Wednesday 9 August 2023

P14

INFLATION PANIC: IT’LL BE OVER BY CHRISTMAS*

CHRIS DORRELL

INFLATION WILL return to close to the Bank of England’s two per cent target by the end of the year –in 2025.

According to forecasts from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), inflation is forecast to fall to 5.2 per cent by the end of this year, before falling to 3.9 per cent by the end of 2024.

Beyond next year, the think tank forecasts inflation to fall to 2.3 per cent in 2025, with it remaining marginally above the two per cent target until at least 2027.

NIESR also warned that there were “significant risks” to its forecasts which could result in inflation being higher than anticipated.

The forecasts come despite the latest inflation figures showing a faster than expected drop in inflation. In June, inflation increased 7.9 per cent on last year, the slowest rate since last March.

“While headline inflation eased by more than expected in June, it remains the case that we have yet to see a significant movement in underlying inflationary pressures in the economy,” NIESR said.

SUMMER SHELTER OUR PICK OF THE BEST (COVERED) TERRACE BARS P17

ELECTORAL COMMISSION

Cyberattack exposes UK voter data

ANNA MOLONEY

THE ELECTORAL Commission yesterday apologised after it was revealed its systems had been the subject of a cyberattack, exposing the names and addresses of 40m UK voters to “hostile actors”.

The hack, which went undetected for 14 months after first breaching the commission’s systems in August 2021, gave the attackers access to copies of electoral registers from between 2014 and 2022. The attack was publicly disclosed yesterday, after being discovered last October.

NIESR pointed out that although high energy costs have now “fallen out” of the CPI index, other components –such as food and services –were now driving price increases.

“As a result of the original inflation shock, inflationary pressures have permeated indirectly to other areas of the economy,” the report said, which would likely force the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy further.

Stubborn inflation could also indicate that “a behavioural change has taken place... which is maintaining inflation above target despite monetary tightening”.

Higher for longer inflation could cause major headwinds for growth as it would lead to tighter credit conditions, which would pile more pressure onto businesses and households.

Amid persistently high inflation, NIESR predicted that it will take until the end of 2024 for UK GDP to surpass its pre-pandemic level, with the think tank highlighting five years of lost economic growth.

Although the UK is forecast to avoid a recession, GDP is expected to grow just 0.4 per cent this year and 0.3 per cent in 2024 –an election year.

The Electoral Commission said the breach was unlikely to lead to a meddling in elections due to the “dispersed” and largely paper-based UK voting system.

“We know which systems were accessible to the hostile actors, but are not able to know conclusively what files may or may not have been accessed,” Shaun McNally, the Electoral Commission’s chief executive, said. Significant measures have now been taken to improve security, he added.

Andrew Rose, the chief information security officer for Europe at US cybersecurity firm Proofpoint, said the attack was “no surprise” but “still incredibly serious as undermining the democratic process”.

The Information Commissioner’s Office said it was looking into the incident.

Mamma mia, Meloni! European bank shares tank after Italian tax raid on lenders

CHRIS DORRELL

SHARES in European banks fell after the Italian government announced a windfall tax on banks who have seen bumper profits thanks to higher interest rates.

Late on Monday night, Italy’s

populist government led by Giorgia Meloni (pictured) agreed to impose a one-off 40 per cent tax on extra-profits, defining extra-profits as when net interest income has grown beyond three per cent for 2022 and beyond

six per cent for 2023.

The move, which follows similar policies from governments in Hungary and Spain, sent shares in Italy’s largest banks tumbling.

Shares in banks across Europe fell as investors

fretted that the move may be replicated elsewhere.

In France, BNP Paribas fell 3.5 per cent while Societe Generale’s share price fell 2.8 per cent.

Filippo Alloatti, head of financials at investment manager Federated Hermes, commented: “Although

measures like windfall taxes are easy to introduce, they can be challenging to retract due to political reasons.”

Shaun Richards, an independent London economist, tweeted “there is nothing so permanent as a temporary tax” in response to the news.

YES WE KEN WHY BRITS COULD LEARN A THING OR TWO FROM THE BARBIE BLOCKBUSTER

STANDING UP FOR THE CITY

Immigration rhetoric risks turning Britain, not just the Tory party, nasty

“F**koff back to France,” says the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party, when asked about migrants using small boats to cross the channel. Not an overdone parody; Britain in 2023, and the words of Lee Anderson, truly the Churchill of his age. Charming.

This is not the place to go into the wheres and wherefores of the government’s small boats policy. Clearly, France remains a civilised country; equally so, it’s not difficult to see why an Englishspeaking migrant might find these shores more appealing than the banlieues of Paris. The issue is not the policy but the rhetoric. Doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday was a British tourist board ad from the 1970s,

THE CITY VIEW

published in Japan. “You have 50 million British friends,” it reads, alongside a picture of a young couple, a beefeater, a City gent in a bowler hat and a mildly problematic image of a Scotsman, complete with a kilt and a sporran. “Isn’t it about time you visited some of them? They’re helpful. Fun. Kind. Pleased to show you around.”

Words matter –not just for winning elections, but for a country’s image abroad. Our greatest strength is our soft power, and a reputation for being open and tolerant. The reality remains

petrol tanks Filling

ROUND OF A-PAWS A fluffy holidaymaker impresses in photo competition

this country is a better place to build a life, as a migrant, than vast swathes of Europe. But whilst Anderson and others may feel they can be rude to those risking their lives –and entering the UK illegally –on small boats without insulting the millions of migrants already here, or those who might want to, the truth is they can’t. The Conservatives were once told by an up and coming backbencher, one Theresa May, that they risked becoming seen as the nasty party. That warning would be well repeated today. And, post-Brexit, it matters more that our political leaders –a position to which Anderson has been given an unlikely promotion –watch their words when talking about migrants, legal or otherwise, if we want to remain a talent magnet.

bp’s wider transformation is underway. Whilst today we’re mostly in oil & gas, we’ve increased global investment into our lower carbon & other transition businesses from around 3% in 2019 to around 30% last year.

AS BRITS still patiently await the promised summer weather, some cheer from sunnier climes in the Lastminute.com national photo competition. The winners, including our happy Holland visitor above, will be displayed on the London Eye.

Water firms risk £800m payout after pollution lawsuits

DANNY HALPIN

SIX ENGLISH water companies are to face legal action over allegations of underreporting pollution incidents and overcharging customers.

Severn Trent Water, Thames Water, United Utilities, Anglian Water, Yorkshire Water and Northumbrian Water could end up paying over £800m in compensation to more than 20m customers if the cases are successful.

Professor Carolyn Roberts, an environmental and water consultant represented by Leigh Day Solicitors, claims these water companies have broken competition laws by misleading the Environment Agency and the regulator Ofwat.

She alleges they have been underreporting the number of sewage discharges, resulting in customers being “unfairly overcharged” for wastewater services,

SEASON WINNER Quilter cheers strong first half results

and that had sewage discharge reporting been accurate it would have lowered customer bills.

The first claim, brought on behalf of eight million people against Severn Trent Water, is estimated to be worth more than £330m.

Further claims will be brought against the other companies in what Leigh Day said is the first environmental collective action case of its kind.

Water UK said the accusations are “entirely without merit” and that 99 per cent of sewage works are legally compliant.

Roberts said: “Like many others across the country, I have viewed with horror the escalating number of stories in the media regarding the volume of sewage discharged into our waterways and on to our beaches.

“The population of the UK has a right to expect that our rivers, lakes and seas will generally be clean, except under exceptional circumstances.”

SHARES in Quilter jumped 13 per cent yesterday after the asset manager reported a two per cent rise in assets under management and administration (AuMA) to £101.7bn in the first six months of the year. The rugby union sponsor also recorded core net inflows in the first half of £700m.

Abrdn shares slump after clients pull £4.4bn

CHRIS DORRELL

SHARES in Abrdn slumped yesterday after the FTSE 100 fund manager reported a major fall in assets under management and administration (AuMA) in the first half of the year.

beginning of this year as it reported net outflows of £4.4bn in the first six months.

Revenue in the segment was 15 per cent lower than last year reflecting net outflows.

CEO Stephen Bird said: “If 2022 was one of the hardest investing years in living memory, 2023 is shaping up to be equally challenging. Geopolitical risk is back. Inflation is back. Credit risk is back.” PA

AuMA dropped to £495.7bn, down from £500bn at the

Shares in the vowel-deprived asset manager closed down 11.7 per cent.

Outflows were concentrated in its investment arm as clients moved away from equities and into debt products and cash.

bp’s transformation is underway – and you can see it coming to life at our retail sites across the UK. We’re providing our quality fuels to keep drivers moving today, and rolling out bp pulse chargers where people need them – including at up to 180 forecourts by the end of the year – helping with the switch to electric vehicles. And whether our customers are filling up or charging up, they can enjoy a great tasting coffee from Wild Bean Cafe at many of our sites before getting back on the road.

Increasing investment in the transition to lower carbon energy and keeping oil and gas flowing where it’s needed. That’s our strategy.

Fifth of UK importers altered supply chains as China tensions flare up

JACK MENDEL

MORE than a fifth of UK importers have been forced to alter supply chains as a result of geopolitical tensions, with China in sharp focus, a new survey has found.

Some 20.5 per cent of companies, which are importers, have altered supply chains as a result of global tensions, according to a survey of more than 1,000 businesspeople by the Institute of Directors. This dropped to 14.9 per cent for

firms in general.

On top of the fifth of firms who have already made the move, almost 15 per cent of importers said they were considering doing so.

While the overwhelming majority, 58.4 per cent, said their supply chains had not been affected by global tensions, more UK business are looking for greater stability in their supply chains.

“It is clear businesses are sensing geopolitical shaped clouds on the horizon, particularly whilst China’s

IWG posts record results thanks to hybrid ‘big bang’

GUY TAYLOR

BOOMING demand for hybrid working saw workspace provider IWG, which owns Regus, net a record £1.7bn in system-wide revenue in the first half, up 16 per cent year-on-year.

In results published yesterday, IWG also reported a near 48 per cent yearon-year jump in ebitda to £198m, as the flexi-working specialist benefitted from a global trend towards hybrid business models.

IWG chief exec Mark Dixon hailed the “record” results.

“We continue to grow as expected, producing a record period for IWG with our highest ever revenue in our over 30-year history… We have done this through a combination of higher demand for flexible work products [and] improved pricing and cost discipline,” he said.

