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HAFTALIK STRATEJİ 07/05/2013


I.I TAHVİL BONO PİYASASI


MAYIS 2013 HAZİNE İHALE PROGRAMI

BİLEŞİK

İTFA TARİHİ AÇIKLAMA 14.02.2018 11.03.2020 13.05.2015 08.03.2023 03.05.2023 06.08.2014

5 YIL/ 1736 GÜN/ 6 AYDA BİR SBT KUP. 7 YIL/ 2492 GÜN/ 6 AYDA BİR .DEĞ. KUP.

2 YIL/ 728 GÜN/ 6 AYDA BİR SBT. KUP. 10 YIL/ 3584 GÜN/ 6 •AYDA BİR SBT. KUP. 10 YIL/ 3640 GÜN/ 6 AYDA BİR . KUP. TÜFEX 15 AY/441 GÜN / İSKONTOLU

İHALE TARİHİ

VALÖR TARİHİ

İHALE

MİNİMUM MAKSİMUM ORTALAMA

NOMİNAL

NET

13.05.2013

15.05.2013

0.00

0.00

0.00

0

0

13.05.2013

15.05.2013

0.00

0.00

0.00

0

0

14.05.2013

15.05.2013

0.00

0.00

0.00

0

0

14.05.2013

15.05.2013

0.00

0.00

0.00

0

0

14.05.2013

15.05.2013

0.00

0.00

0.00

0

0

21.05.2013

22.05.2013

0.00

0.00

0.00

0

0

0

0

TOPLAM

BORÇLANMA ROLL OVER

HEDEF BORÇLANMA

(Milyon TL)

İTFA

HEDEF R/O

KALAN BORÇ

KAMU

1,876

0

0.00%

1,900

101.28%

1,900

PİYASA

14,817

0

0.00%

12,600

85.04%

12,600

TOPLAM

16,693

0

0.00%

14,500

86.86%

14,500


BENCH/10Y SPREAD BMK

10Y

12 11

10 9 8 7 6

Spread Özet

Gözlem

19.4.13

19.3.13

19.2.13

19.1.13

19.12.12 Kümülatif

80

100,00% 90,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00%

70 60 50 40

30 20 10 0

1,2650

0,9865

0,7080

0,4295

0,1510

-0,1275

-0,4060

-0,6845

-0,9630

-1,2415

1,1000 0,3701 0,729883 0,5630 0,6492 0,9404 1,2650 - 1,5200

-1,5200

Son Ortalama Ortalamadan Fark Medyan StdSapma Percentile Maksimum 20/02/13 Minimum 05/01/12

19.11.12

19.10.12

19.9.12

19.8.12

19.7.12

19.6.12

19.5.12

19.4.12

19.3.12

19.2.12

19.1.12

19.12.11

19.11.11

19.10.11

19.9.11

19.8.11

19.7.11

5


BENCH/10Y SPREAD (SON 2 AY) 10Y BMK

7,5

7

6,5

6

5,5

5

3.5.13

26.4.13

19.4.13

12.4.13

5.4.13

29.3.13

22.3.13

15.3.13

8.3.13

1,2

1

0,8

0,6

0,4

0,2

0

03.05.2013

26.04.2013

19.04.2013

12.04.2013

05.04.2013

29.03.2013

22.03.2013

15.03.2013

08.03.2013


(10Y-2Y)/2Y


09.03.2013

09.01.2013

09.11.2012

09.09.2012

09.07.2012

09.05.2012

09.03.2012

09.01.2012

09.11.2011

09.09.2011

09.07.2011

09.05.2011

TR BENCHMARK FAİZİ GÜNLÜK

12,5

12

11,5

11

10,5

10

9,5

9

8,5

8

7,5

7

6,5

6

5,5

5

4,5

4


TR YC - TRYUSD SWAP CURVE


EM 10Y


EMERGING 2*10


TCMB FAİZLERİ


TCMB FONLAMASI


TRY VOLATILITE


ALTIN


I.II. HİSSE SENETLERİ PİYASASI


İMKB 100 100000

90000

80000

70000

60000

50000

40000 26.02.2011

06.06.2011

14.09.2011

Mak Min Ortalama StdSapma Son

89.987 48.600 65.052 9.883 89.769

23.12.2011

01.04.2012

20 50 ORTALAMA 200

10.07.2012

84.544 83.015 74.940

18.10.2012

23,6 38,2 50 61,8

FİBO

26.01.2013

58.367 64.410 69.293 74.177

06.05.2013

14.08.2013


İMKB 100 SON 2 AY XU100 -SON 2 AY 91000

89000

87000

85000

83000

81000

79000

77000

75000

73000

05.05.2013 03.05.2013 01.05.2013 29.04.2013 27.04.2013 25.04.2013 23.04.2013 21.04.2013 19.04.2013 17.04.2013 15.04.2013 13.04.2013 11.04.2013 09.04.2013 07.04.2013 05.04.2013

03.04.2013 01.04.2013 30.03.2013 28.03.2013 26.03.2013 24.03.2013 22.03.2013 20.03.2013 18.03.2013 16.03.2013 14.03.2013 12.03.2013 10.03.2013 08.03.2013 06.03.2013

FİBO

58.367 64.410 69.293 74.177 23,6 38,2 50 61,8 84.544 83.015 74.940 20 50 ORTALAMA 200 89.987 48.600 65.052 9.883 89.723 Mak Min Ortalama StdSapma Son


