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HAFTALIK STRATEJİ 26/03/2013


I.I TAHVİL BONO PİYASASI


MART 2013 HAZİNE İHALE PROGRAMI


BENCH/10Y SPREAD BMK

10Y

12 11

10 9 8 7 6

Spread Ă–zet Son Ortalama Ortalamadan Fark Medyan StdSapma Percentile Maksimum 20/02/13 Minimum 05/01/12

0,8450 0,3214 0,5236 0,3800 0,6007 0,8234 1,2650 - 1,5200

28.2.13

28.1.13

28.12.12

28.11.12

28.10.12

28.9.12

28.8.12

28.7.12

28.6.12

28.5.12

28.4.12

28.3.12

28.2.12

28.1.12

28.12.11

28.11.11

28.10.11

28.9.11

28.8.11

28.7.11

28.6.11

28.5.11

28.4.11

28.3.11

5


BENCH/10Y SPREAD (SON 2 AY) 10Y BMK

7,5

7

6,5

6

5,5

5

22.3.13

15.3.13

8.3.13

1.3.13

22.2.13

15.2.13

8.2.13

1.2.13

25.1.13

1,4

1,2

1

0,8

0,6

0,4

0,2

0

22.03.2013

15.03.2013

08.03.2013

01.03.2013

22.02.2013

15.02.2013

08.02.2013

01.02.2013

25.01.2013


NSS EĞRİSİ FittedCurveNSS

0

1

2

3

4

Yields/Market

5

6

Yields/Model

7

8

9

10

11

9,00%

8,00%

TRT080323T10

7,00%

TRT120122T17 TRT140922T17 TRT150120T16

Faizler

TRT140218T10

6,00% TRT080317T18

5,00%

4,00%

3,00% Yıl


NSS CHEAP RICH TABLO Issuer

Coupon Maturity

Bid

Ask

TRT150513T11

0,00%

15.05.2013

99,24

99,25

TRT170713T17

0,00%

17.07.2013

98,21

98,24

TRT280813T13

16,00%

28.08.2013

104,00

104,25

TRT110913T11

0,00%

11.09.2013

97,30

97,34

TRT091013T12

8,00%

09.10.2013

101,00

101,15

TRT041213T23

10,00%

04.12.2013

102,65

102,75

TRT290114T18

8,00%

29.01.2014

101,60

101,69

TRT050314T14

9,00%

05.03.2014

102,65

102,80

TRT090414T19

0,00%

09.04.2014

93,66

94,08

TRT040614T12

8,00%

04.06.2014

101,00

102,43

TRT110614T13

0,00%

11.06.2014

92,90

93,04

TRT060814T18

11,00%

06.08.2014

106,30

106,50

TRT240914T15

7,50%

24.09.2014

101,90

102,00

TRT070115T13

6,50%

07.01.2015

100,47

100,52

TRT170615T16

10,00%

17.06.2015

107,60

107,90

TRT270116T18

9,00%

27.01.2016

106,70

107,00

TRT080317T18

9,00%

08.03.2017

108,65

108,90

TRT140218T10

6,30%

14.02.2018

98,00

99,00

TRT150120T16

10,50%

15.01.2020

119,40

119,55

TRT120122T17

9,50%

12.01.2022

115,00

116,50

TRT140922T17

8,50%

14.09.2022

109,25

110,00

TRT080323T10

7,10%

08.03.2023

99,90

100,10

Mid Clean Mid Dirty 0,992 0,992 0,982 0,982 1,041 1,054 0,973 0,973 1,011 1,048 1,027 1,058 1,016 1,029 1,027 1,033 0,939 0,939 1,017 1,042 0,930 0,930 1,064 1,079 1,020 1,020 1,005 1,019 1,078 1,105 1,069 1,083 1,088 1,092 0,985 0,992 1,195 1,215 1,158 1,177 1,096 1,099 1,000 1,004

