Russia’s Resur- Impact of gence & How to China’s A2/AD Deal With It Capabilities North America Section PAGE 5
Turmoil in the Arab World PAGE 17
BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
Asia Section PAGE 12
3 Letter From the President
Russia’s Resurgence & How to Deal With It
8 Rise of Turkey & American Foreign Policy
China’s A2/AD Capabilities: Impacts on Regional Deterrence Dynamics 16 Is Corruption Draining the Indian Economy?
Turmoil in the Arab World 19 An Age-Old Problem, Addressed by theTwentyFirst Century 21 Timeline
President: Karia Sekumbo Secretary: Bethlehem Solomon 3XEOLF5HODWLRQV2IÀFHUTianyi Zhang Treasurer: Truong Pharm Editor: Sungtae Park Art Director: Ying Wu Graphic Assistant: Julie Yiu
23 Regional Perspectives 24 Interview with Wellington Nyangoni 27 Interview with Shai Feldman
Assistant Editors: Tanay Paranjape, Jesse Koklas Interviewees: Wellington Nyangoni Shai Feldman
Nicolas Sarkozy: The Reelected President
Africa’s 54th State: The Future of Free Southern Sudan 32 Failures of International Pressure and Intervention Leave Ivory Coast in a State of Anarchy 34 Democratic Republic of Congo. Is There Any Hope?
How to be involved
Supporting: International and Global Stud- ies Department Crown Center for Mid- dle East Studies E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
Note from the President:
t is with the utmost pride and satisfaction that after three months of dedicated work from a group of motivated, passionate, and globally conscious students that we finally present our first issue of the Brandeis International Journal. As a campus that boasts so many different cultures and perspectives from different corners of the world, it was only a matter of time before a journal dedicated to discussing global affairs was introduced to the community. It is my personal belief that in order to foster amicable relations between diverse people around the world, there needs to be an understanding of the different problems that exist in the different regions of the world. A sense of global awareness and consciousness has to be instilled within everyone before talks of peaceful co-existence may even take place. After all, we are all citizens of the world. Brandeis University is a community that has future leaders presently walking around campus as it is. Therefore, it is because of this reason that it is important that we engage each other in the various issues that persist around the world and always look to find solutions to these problems so that, we, as a human race are constantly rectifying on mistakes of the past and improving on the prospects for peace and prosperity for future generations. Even when you are in disagreement with the views shared by your neighbor, bringing the views to the table in the first place is the most important step in arriving at any sort of compromise especially as we do not live in a world that consists of one opinion, but many. It is only through continuous discussion and engagement amongst one another that we are able to arrive at a point of agreement and conciliation. Therefore, it is my request and hope that; as you, the members of the Brandeis community read our first issue of the Brandeis International Journal and future issues, you will use the magazine as an avenue through which you are able to read about various topics around the world and also as an opportunity where you are able to voice your own opinion and engage one another on issues that you may hold dear to you. As citizens of the world, we need to step out of our own comfort zone and begin to look at and acknowledge the rest of the world and work towards bringing about the change, peace, and prosperity that we all desire. Karia Sekumbo ‘14 President of the Brandeis International Journal
BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
North Â America
Resurgence Â of Â Russia Â and Â How Â to Â Deal Â With Â It By Sungtae Park
n Â early Â March, Â American Â Vice Â President Â Joe Â Biden Â made Â a Â visit Â to Â Russia Â during Â which Â Vladimir Â Putin Â famously Â proposed Â abolishing Â visas Â between Â the Â United Â States Â and Â Russia. Â Although Â the Â media Â mainly Â focused Â on Â the Â cooperative Â talks Â and Â silly Â moments Â such Â as Â Putinâ€™s Â tidbit Â about Â doing Â away Â with Â visas, Â the Â main Â reason Â Biden Â went Â to Â Russia Â was Â to Â talk Â about Â the Â strategic Â issues Â that Â the Â two Â countries Â will Â soon Â be Â facing Â after Â the Â American Â disengagement Â from Â Iraq Â and Â Afghanistan. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â The Â United Â States Â and Â Russia Â have Â constantly Â been Â at Â odds Â with Â each Â other Â ever Â since Â the Â internationaliza-Â tion Â of Â American Â foreign Â policy Â after Â World Â War Â II. Â As Â early Â as Â the Â 19th Â century, Â astute Â minds Â such Â as Â Alexis Â de Â Tocqueville Â predicted Â the Â rise Â and Â clash Â of Â the Â two Â countries Â as Â the Â two Â dominant Â world Â powers Â and Â for Â rightful Â reasons. Â One Â only Â needs Â to Â carefully Â examine Â the Â national Â security Â history Â and Â imperatives Â of Â the Â United Â States Â and Â Russia Â to Â see Â why Â their Â clash Â was Â inevitable Â and Â why Â they Â are Â bound Â to Â clash Â yet Â again Â in Â the Â near Â future. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â By Â the Â end Â of Â the Â 19th Â century, Â 4
the Â United Â States Â emerged Â as Â the Â larg-Â est Â economic Â power Â of Â the Â world. Â Its Â security Â was Â guaranteed Â by Â two Â great Â RFHDQVWKH$WODQWLFDQGWKH3DFLÂżF on Â its Â coasts Â and Â two Â weak Â countries, Â Canada Â and Â Mexico, Â on Â its Â northern Â and Â southern Â borders. Â After Â expe-Â riencing Â two Â world Â wars, Â however, Â the Â United Â States Â added Â two Â more Â national Â security Â concepts: Â dominant Â control Â of Â all Â the Â worldâ€™s Â oceans Â and Â nuclear Â weapons. Â Controlling Â the Â sea Â meant Â that Â the Â United Â States Â could Â not Â be Â attacked Â conventionally Â on Â its Â homeland, Â while Â it Â could Â deploy Â its Â powerful Â navy Â anywhere Â in Â the Â world Â to Â threaten Â or Â attack Â any Â other Â con-Â tinent. Â Moreover, Â control Â of Â the Â sea Â gave Â the Â United Â States Â control Â of Â the Â global Â trade, Â economy, Â and Â wealth. Â Countries Â hostile Â to Â the Â United Â States Â faced Â possibilities Â not Â just Â of Â attack Â by Â the Â powerful Â American Â military Â but Â of Â economic Â blockades Â from Â the Â global Â trade Â as Â well. Â Nuclear Â weapons, Â on Â the Â other Â hand, Â prevented Â the Â United Â States Â from Â total Â defeat. Â The Â only Â way Â the Â United Â States Â could Â lose Â was Â through Â mutually-Âassured-Âdestruction Â vis-ÂĂ -Âvis Â the Â Soviet Â Union. Â Therefore, Â the Â United Â States, Â since Â WWII, Â has Â
stuck Â to Â two Â key Â national Â security Â im-Â peratives: Â Preventing Â the Â dominance Â of Â any Â region Â by Â one Â single Â power Â by Â keeping Â the Â balance Â of Â power Â in Â each Â region, Â stable Â preferably Â for Â the Â sake Â of Â global Â economy, Â in Â different Â parts Â of Â the Â world Â and Â preventing Â nuclear Â proliferation, Â all Â the Â while Â keeping Â strategic Â nuclear Â parity Â with Â the Â Soviet Â Union. Â Keeping Â the Â balance Â of Â power Â in Â a Â region Â meant Â that Â no Â major Â power Â could Â invest Â enough Â resources Â to Â build Â a Â navy Â that Â could Â challenge Â the Â Ameri-Â can Â navy Â because Â resources Â needed Â to Â EHIRFXVHGRQÂżJKWLQJODQGZDUVZLWK nearby Â major Â powers. Â Preventing Â nu-Â clear Â proliferation Â reduced Â the Â risk Â of Â any Â nuclear Â power Â that Â could Â eventual-Â ly Â challenge Â American Â nuclear Â forces, Â its Â last-Âresort Â measure. Â Through Â those Â means, Â the Â United Â States Â protected Â its Â political, Â economic, Â and Â physical Â security. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Russiaâ€™s Â national Â security Â im-Â peratives, Â on Â the Â other Â hand, Â have Â his-Â torically Â depended Â on Â carving Â out Â its Â VSKHUHRILQĂ€XHQFHLQ(XUDVLD5XVVLD as Â large Â as Â it Â may Â seem, Â is Â actually Â not Â so Â large Â if Â you Â cross Â off Â Siberia, Â which Â is Â very Â much Â a Â lot Â of Â nothing, Â and Â regions Â with Â hostile Â ethnic Â minorities. Â BRANDEIS Â INTERNATIONAL Â JOURNAL Â Â Â APRIL Â 2011
North Â America
Putin Â believes Â that Â the Â West Â is Â determined Â to Â strangle Â Russia Â and Â reduce Â it Â to Â a Â minor Â player Â in Â the Â region.
BRANDEIS Â INTERNATIONAL Â JOURNAL Â Â Â Â APRIL Â 2011
One Â can Â see Â that Â most Â of Â Russiaâ€™s Â population Â is Â con-Â centrated Â in Â Moscow Â and Â its Â surrounding Â regions. Â Historically, Â the Â main Â security Â issue Â for Â the Â Russians Â was Â that Â the Â Moscow Â region, Â the Â heartland Â of Â Rus-Â sia, Â is Â located Â on Â a Â very Â open, Â vulnerable Â plain Â that Â could Â easily Â be Â invaded Â from Â the Â West, Â South, Â and Â IURPWKH6RXWKHDVW,QIDFWRQHFDQÂżQGWKDW5XV-Â siaâ€™s Â history Â is Â a Â tragic Â one Â of Â destructive Â invasion Â after Â another Â by Â powerful Â foreign Â entities, Â whether Â they Â be Â the Â Mongols, Â the Â Prussians, Â Napoleon, Â or Â the Â Germans Â -Â Â twice. Â Hence, Â the Â Russian Â security Â depended Â on Â extending Â its Â strategic Â depth Â through Â FRQTXHVWDQGGRPLQDWLRQRILWVVSKHUHRILQĂ€XHQFH as Â well Â as Â nuclear Â weapons. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Here, Â one Â can Â see Â why Â American Â and Â Rus-Â sian Â national Â security Â imperatives Â are Â ultimately Â incompatible. Â Americans Â want Â to Â prevent Â a Â domi-Â nant Â regional Â power Â from Â rising;Íž Â Russians Â want Â to Â become Â one. Â Although Â the Â United Â States Â did Â not Â win Â the Â Cold Â War Â through Â military Â attack, Â it Â engaged Â in Â
North Â America
a Â costly Â arms-Ârace Â and Â blocked Â the Â economically Â weak Â Soviet Â Union Â from Â participating Â in Â the Â global Â trade, Â there-Â by Â bringing Â its Â downfall Â from Â within. Â American Â obsession Â with Â preventing Â Russia Â from Â becoming Â the Â dominant Â regional Â power Â continued Â even Â after Â the Â fall Â of Â the Â Soviet Â Union, Â as Â NATO Â expanded Â to Â include Â the Â three Â Baltic Â states Â and Â Poland, Â the Â states Â which Â Russia Â saw Â as Â parts Â of Â their Â sphere Â RILQĂ€XHQFH7KH8QLWHG6WDWHVHYHQ attempted Â to Â include Â Ukraine Â and Â Georgia, Â which Â would Â have Â brought Â NATOâ€™s Â border Â closer Â to Â Moscow Â than Â it Â would Â have Â liked Â to Â see. Â For Â many Â Russians Â and Â leaders Â like Â Vladimir Â Pu-Â tin, Â NATO Â expansion Â into Â the Â Russian Â VSKHUHRILQĂ€XHQFHUHSUHVHQWVIDOVH promises Â and Â back-Âstabbing Â by Â the Â West, Â which Â promised Â cooperation Â and Â aid. Â Putin Â believes Â that Â the Â West Â is Â de-Â termined Â to Â strangle Â Russia Â and Â reduce Â it Â to Â a Â minor Â player Â in Â the Â region.
their Â interest Â in Â their Â sphere, Â as Â long Â as Â the Â United Â States Â is Â still Â occupied Â with Â Iran, Â Iraq, Â and Â Afghanistan, Â and Â that Â the Â Russian Â military Â is Â not Â as Â weak Â as Â it Â is Â believed Â to Â be. Â People Â continue Â to Â underestimate Â the Â strength Â of Â the Â Rus-Â sian Â military, Â however, Â as Â they Â tend Â to Â link Â Russiaâ€™s Â economy Â with Â Russian Â military Â power. Â By Â studying Â Russian Â KLVWRU\QHYHUWKHOHVVRQHFDQÂżQGWKDW its Â political Â and Â military Â power Â never Â depended Â on Â its Â economy Â because Â the Â Russian Â economy Â has Â always Â been Â weak. Â Russia Â has Â always Â been Â able Â WRPXVWHUVLJQLÂżFDQWPLOLWDU\DQG SROLWLFDOSRZHUE\XVLQJLWVLURQÂżVW authoritarian Â system Â at Â the Â expense Â of Â the Â general Â welfare Â of Â its Â people. Â Putin Â does Â not Â intend Â to Â create Â the Â 5XVVLDQVSKHUHRILQĂ€XHQFHWKURXJK conquest. Â One Â lesson Â he Â learned Â from Â the Â fall Â of Â the Â Soviet Â Union Â was Â that Â direct Â control Â is Â often Â too Â costly Â and Â unsustainable. Â He Â does, Â however, Â plan Â to Â use Â military, Â political, Â and Â economic Â power Â of Â Russia Â to Â render Â the Â states Â on Â its Â periphery Â submissive Â towards Â Russia.
establishing Â the Â missile Â defense Â sys-Â tem Â with Â American Â military Â personnel Â in Â Poland Â is Â that Â it Â is Â a Â symbolic Â ges-Â ture Â of Â American Â security Â commitment Â of Â Eastern Â Europe Â against Â Russia. Â Thus, Â the Â world Â is Â already Â beginning Â to Â witness Â the Â clash Â between Â resurgent Â Russia Â and Â the Â United Â States Â that Â is Â trying Â to Â contain Â it Â yet Â again.
