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2011 2013

Quarter QUARTER Quarter

second SECOND second

VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt

Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

速 速 Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia. estate professionals property owners in Virginia.


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q2

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2010

2011

2012

2013

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

January

February

March

Jan

Feb

Mar

April

Apr

May

June July Month

May

Jun

Jul

August

Aug

September October November December

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2010

4,562

4,892

7,087

8,337

8,903

10,493

7,137

7,210

6,427

6,035

6,010

6,468

2011

4,728

5,116

7,145

7,311

8,391

9,223

7,970

8,136

6,916

6,263

6,070

6,758

2012 2013

5,068 5,560

5,775 5,911

7,213 7,427

7,698 8,602

9,064 10,383

9,740 10,514

8,664

9,026

7,212

7,258

7,403

6,910

The pace of residential home sales this quarter is 11% higher than the second quarter of 2012. This significant year-over-year increase reflects relatively high sales in May 2013. There were 29,499 home sales in Virginia in the second quarter of 2013, 2,997 more sales than in the second quarter of 2012. April 2013 (+11.7% YOY) had a moderate year-over-year improvement, while May 2013 (+14.6% YOY) showed extremely strong year-over-year gains in home sales. Sales leveled off in June 2013, so July numbers may indicate whether we will continue to see signs of further recovery this year.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 2


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q2

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

35,000

30,000

29,499

+11%

27,733

YOY

26,502 24,906

25,000

24,902 23,001 21,571

20,798 20,000

19,099

18,558 16,541

18,056

18,898

17,105

15,000

10,000

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 Quarter

In the second quarter we experienced a sharp increase in home sales and a significant year-over-year increase. So far this year, sales have surpassed 2010 sales, indicating that the market is performing better on its own than it did with significant tax incentives in 2010.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 3


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q2

Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

100,000

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

95,000

94,870

93,279 91,031

90,703 90,000

85,000

80,000

75,000

88,559

87,921

Pos t

91,873

84,194

83,630

Tax -

83,570

84,111

85,062

86,658

RY!

81,367

Cre di

tD

ecl

ine

KE MAR

OVE T REC

70,000

65,000

60,000

55,000

50,000

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 Quarter

Quarterly trends show continued improvement in the pace of home sales in Virginia. This graph highlights that our housing market is performing better than it did in the second quarter of 2010 when the market received a boost from tax incentives. Surpassing market performance in 2010 without the tax credits is an important milestone in Virginia’s market recovery. Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown, thus the 2013-Q2 figure (94,870 sales) includes home sales from 2012-Q3 through 2013-Q2. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market. This graph is more robust than graphs showing monthly and quarterly trends, therefore we can be fairly confident that the market recovery will continue until we begin to experience a consistent plateau over 4 quarters of annualized data.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 4


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q2

Regional Changes in Sales 2012-Q2 vs. 2013-Q2 Units

Northern Virginia +12.4% Central Valley +11.4%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +16.2% Southwest Virginia +15.6%

Central Virginia +9.0%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +9.0%

Southside Virginia +7.8%

Region

2012-Q2

2013-Q2

Change

Central Valley

1,437

1,601

11.4%

Central Virginia

4,210

4,589

9.0%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

5,835

6,363

9.0%

Northern Virginia

12,412

13,945

12.4%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

1,902

2,210

16.2%

Southside Virginia

399

430

7.8%

Southwest Virginia

307

355

15.6%

All of Virginia

26,502

29,493

11.3%

The significant increase in home sales this quarter was experienced throughout the state. Every region saw significant increases in sales. Notably, the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg area, the Central Valley and Southside experienced very high sales after a slower first quarter. In addition, the year-over-year increases in these areas are among the highest in the state.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 5


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q2

Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$269,000

$300,000

$232,600

$241,000

$248,000

$249,500 $215,000

$220,000

$235,000

$232,694

$249,900

$239,900

$232,500

$210,000

Median Sales Price

$250,000

$225,000

+7.8%

$200,000

+12.1%

$150,000

$100,000

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 Quarter

The median sales price in Virginia increased 7.8% over the past year to $269,000 for all residential sales. This increase represents a strong, steady climb and does not reflect the steep and possibly volatile price increases that have been reported in some parts of the nation. Looking at the longer term trend, the median sales price in Virginia has increased by 12.1% over the past three years, as measured by second quarter sales data.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 6


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q2

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2012-Q2 vs. 2013-Q2

Northern Virginia +8.5% Central Valley +4.8%

Central Virginia +7.8%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +5.1% Southwest Virginia -0.9%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +3.4%

Southside Virginia -6.8%

Region

2012-Q2

2013-Q2

Change

Central Valley

$210,000

$220,000

4.8%

Central Virginia

$185,500

$200,000

7.8%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

$204,900

$211,900

3.4%

Northern Virginia

$355,000

$385,000

8.5%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

$156,987

$165,000

5.1%

Southside Virginia

$87,500

$81,524

-6.8%

Southwest Virginia

$115,000

$114,000

-0.9%

All of Virginia

$249,500

269,000

7.8%

Nearly every region in Virginia is now experiencing increases in median sales prices. Large numbers of sales mean these numbers reflect the volume of sales in each region. The regions colored in green are experiencing steady increases in price, evidence of a healthy market recovery. Prices in Southwest Virginia may be stabilizing. Southside’s continued decline in prices, despite the market’s continued recovery is evidence of the region’s overall economic context.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 7


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q2

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($M) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

