World + 3 Journal

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The World +3° This is a student-led journal focusing on imagining the problems our warming climate will bring and what we can do to counter them. It's hard to imagine a World +3°C, but it's becoming increasingly clear that we must. The central question at the core of our journal is this...

How do we live in a World +3°? The Future of Energy Storage

The Future of Infectious Diseases

The Future of Floating Solar Panel Technology

Urban Scotland Plus Three Degrees

The Lurking Dangers of Space Pollution

+ More!



WELCOME TO GLASGOW! The city motto here is that ‘People make Glasgow’, while the University slogan is ‘World-changers welcome’. Suffice to say this is a city which believes in the power of individual action! For those of you gathering at the COP, your power is even greater. To have the ability to make a decisive impact on the world with one or two actions is something most of us can only dream of. As you read through this journal, I hope you understand the responsibility which comes from your power. We’ve not solved all of the world’s problems within these pages, but I hope we have demonstrated the simple fact that solutions exist for the problems a changing climate will throw at us, and that the best time to prepare for it is now because a time is coming when it will be too late. You reading this, right now, have the capacity to create change, to prepare for what is coming. We need you to protect us, with your laws and with your funding. Flicking through this journal I hope you will see how greatly we can reduce the suffering to come for a great many people. Does your power not come with the duty to ensure these solutions are built?

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A Note From the Editor According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) if all emissions were to stop tomorrow, we could limit climate change to around 1.5° C more than preindustrial levels. 1.5 °C is not a small amount. At 1.5 °C we could see sea level rises of up to 48 cm by 2100, and 59cm by 2300. This would put over 800 million people at risk and damage hundreds of cities. Those on the east coast of America are some of the most vulnerable, including New York and Miami. Bangkok and Shanghai are also at risk, as are the highly populated cities of Kolkata, Mumbai and Dhaka. At the same time droughts are likely to become two months longer, and 132.5 million more people will be at risk of drought. More people than ever will be exposed to food poverty and tropical diseases. There is a belief that if we can only stay at + 1.5 °C nothing will change but this is not the case. The situation would be bad if we were to stop emissions tomorrow. But we won’t stop emissions tomorrow. Today, the general consensus is that we will not hit 1.5 °C, and that instead that we will double it. By mediating the predicted impact of current climate policies, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has found that we are likely to hit +2.9 °C by 2100. Finding predictions for a world 'plus three degrees' is difficult, but the bottom line is clear. It is unlikely to be good. Indeed, imagining how the world will work 'plus three degrees' sometimes feels like world-building for an apocalypse novel. With that kind of increase, average sea levels could rise three feet by 2100 according to the IPCC. This would mean the displacement of 750 million people and iconic cities either submerged or with a landscape defined by flood defences. It's hard to imagine life going on with the Olympic stadium in Rio submerged, Shanghai and Miami evacuated and The Hague a submerged tourist attraction, the human rights court operating at full-capacity somewhere higher, stetched to capacity as refugees flee their homes. Flooding is only one of the issues the world faces looking out at this century, and indeed this millennium, but the reports from scientific communities are not Science-Fiction or Dystopia.


For climate activists, or even just those of us who trust scientists, humanity's ability to pretend that none of this will come to pass can be frustrating, but I also think it speaks to one of the best traits that humans possess. As a whole we seem immune to fatalism. We have never been able to accept our own demise. In the last year alone, our species created a vaccine in only 10 months from disease discovery. This has been described as the modern equivalent of putting a man on the moon. Then there’s the fact that we really did put a man on the moon. Throughout all of history we’ve shown an incredible propensity for solving whatever problem has been placed before us; Archimedes’ enclosed screw helped lift river water onto the fields of Egypt, Charles Townshend invented the Norfolk crop rotation to solve the need for fallow fields, the Sumerians, Chinese and Mayans all individually created writing allowing for mass and long distance communication, and multiple cultures developed currency to allow cooperation among peoples with different cultural and religious beliefs. In each case, these solutions were so ingenious as to seemingly come out of nowhere. There is a subtle difference, however. If Archimedes had failed ,while it would have spelled disaster for the Egyptians, it would hardly have impacted the Chinese or MesoAmericans. If Charles Townshend hadn’t invented the Norfolk system, given enough time someone else likely would have. This time, our human ingenuity is on a strict timer and the stakes are global. I would suggest therefore a different approach to the problems which are facing us. We need to embrace the luxury of forewarning scientists have given us, and focus our best and brightest on creating adaption strategies now. We need to lay the groundwork for the coming changes. We need to look at not just the problems facing us currently, but those we know will come soon. We need to find solutions… but then again we're pretty good at that. Mitigation is vital, but we need to accept that this is no longer an 'either/or' situation. Change is coming whether we prepare for it or not. The submissions in this volume come from students. We’re putting our voices together to try to address some of the challenges we know will come. I hope it will inspire you, who has the capacity to create change in a way we can only dream of, to do the same. Isobel Thomas-Horton Editor-in-Chief

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Table of Contents 10

The Future of Energy Storage Thomas Wallace, studying Physics with Astrophysics at Glasgow University, discuses the importance of getting energy storage right... and how we might do just that. Complicated stuff, but this essay will help you sort your Lithium Ion batteries from your hydrogen storage. Wallace provides an entertaining introduction to one of the most important issues we need to tackle, and one which will certainly be a hot spot for innovation in a warmer world.

20 An Interview with... Dr Tilly Collins Imperial College London’s Dr Tilly Collins imagines what future cities might look like and how insects might feature in our lives. As we move to adapt to climate issues, what kind of inspiration can we take from our six-legged friends? How would you feel living in a house inspired by them… and how would you feel having them on your table?


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The Future of Infectious Diseases Moving to global health, Kitty Attwood discusses why we might be more susceptible to disease in a warmer world. Tackling a variety of scenarios, this essay provides the ideal introduction to a topic that has been on all our minds over the past year. We recommend you get your hand sanitizer out before reading this one!

35 The Future of Floating Solar Panel Technology Alistair Williams and Michael Tye from Lancaster University tackle a question we’ve all had at one point or another watching the sun sparkling on the sea. Could we capture that energy to power our lives? And what would the drawbacks be if we could? This essay suggests a plausible scenario for weaning ourselves off of fossil fuels, something we know we need to do. Energy pours from the sky every day. This piece is a good introduction to how we can best utilise it.

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An Interview with... Sharable's Tom Llewellyn Shareable is one of the most interesting non-profit content creators out there today. They focus on the power people like you and I have. We talk to one of their executive producers, Tom Llewellyn, about how his work documenting collective action after disasters has impacted his view of the world. We discuss the practical things you can do today to help prepare your community for the coming changes… and even find some hope in a World + 3 degrees.

Urban Scotland Plus 3 Degrees

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Scotland’s cities have come a long way from their industrial past. Indeed last year 90% of our energy came from renewables. Yet there are still areas we need to improve on. Tackling three key areas of development Rhys Mawby discusses how Scotland’s infrastructure is likely to change. Focusing specifically on urban life here in Scotland, he imagines what kind of homes we might live in, and what kind of school bus might transport our children to school. Applicable to more than just Scotland, this essay provides insight to what options are open to nations where sunshine is never guaranteed.

The Lurking Dangers of Space Pollution

Zoe Harvey, a Physics and Astrophysics student from the University of Glasgow, introduces us to a topic many of us never even knew was an issue. Pollution comes in all forms, but one of the most dangerous to our modern way of life is all that we launch into space. Harvey paints space as a wild frontier, not yet sufficiently under the thumb of the law. How can we protect our communications satellites amongst all the detritus up there? Whether you hero worship Elon Musk or are a complete luddite, this is a topic we all need to know more about.

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THE FUTURE OF ENERGY STORAGE Thomas Wallace This article will discuss what is probably the most quietly exciting revolution our society will see in the coming decades. Following such a bold statement you might be understandably concerned that this article and its title are unrelated. They are not.

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s our world becomes hotter and less "A common misconception hospitable, we must adapt almost every aspect of our modern lives, is that we just need to build and one such area is energy infrastructure. more and more renewable The changes I discuss will likely happen generators until the need even if a climate catastrophe is avoided (and for fossil fuels disappears." will likely have played a role in preventing it), but will be especially important if not. our houselights. This article discusses which technologies Of course, not all of this energy comes from we have today, where we are going and coal, oil, or natural gas plants: much effort what our potential future might look like. has been made to construct vast wind, solar and tidal arrays. A common misconception Hopefully by the end you will see my vision is that we just need to build more and more for where our infrastructure will be, in a renewable generators until the need for fossil fuels disappears. world plus 3 °C. Energy storage is a new frontier of emerging technologies. It will play a vital role in our renewable future, helping us overcome some of the largest roadblocks to a carbon neutral society. Before diving off into the realm of speculation, it’s important to recognize where we are today. A vast majority of our energy use is from the grid [1]. Fossil fuels are burned in faraway power plants producing the electricity for our modern lifestyle, from our hospitals to

With headlines like ‘Scotland produces enough wind energy to power 2 Scotlands’ [2] you might reasonably think we are close and that this solution is viable. Unfortunately, there are some flaws: It isn’t always windy and there aren’t two Scotlands. Sometimes we have too little energy and sometimes we have too much, so the obvious solution is to store the energy when we have a surplus, and save it until


designed for electric vehicle use. This has left technologies in the far larger field of grid storage relatively under-discussed.

we have a deficit! This is where energy storage comes in. Today our energy demand has a minimum that must always be fulfilled, called the ‘baseload energy’. This is currently provided by fossil fuels which can have their output easily controlled and regulated to secure this baseload. Today’s renewable energies suffer from a degree of variation in power output, which means they aren’t capable of always ensuring that this minimum energy requirement is met. However, with energy storage we would be able to regulate renewable outputs. With highly predictable generators like tidal arrays we could allow renewable energy generation to finally replace fossil fuels entirely.

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nother major polluter are our road vehicles, which account for nearly 25% of Europe’s emissions [1]. With the recent rise in electric vehicles it’s easy to predict that electric travel will be the way of the future. Unfortunately, today’s batteries are ill suited for these tasks. Interestingly, one of the most profitable areas for battery technology today is electric vehicles, which has naturally led to a large focus on batteries

Most modern batteries are lithium ion batteries. These power everything: pacemakers, phones and even electric cars. Currently we are producing lithium batteries at an astonishing rate; the Tesla Gigafactory is producing lithium cells as fast as a machine gun and we are seeing an exponential expansion in production across the globe [3]. Lithium batteries are usually quite small, and in order to achieve the capabilities of one large battery these small cells must be closely packed together. This tight packing of batteries has some serious pitfalls. Lithium battery packs are prone to thermal runaway where the batteries become exponentially hotter,

[1] Greenhouse gas emission statistics – emission inventories, 2020, p.4 [2] Nield, David (2019) ‘Scotland Is Now Generating So Much Wind Energy, It Could Power Two Scotlands’ Science Alert [online]. Available at: https://www.google.com/amp/s/ www.sciencealert.com/scotland-s-windturbines-are-now-generatingdouble-what-itsresidents-need/amp (accessed September 2020) [3] Benchmark Minerals (2019) EV Battery Arms Race Enters New Gear With 115 Megafactories, Europe Sees Most Rapid Growth, [online]. Available at: https://www.benchmarkminerals. com/ev-battery-armsrace-enters-new-gearwith-115-megafactories-europe-sees-mostrapid-growth/ (accessed September 2020) [4] Renews.biz, DNV GL pinpoints South Korea battery fire cause [online]. Available at: https://renews.biz/56110/dnv-gl-pinpointssouth-korea-battery-fire-cause/ (accessed September 2020)

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eventually resulting in deadly fires as the toxic elements of the battery burn.

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irst, we will look at the gargantuan task that is grid level energy storage. Two very exciting solutions are redox flow batteries and hydrogen fuel cells. Redox In doing so they create their own oxidiser, flow batteries use two large containers of further fuelling the fire and making them liquid to store electrical charge. Unlike a notoriously difficult to quell. There have lot of the technologies I will be discussing, already been reports of serious battery these are available commercially and are fires from large instillations in South not just lab batteries or prototypes. Korea known as Firegate [4]. On an aircraft the prospect of an uncontrollable lithium fire is of serious concern. This means temperature regulation is vital for modern batteries, but it could prove too expensive or even impossible, limiting the adoption of energy storage.

“To put it simply: Lithium batteries are dangerous, short lived and incapable of meeting all of our needs.”

There are less deadly problems, of course. You might have noticed that your phone’s battery gets continually worse as time goes on, this is called the degradation of the battery and it occurs on largerscale devices than just your smart phone. This can lead to mass replacements or expansions in order to maintain a lithium battery facility’s capability. The final major problem with the technology is that the weight of the batteries makes them useless for large vehicles or aircraft. To put it simply: Lithium batteries are dangerous, short lived and incapable of meeting all of our needs. So now that I have so pessimistically belittled today’s solutions, I think it’s important to speculate on how our energy future might look.

A redox flow battery’s tanks of liquid, unlike lithium, can be scaled up incredibly easily without the need for multiple smaller batteries. More liquid means more energy can be stored. This ease of scaling makes them ideal for small industrial centres who want some energy independence, or even for large city projects as we are seeing them used today [5]. Another brilliant factor is that the liquids involved are not flammable (though they can be harmful) so there are less safety concerns than with today’s installations. After the large public outcry of Firegate it’s easy to see why these batteries are gaining popularity in East Asia. In China we are beginning to see these batteries being constructed in Shanghai and Dalian, and, if they are successful, they will most likely become the new standard there.

[5] Service, R. F. (2018) New Generation of ‘Flow batteries’ Could Eventually Sustain A Grid Powered By The Sun And Wind, Science [online]. Available at: https://www. sciencemag.org/news/2018/10/newgenerationflow-batteries-could-eventually-sustaingrid-powered-sun-and-wind# (accessed August2020) [6] Ball, M. Weeda, M. (2015) The Hydrogen Economy- Vision or reality?, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 40(25) pp. 79037919


" Despite their many benefits (only some of which I have touched upon), they are not gaining traction. This seems to be the result of two large issues." Another major improvement from lithium is that the batteries do not suffer from the same levels of degradation; once a redox flow battery is built it will be functional for far longer than a lithium array.

sitting around 70%. There is room for improvement but it is understandable that companies and governments will want the most efficient battery, even if lithium is less efficient in the long term.

Despite this, I think we will see these problems give way with time. A large What interested me most about redox flow, vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB), has however, is that they seem to be relatively been operational in Hokkaido, Japan, since unpopular. Despite their many benefits 2015 with positive reports, likely aiding the (only some of which I have touched upon), greater adoption in East Asia. There is also they are not gaining traction. a VRFB being constructed as a showcase in the Oxford Energy Super Hub allowing a demonstration of the technology for This seems to be the result of two large Europe and North America. issues.

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irstly, redox flow batteries are relatively unknown; people are not willing to invest huge amounts of money into a battery technology which has not proved itself as much as the competing lithium batteries. They also cost more to run (in the short term), making them unpopular for those hoping for the largest return in the shortest amount of time. This cost comes from the “round-trip efficiency” - What percentage of energy used to charge the battery will be returned.

Vanadium, one of the most promising elements for redox flow batteries, is currently listed as a critical material by the EU. Vanadium can be used in both the positive and negative liquid solutions making it ideal for this type of battery. It also has the bonus of being easily recycled, which helps reduce the amount of mining required for batteries, a problem I will touch on at the end. The EU themselves are investing in organic flow battery research which hopes to replace vanadium as the king of flow tech.

For lithium round-trip efficiency is ~80% Organic batteries would allow for far while modern redox flow batteries are cheaper installations that don’t rely on

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heavy metals which have to be mined causing untold environmental damage. In my opinion, come 2050 we will find it hard to believe we ever had an energy storage system which didn’t rely, in part, on flow tech batteries.

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low tech isn’t the only possible solution. Despite sounding more like science fiction, we are finally beginning to see advancements in hydrogen energy technology [6]. By using surplus energy to extract hydrogen from water, we can then transport or store the hydrogen until it is needed. It can then be

recombined with oxygen in a hydrogen fuel cell resulting in an electrical output with the only by-product being water. After the hydrogen has been extracted it presents us with an incredibly unique flexibility which is otherwise unseen


Photo from NASA

rom the Suomi National Polarorbiting Partnership satellite. The image above features London and the southern half of Great Britain (and other parts of Europe) as it appeared in March of 2012. NASA COMMONS


in electricity storage. We can move the hydrogen as a liquid or a gas in pipelines for large scale infrastructure, or we can move it in smaller trucks and lorries where a pipeline is ineffective or damaging. The end use can be anything. Hydrogen can be stored at scale for large grids or it can be transported in small amounts to give remote communities a renewable fuel source. It can even be used in electric vehicles, big or small. Throughout my research into energy storage the key rule of thumb was “Flexibility is king”. Hydrogen is by far the most flexible alternative to fossil fuels that we have today. It is hard to truly convey just how revolutionary this could be from a renewable energy standpoint. Hydrogen could very well be the silver bullet to many of the jobs which were once the sole domain of fossil fuels. Hydrogen can power the larger vehicles that lithium is simply incapable of: buses, trains and even aircraft. Public transport vehicles are unique in that they all refuel at the same central depot; this makes it an ideal place for hydrogen to shine and be tested fully, as there’s no need to install a hydrogen pump in every petrol station. We already see many hydrogen public transport options spring up across the world. In aviation we see hydrogen as the only tech capable of replacing today’s kerosene powered jets. There are estimates that by 2035 we could have short to medium range flights powered by hydrogen, and nearly 40% of Europe’s aviation fleet could be hydrogen powered by 2050 [7]. It is hard to overstate how important it is that hydrogen

(and seemingly hydrogen alone) is capable of replacing fossil fuels for large vehicles. Hydrogen is also well suited for grid storage and as adoption of hydrogen tech in transport increases, we will likely see it compliment other large storage like redox flow batteries [8]. There are still problems. Hydrogen is very expensive as of right now and will likely remain so until sufficient refuelling and production infrastructure is built. However, no company will build infrastructure for a fuel that no one uses, and no one will use a fuel that is too expensive due to lack of infrastructure.This is a classic chicken and egg problem. Countries like Germany has recognised this

[7] Fuel Cells and Hydrogen (2020) New Study: Hydrogen-Powered Aviation. Preparing For Take-Off [online]. Available at: https://www. fch.europa.eu/news/new-study-hydrogenpowered-aviationpreparing-take (Accessed: August 2020) [8] Neef, H.J. (2008) International overview of Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Research, Energy, 34(3) pp. 327-333 [9] Kim, T. Et al. (2019) Lithium-Ion Batteries: Outlook On Present, Future, and Hybridized Technologies, Journal of Materials Chemistry A, (7), pp. 2942-2964 [10] Goodenough, J. B. (2017) Alternative Strategy For A Safe Rechargeable Battery, Energy & Environmental Science, (10), pp. 331-336 [11] Xia, S. Et al. (2019) Practical Challenges and Future Perspectives of All-Solid-State Lithium-Metal Batteries, Chem, 5(4), pp. 753785


and are making moves to combat it by setting forth a plan to build the infrastructure with all relevant parties involved. The approach is to build refuelling stations in large cities and transport routes, then to move on to the suburbs and then finally the rural areas. As steps are taken to promote hydrogen use its benefits will become more and more apparent. There are still technological improvements to be made for hydrogen to be truly viable (such as improving the current 40% roundtrip efficiency). I think it is a likely scenario that our future will consist of large organic or vanadium redox flow batteries complimented by large scale hydrogen storage as well as large hydrogen vehicles slowly replacing our modern technology. This vision is merely speculation, well supported and well researched speculation, but speculation none the less and all prophecies should be taken with a grain of salt, especially when they try to predict the future beyond a decade as I am doing so confidently right now. Despite this I hope you are beginning to see where our energy storage is heading.

not they are useful today (which they most definitely are), but rather whether or not they have a future. As I discussed at the beginning, lithium batteries have many faults, but unlike redox flow and hydrogen they have one huge, non-technological, advantage. We are producing them today. When we improve one aspect of a lithium battery, we can easily improve the corresponding factor in our production chain. It is easier to change one part of an assembly line than it is to build a new factory.

