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Figure 2.14b …has been around 2 percent per capita for high-income regions… 10-year per capita income growth rates, percent per year, 1970–2005 10 Japan

9 8

Korea, Rep. of

7 6 5 High-income countries

4 3 2

United States

1

EU15

04 20

02 20

00

98

20

96

19

19

94 19

92 19

90 19

88 19

86 19

84 19

82 19

80 19

78 19

76

74

19

72

19

19

19

70

0

Source: World Bank DDP.

Figure 2.14c …and much more volatile in developing countries 10-year per capita income growth rates, percent per year, 1970–2005 8 6

East Asia and the Pacific South Asia

4 2

All developing countries

0 Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa

⫺2

Middle East and North Africa

Europe and Central Asia

04 20

02 20

00

98

20

19

96 19

94 19

92 19

90 19

88 19

86 19

84 19

82 19

80 19

78 19

76

74

19

19

72 19

19

70

⫺4

Source: World Bank DDP.

and 1970 in per capita terms. By 2005, the growth rate for developing countries had accelerated to 3.4 percent. If instead of the 3.1 percent growth in per capita incomes assumed for developing countries in the central scenario, developing countries were to grow at their average for the entire 25-year period of 1.9 percent (with world growth a meager 1.4 percent), their incomes

would be about 25 percent lower per capita. This translates into a reduction of GDP in 2030 by some $5.5 trillion, nearly $800 per person. This would be disappointing, and it underscores the importance of competent collective global economic management—and well-conceived domestic policies. Still, it would take a sharp set of shocks to depress growth rates to this level. And only if

53

Global Economic Prospects 2007  

Managing the Next Wave of Globalization

Global Economic Prospects 2007  

Managing the Next Wave of Globalization

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