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Math Madness
March Madness. Once participating teams are announced, college basketball fans across the country rush to complete tournament brackets with the hope of winning office pools, online contests or just bragging rights. Filling out an NCAA bracket — predicting the outcome of each game within the tournament — is to March Madness what lighting fireworks is to the Fourth of July or eating turkey is to Thanksgiving. It’s become a part of American culture.
In 2009, Swift used a statistical model he developed to complete his tournament bracket. “The challenge in predicting tournament results is deciding, ‘How good is a team?’” he says. “So the idea, the basic premise of what I did, was quantify each team’s strength.” To do this, he developed a statistical model that assigned each qualifying team a “strength factor.” The higher the value of the strength factor, the better the team. “I kept it really simple,” says Swift. “I looked at two factors from every regular season game for every team — the result of the game and whether the game site was home, away or neutral.
“The appeal of everyone filling out a bracket is a big pull,” says Andrew Swift, an associate professor of mathematics who has been at UNO since 2006. “I’m not what you would call a huge basketball fan, but I do love the tournament.”
A UNO student assisted him with the time-consuming project. “Then we took all of the data and fed it into the statistical model that related the resulting data to a strength factor.”
Many bracket-fillers are quasi-fans like Swift. Others complete brackets without watching a single regular season game. They might base their predictions on the classic “gut feeling” — or simply pick the team with the cooler mascot.
Using the strength factors, he ranked the teams from highest to lowest then used the rankings to make his predictions.
Swift makes his predictions in less typical — but more analytical — fashion. He uses math. A native of England, Swift has a bachelor’s and master’s degree in mathematics from the University of Oxford. The self-proclaimed sports fan (“I can watch any sport,” he says) also has a doctor of science in operations research from George Washington University. He’s also an active member in the American Statistical Association’s section on Statistics in Sports who has served as a resource for various media outlets, including ESPN. It’s clear he enjoys applying what he knows to the subjects that pull his interest.
That year, the top four seeds — the same top four Swift predicted — made it to the Final Four. It was the first time in the tourney’s history that the top seeds had done so. Swift used the same statistical model to make predictions for the 2010 tournament but opted out in more recent years due to time constraints and other projects. He hopes to rejoin the bracket-filling masses for the 2013 tournament.
Cou Sav By Jenna Zeorian, University of Nebraska Foundation
“It’s a fun way to combine my love for sports and statistics,” he says. And he may have a better chance at winning an office pool than the Madness fan who chooses blue jerseys over orange jerseys.
A Longhorn Maverick steer — Sudden Sam — debuts at homecoming for his only appearance (he proves too unruly for handlers). Alumni Association Director Jim Leslie 1972 hauls the steer to Fort Niobrara Refuge in Valentine and trades him for a 6-month-old 300-pound calf — Longhorn Steer, U.S. 324. He’s later named Victor E. Maverick and debuts in 1973. Three students selected as handlers and outfitted with black Stetsons and UNO windbreaker jackets. Victor is kept in a pen at the north end of Caniglia Field. By 1977, his horns spread to nearly six feet, Victor is retired to a farm in Arlington, Neb.
Student Tim Rock organizes a UNO hockey team. One year later university grants it club status under coach Mike Kemp (later varsity coach). Marlin Briscoe becomes first OU grad to play in a Super Bowl (VII), helping Miami win 14-7 over Washington. He also plays in Super Bowl VIII, catching two passes for 19 yards in 24-7 Dolphin win over Minnesota.
1974
With March comes madness — the month-long NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Tournament in which 68 teams begin single-elimination play and just one emerges as national champion.
1973
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Walter Payton scores six touchdowns to lead Jackson State to 75-0 win over UNO.
UNO beats University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee 28-13 in first football game played on Caniglia Field’s Astroturf surface.