“As important as I think energy storage is to our battle against climate change, we must also weigh the environmental cost of mining the necessary materials to maintain this “renewable” future.”

I think it would be fair to say that so far, I have been giving lithium ion batteries an unreasonably hard time. They are, after all, one of the important reasons we even have some of the renewable technologies we have today, and in many fields are a stepping stone to more suitable technologies.

So, what improvements are being made? There are three important components to modern lithium batteries; two opposing metal plates (the cathode and anode), and a liquid electrolyte which sits between them, allowing batteries to store and discharge energy. By changing the chemical composition of the cathode and anode we can change the properties of the battery. We can make it hold charge for longer, or store more energy, but this is a fine balancing act. There are some very promising changes under research today. Two of the more significant examples being lithiumSulphur and lithium-air batteries [9]. In essence these will be very similar to today’s batteries, but with different chemical makeups that allow batteries to hold far more energy for far longer periods of time.

However, the question is not whether or

We are also seeing a much more exciting

There are, however, some final gaps. To fill these in we must go down another level and focus on personal electric vehicles and smaller batteries where we will return to lithium.

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change in the battery’s electrolyte, changing it from a liquid to a solid. This might sound like a minor change but the potential benefits are huge [10][11]. So-called solidstate batteries can work in a far higher range of temperatures than their liquid counterparts, as well as being able to store huge quantities of energy in a short amount of time. We are seeing extraordinary claims such as a solidstate battery car travelling 500 miles from a minute’s charge and a smartphone being usable for 5 days. These solid-state batteries are, in my mind, the eventual successor of lithium batteries, capable of the smaller battery work which hydrogen and flow batteries are physically incapable. Hydrogen might be well suited for personal electric vehicles, but there is already far greater infrastructure in place for lithium battery electric vehicles, which might give solid-state powered vehicles the upper hand. Toyota were planning on showcasing their new solid-state prototype this year during the Tokyo Olympics, though for reasons I’m sure you’re far too familiar with, we will likely be waiting a little longer.

“We may even see the expansion of extraterrestrial mining which allows us to damage asteroids in space rather than our planet and ecosystem.” Shrinking our view down once again, they will likely replace batteries in our phones, tablets and laptops. Going even further down to our smallest batteries today we find that solid-state batteries can act as a smaller alternative to today’s lithium

batteries. They could be used in a network of remote sensors in a house, factory or set of large vehicles (known as an Internet of Things), or even used such as pacemakers, allowing medical technology to be less invasive and more accurately implanted. With this final piece we can see the puzzle of our future energy storage infrastructure fall into place. On the smallest of scales solid-state batteries will replace today’s lithium batteries. In the personal electric vehicles market, we will see hydrogen and solid-state batteries replace today’s fossil fuel and lithium batteries as a safer and greener alternative. Hydrogen will most definitely serve larger and industrial vehicles and finally energy generated by renewable sources will be stored either as hydrogen or in large redox flow batteries, allowing renewable sources to replace fossil fuels as the foundation for our energy demand.

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here is one final issue I promised I would touch on, mining. Throughout this report I have talked a lot about different batteries and thrown out names of various materials and heavy metals. As important as I think energy storage is to our battle against climate change, we must also weigh the environmental cost of mining the necessary materials to maintain this “renewable” future. For example, lithium batteries use lithium, nickel, and cobalt, while redox flow batteries commonly use vanadium or iron, and hydrogen-based batteries use many rare materials in their fuel cells and electrolysers. All mining has huge environmental costs, from greenhouse gas emissions to toxic air pollution and


the destruction of natural habitats. Cobalt also has huge ethical issues attached as child labour is commonly used to extract the rare metal. Much focus has been put on reducing or eliminating the use of cobalt, but as of today this is still a challenge.

to mining and battery production, I think new energy storage is an important and necessary step. Climate action is the aggregate of thousands of small steps towards a more renewable future, energy storage is but one of these necessary and important advances. It will be a difficult balancing act between the environmental From an environmental view, lithium- costs of continuing the damaging practices ion batteries are incredibly difficult and of today and the potential damage of expensive to recycle, and due to their poor producing these new solutions. degradation can contribute more and more to our evergrowing toxic waste. On the brighter side, the vanadium in redox flow Despite this I believe that we, as batteries can be easily recycled through the communities, countries and a united same processes used in the initial refining planet are capable of making these difficult of the metal, giving it a second life and decisions, and that even if the world reaches reducing the rate at which we need to mine 3 °C warmer our energy infrastructure will the material. be almost unrecognisable from today’s, allowing the climate to begin to restore itself. Beyond vanadium, if research into organic flow batteries proves successful, we may likely have an almost entirely carbon Thanks to Bushveld Energy and Invinity neutral method of storing large amounts of for their input on redox flow batteries, energy. We may even see the expansion of Ilika for their input on Solid State extra-terrestrial mining which allows us to Batteries, and Benchmark Minerals and damage asteroids in space rather than our Rho Motion for their input on Lithium planet and ecosystem. batteries and electric vehicles. The decision on whether or not to use a battery as a solution in our future energy infrastructure needs to not just look at the technical capabilities of the batteries and their suitability for the role, but also how “green” they are. You have likely heard it is more environmentally damaging to buy a new electric car than to purchase a used nonelectric car due to the carbon footprint associated with production. Similarly, we must ask if it is more environmentally damaging to continue with the solutions we have today or to ramp up the production of these “renewable” solutions. Despite the environmental issues related

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AN INTERVIEW WITH DR TILLY COLLINS Dr Tilly Collins is a senior academic at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London. This interview was conducted in the Autumn of 2020. My name is Tilly Collins, and I'm a senior fellow in the centre for environmental policy at Imperial College London.

cooling in urban areas, and it helps to absorb pollution.

It's estimated that by 2050, there'll be 2.4 Thank you very much for coming. We're billion more people living in cities. Do you hoping to be quite positive and solution think that the role of green spaces is going seeking as a publication. I know that to evolve or that those things are going to you've looked at a range of ways of making become more and more important as cities future better both through your work scale up? with malaria, and through your work with alternative protein sources like insects. But your other interest is advocating for They're going to become more and more the production and maintenance of urban important. And we know that although green spaces. Could you just explain what mega cities are growing, as the world urban green spaces are and why they're so warms, we are going to have to shift parts important? of many of our cities. Many are coastal cities, and they can’t be adequately protected. So there will be a movement Urban green spaces are many things. from these big cities, perhaps into smaller They can be people's gardens, parks, and cities. The real interest in city design at the even trees on the street. But we do know moment is in new, smaller cities, further that urban green spaces do many, many away from the coast. These cities can good things for us. Urban green spaces become the most incredibly integrated contribute to people's positive mental green spaces. health. For instance people get better much sooner if they have a green view So they would be designed with green from a hospital. spaces in mind, rather than squeezing We know that green space is good for us, them in as an after thought? but it's not just good for us, it's also good for the management of our cities. Having green areas helps water absorption, so we Absolutely. don't end up overwhelming our sewage and drainage systems. It helps to provide


What about solutions for the cities we’re used to now, which have been built up slowly and generally without green space as a huge priority? Retrofitting green space is critical. We have a lot of opportunity, even within our built up cities for integrating green spaces, whether that’s on roofs, with green walls, or by paying much more attention to the street plan. As we move into an era where owning individual vehicles for personal use seems to be declining, we have a real opportunity to reclaim a lot of street space as green space. There are incredible plans for this in some cities around the world. The Isle of Manhattan for instance has advanced planning for reclaiming a lot of the street space from cars and reintegrating that into cycle routes and greenery.

to provide safe green spaces for everyone. And they want to do that by 2030. Do you think that's a bit overly optimistic? I would encourage them towards that. I mean, it is optimistic, but we are in this era of great change and there's a lot to be optimistic about. We are understanding much more clearly the human value of urban green space, and the value of the social exchange and connectivity of communities, which make people happier, and when people are happier, they have better health outcomes in every single way. If there was like one main step that you could force every government to do to help get to that Sustainable Development Goal, what would it be? I think understanding the range of benefits that green spaces provide, both economic, social and in health outcomes, would make governments acknowledge how important they are, and then promote that integration throughout cities.

Most of the elements you’ve mentioned around green spaces are not economic or climate-based, though those arguments exist, but the key thing seems to be social aspects. Do you think that there are social ramifications to poorer areas having less The key message to all governments is that access to these kinds of spaces? the range of benefits that green spaces in urban areas provide is well worth the initial cost of providing them and the People need green space in which to meet maintenance costs associated with them, and one of the big challenges is designing as the spread of their benefits across these greens spaces so that people do feel mental health and physical health and safe and welcome in them. They need to urban maintenance are so great. The net provide both the ecosystem services that benefits are huge. we require, and this safe social space. So, including local communities and paying So I was actually also going to ask about attention to the design of that space, your background in entomology and how especially in poorer areas where there may you think changed how you looked at be less money to spend, is critical. this problem. Do you think it has had any effect? Or are they two separate passions? What you said there about safe spaces there is interesting, because I think one of the UN Sustainable Development Goals is Entomology and working in an urban

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university took me into urban green spaces. We started looking at insect diversity in urban green spaces through student projects and because I wanted people to be able to do field work even though they're in the city. This took me to a greater understanding of urban green space and the multiple values of it, the multiple values of it. Entomology essentially brought me to a much better understanding of that space. I will freely admit that I don't know very much about ants, but I know that they have city-like things, which can cover hundreds of acres, and they have to deal with food distribution and dealing with water overflow and heat distribution. Do you think there's anything that we can take from insects in general, to try and apply to our own architecture? Oh, yes, there are really, really interesting features in insect architecture. For instance, termite mounds are phenomenally sophisticated, and many have incredible passive ventilation systems. Some species' mounds are cleverly shaped and angled North-South so that in the heat of the day, they have minimal contact with the sun along their narrower surface, and then in the cooler parts of the day, the sun moves on to their broader sides. So they manage heat in this really passive way. There are many things we can learn from the world of insects that could reduce the energy we need to run our buildings.

from biomimicry systems, they're not only looking at insects, they're looking at plants as well, for example how the plants adapt to the circumstances. There's really, really interesting work coming out of that and many of the nature inspired shapes are beautiful too! So the last question then, is if we do see this 3 degree warming, what kind of beneficial changes could we see? Could there be any kind of silver-lining? Possibly growing wine in Scotland? (laughs). Actually, there are people doing this, but currently they're kind of doing it to prove a point, but there may be a future promise. Possibly not the new Champagne region. I have a PhD student, and several Msc students looking at how climate change may influence this industry. In the UK, it’s going to be a big change for us in terms of what we can grow. Grape vines, for example, are more productive socially as wineries employ more people per hectare than many other agricultural crops. They're also often associated with rural tourism, and thus with providing other people access to land. Perennial tree crops, like grape vines can also be managed for greater biodiversity, which is exciting.

But in answer to that initial question, I I guess that's going to become more think that humans are eternally adaptable, important as we build these new cities and I would hope that we can find some away from the coasts. positives. I think one of the positives will be that we are forced to understand the world we live in much better, and that a Yes. There are architects who are learning wider understanding and respect for the


world we live in will emerge from the rapid and enforced adaptation we will have to go through. I would encourage them towards that. I mean, it is it's I am optimistic that this era of great change will produce the policies and technologies that will enable us to give space to nature and to become a sustainable species on this planet.

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THE FUTURE OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Photo by Yaroslav Danylchenko from Pexels

Kitty Attwood asks how the nature of infectious diseases will change with 3ºC of global warming.

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ur current global situation is impossible to ignore. The human population appears more vulnerable than ever before; not only to the impending effects of climate change but also in light of the current COVID-19 pandemic. These two seemingly unconnected realities

are in fact more closely associated than they first appear. This poses both challenges and opportunities by creating a link between reducing the effects of climate change and reducing the effects of infectious diseases for human populations. The challenge we are facing is that the predicted effects of


three degrees of global warming, including changes to precipitation, atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns, will alter the global incidence prevalence of infectious diseases. This presents us with a global public health crisis as the distribution and seasonality of existing infectious diseases change in response to these factors around the world. In addition to the direct effect of climate change on infectious diseases, the societal processes of over-consumption and exploitation that threaten to drive this level of global warming will also influence global disease risk. As agriculture, forestry and other factors account for around a quarter of global emissions (IPCC “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report” 45), the processes of agricultural intensification and deforestation that encourage disease emergence are inextricably linked to climate change.

IPCC Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC [2014]: p. 151

2014, which confirmed that the predicted temperature and rainfall changes associated with climate change will alter the spread of infectious diseases (IPCC “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report” 69).

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limate change can affect infectious diseases in different ways, depending on the type of transmission. Vectorborne diseases (those that arise due to contact with a vector organisation, such as a mosquito), for example, are expected to change in geographical distribution and seasonality as changing climatic conditions alter the domains of vector species. Changes to precipitation patterns as well as snow and It is therefore essential to engage in debates ice cover are also expected to alter water concerning changing global disease risks quality, potentially leading to changes to and the public health measures that can water-borne diseases. Both of these factors be put in place to mitigate against both present particular challenges for vulnerable epidemics and pandemics like COVID-19. populations (ibid.). The IPCC’s more recent he evidence for climate-associated 1.5ºC report (IPCC “Global Warming of disease risk is clear: the International 1.5°C” 39) confirms that there is strong Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) evidence that these changes are already published their Fifth Assessment Report in happening: in Canada, there have been increased cases of Lyme disease, which is “In addition to the direct transmitted by tick bites (Smith et al. 727) and northern Europe has seen an increase effect of climate change in Vibrio emergence — a bacterial infection on infectious diseases, linked to ocean temperatures (Smith et al.

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the societal processes of over-consumption and exploitation that threaten to drive this level of global warming will also influence global disease risk.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change. It was created to promote climate mitigation and adaption options.

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725). The report concluded with “very high confidence” that every additional degree of warming would increase the magnitude of these changes (IPCC “Global Warming of 1.5°C" 39). Although this warming could lead to the reduction of disease incidence in some areas, the potential for outbreaks of infectious diseases such as malaria, West Nile virus or dengue fever in areas that do not have the appropriate public health infrastructure is severe.

" Taking into account future population growth, the study found that warming in line with the IPCC’s worstcase climate scenario (an average of 4.22ºC warming by 2080) would see 75.9 million additional people at risk of malaria in Eastern and Southern Africa by 2080." Vector-borne diseases are particularly dependent on climatic conditions because the incidence of the disease (the rate of new case outbreaks in a population) is affected by the climate-sensitive factors of habitat suitability, abundance, distribution, activity and reproduction rates of the vector (Semenza and Menne 364). Transmission of malaria, for example, is dependent on the vector (the Anopheles mosquito) as well as the plasmodium parasite, which is the organism responsible for the infection in both mosquitoes and human hosts. A study that assessed malaria transmission suitability across different IPCC climate change possibilities found geographic shifts across all future climate scenarios, both in areas where cases of malaria are endemic

(constant) and only seasonal (Ryan et al. 1). Taking into account future population growth, the study found that warming in line with the IPCC’s worst-case climate scenario (an average of 4.22ºC warming by 2080) would see 75.9 million additional people at risk of malaria in Eastern and Southern Africa by 2080 (ibid.). Even in a future with only 2.75ºC of warming by 2080, there would be emerging areas of endemic suitability for the Anopheles mosquito — many of these being in areas that currently have a low malaria risk status (Ryan et al. 9). This risks overwhelming countries that have populations with low immunity and poor investment in malaria prevention strategies such as treatment, education and bite-prevention resources. The reality is that the shifting suitability for malaria transmission will disproportionately affect economically vulnerable countries, because of socioeconomic factors such as building regulations, land-use and health care facilities that influence the risk of an epidemic (Semenza and Menne 368).


