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GNC Coalition Overview SWOT Analysis of the Great Northern Corridor

WPPA Environmental Committee

9.24.2015


Phase 1 Overview W P PA

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Work Plan & Deliverables • Task 1: Infrastructure and Operations Assessment • Task 2: GNC Website (www.greatnortherncorridor.org) • Task 3: Freight & Commodity Flow Analysis • Task 4: SWOT Analysis & Scenario Planning • Task 5: Economic & Environmental Impacts Analysis • Task 6: Freight System Initiatives & Project Analysis

• Task 7: Final Report / Action Plan W P PA

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Infrastructure & Operations Assessment

The corridor area is defined as all counties within 20 miles of the GNC. W P PA

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Infrastructure & Operations Assessment The Great Northern Corridor is…..

• 3,331 railroad mainline route miles; • 38 regional and shortline railways;

• 9 Interstate Highways, 11 U.S. highways, and many key state highways;

• 15 ports (deep water, lake, river and inland); • Intermodal facilities, border facilities, and;

• 2,322 road/rail at-grade crossings W P PA

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GNC Website • Developed an interactive website for public and GNC coalition members.

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Commodity Flow – Mode Share

Truck is the dominant mode in tonnage, while Rail is dominant in ton miles due to length of haul. Year of analysis is 2012. W P PA

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Commodity Flow - Mix

Corridor traffic is dominated by bulk commodities. Year of analysis is 2012. W P PA

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Commodity Forecasts - 2035

Rail Forecast

Truck Forecast 2030 Moderate Growth

2030 High Growth

Commodity Group Containers

2030 Units 8.3 million TEU*

Annual Growth Rate 4.1%

Breakbulk/Neo-bulk Grain & Related Products Dry Bulk

10.5 million tons 39.1 million tons

1.2% 0.7%

12.7 million tons 53.3 million tons

2.2% 2.3%

97.1 million tons

6.8%

155.3 million tons

9.3%

Liquid Bulk

42.4 million tons

0.2%

51.6 million tons

1.2%

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2030 Units 12.3 TEU

Annual Growth Rate 6.1%

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Port Forecast 9.24.2015


Trends and Issues

Adapted from: ICF International – NCHRP Project 20-80 (2): Long Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry

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Scenario Planning Workshop

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Strengths

Weaknesses

• End-to-end market reach and connectivity

• Land use constraints near ports

• Large, varied work force

• North-south connections • Volatility and changing trends in energy markets

• Port connectivity • Natural resources (ag, ore, energy) • Diversity: urban & rural

• Limited route redundancy in some areas

• Strong base transportation infrastructure • High value technology capital in mega-regions • Technology education centers corridor-wide W P PA

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Opportunities

• Higher capacity/efficiency via new or renovated infrastructure • Increase safety, efficiency, and community relations through improved rail crossings • Short line connections

• LNG/CNG for even cleaner rail • Technology as a means of increased safety and efficiency • Public outreach/education to increase public awareness about Corridor links E n v i r o n m e n t a l

• Public perceptions of railroad safety and of resource extraction industries • Work force development, training, and availability

• Energy product growth

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Threats • Environmental changes from potential climate change and natural disasters

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• Global supply chain shifts and how they might affect Corridor demand

• Social licensing requirements

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Economic Impact - States Corridor Impact on GNC State Economies (2012$)

State Idaho Illinois Minnesota Montana North Dakota Oregon Washington Wisconsin All GNC States

Total GSP $58,230 $704,137 $298,273 $42,139 $49,509 $210,243 $390,918 $272,086 $2,025,535

Freight Transportation Dependent GSP $24,708 $258,726 $117,235 $17,591 $28,133 $102,916 $139,808 $111,987 $801,104

GNC Freight Transportation Dependent Component $2,854 $163,387 $92,342 $3,831 $20,394 $67,268 $136,898 $10,742 $497,715

Percent of Freight Dependent GSP 11.6% 63.2% 78.8% 21.8% 72.5% 65.4% 97.9% 9.6% 62.1%

Percent of Total GSP 4.9% 23.2% 31.0% 9.1% 41.2% 32.0% 35.0% 3.9% 24.6%

The GNC Corridor plays a significant role in state economies! W P PA

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Economic Impact - National

Nationwide Economic Impact of GNC Rail Service (2012$) Employment (job years) 86,992 203,897

2012 Impacts Labor Income Total Value Added ($millions) ($millions) $1,532.4 $2,325.8 2035 Impacts $3,591.8 $5,451.4

Output ($millions) $3,979.5 $9,327,409

The GNC also stimulates jobs and the economy W P PA

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System Initiatives Number Projects with large investment needs‌.. There are a large number of of projects, Number of Projects in Phase I State identified report before scenario workshop Oregon 50 26 Washington 55 69 Idaho 13 12 Montana 0 1 Minnesota 11 13 North Dakota 0 6 Wisconsin 9 7 Illinois 2 3 Total 140 137