He noted the first six months had seen a “continuation of the ‘Big Bang’ we started seeing in 2022, when the continuing impact of the Covid-19 pandemic finally led to the lift-off of the hybrid model that some of us have been antic-

KNOWING ME, KNOWING AUDOO Music licensers partner with ABBA-backed Audoo

standing with the US, Russia and Taiwan remains uncertain,” Emma Rowland, a trade policy advisor at the Institute of Directors, said.

“The pandemic, coupled with the invasion of Ukraine, has exposed vulnerabilities in international supply chains and an over reliance on countries perceived to be high-risk to the UK,” she said.

“Ultimately, firms are pursuing long-term stability in their supply chains, so they can provide certainty to their own end customers.”

AUDOO, a music tech company backed by ABBA star Björn Ulvaeus, has partnered with British music licensers to improve royalty distribution to musicians through tech which detects music being played in bars and shops.

ipating for many years.”

Discussing its plans for the year ahead, the FTSE 250 firm said that the majority of its revenues had been “denominated in or linked to US dollars” and, alongside volatility in sterling, this had prompted the board to review IWG’s reporting currency, “irrespective of listing venue”.

In later comments to The Times, however, Dixon said that moving the firm’s London listing was “something the board is thinking about all the time”.

“Most of our customers, most of our users and most of our revenue are from the US; it’s not that there’s a problem with the UK market, it’s that the US may be a more appropriate market,” he

Despite netting record revenues, IWG maintained a “cautiously optimistic” outlook for the year ahead, citing FX headwinds and a “challenging economic and competitive environment” as a result of high Shares finished up one per cent.

Holiday Inn owner says it expects travel to fully recover by 2025 after strong half year revenues

LAURA MCGUIRE

HOLIDAY INN owner

Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) yesterday reported a 23 per cent rise in revenues in its half year results, with the chain bolstered by a “healthy” demand for travel.

The British hotel group also said operating profit rose 27 per cent to $479m (£375m) up from $377m in the same period last year.

Total revenues rose 24 per cent to $2.2bn and average occupancy levels across its over 6,000 hotels globally

Liontrust given green light for GAM takeover amid shareholder battle

CHRIS DORRELL

LIONTRUST yesterday announced it had secured the approval of the City watchdog for its proposed takeover of the ailing Swiss fund manager GAM Holdings.

Liontrust described the approval as a “major step forward” in the team as it enables the fund manager to take

control of GAM’s UK regulated entities.

The green light from the Financial Conduct Authority follows permission from FINMA, the Swiss regulator, and the central bank of Ireland.

Applications are in progress in Luxembourg, Italy and Hong Kong with decisions expected in the next three months.

The update comes amid a fractious takeover battle between Liontrust and a group of rival shareholders called NewGAMe, backed by French tycoon Xavier Niel, which opposed Liontrust’s £96m offer for “undervaluing” the firm.

GAM will hold an extraordinary general meeting on 18 August where shareholders will vote on proposals.

was up nine per cent compared to last year, just 1.3 per cent lower than 2019.

IHG said it expects occupancy to be restored to over 96 per cent of 2019 levels in 2023, and to be almost fully recovered by 2025.

The group’s budget chain Holiday Inn Hotels opened seven hotels during the period and signed on another 19, including a site in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

It is the group’s first major update under the reign of new chief executive Elie Maalouf who took over

from former head Keith Barr in June.

“Our teams have delivered strong results in the first half, with financial performance, hotel openings and signings all significantly above prior year comparisons,” Maalouf said.

The new boss noted “very healthy” travel demand, with business travel up along with a rebound in demand in China.

Shares in the group rose to close up 2.33 per cent after the update, nearing its record highs from earlier this year.

The Holiday Inn owner reported occupancy levels just 1.3 per cent shy of pre-pandemic levels

Liontrust’s takeover provoked backlash from a rival group of shareholders

IWG boss Mark Dixon

UK could see a £111bn boost if it nurtures airlines

GUY TAYLOR

THE UK could benefit to the tune of £111bn and create over 629,000 local jobs by 2050 if it stays competitive as a hub for airlines to be based here.

Transport consultancy Steer’s report, commissioned by industry body Airlines UK, said propping up Britishbased carriers boosts local employment and supply chains, whilst financing public services through national insurance and VAT.

Each UK-based aircraft directly supports 400 jobs and adds £27m GVA to the economy, as opposed to 100 jobs and £7m GVA when overseas airlines operate UK routes, analysis of data from pre-pandemic years 2018 and 2019, shows.

It comes after major British carriers including Easyjet, Virgin Atlantic and British Airways warned in March that a since confirmed inflation-linked

hike to Air Passenger Duty (APD) tax –a duty unique to the UK and which charges based on how far passengers fly –would push up costs for consumers and affect demand.

Concerns surrounding the “punitive” APD hike followed years of jostling over the tax, with the sector warning in 2019 it had impacted the UK’s international connectivity and contributed to “a cost base that hampers the ability of UK airlines to open new viable routes”.

Tim Alderslade, of Airlines UK, said that the research highlighted “the importance of keeping the UK a competitive place to base and grow an airline”.

Responding to the report’s findings, aviation minister Baroness Vere said the UK is “a global leader in aviation connectivity and innovation, supporting jobs and businesses across

City Airport’s new scanners see security check time fall to 4 mins

GUY TAYLOR

LONDON City Airport has said its new high-tech CT scanners have made the airport more efficient and improved passengers’ experience.

The airport told City A.M. that the technology had enabled it to process up to 30 per cent more passengers per hour through security, contributing to

Fine stays for drug firms that hiked prices

AUGUST GRAHAM

THE COMPANIES behind a drug whose price was hiked from £20 to £248 per pack in just eight years will be fined a combined £84m after a tribunal upheld the competition watchdog’s decision.

The Competition Appeal Tribunal yesterday endorsed “all the main elements” of the Competition and Markets Authority’s (CMA) decision. However, it reduced the overall fine for the three businesses from around £101m.

The CMA said that the price of a packet of liothyronine tablets had increased by more than 12-fold between 2009 and 2017.

The only supplier of the tablets, used to treat thyroid hormone deficiency, was Advanz.

a 30 per cent year-on-year reduction in overall queue times.

The new tech enabled it to become the first major UK airport to scrap the 100ml limit rule on liquids carried through security.

Advanz is currently owned by Advanz Pharma, but previous owners Cinven and HgCapital also share in the fine.

Advanz Pharma will pay £40.9m, Cinven £37.1m and Hg £6.2m, the tribunal decided. Cinven declined to comment, Advanz Pharma and Hg have been contacted.

The average time it takes to conduct security checks is now a zippy three minutes and 45 seconds, down from seven minutes in 2022. PA

The airport said the tech enabled it to check up to 30 per cent more passengers per hour

Glencore profits halve on back of falling coal prices

NICHOLAS EARL

GLENCORE suffered a sharp drop in pre-tax profits in the first six months of trading this year as the boom in commodity prices finally eased.

The FTSE 100 company yesterday posted a more than 50 per cent decline in earnings year-on-year, down from $18.9bn (£14.8bn) to $9.4bn, while revenues dropped 20 per cent from $134.4bn to $107.4bn in the first six months of the year.

The Swiss mining giant attributed the downturn to the normalisation of wholesale costs, after bumper trading following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which saw energy prices climb to record highs.

In particular, lower coal pricing combined with inflationary impacts on production have eaten into the company’s profits.

Energy buyers turned to coal when gas prices soared in a bid for cheaper supplies, a shift which highly benefit-

ted Glencore.

To appease shareholders, Glencore’s chief executive Gary Nagle yesterday confirmed further shareholder buybacks, with “top-up” returns of $2.2bn, meaning investors have now pocketed $9.3bn this year.

“The strength of our diversified business model across industrial and marketing, focusing on metals and energy, has again proved itself adept in a range of market conditions,” Nagle said.

Meanwhile, the company’s net debts soared from $75m to $1.5bn, following a hefty $2.5bn in capital expenditure and a total tax bill of $2.7bn to Australia and Colombia. This outlay was chiefly spent on purchasing the balance of the Mara copper project in Argentina for $1.25bn and acquiring a minority stake in Alunorte, a massive alumina refinery in Brazil.

Shares in the miner dropped to close down almost three per cent yesterday, though Jefferies maintained its ‘buy’ stance on the firm’s stock.

Government will have to be ‘brave’ to meet net zero, says former energy head

NICHOLAS EARL

THE GOVERNMENT will have to be “brave” in the face of local opposition to its electrification plans, including hundreds of miles of new pylons, a former head of energy has warned.

Adam Bell, head of policy at consultancy group Stonehaven and former head of energy at the department for business, energy and

industrial strategy, told City A.M. that lump sum payments for local households were unlikely to be enough to convince opposition to support new projects.

“It really depends on how brave the government is feeling,” he said, when commenting on the potential impact of Nick Winser’s recommendations into grid reform last week.

In his freshly published review, the

electricity markets commissioner and former chief executive of National Grid called for the speeding up of grid connections through a ‘carrot and stick’ approach. Paying local households lump sum payments was one proposal. However, Bell warned such an approach may not be enough to sway local opposition, while the measure also risked a “political cost”.

A landmark report last week called for a reform of the UK’s grid system

WOUND UP BY THE WEATHER? Gloomy, overcast UK summer yields one winner as wind turbines boosted by blustery breezes

RENEWABLE energy generation has more than met demand this summer, with blustery July weather propelling wind turbines while also lowering demand for air conditioning. “Renewable energy generation has helped to keep energy prices down over the summer in spite of disruptions to gas supplies,” Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec, told City A.M.

Ex-Britishvolt boss slams lack of plan for EVs

NICHOLAS EARL AND GUY TAYLOR

THE GOVERNMENT lacks “innovative thinking” and a “joined up industrial strategy” to support the UK’s electric vehicle industry, the former boss of Britishvolt told City A.M., as a takeover bid for the collapsed battery start-up hangs by a thread.

The fiery backlash follows a statement from EY – the administrators for Britishvolt – that Aussie buyer Recharge Industries had missed a funding deadline for its takeover, which was agreed back in February.

EY confirmed to City A.M. that discussions with Recharge are ongoing and that it has not pulled out of the takeover deal.

Orrai Nadjari, founder and former chief executive, said that the com-

NEW DIGS Property developers take space in St James’s Square as they plot expansion

Cornish Lithium secures vital £54m lifeline

NICHOLAS EARL

CORNISH Lithium yesterday secured a vital cash injection after fears for its future.

pany’s spiral into administration in January was a consequence of “external market forces”, but that the “biggest issue” was a lack of industrial strategy and innovation from the government.

