias 24(1):5-12 Lucas B, Claxton G (2010) New kinds of smart: how the science of learnable intelligence is changing education. Open University Press, Maidenhead Macedo B (2008) Cultura y formación científica: un dere cho de todos. OREALC/UNESCO, La Habana, Cuba Millar R, Osborne J (eds) (1998) Beyond 2000: Science education for the future. King’s College London, London Moon JA (2004) A Handbook of Reflective and Experiential Learning: theory and practice. Routledge Falmer, London Mujeres de Ciencias (2007) Margarita Comas Camps (1892-1973). [http://mujeresdeciencias.blogia.com/2007/ 010801-margarita-comas-camps-1892-1973-.php] (ac cessed 01/06/11) Oliver i Jaume J (1985) Juan Comas i la política educativa de la segona república (1936-1939). Servei de Publicacions de la Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca. Piaget J (1926) La représentation du monde chez l’enfant. [http://www.fondationjeanpiaget.ch/fjp/site/textes/index. php] (accessed 01/06/11)

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39. Punch M (1977) Progressive Retreat: a sociological study of Dartington Hall School and some of its former pupils. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 40. Ryan C (1997) Keeping It Complex: the power of the sup port of a group of professionals. Educational Action Re search 5:17-30 41. Sayers J (1982) Biological Politics. Routledge, London 42. Sayers J (2004) Biological Politics: a Response and After word. Feminism and Psychology 14(3):448-452 43. Schön DA (1983) The Reflective Practitioner: How pro fessionals think in action. Temple Smith, London 44. Shayer M, Adey P (eds) (2002) Learning Intelligence: Cognitive acceleration across the curriculum from 5 to 15 years. Open University Press, London 45. Shulman LS (1986) Those who understand: knowledge growth in teaching. Educational Researcher 15(2):4-14 46. Smith E (2010) Is there a crisis in school science educa tion in the UK? Educational Review 62(2):189-202 47. UNESCO (2010) Challenges to Science Education. UNESCO Publishing, Paris 48. Vygotsky LS (1978) Mind in society: The development of higher psychological processes. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA 49. White J (2005) Puritan intelligence: the ideological back ground to IQ. Oxford Review of Education 31(3):423-442 50. Wubbels T (2005) Student perceptions of teacher–stu dent relationships in class. International Journal of Edu cational Research 43(1-2):1-5

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CONTRIBUTIONS to SCIENCE, 7 (1): 85–92 (2011) Institut d’Estudis Catalans, Barcelona DOI: 10.2436/20.7010.01.113 ISSN: 1575-6343 www.cat-science.cat

Biography and bibliography

Professor Pere Pi Calleja (1907–1986)* Pere Pi Calleja was one of the most important Catalan mathe maticians of the 20th century. In this short article, we review the main aspects of his life and include a full list of his publications.

degree in Architecture (1928–1932), with excellent qualifica tions [8] in all its technological and scientific aspects but less so in the artistic ones.

Pere Pi Calleja as a student (1907–1928)

The Berlin experience (1933–1936)

Pere Enric Francesc Pi Calleja was born in Barcelona on 19 January 1907. His father, Enrique Pi-Morell, was a physician born in Roses and his mother, Luisa Calleja-Borja, came from Madrid. The Pi family was a very influential one and included well-known intellectuals and politicians. Pere Pi Calleja studied in a public school, where he was an excellent student, achiev ing the highest qualifications and finishing his secondary stud ies with an Outstanding High School Award (Premi Extraoridinari de Batxillerat). Pi Calleja entered the University of Barcelona (1923) to study Architecture and Mathematics—at that time, the two fields had many subjects in common [1,15,16]. Five years later, in 1928, Pi Calleja obtained his mathematics degree, again with the highest award. He then began to write several papers aimed at solving specific problems. He also began to collect biblio graphical notes, something that he would do with pleasure the rest of his life. He showed such strong abilities in mathematics that he was quickly granted a teaching position at the Faculty of Sciences in Barcelona. At the same time, he completed his