İMKB 100 RELATİF PERFORMANSI (EMERGING) .XU100IBV

.XU100RTS

.XU100KSP

.XU100SOA

.XU100BSE

XU100

200,00%

180,00%

160,00%

140,00%

120,00%

100,00%

80,00% 11.02.2012

01.04.2012

21.05.2012

10.07.2012

29.08.2012

18.10.2012

07.12.2012

26.01.2013

17.03.2013

06.05.2013

25.06.2013


İMKB 100 RELATİF PERFORMANSI (DEVELOPED) .XU100NKY

.XU100DAX

.XU100FUT

.XU100SPX

.XU100HSI

.XU100SHC

XU100

160,00%

150,00%

140,00%

130,00%

120,00%

110,00%

100,00%

90,00%

80,00% 11.02.2012 01.04.2012 21.05.2012 10.07.2012 29.08.2012 18.10.2012 07.12.2012 26.01.2013 17.03.2013 06.05.2013 25.06.2013


İMKB 100 MSCI RELATİF PERFORMANS

Turkiye MSCI Endekslerine Göre Relatif Getiri Günlük Haftalik Aylik Bu Yıl 1 Yıl 3 Yıl 5 Yıl EM Genel Asya Latin Amerika EM Dogu Avrupa EM Avrupa Avrupa OrtaDogu Afrika

-0,1% 0,3% -0,4% -1,9% -1,5% -1,5%

3,9% 4,2% 4,2% 2,3% 1,8% 1,8%

2,7% 1,8% 5,9% 4,0% 2,4% 2,4%

15% 14% 14% 20% 16% 16%

46% 44% 53% 52% 40% 40%

14% 55% 10% 43% 25% 75% 28% 145% 19% 112% 19% 93%


İMKB SEKTÖRLER RELATİF XBANK

115,00%

XHOLD

XUSIN

XUHIZ

110,00%

105,00%

100,00%

95,00%

90,00%

85,00%

80,00% 11.02.2012

01.04.2012

21.05.2012

10.07.2012

29.08.2012

18.10.2012

07.12.2012

26.01.2013

17.03.2013

06.05.2013

25.06.2013


YABANCI MENKUL STOKU


II. ULUSLARARASI PİYASALAR


MARKET YIELDS


GELİŞMİŞ PİYASALAR


Takvim Date Time 05/07/2013 13:00 05/07/2013 13:00 05/07/2013 17:00 05/07/2013 17:00 05/07/2013 22:00 05/08/2013 10:00 05/08/2013 10:00 05/08/2013 13:00 05/08/2013 13:00 05/08/2013 14:00 05/08/2013 05/08/2013 05/08/2013 05/09/2013 04:30 05/09/2013 04:30

GE GE US US US TU TU GE GE US CH CH CH CH CH

1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11) 12) 13) 14) 15)

05/09/2013 09:35 05/09/2013 09:45 05/09/2013 09:50 05/09/2013 10:00 05/09/2013 10:00 05/09/2013 15:30 05/09/2013 15:30

GE IT SP SP SP US US

16) 17) 18) 19) 20) 21) 22)

05/09/2013 15:45 05/09/2013 16:45 05/09/2013 17:00 05/09/2013 17:00 05/10/2013 09:00 05/10/2013 09:00 05/10/2013 09:00 05/10/2013 09:00 05/10/2013 11:00 05/10/2013 11:00 05/10/2013 11:00 05/10/2013 21:00 10-15 MAY 10-15 MAY 10-15 MAY 10-15 MAY 10-15 MAY

US US US US GE GE GE GE IT IT IT US CH CH CH CH CH

23) 24) 25) 26) 27) 28) 29) 30) 31) 32) 33) 34) 35) 36) 37) 38) 39)

Event Factory Orders MoM (sa) Factory Orders YoY (nsa) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism JOLTs Job Openings Consumer Credit Industrial Production WDA SA (MoM) Industrial Production WDA (YoY) Industrial Production MoM (sa) Industrial Prod. YoY (nsa wda) MBA Mortgage Applications Trade Balance (USD) Exports YoY% Imports YoY% Consumer Price Index (YoY) Producer Price Index (YoY) Bloomberg May Germany Economic Survey Bloomberg May Italy Economic Survey Bloomberg May Spain Economic Survey Industrial Output WDA (YoY) Industrial Output NSA (YoY) Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Wholesale Inventories Wholesale Sales MoM Trade Balance Current Account (EURO) Imports SA (MoM) Exports SA (MoM) Industrial Production sa (MoM) Industrial Production wda(YoY) Industrial Production nsa(YoY) Monthly Budget Statement New Yuan Loans Money Supply - M0 (YoY) Money Supply - M1 (YoY) Money Supply - M2 (YoY) Aggregate Financing

Mar Mar May Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar May.03 Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr

Survey -0.5% -2.9% 47.5 3770 $15.500B -3.3% -0.1% -3.8% -$16.15B 9.1% 13.0% 2.3% -2.3%

Actual ----------------

Prior 2.3% 0.0% 46.2 3925 $18.139B 1.5% 4.4% 0.5% -1.8% 1.8% -$0.88B 10.0% 14.1% 2.1% -1.9%

Mar Mar May.04 Apr 27

-5.3% -335K 3018K

-----

-6.5% -8.5% 324K 3019K

May.05 Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr

-0.3% 0.1% 17.5B 19.5B 1.5% 0.5% -0.3% -3.9% -6.9% $107.0B 755.0B 12.0% 11.0% 15.5% 1500.0B

-----------------

-28.9 -0.3% 1.7% 16.8B 16.0B -3.8% -1.5% -0.8% -3.8% -7.6% -1060.0B 12.4% 11.9% 15.7% 2540.0B


Haftalık Strateji 07-05-2013