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速 速 Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for estate professionals property owners in Virginia. realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia.

2011 2012

Quarter QUARTER Quarter

Ssecond ECOND second

VIRGINIA VIRGINIA HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt Home


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q2

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2009

2010

2011

2012

10,000

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales

Single Family Homes, Townhomes, C

8,000

2009

2010

2011

2

12,000

6,000

4,000

10,000

2,000

0 January

Jan

February

Feb

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales mber of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

12,000

8,000

March

April

May

June

July Month

Mar 6,000 Apr

May

Jun

Jul

August

September October

November December

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales

Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Co

Aug

Sep

Oct

8,0182009 8,384

Nov

Dec

2010 7,892

2011 6,573

2009

4,758

5,391

6,740

7,212

8,096

9,849

2010

4,562

4,892

10,493

7,137

7,210

6,427

6,035

6,010

6,468

4,728

5,116

7,087 12,000 8,337 7,145 7,311

8,903

2011

8,391

9,223

7,970

8,136

6,916

6,264

6,072

6,759

2012

5,044

5,833

7,180 4,000 7,638

9,000

9,399

9,593

8,545

10,000 The pace of residential home sales increased significantly in Virginia during the second quarter of 2012, compared to the same time frame last year. The 2,000second quarter of 2011 only marked 24,925 home sales while there were 26,037 home sales in the second quarter of 2012. 8,000

+7% YOY +4% YOY

+2% YOY

Looking closer, both April (+4%0YOY) and May (+7% YOY) showed strong year-over-year gains inJanuary home sales -- while March June February April May June July 6,000 2012 showed a smaller year-over-year improvement (+2%). Month Looking ahead, we are likely to see strong third and fourth quarters given low interest rates and declining unemployment rates. 4,000 Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q2

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 30,000 27,733

28,000

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

26,156 26,000

26,037

25,157

24,000

23,370

22,849

23,022

+11% YOY

22,000 20,774 20,000

19,095

18,513 18,000

18,057 16,930

16,541 16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 Quarter

When viewed on a quarterly basis, the second quarter of 2012 shows further growth in Virginia’s residential real estate market with an 11.4% increase in home sales as compared to the second quarter of 2011. This is a significant increase in the pace of home sales in Virginia, and is likely a result of continued low interest rates, and low unemployment rates in the Commonwealth. We are likely to see fewer home sales in the third quarter of 2012 as compared to the second quarter, as typically the July through September home sales market is not quite as robust as April through June.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q2

Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 100,000

95,000

93,279

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

91,051 90,000

85,000

88,127

90,703

87,843

Tax

it Cred

t Boos

80,000

87,897 86,211

Po

st

83,561

Tax -

83,950 81,835

Cre

dit

75,000

82,417

79,587

De

cli

ne

ry!

cove

f Re gns o

Si

83,544

70,000

65,000

60,000

55,000

50,000 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 Quarter

When examining long term trends, it seems quite certain that we are finally seeing lasting improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. We have now seen steady increases in the annualized pace of home sales in Virginia for five quarters in a row. Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data, thus the 2012-Q2 figure (86,211 sales) includes home sales from 2011-Q3 through 2012-Q2. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market. While this graph can take quite a long time to reveal market trends, when it finally does (now) there can be much greater certainty as to the conclusions.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q2

Regional Changes in Sales 2011-Q2 vs. 2012-Q2 Units

Northern Virginia +8.3% Central Valley -11.1%

Central Virginia +9.6% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +1.8% Southwest Virginia -7.9%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +1.5%

Southside Virginia -19.5%

Region

2011-Q2

2012-Q2

Change

Central Valley

1,591

1,415

-11.1%

Central Virginia

3,700

4,057

+9.6%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

5,755

5,843

+1.5%

Northern Virginia

11,215

12,145

+8.3%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

1,844

1,878

+1.8%

Southside Virginia

486

391

-19.5%

Southwest Virginia

330

304

-7.9%

The housing recovery varies regionally in Virginia, or at least when viewed through the lense of year-over-year changes in the pace of home sales. The two most highly populated areas of the Commonwealth (Northern Virginia and Central Virginia) both experienced significant increases in the pace of home sales over the past year (+8.3%, +9.6%). Other regions experienced anywhere from a 7.9% to 19.5% decline in the pace of home sales.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q2

Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$249,900 $215,000

$220,000

$235,000

$232,500

$232,000

$249,900

$239,900

$225,000

$225,000

$235,000

+7.5%

$210,000

Median Sales Price

$250,000

$234,000

$300,000

$200,000

+6.8% $150,000

$100,000 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 Quarter

The median sales price in Virginia increased 7.5% over the past year to $249,900 for all residential sales. This is well higher than the second quarter median sales price for the past several years -- and is in a tie for the highest price in the past three years. Looking at the longer term trends, the median sales price in Virginia has only increased by 6.8% over the past three years, as measured by first quarter sales data.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q2

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2011-Q2 vs. 2012-Q2

Northern Virginia +6.6% Central Valley -0.9%

Central Virginia +2.8% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +4.1% Southwest Virginia +9.0%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +3.5%

Southside Virginia +18.5%

Region

2011-Q2

2012-Q2

Change

Central Valley

$212,000

$210,000

-0.9%

Central Virginia

$179,900

$185,000

+2.8%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

$198,000

$205,000

+3.5%

Northern Virginia

$332,136

$354,000

+6.6%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

$148,900

$155,000

+4.1%

Southside Virginia

$74,450

$88,250

+18.5%

Southwest Virginia

$105,500

$115,000

+9.0%

After several years of declining sales prices in all regions of Virginia, we are starting to see increases in median sales prices in almost all regions of Virginia. When comparing the second quarter of 2012 to the second quarter of 2011, only one region (Central Valley) experienced a decline in median sales price -- and it was a decline of less than one percent. Northern Virginia, Southwest Virginia and Southside Virginia led the pack in increases in median sales prices (+6.6%, +9.0%, +18.5%).