RPLQJFRQĂ€LFWEHWZHHQ5XVVLD and Â the Â United Â States Â seems Â inevitable, Â although Â it Â prob-Â ably Â will Â not Â be Â one Â of Â direct Â military Â confrontation, Â as Â the Â two Â countries Â still Â both Â possess Â very Â large Â stockpiles Â of Â nuclear Â weapons. Â As Â with Â the Â Cold Â War, Â the Â United Â States Â must Â pursue Â a Â policy Â of Â containment Â vis-ÂĂ -Âvis Â Russia. Â During Â the Â Cold Â War, Â it Â was Â NATO, Â composed Â of Â Western Â Europe, Â which Â acted Â as Â a Â wall Â against Â the Â So-Â viet Â Unionâ€™s Â eastern Â sphere. Â This Â time Â around, Â however, Â Western Â Europe Â does Â not Â feel Â the Â immediate Â danger Â that Â the Â Soviet Â encroachment Â presented Â ver Â since Â he Â became Â the Â leader Â before. Â Instead, Â it Â is Â Eastern Â Europe, Â of Â Russia, Â Putin Â has Â been Â deter-Â consisting Â of Â former-ÂSoviet Â states Â mined Â to Â reverse Â Boris Â Yeltsinâ€™s Â not Â wishing Â to Â come Â under Â the Â Rus-Â open Â policy Â and Â recreate Â the Â Russian Â s Â the Â United Â States Â eventually Â VLDQLQĂ€XHQFHDJDLQWKDWWKH8QLWHG VSKHUHRILQĂ€XHQFHWKHPDLQSUREOHP withdraws Â and Â lays Â its Â eyes Â States Â must Â form Â a Â defense Â block Â being Â the Â potential Â interference Â by Â off Â Iran, Â Iraq, Â and Â Afghani-Â with, Â along Â with Â other Â concerned Â the Â United Â States. Â The Â perfect Â chance Â stan, Â it Â will Â return Â to Â pursuing Â its Â states Â such Â as Â Turkey Â and Â Georgia. Â came, Â however, Â when Â the Â United Â geopolitical Â imperative, Â which Â is Â to Â Because Â of Â the Â economic Â constraints Â States Â became Â bogged Â down Â in Â two Â prevent Â the Â rise Â of Â a Â regional Â hegemon, Â coupled Â with Â ethnic Â troubles Â and Â the Â wars Â in Â Iraq Â and Â Afghanistan Â and Â now Â DQGRQHFDQSUHGLFWPRUHFRQĂ€LFWVWR demographic Â problem Â of Â declining Â is Â occupied Â with Â Iran. Â In Â fact Â Russiaâ€™s Â arise Â between Â the Â United Â States Â and Â population Â it Â is Â facing, Â Russia Â should Â refusal Â to Â cooperate Â fully Â on Â sanc-Â Russia. Â A Â key Â issue Â that Â was Â raised Â be Â easy Â to Â contain, Â much Â easier Â than Â tions Â on Â Iran Â and Â willingness Â to Â give Â during Â Bidenâ€™s Â visit Â was Â the Â issue Â of Â containing Â the Â Soviet Â Union. Â An Â al-Â technological Â assistance Â to Â the Â rogue Â the Â missile Â defense Â system Â and Â de-Â ternative Â solution Â would Â be Â to Â get Â the Â stateâ€™s Â nuclear Â program Â are Â both Â meant Â ployment Â of Â American Â air Â force Â units Â Russians Â to Â accept Â a Â status-Âquo Â with Â to Â keep Â American Â attention Â on Â Iran Â as Â in Â Poland. Â The Â United Â States Â claims Â American Â missile Â defense Â and Â mili-Â long Â as Â possible. Â Meanwhile, Â Putin Â has Â that Â the Â system Â is Â aimed Â at Â preventing Â tary Â commitments Â in Â Poland Â and Â with Â been Â utilizing Â Russiaâ€™s Â abundance Â in Â rogue Â states Â such Â as Â Iran Â from Â attack-Â Ukraine, Â Georgia, Â and Â the Â three Â Baltic Â natural Â resources, Â especially Â natural Â ing Â Europe Â with Â short Â to Â intermedi-Â states Â remaining Â neutral Â or Â under Â the Â gas, Â to Â boost Â its Â economy Â as Â well Â to Â ate Â range Â missiles, Â not Â Russia. Â Yet Â it Â 5XVVLDQLQĂ€XHQFHÂąDKLJKO\XQOLNHO\ apply Â pressure Â Eastern Â and Â Central Â refuses Â to Â let Â Russia Â control Â it Â jointly. Â compromise Â that Â neither Â side Â would Â Europe Â that Â are Â dependent Â on Â Russian Â One Â must Â remember, Â however, Â that Â accept. Â Geopolitics, Â to Â a Â great Â extent Â natural Â gas Â pipelines. Â Russian Â military Â the Â current Â missile Â defense Â system Â is Â is Â determined. Â The Â role Â of Â a Â statesman Â LVDOVRRQWKHZD\WRVLJQLÂżFDQWUHFRY-Â nowhere Â close Â to Â being Â able Â to Â defend Â is Â to Â let Â the Â destiny Â be Â the Â guide Â and Â ery, Â if Â not Â as Â powerful Â as Â the Â military Â against Â Russiaâ€™s Â large Â arsenal Â of Â short Â JRZLWKWKHĂ€RZRIKLVWRU\)RUWX-Â of Â the Â Soviet Â Union. Â The Â Russian Â inva-Â and Â intermediate Â range Â missiles. Â Then, Â nately, Â the Â United Â States Â is Â destined Â sion Â of Â Georgia Â in Â 2008 Â was Â a Â clear Â why Â is Â Russia Â fussing Â so Â much Â about Â WRSUHYDLOLQWKHFRPLQJFRQĂ€LFWZLWK statement Â made Â by Â Putin Â and Â Medve-Â it, Â and Â why Â is Â the Â United Â States Â not Â let-Â Russia, Â and Â American Â statesmen Â must Â dev, Â who Â made Â clear Â that Â they Â are Â pre-Â ting Â Russia Â control Â it Â jointly, Â if Â it Â is Â not Â ease Â that Â hand Â of Â destiny Â by Â going Â pared Â to Â use Â military Â force Â to Â protect Â aimed Â at Â Russia? Â The Â real Â reason Â for Â along Â with Â it.
BRANDEIS Â INTERNATIONAL Â JOURNAL Â Â Â APRIL Â 2011
Rise of Turkey & American Foreign Policy By Sungtae Park
he world’s attention is currently focused on the internal political unrest in the Middle East, even more than Iran’s nuclear program. Turkey, on the other hand, never seems to make it to the headlines of today’s media. Many people do not even consider Turkey to be part of the Middle East. Yet, by examining the country, it is hard not to recognize its regional dominance as well as its potential significance with regard to the American policy in the region. There are many ways to measure power. One could measure power in terms of military and economic influence, as well as soft power appeals. Looking at Turkey, it is easily the largest economy in the Middle East, the 17th largest in the world, and still growing at a rapid pace. Militarily, it has a much larger military expenditure than Israel, has a massive, well-trained army, armed with modern equipment, BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
has extensive combat experience fighting Kurdish militias, and is the only major naval power of the Middle East. The Turkish army constitutes the most powerful ground forces in the Middle East and probably even among the European armies as well, not counting Russia. Politically, it is a democracy, although imperfect, and has a fairly stable government backed by powerful and secular military. In terms of soft power, it is perhaps the only power in the region that has wide-appeal among other regional states, even with Iran and Israel, although the flotilla incident did mean a downturn. At the same time, Turkey is also culturally tied to Europe and is seen by the West as a Middle Eastern model of secularism and modernization. Turkey has historically been a major power. One could just point to the example of the Ottoman Empire, which at its height controlled the
entire Middle East (with the exception of Iran), parts of Central Asia, the Balkans, and Northern Africa. After World War I, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk self-contained the once-great-power in its homeland in the Anatolian peninsula in order to thoroughly modernize and to democratize. Throughout the Cold War, until the end of the Cold War, and even until the Iraq War in 2003, Turkey pursued its foreign policy largely in line with the United States and NATO. Iraq War of 2003, however, was a bit of a wake-up call for Turkey to pursue its own and more forceful foreign policy again. Turkey was vigorously opposed to the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 because it feared that the Iraqi Kurdish elements, which the Americans supported against Saddam Hussein, would be let loose and would destabilize Turkey with its own rebellious Kurdish population. Moreover, 2
Turkey was not interested in seeing the balance of power between Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia destroyed, as a single power dominating the Gulf region would not be in Turkish interest. Nonetheless, the United States during the Bush administration ignored dissent from Turkey and many other 8
countries and went through with the invasion. At that point, Turkey realized that it could not count on the United States to look out for its interests and that it needs to look out for its own interest. At the current stage, Turkey is already the most powerful Middle
Eastern power, whether it is ready to accept it or not. With eventual disengagement of the United States from the Middle East and with readiness to pursue its own independent foreign policy, Turkey will definitely be playing the dominant role in the region as the most powerful economic, military, and BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
Turkey is already the most powerful Middle Eastern power, wheth- er it is ready to accept it or not.
political player. This is a fact that is being realized among the Turkish people as well, as one can hear talks of neo-Ottomanism going around in the country, although the country is not exactly sure how and where to direct its new and growing power. As of now, Turkey has adopted a makeBRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
no-enemy foreign policy. Nevertheless, as with any great power, being friendly with everyone is impossible, as countries with conflicting interest will want to forge relations, a great example being the United States and Iran both wanting stronger relations with Turkey. At some point in the near future, Turkey will have to make some important decisions about which powers it will align with and which powers it will align against. The other major power contender, Iran, although it may claim influence in the Gulf region after the American withdrawal, will have fairly limited influence across the rest of the Middle East due to its limitations on available resources, and any attempt to extend its influence will surely be checked by Turkey. Moreover, the Iranians, recognizing their relative weakness vis-à-vis Turkey, are very careful to not antagonize Ankara, which could potentially be forced to be involved actively in the region much sooner than it would like to be. In this respect, Turkey and the United States could attempt to align their interests in the region again.