Model Price

Duration Weights (wi) (cheap) / rich 99,280% 0,136111 26,58% (0,04%) 98,254% 0,308333 11,73% (0,03%) 105,361% 0,427778 8,46% 0,01% 97,335% 0,458333 7,89% (0,02%) 104,729% 0,517065 7,00% 0,06% 105,694% 0,665521 5,44% 0,12% 102,782% 0,822618 4,40% 0,13% 103,123% 0,920434 3,93% 0,13% 93,954% 1,036111 3,49% (0,09%) 104,622% 1,13259 3,19% (0,42%) 92,993% 1,208333 2,99% (0,02%) 107,823% 1,28702 2,81% 0,10% 102,011% 1,44144 2,51% (0,02%) 102,043% 1,688386 2,14% (0,12%) 110,535% 2,008464 1,80% (0,04%) 108,299% 2,54317 1,42% 0,03% 108,798% 3,423118 1,06% 0,43% 98,966% 4,243467 0,85% 0,27% 121,381% 5,110977 0,71% 0,16% 118,069% 6,255761 0,58% (0,37%) 110,198% 6,809943 0,53% (0,29%) 100,519% 7,275376 0,50% (0,16%)


(10Y-2Y)/2Y


6,1

11 6

10,5

10 5,7

9,5 5,6

28.01.2013

11,5

28.11.2012

12

28.09.2012

12,5

28.07.2012

28.05.2012

28.03.2012

28.01.2012

28.11.2011

28.09.2011

28.07.2011

28.05.2011

28.03.2011

TR BENCHMARK FAİZİ GÜNLÜK 6,4

6,3

6,2

5,9

5,8

9

8,5

8

7,5

7

6,5

6

5,5

5


TR BENCHMARK - TRYUSD SWAP CURVE


2-10 YIL SPREAD


2Y, 4Y,10Y – 2Y,10Y TRYUSD SWAP


TÜFE KAĞITLARI BAŞABAŞ ENFLASYON


TCMB FAİZLERİ


TCMB FONLAMASI


ALTIN


I.II. HİSSE SENETLERİ PİYASASI


İMKB 100 90000 85000 80000 75000 70000 65000 60000 55000 50000 45000 40000 18.11.2010

26.02.2011

06.06.2011

Mak Min Ortalama StdSapma Son

86.787 48.600 64.068 8.634 82.743

14.09.2011

23.12.2011

20 50 ORTALAMA 200

01.04.2012

81.380 81.017 71.569

10.07.2012

23,6 38,2 50 61,8

FİBO

18.10.2012

57.612 63.188 67.694 72.200

26.01.2013

06.05.2013


İMKB 100 SON 2 AY XU100 88000

83000

78000

73000

68000

63000

24.03.2013 22.03.2013 20.03.2013 18.03.2013 16.03.2013 14.03.2013 12.03.2013 10.03.2013 08.03.2013 06.03.2013 04.03.2013 02.03.2013 28.02.2013 26.02.2013 24.02.2013 22.02.2013

20.02.2013 18.02.2013 16.02.2013 14.02.2013 12.02.2013 10.02.2013 08.02.2013 06.02.2013 04.02.2013 02.02.2013 31.01.2013 29.01.2013 27.01.2013 25.01.2013 23.01.2013

FİBO

57.612 63.188 67.694 72.200 23,6 38,2 50 61,8 81.380 81.017 71.569 20 50 ORTALAMA 200 86.787 48.600 64.068 8.634 82.743 Mak Min Ortalama StdSapma Son


İMKB 100 RELATİF PERFORMANSI (EMERGING) .XU100IBV

.XU100RTS

.XU100KSP

.XU100SOA

.XU100BSE

XU100

200,00%

180,00%

160,00%

140,00%

120,00%

100,00%

80,00% 11.02.2012

01.04.2012

21.05.2012

10.07.2012

29.08.2012

18.10.2012

07.12.2012

26.01.2013

17.03.2013

06.05.2013


İMKB 100 RELATİF PERFORMANSI (DEVELOPED) .XU100NKY

.XU100DAX

.XU100FUT

.XU100SPX

.XU100HSI

.XU100SHC

XU100

160,00%

150,00%

140,00%

130,00%

120,00%

110,00%

100,00%

90,00%

80,00% 11.02.2012

01.04.2012

21.05.2012

10.07.2012

29.08.2012

18.10.2012

07.12.2012

26.01.2013

17.03.2013

06.05.2013


İMKB 100 MSCI RELATİF PERFORMANS

Turkiye MSCI Endekslerine Göre Relatif Getiri Günlük Haftalik Aylik Bu Yıl 1 Yıl 3 Yıl 5 Yıl EM Genel Asya Latin Amerika EM Dogu Avrupa EM Avrupa Avrupa OrtaDogu Afrika