The firm’s former comms chief Ben Kilbey said Britishvolt’s collapse “from one of the biggest, and most positive, battery narratives in the UK to a basket case” highlighted the need for a “strong industrial strategy”. “

A Department for Business and Trade spokesperson said: “We are developing a globally competitive EV supply chain in the UK by unlocking private investment in gigafactories like the landmark investment of over £4bn by Tata Group.” Recharge was approached for comment.

Dentons cuts off China unit as Beijing redraws corporate laws

CITY A.M. REPORTER

LAW FIRM Dentons said it has been left with “no option” but to spin out its China business as Beijing implements a raft of new corporate regulations. The firm, which operates in more than 80 countries, said in a statement that the regulatory environment, with changing requirements for law firms

on data privacy, cybersecurity, capital controls and governance “has left us no option but to make this change”.

It added that the new mandates “are incompatible with our ability to operate a global firm which protects our clients’ interests”. Dacheng, as it is known in China, will now operate as a separate, standalone law firm.

The miner will gain a £53.6m boost from three parties, which will help fund its plans to develop a supply chain of lithium compounds for electric vehicles.

This includes a £24m investment from the state-backed UK Infrastructure Bank, the same sum from US-based private equity fund EMG and £5.6m from the firm’s largest institutional shareholder Tech Met.

News of the funding comes after it reported financial difficulties back in June, warning that it needed to secure a £10m cash injection to “ensure the business can meet its financial commitments”.

Cornish Lithium chief executive Jeremy Wrathall told City A.M. this was a “fantastic day for Cornwall and for the UK”.

He predicted it will be on course to deliver 10 per cent of the 80,000 tonnes of lithium the UK will need every year by 2030 to make EVs and develop major renewable projects.

GODWIN has extended its presence in the capital, doubling its floor space with a new capital HQ in St James’s Square. The square has become the hub of a growing finance community in Mayfair, with hedgies and advisory firms increasingly clustered there.

How City A.M. covered the firm’s collapse in January

THE NOTE BOOK

More Sir Humphries?

Ministers need to say no to ever-growing army of mandarins

IT’s been a good few years for wannabe Sir Humphreys. The Taxpayers’ Alliance has found that between 2016 and 2023, the number of civil servants increased by more than the entire regular forces of the British Army, in the sharpest rise in at least 50 years.

And this won’t just infuriate the defence secretary Ben Wallace, who has been pressing for an increase in defence spending. It will also be grim reading for hard-pressed taxpayers, because the civil service annual salary bill has leapt by 60 per cent to £15.5bn.

It’s not hard to see how the pandemic led to large increases in civil service headcount. After all, many businesses and people required urgent support, and an expansion in capacity was, at least at the time, obviously the right thing to do.

But now that we no longer have mass testing and emergency measures in place to support businesses, you’d expect to see the number of civil servants start to

FAIL TO PLAN, PLAN TO FAIL

head back down. Alas, that’s not what we’re seeing.

We all know that people are taking a hit to their living standards.

One of the key pressures on pay packets is coming from high taxes, and while welfare, healthcare and pensions are left unreformed, it’s going to be hard to get that burden on a downward trajectory.

In the meantime, politicians have to be honest about what the state can reasonably be expected to do.

All too often, the answer to any perceived ill is for the government to spend more taxpayers’ money. The pandemic only sharpened the sense of politicians controlling every aspect of people’s lives, but some serious thought is needed about winding down unnecessary functions of government.

That’s the only way to control costs. And dealing with the cost of government crisis means we can give taxpayers some much needed respite.

By all accounts, Natwest had always known what would happen should it lose its CEO at short notice, as happened with Dame Alison Rose when she stepped down a fortnight ago. Whether the same could be said for my club Spurs, seemingly in danger of losing Harry Kane, days before the start of the season and with no obvious plan for sourcing a replacement, is another thing entirely. The whole episode looks like a lesson in the value of contingency planning.

£ Don’t bother trying to ring HMRC for self assessment help: they’re on a summer break. In fact, the self assessment phone line was shut off back in June and will remain out of action until September. HMRC insists that you can speak to a web adviser online, and perhaps one day soon AI and chatbots will be able to solve every issue that taxpayers face. Although I’d wager that even the galaxy-brains in Silicon Valley would struggle with the problems arising from our complex tax code.

Where interesting people say interesting things. Today, it’s John O’Connell, chief executive of the

£ Anyone who has visited Cardiff on match day knows it’s a special experience, especially when it’s Wales vs England. An already exciting and dynamic city becomes a cauldron of noise, colour and (usually) friendly rivalry as locals and visitors spend their cash and enjoy the festivities. You can’t help but imagine what damage could be done if a tourism tax was brought in, as is planned by the Sennedd. Insatiable politicians once again target the hospitality industry as a cash cow.

Taxpayers’ Alliance

CAN I QUOTE YOU ON THAT?

If Jamie Oliver is the fun police, Chris van Tulleken is the Taliban.

Christopher Snowdon of the Institute of Economic Affairs reviews the latest fad diet bestseller on ‘ultra-processed food’. Suffice to say, Chris didn’t quite buy the main arguments.

ESCAPING THE NOISE –SORT OF City favourite Third Space gyms to offer ‘sound bath’ class for stressed out professionals

THIRD SPACE’s luxury gyms in the City and Canary Wharf may be better known for the weight machines but a new ‘mind and body’ experience is on its way. Yoga teachers will soon be delivering unique soundscapes –using gongs, crystal bowls, chimes and percussion instruments –to give office workers a chance to switch off from the sound of keyboards, coffee machines and incessant mobile phone beeps.

Softbank’s ‘offence

ANTON BRIDGE

JAPAN’s Softbank Group yesterday posted a surprise loss but said it was dipping its toes back into new investments after its Vision Fund unit returned to the black for the first time in six quarters.

The Vision Fund unit booked an investment gain of about 160bn yen ($1.1 billion) for the April-June period, helped by an increased valuation for Arm, the chip designer slated for an initial public offering

mode’

later this year.

yields mixed quarter

Without the fillip from Arm, the picture was less rosy with the company’s Vision Funds reporting a combined loss of 13bn yen.

The investment giant has been in “defence mode” since May 2022 after tech valuations crashed due to sharply higher interest rates and jitters that hit the global banking sector. But this June, founder and CEO Masayoshi Son said he was planning to shift to “offence” mode amid excitement over advances in

artificial intelligence.

That shift was borne out in the first-quarter results, with chief financial officer Yoshimitsu Goto telling reporters yesterday that the company was “timidly” embarking on selective new investments.

Softbank made investments totalling $1.8bn in the quarter. That’s after paring them right back to around $500m for the previous three quarters.

Shares were trading up around 2.5 per cent yesterday afternoon.

Beyond Meat shares plummet as vegan products prove too pricey

LAURA MCGUIRE

BEYOND Meat yesterday slashed its annual forecast for the year on the back of falling revenues as customers proved more reluctant to buy into pricey fake meat alternatives amid the cost of living crisis.

The US company, which supplies its vegan plant-based burger patties to McDonald’s, saw revenues slump 30 per cent in the second quarter.

The group said net revenues for the year are now expected to be in the

range of $360m to $380m. Meanwhile, gross profits came in at $2.3m compared to a loss of $6.2m last year.

Shares in the Nasdaq-listed firm plummeted over 20 per cent after the update yesterday.

Beyond Meat blamed “softer demand” in the vegan plant-based meat category amid high inflation and rising interest rates for the drop in sales.

AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould said the firm’s specialist focus was part of the

Pawnbroker H&T reports soaring first half profits

LAURA MCGUIRE

BRITAIN’s largest pawnbroker H&T yesterday reported soaring profits for the first six months of the year as Brits sought out quick cash amid the cost of living crisis.

The firm reported a 31 per cent rise in profit before tax to £8.8m in its first half results published yesterday. Its pledge book, which includes shortterm loans linked to customers’ belongings, grew 14 per cent in the six months ending 30 June, reaching £114.6m, up from £85.1m compared to last year.

The cost of loans handed out also “modestly” increased, with mean pledge lending rising to £423 compared to £405 and median pledge lending value up at £200, an increase from the £185 at the end of last year.

The strong results came as the pawnbroker expanded its UK presence, with H&T adding eight new stores in the first half, which, taking account for two closures, took the number of stores it operates to 273.

The broker also said its retail division grew 11 per cent to £23m, as it was boosted by online-originated sales.

“Further store openings are in course for the remainder of the year and be-

yond,” the firm said, while also committing to a “major redevelopment” of its online offering.

In times of economic turndown the pawn industry is a sector that tends to perform as people grow desperate to get extra cash.

However, H&T said that punters are paying back their loans earlier when they are able to do so, with the average pay back completed in 97 days compared to 108 days last year.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said the company had been doing “incredible well” over the past year and added “if the economy does fall into recession, one might expect H&T to do even better”.

Chris Gillespie, H&T chief executive, said: “Following the capital raise in October 2022, we set out our plan for increased investment in the group’s operational capabilities and store portfolio to capitalise on the growth opportunity presented to the group in the medium term.”

“I am delighted with the progress we have made and the momentum with which we enter the busy second half of the year.”

Shares nudged up marginally yesterday, closing 0.75 per cent in the green.

problem, with larger, more diversified rivals able to better protect themselves against macroeconomic volatility.

“Larger diversified food producers are eating Beyond Meat’s lunch, launching their own plant-based products which, thanks to their scale, they can sell at more attractive price points.”

It comes after rival brand Meatless Farm was rescued from collapse by earlier this year, after the firm was plunged into administration due to a lack of demand.

Beyond Meat supplies plant-based patties to McDonald’s and is also sold in supermarkets

Nanoco targets commercial market by 2024

JESS JONES

NANOTECH company Nanoco has said it is closer to commercial production than any other time in its history as it uses the proceeds of a legal battle with Samsung “to generate further value from its IP.”

The Manchester-based firm makes cadmium-free quantum dots, a vital part of a host of anticipated technological development.

In a trading update published yesterday, the 20 year old Londonlisted firm said it has expanded its workforce and made “significant progress” with a European and major Asian supply chain customer as it pursues possible IP infringers.

IT’S A SIGN OF THE TIMES

LIDL AND ALDI: The discount grocers have taken a huge chunk out of the market share of their more expensive competitors over recent years

B&M: Some 30 new stores are on the way for the discount retailers as it looks to catch up with growing, UK-wide demand

Tesla ‘master of coin’ quits after 13 year tenure at electric car giant

AP REPORTERS

TESLA chief financial officer Zachary Kirkhorn has announced that he will be departing the company after 13 years with the electric vehicle and solar panel maker.

