Issuu on Google+

HAFTALIK STRATEJİ 30/07/2013


I.I TAHVİL BONO PİYASASI


TEMMUZ 2013 HAZİNE İHALE PROGRAMI


BENCH/10Y SPREAD BMK

10Y

12

11 10 9 8 7 6 5

Spread Özet

Gözlem

11.7.13

11.6.13

11.5.13

11.4.13

11.3.13 Kümülatif

70

100,00% 90,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00%

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

1,2650

0,9865

0,7080

0,4295

0,1510

-0,1275

-0,4060

-0,6845

-0,9630

-1,2415

0,1000 0,3813 - 0,2813 0,6000 0,6686 0,2809 1,2650 - 1,5200

-1,5200

Son Ortalama Ortalamadan Fark Medyan StdSapma Percentile Maksimum 20/02/13 Minimum 05/01/12

11.2.13

11.1.13

11.12.12

11.11.12

11.10.12

11.9.12

11.8.12

11.7.12

11.6.12

11.5.12

11.4.12

11.3.12

11.2.12

11.1.12

11.12.11

11.11.11

11.10.11

4


BENCH/10Y SPREAD (SON 2 AY)

26.7.13

19.7.13

12.7.13

5.7.13

28.6.13

21.6.13

14.6.13

7.6.13

31.5.13

26.07.2013

19.07.2013

12.07.2013

05.07.2013

28.06.2013

21.06.2013

14.06.2013

07.06.2013

31.05.2013 -0,2

10Y BMK

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

1,4

1,2

1

0,8

0,6

0,4

0,2

0


11

10,5

7

10

6

9,5

9

8,5

01.06.2013

11,5

01.04.2013

9

01.02.2013

12

01.12.2012

10

01.10.2012

12,5

01.08.2012

01.06.2012

01.04.2012

01.02.2012

01.12.2011

01.10.2011

01.08.2011

TR BENCHMARK FAİZİ GÜNLÜK

8

5

4

8

7,5

7

6,5

6

5,5

5

4,5

4


US-TEN FAİZİ GÜNLÜK 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 01.08.2011

Mak Min Ortalama StdSapma Son

01.11.2011

28,2 13,9 19,2 2,6 25,6

01.02.2012

01.05.2012

01.08.2012

20 50 ORTALAMA 200

01.11.2012

25,6 23,4 19,4

01.02.2013

23,6 38,2 50 61,8

01.05.2013

FİBO

17,3 19,4 21,1 22,8


TR YC-TRYUSD SWAP CURVE


EM Currency


EMERGING 10Y


TCMB FAİZLERİ


TCMB FONLAMASI


TRY 20 GÜN VOLATILITE 2

0,2

1,974

0,18 1,95 0,16 1,9

0,14 0,12

1,85

0,1 1,8

0,08 0,06

1,75

0,04 1,7 0,02 1,65 06.06.2011

14.09.2011

23.12.2011

01.04.2012

10.07.2012

18.10.2012

26.01.2013

06.05.2013

14.08.2013

0 22.11.2013


ALTIN 2000 1900

1800 1700 1600

1500 1400 1300

1200 1100 1000 06.06.2011

Mak Min Ortalama StdSapma Son

14.09.2011

23.12.2011

1.921 1.181 1.628 132 1.335

01.04.2012

10.07.2012

20 50 ORTALAMA 200

18.10.2012

1.285 1.327 1.544

26.01.2013

06.05.2013

23,6 38,2 50 61,8

FİBO

14.08.2013

22.11.2013

1.355 1.463 1.551 1.638


I.II. HİSSE SENETLERİ PİYASASI


İMKB 100 100000

90000

80000

70000

60000

50000

40000 06.06.2011

14.09.2011

23.12.2011

Mak Min Ortalama StdSapma Son

93.398 48.600 67.026 11.209 72.767

01.04.2012

10.07.2012

20 50 ORTALAMA 200

18.10.2012

74.467 78.266 79.265

26.01.2013

23,6 38,2 50 61,8

FİBO

06.05.2013

59.173 65.713 70.999 76.285

14.08.2013

22.11.2013


İMKB 100 SON 2 AY XU100 -SON 2 AY 95000

90000

85000

80000

75000

70000

65000

28.07.2013 26.07.2013 24.07.2013 22.07.2013 20.07.2013 18.07.2013 16.07.2013 14.07.2013 12.07.2013 10.07.2013 08.07.2013 06.07.2013 04.07.2013 02.07.2013 30.06.2013 28.06.2013