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System Initiatives Developed 5 Project Type Categories: Project Type Category

Project Category Attributes

1. Economic Development

a. Port terminal expansion/improvements b. Industrial park development/improvements

2. Community Impact and Safety Improvements

a. At-grade crossing safety improvements b. Rail-highway grade separations c. Rail relocation project

3. First/Last Mile Improvements

a. Intermodal connector improvements b. Roadway improvements, including interchange improvements, truck lanes, etc. c. Port access and connections

4. Rail Capacity Enhancements 5. Policies and Initiatives

a. Includes rail over rail grade separation and technology enhancements a. Supports the Great Northern Corridor Coalition’s stated policies and helps the Coalition strive toward the goals identified in its initiatives

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System Initiatives Example of Benefits/ Evaluation Criteria Detail Project Evaluation Criteria

Economic Development

        

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Assigned Weight

Examples Benefits/Evaluation Criteria

Provides land use benefits Creates jobs Increases tax revenues Spurs economic growth Demonstrates commercial demand, including volume commitments for customers Supports smart growth strategies of faster, more reliable service Provides improved rail access to industrial site Enhances business access Lowers shipping cost

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System Initiatives There are a large number of projects, with large investment needs‌.. Number of Projects identified Number of Projects in Phase I State before scenario report workshop Oregon 50 26 Washington 55 69 Idaho 13 12 Montana 0 1 Minnesota 11 13 North Dakota 0 6 Wisconsin 9 7 Illinois 2 3 Total 140 137

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System Initiatives • Project List and prioritization discussion Phase I Project List Summary

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2 2 12

3 1

1

4

5 3 30

1 8 23

12

42

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15 12 7 50

Total

Rail Capacity Enhancements

7

First/Last Mile Improvements

ID IL MN MT ND OR WA WI Total

Community Impact and Safety Improvements

Economic Development

Project Types

12 3 13 1 6 26 69 7 137

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Final Deliverables

• Final Report • Action Plan

• Executive Summary • Final Presentation


Key Takeaways W P PA

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Findings & Conclusions • The economies of the eight GNC states are highly dependent on transportation.

• Nearly 25% of the economies in the Northern Tier states is influenced by the GNC Corridor.

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Findings & Conclusions • The GNC provides significant public benefits by reducing motor carrier traffic on the nation’s highways and in the nation’s metropolitan areas. – In 2012, it is estimated that the GNC removed 7.8 million trucks from the national highway network. By 2035, that amount will more than double to 16.1 million trucks annually. – Avoiding those truck miles in 2012 produced $5.6 billion in public benefits across the nation. In 2035, the GNC is projected to generate $13.8 billion in public benefits from reduced truck travel.

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Findings & Conclusions • Part of that public benefit flows directly to the nation’s shippers and consumers. – In 2012, the cost of shipping was reduced by $2.7 billion in and is projected to reach $6.5 billion in 2035. This translates to $3.3 billion in GDP growth in 2012 and $10.5 billion in growth in 2035. • The GNC heavily supports the energy and agriculture industry as well as commerce at ports.

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Findings & Conclusions • This study was a critical first step to identify and analyze the Corridor in a local, regional and national context as well as demonstrate the public and private benefits the Corridor provides • It has strategically positioned the GNC Coalition to pursue critical actions steps and initiatives, such as a more comprehensive project evaluation system and a sustainable membership and growth plan W P PA

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Findings & Conclusions • The initiative shown by the Coalition has laid the foundation for healthy and productive near-term and long-term futures for the Corridor

• Positions the Corridor for future funding opportunities

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Phase 2 W P PA

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Members for Phase II: BNSF State DOT’s Idaho Minnesota Montana North Dakota Washington

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Ports: Everett Grays Harbor Longview Northern Montana Portland Quincy Seattle Tacoma Vancouver, USA WPPA

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Phase II Tasks: Task 1: Coalition Participation / Sustainability 1.1 Defining the GNC Coalition Business Model 1.2 Developing the Business Plan 1.3 Transition Assistance Deliverable: Tech Memo - Business Model Task 2: GNC Website 2.1 Enhancements 2.2 Future Enhancements and Maintenance Deliverables: new pages/ content/ etc.