Kirkhorn, given the Game of Thrones-style title ‘master of coin’ by the company, stepped down on Friday but will remain with Tesla

through the end of the year to “support a seamless transition,” according to the Austin, Texas, company. Shares of Tesla slipped more than two per cent at the opening bell amid

a broader sell-off in the electric vehicle sector.

Vaibhav Taneja was named CFO in addition to his current role as chief accounting officer, the company said in a regulatory filing. The filing gave no reason for the departure, but said Tesla has experienced tremendous growth during Kirkhorn’s tenure.

POUNDLAND: The Pepco-owned discounter is plotting a significant expansion in the second half of the year as Brits watch the pennies

RYANAIR: The low-cost carrier continues to outperform its peers, registering a record second quarter ahead of a bumper summer

The firm said it now expects to enter commercial production by the “end of this calendar year”.

Nanoco expects unaudited revenues of £5.6m when it releases final full year results in October, more than double than last year. It comes after the tech firm reached a $150m (£117.5m) settlement with Samsung in February, after Nanoco accused the Korean tech giant of using its quantum dot technology in its products without permission.

Nanoco non-executive chairman Dr Christopher Richards said: “The litigation proceeds allow us to drive the organic business forward while underpinning our firm commitment to return up to £40m of cash to shareholders in early 2024.”

OZZY OZZY OZZY Prince of Darkness falls foul of ad watchdog over Playstation tweet

A TWEET by Ozzy Osbourne in February showing him gaming on a Sony Playstation VR2 has been banned for failing to mention that it was an ad, the Advertising Standards Authority announced yesterday.

The pawnbroker has seen demand grow off the back of the cost of living crisis

Tesla ‘master of coin’ Zachary Kirkhorn PA

FORGETthe brouhaha over banking profits going up amid interest rate hikes. It’s a temporary phenomenon. At a more fundamental level, many western banks are less profitable than they used to be, trading at lower or barely more than their book value.

One key source of inefficiency is the trend for process-driven management, which has grown since the financial crisis of 2007-8, particularly in response to the swathes of regulation that were introduced after that time.

This has left banks with an unwieldy bureaucracy, reducing the ability for senior managers to exercise judgement and squeezing out vital time for thinking. Ironically, that has given shadow banking –relatively unregulated –a competitive advantage.

The current fashion is nevertheless to introduce more processes, on the theory that the greater their use, the greater the cost savings and the greater the benefit.

The problem is caused by the way in which many of the processes have been constructed. They are designed to tackle regulatory requirements for areas such as conduct and money laundering, and instruct at a high level how banks must control risk-taking by individuals and groups, and ensure core governance matters are properly addressed.

Vast inventories of applicable provisions have been created by compliance departments and consultancies, often with a process for every provision.

What results is unnecessarily bureaucratic and at odds with the needs of businesses as sophisticated and variable as banking. It limits choices for business managers, diverts energies, and creates new risk when unexamined assumptions are made over what is or is not required.

The problem is exacerbated when the regulators ask questions on the same subject areas, leading to duplication and invariably more process.

Banks have underestimated the importance of legal judgement.

The need for such judgement arises at the design stage of new processes. Only at that point can lawyers with relevant practical expertise and experience delve into the detail and identify where problems and flexibilities lie, and what further facts they need.

LET LAWYERS BE LAWYERS

As things stand, those steeped in the facts try to commission advice on what they believe might be legal questions, which means the input of lawyers is artificially constrained.

Lawyers can merely be asked for broad summaries of provisions as part of the exercise of producing inventories, which is a method rarely capable of being helpful since the

PROFIT NOT PROCESS

to open things up. Some aspects of the role of legal involve transaction execution, advocacy (i.e. putting the best case, when robust) and disputes. Legal is nonetheless best considered as performing a control function, reflecting the overriding importance of its role as a “protector” of the bank.

To fulfil this role, in-house lawyers must proactively engage with the business to understand fully the business activity, to assess the risk emanating from it, and to assist senior management in determining which risks to take and how best to manage them.

WISE COUNSEL MUST BE ELEVATED TO THE TOP

From a governance perspective, the general counsel should report directly to the chief executive; direct access to the board is critical. The UK financial regulators’ decision not to treat the general counsel as a “senior manager” has had adverse ramifications, at least symbolically. They should also be central to communications with regulators and the market, shaping the reasoning that buttresses the bank’s position in

lawyers are not being enlisted to think about how the law is to be applied to facts, the core characteristic of legal

Sometimes their contributions are procured in a way that means they can be too quick or even

erroneous in their answers.

Properly defined processes allow senior management to spend more time on the judgement calls which define the success of businesses.

Adjustments to the way in which legal departments operate may be necessary

such interactions.

The in-house lawyers need to evaluate what they can best do, allowing time for thinking and making efficient use of outside counsel for additional analysis and skills, especially for sporadic tasks. They can use processes to produce first drafts of standard agreements, for aspects of document management and for investigations, through the use of automated production systems, artificial intelligence, and cheaper, outsourced lawyers in offshore locations.

Properly used, lawyers can provide the solution to many of the issues facing the banks, freeing up time for judgement, unlocking value, saving cost and helping to enhance risk management. Lawyers are an essential ingredient to operating the modern bank in an efficient, more profitable manner.

Two leading City lawyers, Barney Reynolds and Simon Dodds, argue our banks have become too bureaucratic –and it’s stopping them serving the real economy

Vast inventories of rules have been created by compliance departments and consultancies

£ Barnabas Reynolds (left) is a Partner and Simon Dodds (right) is Of Counsel at Shearman & Sterling LLP

EAR TO THE GROUND

IN 2018, Spotify chief executive Daniel Ek announced the company would invest $500m in growing a podcast business. But that spend ballooned to more than $1bn over the next four years as the company licensed shows, bought numerous production studios and signed exclusive podcast deals with the likes of the Obamas and the Sussexes.

Ek admitted in January that he was “too ambitious” with spending after Spotify posted a net loss of €430m (£367m) for 2022.

However, Spotify has continued haemorrhaging cash, reporting a record €302m (£260.2m) loss in their second quarter for this year, even as it scaled back on its heavy investment into podcasts.

Investors have raised concerns over Spotify’s podcast business, with activist investor Valueact blaming podcasts for the explosion in the firm’s costs.

According to a recent report by media research firm Enders Analysis, Spotify’s big bet on podcasts “has spectacularly

failed to deliver the anticipated financial rewards to shareholders”.

Alice Enders, director of research at Enders, explained to City A.M. that “in essence, the costs of the exclusive podcasts far exceeded the revenue opportunity”.

To try to rectify the situation, Spotify has axed 10 original shows since last year and announced it was restructuring its podcasting division in January. It said it would cut 600 jobs, with 200 staff laid off in June.

Spotify “mutually agreed” to cancel the $20m (£15.7m) exclusive deal for Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s podcast ‘Archetypes’ in June after just one season.

Spotify also parted ways with the Obamas in April, but clung on to ‘The Joe Rogan Experience’ podcast, which rakes in some 11m listeners per episode and ranks top of all Spotify podcasts in the US and UK.

But reports have suggested that the $200m deal with Joe Rogan could come to an end in 2024 – something that Spotify has denied.

Through the restructuring, Spotify is aiming to ensure sustainable growth for their podcast segment beyond shortterm exclusivity deals.

Chris Baughen, head of studios at Spotify UK & Ireland, told City A.M. that “the true power and value of highly engaged podcast listeners has yet to be fully realised.”

Spotify is trying to position podcast advertising as a “firm fixture” in companies’ marketing plans, he said.

But Baughen said the lack of consistent and reliable data has been a roadblock in building confidence in podcast advertising.

“There are challenges due to different platforms measuring listens in various ways and providing different data on consumption,” he explained. The facts show, however, that marketers are unafraid to spend their advertising dough on a well-placed ad. In 2022, UK podcast investment was up 32 per cent year on year, beating the overall UK digital ad industry’s growth of 11 per cent, according to the latest annual IAB Digital Ad Spend report.

WHAT YOU’RE LISTENING TO

THE JOE ROGAN EXPERIENCE

Exclusive to Spotify, the controversial host dishes on all

THE REST IS...

Producer Goalhanger is looking to replicate their history pod with a new football show

DIARY OF A CEO

Stephen Bartlett’s partbiz, part advice podcast has become a huge hit amongst young and old

THE LOUIS THEROUX PODCAST

The “legendary” host’s show is another Spotify exclusive

Podcasts remained one of the most resilient ad categories last year, although ad spending on podcasts was 29 per cent lower last year than 2021 as uncertainty over the global economy saw firms pare back their marketing budgets. The US is expected to spend $2.2bn (£1.7bn) on podcast ads in 2023, according to Statista.

SUCCESS STORIES

Others, however, are managing to make a success out of podcasting.

Fellow Swedish podcast platform Acast saw net sales for the second quarter of this year jump 22 per cent, compared to the same quarter of the previous year, to SEK386.3m (£28.4m).

“We’ve already shown that we can make markets profitable even in an economic downturn. So we’re very confident that this is still a burgeoning industry and will continue to aim towards profits as a group in 2024,” Ross Adams, Acast’s chief executive, told City A.M.

Acast does not have exclusive podcasts, rather they own exclusive rights to commercialise content, only sharing the revenue with the content creator.

Adams, who has led the company since 2017, said this approach opens up more significant commercial opportunities compared to exclusive platform deals.

“Sending content exclusively to one platform might pay well in the short term, but building a sustainable audience and business in podcasting requires a broader approach,” he explained.

“Podcasting is one of the best [return on investment] mediums for advertisers,” he added.

And the podcasting market is still evolving, with studios experimenting with different ways of growing their audiences and generating revenue.

The Fellas Studios, for instance, focuses on video podcasts, which has allowed them to build massive followings across platforms like Youtube and Tiktok.

The studios, co-founded by Youtube influencers Callum Airey and Joshua Larkin, specialises in video podcasts that appeal to a Gen Z audience, such as ‘Pitch Side’ and ‘Saving Grace’.

“Video podcasts, for us, are long-form video discussions with high production values that complement the audio content,” explained Elliot Hackney, Fellas Studios chief operating officer.

They aim to tackle the falling podcast engagement among Gen Zers by adding visual elements and interactive segments or games that would be less effective for an audio-only episode.

“This helps us monetise not just on audio platforms but also on Youtube, Snapchat, Facebook, and through brand deals and merchandise,” Hackney said.

They anticipate podcasters will explore exclusive content and paid platforms like Patreon to engage their dedicated audiences, relying less on external platforms like Spotify.

