percent of the investment loans (49 percent by commitments) were focused on growth and productivity, versus 28 percent of the DPLs (27 percent by commitments). Over time, the total number of DPLs in the evaluation portfolio has increased, particularly in agriculture-based economies and in Sub-Saharan Africa (appendix figures B.3b, c). Performance of projects in the evaluation portfolio, measured against their stated objectives, was comparable with those of all Bank projects over the decade. Seventy-seven percent of projects with agriculture activities had moderately satisfactory or better outcomes compared with 79 percent Bank-wide. Seventy-three percent of projects with agriculture activities had likely sustainability compared to 76 percent Bank-wide.
Outcome ratings for agriculture projects were comparable to those for nonagriculture projects, but their sustainability was lower. Outcome ratings for the agriculture-focused projects in the evaluation portfolio were also the same as non-agriculture Bank projects over the decade, though their sustainability was lower (appendix figure B.4). Though only 67 percent of the agriculture-focused DPLs were rated satisfactory compared with 79 percent of the agriculture-focused investment operations, the difference is not significant. The achievements on the reforms related to the agriculture sector in these DPLs, which usually also included reforms in gure 2.1
sectors other than agriculture, were broadly in line with the overall outcome rating. The outcome ratings of the agriculture-focused projects in the evaluation portfolio declined in the second part of the evaluation period, from 80 percent moderately satisfactory or better in fiscal 1998–2001 to 65 percent in fiscal 2002–08 (figure 2.7), while the performance of nonagriculture projects did not change. Performance of DPLs Bank-wide improved from 74 percent rated moderately satisfactory or better between fiscal 1998 and 2001 to 83 percent moderately satisfactory or better between fiscal 2002 and 2008, while performance of agriculture-focused DPLs declined from 82 percent moderately satisfactory or better to 57 percent between fiscal 2002 and 2008, driven to a large extent by the weaker performance of DPLs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Problems in the performance of the agriculture portfolio appear to be concentrated primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa. The agriculture-focused projects performed better than the nonagriculture ones in Europe and Central Asia, but worse than the nonagriculture projects in Sub-Saharan Africa (figure 2.8.A). The performance of agriculture-focused investment operations and DPLs was similar, but below average in Sub-Saharan Africa. These results suggest that the Bank’s agriculture activities face unique challenges in the poorer countries, which may help to explain the Bank’s declining engagement until the recent uptick. Poor performance was certainly a factor in IFC moving away from agribusiness projects in the early part of the evaluation period. As shown
FIGURE 2.7 Performance of World Bank Projects by Period, Fiscal 1998–2001 and 2002–08 A. Agriculture-focused projects
B. Nonagriculture projects
80
100 80 65
60 40 20
Percent satisfactory
Percent satisfactory
100
80
78
80
N = 874
N = 478
60 40 20
N = 100
N = 26
0
0 1998–2001
2002–08
Approval fiscal year
1998–2001
2002–08
Approval fiscal year
Sources: World Bank data and evaluation calculations. Note: Difference is statistically significant for the agriculture-focused projects. The agriculture-focused projects are those that included increasing agricultural growth and productivity among their objectives. The nonagriculture projects are all the others, including those outside the evaluation portfolio. All rating comparisons over the two periods (including those of DPLs discussed above) are based on data available as of May 5, 2010.
Strategy and Interventions
|
17