Pi Calleja started his active research into analytical questions in 1927, strongly influenced by two important mathematicians, Julio Rey-Pastor (1888–1962) [22,24] and Esteve Terrades (1883–1950) [25]. He participated in many seminars and activi ties [31] promoted by these two men [10], including the visits of Tullio Levi-Civita (1921), Jacques Hadamard (1921), Herman Weyl (1922), and Albert Einstein (1923). Pi Calleja was active also in the Center for Mathematical Studies (Centre d’Estudis Matemàtics), directed by Terrades, at the Institute for Catalan Studies (Institut d’Estudis Catalans, IEC). With a grant received from the Board for Advanced Studies (Junta de Ampliación de Estudios) [2,20,26,28], he spent 18 months at the University of Berlin (1933–1935), with the aim of becoming proficient in more specialized fields of mathematics. While in Berlin, he at tended lectures by Schur, Hammerstein, Bieberbach, and Re issner. With Terrades as his advisor, Pi completed a very im pressive Ph.D. His dissertation explored some of the important problems in the convergence of integrals depending on a vari able module and was published in 1936 by the Royal Academy of Sciences and Arts of Barcelona. Between 1935 and 1936, Pi Calleja taught Analysis and replaced Terrades as the director of the Center for Mathematical Studies. In 1936, he attended the International Congress of Architects, held that year in Paris.

* Claudi Alsina. Mathematics and Computer Science Division, ETSAB, Technical University of Catalonia. E-mail: claudio.alsina@upc.edu

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Civil War and exile (1936–1942) Pi Calleja was always active in political issues and by the time the Civil War broke out he held several positions in the Autono mous Government of Catalonia (Generalitat de Catalunya). At the end of the war he was forced to leave Barcelona and so, like many other academics and intellectuals, he fled to France [23]. He stayed briefly at a camp for refugees in Argelers (Fr. Argelès sur Mer) before continuing on to Argelers, to the house of his relatives in Sète. In 1939, he lectured for five months at the Henri Poincaré Institute in Paris and became member of the French Mathematical Society (Société Mathématique de France), nominated by Henri Léon Lebesgue and Paul Montel. Pi Calleja spoke Catalan, Spanish, English, French, German, and Italian. It was in Paris, while attending an advanced course on the French language, that he met Milena Balchich, who later became his wife. Around this time Rey-Pastor, who had an ex cellent position in Buenos Aires and was a major figure in Ar gentinean mathematics institutions, wrote to Pi Calleja to offer him a fixed position at the National University of Cuyo. Pi Calleja accepted and left for Argentina in 1942 [21,27].

Argentina (1942–1955) Pi Calleja held a position in San Juan, at the National University of Cuyo, and very soon became an active member of the group of mathematicians that Rey-Pastor had successfully attracted to Argentina: Beppo Levi [18], Alejandro Terracini, Alberto González, Agustín Durañona, J.C. Fignaux, Carlos Biggeri, José Babini, Manuel Balanzat, Juan Blaquier, Lluís A. Santaló, Alberto Sagastume, Fausto Toranzos, F. La Monza, Ernest Corominas [7], and later Alberto Calderón, M. Costlar, Rodolfo Ricabarra, among others. Pi Calleja was active in writing research papers and elegant mathematical monographs [4], in addition to giving seminars in many different Latin American countries, including Chile, Cuba [11,17], Ecuador, Panamá, Uruguay, and Venezuela [29,33,34]. In 1947, Pi Calleja went to Zagreb to marry Milena. The couple visited Spain for a few days before continuing on to Argentina. In 1949, Pi Calleja left San Juan to become full professor at the National University of La Plata (the city was called Eva Perón City for several years) [6]. As a professor in a science faculty, he enjoyed training engineers. He became general secretary of the Argentine Mathematical Union (Unión Matemática Argentina) and was the recipient of several academic awards in Cuba and France. From his list of publications, it is clear that the years in La Plata (1949–1956) were very important and productive ones.

