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HAFTALIK STRATEJİ 26/02/2013


I.I TAHVİL BONO PİYASASI


ŞUBAT 2013 HAZİNE İHALE PROGRAMI


BENCH/10Y SPREAD BMK

10Y

12 11

10 9 8 7 6

Spread Ă–zet Son Ortalama Ortalamadan Fark Medyan StdSapma Percentile Maksimum 20/02/13 Minimum 05/01/12

1,2000 0,2924 0,9076 0,3550 0,5827 0,9885 1,2650 - 1,5200

31.1.13

31.12.12

30.11.12

31.10.12

30.9.12

31.8.12

31.7.12

30.6.12

31.5.12

30.4.12

31.3.12

29.2.12

31.1.12

31.12.11

30.11.11

31.10.11

30.9.11

31.8.11

31.7.11

30.6.11

31.5.11

30.4.11

31.3.11

28.2.11

5


BENCH/10Y SPREAD (SON 2 AY) 10Y BMK

7,5

7

6,5

6

5,5

5

22.2.13

15.2.13

8.2.13

1.2.13

25.1.13

18.1.13

11.1.13

4.1.13

28.12.12

1,4

1,2

1

0,8

0,6

0,4

0,2

0

02.03.2013

23.02.2013

16.02.2013

09.02.2013

02.02.2013

26.01.2013

19.01.2013

12.01.2013

05.01.2013

29.12.2012

22.12.2012


NSS EĞRİSİ FittedCurveNSS

0

1

2

3

4

Yields/Market

5

6

Yields/Model

7

8

9

10

9,00%

8,00%

7,00%

Faizler

TRT140218T10

TRT120122T17 TRT150120T16

6,00% TRT080317T18

5,00%

4,00%

3,00% Yıl

TRT140922T17

11


NSS CHEAP RICH TABLO Issuer

Coupon Maturity

Bid

Ask

TRT200313T16

0,00%

20.03.2013

99,67

99,67

TRT100413T17

10,00%

10.04.2013

100,50

100,60

TRT150513T11

0,00%

15.05.2013

98,87

98,87

TRT170713T17

0,00%

17.07.2013

97,98

98,01

TRT280813T13

16,00%

28.08.2013

105,18

105,25

TRT110913T11

0,00%

11.09.2013

97,15

97,16

TRT091013T12

8,00%

09.10.2013

101,57

101,60

TRT041213T23

10,00%

04.12.2013

103,39

103,48

TRT290114T18

8,00%

29.01.2014

102,32

102,40

TRT050314T14

9,00%

05.03.2014

103,35

103,40

TRT040614T12

8,00%

04.06.2014

103,00

103,05

TRT060814T18

11,00%

06.08.2014

107,40

107,50

TRT240914T15

7,50%

24.09.2014

102,85

102,87

TRT070115T13

6,50%

07.01.2015

101,51

101,55

TRT170615T16

10,00%

17.06.2015

108,95

109,13

TRT270116T18

9,00%

27.01.2016

108,10

108,35

TRT080317T18

9,00%

08.03.2017

110,53

110,57

TRT140218T10

6,30%

14.02.2018

100,50

100,53

TRT150120T16

10,50%

15.01.2020

121,15

121,40

TRT120122T17

9,50%

12.01.2022

117,60

117,70

TRT140922T17

8,50%

14.09.2022

111,60

111,70

Mid Clean Mid Dirty 0,997 0,997 1,005 1,043 0,989 0,989 0,980 0,980 1,052 1,131 0,972 0,972 1,016 1,046 1,034 1,057 1,024 1,030 1,034 1,077 1,030 1,048 1,075 1,081 1,029 1,060 1,015 1,024 1,090 1,110 1,082 1,090 1,105 1,147 1,005 1,007 1,213 1,225 1,177 1,188 1,117 1,155

Model Price

Duration Weights (wi) (cheap) / rich 99,675% 0,066667 34,02% (0,01%) 104,364% 0,122222 18,56% (0,04%) 98,888% 0,219444 10,34% (0,02%) 97,965% 0,391667 5,79% 0,03% 113,136% 0,470206 4,82% (0,01%) 97,155% 0,541667 4,19% 0,00% 104,582% 0,600449 3,78% 0,04% 105,647% 0,748912 3,03% 0,06% 102,829% 0,906005 2,50% 0,13% 107,717% 0,962948 2,36% (0,07%) 104,819% 1,216337 1,86% 0,03% 108,095% 1,370607 1,65% (0,03%) 106,071% 1,474023 1,54% (0,04%) 102,469% 1,772276 1,28% (0,05%) 111,146% 2,09303 1,08% (0,19%) 109,142% 2,628405 0,86% (0,19%) 114,418% 3,374771 0,67% 0,33% 100,102% 4,334586 0,52% 0,62% 122,637% 5,207043 0,44% (0,17%) 119,192% 6,360703 0,36% (0,38%) 115,476% 6,66746 0,34% (0,00%)