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q2

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 9,000 8,198 8,000

8,033

7,625 7,192

Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales

7,182 7,000

6,789 6,411

6,402

6,000 5,433

5,298 4,855

5,000 4,553

4,496

4,000

3,000

2,000 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 Quarter

This graph illustrates the number of millions of dollars of real estate sold during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the second quarter of 2012 ($8.0B) marks an 11.7% increase from the second quarter of 2011 ($7.2B). This is only the second quarterly increase seen in recent years in sales volume in Virginia -- the result of both increased sales pace and stabilizing prices.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q2

Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 120

104 100

96 91 87

Average Days On Market

80

104 100

84

86 79

94

93 84

82

60

40

20

0 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 Quarter

The average time to market and sell a house has decreased 11% over the past year to an average of 84 days, which marks a 12% decline over the past three years. The federal home buyer tax credit certainly spurred on buyer activity during 2009 and 2010, lowering the average days on market, but that did not last too much longer than the period during which those tax credits were available.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q2

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2011-Q2

$2M +

30 +33% 40

$1.5M - $2M

60 +13% 68 278 +8% 299

$1M - $1.5M

665 +4% 691

$750K - $1M

Price Range

2012-Q2

2,387

$500K - $750K

2,840

+19%

1,974 +17% 2,309

$400K - $500K

3,500

$300K - $400K

3,936

+12% 5,456

$200K - $300K

5,886

+8% 7,053 -1% 6,956

$100K - $200K 3,522

0 - $100K

3,012 0

500

-14%

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

Home sales increased in nearly every price range during the second quarter of 2012 in Virginia, as compared to the second quarter of 2011. Of note, the most affordable price range (under $100K) was the only price range to experience a significant decline in sales pace. This may be the result of overall increases in median sales prices which would be moving some under $100K properties up into the $100K - $200K price range.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q2

Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2012-Q1 vs. 2012-Q2

Northern Virginia -16% Central Valley -7%

Central Virginia -6% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +47% Southwest Virginia +52%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -5%

Southside Virginia +4%

Region

2012-Q1

2012-Q2

Change

Central Valley

99

92

-7%

Central Virginia

435

408

-6%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

582

551

-5%

Northern Virginia

1,159

974

-16%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

107

157

+47%

Southside Virginia

53

55

+4%

Southwest Virginia

21

32

+52%

All of Virginia

2,456

2,269

-8%

Foreclosure rates decreased in many regions of Virginia in the second quarter of 2012 to mark an overall 8% decline in Virginia foreclosures as compared to the first quarter of 2012. The largest proportional declines were seen in Northern Virginia (-16%), though Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg and Southwest Virginia experienced significant increases in foreclosures (+47%, +52%).

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q2

Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000

16,000 14,000 12,000

444,000 391,000

400,000

10,000 8,000

9,000

8,390

6,000

500,000

300,000 200,000

4,000 100,000

2,000 0

0 May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. May 2012 home sales increased 13% in the United States (existing home sales only) as compared to May 2011, while Virginia experienced a 7% increase.

Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

$300,000 $249,000 $250,000 $225,000

$240,000 $220,000 $200,000

$200,000

$180,000 $182,600

$150,000 $169,300

$160,000 $140,000

$100,000

$120,000

$50,000

$100,000 May-11 Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12

Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12

Median home prices have increased in both Virginia and the United States over the past year (May 2011 to May 2012), though home values increased a bit more in Virginia (+11% during the past year) than in the entire United States (+8%).

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q2

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%

7.2%

6.9%

7.0%

7.4%

7.0% 6.5%

6.4%

6.3%

6.5% 6.0%

6.1% 5.6%

5.6%

2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2

2012-Q2 unemployment rate based on preliminary May 2012 data.

Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, May 2012 (U.S. rate = 8.2 percent)

14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

3.9% or below

Virginia’s unemployment rate is at its lowest levels (5.6%) in more than three years, and Virginia currently has the 9th lowest unemployment rate in the country. It is encouraging news that an increasing number of Virginians are employed, as this bodes well for further stability and recovery in Virginia’s housing market.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q2

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 6.0% 5.5%

5.42% 5.06%

5.0%

4.93%

4.97% 4.74%

4.71%

4.5%

4.86% 4.51%

4.35%

4.01%

4.0%

3.95%

3.99% 3.66%

3.5% 3.0%

2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0%

4.9% 4.5%

4.4%

4.3%

4.2%

4.1% 3.8%

3.5%

4.1% 3.7% 3.3%

3.0%

3.0%

3.2% 2.9%

2.5% 2.0% 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2

Long-term mortgage interest rates have steadily decreased over the past year with 30-year fixed rates hovering just above 3.5%, and 15-year fixed rates now below 3%. These historically low mortgage interest rates certainly play an important part in encouraging buyer activity in Virginia’s housing market.

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2012-Q2

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley: Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Southside Virginia:

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Southwest Virginia:

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

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Q2_2012_Report  

Va home sales report