“The focus will shift to engaging and activating their dedicated audiences, and platforms like Spotify may continue to play a role, but self-sufficiency will be a key trend,” added Hackney.

Spotify is already latching on to the video podcasting trend to compete, and says it is seeing success from live shows.

But it still has a long way to go before it starts making money out of podcasting.

Spotify bet big on exclusive podcasts with Joe Rogan and Meghan and Harry. Jess Jones explains why not everything has gone to plan

A GALLERY OF ONE’S OWN

IT IS an unusual thing to do these days, announce a child’s birth in the newspaper. Nonetheless, Isabella Rothman and Sophie Merrell, born one day apart, shared a spot in the same column of the same newspaper, after both of their grandparents sent in submissions to let the world know they had arrived. For the next two decades, the two, now 28, would live almost parallel lives; Merrell working for a contemporary Japanese art gallery in London in her twenties, and Rothman at her mother’s gallery in Westbourne Park.

It wasn’t until Rothman and her twin brother, Angus, put on an exhibition in London, that their paths crossed, eventually leading to the creation of their own gallery, Wondering People, which aims, in the terminology favoured by tech companies, to “democratise” the art world.

“We did (the exhibition) with the three of us, and it was a really pivotal moment for us, knowing that we shared the same passion.”

The two remained friends from that point, during which Merrell moved to Amsterdam to work for a non-profit gallery.

Her experience, shockingly familiar in an industry often built on young, badly paid hopeful artists or collectors, was one of sexism, racism and insane expectations of loyalty.

She worked in what she calls an “incredible space” with a photographer who “was probably the worst person I’ve ever worked for.”

“He was sexist, he was racist, he would shout the whole time, when I told him I was leaving him, it was like I was divorcing him.”

Even her descriptions - leaving himare more like that of a romantic relationship than an employer.

She eventually left after a job in Milan with him, where, for three weeks, he had booked just one hotel room for the two of them.

Looking back now, Merrell puts it down to stinginess rather than anything more untoward, but it was the moment she resolved to quit.

Only then did they two consider doing something together.

“I think it was from knowing lots of artist friends, who had just left art school, or were at art school and wanting to sell their works and had nowhere to go,” says Rothman.

One of the first people on their books, Ed Burkes, was from another Amsterdam connection. Burkes has gone on to win the Jonathan Vickers Fine Art Award, one of the largest prizes for emerging artists, and still works with Wondering People.

As with any other new firm trying out “democratisation”, it normally means they want to lower the barrier for entry, whether that be through digital innovation, or simply making it cheaper.

Wondering People does a bit of both: they source many of their artists from Instagram, getting submissions from across the world, but they also under-

cut the commission charged by traditional galleries - normally in the ballpark of 55 to 60 per cent.

Initially, Wondering People charged only 35 per cent, before nudging it up to 40 per cent for online sales and 45 per cent for exhibitions. There is such widespread acceptance at how high the bar is, that they didn’t have to dramatically slash the price.

But even with these lofty ideals, both Rothman and Merrell remain products

of a cosy industry.

When talking about how they found Burkes, it’s all about friends-of-friends.

“A friend of ours, we met in Amsterdam, and she was working at Calvin Klein and her boyfriend, Max Radford, who now runs the Radford Gallery, who we did our last exhibition with, and his friend from university, from art school, was Ed Burkes.”

Merrell’s mother owns the Wilson, Stephens and Jones Gallery in Notting Hill, and Rothman spent her weekends at antiques fairs with her grandmother, who had a house laden with gigantic tapestries from Jordan.

But both spoke approvingly of Guts Gallery in Hackney, which aims to bring artists from underrepresented backgrounds into the limelight.

“(Guts) set out to challenge the exclusivity of the art world, and that’s what we do as well.”

While neither Rothman and Merrell studied art formally, and actively encouraged artists who haven’t trained through art schools, the question of privilege is an enduring one the creative sector is struggling to address.

Simply the good fortune of growing

up around people who have an appreciation for the creative industries makes the pathway into the art world easier.

Rothman or Merrell don’t expect to challenge the top tier galleries, who regularly sell works for millions of pounds. The art fairs, which are a staple part of the calendar, often have a space for new and emerging galleries, but hidden - like a shameful secret.

“We went last time (to the London Art Fair) and there was just no one there, it felt dead because it’s in the back end.”

Merrell has been going every year with her mum’s gallery and it’s barely changed.

“It’s still the same kind of stuffy old gallerists, the old men, white men, who are wearing red trousers.”

Neither Merrell or Rothman look like they would be caught dead in a place frequented by men in all shades of salmon-coloured chinos and indeed, with Merrell, who ordinarily is based in Paris, off to Glastonbury at the time we spoke, and Isabella living ensconced in the Sussex countryside, it doesn’t look like that will change.

Sexism, racism, and privilege: the inevitable hurdles to challenging the art world, Sascha O’Sullivan writes.

The good fortune of growing up around people who appreciate art makes the pathway into the industry easier

Isabella Rothman and Sophie Merrell, founders of Wondering People (above) and Ed Burkes, one of their first artists (below) .

CITY DASHBOARD

YOUR ONE-STOP SHOP FOR BROKER VIEWS AND MARKET REPORTS

LONDON REPORT BEST OF THE BROKERS

London bluechip index falters after weak trade data from China

LONDON’s premier FTSE 100 index closed lower yesterday after data from China showed that its attempts to recover from the pandemic have continued to stall.

The bluechip FTSE 100 index closed 0.4 per cent lower at 7,527.42 while the FTSE 250 slipped 0.1 per cent to end at 18,843.79.

The falls came after new figures out yesterday showed that exports contracted 14.5 per cent in July while imports dropped 12.4 per cent. The fall in exports was the fastest since the start of the pandemic in early 2020.

The figures indicate that domestic demand is not as high as authorities would like it to be as the world’s second largest economy struggles to recover from the Covid lockdowns.

AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould said “ex-

pecting a big wave of ‘revenge spending’ was always likely to be a forlorn hope” in the country.

Miners including Anglo American, Antofagasta and Rio Tinto were all trading lower as China is a major importer of commodities Fellow miner Glencore was also trading down after it saw a steep fall in profits on the back of falling commodity prices. Its shares were down 2.8 per cent.

The FTSE 100 company posted a more than 50 per cent decline in earnings year-on-year, which plummeted from $18.9bn to $9.4bn, with revenues steeply falling 20 per cent from $134.4bn to $107.4bn.

Also falling was fund manager Abrdn, which slumped 9.2 per cent to hit the bottom of the FTSE 100 after posting a drop in value of assets under management.

Superdry has struggled amid the squeeze in consumer spending over the last year, cutting its full year profit forecast in January. However, despite an anticipated loss of £16m in its full year results, analysts said the group’s cost saving programme would likely “underpin a return to profitability”. Peel Hunt maintained its buy rating and 200p target price.

REVERBATIONS FROM CHINA HIT FTSE 100

Virgin Money’s margins last week remained stable, with Richard Branson’s bank stating that it expects to deliver a £175m share buyback at its end of year results. Peel Hunt analysts said “operating trends were broadly consistent with existing guidance.” They retained their buy rating but reduced the target price from 246p to 243p.

The Chinese economy continues to splutter and that’s bad news for a FTSE 100 chock full of companies which are closely tied to its fortunes.

RUSS MOULD, AJ BELL

OPINION

EDITED BY SASCHA O’SULLIVAN

Britons define ourselves by our work, maybe we should ‘just beach’ like Ken

Josh Williams

IWENT to the cinema this week to watch the struggle of a man who finds himself wielding unbearable power. I also saw an actor give the standout performance of his career. But I am not talking about Cillian Murphy’s turn as Robert Oppenheimer. Instead, this tragic hero was Ryan Gosling’s Ken.

While Barbie might have the titular role, Ken is the star. He is not only given most of the laugh lines. He also has the more engaging character arc. Ken’s intellectual and emotional journey is so good it is Hegelian.

First, we have his Thesis – his starting position. Ken enters the story as a nonentity. He exists only and entirely for Barbie’s gaze. In Barbieland, every position in society is held by a woman, from President to construction worker. Ken, and every other man (called, almost exclusively, “Ken”), do nothing. Or, to be more precise, they do nothing but “beach” – which is to say, they stand on the beach with their washboard abs out. “Beach” also happens to be the most inspired new verb of 2023. From here, we move to the Antithesis – the direct opposite of the starting position. Having travelled from Barbieland to the real world to fix a tear in the space-time continuum (Christopher Nolan, eat your heart out), Ken

encounters the patriarchy: a place where men (mostly) do all the important jobs and (mostly) rule. First, Ken tries to find employment within the real world. Unfortunately, his skills –limited entirely to “beach” – aren’t enough to find him work, even within the patriarchy. However, inspired by mankind’s example, he deserts Barbie and returns to Barbieland, staging a takeover. In his new creation, Kendom, he and the other Kens rule supreme. This is no Hollywood ending and so, needless to say, it does not last. In the final act, Barbie returns and unseats Ken, restoring Barbieland. Here, we reach the most important stage of

Ken’s arc. Thesis and Antithesis have met and, as Hegelians say they must, they combine to create a new and bet-

Who

ter proposition: Synthesis.

First, Ken learned that he could live entirely in Barbie’s shadow. His attempt to find work within the realworld exposed his inadequacies (lifeguards, it transpires, do more than “beach”). Like Oppenheimer, he could not easily bear the awesome power that he had assumed. The final chapter of Ken’s story – his Synthesis – is to accept himself for who he is. Ken discovers that being himself is “kenough”. He does not have to exist in Barbie’s shadow. Nor does he have to find a job that defines him.

I have heard complaints at how Ken’s story ends. An esteemed fellow

Edinburgh Fringe fame for a one woman show is proof of the randomness of celebrity

THE Edinburgh Festival is in full swing and the number of performers is almost incredible: the overall total this year is estimated to be around 50,000.

A small fraction are already established names; an even smaller fraction may become famous as the festival unfolds. But most will return home just as unknown as when they arrived.

There was an outpouring of support - and subsequent publicity - for performer Georgie Grier after she tweeted that only one person had turned up to watch her show. She now seems to have become something of a celebrity and wound up performing to a packed house.

This is very much the exception rather than the rule. Those responding to the tweet had not seen Georgie’s show; they would have been completely unaware of its inherent quality. So following basic rational choice theory, in which people evalu-

Paul Ormerod

ate the attributes of a product or serv-

ice and see how it matches their own preferences before forming a view, endorsing the show makes little sense.

