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ZİRAAT PORTFÖY YÖNETİMİ A.Ş. HAFTALIK STRATEJİ 16 Ekim 2012

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I.I TAHVİL BONO PİYASASI

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8.4.11 8.5.11 8.6.11 8.7.11 8.8.11 8.9.11 8.10.11

8.4.11 8.5.11 8.6.11 8.7.11 8.8.11 8.9.11 8.10.11

80

60

40

20 0

8.10.12

100

8.9.12

8.8.12

8.7.12

8.6.12

8.5.12

8.4.12

8.3.12

8.2.12

8.1.12

8.12.11

8.11.11

120

8.9.12

8.8.12

8.7.12

8.6.12

8.5.12

8.4.12

8.3.12

8.2.12

8.1.12

8.12.11

8.11.11

8.3.11

8.11.10

8.10.10

8.9.10

8.8.10

8.3.11

6

8.2.11

7

8.2.11

8

8.1.11

9

8.1.11

10

8.12.10

11

8.12.10

8.11.10

8.10.10

8.9.10

8.8.10

8.7.10

8.6.10

1,6340

1,2956

8.7.10

Last

0,9572

0,6188

0,2804

8.6.10

Gözlem

-0,0580

-0,3964

8.5.10

Spread Özet

-0,7348

12 10Y

BMK

-1,0732

8.4.10

0,6000 0,4750 0,1250 0,5975 0,6368 0,5061 1,6340 - 1,7500 -1,4116

8.5.10

Son Ortalama Ortalamadan Fark Medyan StdSapma Percentile Maksimum 12/01/11 Minimum 10/01/12 -1,7500

8.4.10

BENCH/10Y SPREAD Kümülatif 100,00% 90,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00%

1,5 2

0,5 1

-0,5 0

-1,5 -1

-2

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BENCH/10Y SPREAD (TEMMUZ’DAN ITIBAREN) 10Y BMK

8,8

8,6

8,4

8,2

7,8 8

7,6

7,4

7,2

7

15.10.12

8.10.12

1.10.12

24.9.12

17.9.12

10.9.12

3.9.12

27.8.12

20.8.12

13.8.12

6.8.12

30.7.12

23.7.12

16.7.12

9.7.12

2.7.12

1,2

1

0,8

0,6

0,4

0,2

0

8.10.12

1.10.12

24.9.12

17.9.12

10.9.12

3.9.12

27.8.12

20.8.12

13.8.12

6.8.12

30.7.12

23.7.12

16.7.12

9.7.12

2.7.12

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8.31.2012

6.30.2012

4.30.2012

2.29.2012

12.31.2011

10.31.2011

8.31.2011

6.30.2011

4.30.2011

2.28.2011

12.31.2010

10.31.2010

8.31.2010

6.30.2010

4.30.2010

2.28.2010

12.31.2009

TR BENCHMARK FAİZİ GÜNLÜK

12

11,5

11

10,5

10

9,5

9

8,5

8

7,5

7

6,5

6

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TR BENCHMARK - TRYUSD SWAP CURVE

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2Y, 5Y, 7Y,10Y

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TCMB FAİZLERİ

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TCMB FONLAMASI

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EKİM İHALE PROGRAMI

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I.II. HİSSE SENETLERİ PİYASASI

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İMKB 100 75000

70000

65000

60000 38,2 55000

23,6

50000 MİN 45000

40000 0

Mak Min Ortalama StdSapma Son

100

200

71.777 48.080 60.360 5.335 69.690

300

20 50 ORTALAMA 200

400

500

67.553 66.686 61.016

600

23,6 38,2 50 61,8

FİBO

700

800

53.673 57.132 59.929 62.725

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İMKB 100 SON 2 AY XU100 71000

70000

69000

68000

67000

66000

65000

64000

63000

10.14.2012 10.12.2012 10.10.2012 10.8.2012 10.6.2012 10.4.2012 10.2.2012 9.30.2012 9.28.2012 9.26.2012 9.24.2012 9.22.2012 9.20.2012 9.18.2012 9.16.2012 9.14.2012 9.12.2012 9.10.2012 9.8.2012 9.6.2012 9.4.2012 9.2.2012 8.31.2012 8.29.2012 8.27.2012 8.25.2012 8.23.2012 8.21.2012 8.19.2012 8.17.2012 8.15.2012