In Europe and North America, changes to the nature of vector-borne diseases are already being witnessed; since the 1980s, the prevalence of tick-borne diseases has increased due to the trend of longer summers and shorter winters (Semenza and Menne 368). Since increased temperature accelerates the development cycle, egg production and population density of ticks, climate models that predict longer, drier summers will correspond to a northward shift in tick-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (ibid.). However, vector-borne diseases are not the only type of infection that is being affected by climate change; the incidence and distribution of food-borne diseases are also changing. In the Baltic sea, rising sea surface temperatures are leading to the aforementioned increased vibrio emergence — a bacteria that causes gastroenteritis through contaminated seafood (Ebi et al. 5). Water-borne diseases will be similarly effected because outbreaks of diseases such as Cholera are also associated with water temperature (Semenza and Menne 370). Therefore, the current seasonal shifts of such diseases to higher latitudes in warmer months may extend in duration and extent in the future (ibid.). The changes that will occur to existing infectious diseases are unfortunately only half of the problem; climate change and the associated process of land-use change will also alter disease emergence. Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are infections that newly appear in a population (Morse 7). Disease emergence is linked to ecological and demographic factors that promote human contact with previously unknown microbes, often via wildlife — a key example of this being the assumed origin of COVID-19: a wet market in Wuhan that sold wild animals and their meat (Li

et al. 1202). The wildlife trade increases human contact with new pathogens via hunters, traders and consumers, whether for meat in countries such as China (where the wildlife trade is a $20 billion industry that employs around 15 million people), or for exotic pet industries in countries like the US (Dobson et al. 379). The risks of these industries are exacerbated by the lack of regulations and enforcement in many countries, causing animals to be kept in poor conditions that facilitate the spread of disease, and resulting in lack of health IPCC Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., et al. (eds.)]. In Press. [2018]. Smith, K.R., et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge [2014] pp. 709-754. Ryan, Sadie; Lippi, Catherine; Zermoglio, Fernanda. “Shifting Transmission Risk for Malaria in Africa with Climate Change: A Framework for Planning and Intervention.” Malaria Journal 19.1 [2020]: 170. Web. Semenza, Jan and Menne, Bettina. “Climate change and infectious diseases in Europe.” The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 9.6 [2009] pp. 365–375. Ebi, Kristie L., Nicholas H. Ogden, Jan C. Semenza, and Alistair Woodward. “Detecting and Attributing Health Burdens to Climate Change.” Environmental Health Perspectives 125.8 [2017]: 085004. Web. Morse, S. S. “Factors in the Emergence of Infectious Diseases.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 1.1 [1995]: pp. 7-15. Web. Li, Qun; et al. “Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia.” The New England Journal of Medicine. 382.13 [2020] pp. 1199–1207.

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screening during import (ibid.). These interactions that are central to wildlife industries can have significant effects; human interaction with wildlife accounts for three-quarters of zoonotic emerging diseases (Loh et al. 432). Zoonotic diseases themselves (those passed to humans from animals) account for around two-thirds of all emerging infectious diseases (ibid.).

“The emergence of infectious diseases is thus related to social factors such as human demographics and behaviour, economic development, land-use, and international trade and commerce ” Another key factor that increases human contact with new pathogenic microbes is deforestation and the expansion of intensive agriculture — a major contributor to climate change. Since pathogen species (species that cause disease) follow the latitudinal trend of species richness, whereby there is greater diversity of species towards the equator, pathogen species richness is high where large areas of tropical rainforest are being deforested (Guégan et al. 5). Forest fragmentation increases the potential for pathogen ‘spillover’ into human systems due to the ‘edge effect’ where humans and their livestock come into contact with wildlife at the forest’s edge (Dobson et al. 379). This occurs as population growth and economic development drive settlements, agricultural activity and road networks further into forested land (ibid.). The frequency of outbreaks of infectious

diseases along forest edges is affected by the length of the forest perimeter (ibid.). If the level of forest conversion is around 50%, there is maximum opportunity for an outbreak to occur due to increased forest perimeter length (ibid.). The recent emerging diseases of Ebola, Nipah, SARS and COVID-19 emerged in human populations through these processes; specifically being transferred to humans as bats feed nearer to human populations due to habitat disruption (ibid.). This demonstrates how disease emergence increases as humans increase stresses upon natural ecosystems. The emergence of infectious diseases is thus related to social factors such as human demographics and behaviour, economic development, land-use, and international trade and commerce (Loh et al. 433). Many of these factors are intrinsically linked to climate change; deforestation alone is estimated to cause around 11% of global greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC “Global Warming of 1.5°C” 28). However, the link between EIDs and climate change is not limited to this correlative relationship; there is also a causal relationship between climatological variation and the ecological diversification of pathogen species (Hoberg and Brooks 2). Dobson, Andrew P, etal. “Ecology and Economics for Pandemic Prevention.” Science (New York, N.Y.) 369.6502 [2020]: pp. 379-381. Web. Loh, Elizabeth H; et al. “Targeting Transmission Pathways for Emerging Zoonotic Disease Surveillance and Control.” Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. 15.7 [2015] pp. 432–437. Guégan, Jean-François; et al.“Forests and emerging infectious diseases: unleashing the beast within.” Environmental Research Letters 15.8 [2020].


This image was marked with a CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 license.

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ew developments in the ecological understanding of pathogen and host relationships show how significantly climate change can open new opportunities for disease emergence. Previously, pathogens were thought to be limited in both their evolution and spread to new hosts due to their coevolutionary relationships with host species. A coevolutionary relationship involves the simultaneous evolution of two species, restricting both the evolution of the pathogen and its ability to spread due to the specificity of this development process, thus limiting the emergence of infectious diseases (Brooks et al. 1). Pathogens were thus thought to be highly specialised species that have unique requirements and can only thrive under specific conditions (Brooks et al. 2). The new understanding is that pathogen species are not as limited to their current host as previously thought; instead there exists a much wider range that the pathogen could occupy if given the opportunity (Hoberg and Brooks 4). This theory, called the Stockholm Paradigm, means that pathogens do not require an unusual mutation to extend to a new host. Instead, a pathogen simply requires an opportunity to do so. This new information is alarming because in an era of ecological transformation, the Co-evolution occurs when two or more species evolve alongside each other and so exert a selection pressure on the other. These reciprocal relationships may be predator/ prey (as for example a feedback loop of faster prey leading to faster predators leading to faster prey), but they can also be mutually beneficial and highly specialized. These mutualistic arrangements include the relationship between dairying ants and the aphids they ‘farm’, and most of the bacteria in your gut!

opportunities for pathogens to colonise new hosts are increasing. For example, evidence suggests that deforestation of closed forests in Central and West Africa created the opportunity for Ebola to move from its ‘natural host’ (fruit bats) to its new host (humans) along forest perimeters (Olivero et al. 1). Both the land-use change and direct climatic change expected to accompany global warming this century will only increase the potential opportunities for pathogens to occupy new hosts by altering global species distributions and ecosystem structures. This has the potential to be extremely destructive to biodiversity, human food systems and human health. The Stockholm Paradigm summarises how disease incidence is linked to our current global situation where the world is experiencing an unprecedented acceleration in population growth, landuse change, global connectivity and climate change. These changes are creating the perfect conditions for pathogens to diversify, rendering human populations extremely vulnerable to new infectious diseases. In response to this global health challenge, it is essential to both mitigate these risks by addressing their causes, and adapt to them by reducing the impact of pathogen diversification. Monitoring, detection, education and policy development are all essential functions to prevent infectious disease spread and manage an outbreak. Many of these processes are aided by technological developments; for example, monitoring and planning can be achieved using digital datasets, geospatial modelling and satellite data (Ebi et al. 7). The demand for integrated technologies to assess trends and identify risk areas for infectious disease outbreaks could justify the pooling of large-scale environmental and epidemiological datasets (Semenza and


“Although extensive monitoring systems would require significant investment, the cost of disease outbreaks is usually much higher than the cost of preventing them.” Menne 372). These datasets could then be used to identify vulnerable populations and inform effective responses using statistical analysis. The growth in technology enabling this kind of analysis shows that we are more prepared than ever before to both prevent and respond to disease risks. Although extensive monitoring systems would require significant investment, the cost of disease outbreaks is usually much higher than the cost of preventing them. This fact seems undeniable when the UK alone has experienced a decline in GDP three times greater than that of the 2008 global financial crisis during the onset of the coronavirus outbreak in April (ONS). In light of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic consequences, the long-term economic benefit of investing in infectious Hoberg, Eric P. P., and Brooks, Daniel R. R. “Evolution in Action: Climate Change, Biodiversity Dynamics and Emerging Infectious Disease.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences 370.1665 [2015]. Web. Brooks, Daniel R.; Hoberg, Eric P.; Boeger, Walter A. The Stockholm paradigm: climate change and emerging disease. Chicago. [2020]. Olivero, Jesús; Fa, John; Real, Raimundo; Márquez, Ana; Farfán, Miguel; Vargas, J.; Gaveau, David; Salim, Mohammad; Park, Douglas; Suter, Jamison; King, Shona; Leendertz, Siv; Sheil, Douglas; Nasi, Robert “Recent Loss of Closed Forests Is Associated with Ebola Virus Disease Outbreaks.” Sci Rep 7.1 [2017]: p. 14291. Web.

disease monitoring and prevention seems clear. Investing in infectious disease prevention will also bring further benefits by reducing deforestation, wildlife exploitation and minimising climate change impacts (Dobson et al. 380). For example, the estimated annual cost of programmes to reduce deforestation and create disease surveillance systems in high-risk areas is between $17-26 billion, whereas the global cost of the COVID-19 pandemic was estimated to lie between $8-16 trillion in July. However, the economic case for deforestation reduction is only part of the picture; such initiatives must consider the needs of the populations within the countries they are implemented. This is essential to avoid repeating the negative consequences that have arisen as a result of previous attempts to reduce deforestation. The UN’s attempt to reduce deforestation via the ‘REDD+’ project, for example, is thought to have increased violence, dispossessed native peoples from their land and primarily affected local farmers rather than large corporations (Friends of the Earth 21). In order to prevent this result, initiatives must consider the root causes of rainforest conversion and engage in a less top-down approach. Investment must also be directed towards further research, which can reveal more Deforestation accounts for 11% of carbon emissions, making it second only to the energy sector. The UN REDD+ program offers incentives for developing countries to reduce emissions from forested lands. The approach is results-based payments for results-based actions, and thus creates immediate financial value to protecting forests.

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effective ways to monitor and predict infectious disease spread. For example, a 2015 study assessed a database of emerging infectious diseases, classing each by the transmission pathway of the EID (whether airborne, vector-borne or so on) and the suspected driver of the EID (such as landuse or human demographics and behaviour) (Loh et al. 435). The study found that the transmission pathway of the disease was dependent on the suspected EID driver (ibid.). This is significant because the type of transmission pathway affects the response that is needed to reduce the spread of the disease; for example, as COVID-19 is transmitted via contact and aerosols, important safety measures include regular hand-washing and using masks. In contrast, responses to vector-borne diseases are focused on vector control, such as through environmental management and the use of mosquito nets in the case of mosquitoborne diseases.

" The same disease can follow different transmission pathways in different areas if the EID driver varies." Understanding the link between EID driver and transmission pathway can also aid prediction, based on the potential disease drivers that are prevalent in an area. Furthermore, the same disease can follow different transmission pathways in different areas if the EID driver varies. For example, in Malaysia, Nipah virus is primarily spread by direct human contact with pigs, as the disease driver is agricultural intensification causing fruit bats to feed on fruit plantations near pig farms (Loh et al. 435). In contrast, in Bangladesh, Nipah virus is principally

spread via food-borne transmission, specifically through the ingestion of fresh date palm sap that is contaminated by bat faeces (ibid.). This means that in Malaysia, effective Nipah virus control measures can focus on PPE and hand-washing, whereas food hygiene measures may be more effective in Bangladesh. Understanding the differences between EID drivers can thus enable a proactive rather than a reactive approach, which is essential for effective intervention. Investment and research are not the only methods for addressing the increasing incidence of infectious diseases. A comprehensive approach to infectious disease management requires extensive attitude shifts and changes to consumption patterns. Reducing meat consumption, eradicating animal cruelty and exploitation of natural habitats as well as placing restrictions on the wildlife trade are all critical. Key steps are already being taken— China has banned wild animal consumption since the outbreak of COVID-19—but greater funding and regulation is needed to enforce regulations (Dobson et al. 379). As with initiatives to reduce deforestation, efforts to reduce wild meat consumption must consider indigenous communities with diets that rely on wildlife protein (Dobson et al. 380). Since antibiotic usage is pervasive in livestock production, reducing overall meat consumption also has the additional benefit of reducing antibiotic resistance, which is vital for maintaining essential treatments for bacterial infectious diseases (Cohen). Attitude shifts and investment thus have the potential to provide opportunities for the effective management of disease, whilst also creating further benefits, such as improving environmental conditions and promoting


the ethical treatment of animals. Changes to the distribution of existing diseases may even create opportunities for disease eradication in some areas. For example, temperature increases across Africa may cause some areas (including coastal Western Africa and the Horn of Africa) to shift from continual to only seasonal suitability for malaria transmission (Ryan et al. 5). If interventions are concentrated in these areas, there is potential to eliminate the disease in certain countries.

Complete Bibliography:

Brooks, Daniel R.; Hoberg, Eric P.; Boeger, Walter A. The Stockholm paradigm: climate change and emerging disease. Chicago. [2020]. Cohen, Nick. Surely the link between abusing animals and the world’s health is now clear. The Guardian [2020]. Dobson, Andrew P, Stuart L Pimm, Lee Hannah, Les Kaufman, Jorge A Ahumada, Amy W Ando, Aaron Bernstein, Jonah Busch, Peter Daszak, Jens Engelmann, Margaret F Kinnaird, Binbin V Li, Ted Loch-Temzelides, Thomas Lovejoy, Katarzyna Nowak, Patrick R Roehrdanz, and Mariana M Vale. “Ecology and Economics for Pandemic Prevention.” Science (New York, N.Y.) 369.6502 [2020]: pp. 379-381. Web.

The nature of climate change and its effect on infectious diseases is intricate and will present correspondingly complex challenges in a world that is heading towards three degrees of global warming. Ebi, Kristie L., Nicholas H. Ogden, Jan C. SeHowever, if an informed, proactive menza, and Alistair Woodward. “Detecting and approach is taken, potential opportunities Attributing Health Burdens to Climate Change.” exist within these changes. The unfolding Environmental Health Perspectives 125.8 [2017]: 085004. Web. COVID-19 crisis should be a wake-up call; our current treatment of the biosphere is changing the planet in ways we cannot Friends of the Earth. REDD: The realities in black and white. Friends of the Earth International predict. To address the public health crisis [2010]. of shifting infectious disease prevalence, it is essential to minimise the effect of climate Guégan, Jean-François; Ayouba, Ahidjio; Cappelle, change and, if possible, avoid a scenario Julien; de Thoisy, Benoît. “Forests and emerging where three degrees of warming is a infectious diseases: unleashing the beast within.” Environmental Research Letters 15.8 [2020]. reality. At the same time, vital research and investment must be carried out to aid the Hoberg, Eric P. P., and Brooks, Daniel R. R. prevention, monitoring and control of new “Evolution in Action: Climate Change, Biodiverand existing diseases. Measures to mitigate sity Dynamics and Emerging Infectious Disease.” against climate change and disease go hand Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of in hand; we must do both to ensure a safe London. Series B, Biological Sciences 370.1665 [2015]. Web. future for both our planet and our health. IPCC Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC [2014]: p. 151

IPCC Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context...

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of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press. [2018]. Li, Qun; Guan, Xuhua; Wu, Peng; Wang, Xiaoye; Zhou, Lei; Tong, Yeqing; Ren, Ruiqi; Leung, Kathy S.M; Lau, Eric H.Y; Wong, Jessica Y; Xing, Xuesen; Xiang, Nijuan; Wu, Yang; Li, Chao; Chen, Qi; Li, Dan; Liu, Tian; Zhao, Jing; Liu, Man; Tu, Wenxiao. “Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia.” The New England Journal of Medicine. 382.13 [2020] pp. 1199–1207. Loh, Elizabeth H; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Olival, Kevin J; Bogich, Tiffany L; Johnson, Christine K; Mazet, Jonna A. K; Karesh, William; Daszak, Peter “Targeting Transmission Pathways for Emerging Zoonotic Disease Surveillance and Control.” Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. 15.7 [2015] pp. 432–437. Morse, S. S. “Factors in the Emergence of Infectious Diseases.” Emerging Infectious Diseases 1.1 [1995]: pp. 7-15. Web. Olivero, Jesús; Fa, John; Real, Raimundo; Márquez, Ana; Farfán, Miguel; Vargas, J.; Gaveau, David; Salim, Mohammad; Park, Douglas; Suter, Jamison; King, Shona; Leendertz, Siv; Sheil, Douglas; Nasi, Robert “Recent Loss of Closed Forests Is Associated with Ebola Virus Disease Outbreaks.” Sci Rep 7.1 [2017]: p. 14291. Web. ONS, 2020: Coronavirus and the impact on output in the UK economy: April 2020. Office for National Statistics. [2020] https://www.ons.gov. uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/ coronavirusandtheimpactonoutputintheukeconomy/ april2020. Accessed: 27/09/20. Ryan, Sadie; Lippi, Catherine; Zermoglio, Fernanda. “Shifting Transmission Risk for Malaria in Africa with Climate Change: A Framework for Planning and Intervention.” Malaria Journal 19.1 [2020]: 170. Web. Semenza, Jan and Menne, Bettina. “Climate change

and infectious diseases in Europe.” The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 9.6 [2009] pp. 365–375. Smith, K.R., A. Woodward, D. Campbell-Lendrum, D.D. Chadee, Y. Honda, Q. Liu, J.M. Olwoch, B. Revich, and R. Sauerborn. “Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits.” In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge [2014] pp. 709-754.


HOW CAN THE APPLICATION OF FLOATING SOLAR POWER TECHNOLOGY HELP MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE? A pair of students, Alistair Williams and Michael Tye, from the University of Lancaster discuss the potential of floating solar panel technology.