(10Y-2Y)/2Y


17.11.2012

17.09.2012

17.07.2012

17.05.2012

17.03.2012

17.01.2012

17.11.2011

17.09.2011

17.07.2011

17.05.2011

17.03.2011

17.01.2011

TR BENCHMARK FAİZİ GÜNLÜK

12,5

12

11,5

11

10,5

10

9,5

9

8,5

8

7,5

7

6,5

6

5,5

5


TR BENCHMARK - TRYUSD SWAP CURVE


WORLD CURRENCY RANKER (YTD)


10Y ASSET SWAP


2Y, 4Y,10Y – 2Y,10Y TRYUSD SWAP


TÜFE KAĞITLARI BAŞABAŞ ENFLASYON


TCMB FAİZLERİ


TCMB FONLAMASI


ALTIN


I.II. HİSSE SENETLERİ PİYASASI


İMKB 100 90000 85000 80000 75000 70000 65000 60000 55000 50000 45000 40000 18.11.2010

26.02.2011

06.06.2011

Mak Min Ortalama StdSapma Son

86.787 48.600 63.334 7.891 76.383

14.09.2011

23.12.2011

20 50 ORTALAMA 200

01.04.2012

78.822 79.908 69.073

10.07.2012

23,6 38,2 50 61,8

FİBO

18.10.2012

57.612 63.188 67.694 72.200

26.01.2013

06.05.2013


İMKB 100 SON 2 AY XU100 88000

83000

78000

73000

68000

63000

24.02.2013 22.02.2013 20.02.2013 18.02.2013 16.02.2013 14.02.2013 12.02.2013 10.02.2013 08.02.2013 06.02.2013 04.02.2013 02.02.2013 31.01.2013 29.01.2013 27.01.2013 25.01.2013

23.01.2013 21.01.2013 19.01.2013 17.01.2013 15.01.2013 13.01.2013 11.01.2013 09.01.2013 07.01.2013 05.01.2013 03.01.2013 01.01.2013 30.12.2012 28.12.2012 26.12.2012

FİBO

57.612 63.188 67.694 72.200 23,6 38,2 50 61,8 78.822 79.908 69.073 20 50 ORTALAMA 200 86.787 48.600 63.334 7.891 76.383 Mak Min Ortalama StdSapma Son


İMKB 100 RELATİF PERFORMANSI .XU100NKY

.XU100RTS

.XU100RUT

.XU100SPX

.XU100BSE

.XU100CL1

XU100

200,00%

180,00%

160,00%

140,00%

120,00%

100,00%

80,00% 03.11.2011

23.12.2011

11.02.2012

01.04.2012

21.05.2012

10.07.2012

29.08.2012

18.10.2012

07.12.2012

26.01.2013

17.03.2013

06.05.2013


İMKB SEKTÖRLER RELATİF II 190,00%

XBANK

XUTEK

XULAS

XUHIZ

XMESY

XTAST

XHOLD

170,00%

150,00%

130,00%

110,00%

90,00%

70,00% 03.11.2011

23.12.2011

11.02.2012

01.04.2012

21.05.2012

10.07.2012

29.08.2012

18.10.2012

07.12.2012

26.01.2013

17.03.2013

06.05.2013


İMKB SEKTÖRLER RELATİF III


YABANCI MENKUL STOKU


II. ULUSLARARASI PİYASALAR


MARKET YIELDS COUNTRY PX PX CHG YIELD YLD CHG US TREASURY N/B 97,67188 -0,03906 1,89 0,56 CANADIAN GOVERNMENT 106,779 -0,045 1,94 0,49 FED REPUBLIC OF BRAZIL 155 0 2,98 (0,09) REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 144,75 -0,25 3,28 2,05 UNITED MEXICAN STATES 138,75 -6,25 3,21 60,62 UK TSY 1.75% 2022 96,805 -0,123 2,12 1,47 FRANCE (GOVT OF) 100,185 -0,023 2,23 0,30 BUNDESREPUB. DEUTSCHLAND 99,945 -0,08 1,51 0,91 BUONI POLIENNALI DEL TES 109,298 0,658001 4,36 (8,17) BONOS Y OBLIG DEL ESTADO 106,863 0,413003 4,87 (5,61) OBRIGACOES DO TESOURO 90,3 0,020001 6,15 (0,26) SWEDISH GOVERNMENT 112,548 -0,066 1,99 0,70 NETHERLANDS GOVERNMENT 103,785 -0,088 1,80 0,99 SWITZERLAND 111,888 0,044998 0,65 (0,58) HELLENIC REPUBLIC 52,863 0,208001 10,79 (4,92) JAPAN-325(10 YR ISSUE) 101,095 0,208 0,68 (2,40) AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT 116,899 0,287 3,50 (3,10) NEW ZEALAND GOVERNMENT 113,6803 0,169575 3,83 (1,94) KOREA TREASURY BOND 106,7532 0,091995 2,97 (1,01)


