Page 1

State of the Workforce


Mid-Valley Workforce Report 2019

The Willamette Valley has a vibrant economy and prosperous communities through a dynamic, engaged, and innovative workforce.

2

WI LLAME TTE WORKFORCE PARTNERSHIP


Greetings! Welcome to our updated report on the State of the Workforce in the Mid-Willamette Valley! We are excited to share this insightful information with our community. At Willamette Workforce Partnership (WWP), we strive through collaboration, training and outreach, to efficiently drive results that lead to a skilled workforce, successful employers, and thriving communities. We work toward accomplishing this mission by providing workforce services to businesses, job seekers and youth in Linn, Marion, Polk and Yamhill counties. This work is governed by the federal Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act. We don’t do all this in a vacuum – we do it against the backdrop of what is happening in the economy. This report describes economic trends, both short term and long term. The goal of the report is to give readers an informed context for the work of the Willamette Workforce Partnership, and provide some insight into the challenges we face. Kim Parker-Llerenas Executive Director

The short story is that historically low unemployment rates are driving the economy, job seekers are in great demand, and businesses are having a difficult time filling job vacancies. Longer term trends are complicating this picture. Service sector jobs paying lower wages continue to dominate our industry mix. In spite of low unemployment rates, many youth still struggle with learning life skills and completing their education. The unskilled and untrained are unemployed in greater numbers than average, and conversely, the returns on education, skills and training are high. WWP is constantly challenged by these trends to appropriately design the services we provide to employers, job seekers and youth. Add one important fact to this mix. Federal funding for workforce services, begun in 1962, has been steadily declining, in real dollar terms, since the late 1970s. We have seen a 40% decrease in funds since 2009. We have to work smarter with fewer dollars and be innovative in responding to this trend. We look forward to our continued work with employers, job seekers and young people in addressing their workforce needs. Growing businesses and thriving families are the backbone of a vibrant economy.

Thank you and enjoy the report!

S TAT E O F T H E WO R K FO RC E | OCTO B ER 2 0 1 9

3


Unemployment is at Historic Lows The Mid-Valley’s unemployment rate has steadily declined after peaking at nearly 12 percent during the Great Recession. Throughout 2019, the unemployment rate has remained at historically low levels.

MID VALLEY OREGON U.S.

12% 10% 8%

4%

6% 4% 2%

1990

4

1994

WI LLAME TTE WORKFORCE PARTNERSHIP

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018


Who is Unemployed? Even with the low unemployment rate, several long-term trends persist. Young people aged 16-24 have high unemployment rates, a decades-long trend. Fewer youth now have parttime and summer jobs while in high school than years ago, in part accounting for the lack of life skills needed to succeed at work, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics research.

Younger workers in Oregon have higher unemployment rates than older workers. The disparity in unemployment rates by education is another long- term trend. When the rate was high, disparities were large. Now that the rate is low, disparities are smaller. However, those with some college or bachelor’s degrees still have lower unemployment rates than those with less education.

Unemployment by Education 20%

2018 | Oregon

Rate %

16 — ­­ 19 YRS.

12.5%

20 ­­— 24 YRS.

6.4%

25 — ­­ 34 YRS.

4.5%

35 ­­— 44 YRS.

3.6%

45 — 54 YRS.

3.4%

55 — 64 YRS.

2.7%

65+ YRS.

3.7%

Less than high school diploma

10%

High school diploma, no college Some college

2%

Bachelor’s degree or higher

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

S TAT E O F T H E WO R K FO RC E | OCTO B ER 2 0 1 9

5


The Rise of Service Industries and Decline of Goods-Producing Industries The growth of service industries, (financial services, retail, health care, transportation and warehousing) and the decline of goods-producing industries, (manufacturing, agriculture,

logging and mining) have been on-going trends in the U.S. and Oregon’s economy for decades. The result of these trends is that skills and education are more important than ever.

100%

80% OREGON SERVICE PROVIDING

60% U.S. SERVICE PROVIDING

40%

20%

U.S. GOODS PRODUCING OREGON GOODS PRODUCING

1950

6

WI LLAME TTE WORKFORCE PARTNERSHIP

1984

1990

2018


Education Pays The increase in service industry jobs and the decline of goods-producing jobs, have consequences for job seekers, employers, and workforce programs. Education beyond high school, licensure, and/or training is more important now to being employed at a good wage than in the past.

Many jobs in goods-producing industries such as manufacturing pay well, but require specific skills and knowledge. Service industry jobs run the gamut from dishwashers, retail sales clerks, hotel managers, lawyers, nurses and doctors. Higher wage jobs in service industries typically require educa-

tion beyond high school, licensure, training, and/or a combination of these. The mix of service and goods-producing industries in the Mid-Valley affects the type of jobs available to job-seekers, skills needed by employers and the work of the Willamette Workforce Partnership.

Many jobs in goods-producing industries such as manufacturing pay well, but require specific skills and knowledge.�

Earnings by Education | U.S. 2019 $1500 $1,357

Avg. Weekly Earnings

$1250 $848

$1000

$750

$751 $588

$500

Less than High School

High School, No College

Some College or Associates

Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

S TAT E O F T H E WO R K FO RC E | OCTO B ER 2 0 1 9

7


2018 Employment in the Mid-Valley by Industry The economy of the Mid-Valley is similar to that of Oregon and the U.S. in its mix of service industries and goods-producing industries with one exception. Salem is the state capital, and government employment is nearly a quarter of all employment. Transportation, including distribution, is a growth industry as evidenced by huge warehouses sprouting up along the I-5 corridor, the latest addition being a one million square foot Amazon distribution facility.