Introduction

change is transitioning energy power production away from fossil fuels, and limate change is a global towards renewable sources, such as hydro, environmental issue brought about solar and wind power. by the mass release of carbon into the atmosphere, sometimes by human Floating photovoltaics (FPV), or floating activities. The addition of carbon into solar technology, is the term given to a solar the atmosphere creates a ‘blanket effect’ power production installation that sits on around the planet, causing the average a body of water rather than on the land. global temperature to rise. Early predictions Like land-based solar power, floating solar looked at a possible 2 °C rise in global converts solar rays emitted from the sun temperature, however, that is now seen as into power (Nunez, 2019). FPV technology, a best-case scenario, and most conservative unlike it’s counterpart, sits on the surface estimates look at a 3°C rise. Such a rise of a body of water, on top of a buoyant in global average temperature would structure to keep it afloat (Erdem, 2019). cause significant damage to the human population, including flooding, drought, Wallace-Wells, D., 2019. The Uninhabitable Earth. 1st ed. New York: Penguin. 2nd starvation, and population displacement. Despite this, there could be a 4 °C rise by Nunez, C., 2019. Renewable Energy, Explained. the year 2100, even with significant action (online) (Accessed 17th October 2020). to mitigate climate change (Wallace-Wells, 2019). One such attempt to mitigate climate

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This essay will examine the potential of FPV to mitigate the effects of climate change through the mass placement of the aforementioned technology. The first section will discuss the potential effects of a world warmed by 3 degrees, and the impacts that these effects will have on the human race. The second section will look at the application of the still relatively new FPV, and look at the advantages and

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disadvantages of mass application of the technology. The third section will look at successful applications of the technology, referring to them as case studies, when making the argument that mass application of FPV would be advantageous in mitigating climate change.

The Effects of a 3+ degrees Warmer World

s mentioned in the introduction, the effects of a world warmed by 3°C would be very difficult to adapt to. It would include significant population displacement, rising sea levels, drought, and extreme weather patterns (WallaceWells, 2019). An estimated 3.2 degree rise would bring “the unthinkable collapse of the planet’s ice sheets not just into the realm of the real but into the present” (ibid.) and cause hundreds of low-lying cities around the world to flood, including Hong Kong, Shanghai, Jakarta and Bangkok (ibid. , Nicholls et al, 2007). Warming will not be equally distributed across the globe (as is the nature of mean average global temperature), with 38% of the cities listed being in Asia, and 27% of those cities being located in deltaic settings (Nicholls et al, 2007). The full effects of a world plus

human race has ever faced. The buildup of carbon in our atmosphere would lead to unreleased plagues being thawed from retreating glaciers, wide-scale ocean acidification, crop damages and ensuing hunger, a massive decrease in wildlife populations, a loss of freshwater reserves, over-polluted breathing air, rising sea levels, economic collapse, increasing heat, and political and military tensions due to these environmental issues (WallaceWells, 2019). As David Attenborough states in his new documentary, “this is a series of one-way doors” (David Attenborough: A life on our planet, 2020).

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here has been lengthy discussion about what must be done to mitigate climate change, some of which argues for a political transition towards renewable energy. One of the major themes within discussion around climate change is "A much warmer world would create several huge that it will both cause and need a societal change to properly address it, and that issues, which combined would be incomparable to current capitalist systems would not be anything the human race capable of surviving climate change (Klein, 2015). Another often dispelled idea about has ever faced." climate change is geoengineering, which is a term given to the man-made attempts 3 degrees have been covered extensively to stop climate change. Out of the potential within journals, books, and documentaries, geoengineering strategies discussed, the sometimes examining the full implications. closest to testing is aerosol injection, which To be specific, a much warmer world would would involve injecting aerosol particles create several huge issues, which combined into the atmosphere to create a reflective would be incomparable to anything the


outer atmosphere. Aerosol injection would, solar power farms, making it more difficult however, thicken the outer atmosphere, for photovoltaics (PVs) to be effective trapping more of the sun’s heat within it, as (Hulme, 2014). well as stop more of the sun’s light getting to Erdem, Z., 2019. Will Floating Solar Arrays (Floating Photovoltaics) Float Or Sink?. (online) Solar Power World. (Accessed 16 October 2020). Nicholls, R., Hanson, S., Herweijer, C., Patmore, N., Hallegatte, S., Corfee-Morlot, J., Chateau, J. and Muir-Wood, R., 2007. ​Ranking The World's Cities Most Exposed To Coastal Flooding Today And In The Future. Southampton: University of Southampton. David Attenborough: A Life on our Planet. 2020. (film) Directed by D. Attenborough. Hulme, M., 2014. Can Science Fix Climate Change?.1st ed. Chicester: Wiley. International Renewable Energy Agency, 2020. In 2019. Renewable Power Generation Costs. IRENA. Klein, N., 2015. This Changes Everything. 2nd ed. London: Penguin Books. Davey, E., 2019. Given Half A Chance. 1st ed. London: Unbound. United Nations, 2019. Unprecedented Impacts of Climate Change Disproportionately Burdening Developing Countries, Delegate Stresses, as Second Committee Concludes General Debate (online) (accessed 24th October) United Nations.org. 2020. #Envision2030 Goal 7: Affordable And Clean Energy | United Nations Enable.(online) (Accessed 17 October 2020). Solar.com, 2015. The Benefits of Floating Solar Panels. (online) (accessed 22nd October)

" It must be understood that the mass application of any renewable energy form is a political challenge, as much as it is an economic or environmental challenge, at least currently."

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he implementation of renewable energy has long been seen as a method to mitigate the effects of climate change; ‘clean and affordable energy’ is listed as the seventh UN Sustainable Development goal (Davey, 2019). Within this goal, the UN lists their aim as to “Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and clean energy for all” (Davey, 2019, p11). Within its objectives, the UN then goes on to list access to renewable energy as one of its specific objectives (United Nations, 2020). While accepted as a method to mitigate the effects of climate change, transitioning away from the coal and oil industrial sectors, both of which are large and powerful influences is more of a political issue. It must be understood that the mass application of any renewable energy form is a political challenge, as much as it is an economic or environmental challenge, at least currently (Davey, 2019).

" It has been estimated that to power the whole of the UK, an area of 2,635km² would be needed. That is the equivalent of the whole of Derby fully covered by solar panels. "

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ne of the Warburg, Applying floating solar 2015, biggest 2016). As well as this, technology drawbacks of the shade it provides solar PV is the huge prevents harmful amounts of space required for effective algae blooms from sprouting in the water, energy production. It has been estimated which leads to a healthier and more that to power the whole of the UK, an vibrant eco-system and keeps the water area of 2,635km² would be needed. That safe to drink (Franklin-Chueng, 2020). is the equivalent of the whole of Derby fully covered by solar panels. Standard Installation of the floating solar panels solar panel installations are can require acres of space in sunny areas, which could requires no heavy equipment or tools and its placement on reservoirs means be used for other facilities. As well as minimal disruption to wildlife in the this, the larger solar panel installations surrounding area. The construction can necessitate deforestation or other materials are fully recyclable, making FPV destruction of wildlife to clear the area, an incredibly eco-friendly way to produce which creates mono-cultures, reduces biodiversity, and reduces the ability of the energy. land to function as a carbon sink (Solar. com, 2015). Given the aquatic nature of this renewable energy source, it was only a matter of time before it was used in conjunction with Floating solar reduces this competition another renewable energy source – hydrofor space. FPVs can be found on the power. One of the major problems with surface of different types of (usually using nearly all forms of renewable energy man-made) reservoirs or on top of waste is that electric generators need stability water treatment ponds, which is space which renewables are not able to provide that would not otherwise be utilized. This due to the unreliable nature of weather arrangement is practical in more ways and climate. By combining hydroelectric than one. The nature of solar being in systems with FPVs, hydro-power can direct sunlight creates a paradox where, produce energy through the night when as it gets hotter, it becomes less efficient there is no sunlight, and the solar panels at transforming the sunlight into usable can produce energy through times of energy. When placed on a reservoir or seasonal low water levels. This means a other water source the water is able to constant generation of energy which can cool it down, leading to higher efficiency be used locally or transferred to the grid. even in hotter climates (Liu et al., 2017, Patel et al., 2020).

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n the other hand, floating solar has the usual weaknesses of solar The floating solar repays the debt to the energy, as well some of its own. cooling water by shading it from the harsh Due to specialist equipment required to sunlight which reduces evaporation by build the FPVs, they are more costly than up to 70% and so reduces future water shortages – for example, a 3 acre reservoir their land-based counterparts. However, covered in FPV reduces water losses due to the cost is currently expected to drop as the technology develops (Erdem, 2019). evaporation by 4 million gallons (Melvin,


Liu, L., Wang, Q., Lin, H., Li, H., Sun, Q. and Wennersten, R., 2017. Power Generation Efficiency and Prospects of Floating Photovoltaic Systems. International Conference on Applied Energy, 8(11), pp.1136-1142. Melvin, G., 2015. Experimental study of the effect of floating solar panels on reducing evaporation in Singapore Reservoirs. Undergraduate. National University of Singapore.

latitudinal level. Most existing solar farms can be found in large, open spaces, with the majority of the very large solar farms all being located in either India, China, or the United States of America (Baraniuk, 2018). This creates a conundrum in that water-sources that are appropriate for FPVs are less prevalent in these areas, due to the heat (Berners-Lee, 2019).

Some countries which receive less than the global average amount of sunlight, such as the United Kingdom, might struggle to reach cost-effectiveness with a largescale land-based PV application (Monbiot, 2017). There are, however, solutions to Franklin-Cheung, A., 2020. Are Floating Solar this issue, that would admittedly need Farms Better Than Land-Based Ones?. (online) BBC Science Focus Magazine. (Accessed 8 Designificant governance and management, cember 2020). which include storing the energy from when the sun was shining, ensuring Baraniuk, C., 2018. H ​ ow China's Giant Solar Farms that energy demand fits the supply, and Are Transforming World Energy​. (online) BBC. transmitting power from where the sun is com. (Accessed 16 October 2020). shining (Berners-Lee, 2019). Warburg, P., 2020. Floating Solar Is A Win-Win Energy Solution For Drought-Stricken US Lakes. (online) The Guardian. (Accessed 8th December 2020).

Berners-Lee, M., 2019. There Is No Plan(Et) B. 1st ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

FPV is also generally only used for large scale applications, often covering the surface of an entire man-made reservoir, pond or lake (ibid., 2019). This means that it is unlikely to be used by families, who may put regular PVs on their domicile, reducing some potential buyers if FPVs are mass produced. Land-based PVs are sometimes bought by single households to build on their roof, allowing for a local source of renewable energy with which to power their home. FPVs, like all solar energy, are limited by the access to the sunlight, and therefore must be located in places which receive a good amount of the sun’s rays. This means that most FPVs to be effective would also have to be located within the tropics on a

Other weaknesses of solar power application include the relative cost. The current cost of solar power is 0.068 per kWh in the US, which is more expensive than onshore wind applications. It must be noted however that of all renewable energy forms, the cost of solar has dropped the most significantly in the last decade, dropping by 82% between 2010 and 2019 (IRENA, 2020). Some sources disagree that solar is a particularly costly method of renewable energy production, with Mike Berners-Lee, author of 'There is no Planet B', going as far as to say “It has the potential to more than meet today’s energy needs, allowing us to leave fossil fuels in the ground” (Berners-Lee, 2019, p66). Current prices for FPVs are 1.14 per kWh, significantly higher than that of landbased PV (World Bank, 2018).

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Examples of floating solar technology

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small but growing number of countries have shown interest in the technology. Installations already exist in Japan, France, Indonesia, Singapore and the UK. However, the country which is by far leading the way when it comes to embracing this new form of energy is China – two thirds of the panels in the world belong to them. With China’s less than stellar track record when it comes to the environment, it may come as a shock that the largest floating solar system is from Anhui province, in Eastern China (NS energy, 2019). Sungrow Huainan Solar Farm has a capacity of 40mW, enough to power 15,000 homes. In fact, China is the world’s largest renewable energy investor, promising to invest $360 billion in clean energy by the end of 2020 (Time, 2017). This show of intent from a major polluting country is promising and necessary; China has the unfortunate claim to some of the worst air pollution world-wide, estimated to contribute to up to a third of the deaths in the country (Lu, 2020). The biggest publicly funded floating solar installation is in Kelseyville county, California. The system so far has proved a success for the drought prone state. Although it produces far less energy than the one in Anhui Province (only 250kW), it could catalyse a whole range of publicly funded renewable energy projects which would prove vital in the fight against climate change (NS Energy, 2019).

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Conclusion

he lack of new sea ice in the Laptev Sea this October, for the first time on record, shows that, more than ever,

The Laptev Sea has been called 'kindergarten for ice', but for the first time since records began, last year the sea had still not frozen until late October. This meant a record amount of open sea in the Arctic. the threat of climate change is looming large (Guardian, 2020). Donald Trump’s decision to pull America out of the Paris deal makes it increasingly likely that we will see a 3-degree warmer world, and all the negative implications that brings (WallaceWells, 2019). The fact that the effects of climate change will be felt much more by developing countries around the world makes the issue of climate change just as much about social justice as about science, which is part of the reason the topic has been politicized (United Nations, 2019). This makes government action crucial for successful action against climate change, as a market-based approach alone will fail those in poorer states. New innovations such as floating solar do offer a spark of hope in the battle to prevent the warming of our Earth. The idea to combine the technology with hydro-power is the kind of human ingenuity that could potentially save millions of lives by offering clean, stable energy. However, problems to do with the uptake of these new technologies are rampant. For example, an increase in the production of solar energy in China has led to reduction in costs by 85% since 2010, which in theory sounds like an ideal outcome (Chediak and Eckhouse, 2019). However, America (who was the previous market leader of solar technology) has accused China of drowning the market and reducing the profits of American companies. In order for new technology and innovations like floating solar to be successful, they


need to be endorsed by governments, not used as pawns in trade disputes. It is about time the politics was taken out of climate change. Alone, floating solar will not power the world, or stop climate change. As part of a well-structured, multifaceted approach, it could well end up being a vital step in the right direction towards a brighter future. Complete Bibliography: Baraniuk, C., 2018. How China's Giant Solar Farms Are Transforming World Energy. (online) BBC.com. (Accessed 16 October 2020). Berners-Lee, M., 2019. There Is No Plan(Et) B. 1st ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Bryce, E., Patel, P. and Giaimo, C., 2020. The Immense Potential Of Solar Panels Floating On Dams. (online) Anthropocenemagazine.org. (Accessed 8 December 2020). Davey, E., 2019. Given Half A Chance. 1st ed. London: Unbound. David Attenborough: A Life on our Planet. 2020. (film) Directed by D. Attenborough. Erdem, Z., 2019. Will Floating Solar Arrays (Floating Photovoltaics) Float Or Sink?. (online) Solar Power World. (Accessed 16 October 2020). Franklin-Cheung, A., 2020. Are Floating Solar Farms Better Than Land-Based Ones?. (online) BBC Science Focus Magazine. (Accessed 8 December 2020). Guardian, 2020. Alarm as Arctic sea ice not yet freezing at latest date on record. (online) (accessed 24 October) Hulme, M., 2014. Can Science Fix Climate Change?.1st ed. Chicester: Wiley. International Renewable Energy Agency, 2020. In 2019. Renewable Power Generation Costs. IRENA. Klein, N., 2015. This Changes Everything. 2nd ed. London: Penguin Books.

pp.1136-1142. Lu, D., 2020. Air pollution may be behind millions of deaths in China. New Scientist, 247(3301), p.12. Mark Chediak and Brian Eckhouse, 2019. “Solar and Wind Power So Cheap They’re Outgrowing Subsidies” Bloomberg LP. Melvin, G., 2015. Experimental study of the effect of floating solar panels on reducing evaporation in Singapore Reservoirs. Undergraduate. National University of Singapore. Monbiot, G., 2017. How Did We Get Into This Mess?. 2nd ed. London: Verso. Nicholls, R., Hanson, S., Herweijer, C., Patmore, N., Hallegatte, S., Corfee-Morlot, J., Chateau, J. and Muir-Wood, R., 2007. Ranking The World's Cities Most Exposed To Coastal Flooding Today And In The Future. Southampton: University of Southampton. NS Energy, 2019. A look at the major floating solar energy farms across the world. (online) (accessed 24th October) Nunez, C., 2019. Renewable Energy, Explained. (online) (Accessed 17th October 2020). Society, N., 2013. Delta. (online) National Geographic Society. (Accessed 17th October 2020). Solar.com, 2015. The Benefits of Floating Solar Panels. (online) (accessed 22nd October) The World Bank Group & Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore, 2018. Floating Solar Market Report. Where Sun Meets Water. Singapore: The World Bank Group. Time, 2016. How China Floated to The Top in Solar. (online) (accessed 22nd October) United Nations, 2019. Unprecedented Impacts of Climate Change Disproportionately Burdening Developing Countries, Delegate Stresses, as Second Committee Concludes General Debate (online) (accessed 24th October)

Liu, L., Wang, Q., Lin, H., Li, H., Sun, Q. and Wennersten, R., 2017. Power Generation Efficiency and Prospects of Floating Photovoltaic Systems. International Conference on Applied Energy, 8(11),

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AN INTERVIEW WITH SHAREABLE'S TOM LLEWELLYN Tom Llewellyn is the strategic partnerships director at Shareable.net. He was also the executive producer and host of the award-winning documentary and podcast series 'The Response'. This interview was recorded in Autumn 2020.

I was introduced to your work through your documentary about Puerto Rico and Hurricane Maria. A lot of your work is focused on communities in the aftermath of a distaster. The Response (A documentary film produced by Shareable) documents a certain trend among communities which have suffered. You have called it disaster collectivism. Would you mind explaining a little what that term means and what you discuss in the podcast? Sure. So, just a little bit of backstory and then I'll get to your question. Shareable is an organisation that has been around for about a decade. Most of our work has been focused on sharing; the ways people can share resources, the ways that governments and municipalities can support communal sharing of resources, and also how the cities themselves can become a platform for sharing, making their various resources available to people to use as well.