SPX VS TLT SPX

TLT

Spread Özet

31.1.13

31.12.12

30.11.12

31.10.12

30.9.12

Kümülatif

80

100,00% 90,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00%

70

60 50 40 30 20

10 0

1415,02

1371,06

1327,10

1283,14

1239,18

1195,22

1151,26

1107,30

1063,34

1019,38

1.398,5700 1.224,0976 174,4724 1.234,6300 88,0342 0,9827 1.415,0200 975,4200

31.8.12

31.7.12

Gözlem

975,42

Son Ortalama Ortalamadan Fark Medyan StdSapma Percentile Maksimum 19/02/13 Minimum 03/10/11

30.6.12

31.5.12

30.4.12

31.3.12

80 29.2.12

1000 31.1.12

90

31.12.11

1100

30.11.11

100

31.10.11

1200

30.9.11

110

31.8.11

1300

31.7.11

120

30.6.11

1400

31.5.11

130

30.4.11

1500

31.3.11

140

28.2.11

1600


S&P 500 ve VXO ENDEKSİ SPX

VXO

Gözlem

100,00% 90,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00%

60 50

40 30 20 10 0

1519,57

1472,98

1426,39

1379,80

1333,21

1286,62

1240,02

1193,43

1146,84

1100,25

1.501,8600 1.318,2106 183,6494 1.323,9300 96,5734 0,9827 1.519,5700 1.053,6600

1053,66

Son Ortalama Ortalamadan Fark Medyan StdSapma Percentile Maksimum 19/02/13 Minimum 03/10/11

31.1.13

Kümülatif

70

Spread Özet

31.12.12

30.11.12

31.10.12

30.9.12

31.8.12

31.7.12

30.6.12

31.5.12

30.4.12

31.3.12

0 29.2.12

1000 31.1.12

10

31.12.11

1100

30.11.11

20

31.10.11

1200

30.9.11

30

31.8.11

1300

31.7.11

40

30.6.11

1400

31.5.11

50

30.4.11

1500

31.3.11

60

28.2.11

1600


Takvim Date Time 02/25/2013 02/25/2013 02/25/2013 02/25/2013 02/25/2013 02/26/2013 02/26/2013 02/26/2013 02/26/2013 02/26/2013 02/26/2013 02/26/2013 02/26/2013 02/26/2013 02/26/2013 02/26/2013 02/26/2013 02/26/2013 02/26/2013 02/27/2013 02/27/2013 02/27/2013 02/27/2013 02/27/2013 02/27/2013 02/27/2013 02/27/2013 02/27/2013 02/27/2013 02/27/2013 02/27/2013 02/27/2013

03:45 10:00 10:00 15:30 17:30 10:00 10:00 11:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 16:00 17:00 17:00 17:00 17:00 09:00 09:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 11:00 14:00 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 17:00 17:00

CH SP SP US US SP SP TU US US US US US US US US US US US GE GE GE TU IT IT US US US US US US US

1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11) 12) 13) 14) 15) 16) 17) 18) 19) 20) 21) 22) 23) 24) 25) 26) 27) 28) 29) 30) 31) 32)

02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013

03:35 10:00 10:00 10:00 10:00 10:00

CH GE GE SP SP TU

33) 34) 35) 36) 37) 38)

Event HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Producer Prices (MoM) Producer Prices (YoY) Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Mortgages-capital loaned (YoY) Mortgages on Houses (YoY) Foreign Tourist Arrivals YoY S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YOY% S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI House Price Index MoM House Price Purchase Index QoQ Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Consumer Confidence New Home Sales New Home Sales MoM Import Price Index (MoM) Import Price Index (YoY) GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Consumer Confidence Economic Sentiment Business Confidence MBA Mortgage Applications Durable Goods Orders Durables Ex Transportation Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Pending Home Sales MoM Pending Home Sales YoY MNI February Business Sentiment Indicator CPI - Saxony (MoM) CPI - Saxony (YoY) GDP (Constant SA) (QoQ) GDP (Constant SA) (YoY) Trade Balance

Feb Jan Jan Jan Feb Dec Dec Jan Dec Dec Dec 4Q 4Q Dec 4Q Feb Feb Jan Jan Jan Jan Mar Feb Feb Feb Feb 22 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan

Survey 52.2 ---03.May ---0.60% 6.60% 145.82 7.00% -0.6% --4 62.0 380K 3.0% 0.5% -0.4% 05.Eyl --88.4 --4.7% 0.2% 0.2% -1.3% 1.6% 7.9%