26.06.2013 24.06.2013 22.06.2013 20.06.2013 18.06.2013 16.06.2013 14.06.2013 12.06.2013 10.06.2013 08.06.2013 06.06.2013 04.06.2013 02.06.2013 31.05.2013 29.05.2013

FİBO

59.173 65.713 70.999 76.285 23,6 38,2 50 61,8 74.467 78.266 79.265 20 50 ORTALAMA 200 93.398 48.600 67.026 11.209 72.767 Mak Min Ortalama StdSapma Son


İMKB 100 RELATİF PERFORMANSI (EMERGING) .XU100IBV

.XU100RTS

.XU100KSP

.XU100SOA

.XU100BSE

XU100

220,00%

200,00%

180,00%

160,00%

140,00%

120,00%

100,00%

80,00% 23.12.2011

01.04.2012

10.07.2012

18.10.2012

26.01.2013

06.05.2013

14.08.2013

22.11.2013


İMKB 100 RELATİF PERFORMANSI (DEVELOPED) .XU100NKY

.XU100DAX

.XU100FUT

.XU100SPX

.XU100HSI

.XU100SHC

XU100

160,00%

150,00%

140,00%

130,00%

120,00%

110,00%

100,00%

90,00%

80,00% 23.12.2011

01.04.2012

10.07.2012

18.10.2012

26.01.2013

06.05.2013

14.08.2013

22.11.2013


İMKB 100 MSCI RELATİF PERFORMANS

Turkiye MSCI Endekslerine Göre Relatif Getiri Günlük Haftalik EM Genel Asya Latin Amerika EM Dogu Avrupa EM Avrupa Avrupa OrtaDogu Afrika

-2,0% -2,3% -1,9% -1,6% -1,3% -1,3%

-6,0% -6,7% -6,6% -3,5% -2,8% -2,8%

Aylik -3,7% -4,0% -2,7% -6,8% -4,8% -4,8%

Bu Yıl -7% -10% 0% -6% -5% -5%

1 Yıl 4% -3% 20% 6% 5% 5%

3 Yıl -5% -13% 15% 2% 1% 1%

5 Yıl 18% 1% 47% 89% 74% 60%


İMKB SEKTÖRLER RELATİF XBANK

120,00%

XHOLD

XUSIN

XUHIZ

115,00%

110,00%

105,00%

100,00%

95,00%

90,00%

85,00%

80,00% 23.12.2011

01.04.2012

10.07.2012

18.10.2012

26.01.2013

06.05.2013

14.08.2013

22.11.2013


YABANCI MENKUL STOKU


II. ULUSLARARASI PİYASALAR


MARKET YIELDS


GELİŞMİŞ PİYASALAR


Takvim Date Time 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/30/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013

09:00 10:00 10:00 10:00 10:00 10:00 10:00 11:00 11:00 11:00 11:00 13:00 13:00 15:00 15:00 15:00 15:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 17:00

09:00 09:00 10:00 10:00 10:00 10:55 10:55 11:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 13:00 13:00 14:00 15:15

GE GE GE SP SP SP SP GE GE GE GE GE GE GE GE GE GE US US US US GE GE GE GE SP SP SP GE GE SP SP TU GE GE IT IT IT IT IT IT IT US US

1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11) 12) 13) 14) 15) 16) 17) 18) 19) 20) 21) 22) 23) 24) 25) 26) 27) 28) 29) 30) 31) 32) 33) 34) 35) 36) 37) 38) 39) 40) 41) 42) 43) 44)