Over the years we've documented things like tool libraries and time banks and worker cooperatives, and new educational systems and systems of work. Back in 2018 or 2019, we released our most in depth ‘tome’ of sorts, called Sharing Cities: Activating the Urban Commons which looks at 137 different case studies and at policies that are already being implemented successfully to support people sharing resources. These might be food, waste, water, technology, finance, governance or anything like that. We were finishing that book in 2017 which was the year that had (at least in the United States), the most disasters on record, and the most destruction. Destruction both in terms of loss of life, and also in destruction of property. There were over 4000 deaths, coming from disasters, and over $300 billion worth of damages. Just in the United States. So we were releasing this book saying that these kinds of things are possible,


and actually these are the things that are happening now, but the disasters also made us take a step back and be like, "Okay, well how are these policies going to be affected by the change in climate?". That led us to start to look more closely at disasters as they came up. We began to see crises as peak opportunities for sharing. These are the situations where people really show up for each other. That's really what the what the podcast is about, and, indeed, this project in general. We've now got the podcast, the film, a book, and an ongoing editorial series, all looking into how communities come together during crises. And that's really what disaster collectivism is! It's looking at that kind of that reaction to adversity. We talk about disaster collectivism, and how that brings people together, but we also look at how people use those opportunities of crises to reimagine their communities, and to reimagine their interactions with each other, to create a community fibre. Moving forward, we want to see how communities that haven't been struck by a major disaster can see the disasters happening around them and realise that it's only a matter of time until something comes to their community. We want to see how those communities start to take collective action together.

When you have a shared experience, that becomes a lot harder to do, and we're also looking for that type of acknowledgement and connection from those that are experiencing something similar. So I think it really is just that shared experience, coupled with some sort of a loss, or a major stressor. We look at disasters all over the world, and this is the reaction to acute disasters. It's actually very different when we start talking about ongoing or chronic social disasters. But acute disasters really do bring people together.

"Okay, well how are these policies going to be affected by the change in climate?".

What is it about these kind of climate disasters which trigger that kind of response? What is the thing which triggers everyday civilians to try and do things themselves?

Another major factor is a lack of institutional support, like the case of New York City, after Hurricane Sandy where the Rockaways neighbourhood of Queens was largely impacted. It’s a lower income area and official support was very slow to get there. And so, within that vacuum there was a community response. It was aided both by people living in the community and also individuals that were independent and not associated with an official disaster response organisation like FEMA, or the Red Cross. They were just people who showed up to offer their support because there was a need.

Well, I think it's a mixed one. I think it's just a natural reaction. It’s a time out of time. The everyday activities are forced to stop. And as a result, so are the artificial barriers that we put up. Normally you might just walk past somebody on the street and not acknowledge them at all.

That's where you get something like Occupy Sandy which was not an organisation unto itself, it was more of an umbrella term for a lot of organisations that were working in concert, but independently from FEMA and from

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the Red Cross. Although there was some communication and some sort of support from those groups, it was relatively small for the amount of impact that took place after the hurricane. At one point in time there were 60,000 independent volunteers that were that were working under the umbrella of Occupy Sandy. So those are the two things that really bring people together, there’s a collective experience and then also that vacuum that's left when there's a lack of kind of official support.

This was very well studied in Japan, after the triple disaster in 2011 of the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown. This was also studied in the Chicago heatwave of 1995. Both of these studies suggest that one of the greatest determinants for survival during a disaster is the amount of, or the depth of social relationships that a person had. All things being equal, if you look at two people in very similar neighbourhoods, the amount of social ties that they have in a disaster is a determinant factor of whether or not somebody survives. In the case of the Chicago heatwave people were dying in their homes, because of how hot it was. If you had a number of relationships, it was more likely that somebody would come to your home to check in on you. There was a collective care that took place.

Occupy Sandy started in a fairly low income area, and that seems to be a common trend in the places you cover. After the Grenfell fire in London we had a similar period of people opening up their homes to the victims, and trying to help them out. People at the time said that it wouldn’t have been needed if the victims were wealthy, because they would have been offered more support (or, in fact, the fire never would have occurred in the first Similarly, with the tsunami in Japan, the place). number of relationships that somebody had in the area increased the chances Do you think these kind of communities of someone warning them or helping are more likely to pop up in low income them out. I recently interviewed the chief areas? If so, do you think that’s because resilience officer for the city of Paris, and these areas do seem to get less support? he was also talking about these studies, because they’re looking at a massive Well, I think that areas that are chronically heatwave. Just last summer they had the biggest heat wave in recorded history, and under-served are more likely to have they're expecting the temperature of Paris alternative systems for meeting their needs: that may be alternative economies, to be rising for the next many, many years to come. And so as they're doing their that may be because they need stronger resilience planning they're looking at their interpersonal relationships to survive. I infrastructure and that sort of thing, but don't know the exact science and I haven't they're also really thinking deeply about seen enough of the studies to be able to say that this is the thing which determines how they are helping residents build and create additional social relationships. where these communities emerge. But it Strengthening social relationships is a key does happen, and that's kind of the thing element of their overall resilience strategy. that comes up over and over again.


Do you think government initiatives can help build those kind of connections? You don't really think of that as something that the government would be able to help with. Well, one of the things that we are working on in the United States is the development of resilience hubs. These are spaces within communities which are both resilient in themselves, having things like food and water, backup power and shelter, but that are also supporting the overall resilience of their neighbourhoods through their existence. Dennis Normile has written an article for The American Association for the Advancement of Science which provides a good overview of how and why this is the case in the Fukushima disaster of 2011. Erik Klinenberg's mongograph Heat Wave: A Social Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago does similarly for the Chicago disaster. And there's a major opportunity there for governments to be involved in supplying resources and support. One of the new partners of the Northern California Resilience Network is the United States Urban Sustainability Directors Network. All the different sustainability directors in cities around the United States are also thinking about this, and the USDN has created a kind of model for resilience hubs as well. So I think there is a definitely a place for government in creating the infrastructure, and then with that infrastructure comes the opportunity for engagement. I can just talk about my own personal experience. I'm from a small town of about 225 people hidden in the middle of the San Francisco Bay Area. There

are people that live their entire lives on all sides of us and have no idea that we're here. But it's a kind of a wooded enclave, and in this community, I refer to it as a semi-autonomous unintentional community. Within this semi-autonomous unintentional community we have a public school which is kindergarten through eighth grade, and it's a three room schoolhouse. And we have a United States Post Office. And that's the only official infrastructure or business or anything within the community, and all of the houses live up on private roads off of the main road. As a community we maintain all of our own infrastructure, so we pave the roads and we have a certain amount of participatory budgeting for community infrastructure projects. Everybody is a member of the water cooperatives within the community. My family happens to be one of 13 families that co-own 26 acres of community land trust, but that's an anomaly. Within the community most people either rent, or they own their own plot independently, and so we don’t have an official homeowner's association or mandatory dues. But we have our voluntary dues, and we manage all of our resources as a commons. And one thing that I have seen time and time again, is that it's not the meetings, or even the social events that really deepen the community ties as much as it’s the collective experience of maintaining our shared resources together. It's the coming out multiple times a year for ‘road days’- to maintain the road as a group. As a kid when I was 10 years old I would save my funky shoes every year, because I knew that paving day was coming up, and I would be out there with an asphalt rake raking the asphalt and participating in the maintenance of those roads and destroying my shoes in

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the process. It gave me a whole different appreciation for what it means to be in a community, and what it means to have those types of relationships. It’s still going. People show up on road days or when we're doing fire clearing because we're in a very very high fire danger area. A group of us for the last couple of years has managed a cooperative herd of goats, which are used to clear the underbrush and reduce our fire load. It's not as much a government programme, but it is civic participation, and municipalities and governments can help enable that. It’s through having a certain amount of agency within our communities that we start really rubbing shoulders and interacting with others and building relationships in a much deeper way than occurs from showing up to vote or showing up at a community meeting.

anything, whether that's building relationships or creating a community project or infrastructure, you're strengthening the whole in an incredible way. It’s important to create affinity groups, especially you know if you're going to be going to some sort of a protest or action. You have your pod, your group of people that you can trust and who will look for you if you're missing, who know to look out for you if you get arrested, and who have your contact information, and things like that.

It’s the same thing during a disaster, people fall back on to their existing relationships. And so if you are very active in a co-working space, or you have started a tool library, or you're working on a community garden, or you're doing some sort of Food Not Bombs protest or Yeah, I think I was quite lucky because you're part of some volunteer group, those we managed to move into a village which are the people that you're going to contact was very similar in that kind of way. We first. keep all our roads and we have to sort out ourselves, but if you're a person living in a city who doesn't know very many people, So for those that are living in more urban how do you start to build up that civic areas that don't have a lot of relationships, participation yourself? it’s important to participate in something, to develop any kind of relationship.

This is one of the things that we've seen with Shareable over the years. There's an infinite number of ways to get involved but it's really just showing up and finding things that you're passionate about, and then finding the others who are passionate about it as well and building independent networks. On Shareable we have over three hundred ‘How to’ guides for how to start various sharing and resilience initiatives. The way I see it, by doing something,

They did the study back in the 80s and they found that the average US resident had three close friends. That’s three people that they could rely on to bail them out of jail, that they could talk to about relationship issues and things like that. Three very close, intimate, non-familial relationships. The study was just done again and they found that the average person living in


A collection of texts produced by Shareable and avaliable freely at Shareable.com

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United States now has one close friend. And that's the average. That means that there's a huge percentage of people that don't have anybody that they can rely on. Last year we did a deep editorial look into this and we released an a free ebook about the global loneliness crisis because it's not just in the United States, it's happening everywhere, and it's having incredible effects. Anecdotally, and I don’t have a lot of data to back this up, around the world we are seeing what I want to call a general lack of social connection, leading towards civic disconnection. It proliferates a certain amount of othering, which I feel is supporting this rise of authoritarianism that we're seeing globally. There was a study that was done after Brexit which found that, again, all things being equal, one of the greatest determinant factors for whether somebody voted to stay in the EU or leave the EU, was the amount of interactions that they had with people from other cultures. And I’m not talking about deep interactions. This is interacting with somebody at the grocery store or seeing people on the street, and the more interactions that people in the UK had the more likely they were to vote to stay within the EU. If they had less to no interactions with people of other cultures, they were more likely to vote to leave. That doesn't surprise me. That was why London had so many remain voters, I think. I was going to ask if you had a magic wand which you could wave on cities before a disaster to make them more resilient, what would you do, but it sounds like a coffee shop would work pretty well!

That's one of projects that I ran myself in 2007! We ran a pop-up café, a community café, every single Sunday for the entire year. We were at the school which doubles as our community centre, and we only had large tables. We didn't have any small tables. There wasn't a table set up that only one person could sit at by themselves. So, people sat down and shared a meal together that hadn't talked in 10 or even 20 years because of some disagreement. This was in a community of 225 people, which is tiny, but some people hadn't had any kind of a real relationship or discussion with others. It was an incredible opportunity for building the cohesion of the community. Really with that magic wand you’d want to provide opportunities for interaction and that might be additional public parks. Libraries are incredible pieces of infrastructure that attract all different demographics. They’re probably the most common denominator across all incomes when it comes to civic infrastructure. Actually, building and modernising our libraries is really important right now. Libraries are actually starting to see themselves as community centres. We actually just released a new book about the libraries of things, which looks at libraries that are lending out tools or kitchen equipment or camping supplies,


or even technology. There are libraries which have recording studios, or are turning themselves into free co-working areas with free Wi Fi. They’re adding cafes, and figuring out what other services that they can provide to continue serving their communities. I'm a very big fan of libraries! Full disclosure, I co-founded a tool library in Asheville, North Carolina, a number of years ago, which is still going strong. So I was very passionate about it then and I continue to be very passionate about it now. The last question tends to throw people a little bit for a loop, because when we confront climate change, we tend to focus on saying that we need to stop it at any cost. Even if we are successful and emissions were to stop tomorrow though, we would still see some impacts. What is your best case senario, what do you hope to see if the world does warm? I thought about this one a lot and I don't think it's an if. I think we already are heading that way. We’re only now feeling the impact of the carbon, methane and other greenhouse gasses which were released 10 to 30 years ago. There’s a delayed impact, which is something that our species are really bad at understanding and grasping, and as a result we struggle to moderate our behaviour. I think that we have already significantly warmed the planet, as a whole, and we are feeling that impact. From around 1982 to now we've experienced about four to six major disasters in the United States every year on average. That number has increased three to four fold in the last five years, with the peak being in 2017, when we had 16 of

these major disasters in one year. The four or five biggest years of disasters were 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017. So there is a trackable impact that is already occurring as a result of climate change. These more disparate natural hazards which are being increased; fires and floods and tsunamis and heat waves and bomb cyclones and all these things are going to are going to happen more and more often, and are going to be more extreme. They are also going to be touching areas where there have not been these types of disasters before. We saw this in Africa this last year, where there were multiple typhoons that came through and just did incredible destruction in ways that they'd never done before in recorded history. We're going to start seeing communities that haven't had to brace for various disasters beginning to face them. And, hopefully, we're able to start to see these disasters as being related to each other in a way that we haven't yet. Right now they’re viewed as disparate symptoms. And there's this symptom over there and that symptom over there and it’s actually very similar to the pandemic that we're facing right now. It’s even got a similar timeline, first there were pandemic deniers who were saying this thing isn’t real, it's not actually happening, it's not going to be a big deal. And then there were people that were saying okay well it is kind of a big deal but there's not really anything that we can do about it, or that we should do about it. And then it moved to the alright, this thing is a really big deal and we need to do something about it but we don't know exactly what, and then it's the okay now we know we need to shut down, we need

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to wear a mask when you go out. There's still a certain small percentage of people that are saying we don't need to do these things but the vast majority of people are on board. It's very similar except instead of the decades it’s taken for climate, it's been a matter of a few weeks for each step around the pandemic. It’s similar as well in that we began by only really knowing the impact on the lungs. Then we realised it can mess up your circulatory system, actually it can mess up your brain, actually you can get the COVID toe! It has many different symptoms, but it's all tied to same virus, and they're starting to build awareness of that, and I hope that a similar thing will happen with climate change where we will see there's many different symptoms that are that are taking place, in different places around the planet but it's all tied to the same virus, it's all tied to climate change. I do think that there is going to be some of the awareness that we need, but a lot of that awareness is going to build much slower than we need it to. It is going to take time, but already, we're already starting to see that things becoming undeniable. And with that realisation a number of things are going to change. To begin with there are a certain amount of people that are incredibly privileged, who are going to build their proverbial bunkers or even their real bunkers, and they're going have their gated communities where they’re separated from us. And these are the type of people who are financing the climate denying media while knowing full well what is occurring. It is my belief from what I've

read and what I've seen that those that are the most active in denying that there is climate change are essentially doing so to be able to maintain their privilege for as long as possible, so that they have time to set up their infrastructure to be resilient to this change, so that they can invest in new businesses that are that are going to be able to survive into the future, investing into their own personal parachutes, essentially. Again, this is similar to the pandemic. In the very beginning there was a lot of talk about masks not actually being necessary. And that narrative was being promoted, not because they didn't think that masks were necessary, but because there weren't enough masks for everyone and they wanted there to be masks available for medical workers. The line wasn't true. In this case, it was better for the whole that our medical workers on the front lines had the masks, I understand that completely. The fact is though that there was a lie there. This is a very similar idea, except it's not for the benefit of the whole, it's a benefit for the few. Claiming climate change isn't happening is a method of maintaining a certain amount of dominance, and as we move forward that veil is going to become a lot thinner, and people are going to see through it. There are always going to be a certain amount of people who try to grab as many resources for themselves as possible, and fall into that fear narrative, as we saw with toilet paper and other things towards the beginning of the pandemic. But there's going to be others that are going to think more about the people within their communities, and are going to build local pods.


I think another really encouraging thing that's occurred with the pandemic is that we've seen this rise in mutual aid. The general concept of mutual aid was on the fringe, but it's now become much more mainstream. They've even used the term on CNN! There are groups all over the world that of that are starting up mutual aid networks to take care of others within their communities. This kind of community based infrastructure developed for an acute disaster is going to be incredibly important in maintaining society, and supporting of our health, and our species in general, as we face this more ongoing chronic disaster which is upon us. Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. I see the next 30 to 50 years, really the rest of the century, as being really difficult. I do think that we will look back on 2018, 2019 as being the best of times. Things are just going to get worse from here on out for the generations that are currently on the planet. There is going to be massive amounts of migration taking place. We're already seeing that. I think a lot of the migration that we're seeing from the Middle East to Europe is a result of climate change. Yes, there is there is a war and conflict is taking place, but a lot of that conflict is based on a lack of resources in the region. One of the tactics that Turkey is using on the Kurds is damming up the up the rivers which are flowing into Syria. They are withholding water to a huge population of people, and using that as a weapon of war. They’re threatening their survival. We're seeing a lack of freshwater across the world, especially along the equator.

"...there's many different symptoms that are that are taking place, in different places around the planet but it's all tied to the same virus, it's all tied to climate change." That’s contributing to migration. We’re going to see that in Central America, and we're going to see that in Southeast Asia. People are going to have to move because where they're living is no longer habitable and they're not able to feed themselves. And that is going to create a lot of conflict. For those of us that are in areas that are not impacted as much, how we deal with migration and whether we allow our fellow human beings into our communities is really going to showcase our true colours. It will show whether or not we are an ‘evolved species’. Do you think we could see some light in this tunnel? It's going to be tough, but do you think that we'll see a change in communities maybe for the better? I was pretty negative, just a moment ago saying that I think that we'll look back at the first 20 years of this century as being the best of times. I do think it will have been the easiest times for many people. But at the same time, with an acute crisis where systems break down, people strengthen their relationships, and can actually have incredibly euphoric

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experiences. There will be a number of communities that benefit from this this change. There is the opportunity to break down the systems of capitalism, which are incredibly extractive and harmful to many, many people. And so there will be some forms of harm which will be reduced. It will provide an opportunity for people to build those relationships. They could grow from having zero or one close friend to having more close friends to rely on moving forward. Even with the tragedy of COVID, people in my community are interacting a lot more, sharing resources and talking, dealing with their issues more in that forum rather than just complaining about things on Facebook.

a community. The disaster of COVID has really brought people together. What's hard is the areas that already are under resourced. I just had a conversation with an organiser that works with the favelas in Brazil. This last week and it's the most recent episode of the response podcast. There is this single kind of negative narrative around favelas, which is kind of put over the top of the favelas in general. Ideas of crime, of crisis, high death rates and all these things. But the favelas themselves are incredibly diverse, and are these centres of culture.