0,8% 0,7% 0,9% 1,0% 0,8% 0,8%

0,0% -0,4% 0,5% 0,5% 0,4% 0,4%

12% 13% 10% 14% 11% 11%

7% 7% 5% 8% 7% 7%

37% 33% 47% 49% 39% 39%

25% 43% 19% 34% 39% 51% 41% 125% 34% 100% 34% 82%


İMKB SEKTÖRLER RELATİF XBANK

115,00%

XHOLD

XUSIN

XUHIZ

110,00%

105,00%

100,00%

95,00%

90,00%

85,00%

80,00% 11.02.2012

01.04.2012

21.05.2012

10.07.2012

29.08.2012

18.10.2012

07.12.2012

26.01.2013

17.03.2013

06.05.2013


YABANCI MENKUL STOKU


II. ULUSLARARASI PİYASALAR


MARKET YIELDS


GELİŞMİŞ PİYASALAR


EMERGING


Takvim Date Time 03/26/2013 10:00 03/26/2013 10:00 03/26/2013 11:00 03/26/2013 14:00 03/26/2013 14:00 03/26/2013 14:00 03/26/2013 14:30 03/26/2013 14:30 03/26/2013 14:30 03/26/2013 14:30 03/26/2013 15:00 03/26/2013 15:00 03/26/2013 15:00 03/26/2013 16:00 03/26/2013 16:00 03/26/2013 16:00 03/26/2013 16:00 03/26/2013 03/27/2013 09:00 03/27/2013 09:00 03/27/2013 09:00 03/27/2013 10:00 03/27/2013 10:00 03/27/2013 10:00 03/27/2013 10:00 03/27/2013 10:00 03/27/2013 11:00 03/27/2013 11:00 03/27/2013 11:00 03/27/2013 11:00 03/27/2013 12:00 03/27/2013 12:00 03/27/2013 13:00 03/27/2013 16:00 03/27/2013 16:00 03/27/2013 03/27/2013 03/27/2013

SP SP TU TU TU TU US US US US US US US US US US US SP GE GE GE SP SP TU SP SP IT IT IT IT IT IT US US US SP SP SP

1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11) 12) 13) 14) 15) 16) 17) 18) 19) 20) 21) 22) 23) 24) 25) 26) 27) 28) 29) 30) 31) 32) 33) 34) 35) 36) 37) 38)

Event Mortgages-capital loaned (YoY) Mortgages on Houses (YoY) Foreign Tourist Arrivals YoY Benchmark Repo Rate Overnight Lending Rate Overnight Borrowing Rate Durable Goods Orders Durables Ex Transportation Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Consumer Confidence New Home Sales New Home Sales MoM Spain Budget Balance YtD Import Price Index (MoM) Import Price Index (YoY) GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Adjusted Real Retail Sales YoY Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) Consumer Confidence CPI (EU Harmonised) (YoY) Consumer Price Index (YoY) Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM) Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY) Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) Retail Sales (YoY) MBA Mortgage Applications Pending Home Sales MoM Pending Home Sales YoY Current Account (Euros) Total Housing Permits (MoM) Total Housing Permits (YoY)

Jan Jan Feb Mar.26 Mar.26 Mar.26 Feb Feb Feb Feb Jan Jan Jan Mar Mar Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Apr Feb Feb Mar Mar P Mar P Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Mar.22 Feb Feb Jan Jan Jan

Survey ---5.50% 8.50% 4.50% 3.9% 0.6% -1.1% 1.5% 0.80% 7.85% 146.17 6 67.5 420K -3.9% -0.2% -1.6% 05.Eyl -10.0% --2.7% 2.7% 0.6% -5.0% --0.0% -3.0% --0.3% 8.7% ----

Actual ---------------------------------------

Prior -28.1% -27.8% 12.5% 5.50% 8.50% 4.50% -5.2% 1.9% 6.3% -1.0% 0.88% 6.84% 145.95 6 69.6 437K 15.6% -12.73B 0.1% -0.8% 05.Eyl -10.2% -9.0% 76.7 2.9% 2.8% -1.8% -15.3% 0.8% -6.3% 0.2% -3.8% -7.1% 4.5% 10.4% 4.9B -18.5% -44.3%


Takvim

Haftalık Strateji 26-03-2013  

Haftalık Strateji 26-03-2013

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