This small vignette tells us a great deal about the artistic sector as a whole. The arts are inherently massively inegalitarian. A select few do extremely well and most do badly, very badly indeed.

The work of Duncan Watts helps us understand why this is the case. Watts, who was originally at Columbia University, went on to be paid huge salaries by Yahoo and Microsoft and is now ensconced back in academia.

Twenty years ago he published a

paper in the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences with the title “A simple model of global cascades on random networks”. Watts set up a computer model in which the agents could make one of two choices. For example, you could either go or not go to a particular show at the Edinburgh Festival. Your decision to go wouldn’t be based in any way on the quality of the show; it would be determined by the proportion of people who have seen the show and could influence your choice. Given Grier’s experience, this seems a perfectly reasonable assumption to make.

Watt’s model started with no one having been to the show. Then a few are selected at random to go. Watts then measured, across a large number of individual solutions of his model, how many eventually went. In any context in which the opinions of others have a strong impact on the choices a person makes, the eventual outcome will be very unequal.

The results were intriguing. Most of the time, very few people would go. But very occasionally, huge numbers do. This is exactly like the real life outcomes in the arts.

Watts then followed it up a few years later with some experiments. He got a group of students to listen, one at a time, to 48 music tracks and to rate them and select the ones they really liked. In one set, they just listened to bits of the music. Overall, some were more popular than others, but none stood out dramatically. In another set, students were told what others had selected before them. In this case, a few were hugely popular and most were not. The choices of others had a dramatic impact on the outcome.

This inequality is a deep seated feature of any part of the economy in which the choice which you make is significantly affected bywhat others do - especially the arts.

columnist in this very newspaper concluded yesterday that “Ken just needs a real job”. While this is an understandable argument to grace the pages of London’s finest business newspaper, it is tragically misguided. Not every job need fill us with a profound sense of purpose. No society can function in a world in which everyone feels they are defined by their job. Who would choose to be defined by being a chartered accountant, for instance? These jobs are necessary. We need them filled. But we can’t possibly hope that every chartered accountant believes that is who they are, rather than simply what they do at work.

It is an unusual phenomenon in Britain, and America too, that we define ourselves by our jobs. Ask a Brit “what do you do?”, and they will invariably tell you what their job is. Ask a Swede, on the other hand, and they will probably tell you what they are doing in that very moment. If you don’t believe me, watch Sandi Toksvig dial-a-Swede on QI a few years ago (one of the stranger attempts by Sweden to tempt tourists to their cold, dark country) and discover the same herself.

It is perhaps worth noting that Sweden tops the EU’s gender equality index. Barbie has been hailed, rightly, as a feminist film – showing that women should not be defined by society. But Ken’s story takes us further than that – it shows us that men need not be defined by tradition either. To be ourselves is, in other words, kenough.

£ Josh William is Deputy Director of Labour Together and a columnist at City A.M.

TAX AND RUN

Italy’s far right prime minister Giorgia Meloni has wiped almost £9bn off of the value of Italian banks after launching a surprise raid on their finances with a socalled ‘windfall tax’. The country’s financial institutions face a 40 per cent levy in an effort to help first time buyers.

Paul Ormerod is an author and economist at Volterra Partners LLP

£

Ken, the tragic hero in the Barbie movie, learns to live in Barbie’s shadow

would choose to be defined by being a chartered accountant? Ken would never.

WE WANT TO

HEAR YOUR

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Loneliness without the pubs

With soaring costs leading the number of pub closures in the UK to reach its highest quarterly figure in over a decade, it’s a very challenging time for the hospitality industry – especially for those working in it. The industry has already been through some of the toughest times with the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent economic and staffing difficulties that followed. Hospitality is all about the people so for staff that are surrounded by that

atmosphere, these closures could trigger loneliness, as well as increased stress around financial pressures in their personal lives. While there is an increased understanding that a healthy, happy workforce is more productive, more profitable, delivers better customer service (a hospitality businesses core product), the truth is that most are just trying to stay afloat through these tough times and don’t have the finances or capacity to invest in their teams, demonstrated by these recent pub closures surging.

The hospitality industry - pubs and beyond - needs to have preventative resources in place to ensure that in the case of redundancies and closures, staff feel better supported.

Tim Etherington-Judge Healthy Hospo

Simon Neville

PRODUCTIVITY is one of those topics that seems to weave its way through the entire business ecosystem. Each day we hear ministers tell us about economic growth and how we can stimulate the economy through investment, creating jobs and driving productivity.

But one aspect for a strong workforce the government could do more on, is highlight some of the schemes already available to make the workplace better for those who might be struggling.

During the Industrial Revolution, poor working conditions led to the introduction of health and safety measures - designed to stop manual workers from being killed.

The premise of these laws remains to this day and few are arguing they are a burden on businesses.

They were also seen as a route to ensuring staff were better rested and more productive.

But today, most jobs are in the services sector - meaning hours of sitting behind a desk, keeping on top of emails and using our brains like never before.

A few businesses are trialling Four Day weeks and early reports suggest they are generally successful at improving productivity.

Mental health awareness has also improved, although support to services for employees can remain patchy, and companies seem genuinely interested in “doing the right thing”.

EXPLAINER-IN-BRIEF: SNAPCHAT UNDER FIRE FOR ITS UNDER-AGE USERS

Snapchat looks to be the latest casualty of scrupulous regulators in the UK. The Information Commissioner’s Officer, the data regulator, is worried that thousands of kids under 13 are using the app. Indeed Snapchat is considered the preferred app for underage users.

Back in March, it was reported that Snapchat had removed only a small number of underage accounts in the UK - around 700 suspected underage accounts were taken offline in the UK between April 2021 and April

2022. By contrast, TikTok removed 180,000 accounts during the same period.

If the data regulator is not satisfied with the information it finds, it will likely launch an investigation into the app. When an investigation finds evidence of wrongdoing, the company usually gets a fine. Snapchat does have some measures in place to protect users who are under 18, but has been repeatedly criticised for not doing enough to keep those under 13 away.

But part of the problem that remains is how companies cannot see the financial benefits of having a mentally robust workforce.

Few have made the economic case for managing mental health as a route to increasing productivity or growth.

Too often, politicians will fret endless about productivity and hope for some miracle cure to come along. But very few are shouting from the rooftops at some of the things that actually are working.

One of the best-kept secret is the Access To Work scheme. It’s one of those things often stuck at the bottom of a job ad, where the company in question promises not to discriminate based on background or any other characteristics. It usually ends up sounding both trite and somehow not quite real. But it can have a massive impact at a rela-

Jeremy Hunt has repeatedly warned about Britain’s sluggish productivity

tively small cost.

For example, I was diagnosed with ADHD in March 2020. Emerging through the thicket of a diagnosis and starting life-changing medication, I’ve spent much of the past three years trying to figure out how to ensure I can do my job to the best of my abilities.

The scheme allowed me to identify what “reasonable adjustments” I could use that would improve my productivity and make me a better employee.

As a result, I now have a new tablet to keep all my handwritten notes - instead of the vast array of notebooks that inevitably get lost.

I also get access to weekly workplace coaching, read and write software, organisational programmes, training and an allowance to hire an assistant to help me with being organised (I’m still too disorganised to actually hire someone just yet).

Lastly, there was the offer of workplace awareness training.

The premise of the scheme is that the government provides funding to implement workplace adjustments, and thereby ensures people remain in employment, paying their taxes and avoiding the risk of being a greater burden by being unable to work.

But the question is - why can no one in government see that to have a thriving workforce and a growing economy, you have to make sure employees are supported properly?

If more employees were given support - like with Access To Work - then they will be able to be the best versions of themselves; more work will get done and bigger profits generated.

But until wellness is taken out of the bucket of “nice but not essential” to a business’s core strategy for generating greater profits, very little will change and the question of “why can’t the UK improve productivity?” will remain.

£ Simon Neville is Media Strategy and Content Director at SEC Newgate, he was formerly City Editor at Press Association

A top Berlin business group has warned that Beijing is still ahead of the famous German carmakers in making affordable electric vehicles. Monika Schnitzer, of Germany’s Council of Economic Experts, said they need to ‘get their act together’ to have a hope at winning the green race.

Certified Distribution from 03/04/2023 till 30/04/2023 is 67,569

WINE-DOWN WEDNESDAY

Each summer certain places draw epicureans and hedonists like a magnet. Crystalline waters, blue skies and beaming sunshine are all very well but as the beautiful people recline upon their beach beds, dance under the stars and dine under glorious sunsets, what I want to know is: what are they drinking?

St Tropez held a bohemian allure in the 1950s when renowned Parisian writers, painters and actors made the French Riviera their summer escape. By the 1960s the “jet set” were flying in for the beaches and bars and now the port gleams white with the super yachts of the ultra-wealthy.

An ideal spot to watch these ships come in is the Hotel Bar Sube, where people jostle for the balcony views and where I sipped the Provence rosé

Chateau Minuty with owner Francois Matton. The heat was stifling but, knowing how many winemakers feel about ice diluting their wines, I was surprised to see Matton scooping cubes into his pale pink wine.

“Of course!” Matton scoffed, embodying the relaxed indulgence of the town, “it’s an easy wine, a pleasure wine. If it gets warm it ceases to be a pleasure and you feel the alcohol”. With the vineyards of Provence just inland, a light, fruity, visually pleasing rosé is clearly the winner for the glamourous St Tropez set.

The volcanic Greek island of Santorini is famed for its white-washed buildings clinging to rocks above the deep blue sea, its striking black sand beaches and its phenomenal sunsets. A place of mythology and beauty, it’s also one of the oldest wine regions in the

Wine without the snobbery, by

Libby Brodie

DRINK WINE LIKE A TRUE IBIZA HEDONIST

world. Vines here date back hundreds, if not thousands of years, creating magical wines of depth and flavour.

Gaia Wines, set against the lapping waves of the Aegean Sea, may have ancient vines but their techniques are modern and youthful, led by Lito Paraskevopoulos, the winemaker daughter of the founder Giannis. The Assyrtiko grape is Queen here. Whether as a trendy orange wine (experimentally aged under the sea) or as Gaia’s delicious, complex Wild Ferment, these wines’ thrilling vibrancy personify the island itself.

Perhaps nowhere embodies hedonism like the Spanish island of Ibiza, where generations of ravers have danced beyond dawn at super clubs that started to emerge in the 1970s. Notoriously riotous in the drug-fuelled haze of the 1980s and 90s, where water was the drink of choice for the pillhappy punter, there is another thriving side to Ibiza.