Actual 50.4 1.1% 2.6% -0.32 02.Şub ----------------------------

Prior 52.3 -0.1% 2.7% 0.02 05.May -34.4% -31.6% 12.4% 0.63% 5.52% 145.82 3.64% 135.67 0.6% 1.1% -12 58.6 369K -7.3% -0.5% 0.3% 05.Ağu 75.8 79.9 88.2 -1.7% 4.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.3% -4.3% 4.9%

Feb Feb 4Q F 4Q F Jan

---0.7% -1.8% -7.10B

------

-0.5% 1.8% -0.7% -1.8% -7.18B

02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013

10:00 10:00 10:00 10:55 10:55 11:00 11:00 11:00 11:00 13:00 13:00 15:00

TU SP SP GE GE GE GE GE GE GE GE GE

39) 40) 41) 42) 43) 44) 45) 46) 47) 48) 49) 50)

Bloomberg Feb. Turkey Economic Survey CPI (EU Harmonised) (YoY) Feb P Consumer Price Index (YoY) Feb P Unemployment Change (000's) Feb Unemployment Rate (s.a) Feb CPI - Brandenburg (MoM) Feb CPI - Brandenburg (YoY) Feb CPI - Hesse (MoM) Feb CPI - Hesse (YoY) Feb CPI - Bavaria (MoM) Feb CPI - Bavaria (YoY) Feb Consumer Price Index (MoM) Feb P

2.8% 2.7% 0K 6.8% ------0.7%

------------

2.8% 2.7% -16K 6.8% -0.6% 1.4% -0.5% 1.7% -0.6% 1.8% -0.5%


Takvim II 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 02/28/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013

15:00 15:00 15:00 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 16:00 16:45 16:45 18:00

03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013 03/01/2013

10:15 10:45 10:55 11:00 11:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 12:00 13:00 13:00 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:30 15:58 16:55 17:00 17:00 17:00 19:00

03:00 03:45 09:00 09:00 10:00

GE GE GE US US US US US US US US US US SP GE GE GE GE SP SP CH CH GE GE TU

51) 52) 53) 54) 55) 56) 57) 58) 59) 60) 61) 62) 63) 64) 65) 66) 67) 68) 69) 70) 71) 72) 73) 74) 75)

SP IT GE IT IT IT IT IT IT IT IT US US US US US US US US US US US IT IT IT

76) 77) 78) 79) 80) 81) 82) 83) 84) 85) 86) 87) 88) 89) 90) 91) 92) 93) 94) 95) 96) 97) 98) 99) 100)

Consumer Price Index (YoY) CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) GDP QoQ (Annualized) Personal Consumption GDP Price Index Core PCE QoQ Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims NAPM-Milwaukee Chicago Purchasing Manager Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Current Account (Euros) CPI - Baden Wuerttemberg (MoM) CPI - Baden Wuerttemberg (YoY) CPI - North Rhine-West. (MoM) CPI - North Rhine-West. (YoY) Total Housing Permits (MoM) Total Housing Permits (YoY) Manufacturing PMI HSBC Manufacturing PMI Retail Sales (MoM) Retail Sales (YoY) Turkey Manufacturing PMI Spain February Manufacturing PMI; Forecast 46.3 PMI Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing Unemployment Rate (SA) Unemployment Rate (s.a) CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) Deficit to GDP Annual GDP Personal Income Personal Spending PCE Deflator (MoM) PCE Deflator (YoY) PCE Core (MoM) PCE Core (YoY) Markit US PMI Final U. of Michigan Confidence Construction Spending MoM ISM Manufacturing ISM Prices Paid New Car Registrations (YoY) Budget Balance Budget Balance (Year to date)

Feb P Feb P Feb P 4Q S 4Q S 4Q S 4Q S Feb 23 Feb 16 Feb Feb Feb 24 Feb Dec Feb Feb Feb Feb Dec Dec Feb Feb Jan Jan

1.7% 0.7% 1.7% 0.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.9% 360K 3140K 52.0 54.0 --1 -------50.5 50.6 0.9% -1.7%

-------------------------

1.7% -0.7% 1.9% -0.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.9% 362K 3148K 51.3 55.6 -33.4

Feb Feb F Jan P 4Q Feb P Feb P Feb P Feb P 2012 2012 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb F Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb

47.5 50.1 11.3% 11.2% 0.3% 2.1% 0.1% 2.4% 3.0% -2.2% -2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 1.3% 55.2 76.3 0.4% 52.5 57.3 ----

-------------------------

47.8 50.1 11.2% 10.6% 0.2% 2.2% -2.0% 2.4% 3.9% 0.4% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 1.4% -76.3 0.9% 53.1 56.5 -17.58% -2.2B -2.2B

-2 1.8B -0.6% 1.3% -0.5% 1.7% -5.3% -28.4% 50.4 52.3 -1.7% -4.7%


Haftalık Strateji 26-02-2013