11,000

10,000

9,736

18% YOY Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales

9,000

8,198

8,197

8,000

7,684 7,307 6,789

7,000

6,465

6,410 6,000

5,000

5,446 4,553

5,482

5,275 4,866 4,503

4,000

3,000

2,000

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 Quarter

This graph illustrates the dollar value of real estate sold (in millions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the second quarter of 2013 ($9.7B) was a strong 18% increase from the second quarter of 2010 ($8.2B). This comparison is important because the 2013 housing market has advanced beyond the 2010 second quarter volume, without the help of the tax credits that boosted the spring 2010 numbers.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 8


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q2

Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

120

104 100 91 86

Average Days On Market

80

79

100 94

103

93 85

82

84

88

-16%YOY

91

71

60

-10%YOY 40

20

0

2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 Quarter

Time on market decreased 16% from the second quarter of 2012 to an average of 71 days in the second quarter of 2013 (10% fewer days on the market than the second quarter fo 2010). In June, homes stayed on the market an average of 64 days. The market is moving homes extremely fast, faster than it has since August of 2006.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 9


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q2

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2012-Q2 $2M +

42 52

+24%

$1.5M - $2M

69 89

+29% 302 440

$1M - $1.5M

Price Range

+46% 709

$750K - $1M

2013-Q2

990

+40% 2,908

$500K - $750K

+22%

3,555 2,376

$400K - $500K

2,987

+26% 4,007

$300K - $400K

4,657

+16% 5,987

$200K - $300K

6,622

+11% 7,058 +1% 7,127

$100K - $200K 3,048 -2% 2,980

0 - $100K 0

500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

Home sales increased in all price ranges, except the $0-$100K range during the second quarter of 2013, as compared to the second quarter of 2012. The decline in the $0-$100K range is likely the result of declining inventory in this range which inflates generally rising home prices. It is very likely that some homes that were previously in the $0-$100K price range have moved up into the $100-$200K range. The ranges from $100K to $400K seem to have stabilized, while the upper end of the market seems to be experiencing a revival. The ranges $750K-$1M and $1M-$1.5M experienced extremely large yearover-year increases in sales, 40% and 46% respectively.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 10


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q2

Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2013-Q1 vs. 2013-Q2

Northern Virginia -8% Central Valley -6%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -3% Southwest Virginia -33%

Central Virginia +25%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -1%

Southside Virginia -27%

Region

2013-Q1

2013-Q2

Change

Central Valley

62

58

-6%

Central Virginia

302

377

25%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

498

494

-1%

Northern Virginia

650

595

-8%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

67

65

-3%

Southside Virginia

37

27

-27%

Southwest Virginia

24

16

-33%

All of Virginia

1,640

1,632

0%

Foreclosures held steady in Virginia this quarter. Most regions experienced fewer foreclosures, but Central Virginia experienced a significant spike in foreclosures. If the number of foreclosures continue to decrease throughout 2013, the added inventory from foreclosures will begin to clear.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 11


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q2

Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 600,000

16,000 14,000 12,000

459,000 399,000

400,000

10,000 8,000 6,000

10,383

9,064

300,000 200,000

4,000

100,000

2,000 0

500,000

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13 (p)

May-13 (p)

0

The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. Both United States (existing home sales only) and Virginia sales continued to increase into the second quarter and experienced a modest year over year increase.

Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales)

$300,000 $250,000

$267,000

$250,000

$300,000 $250,000

$200,000

$208,700

$200,000

$150,000 $180,200

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000

$50,000

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12 Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13 (p)

May-13 (p)

$50,000

Median sales prices in Virginia have remained more stable than in the United States as a whole. Prices in Virginia have increased slightly more this year (22% from January to May) compared to the US as a whole (19% from January to May), but still basically track the US numbers.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 12


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q2

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics

8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%

7.4%

2010-Q1

7.1%

2010-Q2

6.9%

2010-Q3

6.7%

2010-Q4

6.5%

6.4%

2011-Q1

2011-Q2

6.6%

2011-Q3

6.2%

2011-Q4

5.9%

2012-Q1

6.0%

2012-Q2

5.9%

2012-Q3

5.6%

2012-Q4

5.3%

2013-Q1

2013-Q1 unemployment rate based on preliminary March 2013 data.

Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, May 2013 (U.S. rate = 7.6 percent)

14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6 0% tto 77.9% 6.0% 9% 4.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

3.9% or below

Virginia’s unemployment rate continued to decrease into the second quarter of 2013. Virginia remained at the second lowest level of unemployment in the United States in May. Virginia’s unemployment remains low despite some economic stressors over second quarter. Although we are not back to prerecession rates, we are well on our way.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 13


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q2

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

5.5% 5.0%

4.91%

4.5%

4.85% 4.45%

4.66%

4.41%

4.31% 4.01%

4.0%

3.92%

3.80% 3.54%

3.5% 3.0%

3.36%

3.50%

3.69%

2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

4.5% 4.3% 4.0% 3.5%

4.1% 3.9%

3.8%

3.9% 3.5%

3.3%

3.0%

3.0% 2.8%

2.5% 2.0%

3.2%

2.7%

2.7%

2.9%

2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2

Mortgage interest rates increased slightly in the second quarter of 2013. The Federal Reserve Board has indicated that this upward trajectory will continue. Nonetheless, mortgage interest rates remain historically low. Since unemployment remains low and interest rates are beginning to rise, some opportunistic buyers may begin to enter the market.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 14


Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2013-Q2

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 28,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales

Economic Regions

Central Valley: Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Southside Virginia:

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Southwest Virginia:

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Q2 2013 virginia quarterly report