Alsina

Barcelona and Madrid, Pi Calleja was chosen as full professor for a mathematics chair in Murcia, to teach Analysis. He re mained in Murcia until 1959, when he accepted a position in Zaragoza (until 1962), and then finally returned to Barcelona, after becoming full professor of mathematics at the School of Architecture [9]. He stayed there until his retirement in 1977. For many years he was plagued by Parkinson disease. He re tired in 1977, which also marked his receiving the Grand Cross of the Civil Order of Alfonso X the Wise (Gran Cruz de la Orden Civil de Alfonso X el Sabio). He died in 1986 in Barcelona [32].

Mathematical contributions by Pi Calleja Pi Calleja was a superb mathematician devoted to the field of Analysis. He had an encyclopedic knowledge of all the pub lished books and papers on topics that interested him, which is clearly evident in his writings and books [3,19,36]. That knowl edge also inspired contributions in which he clarified poorly un derstood concepts or reconsidered various proofs. As can be seen in the complete list of works included at the end of this paper, Pi Calleja wrote 55 publications plus many books and reviews. He devoted much of his research to integration, numerical series, various concepts of derivatives, parameters such as length and area, functional equations, theory of magnitudes, problems arising in physics, measure theory, functional analy sis, and several contributions to geometry. An important legacy of Pi Calleja’s work was his series of textbooks on Analysis, es pecially the three volumes of Analísis Matemático (1952, 1956, 1958), written with Julio Rey-Pastor and César A. Trejo. These were extremely important in Latin America [5,12–14,30,35] be cause they offered a modern interpretation of the main aspects of Analysis, incorporating recent results and trends in this topic. In parallel with his long teaching career, which he immensely enjoyed, he remained strongly devoted to research activities, even when the conditions were far from ideal.

Publications by Pere Pi Calleja The following bibliography contains the titles of scientific arti cles, books, and a selection of other publications written by Pere Pi Calleja. 1.

Return to Spain

In 1956, Pi Calleja decided to return with his family to Spain and to face the difficult situation of finding a university-based permanent position at a time where such positions were very few and required taking a national exam, with many qualified candidates applying. Although passed over for two positions in

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Resoluciones de problemas [196,198,199,...] (1928) Rev Matemática Hispano-Americana, 2a serie, 3(3):67-69, Madrid Sobre un ejemplo de desarrollo de Teixeira (1932) Rev Matemática Hispano-Americana, pp 241-243, Madrid Notas críticas sobre algunas obras (1933) Rev Matemáti ca Hispano-Americana num.1-2, Madrid Contribución a la teoría geométrica de la polarida (1933) Rev Matemática Hispano-Americana, núm. 3-4, Madrid Über die Konvergenzbedingungen der komplexen Form des Fourierschen Integrales (1936) Mathematische Zeitschrift 40:349-374, Berlin

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10.

11.

12.

13.

14. 15. 16.

17. 18. 19.

20. 21. 22.

23.

24. 25.