ith respect to Iran, neither the United States nor Turkey is interested in seeing the Iranian domination of the Gulf. Yet, the United States is set to withdraw from the region. Instead of the United States, Turkey could exert
political pressure against potential Iranian domination of Iraq and the GCC states. The fact that Turkey does not have hostile relations Iran would greatly help. Although not a member of the P5+1, Turkey could also play a more active part in negotiating to rid Iran of its nuclear developments. Regarding the Arab-Israeli relations, Turkey, as a country that can appeal to both the Arabs and the West, could be seen as a fairer mediator between the two sides, unlike the United States, which does not have mass appeal in the region. The most crucial area in which the United States and Turkey could cooperate on is perhaps on putting a lid on the Russian dream of recreating its sphere of influence, which Vladimir Putin has been working on for the past ten years and will continue to do so even more aggressively in the future. Turkey is perfectly aware that, since the aftermath of World War II, its strategic position vis-à-vis Russia has depended on its relationship with NATO and another powerful outside power, the United States. With resurgent Russia on the horizon, American and Turkish interests should perfectly align in this area. The Middle East is shaking because of internal unrest but Turkey is still thriving. For the United States, Turkey may be the ideal country to work with in stabilizing the region as well as countering the Russian influence. 9
Nicolas Sarkozy: Â The Â Reelected Â President By Dan Lahmi
recent Â poll Â released Â by Â the Â French Â daily Â newspaper Â Le Â Parisien Â showed Â that Â if Â the Â presidential Â elections Â were Â held Â today, Â the Â current Â French Â president, Â Nicolas Â Sarkozy Â would Â receive Â 21% Â of Â the Â votes Â while Â his Â potentially Â main Â opponent Â Dominique Â Strauss Â Kahn-Â Â a Â socialist Â candidate Â and Â current Â president Â of Â the Â IMF-Â Â would Â have Â 23% Â and Â Marine Â Le Â Pen, Â the Â leader Â of Â the Â extreme Â right Â party Â called Â the Â Front Â National-Â Â a Â political Â party Â considered Â fascist Â by Â many Â journalists Â and Â politi-Â cians-Â Â would Â have Â 24% Â of Â the Â votes. Â In Â other Â words, Â if Â France Â could Â vote Â today, Â according Â to Â the Â poll, Â Sarkozy Â might Â not Â even Â qualify Â himself Â for Â the Â second Â round. Â Moreover, Â many Â people Â among Â his Â own Â political Â party, Â UMP, Â argue Â that Â he Â is Â not Â the Â best Â candidate Â anymore Â to Â represent Â right Â wing Â ideas. Â However, Â beside Â the Â current Â political Â atmosphere Â being Â against Â Sarkozy, Â he Â still Â has Â a Â high Â probability Â to Â win Â the Â presidential Â elections. Â Â Â Â Â Sarkozy Â appears Â as Â the Â most Â cred-Â ible Â candidate Â of Â the Â election Â on Â the Â right Â wing. Â For Â instance, Â beside Â the Â fact Â that Â he Â knows Â how Â to Â govern Â a Â country, Â he Â has Â defended Â many Â
unpopular Â reforms Â that Â he Â considered Â necessary Â for Â France. Â He Â postponed Â the Â retirement Â age Â from Â 60 Â years Â old Â to Â 62 Â and Â afterward Â his Â popularity Â decreased. Â However, Â even Â though Â the Â reform Â substantially Â decreased Â Sarkozyâ€™s Â popularity, Â it Â showed Â his Â determination Â to Â deal Â with Â important Â issues Â whatever Â political Â costs Â he Â may Â pay;Íž Â this Â image Â will Â certainly Â help Â him Â during Â the Â campaign. Â For Â instance, Â due Â to Â some Â punctual Â reasons, Â such Â DVÂżQDQFLDOFULVLVDQGWKHHXURFULVLV coupled Â with Â structural Â reasons, Â as Â the Â )UHQFKGHÂżFLWIRUH[DPSOHUHDVRQDEOH candidates Â will Â have Â nothing Â to Â offer Â but Â â€œblood Â toil Â tears Â and Â sweatâ€? Â and Â an Â important Â part Â of Â the Â French Â popu-Â lation Â will Â see Â in Â Sarkozy Â the Â only Â person Â who Â would Â have Â the Â courage Â to Â implement Â this Â program Â on Â a Â national Â scale Â since Â he Â had Â already Â fought Â for Â unpopular Â reforms. Â Therefore, Â his Â credibility Â to Â cope Â with Â delicate Â issues Â will Â have Â a Â positive Â impact Â for Â him Â when Â people Â will Â have Â to Â choose Â a Â candidate. Â Furthermore, Â his Â recent Â PLQLVWHULDOUHVKXIĂ€HZLOOLPSRVHKLP-Â self Â as Â a Â solid Â candidate. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Sarkozyâ€™s Â designation Â of Â two Â undeniably Â competent Â ministers, Â Alain Â
JuppĂŠ Â and Â Claude Â GuĂŠant, Â in Â a Â strate-Â gic Â ministries-Â Â the Â ministry Â of Â foreign Â affairs Â and Â the Â ministry Â of Â domestic Â af-Â fairs Â respectively-Â Â will Â boost Â Sarkozyâ€™s Â popularity Â in Â the Â polls Â few Â months Â before Â the Â elections. Â Â Alain Â JuppĂŠ Â and Â Claude Â GuĂŠant, Â will Â certainly Â give Â him Â an Â advantage Â during Â the Â campaign. Â Both Â ministers Â are Â widely Â accepted Â as Â KLJKO\HIÂżFLHQWE\DOOWKHSROLWLFDODQD-Â lysts Â and Â are Â both Â going Â to Â lead Â a Â very Â strategic Â ministry. Â In Â fact, Â because Â of Â Sarkozyâ€™s Â decision Â to Â check Â the Â rise Â of Â the Â Front Â National Â by Â organizing Â a Â de-Â bate Â about Â the Â theme Â of Â public Â safety Â as Â well Â as Â about Â the Â place Â of Â Islam Â in Â France, Â drop Â in Â the Â numbers Â of Â crimes Â and Â aggressions Â proved Â to Â be Â crucial Â if Â Sarkozy Â wants Â to Â win. Â Hopefully Â for Â the Â French Â president, Â Gueantâ€™s Â nomi-Â nation Â will Â certainly Â sensibly Â affect Â the Â diminution Â of Â crimes Â and Â aggres-Â sions. Â Â Moreover, Â due Â to Â the Â â€œspring Â revolutionsâ€? Â in Â many Â Arab Â countries Â and Â because Â of Â the Â close Â historic Â ties Â between Â France Â and Â North Â African Â countries, Â France Â attitude Â toward Â its Â North Â African Â neighbors Â will Â still Â be Â on Â the Â French Â foreign Â policyâ€™s Â agenda Â and Â will Â still Â captured Â the Â attention Â of Â the Â public Â opinion. Â Sarkozy Â will Â be Â
BRANDEIS Â INTERNATIONAL Â JOURNAL Â Â Â APRIL Â 2011
able Â to Â rely Â on Â Juppe Â for Â good Â diplomatic Â results. Â Subsequently Â Sarkozyâ€™s Â diplomatic Â successes Â and Â solid Â improvement Â of Â the Â peopleâ€™s Â security Â in Â France Â will Â place Â him Â as Â a Â serious Â contender Â for Â the Â elections. Â Â In Â addi-Â tion Â Sarkozy Â can Â still Â believe Â in Â his Â reelection Â because Â he Â will Â certainly Â be Â the Â only Â candi-Â date Â of Â the Â right Â as Â well Â as Â for Â the Â following Â reasons. Â Â Â he Â candidate Â de Â Villepin Â will Â not Â run Â and Â his Â voters Â will Â vote Â for Â Sarkozy. Â The Â poll Â published Â by Â Le Â Parisien Â indicated Â that Â if Â Dominique Â Strauss Â Kahn Â GRHVQRWUXQ6DUNR]\ZRXOGEHTXDOLÂżHGIRU the Â second Â round, Â just Â behind Â Marine Â Le Â Pen, Â and Â if Â Strauss Â Kahn Â runs Â Sarkozy Â would Â not Â EHTXDOLÂżHGDWDOOIRUWKHVHFRQGURXQG$O-Â though Â this Â poll Â reinforces Â the Â idea Â that Â Sar-Â kozy Â will Â not Â be Â reelected, Â it Â paradoxically Â consolidate Â his Â chance Â to Â win Â the Â elections. Â For Â instance Â the Â poll Â included Â the Â candidature Â of Â Dominique Â de Â Villepin-Â Â a Â former Â member Â of Â the Â UMP Â who Â became Â a Â dissident Â of Â the Â party Â and Â created Â his Â own Â party-Â Â and Â assessed Â that Â 7% Â of Â the Â voters Â would Â vote Â for Â him Â if Â the Â elections Â were Â held Â today. Â However, Â be-Â cause Â of Â the Â great Â chance Â that Â Marine Â Le Â Pen Â accedes Â to Â the Â second Â round Â while Â Sarkozy Â might Â not Â even Â accede Â to Â it, Â de Â Villepin Â will Â not Â run. Â In Â fact, Â the Â latter Â knows Â that Â he Â does Â not Â have Â any Â chances Â to Â win Â the Â elections Â and Â would Â rather Â prefer Â as Â President Â of Â France Â someone Â who Â supports Â right Â wing Â idea Â rather Â than Â a Â proponent Â of Â left-Âwing Â ideas Â or Â extreme Â right Â wing Â ideas. Â Consequently, Â de Â Villepinâ€™s Â voters Â would Â switch Â to Â Sarkozy Â and Â he Â would Â gain Â approximatively Â 7% Â of Â more Â votes, Â which Â would Â position Â him Â as Â a Â potential Â winner Â of Â the Â election. Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â To Â conclue, Â Sarkozy Â can Â and Â should Â still Â believe Â in Â his Â reelection Â because Â of Â his Â unique Â image Â of Â a Â courageous Â reformer Â because Â of Â the Â expected Â good Â result Â in Â ministries Â that Â will Â count Â during Â the Â election Â and Â because Â of Â his Â probable Â monopoly Â as Â the Â only Â candidate Â representing Â the Â right Â wing. Â Furthermore, Â in Â politics Â time Â tends Â to Â run Â slowly, Â the Â Presidential Â elections Â will Â happen Â in Â 14 Â months Â or Â in Â other Â world Â in Â an Â eternity Â for Â a Â politician. Â In Â few Â days Â everything Â can Â change Â and Â usually Â in Â French Â politics Â it Â does;Íž Â all Â French Â presidents Â who Â have Â been Â elected Â XQGHUWKHÂżIWK5HSXEOLFZHUHQRWJLYHQZLQ-Â ner Â by Â any Â poll Â a Â year Â before Â the Â election. Â Why Â would Â it Â change Â today? Â
BRANDEIS Â INTERNATIONAL Â JOURNAL Â Â Â Â APRIL Â 2011
In Â a Â few Â days Â every-Â thing Â can Â change Â and Â usually Â in Â French Â poli-Â tics Â it Â does.
Nicolas Â Sarkozy .
Chinaâ€™s A2/AD Capabilities:
Impact Â on Â Regional Â Deterrence Â Dynamics By Jieming Chu
n Â December Â 26th, Â 2010, Â in Â an Â interview Â with Â China Â Signpost, Â Admiral Â Willard Â of Â WKH863DFLÂżF&RPPDQGVDLGWKDW Chinaâ€™s Â DF-Â21D Â Anti-ÂShip Â Ballistic Â Missile Â (ASBM) Â had Â reached Â its Â Initial Â Operational Â Capability Â (IOC). Â Achieving Â the Â IOC Â for Â the Â ASBM Â is Â VLJQLÂżFDQWEHFDXVHLWLVDPLOHVWRQH in Â Chinaâ€™s Â development Â of Â â€œanti-Â access Â area Â denialâ€? Â (A2/AD) Â systems. Â Chinaâ€™s Â determination Â in Â acquiring Â these Â capabilities Â necessitates Â care-Â ful Â analysis Â of Â Chinaâ€™s Â underlying Â motivations Â as Â well Â as Â the Â intended Â or Â unintended Â geopolitical Â impacts Â of Â these Â capabilities. Â Â Â Â The Â major Â motivation Â for Â the Â development Â of Â these Â systems Â is Â Chinaâ€™s Â grave Â concern Â over Â Taiwanâ€™s Â potential Â de Â jure Â independence. Â Taiwan Â has Â huge Â social Â and Â geopoliti-Â FDOVLJQLÂżFDQFHLQWKHH\HVRI%HLMLQJ
and Â is Â one Â of Â the Â â€œcore Â interestsâ€? Â of Â China. Â Taiwan Â currently Â is Â a Â prosper-Â ing Â democracy Â in Â East Â Asia Â and Â an Â important Â component Â of Â the Â First Â Island Â Chain. Â People Â in Â China, Â as Â time Â passes, Â often Â look Â up Â to Â Taiwanâ€™s Â economic Â prosperity Â and Â the Â degrees Â of Â individual Â freedom Â Taiwanese Â enjoy. Â The Â deep Â contrast Â between Â a Â democratic Â Taiwan Â and Â an Â oppressive Â China Â raises Â a Â serious Â and Â dangerous Â legitimacy Â crisis Â to Â the Â ruling Â Chinese Â Communist Â Party. Â A Â prospering Â Han-Â democracy Â at Â Chinaâ€™s Â door-Âstep Â is Â thus Â a Â de-Âstabilizing Â factor Â to Â Chinaâ€™s Â domestic Â politics. Â Â Â Â Â Beijing Â is Â also Â concerned Â about Â Taiwanâ€™s Â unique Â identity Â as Â a Â key Â component Â of Â the Â First Â Island Â Chain. Â Historically, Â during Â the Â Cold Â War, Â the Â First Â Island Â Chain Â became Â the Â frontline Â for Â the Â United Â States Â and Â its Â allies Â to Â contain Â Soviet Â imperialism Â
LQWKH3DFLÂżF7KHDWHU1RZLQDSRVW Cold Â War Â world, Â Beijing Â put Â itself Â in Â the Â vacant Â position Â left Â by Â the Â former Â Soviet Â Union Â as Â the Â key Â competitor Â of Â the Â U.S. Â in Â the Â 21st Â century. Â China, Â therefore, Â is Â deeply Â concerned Â with Â the Â U.S. Â military Â presence Â in Â East Â Asia Â and Â suspects Â itself Â to Â be Â the Â tar-Â get Â of Â a Â new Â containment. Â Although Â the Â control Â of Â the Â island Â of Â Taiwan Â GRHVQRWVLJQLÂżFDQWO\ERRVW$PHULFDÂśV military Â projection Â capabilities Â given Â the Â quality Â and Â quantity Â of Â Americaâ€™s Â military Â projection Â platforms, Â it Â certainly Â will Â boost Â such Â capabili-Â ties Â of Â any Â other Â regional Â power Â who Â controls Â Taiwan. Â Chinaâ€™s Â growing Â economy Â has Â become Â increasingly Â de-Â pendent Â on Â the Â import Â of Â oil Â and Â other Â strategic Â materials Â through Â maritime Â trade Â routes. Â The Â security Â of Â Chinaâ€™s Â trade Â routes Â is Â thus Â directly Â linked Â to Â the Â ability Â of Â China Â to Â maintain Â
BRANDEIS Â INTERNATIONAL Â JOURNAL Â Â Â APRIL Â 2011
PLAN vessel ranges illustrate maximum time on station (unreplenished) at state range
an 8% annual GDP growth. The >8% GDP growth, together with national- ism, are the major current sources of legitimacy for the Chinese Communist Party. Therefore, China’s acquisition of Taiwan would allow China to break through the First Island Chain and ensure that China does not become the next victim of economic strangulation under a new American containment. In 1996, prior to Taiwan’s presiden- tial election, China launched mis- siles and held massive military drills near Taiwan to warn the Taiwanese electorate not to vote for the pro-inde- pendence candidate Lee Teng-hui. At that time, tensions directed across the Strait reached an all-time high and the U.S. president Bill Clinton sent in two aircraft carrier battle groups into the Taiwan Strait and neutralized China’s threat. During this crisis, both China and the U.S. sent each other a strong BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
message. The Chinese leadership reaf- ¿UPHGLWVUHVROXWLRQWRWDNH7DLZDQ by force should Taiwan seek de jure independence. The United States, on the other hand, demonstrated its credibility to its Asian allies and its determination to come to Taiwan’s aid under the provisions of the Taiwan Relations Act.
