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A Midterm That Matters
By Nathaniel Perkins There is no doubt that 2010 will be the most important midterm election in at least two decades, if not longer than that. President Obama’s team at Organizing for America would have you believe this importance stems from what it will mean for his agenda in the 112th Congress. That is not the reason. The real cause that makes 2010 so important is summed up in one word: redistricting. As most readers doubtless already know, the federal government is mandated by the Constitution to count everyone living in the US once a decade. This count takes the form of the census, and is done at the start of every decade. (The DC government would prefer I urge you to make sure to fill your form out and return it.) These counts shape a large portion of future policy, as they are essential for distributing federal funding as well as Congressional seats. Once the Census Bureau finishes the count, they use some fancy math to calculate how many seats in the House of Representatives each state should have. To this point, everything is relatively apolitical. The intense partisanship takes place in each state, as any state awarded more than one seat must draw district lines to form districts, an inevitably controversial process. A very small number of states have turned this function over to independent boards, leaving about 40 states with partisan districting processes. These are controlled initially by the state legislature, and can be vetoed by the Governor. Unfriendly legislatures can combine opposition districts, pack together voters of one party, or strategically split up groups to limit their influence. The ability to decide where district lines are drawn is why races for Governor are the most important going on in the nation today. In 2010, there will be 37 governorships in play, including the top five most populous states. Combined with the significant population shift out of the northeast that has taken place over the past
decade, this means that the redistricting process in 2011 is incredibly important. While official census decisions on which states will gain and lose representation in the House will not be released for another year, expert predictions based on yearly population numbers are reliable indicators of where the most intense redistricting—and gerrymandering— efforts will take effect.
Texas is the biggest winner, expected to add four seats to their already massive haul. The redistricting process has historically been extremely partisan in Texas, with Tom DeLay’s famous 2004 gerrymandering being only the latest example. The power given to those drawing the lines is further amplified by the vast expanse of land and skyrocketing number of people, allowing for lots of flexibility to arrive at the perfect partisan make-up to produce the results the Governor wants. The expected battle makes the upcoming election between incumbent Governor Rick Perry and ex-Houston Mayor Bill White that much more important. The winner of that race could easily control the mapping of eight House seats—more than enough to stymie President Obama’s second term agenda. Florida is another important state for both parties, as many expect it to add two seats to its Congressional delegation. State CFO Alex Sink and Attorney General Bill McCollum have been going negative on each other for months
already, and it will only intensify as outside money pours in, hoping to control the outcomes of another five seats. A Democratic sweep in New York, Florida, and Texas is not unimaginable based on the enthusiasm surrounding Sink’s campaign and excitement the national media is treating White’s with (as well as the seemingly unstoppable New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo). This could result in a swing of almost 20 seats to the Democratic Party, which would put them at an advantage for the next decade. Other states that are expected to gain or lose seats include Ohio, New Mexico, and Arizona. Each of these features a competitive governor’s race with unpopular incumbents favoring the challenger. From these and other smaller states alone, a swing of up to ten additional House seats is possible. Democratic losses across the board could mean devastation for President Obama’s agenda and the nation’s economic recovery. Wins could mean a generation of success for the Democratic Party, as well as a certifiable stable of formidable Presidential contenders for years to come, as governorships are a sought after credential. California, out in front nationally as usual, has instituted an independent commission of citizens that is charged with drawing boundaries apolitically. While Democrats have complained about California’s commission, because they will no longer be in charge, removing the polarization is the kind of change needed to right America’s ship. With more moderate districts nationally, more moderate Congressmen would emerge, and maybe (just maybe) there would be no more talk of “death panels” and accusations of socialism.