"This kind of community based infrastructure developed for an acute disaster is going to be incredibly important in maintaining society..."

There are some that that have very few resources where there are more instances of violence from gangs and militias, but the vast majority of them are people that are showing up for each other and that's what's occurred during the pandemic as well. People are really showing up for each other even if there is a major lack of support coming from the government. In Rio de Janeiro, roughly 25% of the city's population lives in these types of communities, which are historically under resourced.

Neil Gordon, the executive director of Shareable, lives in a housing development with around 57 other houses. This neighbourhood has begun to interact with each other and support each other in ways that he never experienced in the previous 10 years of living there. This is somebody that is trying to encourage sharing and interaction on the global level but who wasn’t having a lot of success in his own community. Keith has talked about how for the first time he feels like he's living in

Again, COVID is acting as a window into what the future could hold. It’s hard to say exactly how things that occur with an acute disaster (lasting a week or two in the initial destruction phase), will translate into something like this pandemic which is now lasting months and could go on for years for some people. There has been a certain amount of attrition in mutual aid networks recently. People will really support each other for the first couple of months and now it's gone on for so long that it’s been harder to maintain the


sympathy systems. There’s probably going to be a lot of research on what has made various mutual aid responses last creating those models which work. COVID has given us all these test cases to learn from. The other great thing is that so many people during the pandemic have been organising online. And once this lifts people are going to have strong desires to meet in or interact with the people that they were working with online in person. There's going to be an opportunity to strengthen those relationships… I'm encouraged the ways that people have reacted to this pandemic for the most part, and that gives me hope moving forward.

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URBAN SCOTLAND PLUS THREE DEGREES

Rhys Mawby discusses the future here in Scotland.

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Introduction

this radiation in all directions, furthering the warming effect (ibid.).

limate refers to the average fluctuations and variations of the weather on a long-term scale, usually This natural process keeps the Earth’s measured over a period of several decades. average surface temperature warm and without this effect the average temperature on earth would be much colder, the climate Across the history of our planet, the sun, as could have wilder fluctuations and life the primary source of energy, has played a would be unlikely to flourish (ibid.). central role in influencing and maintaining the global climate (Kate, M. 2017). The majority of solar radiation from the sun However, since the industrial revolution passes through Earth’s atmosphere and began in 1760, Earth’s average global is absorbed by the surface of the Earth temperature has increased rapidly, and today the devastating environmental (Lallanila, M. 2018). impacts of climate change have moved from innocuous changes to devastating Greenhouse gases (GHGs) contribute to alterations to our ecosphere (Allen, R. the greenhouse effect when they absorb 2010). infrared radiation (Kate, M. 2017). Examples of GHGs include carbon dioxide, In September 2020, the average global land sulphur dioxide and methane. and ocean surface temperature was 0.97°C which is above the 20th century average of When GHGs are released naturally into the 15.0°C (Legarde, C. 2020). This surpassed atmosphere these gases absorb and re-emit the previous record set in 2015, and again


Greenhouse gases are those which trap heat in the atmosphere. They include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases. Around 80% of the emissions produced by the United States are carbon dioxide, which enters the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels. in 2016 by 0.02°C (ibid.). These temperature changes may appear small, but if they were left to continue increasing at this rate without any urgent action this would be enough to collapse fragile ecosystems by the year 2100 and severely impact Earth’s ability to support all forms of life (Briggs, H. 2020). We now have evidence that the iconic polar bears are predicted to become extinct by 2100 due to the alarming loss of the ice caps they rely on for feeding grounds (Briggs, H. 2020). This will starve them into extinction unless we reduce global GHG emissions significantly (ibid.). Dr. Peter Molnar of the University of Toronto in Ontario, Canada, made this clear in his recent statement “Polar bears are already sitting at the top of the world; if the ice goes, they’ll have no place to go." (ibid.). In a world plus 3 degrees, sea levels could rise by 0.91 meters by 2100 according to The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2019). If sea levels continue to rise it will ultimately cause widespread impacts on habitats in coastal areas and even further inland, through increased erosion, coastal flooding and agricultural soil salinisation, prompting substantial habitat loss for many

sensitive species (Nunez, C. 2019). The impact of climate change on human societies could also become serious. Warmer global temperatures will likely promote the proliferation of disease to new areas, previously protected by unsuitable Kate, M. (2017). Environmental Science [online]. Available from: <https://socratic.org/questions/ how-does-the-greenhouse-affect-keep-the-earthwarm>. [Accessed 27 July 2020]. Lallanila, M. (2018). What Is the Greenhouse Effect? [online]. Available from: <https://www. livescience.com/37743-greenhouse-effect.html>. [Accessed 9 December 2020]. Allen, R. (2010). Industrial Revolution [online]. Available from: <https://www.history.com/topics/ industrial-revolution/industrial-revolution>. [Accessed 2 August 2020]. Lagarde, C. (2020). Global Warming Update [online]. Available from: <https://www.co2.earth/global-warming-update>. [Accessed 3 August 2020]. Briggs, H., Gill, V. (2020). BBC News [online]. Available from: <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ science-environment-53474445?intlink_from_ url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cmj34zmwm1zt/climate-change>. [Accessed 27 July 2020]. IPCC (2019). 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories [online]. Available from: <https://www.ipcc. ch/report/2019-refinement-to-the-2006-ipcc-guidelines-for-national-greenhouse-gas-inventories/>. [Accessed 1 August 2020]. Nunez, C. (2019). Sea level rise, explained [online]. Available from: <https://www.nationalgeographic. com/environment/global-warming/sea-level-rise/>. [Accessed 1 August 2020]. Jordan, R. (2020). How does climate change affect disease? [online]. Available from: <https://earth. stanford.edu/news/how-does-climate-change-affectdisease#gs.bxgd7r>. [Accessed 3 August 2020].

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To aggravate the situation, renewable sources of energy are currently more expensive to establish than known GHG enriched resources such as fossil fuels, an unfortunate outcome of the wide availability of these materials and their current economic attractiveness. Arguably, there is a wealth aspect to surmount, with renewable approaches unobtainable for (Jordan, R. many societies despite the general desire to do so (Dudley, B. 2019).

"...there is a wealth aspect to surmount, with renewable approaches unobtainable for many societies despite the general desire to do so..." environmental 2020).

conditions

Diseases like malaria require warm climates to propagate, which means that Malaria is most likely to spread at 25°C.

While some impacts of climate change can be managed and made possible to live with, others are irreversible and harmful to our ecosystems, highlighting the necessity to Diseases like these can spread easier in a produce emergency plans to reduce GHG warmer climate, risking future pandemics, emissions and to minimise and mitigate which could cause a rise in avoidable deaths these impacts (ibid.). and a fall in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (The Global Economic Outlook During the This is why the United Nation’s Sustainable COVID-19 Pandemic: A Changed World Development Goal 7, affordable clean 2020). This could initiate a constriction of energy, is trying to generate various trading between businesses, markets and schemes to decrease energy demand other countries necessary to minimise the from the use of finite resources. One spread of these diseases (ibid.). notable example would be investing in car companies which produce electric cars, The World Bank Group is currently forecasting a 5.2% percent contraction in global GDP in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic (ibid.). The rise in sea levels, particularly in highrisk low-lying areas like the Maldives, Netherlands and coastal Florida, could lead to serious flooding (Nunez, C. 2019). Homes could be flooded and damaged due to strengthened waves colliding with these coastal areas in storms forcing residents to evacuate their homes and move further inland, as well as billions of U.S. dollars worth of damage (ibid.).

The Global Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Changed World [online]. (2020). Available from: <https://www.worldbank. org/en/news/feature/2020/06/08/the-global-economic-outlook-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-achanged-world>. [Accessed 8 December 2020]. Nunez, C. (2019). Sea level rise, explained [online]. Available from: <https://www.nationalgeographic. com/environment/global-warming/sea-level-rise/>. [Accessed 1 August 2020]. Dudley, B. (2019). BP Energy Outlook 2019 edition [online]. Available from: <https://www. bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/ corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/energy-outlook/ bp-energy-outlook-2019.pdf>. [Accessed 26 July 2020].


allowing them to become a more global trend, and cheaper to buy by 2030, therefore reducing GHG emissions overtime (ibid.). The scientific consensus is that to avoid the issues a World +3 degrees would bring, the average global temperature would have to rise no more than 1.5 °C in the future (ibid.). To achieve this, GHG emissions would have to be reduced to net zero in most emission categories at least by 2050 (ibid.).

A map produced by Railfuture indicating the changes needed to move Scotland away from cars.

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One key solution to reduce the risk of the planet’s rise in average global temperature is to encourage and support people around the world to live more sustainable lives, particularly prioritising the maintenance of buildings and reconsidering our transportation systems, two sectors that use the majority of our energy requirements (ibid.). The aim of this essay is to find out which strategy needs to be prioritised the most to

help mitigate and manage the impacts of climate change and meet the goals of SDG7 set by the UN. It could be argued that developing more sustainable transport systems needs to be prioritised the most. The use of renewable energy sources to support economic growth, and improving energy efficiency in buildings will also be considered in this essay at the international level.

Developing more sustainable transport systems

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n 2018 about 364.1 million tonnes of CO2 (carbon dioxide) was emitted in the U.K. and about 33% of that was from the transport sector so the methods of transport used for travel for purposes like commuting, leisure, and business play a significant role in the consumption of fossil resources and therefore the emission of key GHGs and other air pollutants (Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy 2019).

public transport and on privately owned vehicles (Narayanaswami, S. 2016).

This issue is particularly exacerbated in urban areas because higher population density in urban areas means more residents present who want and need to travel to and from places for business, education and leisure purposes both by

In the Scottish city of Edinburgh, Lothian Buses Ltd. recently introduced fleets of electric and hybrid buses (Lothian Buses, Sustainability 2020).

" In 2018 about 364.1 million tonnes of CO2 (carbon dioxide) was emitted in the U.K. and about 33% of that was from the transport sector..."

One way to make public transport more sustainable would be the encouragement of local authorities to invest in hybridisation of public and private transport. This would likely improve air quality and alleviate fossil resource consumption and GHG emissions (Sustainable Investing 2020).

Combining affordability, availability to use public transport and behaviour change strategies will help people move towards public transport instead of mostly driving privately owned vehicles, emphasise the utility for private transport for essential travel, and encourage sustainable and arguably healthier alternatives for shorter distances (Herrlin, J. 2018).


Other new schemes introduced by The City of Edinburgh Council are designed to make the choice for residents to take the more sustainable public transport even easier (The City of Edinburgh Council 2020). Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (2019). 2018 UK GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, PROVISIONAL FIGURES. London: The Stationery Office. Narayanaswami, S. (2016). Urban transportation: trends, challenges and opportunities [online]. Available from: <http://parisinnovationreview.com/articles-en/urban-transportation-trends-challenges-and-opportunities>. [Accessed 8 December 2020]. Sustainable investing [online]. (2020). Available from: <https://www.ubs.com/uk/en/ wealth-management/my-topics/passion/ sustainable-investing.html?campID=SEM-Investment-UK-EN-GOOGLE-G_UK_AO_EN_ Generic_Investment_BMM-SI_Investing_Generic_BMM- investment-BMM>. [Accessed 8 December 2020]. Lothian Buses, Sustainability [online]. (2020). Available from: <https://www.lothianbuses. com/sustainability/>. [Accessed 27 July 2020]. The City of Edinburgh Council [online]. (2020). Available from: <https://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/cycling-walking>. [Accessed 27 July 2020]. Blanco, S. (2018). Forbes [online]. Available from: <https://www.forbes.com/sites/ sebastianblanco/2018/08/31/84-million-electric-buses/?sh=22323ab05e40>. [Accessed 9 December 2020]. Maloney, P. (2019). Electric buses for mass transit seen as cost effective [online]. Available from: <https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/electric-buses-mass-transit-seencost-effective>. [Accessed 9 December 2020].

"... the new hybrid and electric Lothian buses in Edinburgh are now currently on track to achieving their own target of reducing GHG emissions by 42% by the end of 2020..." For example The City of Edinburgh Council has invested in Lothian buses in the past to keep the service maintained and in recent years Edinburgh’s Lothian buses now offer the Lothian bus app available for customers to download on their smartphone where they can purchase bus tickets on the go streamlining the process and making public transport more attractive (Lothian Buses, Sustainability 2020). These schemes all make more sustainable transport a big priority to help mitigate the impacts of climate change and achieve SDG7 goals. Capital sourced from communities using transport schemes like the hybrid and electric Lothian buses can go towards future investments to further enhance sustainable transport options in the future (Lothian Buses, Sustainability 2020). For example the new hybrid and electric Lothian buses in Edinburgh are now on track to achieving their own target of reducing GHG emissions by 42% by the end of 2020 (Scottish Government 2020). Therefore, with more cities in Scotland now taking similar approaches Scotland’s public transport could contribute to 40-45% of the main Scottish Government target of reduced GHG emissions (reduction by 75% by 2030) (ibid.).

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In cities such as Edinburgh new cycle lanes have been established to open up easier travel options particularly for those who only need to take shorter distances within the city along key routes. As cycling is a low carbon option this will encourage more residents to choose a more sustainable option, rather than driving (The City of Edinburgh Council 2020). Money invested into this project, Just Eat Cycles, has also led to the introduction of electric e-bikes in Edinburgh, widening cycling options even for residents who may be initially reluctant or disinterested in the initial changes, further encouraging a variety of people to leave their cars behind (The City of Edinburgh Council 2020).

However, the introduction of electric buses can be expensive for bus companies and government bodies to introduce (Blanco, S. 2018). In U.S. dollars ($) the 2018 average cost for a big electric bus is approximately $750,000 compared to $435,000 for the average diesel one due to additional materials and extra maintenance required for electric buses (ibid.). Electric buses however can provide cost and fuel savings, an electric bust could save $400,00 in fuel expenses and $125,000 in maintenance over the buses’ lifetime (Maloney, P. 2019)

Improving energy efficiency in buildings in urban areas

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rban areas and their heavy energy through systematic strategies to minimise demands account for 80% of any unnecessary emissions from buildings all global GHG emissions and (ibid.). consume about 75% of natural resources (UN Environment Program 2020). Local communities for example could become more sustainable themselves if Most people have a desire to live in towns they are encouraged to get into simple but and cities as more jobs, schools, shops, effective habits such as remembering to necessities and leisure areas are located switch off electronic devices when not in here, but this also means more buildings to use (Energy conservation: 10 ways to save support the living and working populations energy 2020). leading to an increase in demand for energy consumption (ibid.). Switching to more energy efficient LED lightbulbs will reduce the amount of The UN is currently investing in the unnecessary GHG emissions even if they ‘’Sustainable Energy for All’’ goals to help are left on, they could save anywhere achieve Sustainable Development Goal between 25% and 80% of electricity and 11 ‘Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient and last up to 25 times longer than traditional sustainable’, which will also contribute to the lightbulbs (ibid.). goals of SDG7 in the long term. Its main aim is to double energy efficiency in buildings in urban areas by 2030 in affordable ways In the 2010-2015 environmental quality


policy the UK government announced a framework to try to reduce U.K. building’s GHG emissions through encouragement of behaviour changes within the five year period (MINTEL Behaviour Changes and Energy Use 2011). During this period the U.K. government prioritised building management so that unnecessary lighting was not established during the construction of buildings (ibid.). They also aligned temperatures to prevent buildings being overheated unnecessarily (ibid.).

amount of energy generated per person is now down 24% as of 2005 and on a domestic level, implementing similar policies and proposals could help achieve the policy’s main goal of reducing emissions by 57% by 2030 (ibid.).

MINTEL. (2011). Behaviour Change and Energy Use. London: Cabinet Office Behavioural Insights Team.

The use of renewable energy to support sustainable economic growth

Other U.K. policy groups like the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have also introduced a scheme centred around premium payments for residents whose electricity and gas runs on fossil-based This policy also helped by changing the sources in an attempt to encourage default position in building management residents to use their energy more wisely approaches, such as suggesting that (Dudley, B. 2019). buildings be shutdown during quiet times like between Christmas and New Year to help save energy. Over the five years this The U.K. today uses about 190 million successfully reduced department emissions tonnes of oil to generate power for homes, by 25% (Schlechtriem, M. 2020). The so the OECD also aims to reduce overall energy use in U.K. buildings by 30% by 2040 UN Environment Program [online]. (2020). (ibid.). Available from: <https://www.unep.org/>. [Accessed 31 July 2020]. One of the major difficulties we face is Energy conservation: 10 ways to save energy changing domestic behaviour as people [online]. (2020). Available from: <https:// often find it more convenient to continue www.energysage.com/energy-efficiency/101/ in their old ways than to find sustainable ways-to-save-energy/>. [Accessed 9 December solutions to every day activities (Berkman, 2020]. E. 2018).

Schlechtriem, M. (2020). Households Fight Greenhouse Gas Emissions [online]. Available from: <https://www.greenmatch.co.uk/ blog/2019/02/households-fight-greenhousegas-emissions>. [Accessed 2 August 2020]. Tunney, L. (2014). Why is renewable energy important? [online]. Available from: <https:// www.makeitcheaper.com.au/news/why-isrenewable-energy-important>. [Accessed 28 July 2020].

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enewable energy is any kind of clean energy that has been generated from natural sources that are continually being replenished (Tunney, L. 2014). Sources of renewable energy include solar panels and wind turbines that use solar and wind energy to generate electricity. These

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can be built on farms, fields or even at electricity installed in 2014, becoming the people’s homes (ibid.). second biggest electricity source behind coal globally (Acciona 2015). Renewables are a very effective way to generate electricity without consuming finite resources that would otherwise cause GHG emissions. While the output of a wind turbine depends on the size of turbines, speed of rotations and wind speed through the rotor, the average onshore wind turbine can produce at least 6 million kilowatt hour (kWh) a year, enough to supply 1,500 average households with electricity in the European Union(The European Wind Energy Association 2016).

The EU’s directive successfully contributed to this by helping renewable to achieve a 20% share of the EU’s energy up to 2020 so far, and is now on track to accomplish a 27% share by 2030 (Meyer, F. 2020). Most studies also show that increasing renewable energy use like this will increase Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 1.1.% worldwide by 2030, boosting economies in Europe and other areas of the world in a sustainable fashion (Hawila, D. 2016).