n fact, China backed down in this crisis facing the strong coercive force posed by the two American aircraft carriers. Beijing’s show of force even eventually brought it with counter-productive outcomes as Lee Teng-hui enjoyed a 5% boost in public support and won the election with a majority. This crisis led Beijing to speed up its military modernization process and construct strategies that could guarantee victory vis-à-vis a U.S.-backed Taiwan in a conventional
war. This winning strategy that Beijing proposed is A2/AD. China’s A2/AD strategy employs a wide range of conventional military systems including high-tech sub- marines, state-of-the-art air defense systems, advanced aircrafts, over-the- horizon radars, spy satellites as well as the ASBMs. The combination of these systems is expected to effectively de- ter, delay, or destroy incoming Ameri- can military interventions in a possible Sino-Taiwanese war. In essence, the A2/AD capabilities will allow China to exploit its asymmetrical advantages to win a limited conventional war against the much more superior U.S. air and naval forces in the Taiwan Theater. China understands that America’s defense commitments to Taiwan are not bound by any treaties but are only vaguely described in the Taiwan 13
Chinaâ€™s Â determination Â in Â acquiring Â these Â capabilities Â necessitates Â care-Â ful Â analysis Â of Â Chinaâ€™s Â underlying Â motivations Â as Â well Â as Â the Â intended Â or Â unintended Â geopolitical Â impacts Â of Â these Â capabilities.
Relations Â Act. Â Â The Â ambiguity Â of Â the Â wording Â of Â the Â Taiwan Â Relations Â Act Â allows Â the Â U.S. Â to Â come Â to Â Taiwanâ€™s Â aid Â under Â circumstances Â and Â in Â ways Â LWVHHVÂżW7KLVDPELJXLW\DOORZVĂ€H[-Â ibility Â of Â American Â military Â response Â but Â it Â also Â has Â its Â weaknesses. Â China, Â with Â proper Â means, Â can Â manipulate Â and Â exploit Â this Â particular Â ambigu-Â ity. Â Whether Â a Â bluff Â or Â not, Â Chinaâ€™s Â A2/AD Â capabilities Â would Â play Â into Â Americaâ€™s Â consideration Â of Â interven-Â tion. Â The Â ever Â growing Â economic Â tie Â between Â China Â and Â the Â United Â States Â eliminates Â incentives Â for Â direct Â military Â confrontation Â of Â these Â two Â states. Â Now, Â realizing Â Chinaâ€™s Â possible Â DELOLW\WRLQĂ€LFWKHDY\FDVXDOWLHVRQ traditional Â American Â military Â projec-Â tion Â platforms, Â Americaâ€™s Â administra-Â tion Â would Â be Â more Â reluctant Â to Â risk Â suffering Â heavy Â economic Â and Â military Â losses Â in Â asymmetrical Â warfare Â at Â the Â time Â and Â place Â of Â Chinaâ€™s Â choosing. Â If Â the Â deterrence Â fails Â and Â the Â Ameri-Â can Â leadership Â decides Â to Â stand Â up Â to Â Chinaâ€™s Â threat Â and Â come Â to Â Taiwanâ€™s Â aid, Â Beijingâ€™s Â hope Â would Â be Â that Â the Â A2/AD Â systems Â would Â cause Â enough Â damage Â and Â disruption Â to Â Americaâ€™s Â deployment Â of Â military Â assets Â into Â the Â theater Â of Â war Â so Â that Â de Â facto Â Chinese Â control Â over Â Taiwan Â could Â be Â HVWDEOLVKHGDQGWKHFDXVHRIUHXQLÂżFD-Â tion Â irreversible. Â In Â this Â situation, Â the Â international Â community Â would Â most Â possibly Â be Â coerced Â to Â accept Â the Â Chi-Â 14
nese Â occupation Â of Â Taiwan. Â
ne Â fact Â that Â is Â often Â over-Â looked Â is Â the Â third Â possible Â situation Â in Â which Â the Â United Â States Â decides Â to Â intervene Â regard-Â OHVVRIWKHFRVWZKHQLWÂżQGVWKDWLW has Â too Â high Â a Â stake Â in Â the Â de Â facto Â independence Â of Â Taiwan Â and Â too Â much Â credibility Â to Â lose Â if Â it Â fails Â to Â uphold Â its Â commitments Â to Â its Â ally. Â In Â this Â case, Â the Â Chinese Â leadership, Â under Â strong Â domestic Â pressures Â of Â national-Â ism, Â would Â be Â unlikely Â to Â back Â down Â from Â a Â military Â offensive Â against Â Taiwan. Â Therefore, Â it Â is Â reasonable Â to Â assume Â that Â China Â also Â has Â a Â plan Â to Â use Â the Â A2/AD Â systems Â to Â destroy Â U.S Â military Â assets Â in Â the Â Taiwan Â Theater Â LILWÂżQGVLWVHOISDVWWKHSRLQWRIQR return. Â Hence, Â China Â would Â continue Â to Â develop Â its Â A2/AD Â capabilities Â to Â prepare Â for Â this Â worst Â situation Â and Â to Â serve Â as Â a Â credible Â deterrence. Â
hinaâ€™s Â wishful Â thinking, Â its Â ag-Â gressive Â postures Â in Â the Â year Â of Â 2010 Â and Â its Â growing Â military Â superiority Â in Â East Â Asia, Â however, Â have Â brought Â immediate Â unintended Â geopolitical Â consequences Â in Â East Â Asia. Â Regional Â powers Â have Â sensed Â Chinaâ€™s Â growing Â A2/AD Â capabili-Â ties Â and Â viewed Â China Â as Â a Â threat Â to Â traditional Â balance Â of Â power Â in Â East Â Asia. Â Japan, Â in Â particular, Â felt Â the Â need Â to Â address Â Chinaâ€™s Â threat Â to Â Japanâ€™s Â
vital Â national Â interests Â in Â the Â resource-Â abundant Â East Â China Â Sea. Â Japanâ€™s Â new Â defense Â strategy Â in Â 2010, Â therefore, Â calls Â for Â a Â shift Â in Â Japanâ€™s Â defense Â posture Â and Â a Â greater Â integration Â of Â Japanese Â military Â with Â the Â United Â States Â military. Â The Â Association Â of Â Southeast Â Asian Â Nations Â (ASEAN) Â has Â also Â moved Â closer Â to Â the Â United Â States Â to Â curb Â Chinese Â threats. Â Apparently, Â Chinaâ€™s Â growing Â military Â capabilities, Â especially Â its Â potential Â ability Â to Â keep Â WKH86RXWRI&KLQDÂśVVSKHUHRILQĂ€X-Â ence Â in Â the Â future, Â has Â triggered Â wide-Â spread Â regional Â security Â concerns Â and Â only Â invited Â a Â more Â prominent Â U.S. Â PLOLWDU\SUHVHQFHLQWKH:HVWHUQ3DFLÂżF Â Â Â Â Maintaining Â the Â geopolitical Â bal-Â ance Â of Â power Â in Â East Â Asia Â is Â therefore Â fundamental Â to Â regional Â stability Â and Â the Â United Â States Â has Â to Â take Â lead Â in Â accomplishing Â this Â task. Â Good Â news Â is Â that, Â amid Â concerns, Â Admiral Â Willard Â VWLOOUHPDLQVÂżUPO\RSWLPLVWLFDERXW Americaâ€™s Â ability Â to Â stand Â up Â to Â the Â challenges Â posed Â by Â Chinaâ€™s Â growing Â A2/AD Â capabilities, Â saying: Â â€œCer-Â tainly, Â this Â kind Â of Â capability Â should Â be Â a Â concern Â to Â the Â region, Â and Â it Â poses Â a Â challenge Â to Â any Â naval Â or Â air Â operations Â that Â would Â be Â conducted Â in Â that Â area Â were Â it Â to Â be Â employed. Â Is Â it Â affecting Â my Â operations Â today? Â Not Â at Â all. Â Were Â it Â to Â pose Â a Â challenge Â to Â WKH8QLWHG6WDWHV,ÂśPFRQÂżGHQWWKDW, have Â the Â capability Â to Â operate Â in Â that Â air Â space Â and Â water Â space.â€? Â
BRANDEIS Â INTERNATIONAL Â JOURNAL Â Â Â APRIL Â 2011
Is corruption T draining the Indian economy? By Tanay Paranjape
Former Telecom Minister A Raja.
BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
he Indian government announced this week that GDP grew by 8.9% year-on-year in the most recent quarter. This makes it the second fastest growing economy after China However everything does not seem to be going well, as the country has seen many corruption scandals involving major corporates. Some of the major scandals include alleged bribes-for-loans involving state-controlled banks and lenders. There is alleged corruption in telecom market which cost the government exchequer a whopping $ 40 billion. Recently published IMF reports suggest a capital flight of $462 billion since independence. The telecom scandal has received the most attention due its magnanimity. The scandal has lead to the resignation of the Telecom Minister Andimuthu Raja subsequently charges were framed against him leading to his imprisonment. The Telecom Department under Minister Raja sold second-generation (2G) mobile-telephone licenses and bandwidth in 2008 at throwaway prices. Instead of auctioning them, he sold them at prices that had been set in 2001, when the market was far smaller causing the government a major revenue loss. To make matters worse, many of the firms that won licenses appear not to have been qualified. An audit by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India published last month said the sale was conducted on a murky “first come, first served basis”, in many cases to companies that lacked the necessary capital or had fogged essential documents. Two firms won licenses and then sold them to foreign firms: Unitech, primarily a property company, was part-bought by Norway’s Telenor; and nearly half of Swan Telecom was bought by Abu Dhabi’s Etisalet ETEL at much higher prices. India has grown rapidly since it underwent liberalization and major economic reforms in 1991. The country’s economy has grown over $ 1.43 trillion and has the potential for much more. But is this sort of crony capitalism hindering economic development? Is the money remaining the hands of a few where as a large section of the population does not benefit for the fruits of growth? The $ 40 billion dollars earned could be well spent in welfare schemes where the money is much needed. Healthcare, education and infrastructure which are among the major sectors needing massive government spending remain neglected which could provide for a more inclusive growth. The nexus between business and politicians is preventing the common man to benefit from the growth the nation has undergone. The government needs to take firm action against cases of corruption at all levels of government and bureaucracy. The imprisonment of a high ranking union cabinet minister will hopefully pose as a deterrent to others in government. 15
Turmoil in the Arab World
BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
Thousands camp out in Tahir Square, not willing to give up until they have won their rights.
BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
he stirrings of discontent in the Arab world that evolved into (in many cases) passion- ate protest and much violence, did not stem from issues unheard of until now. The protests occurred be- cause these people were unhappy, GLVVDWLV¿HGZLWKWKHLUTXDOLW\RIOLIH This unhappiness originated most directly from miserable unemploy- ment rates. Naturally, the people blame their leaders. Oppressive leaders have existed for as long as leaders have existed, and yet now, the people have more weapons with which to combat them. The twenty- ¿UVWFHQWXU\LVDQH[SHUWLQWKH science of communication. Social PHGLDIDFLOLWDWHVH[WUHPHO\HI¿FLHQW sending and receiving of messag- es- perfect for mass protests, and perfect for the countries in question, who have very young populations. The spread of these uprisings is ZKDWPDNHVWKHPVRVLJQL¿FDQWLQ a few short months, millions have fought in the streets for the right to be heard, decades-long rules have been disrupted, and an entire region is in turmoil. In the following few pages, we attempt to examine all aspects of the protests, using statis- tics and professional opinions. We begin with a background of events, which starts with Tunisia, the spark WKDWLJQLWHGWKHÀDPH«
Note: We concede that as events are changing day to day, especially in the case of Libya, some of the views ex- pressed in this section may not consider the most current developments.