Stylishly boho beach clubs, graceful hippies at yoga retreats and gleeful foodies like myself, all indulging in outstandingly fresh, delectable cuisine –which, of course, needs excellent wine. Just a handful of tiny wineries grace the island but, though small, they are perfectly formed. Illegal raves used to be signposted by coloured rocks and, in a nod to this, follow the pink rocks to find Ojo de Ibiza in the cool, green hills to the North. It’s a peacefully rustic outpost creating organic, low intervention wines that seek to embrace nature. Founded by Dieter Meier, the lyricist for the theme song for Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, there’s enough of a link to the island’s love of music to make you say, “Oh Yeah!”.

WINE RECOMMENDATIONS

CANDOVER BROOK BRUT £37

CANDOVERBROOK.CO.UK

Bursting onto the English wine scene with a gold medal from the International Wine Challenge and Best Newcomer at the Wine GB Awards, Candover Brook is one to watch. This sparkling Brut is beautifully balanced with a delicate fruity, floral finesse.

ISOLE E OLENA

CEPPARELLO 2020

£80 BERRY BROS & RUDD

An exemplary Super Tuscan that transports you to the hot rolling hills of Tuscany with its rich notes of blood orange, dark plums, ripe cherries and a lingering sweet spice finish. Smooth and suave, it’s a wine that makes an impression as soon as you open the bottle.

MISCO RISERVA CASTELLI DI JESI VERDICCHIO

RISERVA DOCG CLASSICO

£60 PETERSHAM CELLAR

Slick with stone and ripe lemon peel, this is a grown-up Verdicchio that has been enhanced by careful ageing in an Italian region that has been making these wines since the 14th Century. Beautifully delicate white blossoms and a lick of sweet almond biscotti. Pure enjoyment.

IBIZKUS TOTEM ROSE

£40 WANDERLUST WINE

From the party island of Ibiza this singular rosé is something (wonderfully) different, with its struckmatch, savoury quality and sophisticated structure. Tasted blind you could easily mistake it for a white, but the fine red fruits and herbs are there. A beautiful wine to pair with food.

CHAMPAGNE CASTELNAU BRUT

£33.81

THE WINE SOCIETY

An extremely refined champagne with a joyfully bright effervescence and light biscuit notes. Castelnau manages to offer excellent value for Champagne but without scrimping on quality. This wine feels like a secret shared by those in the know.

AGLASS OF WINE WITH: Founder of the Humble Grape wine bars James Dawson

ARRIVINGin the UK from South Africa with £50 in his pocket, James Dawson spent three nights sleeping rough on a park bench after his planned job in social work was cancelled.

Now he is the founder and owner of Humble Grape with six locations across London and last year purchased the South African restaurant chain, Vivat Bacchus.

HOW DID YOU GET INTO WINE?

When my job as a social worker fell through, I

went into finance as my friend told me you could earn £11 an hour in banking. By my late 20s I was working in Paris on HSBC’s wine trading desk. It was meant to be six weeks, but I stayed for two years and learned about food and wine in France.

Every other weekend I’d rent a car and visit a wine region.

Seven years later I’d done my wine qualifications, read all the books and started hosting tastings and selling wine. If you can sell wine in the UK it will teach you the wine market. I

was delivering wines on my motorbike before work then I started importing and selling wine to restaurants.

HOW

DID HUMBLE GRAPE BEGIN?

In 2014 I had imported some beautiful wines but was struggling to sell them, so I opened my own wine bar. We were the first UK hospitality business to do crowd funding and we raised £500,000. Humble Grape Battersea opened in 2015. I was on the floor with my General Manager and we only served toasties but somehow became the number one London restaurant on Trip Advisor. People

would arrive all dressed up expecting Michelin star food and we were doing toasted sandwiches, so we had to elevate the food offering. In two years, we had three venues and an Executive Chef.

AND VIVAT BACCHUS?

I’m a wine guy, not a restaurant guy but I knew the owner when he wanted to sell. It’s a taste of South Africa. We simplified the food, serving classics: crocodile, ostrich and frikkadel. 85% of our list is iconic, interesting South African wines.

WHAT ARE YOU DRINKING NOW?

Union Sacré Pinot Gris from

California. A white with a bit of pink in it – it tastes like Summertime.

FAVOURITE PLACE FOR WINE?

Humble Grape, Liverpool Street. It’s tiny and quirky with a constantly changing wine curious crowd.

FAVOURITE RESTAURANT?

I’ve always loved Chez Bruce, and I had a phenomenal experience at Flesh & Buns too.

FAVOURITE PLACE FOR A LATE-NIGHT DRINK?

I’m hoping Speedboat because I’m headed there tonight for my 50th birthday party…

DOVETALE: HOW GOOD IS TOM SELLERS’

NEW RESTAURANT AT 1 HOTEL MAYFAIR ?

Tom Sellers’ creative new restaurant Dovetale shows the two-starred chef has more to give, says Adam Bloodworth

There’s no way of writing about Tom Sellers without talking about his bad boy reputation. I ask one staff member if he’s been exhibiting his notoriously acerbic nature –to put it politely – in the kitchen. “He is a chef,” they say. I don’t entirely know what that means, but I do know one thing: he is a chef who, with Dovetale, should be well on his way to a third Michelin star.

Tom Sellers’ new restaurant, Dovetale, is the sort of place that not only reminds you why Sellers has two Michelin stars, at Restaurant Story, but positively slaps you in the chops, again and again, with ingenuity.

It is the flagship restaurant at the new 1 Hotel Mayfair, the first UK outpost of a US hotel brand.

It’s the sort of shiny new Mayfair hotel that is already featuring on the Instagram accounts of actors and models; just this week James Norton raised a glass there to celebrate the end of his show A Little Life, one of the most exciting (and divisive) West

End openings of the year. Dishes are gorgeously crafted, some with the intricate beauty of paintings, like the punchy ratatouille, a signature of Sellers, with its circles of thinly sliced tomatoes that look like cascading pennies crushed together in a beachfront slot machine. Someone, almost certainly not Sellers, spent hours crafting this.

Or the dressed Cornish crab that was served in such a perfect circle against a backdrop of egg cubes that it reminded me of the pleasing moment when you remove masking tape from a painted wall, revealing the crisp line where both colours meet.

Sellers has a god given talent for creating dishes that are partially familiar but then yank you in a surprising direction. Orkney scallops are pepped up with slices of Amalfi lemon, the sharpness brought down a peg by an oil dressing that finds harmony between the fish and citrus. But the chunks of scallop were just a little too thin to properly taste. The dishes kept coming. A carpac-

cio of Wagyu beef was served with beef fat chips to wrap the steak around, which was as fun as it sounds and then a little bit more fun on top. Oh, and the combination tastes heavenly.

Carpaccio of artichoke with black truffle dressing was like the ratatouille, a statement of how inventive methods of preparation can be dreamed up for vegetables, too.

Braised cuttlefish in tomatoes and rosemary had the fresh but comforting zing of a dish homemade by an Italian nonna who has made this same meal every day of her life.

To the mains: Dover sole with cauliflower, grapes and tarragon was an exercise in subtlety and created another colourful wash on a plate that looked so frustratingly perfect it could have sat for its own self portrait. Pink roasted lamb was exquisite, with gentle yogurt and wild capers, and the exciting addition of charred lettuce for an intriguingly smoky edge.

Sellers has fire in his belly yet.

COVERED TERRACES: WAYS TO BEAT THE AUGUST RAIN

August has continued as July left off, with bucketloads of rain, which is absolutely no good for those who fancy a bit of al fresco dining. Forecasts predict the weather to remain “unsettled” for the next couple of weeks so we have rounded up some of the best covered terraces and courtyards in which to enjoy a great meal without having to worry about getting soaked.

SMOKESTAK, SHOREDITCH

SMOKESTAK has a year round heated and covered terrace that’s ideal for whiling away a lazy afternoon eating smoked meat and drinking craft beer. The awning, made of army-green canvas, is designed to protect guests from unpredictable weather but can also be pulled back for sunnier days to allow the light to flood through. Guests can expect signature smoked meats and a barbecue-led menu of much-loved favourites.

£ smokestak.co.uk

LUCA, ISLINGTON

Luca opened in Clerkenwell in November 2016 and has been a staple ever since. The kitchen is headed up by Robert Chambers (previously of The Square, Locanda Locatelli, the Ledbury), who brings to Luca his interpretation of modern Italian cuisine, celebrating the best of seasonal British produce. Guests can enjoy plates including Luca’s renowned parmesan fries, monkfish crudo and rigatoni

with pork sausage ragù whilst sipping a Bergamericano Spritz on the secluded, foliage-filled terrace, surrounded by olive trees and jasmine.

£ luca.restaurant

ACME FIRE CULT, DALSTON

In the heart of Dalston, Acme Fire Cult’s patio is the ultimate spot for al

fresco feasting. A collaboration with Steve Ryan of 40FT Brewery, Acme Fire Cult offers a new approach to live fire cooking, where vegetables take centre stage, and where food and drink are intrinsically linked. The terrace is fully weatherproofed, with wrap-around cover that can be sealed if the British summer is not playing ball. To be enjoyed alongside the food, 40FT has 10

taps pouring fresh, contemporary beers produced on site, including Dalston Sunrise and Deep Irish Stout.

£ acmefirecult.com

LA GOCCIA, COVENT GARDEN

Situated in the heart of Covent Garden, Italian restaurant La Goccia from the Petersham Nurseries team allows guests to dine al fresco in the tranquil central courtyard, under a canopy to protect from the rain. Lit up in the evening by festoon bulbs and candlelight, the hidden oasis transports guests to a typical Italian piazza where they can enjoy seasonal plates of cicchetti and sip on limoncello spritz and campari soda.

£ petershamnurseries.com

THE BEAUMONT, MAYFAIR

The Beaumont’s chic, sheltered al fresco terrace overlooks Mayfair’s Brown Hart Gardens. With 1920s-style rattan armchairs, blankets, heaters and café tables enfolded by lush greenery, the terrace serves drinks alongside a terrace menu, comprising transatlantic-inspired dishes from Head Chef Ben Boeynaems. Cigars from The Beaumont’s Humidor can also be enjoyed on the terrace.

£ thebeaumont.com

KOYA, BLOOMBERG ARCADE

Koya City’s 50-seater covered terrace is situated in the Bloomberg Arcade, making it a great option for noodle-

lovers whether or not the weather improves. This much-loved Japanese udon noodle hotspot serves up an array of hot and cold dishes to suit all types of weather. Be sure to check the blackboard specials, too.