Event GfK Consumer Confidence CPI - Saxony MoM CPI - Saxony YoY GDP QoQ GDP YoY CPI - EU Harmonised YoY CPI YoY CPI - Brandenburg MoM CPI - Brandenburg YoY CPI - Hesse MoM CPI - Hesse YoY CPI - Bavaria MoM CPI - Bavaria YoY CPI MoM CPI YoY CPI - EU Harmonised MoM CPI - EU Harmonised YoY S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index NSA Consumer Confidence Index CPI - Baden Wuerttemberg MoM CPI - Baden Wuerttemberg YoY CPI - North Rhine-West. MoM CPI - North Rhine-West. YoY Housing Permits MoM Housing Permits YoY Spain Budget Balance YtD Retail Sales MoM Retail Sales YoY Retail Sales WDA YoY Retail Sales YoY Trade Balance Unemployment Change (000's) Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate CPI NIC incl. tobacco MoM CPI NIC incl. tobacco YoY CPI - EU Harmonized MoM CPI - EU Harmonized YoY PPI MoM PPI YoY MBA Mortgage Applications ADP Employment Change

Aug Jul Jul 2Q P 2Q P Jul P Jul P Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul P Jul P Jul P Jul P May May May Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jun P Jul P Jul P Jul P Jul P Jun Jun Jul 26 Jul

Survey 06.Eyl ---0.1% -1.8% 1.9% 1.7% ------0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 1.8% 1.45% 12.40% -81.0 -------0.2% 0.5% -4.7% --10.00B 0K 6.8% 12.3% 0.3% 1.4% -1.6% 1.5% 0.0% -1.1% -180K


Takvim Date Time 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 07/31/2013 08/01/2013 08/01/2013 08/01/2013

15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 16:00 16:45 21:00

US US US US US US US US US SP CH CH TU

45) 46) 47) 48) 49) 50) 51) 52) 53) 54) 55) 56) 57)

08/01/2013 08/01/2013 08/01/2013 08/01/2013 08/01/2013 08/01/2013 08/01/2013 08/01/2013 08/01/2013 08/01/2013 08/01/2013 08/01/2013 08/01/2013 08/01/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013

10:15 10:45 10:55 14:30 14:30 15:30 15:30 15:58 16:45 17:00 17:00 17:00 19:00 00:00 00:00 10:00

SP IT GE US US US US US US US US US IT IT US US SP

58) 59) 60) 61) 62) 63) 64) 65) 66) 67) 68) 69) 70) 71) 72) 73) 74)

08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013 08/02/2013

15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 16:45 17:00

US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US US

75) 76) 77) 78) 79) 80) 81) 82) 83) 84) 85) 86) 87) 88) 89) 90) 91) 92) 93)

04:00 04:45 10:00

Event Bureau of Economic Analysis Release Annual Revisions of GDP Employment Cost Index GDP Annualized QoQ Personal Consumption GDP Price Index Core PCE QoQ ISM Milwaukee Chicago Purchasing Manager FOMC Rate Decision Current Account Balance Manufacturing PMI HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI Turkey Manufacturing PMI Spain July Manufacturing PMI; Forecast 50.6 PMI Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing Challenger Job Cuts YoY RBC Consumer Outlook Index Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Markit US PMI Final Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Construction Spending MoM ISM Manufacturing ISM Prices Paid New Car Registrations YoY Budget Balance Total Vehicle Sales Domestic Vehicle Sales Unemployment MoM Net ('000s) Personal Income and Spending Annual Revisions Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Two-Month Payroll Net Revision Change in Private Payrolls Change in Manufact. Payrolls Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings MoM Average Hourly Earnings YoY Average Weekly Hours All Employees Change in Household Employment Underemployment Rate Personal Income Personal Spending PCE Deflator MoM PCE Deflator YoY PCE Core MoM PCE Core YoY ISM New York Factory Orders

Survey

Actual

2Q 2Q A 2Q A 2Q A 2Q A Jul Jul Jul 31 May Jul Jul

0.4% 1.0% 1.6% 1.0% 1.1% 52.00 54.0 0.25% -49.8 47.7

------------

Jul Jul F Jul Aug Jul 27 Jul 20 Jul Jul 28 Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul

49.7 50.3 --344K 3000K 53.2 -0.4% 52.0 54.0 --15.80M 12.40M -75.0

-----------------

Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jun

185K -187K 0K 7.5% 0.2% 2.2% 34.5 --0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 1.3% 0.1% 1.1% -2.3%

-------------------


Haftalık Strateji 30 07 2013