FİBO

53.673 57.132 59.929 62.725 23,6 38,2 50 61,8 67.553 66.686 61.016 20 50 ORTALAMA 200 71.777 48.080 60.360 5.335 69.520 Mak Min Ortalama StdSapma Son

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İMKB 100 RELATİF PERFORMANSI

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İMKB SEKTÖRLER RELATİF II

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İMKB SEKTÖRLER RELATİF III

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YABANCI MENKUL STOKU

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II. ULUSLARARASI PİYASALAR

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MARKET YIELDS COUNTRY PX PX CHG YIELD US TREASURY N/B 99,64063 -0,07031 1,66 CANADIAN GOVERNMENT 108,39 -0,006 1,79 FED REPUBLIC OF BRAZIL 162,95 3,05E-06 2,53 REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 150,75 -0,3 2,89 UNITED MEXICAN STATES 145 0 2,78 UK TSY 1.75% 2022 100,105 -0,17 1,74 FRANCE (GOVT OF) 101,068 0,138 2,12 BUNDESREPUB. DEUTSCHLAND 100,232 -0,276 1,47 BUONI POLIENNALI DEL TES 104,94 0,332998 4,92 BONOS Y OBLIG DEL ESTADO 101,138 -0,57 5,66 OBRIGACOES DO TESOURO 78,667 -0,051 7,83 SWEDISH GOVERNMENT 117,874 -0,315 1,48 NETHERLANDS GOVERNMENT 104,76 -0,265 1,71 SWITZERLAND 114,468 0,208997 0,44 HELLENIC REPUBLIC 32,127 1,317001 17,08 JAPAN-325(10 YR ISSUE) 100,433 0,073 0,75 AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT 122,178 0,136 3,02 NEW ZEALAND GOVERNMENT 117,7973 0,386665 3,44 KOREA TREASURY BOND 108,069 0,095371 2,92

YLD CHG 0,87 0,05 - 0,10 2,21 - 0,20 1,87 - 1,50 3,01 - 4,23 7,98 0,89 3,16 2,88 - 2,10 - 59,72 - 0,90 - 1,40 - 4,05 - 1,00

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1400 1350 1300 1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900 8.10.12

8.9.12

8.8.12

8.7.12

8.6.12

8.5.12

8.4.12

8.3.12

8.2.12

8.1.12

8.12.11

8.11.11

8.10.11

TLT

1500 1450 1400 1350 1300 1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 140

130

120

110

100

90

Gözlem

Son Ortalama Ortalamadan Fark Medyan StdSapma Percentile Maksimum 14/09/12 Minimum 02/07/10

1347,47

1304,90

1262,33

1219,77

1177,20

1134,63

1092,06

1049,49

1006,93

964,36

921,79

8.10.12

8.9.12

8.8.12

8.7.12

8.6.12

8.5.12

8.4.12

8.3.12

8.2.12

8.1.12

8.12.11

8.11.11

8.9.11

8.8.11

8.7.11

8.6.11

8.5.11

8.4.11

8.3.11

8.2.11

8.1.11

8.12.10

8.11.10

8.10.10

8.9.10

8.8.10

8.7.10

8.6.10

8.5.10

8.4.10

SPX

8.10.11

8.9.11

8.8.11

8.7.11

8.6.11

8.5.11

8.4.11

8.3.11

8.2.11

8.1.11

8.12.10

8.11.10

8.10.10

8.9.10

8.8.10

8.7.10

8.6.10

8.5.10

8.4.10

SPX VS TLT Spread Özet 1.304,6200 1.156,5697 148,0503 1.180,6000 101,4651 0,9574 1.347,4700 921,7900

