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Prosperity Mine Survey July 26, 2010 Hamish I. Marshall – Chief Research Officer


Overview • Executive Summary • Methodology • Detailed Results – Awareness of Prosperity Mine – Federal Approval of the Mine – Impacts of the Mine – Agree with the Provincial EA? – Overall Attitude towards Mining and the Environment 2


Executive Summary • •

• • •

• • • •

3

200 interviews were conducted by telephone between July 20 and July 22, 2010 – 100 in each of Williams Lake and 100 Mile House. Awareness of the issue is extremely high in Williams Lake – but is considerably lower in 100 Mile House More than twice as many people want the federal cabinet to approve the mine (61%) as do not want it approved (26%). A plurality of all demographics want the mine approved. Support for the project increases with age. Based on how people voted in the last federal election a significant majority of Conservatives and Liberals support approval, as a do a majority of NDP voters 81% see positive economic impacts from the mine, but 54% see negative environmental impacts. A plurality (43%) think the project will have a positive economic impact but a negative environmental impact. These people are more likely to be younger men and middle-aged women as well as Conservative voters. A clear majority say that the economic and social benefits outweigh the loss of the lake. In terms of mining development in the Cariboo, a majority prefer more jobs even if it means negative environmental impacts. This view is more common among men as well as Conservatives, but even two in five NDP voters agree.


Methodology Overall

Williams Lake

200 respondents

100 respondents

Margin of Error:

Margin of Error:

+/- 6.9% Field Dates: July 20 to 22, 2010 Results are weighted by age and gender to latest StatsCan figures

+/- 9.8%

100 Mile House 100 respondents Margin of Error:

+/- 9.5%

Prosperity Mine

4


DETAILED RESULTS


Awareness of Prosperity Mine Awareness of the issue is extremely high in Williams Lake – but lower in 100 Mile House 100% 19%

80%

37% 56%

22%

60% 27%

40% 20% %

41% 33%

24% 11%

7% 4%

18%

Overall

Williams Lake

100 Mile House

I haven’t heard anything

I have heard a little

I have a heard a moderate amount

6 M1. In the past two months how much have you heard, read or seeing anything about the

proposed Prosperity gold-copper mine west of Williams Lake?

I have heard a lot


Awareness of Prosperity Mine • For a public policy issue awareness of the project is extremely high in Williams Lake – 89% have heard a lot or a moderate amount about the Prosperity Mine (by way of comparison name recognition for a premier is usually around 80 to 85%) • Awareness is considerably lower in 100 Mile House – only 41% have heard a lot of a moderate amount about the Prosperity Mine. This lower level of awareness in 100 Mile House manifests itself through out the survey with higher “not sure” responses than Williams lake on every question. 7


Federal Approval of the Mine More than twice as many people want the federal cabinet to approve the mine as do not want it approved. 100% 80% 34%

40%

40%

27%

22%

20%

13%

20%

13%

12%

14%

Overall

Williams Lake

100 Mile House

28%

60%

%

32% 7%

I strongly believe the federal cabinet should NOT approve the mine I moderately believe the federal cabinet should NOT approve the mine I moderately believe the federal cabinet should approve the mine I strongly believe the federal cabinet should approve the mine Note: Columns do not add up to 100%, because those answering “not sure� are not displayed 8

M2. Based on what you know about the proposed Prosperity gold-copper mine should the federal cabinet give approval for its construction? Which of the following statements best describes your opinion?


Federal Approval of the Mine A plurality of all demographics want the mine approved. Support for the project increases with age. 100% 80% 34%

32% 36%

60% 40% 20% %

27%

34%

21%

43% 30%

28%

30%

26%

13%

21%

13%

9%

Overall

Men

6% 17%

Women

22% 25%

15%

4%

9%

12%

16%

18 to 34

35 to 54

55 and over

I strongly believe the federal cabinet should NOT approve the mine I moderately believe the federal cabinet should NOT approve the mine I moderately believe the federal cabinet should approve the mine I strongly believe the federal cabinet should approve the mine Note: Columns do not add up to 100%, because those answering “not sure� are not displayed 9

M2. Based on what you know about the proposed Prosperity gold-copper mine should the federal cabinet give approval for its construction? Which of the following statements best describes your opinion?


Federal Approval of the Mine Based on how people voted in the last federal election a significant majority of Conservatives and Liberals support approval, as a do a majority of NDP voters 100% 80% 34%

50%

33%

26%

60% 30%

35%

40%

27%

20%

13%

16%

10%

13%

9%

12%

%

21%

16%

Overall

18%

Conservative Party of Liberal Party of Canada New Democratic Party of Canada Canada (NDP) I strongly believe the federal cabinet should NOT approve the mine I moderately believe the federal cabinet should NOT approve the mine I moderately believe the federal cabinet should approve the mine I strongly believe the federal cabinet should approve the mine

Note: Columns do not add up to 100%, because those answering “not sure� are not displayed 10

M2. Based on what you know about the proposed Prosperity gold-copper mine should the federal cabinet give approval for its construction? Which of the following statements best describes your opinion?


