Aberdeen property prices up 4%... but what happens next?

Aberdeen property prices bucked the national trend and rose by nearly 4% last year, newly released data has confirmed.

Despite substantial economic headwinds, new figures from the ASPC show that over the course of 2022, property prices in the Granite City increased by 3.9% amid a flurry of new activity in the North Sea energy sector.

They also show a recovery from the market slump experienced following the oil downturn in 2014/15, with prices now showing as being up 1.2% over a five-year period.

However, there are further signs of the post-CV19 property rush coming to an end, with the number of transactions in Q4 2022 falling by -20.6% on Q4 2021.

John MacRae, Chairman of ASPC, welcomed the data as “evidence of resilience” in the North-east market.

“The report released by the Centre for Real Estate Research at the University of Aberdeen Business

School, for the fourth quarter of the 2022, while showing a slight downward shift in our local housing market, compared to the third quarter, in fact contains evidence of a degree of resilience,” he said.

“Bearing in mind the severe dislocation to money markets, caused by the Kwarteng mini budget, and the consequent reaction of mortgage lenders, most folk were expecting housing markets to be badly hit. There have been reports of serious dislocation in England, and we expected to see something similar here.

“What we have seen, however, is a market that has shown some signs of lessening activity, but other signs of maintaining, broadly speaking, the modest recovery shown throughout 2022.

“The fourth quarter is expected to be quieter due to perfectly normal seasonal fluctuations. What we see, therefore, this year, could be explained in those terms. I think we need to be careful not to read too much, either way, into the fourth quarter figures.

“I think we must expect there to have been some impact from the financial uncertainties, and we should acknowledge that, just at present, it is difficult to be able to say anything definite about the fourth quarter figures, other than they are, perhaps, better than we might have expected.”

And Mr MacRae said the early figures for Q1 2023 suggest a robust start to the new year.

He added: “At the time of writing, January 31, 2023, our records show that 2023 is starting off in a fairly normal way, with insertions building and sales, naturally, lagging behind. So far so good.

“Purely on instinct, I feel our local market has performed reasonably well, given external factors, and I think we should expect activity to continue, at reasonably normal levels.”

If you want to hear more about what the property market will do in 2023, join Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce for a special property breakfast this month.

The keynote speaker will be James Sproule, Chief Economist at Handelsbanken, who served as a Business Adviser to former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

We will also be bringing together a panel of local property experts from both the commercial and residential property sectors.

Scan the QR code below to book your place!

March 09, 2023 | 07:00 - 09:00

With property prices predicted to tumble across the UK in 2023, can Aberdeen buck the trend once again? Join our panel of residential and commercial property experts, and financiers, to hear what this year has in store.

May 23, 2023 | 07:00 - 09:00

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