Sobre la convergencia de integrales dependientes de un nódulo variable (1936) Tesis. Memories de l’Acadèmia de Ciències i Arts de Barcelona. 3a época, 25(13):281-337, Barcelona Demostración aritmética de una propiedad sobre límites de diferencias y su aplicación al teorema de VivantiPringsheim (1936) Rev Matemática Hispano-Americana, tomo XI, 2a serie, 5-6:2-8, Madrid Note sur les intégrales singulières et leur application–la forme complexe de l’intégrale de Fourier (1940) Bulletin Soc Math de France 68:1-10 Sobre el concepto de integral (1942) Rev de la Sociedad Cubana de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, 1(1):19-27, La Habana, Cuba Sobre el concepto de integral (1942) Rev de la Sociedad Cubana de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas 1(2):58-62, La Habana, Cuba Sobre el concepto de integral (1943) Rev de la Sociedad Cubana de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas, 1(3):88-91, La Habana, Cuba Sobre el concepto de integral (1943) Rev de la Sociedad Cubana de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas 1(4):123-127, La Habana, Cuba Sobre la integral de Stieltjes (1943) Publicaciones del Instituto de Matemática. Univ Nac Litoral, V, Homenaje a J Rey Pastor, pp 3-27, Rosario Apuntes de Geometría Descriptiva (1943) Pub Univ Cuyo de San Juan Apuntes de Análisis Matemático (1943) Pub Univ Cuyo de San Juan Sobre el concepto de integral (1944) Rev de la Sociedad Cubana de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas 1(5):164-169, La Habana, Cuba Sobre el Lema de Pincherle (1944) Rev de la Unión Matemática Argentina, X, pp 15-18, Buenos Aires Problema de L.A. Santaló resuelto (1944) Rev de la Unión Matemática Argentina, X(2):39 Elementos de Fundamentación Matemática (1945) Cien cia y Técnica. Rev del C.E. de Ingeniería 104(514):269304, Buenos Aires Introducción al Algebra vectorial (1945) Pub Fac Ciencias Univ Nacional de Cuyo, Prólogo de J. Rey Pastor San Juan Ciudad Universitaria (45) Pub Rotary Club San Juan, Rep. Argentina, pp 3-12 Sobre orientación bibliográfica en Matemática (1946) Ciencia y Técnica, Rev del C.E. de Ingenieria 107(529):317, Buenos Aires La proyección conforme cilíndrica transversa de Lambert como introducción a las coordenadas de Gauss-Krüger (1946) Rev del Centro de Estudiantes de Ingenieria, pp 7-43, San Juan, Argentina Sobre la geometría del triangulo (1948) Mathematicae Notae, Año VIII, fasc. 3-4, pp 112-129 El tercero incluido en la contraparadoja de Russell (1949) Actas 1er. Congreso Nacional de Filosofia, pp 16241626, Mendoza (Argentina), y (1950) Mat Notae, fasc. 3-4, pp 152- 154

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26. Sobre la figura polar de una dada respecto de un círculo con centro en el baricentro (1949) Mathematicae Notae, Año IX, fasc. 1-2, pp 88-93 27. Puntos básicos sobre orden de los estudios y docencia universitària (1949) Ciencia e Investigación, tomo V, núm. 9, pp 382-383, Buenos Aires 28. Sobre determinación de singularidades de la serie de Taylor, mediante el argumento de sus coeficientes (1950) Rev Unión Matemática Argentina, vol. XIV, pp 226-231, Buenos Aires 29. Longitud y area (1950) Rev Matemática y Física Teórica 7(2):158-230, Tucumán 30. La objeción de Grandjot a la Teoria de Peano del número natural (1950) Mathematicae Notae, IX, fasc. 3-4, pp 143-151, La Plata 31. Sobre la derivación de las series de potencias (1950) Rev Fac Ing San Juan 32. Sobre la no-numerabilidad del continuo (1951) Rev de la Unión Matemática Argentina, vol. XV, pp 67-70, Buenos Aires 33. Sobre regularidad y convencionalismo en el concepto de magnitud física (1952) Mathematicae Notae, Años XII-XI II, pp 19-31, Buenos Aires 34. Sobre el concepto de integral (Derivación e Integración) (1952) Rev Soc Cubana Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas 2(6):188-199, La Habana 35. Análisis Matemático (1952) con J. Rey Pastor y A. Trejo, vol. I. Editorial Kapeluz, Buenos Aires 36. Sobre el concepto de integral (conclusiones) (1953) Rev Soc Cubana Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas 3(1):8-23, La Habana 37. Las ecuaciones funcionales de la teoria de magnitudes (1954) 2. Symposium de Matemáticas de Villavicencio, Mendoza, pp 199-280, Buenos Aires. 38. Singularidades sobre la circunferencia de convergència (1954) Pub Fac Ciencias Físico-matemáticas, Univ Nac Eva Perón V(1):1-27 39. El adelanto de la Matemática en la Argentina (1954) Cien cia e Investigación, tomo 10, núm. 12, pp 573-576 40. El teorema de incrementos finitos en funciones vecto riales de una variable real o compleja (1954) VI Jor Mat Arg y 1r Cong Int Arg, resumen en Rev UMA 16, pp 83 41. Recensiones bibliográficas en la revista Ciencia e Investi gación de la Asociación Argentina para el Progreso de las Ciencias (1954) tomo 10-11, a las obras de Levi B (93100), Stabler ER (125-127), Munroe ME (177-178), Tho mas GB (229-230), Struik DJ (262-264), Guedenko BV y Kolmogorov AN (415-417) 42. Los números derivonormados de funciones vectoriales (1955) Rev de la Unión Matemática Argentina y Asoc Físi ca Matemática, vol. XVII de Homenaje a Beppo Levi, pp 161-172, Buenos Aires 43. Forma de Zygmund del teorema de incrementos finitos para funciones vectoriales (abstract) (1955) 8a Jorn Mat Arg Rev UMA, XVI(4):162-163 44. Análisis Matemático (1956) con J. Rey Pastor y A. Trejo, vol. II. Editorial Kapeluz, Buenos Aires