An Age-Old Problem, Addressed by the Twenty-First Century Theme Section by Jesse Koklas 18
BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
Longtime Arab Leaders
Saudi Â Arabia
Leader, Â took Â power Â Â Â Â Â From Â U.S. Â State Â Dept.reports President Â Abdelaziz Thousands Â of Â enforced Â disappearances: %RXWHĂ€LND freedom Â of Â association Â is Â very Â restricted
Morocco King Â Mohammed VI,1999
Col. Â Moammar *DGKDÂż
Authoritarian Â regime;Íž Â torture, Â arbitrary arrest Â are Â continuing Â problems
President Â Hosni Mubarak, Â 1981
Emergency Â law Â in Â place Â for Â 30 Â yeaars effectively Â outlaws Â political Â parties
President Â Omar AI-ÂBashir, Â 1993
Bashir Â indicted Â for Â genocide Â for Â his counterinsurgency Â campaign Â in Â Darfur
King Â Abdullah 1999
Law Â does Â not Â provide Â citizens Â the Â right Â to Â change Â government
President Â Bashar Asad, Â 2000
Has Â failed Â to Â comply Â with Â minimum international Â human Â rights Â standards
King Â Abdullah, 2005
Severe Â violations of Â religious Â freedom
President Â Ali Abdullah Â Saleh, 1990
Mounting Â poverty Â among Â a Â growing Â young Â population;Íž Â frustration Â with a Â lack Â of Â political Â freedoms Â
Youth Â and Â Poverty Â Pop.(m)
Median Â age
Below Â poverty Â line% Internet Â Users(m)
%pop Â on Â internet
Libya Saudi Â Arabia Yemen Bahrain
Unemployment Â is Â a Â chief Â concern Â of Â the Â young, Â and Â a Â reason Â to Â rebel.
BRANDEIS Â INTERNATIONAL Â JOURNAL Â Â Â Â APRIL Â 2011
Statistics Â from Â CIA Â World Â Fact Â Book
A Timeline of Discontent Tunisia (the Spark) December 17, 2010: Mohammed Bouazizi, a young fruit and vegetable vendor, sets himself on fire in the street after local officials confiscate his stand because he did not have a permit. Many, who want better job options and a higher quality of life, share his discontent. Protests begin in Sidi Bouzid that same day. December 28, 2010: After several protests, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali says that the protests are unacceptable. Tunisia Federation of Labor Unions and 300 lawyers also rally to show their support for the protesters. The Tunisian ministers of communication, trade and handicrafts, and religious affairs are dismissed. Januray 2, 2011: The cyberactivist group “Anonymous” starts Operation Tunisia in solidarity with the protests by striking down a number of Tunisian government websites. Januray 7: A group of bloggers, journalists, activists and a rap singer are arrested. Snipers carry out a series of charges in Kasserine and Thala. Januray 13: Approximately 66 dead since the protests began. President Ali
announces he will not run for reelection. Januray 14: Ben Ali orders a state of emergency, and bans meetings of more than three people. The army seizes the country’s main airport. Ali’s family members are arrested. He escapes the country by plane. According to the UN, approximately 219 were killed in the uprisings, and another 510 injured. Egypt (the Big Deal) Januray 25, 2011: Protesters take to the streets in Cairo’s Tahir Square. Calls of “Down with Mubrak” resound. Januray 28: Internet and mobile phone text messages are disruped. President Hosni Mubarak announces he dismissed his government. Januray 29: Mubarak appoints a vice-President for the first time in three decades. Januray 31: 250,000 people gather in Tahir Square to protest an oppressive regime. The EU calls for free and fair elections in Egypt. The White House says the government must address the people and resolve unrest. Worldwide investors continue withdrawing signifi-
cant capital from Egypt in the midst of mounting unrest. February 1: Mubarak declares he will not run for reelection, but refuses to step down. President Obama says only the Egyptian people can determine their leaders. Protests continue and clashes break out between pro-Mubarak and anti-government forces. February 2: Internet is partially restored. Google improves its speak2tweet technology for the protesters. February 7: Thousands are camped out in Tahrir Square. The government approves a 15 per cent raise in salaries and pensions in a bid to appease the angry masses. Estimated number of people dead is 302. February 11: After tens of thousands people take to the streets across Egypt in angry protests, Mubarak resigns and hands over power to the army- technically a military coup. Scattered protests are still occurring, but the main objective, to remove Mubarak, was achieved. Libya (the Oil) February 15-16,2011: Protests erupt
The beginnings of unrest. Protesters experience violence in Tunisia. 20
BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
February 17: Calls for a “Day of Rage”
is made in response to an oppressive government under Muamar Qaddafi. February 22: Qaddafi orders his force to crush the uprisings. February 25: The EU agrees to impose an arms embargo, freeze assets, and impose a travel ban. February 28: Western powers discuss a no-flight zone, but need the Security Council’s decision. Pro-Qaddafi forces continue to clash with protesters, and the police and security continue to use weapons and violence against the protests. March 10: African Union summit held to find a solution. AU says external countries should not meddle in the affairs of Africa, and a no-flight zone would be violating previous agreements. March 17: The UN has backed a noflight zone. Enforcement is set to begin the 20-21st. Bahrain February 14: Clashes are reported
from parts of Bahrain. At least 14 people were injured in clashes over-
BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
night where police used tear gas and rubber bullets. February 15: On February 15, thousands of protesters manage to gain control of the Manama Pearl Roundabout, and tent there overnight, mimicking the protests in Tahir Square. February 18: Government uses live ammunition against the protesters. Protests and fighting continues, with no leniency on the part of the government. March 15: The king declares a threemonth state of emergency, authorizing armed forces chief to take all measures to “protect the safety of the country and its citizens.” Saudi Arabia Januray 15: Announces it is hosting Ben Ali and his family. In response to Bahrain unrest, the government bans all protests. March 16-17: Hundreds protest in the east in solidarity with the Bahraini protests. Yemen February 2, 2011: Thousands take to the streets in this “First Day of Rage.” March 1: : Hundreds of thousands rally
in most main cities to express solidarity with the families of protesters killed in the past month, particularly for a “Tuesday of Rage.” March 10: President Ali Abdullah Saleh goes on TV to announce plans to change the constitution to transition to a parliamentary system. He refuses to step down until 2013 (he has ruled for 32 years). Jordan Members of the Muslim Brotherhood, trade unions, and leftist organizations, numbering 500, demand that Samir Rifai step down as prime minister and that the government control rising prices, inflation and unemployment. Protests reported in the capital and six other cities. February 10: The old government officials let go a week earlier, a new government is sworn in. February 18: Protesters clash with police forces. February 25: 6,000-10,000 take to the streets in the capital, in a protest called for by 20 political parties. Protests continue. Januray 28, 2011:
Regional Perspectives European Perspective
Western Â Europe Â has Â always Â been Â a Â supporter Â of Â giving Â the Â common Â man Â a Â voice. Â The Â European Â Union Â has Â called Â the Â governments Â in Â the Â Middle Â East Â to Â enable Â a Â transition Â to Â a Â functional Â democracy. Â Particularly Â in Â WKHFDVHRI/LE\DDQRĂ€LJKW]RQHLVEHLQJFRQVLGHUHG Members Â aspiring Â to Â form Â an Â alternate Â government Â are Â in Â the Â process Â of Â meeting Â European Â heads Â of Â state Â and Â other Â political Â leaders. Â Europe Â hopes Â a Â transition Â to Â democracy Â will Â occur, Â where Â people Â get Â the Â legiti-Â mate Â rights Â they Â are Â being Â denied.
The Â rising Â crude Â oil Â prices Â have Â been Â a Â great Â concern Â for Â most Â Asian Â countries. Â Asia Â heavily Â depends Â on Â the Â Middle Â East Â to Â meet Â its Â crude Â oil Â requirements. Â The Â uncertainty Â associated Â with Â the Â production Â of Â oil Â has Â af-Â fected Â stock Â markets Â across Â Asia. Â Stability Â in Â WKH0LGGOH(DVWZRXOGKHOSUHVWRUHFRQÂżGHQFH in Â the Â markets. Â Asian Â countries Â desire Â quick Â restoration Â of Â peace Â and Â tranquility Â in Â the Â Middle Â East.
North American Perspective Overall, Â it Â is Â not Â in Â the Â interest Â of Â the Â United Â States Â for Â an Â anti-ÂAmerican Â regime Â to Â come Â into Â power Â for Â any Â of Â the Â countries Â in Â the Â region, Â although Â nothing Â is Â certain Â at Â the Â mo-Â ment. Â If Â Egypt, Â the Â center Â of Â the Â Arab Â nation, Â becomes Â anti-ÂAmerican Â and Â anti-ÂIsraeli, Â the Â United Â States Â will Â have Â to Â overturn Â its Â compre-Â hensive Â Middle Â East Â strategy Â formulated Â with Â the Â 1979 Â Egypt-ÂIsrael Â Peace Â Treaty. Â If Â Bahrain Â becomes Â anti-ÂAmerican, Â or Â even Â worse, Â an Â ,UDQLDQSUR[\WKH86WKĂ€HHWZLOOKDYHWR ÂżQGDQRWKHUEDVH)LQDOO\LIWKH/LE\DQVLWXD-Â tion Â degenerates Â into Â complete Â breakdown Â of Â law Â and Â order, Â it Â could Â potentially Â turn Â into Â a Â terrorist Â haven. Â The Â United Â States Â advocates Â DQRĂ€\]RQHLQ/LE\DEXWUHFRJQL]HVWKDWDQ invasion Â would Â not Â be Â in Â American Â interest.
The Arab League A Â quick Â resolution Â to Â the Â unrest Â is Â the Â wish Â of Â the Â Arab Â League. Â In Â the Â case Â of Â Libya, Â a Â QRĂ€\]RQHVKRXOG be Â employed, Â but Â there Â should Â be Â no Â invasion Â of Â Libya.
African Perspective The Â African Â Union Â initially Â did Â not Â want Â to Â get Â involved Â in Â WKHFRQĂ€LFWVRILWV$UDEQRUWK 1RZWKDWDQRĂ€LJKW]RQHLV being Â considered, Â however, Â the Â African Â Union Â has Â spoken Â out Â against Â it, Â saying Â it Â goes Â di-Â rectly Â against Â the Â Declaration Â of Â Economic Â Development Â signed Â at Â the Â 1973 Â conference Â in Â Algiers, Â which Â condemned Â foreign Â intervention Â in Â the Â affairs Â of Â Africa. Â Rwanda, Â as Â head Â of Â the Â Peace Â and Â Security Â Council, Â advocates Â an Â end Â to Â the Â violence Â and Â loss Â of Â life Â in Â Libya. Â
BRANDEIS Â INTERNATIONAL Â JOURNAL Â Â Â APRIL Â 2011
For Â the Â educated Â opinions, Â we Â turn Â to Â our Â professors. Â Who Â better Â to Â go Â to Â than Â the Â people Â who Â educate Â us, Â and Â shape Â how Â we Â think Â of Â the Â world? Â %HIRUHXVZHKDYHWZRRI%UDQGHLVÂśÂżQHVWZKRDS-Â proach Â the Â same Â issue Â a Â bit Â differently.