Impacts of the Mine 81% see positive economic impacts, but 54% see negative environmental impacts Economic

100%

Environmental

100%

7%

6%

80%

31%

40%

40%

47%

41%

17%

60%

11%

14%

40%

33%

30%

21%

25%

Overall

Williams Lake

34%

20%

%

18%

17%

49%

60%

5%

80%

9%

37%

20% 4% 6% 5%

5% 5% 4%

3% 6% 5%

Overall

Williams Lake

100 Mile House

18%

%

Strongly negative impact

Moderately negative impact

Moderately positive impact

Strongly positive impact

No impact at all

Note: Columns do not add up to 100%, because those answering “not sure� are not displayed M3. What economic impact do you think the proposed Prosperity mine will have on the Cariboo? M4. What environmental impact do you think the proposed Prosperity mine will have on the Cariboo?

100 Mile House


Impacts of the Mine A plurality think the project will have a positive economic impact and a negative environmental impact.

39%

43%

3% 3%

12%

0%

Positive Positive Economic/Negative Environmental Negative Economic/Positive Environmental Negative No Impact No opinion

Who are these people? • Are more aware of the project • More likely to moderately support the federal cabinet approving the mine. • 60% of them support the mine, showing they place a priority on potential economic gains. • Slightly more likely to live in Williams Lake than 100 Mile House. • More likely to be younger men and middle aged women • More likely to have voted Conservative in the last federal election

12 M3. What economic impact do you think the proposed Prosperity mine will have on the Cariboo? M4. What environmental impact do you think the proposed Prosperity mine will have on the Cariboo?


Agree with the Provincial EA? A majority say that the economic and social benefits outweigh the loss of the lake 100% 80% 27%

27%

25%

31%

26%

60% 40% 20%

14%

19% 14%

14%

18%

15%

Overall

Williams Lake

22%

0%

100 Mile House

The loss of the lake strongly outweighs the economic and social benefits The loss of the lake moderately outweighs the economic and social benefits The economic and social benefits moderately outweigh the loss of the lake The economic and social benefits strongly outweigh the loss of the lake Note: Columns do not add up to 100%, because those answering “not sure� are not displayed 13

M5. Part of the construction of the proposed Prosperity Mine involves a lake and nearby meadows being converted into a tailings pond, but the provincial environmental process said that this loss was outweighed by the economic and social benefits of the mine, which include significant numbers of jobs and investment in the region. Which of the following statements is closest to your opinion?


Overall Attitude towards Mining and the Environment 100%

80% 57%

58%

56%

43%

42%

44%

Overall

Williams Lake

100 Mile House

60%

40%

20%

0%

Preserving the environment in the Cariboo is more important than some mining jobs. Getting more mining jobs in the Cariboo is more important than some negative environmental impacts. M6. Some people say the Cariboo needs more mines to bring good jobs and economic stability, even it if it means some

14 negative environmental impacts, while other people say that the Cariboo needs less mines because they are damaging to the environment, even if it means less jobs. Which of the following statements is closest your point of view.


Overall Attitude towards Mining and the Environment Men are more likely to choose mining jobs over environmental impacts than Women 100% 80% 57%

61%

43%

39%

Overall

Men

53%

61%

52%

60%

60%

40%

20%

47%

39%

48%

40%

0%

Women

18 to 34

35 to 54

55 and over

Preserving the environment in the Cariboo is more important than some mining jobs. Getting more mining jobs in the Cariboo is more important than some negative environmental impacts. M6. Some people say the Cariboo needs more mines to bring good jobs and economic stability, even it if it means some

15 negative environmental impacts, while other people say that the Cariboo needs less mines because they are damaging to the environment, even if it means less jobs. Which of the following statements is closest your point of view.


Overall Attitude towards Mining and the Environment Majority of Conservatives and Liberals prefer mining jobs, as do two in five NDP voters 100% 80%

42% 57%

66%

57%

60%

40% 58%

20%

43%

34%

43%

0% Overall

Conservative Party of Liberal Party of Canada New Democratic Party of Canada Canada (NDP) Preserving the environment in the Cariboo is more important than some mining jobs. Getting more mining jobs in the Cariboo is more important than some negative environmental impacts. M6. Some people say the Cariboo needs more mines to bring good jobs and economic stability, even it if it means some

16 negative environmental impacts, while other people say that the Cariboo needs less mines because they are damaging to the environment, even if it means less jobs. Which of the following statements is closest your point of view.


Abingdon Research Inc. Hamish I. Marshall, Chief Research Officer 778-835-3715 hmarshall@abingdon.ca


Prosperity mine survey results