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Phase II Tasks: Task 3: Stakeholder Participation Plan 3.1 Supply Chain Interviews 3.2 GNC Coalition Meetings 3.3 Public Forums and Events Deliverables: Stakeholder Plan and Interviews

Task 4: SWOT Analysis 4.1 Border Freight Analysis 4.2 Highway Freight Flows 4.3 Programmatic Corridor Initiatives 4.4 Threats Analysis Deliverables: 3 Tech Memos W P PA

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Phase II Tasks: Task 5: Planning Level Analysis and Project Identification 5.1 Refine Phase 1 Project List 5.2 Review and Refine Evaluation Criteria 5.3 Id and Analyze Priority Projects Deliverable: Tech Memo

Task 6: Findings and Recommendations • Draft Final Report • Final Report, Draft Exec. Sum and Presentation • Executive Summary & Action Plan • Final Presentation Materials W P PA

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Draft Schedule 2015 30-Sep

2015 31-Oct

2015 30-Nov

Task 1: Coalition Particiation / Sustainability 1.1 Defining the GNC Coalition Business Model 1.2 Developing the Business Plan 1.3 Transition Assistance Deliverable: Tech Memo - Business Model

2015 31-Dec

2016 31-Jan

2016 29-Feb

2016 31-Mar

2016 30-Apr

2016 31-May

2016 30-Jun

2016 31-Jul

2016 31-Aug

Throughout project life

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Task 2: GNC Website 2.1 Enhancements 2.2 Future Enhancements and Maintenance Deliverables: new pages/ content/ etc.

Throughout project life W!

Task 3: Stakeholder Participation Plan 3.1 Supply Chain Interviews 3.2 GNC Coaltion Meetings 3.3 Public Forums and Events As scheduled and approved. PIP Deliverables: Stakeholder Plan and Interviews

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Task 4: SWOT Analysis 4.1 Border Freight Analysis 4.2 Highway Freight Flows 4.3 Programmatic Corridor Iniitatives 4.4 Threats Analysis Deliverables: 3 Tech Memos

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Task 5: Planning Level Analysis and Project Identification 5.1 Refine Phase 1 Project List 5.2 Review and Refine Evaluation Criteria 5.3 Id and Analyze Priority Projects Deliverable: Tech Memo

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Task 6: Findings and Recommendations Draft Final Report Final Report, Draft Exec. Sum and Presentation Executive Summary & Action Plan Final Presentation Materials

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Initiatives W P PA

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Initiatives Initiatives: Long-term sustained efforts aimed at achieving particular goals that require planning in advance

• Grade Crossing Safety and Mobility Initiative – Develop a programmatic, Corridor approach to identify, prioritize, and fund grade crossing improvements such as closures, consolidations, and separations..

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Initiatives • Corridor-Wide Environmental Planning Initiative – Explore and develop a strategy to develop a Corridor environmental planning strategy that would help expedite permitting for stakeholder projects along the Corridor.

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Initiatives

• Unified Corridor Investment Program – Explore and develop a structured, comprehensive funding strategy to fund GNC projects.

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Obama Administration Releases New Permitting Tools for Federal Agencies The Obama Administration took steps yesterday to expedite the federal permitting process for infrastructure projects. It issued guidance for establishing metrics to be used by federal agencies, and it also upgraded the Federal Infrastructure Permitting Dashboard. No funding is attached to the new guidance or upgraded dashboard. Several port waterway and freight infrastructure projects are cited in the Federal Infrastructure Permitting Dashboard. The permitting dashboard is a tool that was developed by the Administration to publicly track the progress federal agencies are making in completing federal permitting and environmental review processes for proposed infrastructure projects. Increasing efficiency in the federal permitting process for infrastructure projects has been a focal point of the Obama Administration. An implementation plan, Improving Performance of Federal Permitting and Review of Infrastructure Projects, was released in May 2014, pursuant to Executive Order 13604, by an interagency Steering Committee outlining four major strategies, 15 reforms and 96 milestones for modernizing the federal permit and review processes. The metrics guidance for the permitting and environmental review of infrastructure projects applies to eleven federal agencies  Advisory Council on Historic Preservation  Department of Agriculture  Department of the Army  Department of Commerce  Department of Defense  Department of Energy  Department of Homeland Security  Department of Housing and Urban Development  Department of the Interior  Department of Transportation  Environmental Protection Agency For more information on how to include a project on the dashboard visit Build America Transportation Investment Center (BATIC), email Scott Davies or call (202) 366-0951. Staff Contact: John Young

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Thank You!

• Questions / Comments? • Project Manager:

:

– Mark Berndt, Quetica, LLC – Jeannie Beckett, The Beckett Group – mark.berndt@quetica.com – jbeckett@thebeckettgroup.org – Direct Phone: 651-964-4646, ext 857 – 253-905-8904 W P PA

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WPPA 2015 Env Seminar - GNCC Update, Beckett  
WPPA 2015 Env Seminar - GNCC Update, Beckett  
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