Interview Â With Â Professor Â Wellington Â Nyangoni Undergraduate Â Advising Â Head, Â Professor Â of Â African Â and Â Afro-Â American Â Studies by Jesse Koklas Do Â you Â think Â the Â same Â force Â is Â behind Â the Â unrest Â in Â Tunisia, Â Egypt, Â and Â Libya? Jesse Koklas:
Professor Wellington Nyangoni:
Yes or no. Many people were taken by surprise by the events in Tunisia, which was considered quite stable compared to Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries. But one could say that the government of Ben Ali had become very repressive, and it was a military regime that did not grant people the liberty that they wanted to have. So there was a simmering against the government, because when Ben Ali overthrew Bourguiba he claimed that there would be an open election, a democratic one. This openness [that had been promised] never came, and instead the military entrenched itself in power more and more and more. BRANDEIS Â INTERNATIONAL Â JOURNAL Â Â Â Â APRIL Â 2011
In terms of Egypt, one could argue that the state of emergency, which was proclaimed after Anwar Sadat was assassinated, was never removed, and also the democratic changes that were promised never came. The government became more oppressive, and different types of views were not accepted. When the rebellion would take place was a question of time, and eventually, it did. But I think where the problem lies is that we are not sure of how this was organized, we just hear it was all of a sudden- I donâ€™t think it was all of a sudden, I think it was organized. JK: Â Â So Â do Â you Â think Â democracy Â was Â
a Â main Â force Â behind Â the Â protests, Â or Â an Â actual Â force? Â WN: We are not sure, because we do not know the powers behind the
revolt- are these people democratic or not? We do not know. Particularly if you look in Tunisia, they rebelled. The army was in power. We really donâ€™t know who were the real brains behind the revolt, what is their ideology? If they are indeed talking about democracy, we do not know what kind of democracy they have in mind. You know, no oneâ€™s really come out and said, â€œThis is what we want; we want democracy.â€? What kind of democracy are people talking about? We donâ€™t know. In Egypt, some of the people who were behind this, the young people, have also not told us a clear vision of the Egypt they want. â€œMubarak go Mubarak go,â€? the army is now in power. They wanted changes, they wanted a new constitution, but we really do not know what kind of de23
mocracy they have in mind, and what kind of ideas they want this country to stand for. Their issues about Egypt’s relationship [with] Israel, not much has been said. Their ideas about the Arab League? Not much has been said. What about the ideas in the African Union, not much is said. I don’t want to say that it is democracy- one needs to know the characters behind this. In the case of Egypt, there is the Islamic
Brotherhood. What are its views about all these things? We know what they stood for in the past, and their enmity, their hatred for the West, we know. It is still unclear to me. JK: Is the situation in Libya jeop-
DUGL]LQJWKHVHFXULW\RIWKHDUHD" :RXOGLWEHEHQH¿FLDOIRU4DGGD¿ to go? WN: I know the common view ex-
We just had many more people killed in the Sudan, in Darfur- we did not enforce a QRÀLJKW]RQH there.”
pressed by many people is that Qaddafi should go. But who is going to replace him, what do these people believe in? I wish I knew the people who were trying to replace him and what their philosophy is of this revolution, if it indeed can be called a revolution. Where do they want to take Libya to? The other thing too, it’s all an issue of international law. The United Nations says that countries should not inter-
Education and the Internet These countries have a very high percentage of young adults of university age in school. The majority of people protesting are young adults, frustrated by the lack of job options after graduat- ing university. The Internet is a viable way to spread informa- tion, especially by young, educated people.
fere in the internal affairs of member states, and I am not sure I am the right person to say “Qaddafi should go.” JK: Well it’s your opinion. WN: Yes but I think it is the opinion of
the majority of Libyans who should say if he should go. It’s their country, and I think they have a right to determine how they should be governed and who should govern them. But I know some people have flown to Europe, saying Europe should impose a no-flight zone, but a no-flight imposition, that’s almost like a declaration of war. Do we 24
really want to intervene in Libya? If we do so, are we continually going to intervene everywhere where there is internal revolt? If there are revolts in any country, should we impose a no-flight zone in those areas? What about if it is a minority that is revolting- should we take the side of the minority? I mean I know the Marxist people have revolted in Bengazi, but that doesn’t reflect the overall opinion of what the Libyans think. I know for some reasons other people don’t like Qaddafi, he has been a thorn in the flesh of many countries, so many people want him to go. But
I’m not sure whether our like or dislike of Qaddafi should be the basis to say the government should be changed. JK: To what extend should the
United States intervene in the revo- lutions? WN: I personally don’t think that the United States alone should intervene; I think it should be a question for the UN to intervene. Or Europe. It should be the global community as agreed by the UN (particularly the Security Council). That would give it a semblance of legality, but if we just go by BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
ourselves to intervene, I donâ€™t think that would be legal under international law. JK: Â So Â why Â are Â we Â pushing Â for Â a Â no-Â Ă€LJKW]RQHGRZHHYHQKDYHLQWHU-Â ests Â besides Â humanitarian Â interests Â in Â Libya? WN: Libya is a very rich country in terms of oil, and some people want access to that oil. Italy and the Europeans have that, but that does not mean we
will not become interested in that oil[we as in] American companies. Was Â there Â any Â country Â that Â EHQHÂżWHGIURPWKHUHJLRQDOXQUHVW" Or Â is Â it Â too Â early Â to Â tell? WN: I think itâ€™s too early to tell, and also when we say benefits what do we mean, are we talking about political benefit, strategic benefit, what are we talking about. It is very difficult, JK:
Crisis Â in Â Egpt, Â Tunisia Â & Â Yemen
because these are unfolding events. Now, if Qaddafi is overthrown, maybe that will be a benefit in and of itself to some people. But suppose he clings onto power, and is not overthrown, what happens? What is our relationship going to be in the future with that country? I donâ€™t think we should be guided by the principles that we donâ€™t want him and therefore we should intervene- there should be much more
BuzzGraph Â of Â leading Â keywords
Tweets Â rose Â dramatically Â during Â the Â period Â of Â most Â intense Â protest Â in Â these Â countries, Â which Â shows Â how Â important Â and Â effective Â social Â media Â was Â when Â spreading Â and Â organizing Â the Â spirit Â of Â unrest.
than that, in terms of what our strategic interests in the area are. JK: Â :LOOLWVLJQLÂżFDQWO\LPSDFWWKH
African Â Union Â if Â he Â goes, Â or Â does Â he Â have Â UHODWLYHO\OLWWOHLQĂ€XHQFH"
Well, I would be surprised if many African countries would support the overthrow of Qaddafi, or even a noflight zone imposed, because Qaddafi is a member of the African Union, an active member, and the African union is opposed to foreign countries intervening and changing governments in Africa. If they go to Libya, where else will they go? Many of the African countries would rather have WN:
BRANDEIS Â INTERNATIONAL Â JOURNAL Â Â Â Â APRIL Â 2011
immediate settlement in the area. As you and I are talking, there are efforts in the African Union right now to try and mediate what is happening to try to bring peace to the area. We just had many more people killed in the Sudan, in Darfur- we did not enforce a no-flight zone there. A lot of people have been killed in the Congo, and although the UN is there, not much is happening, there has not been a major posture to intervene in Darfur. JK: Â What Â effect Â will Â these Â revolutions Â
have Â on Â the Â worldâ€™s Â oil Â supply? WN:
Saudi Arabia has said that it will
increase the production of oil to offset the loss of the oil from Libya. Nigeria and other countries have said they are willing to step up their supply- good for them economically. But one just wonders if there was really no oil, if there was nothing, whether the international community would have been so moved to try and intervene and argue for the overthrow of Libya. Itâ€™s suspicious. But I have not talked to any of these people, to the people in the U.S. government, so there is no definitive answer. I can merely speculate as to why some countries would want to intervene. 25
Interview with Professor Shai Feldman Judy and Sidney Swartz Director’s Chair of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies and Professor of Politics by Sungtae Park
Sungtae Park: What are the un-
derlying causes, conditions of the unrest in the region? Are they all different? Professor Shai Feldman: The deeper, structural causes are at least three. You have one very authoritarian regime. You have huge corruption. You have huge economic disparities even in countries that experienced recently rapid economic growth. The fruits of the economic growth were not distributed fairly. The most went to a very thin stratum. Then, you have the complete inefficiency and dis-functionality of the government. Finally, you have the demography, which is very young population that is getting into the workforce without sufficient employment opportunities. So the huge dis26
content in the middle class. And that’s common to a number of different Arab countries. None of this explains, by the way, why this happened now. No one predicted that this would happen now. Beyond these three or four main, basic reasons, there are huge differences between every country. In Bahrain, you have the whole issue of the SunniShia divide. Even with respect to these days, when we see the beginning of some protest in Saudi Arabia. To some extent, it’s taking place in the Eastern provinces and is also connected to the Sunni-Shia divide. In Jordan, all these socio-economic issues intersect with the issue of the Palestinians. So, yes, there are some basic, common issues in the Arab world but there are also big differences. Again, no one actually
saw all this coming. So that leaves a different question. Why did it happen now? What can the outsiders do about the unrest in the region? SF: One thing I’m going to stay away from is giving advice to the U.S. government. What we need to take account is that these are revolutions or protests that are run by the people themselves. Whether it’s the U.S. or anybody else. I don’t think there’s much that outsiders can do. Now, if you have situations like in Libya, which is different from all the other situations because there, the situation has deteriorated to a civil war. The outsiders can affect it because what you see is the use of airplanes, artillery, SP:
BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
tank forces, and so on. To the extent to which the use of these weapons will be constrained by outsiders, they can influence the situation. They can influence the balance of power between the pro-Gaddafi and anti-Gaddafi forces. Whether they should do that or not is a value judgment. But we can at least say that in contrast to the situation in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, and other places, where this was primarily a protest movement and a confrontation between a protest movement and the regime, where I don’t think outsiders could affect it much. They could affect
one aspect of it, which is the reaction of the military, to the extent to which other militaries have relationship with, for example, the Egyptian military. They could probably somewhat affect the reaction of the Egyptian military and the decision not to confront and not to suppress the protesters. But overall, the impact of outsiders in this situation was very limited. In Libya, now that it has degenerated into a civil war, outsiders, if they are willing to intervene militarily, they can affect the outcome of the civil war. But they have to be willing to do that.
:KREHQH¿WVDQGZKRORVHV from the unrest? SF: I think that’s a question that is much too early to answer because all of this is still work in progress in almost all these countries. So the issue of who benefits and who loses is a question that can only be answered once these developments will begin to stabilize and we know what’s happening. In Egypt, which is the most important, the largest, and the most populous of the Arab countries, one that has set the pace of the Arab world on more than one occasion, we are only in the SP:
In the end, we have to remember that whatever regime change there will be, in any one of these countries, they will have to sell their oil.
beginning of this process. The constitutional amendments committee has just brought out the amendments that it wants to see. This will be up for the referendum very soon. There will be new parliamentary elections. There eventually will be presidential elections. We will have to see the outcomes of all these moves to be able to see what kind of new Egypt will emerge out of that. Even after all of that, we will not be able to say anything remotely definite as to who benefited and who lost in the region. Take Iran for example. If the net result of all of this would be the strengthening of the Muslim Brothers in Egypt, does this benefit Iran? On one side, it supports religiosity. The religious forces become stronger. But on the other hand, it’s BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
the religiosity of the rival camp. It’s the Sunnis. In a way, a challenge to the religious leadership of the Shia in Iran. Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the Sunni religious leader that was in Qatar and now was permitted to come back to Cairo and give a sermon in Tahrir Square. That’s a big boost for the Sunni camp. It’s just a small example of how difficult it is at this point and time to say who’s benefiting and who’s losing and so on. I guess one can say that the only party that you could say in this situation, that is very hard to see how they could lose as the result of all of these is, but not impossible, everything is possible in the Middle East, are the Muslim Brothers. They are the best organized to take advantage of the situation, and already it seems like many of
the constraints that they have suffered for a number of decades, at least temporarily, have been lifted. It was inconceivable that al-Qaradawi would be allowed to give sermons in Tahrir Square three months ago. Clearly, they have proven to have organizational capacities better than anyone else except the military in Egypt. One of their members is a member of the constitutional amendment committee. Sympathetic to them, close to them, is the chairman of the committee. At least in the near term, it’s quite clear that the Muslim Brothers have gained from these developments. But that’s in the short term, and nobody can say what’s going to happen in the long term. SP: How will the unrest affect the 27
Southerners wait to vote on the matter of secession. Photograph: Jenn Warren/USAID Africa Bureau
Africa’s 54th State The Future of a Free Southern Sudan By Jesse Koklas
BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
It is…the strength- ening of a distinct African identity- an identity as free as possible from (XURSHDQLQÀX- ences.
BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
he Â independence Â of Â south Â Sudan Â will Â force Â governments Â to Â pay Â greater Â attention Â to Â the Â concerns Â and Â grievances Â of Â marginalised Â areas. Â Regions Â which Â have Â had Â long-Âstanding Â secessionist Â threats Â are Â likely Â to Â receive Â closer Â at-Â tention Â from Â African Â leaders,â€? Â Knox Â Chitiyo, Â head Â of Â the Â Africa Â programme Â at Â the Â Royal Â United Â Service Â Institute, Â has Â said. Â When Â the Â European Â powers Â drew Â borders Â in Â the Â â€œscramble Â for Â Af-Â ricaâ€? Â in Â the Â 1880â€™s, Â ethnic Â bound-Â aries Â of Â Africaâ€™s Â inhabitants Â were Â disregarded. Â When Â independence Â was Â won Â from Â colonial Â control, Â keeping Â these Â borders Â avoided Â disputes Â that Â could Â easily Â escalate. Â 7KHVRXWKHUQ6XGDQZLOOEHWKHÂżUVW nation Â to Â secede Â post-Âindependence Â IURPFRORQLDOFRQWUROLWLVWKHÂżUVW 32
nation Â to Â disregard Â the Â African Â Unionâ€™s Â wish Â that Â its Â countries Â remain Â united. Â Â Â Â Â Joint Â British-ÂEgyptian Â rule Â of Â the Â Sudan Â ended Â in Â 1956. Â Unrest Â quickly Â evolved Â into Â full-Âscale Â civil Â war, Â which Â resulted Â in Â an Â extremely Â unstable Â government Â and Â strained Â relations Â with Â its Â neighbor Â Chad. Â Extensive Â human Â rights Â abuses Â KDYHRFFXUUHGIURPWKHFRQĂ€LFW in Â Darfur, Â which Â has Â caused Â 2.7 Â million Â people Â to Â leave Â their Â homes Â (according Â to Â the Â UN) Â and Â more Â than Â 200,000 Â to Â die Â in Â seven Â years. Â In Â January Â of Â 2005 Â a Â peace Â deal Â was Â signed, Â followed Â by Â the Â establishment Â of Â a Â power-Âsharing Â government Â in Â Khartoum, Â the Â capital. Â In Â October Â of Â the Â same Â year Â an Â autonomous Â government Â was Â formed Â in Â the Â south, Â run Â by Â former Â rebels. Â In Â 2009 Â the Â war Â in Â Darfur Â
ZDVRIÂżFLDOO\FRQVLGHUHGRYHUDOWKRXJK ÂżJKWLQJGLGQRWVWRS,Q'HFHPEHU the Â leaders Â of Â North Â and Â South Â reach Â the Â terms Â of Â a Â referendum Â agreement Â for Â secession. Â In Â January Â of Â 2011 Â the Â people Â of Â the Â South Â voted Â in Â favor Â of Â full Â inde-Â pendence Â from Â the Â North. Â $IWHUGHFDGHVRIÂżJKWLQJZLWKDGHDWK toll Â of Â over Â 1.5 Â million Â people, Â the Â South Â LVRQHVWHSFORVHUWRÂżQDOO\JDLQLQJWKHLU own Â identity Â when Â it Â splits Â from Â the Â North Â in Â July. Â Â Â Â The Â most Â immediate Â issue Â of Â the Â suc-Â cession Â is Â the Â dispute Â over Â the Â (question-Â ably) Â oil-Ârich Â border Â town Â Abyei. Â Short-Â ly Â after Â the Â peace Â deal Â in Â January, Â from Â 10 Â to Â 36 Â people Â were Â killed Â in Â quarrels Â over Â grazing Â rights Â for Â cattle-Â Â an Â integral Â part Â of Â the Â economy Â there. Â The Â two Â main Â ethnic Â groups Â involved Â were Â the Â Dinka Â Ngok, Â who Â want Â their Â city Â to Â be Â south-Â ern, Â and Â the Â Arab Â Misseriya Â who Â want Â it Â to Â be Â northern. Â Abyei Â will Â vote Â in Â the Â near Â future. Â Doubts Â have Â surfaced Â as Â to Â whether Â it Â would Â dare Â join Â the Â South Â and Â anger Â the Â North. Â If Â it Â does, Â the Â North Â is Â XQOLNHO\WRDFFHSWLWZLWKRXWDÂżJKW %HVLGHVWKHFRQĂ€LFWWKDWLVVXUHWRDULVH over Â Abyei, Â the Â South Â has Â much Â work Â and Â developing Â ahead Â if Â it Â is Â to Â be Â successful. Â The Â current Â transportation Â infrastructure Â and Â the Â amount Â of Â schools Â and Â hospitals Â cannot Â accommodate Â its Â roughly Â 8 Â million Â people. Â Â Â Â The Â African Â Union Â has Â called Â for Â unity Â and Â discouraged Â secession Â in Â the Â past. Â However, Â the Â secession Â of Â South Â Sudan Â could Â very Â well Â be Â considered Â an Â effort Â towards Â unity Â in Â a Â different Â sense. Â ,WLVWKHRIÂżFLDOVSOLWWLQJRIDFRXQWU\ that Â was Â always Â much Â too Â diverse Â to Â be Â united, Â and Â the Â strengthening Â of Â a Â distinct Â African Â identity-Â Â an Â identity Â as Â IUHHDVSRVVLEOHIURP(XURSHDQLQĂ€X-Â ences. Â It Â is Â foreseeable Â that Â North Â Sudan Â will Â identify Â more Â strongly Â with Â the Â Arab Â North, Â and Â the Â South Â will Â be Â a Â welcomed Â addition Â to Â the Â character Â of Â southern Â Africa. Â Although Â there Â is Â clear-Â ly Â much Â work Â ahead Â and Â more Â violence Â almost Â inevitable, Â the Â new Â nation Â should Â be Â seen Â as Â a Â positive Â step Â for Â Africa. Â It Â is Â a Â symbol Â of Â self-Âdeterminism, Â and Â a Â breaking Â free Â of Â the Â limitations Â of Â impe-Â rialist Â boundaries. Â Africaâ€™s Â 54th Â addition Â may Â be Â its Â most Â African Â yet. Â Â Â BRANDEIS Â INTERNATIONAL Â JOURNAL Â Â Â APRIL Â 2011
Failures of International Pressure and Intervention Leave Ivory Coast in a State of Anarchy By Karia Sekumbo
s Ivory Coast nears 4 months since the presidential elec- tions, the country has not moved closer in deciding who the next leader will be. Tensions in Abidjan run high as presidents elect Llaurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara cling on to the title of president. Outtara holds his ground on the basis of a United Nations backed electoral com- mittee recognizing him as the right- ful president. Conversely, Gbagbo, refuses to relinquish power on the claims that there was rigging in the north. As a consequence of the rig- ging, the Constitutional Council of Ivory Coast has over ruled the results coming from the north and has sworn BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
in Llaurent Gbagbo as the rightful president. The international communi- W\KDVWDNHQVLJQL¿FDQWVWHSVWRZDUGV isolating Gbagbo, including freezing of foreign assets and a recent ban on cocoa exports (Ivory Coast’s chief export and provider of foreign cur- rency) whilst it has also urged member states of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to take action against him. However, as Gbagbo still maintains strong back- ing from the military and considerable local support, these steps taken by the international community have proven to be futile as he refuses to relinquish power and has in fact moved towards coercing Outtara to recede from his
claims of being president. This dan- gerous stalemate has left Ivory Coast in a situation edging closer towards civil unrest. As per the laws of international sovereignty, it has to be called into question why the UN backed electoral committee had such a heavy say in the domestic affairs of Ivory Coast. More so, as the country’s local authorities have sworn in Gbagbo as president, what right does the UN electoral com- mittee have in recognizing Outtara as the president and thus ignoring the local constituents? The sovereignty of any country lies in its ability to act autonomously without foreign involvement in domestic affairs, and 33
Alassane Ouattara Born: 1st January 1949 Political Party: Rally of the Republicans Religion: Islam Served as Prime Minister: 7th November 1990 -1993
the United Nation’s decision to go beyond the boundaries of provid- ing humanitarian and technical assistance has proven to be contra- dictory of its own ideals in respect- ing and recognizing international sovereignty. With the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) showing no intent on following through on their word to use “legiti- mate force” in removing Gbagbo, it is apparent that whatever interna- tional intervention was promised in Ivory Coast has failed to material- ize and has instead left Ivory Coast in a state edging closer and closer WRFLYLOFRQÀLFW After having seen two attempts by former UN Secretary General;; .R¿$QQDQDQGIRUPHUSUHVLGHQWRI South Africa;; Thabo Mbeki fail at mediating the disputes between the two parties;; there are no positive signs for a peaceful resolution and agreement between the two. This
comes after Outtara’s party express- ing a positive attitude towards a power sharing agreement. In any case, allowing any sort of power sharing agreement would set an ominous precedent for future demo- cratic elections in any African state DVLWVLJQL¿HVWKDWWZRULYDOSDUWLHV may contest and pledge a case for power sharing in the event that they do not agree with the outcome of their elections. This, in effect would be counter intuitive for any demo- cratic state in the world. As things currently stand, Outtara is the more isolated party in this circumstance as he is administers his affairs from a hotel in Abidjan heavily guarded by UN troops. On the other hand Gbagbo, stands in a position of more power than Outtara as he still controls most of Ivory Coast’s resources despite a freezing of foreign assets and is most importantly, in control of the army. BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
Therefore, the cleanest resolu- tion from this situation is to allow Gbagbo to serve another term in RI¿FHWKURXJKZKLFKKHKDVWKH option of recognizing Outtara as a subordinate. With interna- tional intervention, Ivory Coast’s sovereignty is put in severe ques- tion. Also, this option must be discarded as it sets an example for the international community which would not be kept in all countries where there are political disputes, particularly in the countries whose political presence on a global scale LVRIDPRUHVLJQL¿FDQWOHYHOWKDQ Ivory Coast. In addition to this, as long as Gbagbo retains military support, the threat of violence escalat- ing to disproportionate heights always looms. Therefore, on the grounds of respecting international sovereignty and avoiding the risk of civil unrest, casualties, and displacement, it is of paramount BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
importance that the United Nations and all other interested interna- tional parties including France and Britain withdraw from any political interference in the Ivory Coast as they may provoke a humanitarian crisis amid confrontation with pro Gbagbo forces. With allowing for Outtara to serve under him, Gbagbo would WDNHDVLJQL¿FDQWVWHSLQEULGJLQJ political factions within the coun- try and at the same time appease himself towards member states of the international community as he takes steps towards working with opposition for the welfare of the people of Ivory Coast. In Outtara’s situation, as he is current cornered into a position whereby he holds no credible authority, serving under Gbagbo would allow him to par- tially administer the policies that he had wanted to, and at the same time regroup his political party to consider their next strategy.
Llaurent Gbagbo Born: 31st May 1945 Political Party: Ivorian Popular Front Religion: Roman Catholic $VVXPHG2I¿FH 26th October 2010
Democratic Republic of Congo: Is There Any Hope? By Jesse Koklas
he Â Democratic Â Republic Â of Â Congo Â is Â rich Â in Â valuable Â min-Â erals Â and Â natural Â resources, Â rare Â animal Â species, Â and Â beautiful Â rainfor-Â ests. Â It Â is Â poor Â in Â every Â other Â way: Â it Â is Â one Â of Â the Â most Â economically Â stricken Â and Â war-Âtorn Â countries Â in Â the Â world. Â Â Â Â Â In Â 1960, Â Belgium Â was Â no Â longer Â able Â to Â maintain Â control Â of Â such Â a Â vast Â territory, Â and Â the Â Republic Â of Â Congo Â became Â independent Â of Â imperial Â rule. Â The Â country Â greeted Â independence Â with Â instability Â and Â questionable Â lead-Â ership. Â In Â 1964 Â Joseph Â Mobutu Â seized Â power Â through Â a Â coup, Â and Â renamed Â the Â country Â Zaire. Â Due Â to Â a Â lack Â of Â foresight Â and Â poor Â decision-Âmaking Â on Â Mobutuâ€™s Â part, Â the Â economy Â steadily Â deteriorated. Â In Â 1990, Â in Â response Â to Â voices Â of Â dissatisfaction, Â Mobutu Â agreed Â to Â lift Â the Â ban Â on Â multiparty Â politics Â and Â hand Â over Â a Â small Â portion Â of Â his Â power Â to Â a Â transitional Â govern-Â ment. Â In Â May Â of Â 1997, Â rebels Â captured Â the Â capital, Â and Â named Â the Â country Â the Â Democratic Â Republic Â of Â Congo Â once Â more. Â Laurent Â Kabila Â is Â made Â presi-Â dent. Â Â Â Â Â Turmoil Â continued. Â In Â August Â of Â 1998 Â rebels Â backed Â by Â Rwanda Â and Â Uganda Â rose Â up Â against Â Kabila, Â and Â Zimbabwe, Â Angola, Â and Â Namibia Â sent Â troops Â to Â help Â repel Â them. Â The Â rebels Â took Â control Â of Â much Â of Â the Â east, Â and Â ZDUEHJDQ$OWKRXJKDFHDVHÂżUHZDV
VLJQHGWKHQH[W\HDUWKHZDURIÂżFLDOO\ continued Â until Â 2003. Â In Â May Â of Â 2005 Â a Â new Â constitution Â was Â adopted Â by Â parliament, Â but Â did Â not Â signify Â hope Â or Â a Â new Â era Â for Â the Â DRC;Íž Â violence Â remains Â an Â active Â part Â of Â life Â today. Â In Â fact, Â that Â very Â year Â the Â ICC Â ac-Â cused Â warlord Â Thomas Â Lubanga Â of Â employing Â child Â soldiers. Â The Â rape, Â kidnapping, Â mutilation, Â and Â torture Â of Â thousands Â of Â women Â and Â girls Â by Â the Â Congolese Â army Â and Â foreign Â militias Â were Â almost Â completely Â ignored. Â There Â is Â more Â attention Â today Â on Â these Â issues Â today, Â but Â these Â atrocities Â still Â occur. Â This Â is Â partly Â due Â to Â the Â fact Â that Â the Â media Â is Â mainly Â state-Ârun, Â and Â those Â who Â try Â to Â uncover Â corruption Â are Â faced Â with Â threats, Â arrest, Â and Â vio-Â lence. Â The Â violence Â is Â also Â extremely Â GLIÂżFXOWWRFRQWDLQEHFDXVHWKHUHLV simply Â too Â much Â of Â it. Â Â Â Â Each Â attempt Â to Â usurp Â an Â oppres-Â sive Â government Â has Â served Â only Â to Â institute Â a Â different Â oppressor. Â All Â use Â violence, Â and Â all Â seem Â to Â have Â no Â regard Â for Â their Â people. Â Again, Â clashes Â broke Â out Â in Â August Â 2008, Â this Â time Â in Â the Â east Â between Â army Â troops Â and Â reb-Â els Â led Â by Â Laurent Â Nkunda. Â Thousands Â were Â forced Â from Â their Â homes. Â This Â bout Â of Â battles Â seemed Â to Â be Â a Â mistake Â strategically Â on Â the Â part Â of Â Nkunda-Â Â in-Â ternational Â discontent Â soared Â because Â of Â it, Â and Â in Â 2009 Â he Â was Â arrested Â by Â
Rwandan Â forces Â (those Â who Â were Â once Â loyal Â to Â him). Â Â Â Â Â Solutions Â to Â the Â violence Â were Â not Â near. Â In Â May Â of Â 2009 Â Kabila Â approved Â a Â law Â that Â gives Â amnesty Â to Â armed Â JURXSVLQDQDWWHPSWWRHQGÂżJKW-Â ing Â in Â east, Â yet Â all Â it Â seemed Â to Â do Â ZDVH[FXVHWKHÂżJKWLQJDQGDOORZLW continue. Â From Â June Â to Â August Â of Â the Â same Â year, Â an Â operation Â was Â launched Â against Â Ugandan Â rebels Â that Â forced Â SHRSOHWRĂ€HHIURPWKH1RUWK Now, Â President Â Kabila Â is Â pressuring Â the Â UN Â to Â leave Â the Â country Â before Â elections Â in Â 2011. Â It Â seems Â unlikely Â that Â the Â UN Â will Â leave Â now, Â though, Â after Â a Â peacekeeping Â effort Â of Â eleven Â years. Â A Â New Â York Â Times Â article Â aptly Â described Â the Â situation: Â â€œnowhere Â else Â in Â the Â world Â has Â the Â United Â Nations Â invested Â so Â much Â and Â accomplished Â so Â little.â€? Â It Â appears Â clear Â to Â all Â except Â the Â UN Â that Â its Â peacekeeping Â there Â is Â futile. Â Â Â Â Â The Â devastation Â brought Â on Â by Â the Â turbulence Â of Â the Â past Â few Â decades Â is Â extensive. Â But Â is Â there Â truly Â no Â hope? Â It Â sure Â seems Â that Â way. Â The Â army Â is Â corrupt, Â promoting Â violence Â WRSURÂżWIURPPLQLQJVPXJJOLQJDQG poaching, Â according Â to Â the Â UN. Â The Â leadership Â has Â failed Â countless Â times Â to Â improve Â life Â for Â its Â people. Â Rebels Â roam Â the Â country. Â Â Â Â Â There Â has Â been Â much Â attention Â on Â
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Approxi-Â mately Â 45,000 Â peo-Â ple Â have Â died Â each Â month Â since Â 2003, Â when Â the Â war Â ended.
