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2011 2013

Quarter QUARTER Quarter

Fsecond IRST second

VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt

Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

速 速 Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia. estate professionals property owners in Virginia.


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q1

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2010

2011

2012

2013

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

January

February

March

Jan

Feb

Mar

April

Apr

May

June July Month

May

Jun

Jul

August

Aug

September October November December

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2010

4,562

4,892

7,087

8,337

8,903

10,493

7,137

7,210

6,427

6,035

6,010

6,468

2011

4,728

5,116

7,145

7,311

8,391

9,223

7,970

8,136

6,916

6,263

6,070

6,758

2012 2013

5,067 5,506

5,765 5,880

7,213 7,255

7,698

9,063

9,739

8,662

9,024

7,202

7,246

7,386

6,829

The pace of residential home sales this quarter is slightly higher than the first quarter of 2012. There were 18,641 home sales in Virginia in the first quarter of 2013, or 596 more than in the first quarter of 2012. January 2013 (+9% YOY) showed strong year-over-year gains in home sales while February 2013 (+2% YOY) and March 2013 (+1% YOY) had marginal year-over-year improvements.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q1

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

30,000 27,733

28,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

26,500 26,000

24,902

24,000

24,888 22,995

22,000

21,461

20,798 20,000

18,000 16,541

+3%

19,091

18,558

18,045

YOY

18,641

17,105

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 Quarter

The Quarterly Residential Sales graph highlights the marginal growth in the first quarter of 2013 compared to the first quarter of 2012. Nonetheless, annualized growth shown on the next page is evidence of continued market recovery. Even though the first quarter of 2013 was only slightly improved over 2012, we are likely to see a seasonal boost in home sales in the second (spring) quarter of 2013 as we move through April and May to reach the peak of the season in June.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q1

Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

100,000

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

95,000

93,279 90,894

90,703 90,000

85,000

80,000

75,000

88,524

87,921

Pos t

91,490

83,630

Tax -

84,194

83,560 81,363

Cre di

tD

ecl

ine

84,093

85,033

86,631

Y! COVER E R T E MARK essive 7 Succ Growth! rs of Quarte

70,000

65,000

60,000

55,000

50,000

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 Quarter

Quarterly trends show continued improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. We have now seen steady increases in the annualized pace of home sales in Virginia for seven quarters in a row. Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown, thus the 2013-Q1 figure (91,490 sales) includes home sales from 2012-Q2 through 2013-Q1. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market. This graph is more robust than graphs showing monthly and quarterly trends, therefore we can be fairly confident that the market recovery will continue until we begin to experience a consistent plateau over 4 quarters of annualized data.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q1

Regional Changes in Sales 2012-Q1 vs. 2013-Q1 Units

Northern Virginia +5.1% Central Valley -6.2%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +1.6% Southwest Virginia 8.2%

Central Virginia +2.5%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +3.3%

Southside Virginia -3.0%

Region

2012-Q1

2013-Q1

Change

Central Valley

1,075

1,008

-6.2%

Central Virginia

2,791

2,860

2.5%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

4,357

4,500

3.3%

Northern Virginia

7,871

8,271

5.1%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

1,316

1,337

1.6%

Southside Virginia

394

382

-3.0%

Southwest Virginia

243

263

8.2%

All of Virginia

18,047

18,621

3.2%

The housing recovery varies regionally in Virginia, or at least when viewed through the lens of yearover-year changes in the pace of home sales. Nearly the entire state is experiencing growth in the pace of home sales aside from Central Valley (-6.2%) and Southside Virginia (-3.0%). Southwest Virginia (+8.2%) experienced the highest rate of increase in home sales, but the volume of sales is small and the number of sales only increased by +20. Most other regions continue to experience steady increases.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 5


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q1

Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$232,600

$241,000

$248,000

$249,500 $215,000

$220,000

$235,000

$232,694

$249,900

$239,900

$232,500

$210,000

Median Sales Price

$250,000

$225,000

$300,000

+8.2

$200,000

+3.4%

$150,000

$100,000

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 Quarter

The median sales price in Virginia increased 8.2% over the past year to $232,600 for all residential sales, the fourth straight quarter of year-over-year gains in median prices. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 3.4% over the past three years, as measured by first quarter sales data.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 6


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q1

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2012-Q1 vs. 2013-Q1

Northern Virginia +11.5% Central Valley -3.0%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +5.7% Southwest Virginia +23.0%

Central Virginia +7.4%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +5.4%

Southside Virginia -7.6%

Region

2012-Q1

2013-Q1

Change

Central Valley

$192,000

$186,250

-3.0%

Central Virginia

$163,000

$175,000

7.4%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

$185,000

$195,000

5.4%

Northern Virginia

$304,900

$340,000

11.5%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

$138,000

$145,900

5.7%

Southside Virginia

$78,000

$72,050

-7.6%

Southwest Virginia

$97,500

$119,900

23.0%

All of Virginia

$215,000

232,600

8.2%

After several years of declining sales prices in all regions of Virginia, many regions are now experiencing increases in median sales prices sustained over several quarters (YOY). Increases for 2013-Q1 (YOY) ranged from 5.4% in Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay to 23.0% in Southwest Virginia. The latter is based on a small number of sales and greater volatility can be expected. Median prices in Northern Virginia increased 11.5% and reflected substantially more sales. When comparing the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013, Southside Virginia and Central Valley experienced decreases in the first quarter, year-over-year.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 7


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q1

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

9,000 8,198

8,197

8,000

7,681

Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales

7,306 7,000

6,787 6,437

6,410 6,000 5,446

5,409

5,304 4,861

5,000 4,553

4,503

4,000

3,000

2,000

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 Quarter

This graph illustrates dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the first quarter of 2013 ($5.4B) was a strong 11.3% increase from the first quarter of 2012 ($4.8B).

