Priorities for the future
Photo: ILRI/Dorine Adhoch
Recent advances in information and communication technologies, improved space-based technologies for monitoring weather and climate, and stronger skills in providing weather forecasts and climate scenarios have greatly enhanced the possibilities to establish
well functional EWS for water in agriculture. There are still, however, major challenges to overcome in most regions of the world. Monitoring of rainfall, soil moisture and other hydro-meteorological parameters provides the basis for the development of water availability scenarios and forecasting of droughts. A combination of field based and remote sensing techniques can be used to provide the information that forms the cornerstone for the assessment of potential upcoming droughts upon which any warnings to the farming and other communities will be based. Changes in climate and its variability are long term processes which also demand long data series. Therefore, it is crucial to continue measuring meteorological parameters and ensure that there are no interruptions in data series. A gap in data cannot be repaired in aftermath, and the cost to maintain data series is small compared to the value of this information when society needs to prepare for climate-induced hazards. In addition, existing approaches to provide early warning on drought must be improved. Due to their complex nature, several indicators are required for drought monitoring and early warnings. Although all types of drought are originally due to a shortage of rain, monitoring only this parameter is insufficient to assess the severity and impacts of a drought (WMO, 2006). Precipitation must be integrated with other climatic parameters. For large parts of the world suffering from droughts, EWS are often inadequate, non-functional or nonexistent. The most critical component for a EWS is its ability to ensure effective communication of information throughout the end-to-end chain. Here, the importance for decision makers on different levels to take action on early warnings is crucial. Decision makers on higher levels must understand the costs and potential consequences to not responding early and committing resources on the basis of forecasts, and they must be informed on the risks posed by waiting for certainty (Hillier and Dempsey, 2012). Early action generally involves taking a modest financial cost, while acting late risks the loss of lives and livelihoods and ultimately spending more money on response. Waiting until the emergency is fully established means that the risks and consequences of inaction are borne by vulnerable people themselves.
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