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45. Sobre las definiciones y teoremas fundamentales de la teoría de la medida y de la integración (1958) Pub Rev Academia Ciencias Zaragoza, pp 165-196, Zaragoza 46. Análisis Matemático (1958) con J. Rey Pastor y A. Trejo, vol. III. Editorial Kapeluz, Buenos Aires 47. La Matemática en la formación universitaria (1959) Dis curso leído en apertura curso académico 1959-60, Pub Univ de Murcia 48. Sobre la existencia del espectro de un nucleo simétrico en las ecuaciones integrales de 2a. Especie (1959) Rev Las Ciencias, Año XXIV, núm. 4, Madrid 49. Sobre la determinación constructiva de la medida de Haas en los espacios métricos localmente compactos (1959) Rev Matemática Hispano-Americana, 4a serie, tomo XIX, núm. 1, pp 1-13, Madrid 50. Recensión bibliográfica sobre obra de C. Carathéodory (1959) Collectanea Mathematica 51. Sobre las definiciones y teorema fundamental de la teoria de la medida (1961) Actas 1a Reunión Matemáticos Es pañoles, Madrid 52. Sobre formalización de paradojas lógicas (1961) Pub Rev Academia Ciencias Zaragoza, pp 15-20 53. Sobre las condiciones mínimas que definen un grupo (manuscrito) (1962) Abstract en Congreso de Oporto de la Asoc Esp Progreso Ciencias, Oporto 54. Sobre la formalización de la contraparadoja de Russell (1964) Mathematicae Notae, vol. II, pp 147-151, Rosario, Argentina 55. El teorema de incrementos finitos para funciones vecto riales (1972) Collectanea Mathematica, vol. XXIII, fasc. 3, Barcelona

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References 1.

3. 4.

6. 7. 8.

9. 10.

11.

Bibliography reviewed by Pere Pi Calleja 12. 1.

