✓ THE PLANNER
i}À>« VÊÌÀ>ÃÌÊ`iÊ UÊ }ÕÀiÊÎ° The demographic transition model is derived from population trends in western Europe before, during, and after the Industrial Revolution. It consists of four stages.
Original Timeline Example: Europe
Birth rate/death rate
Death rate Low
Rate of Natural Increase Socioeconomic Conditions
Low Preindustrial This, historically, has been the longest stage. Life expectancy is short, perhaps 30 years, and mortality is high. High birth rates can be thought of as a parental strategy that increases the likelihood that some children will live to adulthood. Overall, there is little increase in population.
(None—no country today remains in Stage 1)
High Early Industrial
The birth rate remains high, but the death rate falls dramatically, producing rapid population growth. Medical advances and improved food distribution, urban water supplies, and public sanitation help account for declining death rates in this stage.
In conjunction with ongoing industrialization and urbanization, social needs (e.g., smaller families) and opportunities change (e.g., more women in the workforce), bringing a decline in birth rates. Population grows rapidly at first but slows over time.
The demographic transition is complete. Birth rates, death rates, and population growth are low. Low birth rates reflect higher levels of educational achievement, especially among women, and higher standards of living.
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Kenya, Guatemala
Indonesia, Algeria, India, Mexico
Canada, China, Germany, U.S.
the same, the global population will reach 13 billion people in 2067. The current rate of natural increase for Ethiopia is 2.4%, giving it a population doubling time of just 30 years. In contrast, Spain has a rate of natural increase of 0.2% and a population doubling time of 360 years. Why does the population doubling time matter?
Demographic Transition Model The demographic transition model grew out of several studies of population trends in Europe. Broadly, this model relates changes in the rate of natural increase to social change as a result of urbanization and industrialization. More speciﬁcally, it describes a common demographic shift
from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates over time (}ÕÀiÊÎ°). Using what you know about the relationship between the rate of natural increase and the demographic transition, you can refer again to Figure 3.8 to identify other countries that have stage 2, 3, or 4 proﬁles. More important than assigning a country to a speciﬁc stage is that we understand why a country has a certain demographic proﬁle. As we have seen, economic, social, and political factors affect demographics. In turn, these factors are bound up with development, a topic we discuss in greater detail in Chapter 9. Moreover, the demographic transition model has serious limitations. Because it does not take migration into account, it presents Population Composition and Change