80 Kümülatif

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10 0

100,00% 90,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00%

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8.10.12

8.9.12

8.8.12

8.7.12

8.6.12

8.5.12

8.4.12

8.3.12

8.2.12

8.1.12

8.12.11

8.11.11

8.10.11

8.9.11

1500 1450 1400 1350 1300 1250 1200 1150 1100 1050 1000 60

40

30

20

10

0

1550 80

1450 70

1350

1250 40

1150 30

1050

950 Gözlem

Son Ortalama Ortalamadan Fark Medyan StdSapma Percentile Maksimum 14/09/12 Minimum 02/07/10

1451,41

1405,56

1359,70

1313,85

1268,00

1222,15

1176,29

1130,44

1084,59

1038,73

992,88

8.10.12

8.9.12

8.8.12

8.7.12

8.6.12

8.5.12

8.4.12

8.3.12

8.2.12

8.1.12

8.12.11

8.11.11

8.10.11

8.8.11

8.7.11

8.6.11

8.5.11

8.4.11

8.3.11

8.2.11

8.1.11

8.12.10

8.11.10

8.10.10

8.9.10

8.8.10

8.7.10

8.6.10

8.5.10

8.4.10

SPX

8.9.11

8.8.11

8.7.11

8.6.11

8.5.11

8.4.11

8.3.11

8.2.11

8.1.11

8.12.10

8.11.10

8.10.10

8.9.10

8.8.10

8.7.10

8.6.10

8.5.10

8.4.10

S&P 500 ve VXO ENDEKSİ VXO

Spread Özet

50

1.412,8500 1.242,5465 170,3035 1.261,2550 110,1625 0,9590 1.451,4100 992,8800

Kümülatif

60

50

20

10 0

100,00% 90,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00%

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Takvim Date Time 16-18 OCT 16-18 OCT 16-19 OCT 10/16/2012 10/16/2012 10/16/2012 10/16/2012 10/16/2012 10/16/2012 10/16/2012 10/16/2012 10/16/2012 10/16/2012 10/16/2012

10:00 11:00 11:00 12:00 12:00 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30

CH CH CH TU IT IT GE GE US US US US US US

11) 12) 13) 14) 15) 16) 17) 18) 19) 20) 21) 22) 23) 24)

10/16/2012 10/16/2012 10/16/2012 10/16/2012 10/16/2012 10/16/2012 10/16/2012

16:00 16:00 16:00 16:15 16:15 16:15 17:00

IT US US US US US US

25) 26) 27) 28) 29) 30) 31)

10/17/2012 10/17/2012 10/17/2012 10/17/2012 10/17/2012 10/17/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012 10/18/2012

13:00 14:00 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 04:30 05:00 05:00 05:00 05:00 05:00 05:00 05:00 05:00 12:00 14:00 14:00 15:30 15:30 16:45 16:45 17:00 17:00

GE US US US US US CH CH CH CH CH CH CH CH CH IT TU TU US US US US US US SP SP SP

32) 33) 34) 35) 36) 37) 38) 39) 40) 41) 42) 43) 44) 45) 46) 47) 48) 49) 50) 51) 52) 53) 54) 55) 56) 57) 58)

10/19/2012 10/19/2012 10/19/2012 10/19/2012 10/19/2012 10/19/2012 10/19/2012 10/19/2012 10/19/2012

04:35 09:00 09:00 11:00 11:00 11:00 11:00 17:00 17:00

CH GE GE IT IT IT IT US US

59) 60) 61) 62) 63) 64) 65) 66) 67)