£ koya.co.uk

THE DIM SUM TERRACE AT HARRODS, KNIGHTSBRIDGE

The Dim Sum terrace is an all-day dining restaurant serving a menu that “celebrates the versatility and conviviality of dim sum”. One of only two Harrods terraces open to the public, the space is divided into a conservatorystyle dining room and a terrace that can be fully covered with retractable awnings for rainier summer days. With views over the rooftops of west London and its Victorian townhouses, the intimate terrace is a welcome refuge from the bustling streets below.

£ harrods.com

DININGS SW3 , CHELSEA

Located in a mews off Walton Street close to both Chelsea and Knightsbridge, Dinings SW3 features a secluded outdoor courtyard seating 20. It’s the perfect place to enjoy the Izakaya-style cooking that combines authentic Japanese influences with European cuisines. Executive chef Masaki Sugisaki has developed a style of seasonal sushi and sashimi using fresh seafood from Cornish day boats.

£ diningssw3.co.uk

The covered terrace at Dalston spot Acme Fire Cult

FOOTBALL COMMENT

Trevor Steven

SAUDI Arabia’s spending spree to attract a host of big name players to its domestic league has grabbed the headlines this summer, and it’s certainly something I wouldn’t have foreseen happening 12 months ago.

But I’m excited about the imminent return of the Premier League, which gets underway on Friday. With Declan Rice at Arsenal, Mason Mount at Manchester United, Alexis Mac Allister at Liverpool and Sandro Tonali at Newcastle United, there has been some really interesting movement at the big clubs. The competition remains unpredictable in many ways.

I’m just hoping it’s a close fight, but I believe we will get that.

TITLE RACE

Treble winners City are of course the favourites. They have the winning gene, epitomised by players like Kevin De Bruyne. To have that expectation of success and trophies among so many individuals is almost a head start.

I was surprised that Ilkay Gundogan was allowed to leave, given how brilliant he was at the end of last season. But I think it shows that Pep Guardiola is treating this as a new beginning. If you keep exactly the same team that won it all last year there is bound to be drop-off. I can’t imagine the playing style will change much, but City may need time to find a new identity.

Arsenal finished the season on a downer of sorts but there were so many positives about their progress under Mikel Arteta, and in adding more first-team players in Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber he has addressed some of their shortcomings. Havertz didn’t fit in at Chelsea but is a starter for Germany and already looks a different character at Arsenal. No one knows what Rice’s ceiling is yet but in Arteta he has a coach who can help him get there. It’s been a positive summer at the club, they look strong, and they are my second favourites.

United won the Carabao Cup last term but showed their soft underbelly in the Europa League, where they were made to look average by Sevilla. In fair-

PREMIER LEAGUE PREVIEW

brings energy and can lead the press. In Andre Onana they have signed a goalkeeper who can change the way they play. Questions remain at centreforward, however. Rasmus Hojlund is young, direct and has an eye for goal but that’s all you can say at this stage. The £64m fee will bring pressure, as will inevitable comparisons with Erling Haaland. Ten Hag believes he will

last year. But they may be missing a signing that takes them from a team that wants to compete to one that will.

TOP FOUR

Liverpool had a poor 2022-23 but improved towards the end and, with a squad that has been refreshed over the summer, can be so much better. I’m looking for more impact from Darwin

They should have a stronger squad than either Chelsea or Tottenham. I’d put those two in a similar bracket. Both have new managers and all sorts of question marks hanging over them.

New Chelsea manager Mauricio Pochettino knows English football from his time at Spurs and Southampton and has a collection of good players but that offers no guarantees and

he still has to get the balance of the team right. If Pochettino builds his Chelsea quickly enough they could creep into the top four.

Tottenham’s summer has once again been dominated by Harry Kane’s future. Ange Postecoglou’s arrival has been overshadowed by that uncertainty but the Australian coach showed at Celtic that he can achieve success by bringing in new players that he rates. It still feels very early in a new cycle for Spurs, though.

I really like the business done by Newcastle as they look to build on last year’s surprise fourth-place finish. In Tonali and Harvey Barnes they have made big improvements in key areas. St James’ Park has become a fortress again and worth points on its own.

Eddie Howe’s big challenge is balancing the demands of playing in the Champions League and Premier

League. The Toon and Liverpool look to me like the strongest candidates for fourth place.

RELEGATION

I’m sorry to say that I think Luton Town’s long-awaited return to the topflight will be short lived, while I can’t see Sheffield United staying up either. Burnley have gone under the radar somewhat due to the assuredness of manager Vincent Kompany. I think they’ll make Turf Moor a tough place to go and could be a surprise package. That leaves one more place in the bottom three, which I think will be a fourway fight between Wolves, Everton, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest. It pains me to say it, but Everton have been battling the drop for two years and until they prove otherwise I think my old team will be doing it again.

£ Trevor Steven is a former England footballer who played at two World Cups and two European Championships. @TrevorSteven63

It pains me to say it, but I think my old team Everton may be battling the drop again

SPORT

Industry sector tops front of shirt list for pro English teams

MATT HARDY

INDUSTRIES have overtaken consumer services as the chief sector for front of shirt sponsors in England’s top sports with automotive brands facing a newfound slump, according to new research released today.

Of the 225 clubs assessed – across men’s and women’s football, rugby union, rugby league and cricket – just under 15 per cent, or one in seven, saw industries on the front of shirt, and none of those are in the Premier League.

That is, though, an increase of 10 per cent on last year, according to the data by Caytoo.

But in the coming years, as the Premier League looks to faze out gambling sponsors – which currently account for a third of club’s front of shirt advertisers – industry, or other key sectors, could see a further rise in representation. Automotive deals account for just 7.7 per cent, with the likes of second hand car dealership Cazoo not renewing a number of deals, including in cricket. Travel and Tourism saw the highest increase in front of shirt appearances – with four extra deals taking their total to a touch under 10 per cent –while John Pye Auctions tops the individual sponsor list, with the sales house sponsoring five clubs in and around Nottinghamshire.

BOXING

PREMIER LEAGUE PREVIEW

Trevor Steven on whether anyone can stop Haaland and City

CITY A.M. REPORTER

ROBERT Helenius will step in and fight Anthony Joshua this weekend at the O2 Arena after the British heavyweight’s original opponent Dillian Whyte had “adverse analytical findings” detected in a drugs test.

The organisers of the fight, Matchroom, found a new opponent for Joshua within 72 hours of the fight’s initial cancellation but the new challenger, 39-year-old Helenius, fought only last weekend in Finland.

“This wasn’t in the script,” Joshua said. “I respect Helenius and, may I say, I respect any male or female who

“The overarching point is that a relatively unsexy sector like industrials being top of the pile is a surprise,” Alex Burmaster, Caytoo’s head of research and analysis, told City A.M.

“The early days of the Premier League had household names as sponsors, and thing have changed in the last 30 years. Teams are looking for timing partners, tyre partners and an online delivery partner but no one is saying they need a construction partner or an industrials partner.

“There are lots of firms out there who could be a viable sponsor for many clubs. Industrials are

Football safer for fans now than 30 years ago

MATT HARDY

big in front of shirt elsewhere but there isn’t one in the Premier League.”

Gambling is the most common sub-sector in football while manufacturing and engineering is the most common in cricket – rugby’s most common sub-sector is home and garden with 10.9 per cent compared to just 0.03 per cent in football and zero per cent in cricket.

Cinch is the only brand named in the top 10 who span football, rugby and cricket with their sponsorships of Crystal Palace and Northampton Saints among others. Dafabet, Huboo, Utilita, Emirates, Seat Unique, Uptonsteel, Kia and Knight Frank complete the top 10.

FOOTBALL has become a “safer, more inclusive and more welcoming” sport over the past 30 years, according to antidiscrimination group Kick It Out.

The organisation celebrated its three decade anniversary yesterday and has released an impact report on the progress made in football.

The study found that 70 per cent of fans said they would call out a friend if they were engaging in discriminatory behaviour but that just over a third of people said they’d call out a stranger.

Just under a third of people have experienced discriminatory behaviour towards themselves or

others online with over three quarters stating online abuse is having an impact on the inclusivity of football.

Kick It Out chair Sanjay Bhandari said: “As this report demonstrates, Kick It Out has changed the face of football for the better since its inception 30 years ago.

“Fans from minority groups believe football is now safer, more inclusive and more welcoming, because of Kick It Out’s work. We also know from this report that Kick It Out has given people more confidence to call out or report discrimination, and we have seen evidence of this firsthand through our own annual reporting statistics.

“As we reach this historic

milestone it gives us a moment to stop and reflect on the journey that we have been on, but we know that there is still much work to be done and this research only serves to highlight that fans overwhelmingly want more action to tackle discrimination throughout the game.

“Now is not the time for the game to rest on its laurels. We remain unwavering in our resolve to end all forms of discrimination in sport for good and need stakeholders across sport to join us on that journey.”

UK Sport Minister Stuart Andrew said: “Everybody should feel comfortable to play the sport they love or follow the team they support.”

steps into the ring. I am laserfocused on the win. I can make steps forward to bigger and better things but the road map has a check point – Saturday night. May the best man win.”

Helenius said: “I am excited about fighting Anthony Joshua. I am a true Viking that is willing to face any challenge. This is not an opportunity I was going to let slip away. I plan to make the most of it.”

Helenius has a record of 32-4, with 21 knockouts and has beaten Brit Derek Chisora.

Ryder Cup and Citi

partner for

next two tournaments

CITY A.M. REPORTER

INVESTMENT bank Citi will become a leading partner of the Ryder Cup for the next two editions of the intercontinental golfing tournament.

The New York headquartered firm will become a worldwide partner and official financial services partner to the biennial tournament, which this year takes place in Rome before heading to Bethpage Black, NY, in 2025.

The partnership will see Citi card holders gain benefits in time for the 2025 competition between Team USA and Team Europe.

“We are delighted to welcome a company of Citi’s global scale and reputa-

tion to the Ryder Cup worldwide partner family,” Ryder Cup director Guy Kinnings said.

“Rome promises to be a spectacular backdrop for the 2023 match and as Official Financial Services Partner, there will be scope to offer Citi customers exclusive offers that will help elevate their experience when following golf’s greatest team contest.”

PGA chief commercial officer Jeff Price said: “We are proud to partner with Citi and welcome them to the Ryder Cup family.

The Ryder Cup takes place in the Italian capital in September as Europe look to regain the trophy after an historic defeat to the USA last time out.

Cinch are across football, rugby and cricket deals

GOLF

Helenius steps in to fight Joshua after bout just a week ago