Sustainable Mobility The Way Forward Henry Oâ€™Clery Executive Director Future Climate Australia Automotive Training Australia 2007 Conference
Future Climate Australia
Not-for-Profit Specialists in Greenhouse Impacts of Transport & Food Chain Reducing Emissions at Source Promoting fuel efficient technologies & low carbon fuels
Providing Offset Services Providing a native biodiversity forest program and Verified Emission Reduction Units (VERs) to reduce carbon concentrations in the atmosphere
Calculator at www.futureclimate.com.au
Climate Change o Climate Change is happening now o Is largely human induced due to burning fossil fuels o Impacts are going to be fundamental and dramatic o For current businesses and for future generations.
Consequences for Australia Change will be progressive:
Sea level rise & more powerful storm surges Increased Drought & Bushfire Ecology moving South More severe & more numerous weather events Reduction in soil moisture & stream flows Water becoming a critical commodity Energy becoming progressively more expensive Every resource & process has a carbon footprint!
Itâ€™s all about Risk! We consider risk every time we take out insurance on our life, house or car, or when we travel on a plane. Scientists rank climate change as very high risk (95% probability), with great penalty attached to delay. Precautionary principle says that we should cover ourselves If we take immediate action we can reduce the impacts, and also set ourselves on course to thrive in a future low carbon world. Australia will soon be introducing a Carbon Trading regimen that will impact on how we do business.
Â‰ What are the Threats and Opportunities facing us? Â‰ How do we move from here to where we need to be?
The Automobile - Three Basics Energy Available
• Petrol/diesel/LPG/CNG/Hydrogen/Synfuel/Biofuel • Battery/Supercapicator • Refuel – Liquid/Gas/Electricity
• Loses 87% between tank & wheels • Uses 17% of fuel standing still (urban cycle)
• Do we need 1.8 to 2.5 tonnes to carry 80kg?
Energy Usage There is Scope for Improvement LOSSES DUE TO:
100 80 60
• Drivetrain inefficiency Energy in fuel
• Weight • Rolling Resistance • Aerodynamics
Losses in Drivetrain
• Cross Section • In urban cycle up to 17% fuel used when stationary
40 20 13%
0 Energy Available
Available at Wheels
Used to move 80kg
International Energy Agency • •
~870 million cars on the roads worldwide China 20 cars per 1,000; by 2030 will be 140 by: From 40 million cars now to 207 million
• Price of oil will skyrocket as supply cannot meet projected demand by 2015
• To limit temperature increase to 2 degrees we need to stabilise emissions by 2012
• By 2030 we will need cars that use 60% less fuel • $1 spent on fuel efficiency will save the country $2.50 in oil imports
NOTE: IEA is traditionally very conservative in its’ statements!
Meeting Future Energy Demand Energy Efficiency & Reduced Demand Solar Wind Advanced Nuclear Advanced Gas Advanced Coal Conventional Biomass Carbon capture and sequestration
Adapted by Graeme Pearman from Battelle: similar approach used by Princeton University, see Socolow et al. Environment , 46 (2004)
Personal Mobility? â€˘ The Segway way ---------
On the other hand ------
EU a lia PS 2 0 8 0% 15 A Pe M C u ug an t eo da t C te itr oe n F R e ia t na u To l t yo Ge ta H ne o ra n d a l EU M o M to rs an da te Fo rd S Vo u lks zuk wa i g H y en un d N i ai ss an M az Da da Au im B str lerC MW a li h A u a n ry s str Vo ler a li lu n a n ta A v ry e M in
Au Grams per Kilometer
Average Fleet CO2 Emissions
300 Us Now
150 EU Now
100 We need to go here!
Primary Source: European Federation for Transport & Environment
Fuel/Powertrain Choices Petrol
• emits 2.64 kilos CO2 per litre
Diesel • • •
emits 3.0 kilos CO2 per litre but modern engines 30% more efficient so 25% greenhouse savings
LPG • • •
emits 1.82 kilos CO2 per litre much less efficient so 10% max greenhouse savings
Logan – Low Cost & 71g/km
2ndg Biofuel may be part of the Answer
HYBRIDISATION & FUEL EFFICIENT POTENTIAL TYPE
Engine start- stop at idle
Engine off on deceleration Mild regenerative braking Electric power assist
Full regenerative braking Engine cycle optimization & downsize Electric launch Limited pure electric drive
+30-50% Cars +20-40% Trucks
Plug-in rechargeable More electric +100% during charge drive during charge- depletion depletion same Reduced refueling as full hybrid after
Plug-in Range Extender EV
Full-function electric drive Initial pure electric range Significantly reduced refueling
Electric Vehicle Plug-in recharge only 100% pure electric range No refueling
Electricity only in EV same as full hybrid afterward Electricity only
Courtesy Challenge Bibendum Shanghai 2007
Powertrain improvements must be cost-effective – gasoline can close gap with diesel – Hybrid expensive
Drive Cycle CO2 Reduction
Downsized Diesel Diesel
20% 15% 10%
5% 0% 0%
Technologies to reduce CO2 emissions generally increase unit cost Technology combinations must be: – Cost effective – Deliver consumer benefits Most effective technologies with these characteristics: – T/C & downsizing with direct injection Hybrid systems deliver most CO2 benefits but expensive
Powertrain Cost Increase v Current Gasoline Unit Source: Ricardo
Simple Stop-Start Costs $80-$150
Only 119 g/km
Peugeot Diesel Hybrid â€“ 74 g/km
Lots of Diesel Hybrids
It doesnâ€™t have to be boring!
How a Fuel Cell Works
You can Play with the Real Estate
Hydrogen Refueling Station â€“ 700 bar
• Next generation hydrogen fuel cell vehicle
• Home CNG reformer refuelling station
The King Review of Low Carbon Cars â€“ October 2007 Cars that emit 50 per cent less CO2 per kilometre than the equivalent current models could be on the road by 2030, subject to advances in hybrid and battery technologies and industry overcoming cost barriers. Longer term, vehicle technologies to enable a 90 per cent reduction in per kilometre emissions, most likely based on battery-electric propulsion systems, are feasible. Achieving this maximum benefit, however, is dependent on very low-CO2 power generation.
Electric Vehicles Powertrain
• We will all be driving electric cars in the future
• Pure electric will be quick-charged from the mains • Hydrogen fuel-cell hybrids • Other APUs
• Recent battery research has been very promising • Ni-Mh the battery of choice in HEVs & PHEVs for ~5 years • Lithium based batteries will take over when they are safer, cost •
less & have longer operational life It will take ~4 years to market once technology proven
NOTE: The best batteries still have 100 times less energy density than petrol!
Only the Chinese will use Li Batteries …….
EVs Can be Weird
Or Different â€Ś..
Or Both – 150kph, 0-60 – 3.9 sec
Fuel Cell Plug-in Hybrid
GM Volt â€“ Plug-in Hybrid
Or you could take Public Transport!
MAGLEV It was raining so the speed was kept downâ€Ś. Usually it exceeds 400 km/h!
Future Climate Australia
Pressure for change will be ongoing & relentless We each have our part to play What will our Automotive Industry look like in 10 years time?