However, despite all this renewable growth, the SDG7 statistics also suggest gas and oil will still account for nearly 50% of Effective strategies to help establish enough renewables to meet energy demand all primary sources of energy by 2040 in without contributing to GHG emissions the ‘Rapid Transition Scenario’ (Dudley, B. are often characterised by governmental subsidy schemes. These are schemes which The European Wind Energy Association [onfinancially support the newest renewable line]. (2016). Available from: <https://www. technologies and include the EU policy ewea.org>. [Accessed 9 December 2020]. ‘Renewable Energy Directive (2009)’ where government bodies of member states Meyer, F. (2020). Renewable Energy Support invest in renewables with the money they Policies in Europe [online]. Available from: gainedthrough loan guarantees, investment <https://climatepolicyinfohub.eu/renewablegrants and tax incentives (for example from energy-support-policies-europe>. [Accessed 27 taxing the public’s fossil fuel usage) (Meyer, July 2020]. F. 2020).

Since renewables are normally expensive to buy, invest, and establish, schemes and policies like these will hopefully help renewables to become common enough for them to become cheaper and more affordable to establish even in low income countries. This will increase the chances of keeping the global temperature down (ibid.). Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2015 showed renewables accounted for half of all generation capacity of

Acciona (2015). Renewable Energy [online]. Available from: <https://www.acciona.com/ renewable-energy/>. [Accessed 29 July 2020]. Hawila, D. (2016). IRENA/International Re\ newable Energy Agency [online]. Available from: <https://www.irena.org/documentdownloads/publications/irena_measuring-the-economics_2016.pdf>. [Accessed 29 July 2020]. Dudley, B. (2019). BP Energy Outlook 2019 edition [online]. Available from: <https:// www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/ en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/ energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2019.pdf>. [Accessed 26 July 2020].


2019). This model suggests oil consumption will reduce to approximately 80 million of barrels per day by 2040 but 60% of it will still go to power vehicles in the transport sector (ibid.).

annum (p.a.) accounting for 66% of total growth in global renewable electricity generation as of 2019 and is expected to be the biggest single source of worldwide generation of electricity by 2040 (ibid.).

Furthermore, while some developing countries like China, India and certain African countries can still increase non-fossil fuel usage and achieve high decarbonisation, other low income countries have limited scope to decrease fossil fuel usage due to limited funds to invest in the more expensive renewable versions of energy generation. This leads them to have a greater reliance on coal instead (ibid.).

The EU leads the conversation and contribution to this growth because of the success in the share of renewables within the EU’s power market rising by more than 50% by 2040 (ibid.).

This growth is currently being bolstered by more developing nations like China and India who collectively contribute to nearly half of the growth in renewable power generated today and by 2030 the EU Renewable Energy Directive is expected to Overall, the use of renewables to support have invested enough to reduce generation economic growth is still successful in prices and electricity bills, making addressing SDG7 goals and keeping average renewables more affordable for the public global temperatures below a 1.5°C increase including eventually in developing nations because today’s renewables are currently (Hawila, D. 2016). the biggest source of growth in global energy, and are central for global power This could also decrease inflation and markets and in GDP (ibid.). boost people’s incomes and household consumption as well as economic activity According to statistics from the Special within a country’s electric-intensive sectors Report on Emissions, renewable areas (ibid.). are increasing faster than areas of power stations and oil rig areas with 7.6% per

I

Conclusion

n conclusion, the strategy that needs prioritising most to reduce GHG emissions and reduce the risk of Earth’s average global temperature of rising more than 1.5 °C is to develop more sustainable transport systems because 60% of the 80 million barrels of oil used per day is currently used in transport to power vehicles, so switching to the selling and use of hybrid and electric modes of transport

will increase the odds of meeting the SDG7 target of decreasing the share of oil used for transport worldwide by 85% by 2040 (Dudley, B. 2019). Approximately 40% of the world’s generated energy is also consumed through powering buildings, so making buildings more resource efficient through the discussed policies and strategies will further contribute to the SDG7 2040 target (ibid.).

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Finally, it is the general consensus that developing countries cannot always afford to introduce electric and renewable versions of vehicles and sources of energy usage due to financial challenges, however efforts must be made collectively if a net zero in GHG emissions target is to be achieved on a worldwide scale, therefore maximising the odds of keeping the average global temperatures down (ibid.).

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Acciona (2015). Renewable Energy [online]. Available from: <https://www.acciona.com/ renewable-energy/>. [Accessed 29 July 2020].

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Berkman, E. (2018). Psychology Today [online]. Available from: <https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-motivatedbrain/201803/why-is-behavior-change-sohard>. [Accessed 1 August 2020].

Herrlin, J. (2018). The trusted independent voice for transport and mobility [online]. Available from: <https://www.transport-network. co.uk/How-we-can-get-more-people-to-takethe-bus/15228>. [Accessed 9 December 2020].

Blanco, S. (2018). Forbes [online]. Available from: <https://www.forbes.com/sites/ sebastianblanco/2018/08/31/84-million-electric-buses/?sh=22323ab05e40>. [Accessed 9 December 2020].

IPCC (2019). 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories [online]. Available from: <https:// www.ipcc.ch/report/2019-refinement-to-the2006-ipcc-guidelines-for-national-greenhousegas-inventories/>. [Accessed 1 August 2020].

Briggs, H., Gill, V. (2020). BBC News [online]. Available from: <https://www.bbc.co.uk/ news/science-environment-53474445?intlink_ from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/ cmj34zmwm1zt/climate-change>. [Accessed 27 July 2020].

Jordan, R. (2020). How does climate change affect disease? [online]. Available from: <https://earth.stanford.edu/news/how-doesclimate-change-affect-disease#gs.bxgd7r>. [Accessed 3 August 2020].

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Kate, M. (2017). Environmental Science [online]. Available from: <https://socratic.org/ questions/how-does-the-greenhouse-affect-


keep-the-earth-warm>. [Accessed 27 July 2020].

blog/2019/02/households-fight-greenhousegas-emissions>. [Accessed 2 August 2020].

Lagarde, C. (2020). Global Warming Update [online]. Available from: <https://www.co2. earth/global-warming-update>. [Accessed 3 August 2020].

Scottish Government (2020). Reducing greenhouse gas emissions [online]. Available from: <https://www.gov.scot/policies/climate-change/ reducing-emissions/>. [Accessed 28 July 2020].

Lallanila, M. (2018). What Is the Greenhouse Effect? [online]. Available from: <https://www. livescience.com/37743-greenhouse-effect. html>. [Accessed 9 December 2020]. Lothian Buses, Sustainability [online]. (2020). Available from: <https://www.lothianbuses. com/sustainability/>. [Accessed 27 July 2020]. Maloney, P. (2019). Electric buses for mass transit seen as cost effective [online]. Available from: <https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/electric-buses-mass-transit-seencost-effective>. [Accessed 9 December 2020]. Meyer, F. (2020). Renewable Energy Support Policies in Europe [online]. Available from: <https://climatepolicyinfohub.eu/renewableenergy-support-policies-europe>. [Accessed 27 July 2020]. MINTEL. (2011). Behaviour Change and Energy Use. London: Cabinet Office Behavioural Insights Team. Narayanaswami, S. (2016). Urban transportation: trends, challenges and opportunities [online]. Available from: <http://parisinnovationreview.com/articles-en/urban-transportation-trends-challenges-and-opportunities>. [Accessed 8 December 2020]. Nunez, C. (2019). Sea level rise, explained [online]. Available from: <https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/ sea-level-rise/>. [Accessed 1 August 2020]. Schlechtriem, M. (2020). Households Fight Greenhouse Gas Emissions [online]. Available from: <https://www.greenmatch.co.uk/

Sustainable investing [online]. (2020). Available from: <https://www.ubs.com/uk/en/ wealth-management/my-topics/passion/ sustainable-investing.html?campID=SEM-Investment-UK-EN-GOOGLE-G_UK_AO_EN_ Generic_Investment_BMM-SI_Investing_Generic_BMM- investment-BMM>. [Accessed 8 December 2020]. The City of Edinburgh Council [online]. (2020). Available from: <https://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/cycling-walking>. [Accessed 27 July 2020]. The European Wind Energy Association [online]. (2016). Available from: <https://www. ewea.org>. [Accessed 9 December 2020]. The Global Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Changed World [online]. (2020). Available from: <https://www. worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2020/06/08/ the-global-economic-outlook-during-the-covid19-pandemic-a-changed-world>. [Accessed 8 December 2020]. Tunney, L. (2014). Why is renewable energy important? [online]. Available from: <https:// www.makeitcheaper.com.au/news/why-isrenewable-energy-important>. [Accessed 28 July 2020]. UN Environment Program [online]. (2020). Available from: <https://www.unep.org/>. [Accessed 31 July 2020]. Continued on page 79.

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space.com Elon musk's space link

The Lurking Dangers of Space Pollution Zoe Harvey

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In 1949, twenty years before man would set foot on the moon, the very first humanmade object was launched into space. The RTV-G-4 Bumper was an American-German experiment to figure out how missiles and rockets would operate in space. Since that launch in 1949, almost fifteen thousand objects have been launched into orbit. Very few of these objects have come back down again. These objects become space pollution, or space debris. Some objects that scientists refer to as space debris are in fact naturally occurring. These natural pieces of debris float through different orbits, being pulled towards Earth because of the planet’s gravity. On their own, they do not pose such a risk to any of the existing satellites or spacecraft. However, combined with the other type of space debris they can add to the ever-pressing problem of space pollution (A Guide to Space Debris). This other type of space debris is obsolete human-made objects that have become trapped in the gravitational pull of different terrestrial bodies – mainly Earth’s orbit. When spacecraft and satellites are sent into space, very few of them return fully intact. After the launch of Sputnik 1 in 1957, the very first artificial satellite in space, the US government decided that they needed to create a database to track satellites. Although this database was started as part of the Cold War effort, it expanded

" When spacecraft and satellites are sent into space, very few of them return fully intact." throughout the years to become one of the most extensive sources of what surrounds our planet (Hoots, Felix). The United States Space Surveillance Network (USSSN) now works with other agencies across the world, including the European Space Agency (ESA) to keep track of the debris. As of February 2020, 8800 tonnes of artificial material is thought to be in space. 22,300 large objects orbit our home planet, only 10% of which are operational (Space Debris by the numbers). The remaining debris floats lifeless and dead through space, travelling at the same speed at which they travelled when they were still useful. These twenty thousand pieces are not the only things up there. These are the only items that are big enough to be reliably detected. 34,000 pieces of debris are over ten centimeters long, 900,000 pieces are between one and ten centimeters, and 128 million pieces are smaller than one centimeter. These are mostly artificial, all from the last 75 years (ibid.). Although it may seem as though these small pieces are less dangerous than their larger counterparts, the reality is that they can cause several issues on their own. These tiny pieces are grouped with micrometeorites (tiny natural debris, weighing less than a gram) and are


“A Guide to Space Debris.”https://www.spaceacademy.net.au/watch/debris/debris.htm Accessed: 03-10-20. Hoots, Felix R. et al, History of Analytical Orbit Modeling in the US Space Surveillance System, 2004 Safety and Security, ESA (Feb 2020) – "Space Debris by the numbers”. Available at: https:// www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/Space_debris_by_the_numbers. Accessed: 2909-20. Committee on Space Debris, SDASEB (1995) – , Orbital Debris: A Technical Assessment, 1995

fifteen times a day, which means they often pass very close together. The amount of satellites for the space they are in (also known as density) is very high. Some of these satellites travel very fast, up to 10

The Geostationary Orbit (GEO), which is higher than the LEO, is less densely populated. The satellites here follow the same rotation as the Earth, so are essentially locked over a singular point on Earth. The

JPL photo number P-6759

As well as being categorised by size, they are also designated by their orbit. When in Earth’s gravity, they are either in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) or a Geostationary Orbit (GEO). Debris in a LEO orbit is within 2,000 km of earth. Many of these pieces of debris (or satellites) orbit in planes around

km/s (or 20,000mph). When two pieces of debris collide with each other, the effective speed they are going relative to one another can reach 16km/s (35,000mph). The force of the collision causes them to splinter into thousands of pieces, creating more space debris of smaller sizes, which can go on to repeat this process. Most manned missions take place 400km away from the Earth’s surface. At this point, smaller fragments are pulled towards the atmosphere are burned away before they can damage the spaceships. Not all decay naturally, most (around 75%) remain there, forever twisting round Earth, trapped in a gravitational pull surrounded by other satellites, whether dead or alive (Committee on Space Debris). First Human-made object to enter space Image courtesy: NASA/JPL-Caltech

called MMODs.

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chances of two satellites colliding in this orbit is lower, making the GEO a somewhat safer orbit than the LEO. However, the problem of dead satellites and space craft remains. Wherever human beings go, they seem to leave nothing but waste in their wake. Although the chances of collision are far less in this orbit, they still happen. At least two satellites have been destroyed by space debris at this level, and they had to be taken out of operation and moved to a ‘graveyard orbit’ (Saccoccia).

The loss of such an area would take many generations to fix. Although space crafts would be able to travel through the area, the amount that we rely on satellites in this area for is high, and the loss of things such as GPS, Internet, and weather predictions would be devastating for the world we live in now. Scientists could also lose observational use of the Hubble Telescope, which is one of the most pivotal telescopes used in the last fifty years. Kessler estimated that a loss such as this would set space travel back In 1978, Donald J Kessler from NASA almost 75 years. For reference, men walked foresaw the issue of space pollution on the moon a mere 51 years ago. and posited a theory of what eventually could happen if humans did not clean up he warning signs of such a syndrome after themselves (Kessler). The Kessler have been present for the last two Syndrome described what would happen decades. In 2009, two satellites if the amount of Space Pollution in the collided in the low earth orbit, completely LEO reached its maximum point. When destroying each other, shattering into there is a certain number of objects in the thousands of pieces (Iannotta). The Low Earth Orbit, the probability of a crash two satellites (only one of which was in between two large pieces of debris is so operation at the time) were Iridium-33 high that it is inevitable. The fragments and Kosmos-2251. When they collided at a from the large crash will cause collisions speed of 42,000 meters per second, it was and fragmentations of their own, which the first time a collision of this scale had will go on to do the exact same, and so on. happened between two satellites. At the This continued effect of constant breaking time, both satellites had been orbiting Earth down of these objects will eventually make for more than ten years. This collision had the area of the LEO unusable for most ramifications for many years afterwards, spaceships and impossible for satellites to with the debris created posing even more safely orbit. This area of debris would also danger to other spacecraft and satellites. be pulled down and towards the manned zone, making the area unsafe for manned missions into space. The International Space Station had to conduct a manoeuvre in 2011 to avoid with some of the high velocity " When there is a certain colliding debris from the crash, and several Chinese number of objects in satellites also had to make manoeuvres the Low Earth Orbit, the resulting in them throwing off a number of consistent orbits (NASA 2011). In 2012, probability of a crash between two large pieces one of the larger parts remaining of passed by the International of debris is so high that it is Kosmos-2251 Space Station at about 120 meters. Although inevitable." it was just a precaution, the six members

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aboard the space station at the time had to also affected by the collision that took place retreat inside a docked spacecraft until it almost 800 kilometers above sea-level. In had passed. Kentucky, USA, there were reports of sonic booms, and pieces of debris too big to burn up in the atmosphere falling (Byrne). The ramifications of this collision did not The National Weather Service issued a only affect space. People on Earth were statement tying the sonic booms to the collision (National Weather Service), and Saccoccia, et al, Method for re-orbiting a dual- the Federal Aviation Administration issued a warning to all pilots flying at the time to mode propulsion geostationary spacecraft, warn them of possible debris re-entering 1995 the atmosphere (Harwood). Kessler, Donald J (June 1978) - Collision frequency of artificial satellites: The creation of a Due to the sheer amount of debris that debris belt, 1978 currently resides in the lower earth orbit, Iannotta, Becky (Feb 2009) - U.S. Satellite De- satellites that are travelling at high speeds pass each other hundreds of times a stroyed in Space Collision. Available at: https://www.space.com/5542-satellite-deday. Scientists and Engineers that work stroyed-space-collision.html. Accessed: 01-10- maintaining the operational satellites must 20. (Accessed October 2020) constantly calculate how closely other dead (and alive) satellites will pass by. In NASA, NASA (July 2011) – The Internathe case of the 2009 collision, however, tional Space Station Again Dodges Dethe calculations estimated that they would bris. Available at: https://web.archive.org/ pass by with half a kilometer between web/20111020092342/http://orbitaldebris.jsc. them (which turned out to be incorrect) nasa.gov/newsletter/pdfs/O DQNv15i3.pdf. (Celestrak). These errors present in Accessed: 01-10-20. (Accessed October 2020) calculations combined with the amount of fuel and energy required to move or Byrne, Joe (Feb 2009) – Satellite Wreckchange its orbit, means that the likelihood age falls on Kentucky, Texas, New Mexico. of scientists being able to stop collisions Available at: https://web.archive.org/ between a ‘dead’ satellite and an active one web/20090217204710/http://rawstory.com/ news/2008/Satellite_wreckag e_falls_on_Ken- is slim. There is even more danger when tucky_Texas_0215.html. (Accessed: 30-09-20. considering collisions between two already dead satellites. Most of these satellites are September 2020) not monitored constantly, and as they are National Weather Service. https://web.archive. no longer operational, they do not have any power or engines to move them out of org/web/20090217071308/http://www.crh. noaa.gov/product.php?site=JKL&product=PNS danger, essentially leaving them to orbit in a game of chance. &issuedby=JKL . Accessed: 02-10-20. Harwood, William, FAA Warns of Possible Falling Satellite Debris, 2009 Celestrak, Iridium 33/Kosmos 2251 Collision, 2009

The space shuttle must traverse through this area to reach the International Space Station (ISS) and beyond. In 2009, NASA released a statement detailing how dangerous space debris was to such

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ATMOSPHERIC TRASH AND TREASURES Since 1949, many things have been launched into the atmosphere. We look at some of the most memorable.