Stabler ER (March 1954) An introduction to Mathematical Thought. Ciencia e Investigación (Asociación Argentina para el progreso de las Ciencias) 10(3):125-127 Munroe ME (April 1954) Introduction to measure and in tegration. Ciencia e Investigación (Asociación Argentina para el progreso de las Ciencias) 10(4):177-178 Thomas GB (May 1954) Calculus and Analytic Geometry. Ciencia e Investigación (Asociación Argentina para el progreso de las Ciencias) 10(5):229-230 Struik DJ (June 1954) Lectures in Analytic and Projective Geometry. Ciencia e Investigación (Asociación Argentina para el progreso de las Ciencias) 10(6):262-264 Guedenko BV, Kolmogorov AN (September 1955) Limit Distribution for seems of independent random variables. Ciencia e Investigación (Asociación Argentina para el progreso de las Ciencias) 11(9):415 Levi B (1945) Sistemas de ecuaciones analíticas en térmi nos finitos, diferenciales y en derivadas parciales. Rev Unión Matemática Argentina X(3):93-100

13.

14.

15. 16.

17.

18. 19.

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Alberdi R (1980) La formación profesional en Barcelona. Política, Pensamiento, Instituciones (1875-1923). Ed. Don Bosco, Barcelona Ausejo E, Millan A (1989) La organización de la investi gación matemática en España en el primer tercio del sig lo XX: El Laboratorio y Seminario Matemático de la Junta para Ampliación de Estudios e Investigaciones Científi cas. Llull 12:261-308 Amo J, Shelby C (1994) La obra impresa de los intelectu ales españoles en América (1936-1945), Madrid Amo J, Shelby C, Balanzat M (1947) Crítica bibliográfica a la obra de Pedro Pi Calleja, Introducción al álgebra vec torial. Rev Unión Matemática Argentina XII(3):150-152 Bibliografía (1952) Crítica bibliográfica al vol. I del Análi sis Matemático de J. Rey Pastor, P. Pi Calleja y C.A. Trejo. Ciencia y Tecnología 41, Unión Paramericana, Washington Boletín 101 (1950) Colegio Libre de Estudios Superiores, Buenos Aires Corominas E (1942) El Profesor Pedro Pi Calleja. Revista de la Unión Matemática Argentina VIII(4):139-141 ETSAB, Expendiente académico de Pedro Pi Calleja, Archivo de la ETSAB, Universidad Politécnica de Ca talunya Freixa E (1985) Arrels per a una Universitat. Pub Univ Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona Gali A (1986) Història de les institucions i del moviment cultural a Catalunya (1900-1931). Fundació A. Galí, Bar celona Gonzales MO (1942) El profesor Pi Calleja en la Universi dad de La Habana. Rev de la Sociedad Cubana de Cien cias Físicas y Matemáticas 1(1):34-35 JH (1953) Crítica bibliográfica al Vol. I del Análisis Matemático de J. Rey Pastor, P. Pi Calleja y C.A. Trejo. Rev Matemáticas Elementales, Univ Nac Colombia y Univ de los Andes II(4-5):121-124 Herrera FE (1946) Sobre el problema de la determinación del salto de funciones. Rev Mat y Física Teórica, Univ Nac Tucumán 5(1-2):255-288 Herrera FE (1952) Crítica bibliográfica al Vol. I del Análisis Matemático de J. Rey Pastor, P. Pi Calleja y C.A. Trejo. Rev Matemática y Física Teórica, Univ Nac Tucumán 9(12):89-92 Hormigon M (1981) El Progreso Matemático. Un estudio de la primera revista matemática española. Llull 4:87-115 Hormigon M (1988) Las matemáticas en España en el primer tercio del siglo XX. En: Sánchez Ron JM (ed) Cien cia y sociedad en España, El Arquero/CSIC, Madrid, pp 253-282 Labra M (1944) Discurso en memoria de Pablo Miquel. Rev de la Sociedad Cubana de Ciencias Físicas y Matemáticas 1(5):143-147 Levi B (1953) A propósito de la nota del Dr. Pi Calleja. Mathematicae Notae 9(3-4):155-159 Mathematical Reviews (American Mathematical Society),

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20.

21.

22.

23. 24. 25.

26.

