Articles/Letters Crumbling roads
Tropical cyclones and climate change Following the devastation wrought by Cyclone Debbie, the independent Climate Council of Australia put together a fact sheet on the influence of climate change on cyclones: Climate change is likely to affect tropical cyclone behaviour in two ways. First, the formation of tropical cyclones most readily occurs when there are very warm conditions at the ocean surface and when the vertical temperature gradient through the atmosphere is strong.
Intensity As the climate continues to warm, the difference between the temperature near the surface of the Earth and the temperature higher up in the atmosphere is likely to decrease as the atmosphere continues to warm. As this vertical gradient weakens, it is likely that fewer tropical cyclones will form (DeMaria et al. 2001; IPCC 2012). Second, the increasing temperature of the ocean surface affects the intensity of cyclones (along with changes in upper atmosphere conditions), both in terms of maximum wind speeds and in the intensity of rainfall that occurs in association with the cyclone. This is because the storms draw energy from the surface waters of the ocean, and as more heat (energy) is stored in these upper waters, the cyclones have a larger source of energy on which to draw (Emanuel 2000; Wing et al. 2007). In summary, it is likely that fewer tropical cyclones will form as the climate warms, but a higher fraction of those that do will be intense, more damaging cyclones. Consistent with this basic physical understanding, a sta-
tistically significant increase in intense cyclone activity has been observed in the North Atlantic region since the 1970s (Kossin et al. 2007; IPCC 2013). However, for most regions around the world, trends in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity are difficult to discern because of the lack of long-term, consistent observational data. This is the case in Australia, where for the 1981 to 2007 period, no significant trends in the number of cyclones or their intensity were found (Kuleshov et al. 2010), although a comparison between tropical cyclone numbers in 1981–82 to 2012–13 shows a decreasing trend (Dowdy 2014).
Coastal flooding The most direct influence of climate change on the impacts of tropical cyclones is via coastal flooding. Typically the damage from tropical cyclones comes from: 1. Excessively high winds that directly damage built infrastructure and the natural environment; and 2. Coastal flooding caused by a storm surge, and the heavy rainfall that often accompanies the storm. A storm surge is a rise above normal sea level resulting from strong onshore winds and/or reduced atmospheric pressure. Storm surges, which accompany tropical cyclones, can cause extensive flooding of coastal areas. The area of seawater flooding may extend along the coast for hundreds of kilometres, with water pushing several kilometres inland if the land is low lying. The worst impacts of a storm surge occur when it coincides with a particularly high tide. The rise of sea levels globally because of climate change – due to warming oceans and
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melting ice sheets – means that storm surges are now riding on higher sea levels than they were earlier, increasing the extent and severity of flooding damage from cyclones and other weather systems that can drive storm surges. Because of climate change, storms are now occurring in a more energetic, moistureladen atmosphere – a recipe for more destructive storms. Further, destructive storms have huge social costs.
Mental distress Storms such as tropical cyclones can cause damage to property, infrastructure, and claim human lives. While storms can cause immense physical damage, they can also cause mental distress. Studies have shown that in the aftermath of severe storms, survivors demonstrated a 25 per cent increase in the onset of depression after the storm event. Emotional stress can undermine the resilience of individuals and communities, placing further physical, emotional and financial burdens onto recovery efforts (Martin 2015). Australia has experienced a stormy last five years, with some of the most damaging storm events in recent times occurring within this period. An increase is likely in the proportion of the most intense tropical cyclones, those with stronger winds and heavier rainfall such as Yasi, while the total number of tropical cyclones will likely decrease. A greater proportion of tropical cyclones may reach further south along Australia’s east and west coastlines (CSIRO and BoM 2015). Q Download the full fact sheet
from climatecouncil.org.au.
as their reason for threatening to fine me $2,200 if I entered the closed Gibberagee State Forest disingenuous and cynical. There are hundreds of forestry operations being undertaken in public native forests throughout NSW at the moment, yet the only two that are closed to public access are the two closest to me at Gibberagee and Bungawal-
We have the privilege of living on Friday Hut Road, Binna Burra, a road which is in quite a disgusting condition. The bridge over the Byron Creek sounds like a thunder storm when traffic crosses, and once across, the road has disintegrated so much that you have to slow considerably, then when you cross to the Ballina side, the road becomes smooth. We recently explored our Shire further and we travelled from Hayters Hill along the St Helena road to the Hinterland Way, and from that experience we found that, comparatively, Friday Hut Road is pretty good. We had to slow to 10km/h or 20km/h to negotiate the massive ruts and potholes. Then today, we decided to explore Grays Lane, Tyagarah, and from that experience, we decided that the St Helena road is actually not too bad at all. At the end of that challenging road we found that our beloved council wanted us to pay $8 for the privilege of parking there. We guessed they must be trying to be funny, so we didn’t pay. Ken Wake Binna Burra
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Forest trashing I find the Forestry Corporation’s professed concern for my safety (Echo, March 29)
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Letters to the Editor Send to Letters Editor Michael McDonald, fax: 6684 1719 email: editor@echo.net.au Deadline: Noon, Friday. Letters longer than 200 words may be cut. Letters already published in other papers will not be considered. Please include your full name, address and phone number for verification purposes.
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bin. In all other areas they put up signs around their active worksites where there are legitimate workplace and safety issues. At the site they expelled me from at Gibberagee, where I had been at the EPA’s invitation, logging had been completed months ago, it was not a worksite. That is why I believe that the reality is that continued on next page
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The Byron Shire Echo April 5, 2017 11