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2011 2013

Quarter QUARTER Quarter

second FOURTH second

VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt

Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

速 速 Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia. estate professionals property owners in Virginia.


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q4

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2010

2011

2012

2013

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0 January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November December

Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2010

4,562

4,892

7,087

8,337

8,903

10,493

7,137

7,210

6,427

6,035

6,010

6,468

2011

4,728

5,116

7,145

7,311

8,391

9,223

7,970

8,136

6,916

6,263

6,070

6,758

2012 2013

5,068 5,528

5,775 5,911

7,213 7,456

7,698 8,660

9,064 10,454

9,740 10,763

8,664 10,344

9,026 10,104

7,213 8,138

7,261 7,887

7,400 6,882

6,838 7,356

The pace of residential home sales in the fourth quarter was 2.86% higher than the fourth quarter of 2012. This increase is modest because sales were particularly weak in November. December sales were 7.58% higher than December 2012, so Virginia year-over-year sales this year were higher in every month except November. Year-over-year sales indicate that the housing market continues to recover. The seasonal decline will likely continue throughout next quarter, but then we can expect the market to pick up its pace.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q4

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

35,000

29,877

30,000

28,586 26,502 24,911

24,906

25,000

23,001 20,798 20,000

+2.86%

21,509 19,099

18,558

18,056

22,125

YOY

18,895

17,105

15,000

10,000

2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 Quarter

Virginia experienced its typical seasonal decline in the fourth quarter of 2013. Nonetheless, year-overyear sales were up 2.86%. Consistently positive year-over-year gains show Virginia’s strong market recovery.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q4

Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

110,000

98,867

100,000

99,483

95,192 90,978 90,000

87,921 83,630

84,194

83,570

84,111

85,062

81,367 80,000

91,817

88,568

86,658

RY!

VE ECO ET R

K MAR

70,000

60,000

50,000

2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 Quarter

Quarterly trends show continued improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. This graph shows Virginia’s consistent market recovery since the beginning of 2011. We can expect slow growth in this metric throughout the first quarter of 2014, but hope to see strong sales starting in the second quarter. Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown. For example, the 2013-Q4 figure (99,483 sales) includes home sales from January 2013 through December 2013. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market. This graph is more robust than graphs showing monthly and quarterly trends, therefore we can be fairly confident that the market recovery will continue until we begin to experience a consistent plateau over four quarters of annualized data.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q4

Regional Changes in Sales 2012-Q4 vs. 2013-Q4 Units

Northern Virginia -0.3% Central Valley -5.7%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +14.9% Southwest Virginia +20.6%

Central Virginia +3.7%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +8.2%

Southside Virginia -17%

Region

2012-Q4

2013-Q4

Change

Central Valley

1,210

1,141

-5.7%

Central Virginia

3,437

3,564

3.7%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

4,855

5,252

8.2%

Northern Virginia

9,750

9,720

-0.3%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

1,564

1,797

14.9%

Southside Virginia

406

337

-17.0%

Southwest Virginia

257

310

20.6%

All of Virginia

21,479

22,121

3.0%

Market performance was not consistent throughout the state in the final quarter of 2013. Three regions experienced year-over-year decreases in sales from 2012-Q4 to 2013-Q4: Northern Virginia (-0.3%), the Central Valley (-5.7%), and Southside (-17.0%). Central Virginia (+3.7%), Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay (+8.2%), Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg (+14.9%), and Southwest Virginia (+20.6%) had stronger markets in 2013-Q4 compared to 2012-Q4. Changes in regions with decreasing sales were moderate compared to the gains in other regions, meaning year-over-year sales increased in Virginia as a whole.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q4

Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$249,000

$254,000

$269,000 $232,600

$241,000

$248,000

$249,500 $215,000

$220,000

$235,000

$232,694 $210,000

Median Sales Price

$250,000

$232,500

$249,900

$300,000

+3.3%

$200,000

+7.1% $150,000

$100,000 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 Quarter

The median sales price in Virginia increased 3.3% over the past year to $249,000 for all residential sales. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 7.1% over 2010Q4. The median price decreased from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, despite an increase in median sales price in December. Previous years indicate that prices will drop during January, but pick up again as we near the second quarter.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 6


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q4

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2012-Q4 vs. 2013-Q4

Northern Virginia +5.9% Central Valley +8.5%

Central Virginia +7.1%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 0.0% Southwest Virginia 0.0%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -1.2%

Southside Virginia 17.6%

Region

2012-Q4

2013-Q4

Change

Central Valley

$200,000

$217,000

8.5%

Central Virginia

$182,000

$195,000

7.1%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

$201,500

$199,000

-1.2%

Northern Virginia

$340,000

$360,000

5.9%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

$151,025

$151,000

0.0%

Southside Virginia

$70,750

$83,200

17.6%

Southwest Virginia

$110,000

$110,000

0.0%

All of Virginia

$240,535

249,000

3.5%

Changes in median sales price also varied throughout the state. Southwest Virginia, the Roanoke/ Lynchburg/Blacksburg region and the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay region experienced little change. Northern Virginia, the Central Valley, Central Virginia and Southside all expericenced increasing prices. The combination of rising prices and fewer sales in Southside, Northern Virginia and the Central Valley could indicate that inventory is limited in these regions.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 7


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q4

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($M) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