IX-6-1945 (p. 203), II- 6-1946 (p. 44), III-12-1951 (p. 169), I-13-1952 (p. 5), I-13-1952 (p. 5), V- 13-1952 (p. 447), 14-XI-1953 (p. 1042), 17-1956 (p. 999), I-14-1953 (p. 28), IX-14-1953 (p. 735), III-16-1955 (p. 231), IV-17-1956 (p. 433), VII-18-1957 (p. 587) Moreno A, Sánchez Ron JM (1987) La Junta para Amplia ción de Estudios e Investigaciones Científicas: La vida breve de una fundación ahora octogenària. Mundo cientí fico 65:20-33 Ortiz EL (1988) Las relaciones científicas entre Argentina y España a principios de este siglo. En: Sánchez Ron JM (coord.) 1907-1987. La Junta para la Ampliación de Es tudios e Investigaciones Científicas 80 años después, 2:119-158 Ortiz EL, Roca A, Sánchez Ron JM (1989) Ciencia y téc nica en Argentina y España (1931-1949), a través de la correspondencia de Julio Rey Pastor y Esteban Terra das. Llull 12:33-150 Riera S (1983) Síntesi d’història de la ciència catalana. Ed. La Magrana, Barcelona Ríos S, Santaló LA, Balanzat M (1979) Julio Rey Pastor matemático. Instituto de España, Madrid Roca A, Sánchez Ron JM (1990) Esteban Terradas. Ciencia y Técnica en la España contemporanea. INTA y Ed. Serbal, Madrid Roca A (1988) Científicos catalanes pensionados por la Junta. En Sánchez Ron JM (coord.) II:349-379

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27. Rock D (1988) Argentina 1516-1987. Desde la coloniza ción española hasta Raul Alfonsín. Alianza, Madrid 28. Sánchez Ron JM, coord. (1988) 1907-1908. La Junta para Ampliación de Estudios 80 años después, vol. 2. CSIC, Madrid 29. Santaló LA, González MO, García G, Laguardia R (1951) Latin American Contribution to Scientific Progress: Math ematics. Unesco, Montevideo 30. Santaló LA (1960) Crítica bibliografía al vol. III del Análisis Matemático de J. Rey Pastor, P. Pi Calleja y C.A. Trejo. Ciencia e Investigación (Asoc Argentina para el Progreso de las Ciencias) 16(6):220-221 31. Sociedad Matemática Española (1928) Crónica concurso del año 1927. Revista Matemática Hispano-Americana, 2a serie, III(3):63 32. Trillas E (1986) Pi Calleja. Diari Avui, Barcelona 33. UMA Unión Matemática Argentina. (1945) Crónica de la UMA. Rev Unión Matemática Argentina, XI(2):70-76 34. UMA (1955) Crónica del coloquio sobre “Algunos proble mas matemáticos que se están estudiando en Latino América”. Rev Unión Mat Argentina XVI(3):127-128 35. Voelker D (1953) Crítica bibliográfica al Vol. I del Análisis Matemático de J. Rey Pastor, P. Pi Calleja y C.A. Trejo 36. Zentralblatt für Mathematik und Ihrer Grenzgebiete, 341950 (p 238), 39-1951 (p 392), 39-1951 (p 244), 371951 (p 333), 40-1951 (p 3), 44-1952 (p 47), 12-8-1936 (p 349), 6-1933 (p 301), 7-1933 (p 172)

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foreword distinguished lectures Margalef Prize Lecture 2010

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Evolution at the ecosystem level: On the evolution of ecosystem patterns

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Climate change on a live Earth

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Biodiversity: Origin, function and threats Celebration of Earth Day at the Institute for Catalan Studies, 2010

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The immediate future: Challenges and scales

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Energy from hydrogen. Hydrogen from renewable fuels for portable applications

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Global climate change in the Spanish media: How the conservative press portrayed Al Gore’s initiative

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Margalida Comas Camps (1892–1972): Scientist and science educator biography and bibliography

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Pere Pi Calleja (1907–1986)

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