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 8


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q1

Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

120

104 100 91 86

Average Days On Market

80

79

100 94

82

103

93 85

84

88

91

60

40

20

0

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 Quarter

Comparing quarters year-over-year, 2012 demonstrated stronger markets through shorter average time from listing to closing. Time on market decreased 17% the first quarter of 2013 over the past year to an average of 91 days.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 9


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q1

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2012-Q1 $2M +

29 35

+21%

$1.5M - $2M

42 44

+5%

145 185

$1M - $1.5M

Price Range

+28%

337 440

$750K - $1M

+31% 1,336 1,633

$500K - $750K

1,285 1,583

$400K - $500K

2013-Q1

+22% +23% 2,481 +9% 2,696

$300K - $400K

3,946 4,160

$200K - $300K

+5% 5,466 5,222

$100K - $200K

-4%

2,989 -12% 2,643

0 - $100K 0

500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

Home sales increased in most price ranges during the first quarter of 2013 in Virginia, as compared to the first quarter of 2012, with very strong increases in sales between $400,000 and $1.5 million. The lowest price category (under $100K) was the only one to experience a significant decline in sales volume, possibly due to clearing of the inventory of distressed sales. The data suggests shortfalls in the inventory for sale in ranges with sharp increases in prices, but these increases could be temporary. Negative price signals result in more of the existing inventory being held off the market, resulting in scarcity in the for-sale inventory. That is, owners who have the discretion to time their moves (e.g. move-up or downsize in the same region, and other non-job related moves, plus those who might be in a temporary leasing arrangement until prices recover) are not putting their homes up for sale. Additionally, very few new units are being built. As demand improves, prices signal a better market which should attract more of the existing inventory onto the market and more starts of new units.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 10


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q1

Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2012-Q4 vs. 2013-Q1

Northern Virginia -9% Central Valley -15%

Central Virginia -15%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -29% Southwest Virginia -31%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -3%

Southside Virginia +9%

Region

2012-Q4

2013-Q1

Change

Central Valley

73

62

-15%

Central Virginia

357

302

-15%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

512

498

-3%

Northern Virginia

717

650

-9%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

94

67

-29%

Southside Virginia

34

37

9%

Southwest Virginia

35

24

-31%

All of Virginia

1,822

1,640

-10%

Foreclosures in the Commonwealth of Virginia dropped 10% between 2012-Q4 and 2013-Q1. This improvement was experienced across the state with the exception of Southside Virginia (where prices also continued to decline). Although foreclosures decreased in the Hampton Roads/ Chesapeake Bay ` region, the grey coloring represents that the year-over-year change in foreclosures was marginal.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 11


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q1

Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

16,000

600,000

14,000

500,000

12,000 10,000 8,000

287,000

305,000

5,765

5,880

300,000

6,000 4,000

200,000 100,000

2,000 0

400,000

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

0

The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. Both United States (existing home sales only) and Virginia sales increased into the first quarter and experienced a modest year over year increase.

Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

$300,000 $250,000

$240,000 $230,000

$210,000

$200,000

$200,000

$180,000

$150,000 $100,000 $50,000

$220,000

$173,600 $155,600

$160,000 $140,000 $120,000

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12 Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

$100,000

Median home prices increased slightly faster in Virginia (+12%) than the United States as a whole (+10%) over the past year (February 2012 to February 2013).

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 12


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q1

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics

8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%

7.4%

2010-Q1

7.1%

2010-Q2

6.9%

2010-Q3

6.7%

6.5%

6.4%

2010-Q4

2011-Q1

2011-Q2

6.6%

2011-Q3

6.2%

2011-Q4

5.9%

2012-Q1

6.0%

2012-Q2

5.9%

2012-Q3

5.6%

2012-Q4

5.3%

2013-Q1

2013-Q1 unemployment rate based on preliminary March 2013 data.

Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, February 2013 (U.S. rate = 7.7 percent)

14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

3.9% or below

Virginia’s unemployment rate continued to decrease in the fourth quarter of 2012. Further, Virginia remained at the third lowest level in the United States at the middle of the first quarter of 2013. It is encouraging news that an increasing number of Virginians are employed and bodes well for the housing market. In the next quarterly report, we will see how Virginia fared in the midst of the government sequester and slow job growth that we are currently experiencing nationally.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 13


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q1

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

5.5% 5.0%

5.00%

4.91%

4.5%

4.85% 4.45%

4.66%

4.41%

4.31% 4.01%

4.0%

3.92%

3.80% 3.54%

3.5% 3.0%

3.36%

3.50%

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

4.5% 4.0% 3.5%

4.4%

4.3%

4.1% 3.9%

3.8%

3.9% 3.5%

3.0%

3.2%

3.0% 2.8%

2.5% 2.0%

3.3%

2.7%

2.7%

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1

Mortgage interest rates held steady over the past two quarters. These historically low mortgage interest rates, along with expanding employment, certainly contribute to the increased buyer activity in Virginia’s housing markets.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 14


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q1

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 28,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley: Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Southside Virginia:

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Southwest Virginia:

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 15


2013_Q1_Report  

Virginia home sales report Q1 2013

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