In 1949 the first human-made object entered space. “Bumper-WAC” consisted of a Corporal missile sitting on a German-made V-2 rocket which had been by a team of German scientists who had surrendered at the end of World War 2. Perhaps the more well-known ‘first’, was the first artificial satellite the Soviet Union launched in 1957. Known as Sputnik 1, this was a key moment in the Space Race which accelerated technological innovation in the 20th Century. The first animals in space actually went up before Sputnik. Fruit flies were transported aboard a V2 rocket in 1947. Laika, the dog most of us connect to the title of ‘first animal in space’, was actually the first animal to complete an orbital spaceflight. Laika actually survived four orbits, before the temperature controls failed. In April 1958 (after approximately 2,570 orbits), Sputnik 2 and Laika’s remains left orbit and disintegrated on re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere. Plenty of animals died in space, but the first cat into space survived. Félicette was the first animal the French sent into space and she parachuted down safely. Unfortunately, the French killed her two months later to examine her brain. Two tortoises were the first to orbit the moon and return safely in 1968. Yuri Gagarin was the first man into space on the 12 of April in 1961 on the Vostok 1, while Alan Shepherd was the first American less than a month later, on the 5th of May.

There have also been some odd incidents like a pizza delivery in space (Pizza Hut and Roscosmos in 2001), Luke Skywalker’s lightsaber flying to the ISS and back, and Space X’s famous 2018 launch of a Tesla Roadster.


Top Left - An image of the first cat to travel to space. Top Row Middle "Space X Falcon 9" by CaptSpaulding Top Row Right - Intelsat IV was placed in a synchronous orbit over the Atlantic with the capacity of about 6,000 circuits or 13 television channels. Bottom Left Sputnik One Bottom middle - An Agena Target Vehicle atop its Atlas Launch vehicle Bottom right - Space X's Starman (photo by Space X) All Photos From NASA creative commons unless otherwise stated.

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manned missions (Aviation Week & Space Technology). Half of all possible dangers from space travel come from the dangers of space debris. The chances of something hitting and damaging the space shuttle were roughly 1 in 300, which was increased to 1 in 185 due to the aftermath of the collision between Iridium and Kosmos, with the current chances sitting at 1 in 221 (Harwood). The Russian Space Station Mir had extensive damage to it during its operation, which meant that it constantly had to be repaired to keep it functional. Repairs that took place on Mir showed that debris collisions deteriorated the solar panels that were used to collect energy (Smirnov). With all the problems that space debris and pollution causes, there is no doubt that something has to be done to fix it. Unfortunately, like many other types of pollution currently in the world, not enough has been done to rectify the situation that we humans caused. For many years, all that was done in relation to space pollution was tracking and measurement. Tracking and measurement is very important when dealing with space pollution, though it does not directly help the clearing of it.

" With all the problems that space debris and pollution causes, there is no doubt that something has to be done to fix it. " in how they decay and evolve over their lifetimes. The US Strategic Command also uses a combination of ground-based radar and space-based telescopes to help back up Lidar tracking (Stokes). This means that less uncertainty is involved in the measurements of the movements and more accurate orbits can be calculated.

The move to completely catalogue the space debris that surrounds Earth is not limited to the ground. In fact, a number of probes and satellites have been sent to survey the state of the Low Earth Orbit. Although this is just adds to the amount of satellites that are part of this orbit, the majority of them have been recovered or have come back down to Earth. This is because samples were taken from some of the few natural pieces of debris as part of the survey. NASA’s Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) that was released by the space shuttle Tracking is mainly done by optical and Challenger and collected by the space radio observations, primarily using the shuttle Columbia spent five and a half years technique known as Lidar (Mehrholtz). in orbit around the Earth, collecting data Lidar is when the distance to an object and cataloguing the debris (Nikanpour). is measured by lighting it up with a laser and measuring the reflection of the laser using radio and optical astronomy. This The effects and damage of space pollution can help create three dimensional images has also been researched using spacecraft of the debris, which in turn can be used and shuttles that have returned to to simulate its expected orbit and the way Earth. This has given scientists a greater that it will move. This way of measuring understanding of how to protect the space and cataloguing debris is now so advanced craft when it is in orbit, or when travelling that it can be used to track satellites over through the area. However, this only treats time, allowing scientists deeper insight the symptom of space pollution, and does not mitigate the actual thing causing it. The


problem is human beings - in our haste to research and discover, we sent countless droids and crafts up to the stars, without much thought of how they will spend their life after we have finished with them.

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"Debris Danger" in Aviation Week & Space Technology, Volume 169 Number 10 (Sep 2008) Page 18 Harwood, William. "Improved Odds Ease NASA’s concerns about space debris” https://www.spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/ sts125/090416debris/ . Accessed:03-10-20.

n order to start the clean-up of the lower earth orbit, there are some unwelcome facts that humanity has to confront. The main reason that the Smirnov, VM et al , Study of Micrometeroid and Orbital Debris Effects on the Solar Panels clean-up has not taken place yet is due to on ‘MIR’ , 2009 the lack of a financial incentive. There are more commercial satellites up in the Mehrholtz, D, (July 2009) – Detecting, TrackLEO than there are government research ing and Imaging Space Debris, 2009 ones (UCS Satellite Database). Since there are no strict regulations to force them, Stokes, Grant et al, The Space-Based Visible private companies do not see any point Program, 2006 in retrieving their dead satellites, instead abandoning them to the everlasting circling Nikanpour, Darius, (October 2012) – Space of the planets. From their point of view, it’s Debris Mitigation Technologies, 2012 just a lot of money spent on something that is not legally required. This sort of mindset UCS Satellite Database. https://www.ucsusa. is toxic, especially when it comes to the org/resources/satellite-database#.W7Wcwpmaintenance of such an important area of Mza9Y . Accessed: 01-10-20. space. In more recent years, institutions such as the United States governmental Amos, Jonathan (October 2020) – ”Square bodies have disregarded their own targets Kilometre Array projects frets about satellite to slow satellite number growth, with any interference”. Available at: https://www.bbc. theoretical plans to retrieve dead satellites co.uk/news/science-environment-54457344 . quickly disappearing. Commercial Accessed: 01-10-20.(Accessed October 2020) companies such as SpaceX have plans that would cause extreme issues for ground- Starlink Constellation plan would decimate based radio and optical astronomers. The ground-based astronomy, whilst also adding another 700 satellites to the orbital cycle (Amos). It is this profit-driven model that has caused the situation that the human " The problem is human race finds itself in now. Instead of putting beings - in our haste to research and humanity first, profit drives research and discover, the future, which is simply unsustainable we sent countless droids for the long term.

and crafts up to the stars, without much thought of how they will spend their life after we have finished with them."

Some satellites that are still operational have set out plans to destroy themselves in the Earth’s atmosphere once they have completed their lifetime of work. By slowly

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changing their orbit as the life of the satellite ends, the slow decent through the atmosphere would burn up the majority of the satellite, with any surviving debris falling into a designated zone in the ocean, where scientists and companies can gather it and study it. There has also been a number of improvements in regulation of satellites in the GEO area. The International Telecommunications Union has attempted to regulate it by requiring all satellites to enter into a graveyard orbit at the end of their lifetime (Taylor).

underway to clean up Earth’s orbit with new initiatives, and innovative ways to clear debris have been tested, tried and are now implemented. In 2014, the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency ( JAXA) launched a new type of craft that was designed to pull junk out of outer space using a tether and net system. Due to a machine malfunction the mission was very quickly declared a failure (Phys.org). This was before it could collect any of the debris, and instead had to be collected itself. The ESA is planning a similar mission that is to launch in 2023, designed to capture extremely large objects over 4,000kg (Biesbroek). Surrey The Iridium constellation were part of Space Centre (an offshoot of the University a program that attempted to bring all 95 of Surrey) launched a mission early 2018 joint telecommunication satellites either which would harpoon debris and bring it back down to Earth (through de-orbiting) aboard. This mission is still ongoing. or moved to a graveyard orbit after their functions had stopped. Unfortunately, 29 of those satellites did not have enough The United Nations Committee on the mechanical function to re-enter the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNCPUOS) atmosphere, leaving them trapped out set out a series of voluntarily suggestions there. In addition to the one that collided for the protection of the Low Earth Orbit, with the Kosmos satellite, only 70% of and many other countries have put in the constellation were disposed of when their own measures in order to keep to finished (Caleb). the committee’s standard (CPUOS). All of All hope is not lost and there are a number of programs from other parts of the planet, namely Europe and Asia. The effort is


these standards were set in the early 2000s, and only one country has updated these in the last 5 years – the USA when they were repealing them.

then they would be able to take maneuvers and avoid each other. Forcing companies to clean up after themselves would mean that companies would not abandon their satellites when they became less costefficient. If such regulations were in place, The current situation in terms of space then every satellite that was sent up into pollution seems pretty dire, and that is orbit would have to have an exit plan – because it is. However, it does not need some way of getting it back down to Earth. to stay that way. The scientific advances This is by far the most efficient thing that are out there, and ready to be used to could be done in order to stop adding to the clear up the orbit surrounding the Earth. problem. The United Nations and the various space agencies throughout the world need to act now and take a stand. The future of space This still leaves us with the existing problem, travel, of space research, of the internet, of which scientists have been trying to solve communications and human knowledge is for a number of years. Unfortunately, they at stake. Regulating the amount of satellites have been met with challenges out of their that currently are in orbit, would be a large control, such as machine malfunction and step towards a cleaner future. Capping lack of funding. By spending the money and the amount of satellites that are allowed the time to clear the Low Earth Orbit, we to orbit in the Low Earth area would force would be making our own planet healthier. companies and countries alike to clear old From lasers to nets, and harpoons to droids, dead satellites in order to put new ones countless solutions have been posed. These up. Removing the dead satellites would solutions need to be put into place and also significantly decrease the chances utilized. of collision or destruction. If all satellites that were orbiting Earth were operational, Pollution of all sorts is an extreme problem for Earth. The Human Race cannot seem to clean up after itself. Listen to the data that is being recorded. Pollution is a problem, Global Warming is a problem, but there are ways to stop it, to reverse it. The path that we as a planet are on is dangerous, but it is not too late to turn back and change things. We need to work with the planet, not against it. Beyond the atmosphere of our planet is an infinite space, full of mysterious things that reach out into unimaginable distances. We have a future out there, exploring and discovering. But we need to look after the place that gave us life, to

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protect


Complete Bibliography: “A Guide to Space Debris.”https://www. spaceacademy.net.au/watch/debris/debris.htm Accessed: 03-10-20. Hoots, Felix R. et al, History of Analytical Orbit Modeling in the US Space Surveillance System, 2004 Safety and Security, ESA (Feb 2020) – "Space Debris by the numbers”. Available at: https:// www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/ Space_debris_by_the_numbers. Accessed: 2909-20.

National Weather Service. https://web.archive. org/web/20090217071308/http://www.crh. noaa.gov/product.php?site=JKL&product=PNS &issuedby=JKL . Accessed: 02-10-20. Harwood, William, FAA Warns of Possible Falling Satellite Debris, 2009 Celestrak, Iridium 33/Kosmos 2251 Collision, 2009 "Debris Danger" in Aviation Week & Space Technology, Volume 169 Number 10 (Sep 2008) Page 18

Committee on Space Debris, SDASEB (1995) – , Orbital Debris: A Technical Assessment, 1995

Harwood, William. "Improved Odds Ease NASA’s concerns about space debris” https://www.spaceflightnow.com/shuttle/ sts125/090416debris/ . Accessed:03-10-20.

Saccoccia, et al, Method for re-orbiting a dualmode propulsion geostationary spacecraft, 1995

Smirnov, VM et al , Study of Micrometeroid and Orbital Debris Effects on the Solar Panels on ‘MIR’ , 2009

Kessler, Donald J (June 1978) - Collision frequency of artificial satellites: The creation of a debris belt, 1978

Mehrholtz, D, (July 2009) – Detecting, Tracking and Imaging Space Debris, 2009

Iannotta, Becky (Feb 2009) - U.S. Satellite Destroyed in Space Collision. Available at: https://www.space.com/5542-satellite-destroyed-space-collision.html. Accessed: 01-1020. (Accessed October 2020) NASA, NASA (July 2011) – The International Space Station Again Dodges Debris. Available at: https://web.archive.org/ web/20111020092342/http://orbitaldebris.jsc. nasa.gov/newsletter/pdfs/O DQNv15i3.pdf. Accessed: 01-10-20. (Accessed October 2020) Byrne, Joe (Feb 2009) – Satellite Wreckage falls on Kentucky, Texas, New Mexico. Available at: https://web.archive.org/ web/20090217204710/http://rawstory.com/ news/2008/Satellite_wreckag e_falls_on_Kentucky_Texas_0215.html. (Accessed: 30-09-20. September 2020)

Stokes, Grant et al, The Space-Based Visible Program, 2006 Nikanpour, Darius, (October 2012) – Space Debris Mitigation Technologies, 2012 UCS Satellite Database. https://www.ucsusa. org/resources/satellite-database#.W7WcwpMza9Y . Accessed: 01-10-20. Amos, Jonathan (October 2020) – ”Square Kilometre Array projects frets about satellite interference”. Available at: https://www.bbc. co.uk/news/science-environment-54457344 . Accessed: 01-10-20.(Accessed October 2020) Taylor, EA and Davey, JR, (June 2007) – Implementation of debris mitigation using International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards, 2007 Caleb, Henry. “Iridium would pay to de-orbit


its 30 defunct satellites”. https://spacenews. com/iridium-would-pay-to-deorbit-its-30-defunct-satellites-for-the-right-price/ . Accessed: 02-10-20. Phys.org “Phys.org (Feb 2017) – Japans troubled ‘space junk’ mission fails." Available at: https://phys.org/news/2017-02-japan-spacejunk-mission.html. Accessed: 01-10-20. (Accessed October 2020) “The E-DEORBIT Mission.”

Continued from page 65. United Nations.org. 2020. #Envision2030 Goal 7: Affordable And Clean Energy | United Nations Enable.(online) (Accessed 17 October 2020). Wallace-Wells, D., 2019. The Uninhabitable Earth. 1st ed. New York: Penguin. 2nd Warburg, P., 2020. Floating Solar Is A Win-Win Energy Solution For Drought-Stricken US Lakes. (online) The Guardian. (Accessed 8th December 2020).

Biesbroek, Robin. https://web.archive.org/ web/20140917225027/http://space-env.esa.int/ indico/getFile.py/access?resId=0&materialId=s lides&confId=46 Accessed: 04-10-20 CPUOS “The UN Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines.” https://web.archive.org/ web/20111006081815/http://orbitaldebris.jsc. nasa.gov/library/Space%20Debris%20Mitigation%20Guidelines_COPUOS.pdf . Accessed: 04-10-20

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MEET THE CONTRIBUTORS!

T

homas Wallace is a Physics and Astrophysics student at Glasgow University. In his free time he enjoys playing the piano and programming annoying discord bots.

With regards to the COP26 he told us that “I for one support the COP26 because asthmatic hayfever-ridden scientists like myself are not well suited for the collapse of civilisation.” He later added, “Climate change is the perfect apocalypse so the COP26 is one of our best opportunities to avoid discovering just how bad it can get.”

A

listair Williams has just completed a Masters in Environment, Culture and Society at Lancaster University, combining postgraduate Sociology and Environmental modules.

He told us that “I wrote a dissertation during this Masters about the proposed Eden Project North in Morecambe, which is set to open in 2024. I have spent the last academic year working as a College lecturer and will be doing a PGCE at Keele University in September."


Z

oe Harvey studies Physics with Astrophysics at the University of Glasgow. Her interests include buying too many books and sewing historically accurate gowns.

She told us that “I have a keen interest in astronomy and astrophysics, and how we can use the knowledge gained by studying the universe to help our current situation. COP26 will be a great stepping stone to help unite politics and science in a way that maximises our potential to help our planet."

K

itty Attwood studies Geography at Oxford. She’s particularly interested in climate research.

She had this to say about the COP26. "It is clear that current climate efforts are falling short of what is required to meet the Paris Agreement; if COP26 doesn’t adequately address this then a 3ºC warmer world will be our reality, rather than an imagined scenario as

is explored by the World + 3 Journal. I’d really like to see COP26 address the gap between climate pledges and the practicalities of their implementation. Issues of climate justice are also paramount so I hope the conference addresses inequalities between countries’ contributions to climate change and their abilities to invest in adaptation and mitigation strategies to address climate impacts. In addition, as I hope I conveyed in my article on infectious diseases and climate change, factors such as climate, health and land use are inherently complex and interlinked. Ignoring these connections fails to highlight both the severity of impacts and the possibility for holistic approaches to climate mitigation and adaption, so I think it's important for the summit to acknowledge the interconnected nature of climate impacts. COP26 has huge potential to address these issues at a crucial time for climate policy, so I’m excited to see how the conference unfolds."

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R

hys Mawby is a 21 year old graduate originally from Leicester, but now living in Dumfries. He has just finished a Bachelor's degree in Environmental Resource Management at SRUC Edinburgh/The University of Edinburgh. He currently wants to do a Master's degree in a similar subject, though he wants to take some time off first. Here is what he had to say about writing for the journal; "As I progressed throughout my studies I became more aware and conscious about the world and environment that we live in, and how urgent it is becoming to start taking action to save our planet from a climate crisis before it's too late. I also have a learning disability, I have Asperger’s Syndrome (a form of Autism) meaning I think and learn differently to other people but also creates more of a challenge to learn, socialise and take advantage of new and useful things sometimes. But I am determined to not let it get the better of me, and see my condition as an advantage. This is the other reason why I took the time to do this, I wanted to prove myself capable."


This Volume could only have been compliled with the assistance of editors Thomas Wallace, Sophie Mallett and Kirsty Campbell, and the contributors, along with Dr Tilly Collins and Tom Llewellyn as well as Sarah Currier at the Glasgow Centre for Sustainable Solutions. This project was also made possible through the kind contributions of the 2050 Climate Group’s 2050x fund. All articles were written in the Autumn of 2020, so all information is correct as of that date. Created, produced and designed by Isobel Thomas-Horton. More work avaliable at ithportfolio.carrd.co.

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