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Sustainable Mobility The Way Forward Henry O’Clery Executive Director Future Climate Australia Automotive Training Australia 2007 Conference


Future Climate Australia

Not-for-Profit Specialists in Greenhouse Impacts of Transport & Food Chain Reducing Emissions at Source Promoting fuel efficient technologies & low carbon fuels

Providing Offset Services Providing a native biodiversity forest program and Verified Emission Reduction Units (VERs) to reduce carbon concentrations in the atmosphere

Calculator at www.futureclimate.com.au


Climate Change o Climate Change is happening now o Is largely human induced due to burning fossil fuels o Impacts are going to be fundamental and dramatic o For current businesses and for future generations.


Consequences for Australia Change will be progressive:

‰ Sea level rise & more powerful storm surges ‰ Increased Drought & Bushfire ‰ Ecology moving South ‰ More severe & more numerous weather events ‰ Reduction in soil moisture & stream flows ‰ Water becoming a critical commodity ‰ Energy becoming progressively more expensive ‰ Every resource & process has a carbon footprint!


It’s all about Risk! We consider risk every time we take out insurance on our life, house or car, or when we travel on a plane. Scientists rank climate change as very high risk (95% probability), with great penalty attached to delay. Precautionary principle says that we should cover ourselves If we take immediate action we can reduce the impacts, and also set ourselves on course to thrive in a future low carbon world. Australia will soon be introducing a Carbon Trading regimen that will impact on how we do business.

‰ What are the Threats and Opportunities facing us? ‰ How do we move from here to where we need to be?


The Automobile - Three Basics Energy Available

• Petrol/diesel/LPG/CNG/Hydrogen/Synfuel/Biofuel • Battery/Supercapicator • Refuel – Liquid/Gas/Electricity

Powertrain efficiency

• Loses 87% between tank & wheels • Uses 17% of fuel standing still (urban cycle)

Weight

• Do we need 1.8 to 2.5 tonnes to carry 80kg?


Energy Usage There is Scope for Improvement LOSSES DUE TO:

100 80 60

• Drivetrain inefficiency Energy in fuel

• Weight • Rolling Resistance • Aerodynamics

Losses in Drivetrain

• Cross Section • In urban cycle up to 17% fuel used when stationary

40 20 13%

Vehicle Weight

0.6%

0 Energy Available

Available at Wheels

Used to move 80kg


International Energy Agency • •

~870 million cars on the roads worldwide China 20 cars per 1,000; by 2030 will be 140 by: From 40 million cars now to 207 million

• Price of oil will skyrocket as supply cannot meet projected demand by 2015

• To limit temperature increase to 2 degrees we need to stabilise emissions by 2012

• By 2030 we will need cars that use 60% less fuel • $1 spent on fuel efficiency will save the country $2.50 in oil imports

NOTE: IEA is traditionally very conservative in its’ statements!


Meeting Future Energy Demand Energy Efficiency & Reduced Demand Solar Wind Advanced Nuclear Advanced Gas Advanced Coal Conventional Biomass Carbon capture and sequestration

Adapted by Graeme Pearman from Battelle: similar approach used by Princeton University, see Socolow et al. Environment , 46 (2004)


Personal Mobility? • The Segway way ---------


On the other hand ------


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Au Grams per Kilometer

Average Fleet CO2 Emissions

300 Us Now

250

200

150 EU Now

EU 2015

100 We need to go here!

50

0

Primary Source: European Federation for Transport & Environment


Fuel/Powertrain Choices Petrol

• emits 2.64 kilos CO2 per litre

Diesel • • •

emits 3.0 kilos CO2 per litre but modern engines 30% more efficient so 25% greenhouse savings

LPG • • •

emits 1.82 kilos CO2 per litre much less efficient so 10% max greenhouse savings


Logan – Low Cost & 71g/km


2ndg Biofuel may be part of the Answer


HYBRIDISATION & FUEL EFFICIENT POTENTIAL TYPE

FUNCTIONALITY

FUEL ECONOMY

Start/Stop

Engine start- stop at idle

+2-4%

Mild Hybrid

Engine off on deceleration Mild regenerative braking Electric power assist

+10-20%

Full Hybrid

Full regenerative braking Engine cycle optimization & downsize Electric launch Limited pure electric drive

+30-50% Cars +20-40% Trucks

Plug-in Hybrid

Plug-in rechargeable More electric +100% during charge drive during charge- depletion depletion same Reduced refueling as full hybrid after

Plug-in Range Extender EV

Full-function electric drive Initial pure electric range Significantly reduced refueling

Electric Vehicle Plug-in recharge only 100% pure electric range No refueling

Electricity only in EV same as full hybrid afterward Electricity only

Courtesy Challenge Bibendum Shanghai 2007


Powertrain improvements must be cost-effective – gasoline can close gap with diesel – Hybrid expensive

55% 50%

Drive Cycle CO2 Reduction

45% 40%

Hybrid

35% 30%

Downsized Diesel Diesel

25%

20% 15% 10%

Improved Gasoline

5% 0% 0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Technologies to reduce CO2 emissions generally increase unit cost Technology combinations must be: – Cost effective – Deliver consumer benefits Most effective technologies with these characteristics: – T/C & downsizing with direct injection Hybrid systems deliver most CO2 benefits but expensive

300%

Powertrain Cost Increase v Current Gasoline Unit Source: Ricardo


Simple Stop-Start Costs $80-$150


Only 119 g/km


Peugeot Diesel Hybrid – 74 g/km


Lots of Diesel Hybrids


It doesn’t have to be boring!


How a Fuel Cell Works


You can Play with the Real Estate


Hydrogen Refueling Station – 700 bar


Honda FCX

• Next generation hydrogen fuel cell vehicle

• Home CNG reformer refuelling station


The King Review of Low Carbon Cars – October 2007 Cars that emit 50 per cent less CO2 per kilometre than the equivalent current models could be on the road by 2030, subject to advances in hybrid and battery technologies and industry overcoming cost barriers. Longer term, vehicle technologies to enable a 90 per cent reduction in per kilometre emissions, most likely based on battery-electric propulsion systems, are feasible. Achieving this maximum benefit, however, is dependent on very low-CO2 power generation.


Electric Vehicles Powertrain

• We will all be driving electric cars in the future

Energy Inputs

• Pure electric will be quick-charged from the mains • Hydrogen fuel-cell hybrids • Other APUs

Batteries

• Recent battery research has been very promising • Ni-Mh the battery of choice in HEVs & PHEVs for ~5 years • Lithium based batteries will take over when they are safer, cost •

less & have longer operational life It will take ~4 years to market once technology proven

NOTE: The best batteries still have 100 times less energy density than petrol!


Only the Chinese will use Li Batteries …….


EVs Can be Weird


Or Different ‌..


Or Practical


Or Sporty


Or Both – 150kph, 0-60 – 3.9 sec


Fuel Cell Plug-in Hybrid


GM Volt – Plug-in Hybrid


Or you could take Public Transport!


MAGLEV It was raining so the speed was kept down‌. Usually it exceeds 400 km/h!


Future Climate Australia

Pressure for change will be ongoing & relentless We each have our part to play What will our Automotive Industry look like in 10 years time?

Calculator: www.futureclimate.com.au


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