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%R\VGLVSODFHGE\ÂżJKWLQJLQWKHHDVW1RYHPEHUSHRSOHZHUHVKHO-Â tered Â here Â at Â the Â Don Â Bosco Â school Â compound. Â Picture Reuters/Finbar oâ€™Reilley
the Â â€œrevolutionsâ€? Â in Â the Â north Â of Â Africa, Â while Â relatively Â little Â atten-Â tion Â is Â paid Â to Â a Â crisis Â where Â approximately Â 45,000 Â people Â have Â died Â each Â month Â since Â 2003, Â when Â the Â war Â ended. Â But Â will Â more Â interna-Â tional Â intervention Â help? Â The Â leaders Â of Â the Â DRC Â will Â work Â to Â evade Â international Â law, Â which Â they Â appear Â to Â have Â no Â regard Â for. Â By Â re-Â questing Â the Â UN Â to Â leave, Â they Â have Â made Â it Â clear Â they Â want Â no Â help. Â What Â the Â international Â community Â can Â do Â is Â streamline Â aid. Â There Â is Â currently Â around Â $3 Â billion Â in Â development Â aid Â from Â donor Â coun-Â tries-Â Â where Â is Â the Â money Â going? Â This Â brings Â us Â back Â to Â the Â issue Â of Â corruption-Â Â present Â in Â many Â African Â governments. Â Usually, Â the Â affairs Â of Â Africa Â should Â be Â for Â Africa Â to Â attend Â to, Â and Â its Â own Â people Â should Â solve Â its Â problems. Â When Â an Â outside Â country Â is Â giving Â aid, Â though, Â the Â path Â the Â aid Â takes Â should Â be Â monitored. Â The Â donor Â countries Â of Â the Â DRC Â should Â make Â efforts Â to Â ensure Â the Â money Â is Â not Â used Â for Â the Â personal Â uses Â of Â those Â with Â power, Â but Â that Â it Â actually Â makes Â it Â to Â the Â people. Â Â Â Â Â The Â way Â to Â help Â the Â people Â is Â by Â working Â to Â improve Â their Â quality Â of Â life. Â Hospitals Â and Â schools Â need Â to Â be Â built. Â Education Â empow-Â ers Â the Â people, Â and Â provides Â a Â way Â out Â of Â poverty. Â A Â transformation Â is Â necessary Â from Â the Â bottom Â up;Íž Â greater Â development Â of Â education, Â KHDOWKDQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLVWKHÂżUVWVWHSWRZDUGVDPRUHKRSHIXOQD-Â WLRQIUHHRIÂżJKWLQJDQGGLVRUGHU$VRIQRZWKHUHLVDSSUR[LPDWHO\ $24 Â trillion Â worth Â of Â untapped Â resources. Â The Â resources Â should Â be Â used Â to Â help Â the Â country Â and Â the Â people, Â not Â as Â a Â source Â of Â war. Â If Â greater Â value Â is Â placed Â on Â the Â people Â and Â on Â strengthening Â the Â unity Â of Â the Â nation, Â this Â very Â long Â process Â of Â improvement Â can Â begin. Â
Julian Assange By Sam Datlof
irected and represented by the now world-famous Julian As- sange, Wikileaks sprang into the general American consciousness in the summer of 2010 upon releasing the leaked “Collateral Murder” video that depicts the slaughter of dozens of civilians, including two Reuters journalists, in Iraq. Although the orga- nization has been releasing private and FODVVL¿HGGRFXPHQWVIRU\HDUVRQWRS- ics from Arab assassination schemes, to Peruvian oil scandals, to the Iranian nuclear program, it took the combina- tion of “Collateral Murder” and the publishing of some 250,000 US dip- lomatic documents in November 2010 to spark the international debate about privacy, security, and transparency, that is occurring today. Wikileaks pursues its ends in an overzealous manner, striving to drive governmental transparency to lev- els neither attainable nor functional. Wikileaks’s stated goal is to promote transparent and fair government and business by providing a mechanism for whistleblowers to anonymously submit evidence of oppressive and 38
corrupt practices around the world. A small, and ironically nameless, team of employees then vets the information submitted by the whistleblowers and presents the revelations in the form of “leaks”, attempting to expose state and corporate secrets while maintaining the anonymity of whistleblowers. The reactions to the leaks have been passionate, both for and against Wikileaks. Human rights and jour- nalism organizations, like Amnesty International and The Economist, have bestowed upon Wikileaks and Mr. As- sange some of their most prestigious awards. On the other hand, Attorney General of the United States, Eric Holder, threatens to prosecute those who publish American state secrets. He even warns that the United States will work to “close the gaps” prevent- ing the prosecution of foreign nation- als like Mr. Assange. These “gaps” already appear to be closing, as mem- bers of both the Senate and the House of Representatives have proposed amendments to the Espionage Act that would make publishing the names of US informants a violation an act of
espionage. The current and future effects of Wikileaks on international affairs are both wide-ranging and uncertain. The organization has uncovered corruption in many parts of the world, catalyzing change and transparency. It sends a powerful message to potential wrong- doers: the world is changing, and with new forms of communication, legal and moral transgressions are more likely to be uncovered. More disturb- ingly, Wikileaks has also revealed the identities of many US informants in Afghanistan, putting the lives of inno- cent people at the mercy of a Taliban that is just as able to read the leaks as any Western citizen. While it is still unclear if any lives have been lost due to this, the possibility is real. Addition- ally, Wikileaks has made public hun- dreds of thousands of US diplomatic cables revealing a wide array of pri- vate correspondences. These include KRQHVW\HWXQÀDWWHULQJFKDUDFWHUL]D- tions of foreign leaders, and sensitive diplomatic communications within the US government and with other entities that were not intended for BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
The world is changing, and with new forms of communication, legal and moral transgressions are more likely to be uncovered.
public scrutiny. At the very least, it is likely that these revelations will have a chilling effect on diplomatic relations across the globe;; if actors realize that WKHLUFRQ¿GHQFHFDQQRWRUZLOOQRWEH kept, they will be less likely to engage in any delicate or private activity, be it illicit or legitimate. But what motivates the actions of Mr. Assange? What are his goals and what is his end-game? Some insight can be gleaned from two essays published by Mr. Assange himself in 2006: State and Terrorist Conspira- cies, and Conspiracy as Governance. $VVDQJHLGHQWL¿HVJRYHUQPHQWVDQG corporations as “conspiracies”, or organizations that makes “secret plans jointly to commit a harmful act”. He then goes on to describe conspiracies as decentralized groups that rely on communication to achieve their devi- ous ends. The traditional means of destroying a conspiracy is to destroy the most central or active members who communicate with the most other members of the conspiracy or are the most fundamental parts of the plot, either through assassination, incarcera- tion, or any other means. According to Mr. Assange, this “traditional” attack on conspiracy may not be the most effective strategy in the age of modern communication. Wikileaks is based on the theory that instead of attacking individual members of a conspiracy, it is possible to attack the group as a whole, by inhibiting their ability and willingness to conspire. Releasing FODVVL¿HGGRFXPHQWVIURPJRYHUQ- ments, corporations and individuals destroys the perception of secrecy that these actors once had. The logical ex- BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011
tension of this involuntary increase in transparency is a disincentive against morally bankrupt acts.
practiced by Wikileaks until 2010, with the massive leak of US diplo- matic cables they elected to instead throw sand in the cogs of the entire US here are many problems, both government, complicated both legiti- practical and theoretical, with mate and illegitimate action. Instead of Mr. Assange’s theory. First putting and end to “lying, corrupt and and foremost, a perfectly transparent murderous leadership from Bahrain government cannot function. While to Brazil”, as he claims is his goal, he increased transparency in government vastly complicates the legitimate tasks is a laudable goal, especially given of governments to form trade agree- recent revelations of human rights ments, come to diplomatic solutions abuses on American soil as well as to international problems, protect their abroad, the standard of transparency informants helping protect innocent Wikileaks forces upon governments lives in Afghanistan and Iraq, and any is unattainable. A certain level of pri- number of other governmental tasks vacy is essential in governance. Frank that require even a grain of tact or and honest assessments of foreign secrecy. leaders need to be made so that dip- Somehow, in the crusade against lomats can most effectively conduct conspiracy, Assange forgets the most business with them. Military and in- LPSRUWDQWZRUGLQKLVGH¿QLWLRQRI WHOOLJHQFHLQIRUPDQWVLQWKH¿HOGQHHG the enemy: harmful. Secrets shared WRKDYHFRQ¿GHQFHWKDWWKHLULGHQWLWLHV among a group of actors do not inher- will not be published on the Internet. ently constitute conspiracies, and Leaders willing to make concessions therefore do not merit destruction. Mr. for the greater good but who cannot Assange’s concern is a legitimate one: lose face need to keep facets of agree- that governments have too much free ments hidden. The fact of the matter reign, that they use wars as an excuse is, a perfectly transparent government for secrecy, and that trust in the United would destroy any country’s ability States, the supposed beacon of de- to defend itself. Without the capac- mocracy, has been betrayed from Abu ity to protect intelligence sources, Ghraib to Guantanamo. Wikileaks negotiating instructions, the identities and other similar technologies have of under-cover operatives, military ca- the potential to be powerful forces for pabilities, and unpopular but necessary good, for more transparent govern- diplomatic agreements, a country’s ment, and for accountability both ability to conduct both diplomacy and in government and in the corporate war would be irreparably undermined. world, but they need to learn to target Assange’s model leaves no room for their actions against those deserving moral, law-respecting, legitimate of exposure. Eliminating corruption is governments. Instead of focusing his a worthy goal;; to attempt to eliminate attack on solely the corrupt practices secrecy altogether, however, would be of governments, as was generally misguided.
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BRANDEIS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL APRIL 2011