Industry Mid-Valley 2018 Construction Government

Natural Resources & Mining

Health care is the only industry sector that did not shed jobs during the Great Recession. It continues to grow and be an important part of the Mid-Valley economy. There are 30,402 jobs in manufacturing in the Mid-Valley, It is the only Mid-Valley industry that has yet to recover it’s prerecession employment peak.

Manufacturing

Other Service Trade, Transportation & Utilities Leisure & Hospitality

Information

Private Education & Health Services Professional & Business Services

24%

10%

6%

3%

16%

8%

6%

1%

15%

7%

4%

Government

Trade, Transportation & Utilities

Private Education & Health Services

8

Financial Activities

WI LLAME TTE WORKFORCE PARTNERSHIP

Manufacturing

Leisure & Hospitality

Professional & Business Services

Construction

Natural Resources & Mining

Other Services

Financial Activities

Information


Where will the Jobs be in the Mid-Valley over the next 10 Years? The Oregon Employment Department (OED) projects that most job openings in Mid-Valley industries over the next ten years will be replacement openings, due to employees retiring. OED also projects that, in order to be competitive for about half of all job openings, some education beyond high school will be needed. Five of the ten fastest growing occupations in the Mid-Valley are in health care. These generally pay well and require considerable education and/or training. These are: Physical Therapy Assistants, Physical Therapy Aides, EMTs, Physicians Assistants, and Nurses. Occupations with the most number of future job openings are those which are largely unskilled, and pay lower wages. Some of these are: Retail Salespersons, Cashiers, Waiters and Waitresses, Office Clerks and Janitors.

Occupational Openings, 2017-2027 Mid-Valley Workforce Area GROWTH

REPLACEMENT

Service Office & Admin Support Sales & Related Professional & Related Transportation & Material Moving Management , Business & Financial Farming, Fishing & Forestry Production Health Care Construction & Extraction Installation, Maintenance & Repair

10K

20K

30K

40K

50K

60K

70K

80K

90K

S TAT E O F T H E WO R K FO RC E | OCTO B ER 2 0 1 9

100K

9


What Does All This Mean for Mid-Valley Employers? Employers are having a difficult time filling job vacancies. September 2019 was the 17th consecutive month nation-wide in which there were more job vacancies than job applicants, a record since job vacancies were first counted in 2000. Mid-Valley employers are struggling too. According to the Oregon Employment

Department’s Job Vacancy Survey of July 2019, a lack of job applicants was the most common reason for difficulty filling vacancies. Some employers are starting to offer higher wages and better benefits to attract job seekers. The occupations listed in the table below are the most difficult to fill for Mid-Valley employers. Some of these occupations

require skills and/or licensure, and others are occupations in the lower pay ranges. It should be noted that many of these difficult-to-fill jobs have been difficult to fill for decades. The historically low unemployment rate is exacerbating the problem.

Top Mid-Valley Difficult-to-Fill Occupations 2018

Vacancies

% Require Experience

Avg. Wage

Personal Care Aides

570

32%

$12.16

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

315

93%

$22.08

Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse

289

> 1%

$11.54

Production Workers, All Other

188

4%

$14.27

Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists

126

100%

$29.24

Painters, Construction and Maintenance

122

50%

$13.00

Electricians

99

100%

$30.64

Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food

92

> 1%

$10.75

Retail Salespersons

90

34%

$11.58

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing*

81

47%

$15.30

Construction Laborers

80

91%

$14.28

* Except Technical and Scientific Products

10

WI LLAME TTE WORKFORCE PARTNERSHIP


What Does All This Mean for the Willamette Workforce Partnership?

Willamette Workforce Partnership is responding to the short and long-term challenges described in this report in a number of ways:

▶ Many people who are unemployed in this tight labor market have

multiple barriers preventing them from becoming employed. As a response, Willamette Workforce Partnership has recently invested in six area non-profits to assist unemployed individuals with removing barriers to employment and help them through the workforce system to a job. This began on July 1, 2019. We anticipate that a number of successful innovations will come to light and continue.

▶ Several contractors around the state are using Willamette Workforce Partnership’s “Rethinking Careers and Job Search” workshops to address employment barriers of specialized populations.

▶ More than 300 job seekers last year took advantage of Willamette

Workforce Partnership’s funding to obtain post-secondary education and training, and then moved on to employment.

▶ WWP partners with employers to help them upgrade the skills of their With the anticipated decline of federal funding we are implementing bold and innovative ways to make the most of current funding, while looking for other funding options.” ­— Kim Parker-Llerenas Executive Director

current workforce. Twenty-three area manufacturing businesses pay dues to belong to the High Performance Consortium. Lean workshops, Leadership training and Excel classes are offered throughout the year for consortium members’ employees. Also, any company may apply for grants to skill-up current workers.

▶ Over the last year, Willamette Workforce Partnership has launched

sector partnership initiatives in three key Mid-Valley industries. These are Transportation, Warehousing and Distribution; Manufacturing; and Health Care. WWP acts as a convener of these industry-led problemsolving groups.

WANT TO LEARN MORE? If you have questions or would like information about supporting our mission please call or email us at: 503.581.1002 | info@WillWP.org

S TAT E O F T H E WO R K FO RC E | OCTO B ER 2 0 1 9

11


Willamette Workforce Partnership is implementing bold and innovative ways to continue to help businesses grow and families thrive�

WillWP.org

626 High Street NE, Suite 305 // Salem, Oregon 97301 // 503.581.1002

Profile for Willamette Workforce Partnership

State of the Workforce - Mid-Willamette Valley  

The Willamette Valley has a vibrant economy and prosperous communities through a dynamic, engaged, and innovative workforce. This report des...

State of the Workforce - Mid-Willamette Valley  

The Willamette Valley has a vibrant economy and prosperous communities through a dynamic, engaged, and innovative workforce. This report des...

Profile for willwp0
Advertisement