Event Business Climate Index Entrepreneur Confidence Index Actual FDI (YoY) Consumer Confidence Trade Balance (Total) (Euros) Trade Balance Eu (Euros) Zew Survey (Current Situation) ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) Consumer Price Index (MoM) CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) Consumer Price Index (YoY) CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) Consumer Price Index NSA CPI Core Index SA Bank of Italy Releases the Quarterly Economic Bulletin Total Net TIC Flows Net Long-term TIC Flows Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Manufacturing (SIC) Production NAHB Housing Market Index German Government Releases New MacroEconomic Forecasts MBA Mortgage Applications Housing Starts Housing Starts MOM% Building Permits Building Permits MOM% China September Property Price Real GDP (YoY) Real GDP YTD (YoY) Real GDP (QoQ) Industrial Production (YoY) Industrial Production YTD YoY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD YoY Retail Sales (YoY) Retail Sales YTD YoY Current Account (mlns euro) Benchmark Repo Rate Overnight Lending Rate Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Bloomberg Economic Expectations Philadelphia Fed. Leading Indicators House Price Index QoQ House Price Index YoY Trade Balance (Mln Euros) MNI October Flash Business Sentiment Indicator Producer Prices (MoM) Producer Prices (YoY) Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM) Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY) Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) Existing Home Sales Existing Home Sales MoM

3Q 3Q Sep Sep Aug Aug Oct Oct Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep

Survey ---3.5% ---11.AÄ&#x;u -14.9 0.5% 0.2% 1.9% 2.0% 231.319 --

Actual ---------------

-----41 --

Prior 126.9 121.2 -1.4% 91.1 4490M 2653M 12.Haz -18.2 0.6% 0.1% 1.7% 1.9% 230.379 230.244

$73.7B $67.0B -1.2% 78.2% -0.7%

Revised ---------------

-----40 --

Relevance 290.323 258.065 129.032 60 444.444 25 947.368 982.456 935.185 748.148 555.556 444.444 259.259 305.556

Ticker CHBUBCIN Index CHEUOALL Index CNDIINVY Index TUCNCC Index ITTRALEE Index ITTRALEX Index GRZECURR Index GRZEWI Index CPI CHNG Index CPUPXCHG Index CPI YOY Index CPI XYOY Index CPURNSA Index CPUPAXFE Index

0 638.889 722.222 861.111 602.778 277.778 37.037

FRNTTNET Index FRNTTOTL Index IP CHNG Index CPTICHNG Index IPMGCHNG Index USHBMIDX Index

Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Oct

-$48.0B 0.2% 78.3% 0.3%

Oct 12 Sep Sep Sep Sep

-770K 2.7% 810K 1.1%

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-1.2% 750K 2.3% 803K -1.0%

3Q 3Q 3Q Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Aug Oct 18 Oct 18 Oct 13 Oct 6 Oct 14 Oct Oct Sep 3Q 3Q Aug

7.4% 7.7% 2.0% 9.0% 10.0% 20.2% 13.2% 14.0% -5.75% 9.50% 365K 3275K --1.0 0.2% -2.8% --2500.0M

---------------------

7.6% 7.8% 1.8% 8.9% 10.1% 20.2% 13.2% 14.1% 1594M 5.75% 10.00% 339K 3273K -38.5

---------------8 --1.9 --0.1% --2.5% --8.3% --1692.6M --

0 944.444 87.963 175.926 615.741 157.407 0 935.484 225.806 645.161 806.452 612.903 548.387 774.194 580.645 194.444 65 0 990.741 693.519 611.111 222.222 75 842.593 354.839 322.581 483.871

Sep Sep Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep

0.3% 1.6% ----4.75M -1.6%

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0.5% 1.6% 2.9% -4.9% 1.2% -5.3% 4.82M 7.8%

0 561.404 578.947 583.333 50 361.111 388.889 87.037 50

---801K --

---------

MBAVCHNG Index NHSPSTOT Index NHCHSTCH Index NHSPATOT Index NHCHATCH Index CNGDPYOY Index CNGDPC$Y Index CNGDPQOQ Index CHVAIOY Index CHVAICY Index CNFAYOY Index CNRSCYOY Index CNRSACMY Index ITCAEUR Index TUBR1WRA Index TUBRONRA Index INJCJC Index INJCSP Index COMFCOMF Index COMFBTWR Index OUTFGAF Index LEI CHNG Index SPHSOVQ Index SPHSOVY Index SPTBEUBL Index

GRPFIMOM Index GRPFIYOY Index ITORTSAM Index ITORTOTY Index ITISTSAM Index ITISTOTY Index ETSLTOTL Index ETSLMOM Index

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Haftalık Strateji 16-10-2012