11,000

9,880

10,000

9,238

Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales

9,000

8,197 8,000

7,684 7,307 6,789

7,000

6,446

6,410 6,000

5,000

5,446

5.7% YOY

6,813

5,493

5,275 4,866 4,503

4,000

3,000

2,000

2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 Quarter

This graph illustrates the dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the fourth quarter of 2013 ($6.8B) increased 5.7% from the fourth quarter of 2012 ($6.4B). Consistent year-over-year increases in volume are also evidence of Virginia’s strong and continuing market recovery.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q4

Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

120

104 100 91

100 94

103

93

82

85

84

88

91 80

Average Days On Market

80 71

71

-9%YOY

60

40

20

0

2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 Quarter

Days on the market remain relatively low. Time on the market decreased 9% from the fourth quarter of 2012 to an average of 80 days in the fourth quarter of 2013.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 9


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q4

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2012-Q4 $2M +

35 40

14%

$1.5M - $2M

61 57

-7% 236 274

$1M - $1.5M

Price Range

16% 538 617

$750K - $1M

15% 2,068 2,228

$500K - $750K

8%

1,836 2,035

$400K - $500K

2013-Q4

11% 3,253 3,313

$300K - $400K

2% 4,885 5,024

$200K - $300K

3% 5,759 5,792

$100K - $200K 2,813 2,745

0 - $100K 0

500

1%

-2%

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

Year-over-year home sales increased in all price ranges this quarter except for the 0-$100K and the 1.5M-$2M ranges. With the exception of a decrease in sales in the $1.5M -$2M price range, sales of higher priced homes increased more substantially than homes that sold for less than $400,000. Note that fluctuation in the $1.5M+ categories is to be expected because there are so few sales in these ranges and therefore, small changes make a larger impact on the percentage change. There have been fewer sales in the 0-$100K price range each quarter of 2013 compared to 2012, possibly because unemployment and stricter mortgage loan requirements disproportionately affect households with more moderate incomes. However, the margin is shrinking. In the beginning of 2013 year-over-year sales in the 0-$100K range were down 12%. We will likely see the number of sales in this range improve as unemployment continues to fall.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 10


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q4

Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2013-Q3 vs. 2013-Q4

Northern Virginia -72% Central Valley -88%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -86% Southwest Virginia -56%

Central Virginia -84%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -82%

Southside Virginia -90%

Region

2013-Q3

2013-Q4

Change

Central Valley

73

9

-88%

Central Virginia

342

55

-84%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

758

140

-82%

Northern Virginia

715

202

-72%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

219

30

-86%

Southside Virginia

21

2

-90%

Southwest Virginia

16

7

-56%

All of Virginia

2,144

445

-79%

Many areas of Virginia experienced a large spike in foreclosures in the third quarter of 2013. In the fourth quarter each region of the state experienced more typical amounts of foreclosures, resulting in the large drop in foreclosures in every region from 2013-Q3 to 2013-Q4.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 11


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q4

Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000

16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000

500,000 345,000

332,000

300,000

8,000 6,000

7,400

6,882

4,000

200,000 100,000

2,000 0

400,000

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13 (p)

0

The pace of Virginia home sales has been similar to the pace of sales in the United States as a whole throughout the year. Both the United States as a whole and Virginia continued to experience seasonal decline in October and November.

Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) $300,000

$300,000 $250,000

$248,000

$245,000

$200,000

$200,000 $196,200

$150,000 $179,400

$150,000 $100,000

$100,000 $50,000

$250,000

Nov-12 Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13 Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13 (p)

$50,000

The median sales price in Virginia remains higher than the national average, but closely mirrored the United States price decline in October and November.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 12


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q4

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics

7% 7%

6.7%

6.4%

6.5%

6.6% 6.2%

6%

5.9%

6.0%

5.9%

6%

5.6%

5.3%

5%

5.5%

5.8% 5.4%

5% 4%

2010-Q4

2011-Q1

2011-Q2

2011-Q3

2011-Q4

2012-Q1

2012-Q2

2012-Q3

2012-Q4

2013-Q1

2013-Q2

2013-Q3

2013-Q4

2013-Q3 unemployment rate based on preliminary August 2013 data.

Unemployment Rates By State

seasonally adjusted, November 2013 (U.S. rate = 7.0 percent)

14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

3.9% or below

Virginia’s unemployment rate decreased in the fourth quarter of 2013 to 5.4% in November. Virginia remained at the second lowest level of unemployment in the United States in November. Decreasing unemployment may be one reason for the uptick in sales in December.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 13


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q4

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

5.0%

4.85%

4.8%

4.66%

4.6% 4.4%

4.41%

4.44%

4.31%

4.2%

4.01%

4.0% 3.8%

3.92%

3.80%

3.6%

3.36%

3.2% 3.0%

3.69%

3.54%

3.4%

4.30%

3.50%

2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

4.5% 4.1%

4.0% 3.8% 3.5% 3.0%

3.9% 3.5%

3.3%

3.5% 3.2%

3.0% 2.8%

2.5% 2.0%

2.7%

2.7%

3.4%

2.9%

2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4

Mortgage interest rates decreased in the fourth quarter of 2013. This decrease in mortgage interest rates may be another factor contributing to increased sales in December.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 14


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q4

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 28,000 REALTORS® active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley: Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Southside Virginia:

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Southwest Virginia:

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 15


Q4 2013 var report  

Virginia Home Sales Report Q4 2013

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