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T H E

C O M I N G

G L O B A L I Z A T I O N

Figure 2.1 World trade has expanded dramatically… Export to GDP elasticity

Export to GDP share (%)

3.0

30

2.5

25

Share

Elasticity

04 20

02 20

00

98

20

96

19

94

19

19

92 19

90 19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

88

0

86

0

84

5

82

0.5

80

10

78

1.0

76

15

74

1.5

72

20

70

2.0

Sources: World Bank Development Data Platform (DDP) and staff calculations. Note: Elasticity is calculated as the percent change in real exports relative to the percent change in real GDP. The export share is calculated in nominal dollar terms. Data are smoothed using five-year moving averages.

Figure 2.2 …and become more diversified… Share of developing-country exports, by broad commodity grouping Percent 100 80 60 40 20 0 1962

1967

Agriculture & Food

1972 Minerals & Fuel

1977

1982 Chemicals

1987 Textile & Apparel

1992

1997

Machinery & Equipment

2002 Other

Source: World Bank World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS).

and moves by China and India to open their economies and pursue an export-led strategy. Other countries also abandoned inwardlooking strategies and saw their exports jump. A large part of the opening of domestic economies can be attributed to unilateral decisions, as in China and India, but regional and

multilateral reductions were also important in promoting global trade. Multilateral negotiations under the guise of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)—now the World Trade Organization (WTO)— undertook stepwise reductions in trade policies known as rounds, the latest of which, the

31

Global Economic Prospects 2007  

Managing the Next Wave of Globalization

Global Economic Prospects 2007  

Managing the Next Wave of Globalization

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