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P R O S P E C T S
Table 1.3
F O R
T H E
G L O B A L
E C O N O M Y
Developing regions: growth and related indicators Growth year-over-year
Seasonally adjusted annualized growth
Growth year-over-year
Indicator
2006
2007
Q108
Q208
Q308
H108
Latest
GDP growth (percent) Developing countries East Asia and the Pacific South Asia Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
7.7 10.1 9.0 7.5 5.6 5.3 5.9
7.9 10.5 8.4 7.1 5.7 5.8 6.3
7.5 9.4 11.3 8.8 4.4 4.0 4.9
5.3 9.2 2.9 ⫺1.2 5.4 3.8 5.2
— — — — — — —
6.9 9.0 8.3 5.9 5.3 4.0 4.5
— — — — — — —
Industrial production Developing countries East Asia and the Pacific South Asia Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
8.8 13.0 10.6 7.6 4.3 ⫺0.8 3.9
9.7 15.0 9.1 6.9 4.3 ⫺0.5 5.8
10.6 18.3 9.5 5.9 0.2 8.6 ⫺2.1
9.6 17.1 1.1 3.3 0.4 3.5 15.6
ⴚ2.4 0.2 ⫺4.1 ⫺9.8 3.6 ⫺0.2 ⫺9.3
9.2 14.7 6.1 5.1 3.4 3.6 6.5
5.0 10.2 1.0 0.3 2.2 3.5 4.7
Consumer pricesa Developing countries East Asia and the Pacific South Asia Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
6.2 5.1 7.6 5.6 5.6 5.1 6.2
6.1 5.3 7.6 8.0 6.5 7.2 6.0
8.6 7.7 10.1 11.0 8.8 11.2 8.2
10.4 9.5 11.0 11.3 9.7 10.8 10.4
9.9 8.2 22.0 11.0 7.5 12.7 11.3
9.5 8.6 10.6 11.2 9.3 11.0 9.3
9.9 8.2 22.0 11.0 7.5 12.7 11.3
Export volumesa Developing countries East Asia and the Pacific South Asia Europe & Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean
13.9 19.2 4.8 11.8 6.9
14.6 18.7 9.0 11.8 4.5
14.0 16.2 13.8 14.3 0.7
13.8 17.0 9.4 10.3 ⫺2.5
— 17.1 12.8 — ⫺11.4
14.0 16.2 13.8 14.3 ⫺0.7
— 19.2 10.5 — ⫺5.4
Source: National Statistical Agencies through Haver Analytics. Note: Growth rates at annual or annualized rates, unless otherwise indicated. Consumer prices for regions are medians. Quarterly 2008 growth for developing regions is based on data available for key economies. No data on export volumes for South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are available. East Asia and Pacific: China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. South Asia: India. Europe and Central Asia: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russian Federation, and Turkey. Latin America and the Caribbean: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico. Middle East and North Africa: Arab Republic of Egypt. SubSaharan Africa: Nigeria, and South Africa. a. Quarterly data, year-over-year growth.
inflation. Developing-country GDP growth is projected to decline to 4.5 percent in 2009, more than 3 percentage points below the average of the past five years (figure 1.12). No region or country is likely to escape this growth recession. Recovery in 2010 to a 6.1 percent advance is predicated upon a relatively quick improvement in financial and growth conditions among the high-income countries, a prospect currently subject to a high degree of uncertainty.
Growth outcomes for 2009 are anticipated to vary significantly across developing countries and regions, depending on their reliance on external flows and bank lending to finance investment, trade links to deeply affected high-income countries, direct and indirect exposures to the subprime mortgage crisis, and the degree of participation of foreign banks in the domestic financial sector. Moreover, policy responses to the crisis will play a large role in shaping the near-term economic outlook.
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