2015-Q4 Virginia Home Sales Report

2011 2015

second second FOURTH Quarter QUARTER Quarter

VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt

Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

速速, 速 Published byby Virginia association reaLtors the advocate forfor Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate Published by Virginia association ofof reaLtors , the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners Virginia. real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia. real estate professionals and property owners inin Virginia.

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media and real estate-related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia Association of REALTORS®.

The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. However, it should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 27 primary local REALTOR® associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®. Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.

Economic Regions

Central Valley: Central Virginia:

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay:

Northern Virginia:

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg:

Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City

Southside Virginia:

Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania

Southwest Virginia:

Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

Fourth Quarter Market Summary The 2015 Virginia residential real estate market outperformed every year from 2007 to 2014. Virginia’s 2015 residential real estate market far outperformed 2012, 2013 and 2014 in the peak of summer sales. In June, 2015 sales approached the levels Virginia last experienced in 2005 and 2006. In the fourth quarter, 2015 sales were 3.8% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2014. Annualized residential sales also increased in the fourth quarter, indicating that the Virginia residential real estate market is still growing steadily.

Virginia’s median sales price has remained extremely stable and experienced no year-over-year change in the fourth quarter. The median sales price followed typical seasonal trends throughout the year, although moderate changes made seasonality less pronounced. Median sales price increased year-over-year in every region except Northern Virginia.

The state and national unemployment rates remain low while mortgage interest rates increased. Since mortgage interest rates remain historically low, the low unemployment rate should encourage participation in the market.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2012

2013

2014

2015

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2012

5,068

5,775

7,213

7,698

9,064

9,740

8,664

9,026

7,221

7,267

7,400

6,842

2013

5,528

5,922

7,460

8,669

10,483

10,810

10,389

10,154

8,185

7,950

6,949

7,559

2014 2015

5,377 6,781

5,667 6,058

7,109 8,488

8,467 9,122

9,647 10,334

10,643 12,651

10,172 11,789

9,482 10,172

8,354 9,524

8,445 8,819

6,650 6,958

8,297 8,505

There were approximately 8,505 home sales in December 2015, 2.5% more sales than in December 2014. Sales increased 22% from November to December, following a trend very similar to the fourth quarter of 2014. Virginia experienced a higher number sales in 2015 compared to the previous three years overall, and in nearly every month. Virginia far outperformed 2012, 2013 and 2014 in the peak of summer sales. In June, sales approached the levels Virginia last experienced in 2005 and 2006. The pattern of sales in 2015 suggests that Virginia’s residential real estate market is growing.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

35,000

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

32,107 29,962

30,000

25,000

31,485

28,757

28,728

28,008

24,911

24,282

23,392

22,458 21,509 20,000

21,327 18,910

+3.8% YOY

18,153

15,000

10,000 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 Quarter

The number of home sales was 3.8% higher in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. 2015 fourth quarter sales followed a very similar trajectory compared to the fourth quarter of 2014, with a decline in sales from October to November and then a substantial increase in sales in December.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

120,000

108,311

Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

110,000

109,201

104,834 99,109

100,000

100,058 99,301

101,484 98,096

95,292

90,000

88,568

90,978

97,376

98,310

+11.08%

91,832

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 Quarter

Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data ending in the quarter shown. For example, the 2015-Q4 figure (109,201 sales) includes home sales from January 2015 through December 2015. This rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of long-term trends in Virginia’s housing market.

The annualized sales measure increased 11% from 2014-Q4 to 2015-Q4. The fourth quarter of 2015 was the fifth consecutive quarter of increase in this measure, after a steady decline from 2013-Q4 to 2014-Q3. Sustained growth in this measure is a good indication of improved long-term performance and growth in the residential real estate market.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

Regional Changes in Sales 2014-Q4 vs. 2015-Q4 Units

Northern Virginia +3.2% Central Valley -5.6%

Central Virginia +6.4%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +7.8% Southwest Virginia -5.7%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +5.5%

Southside Virginia -6.5%

Region

2014-Q4

2015-Q4

Central Valley

1,493

1,410

Central Virginia

3,879

4,128

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

5,513

5,814

Northern Virginia

9,859

10,176

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

1,857

2,001

Southside Virginia

430

402

Southwest Virginia

366

345

All of Virginia

23,397

24,276

Northern Virginia, Central Virginia, the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg region, and the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay regional all experienced year-over-year increases in sales in the fourth quarter.

Southside Virginia, Southwest Virginia, and the Central Valley each experienced a year-over-year decrease in sales. Overall, the balance of increase and decrease across regional sales accounts for the relatively small year-over-year change in statewide sales volume.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$350,000

$255,000

$265,000

$259,990

$244,467

$255,000

$259,000

$267,000 $235,000

$249,000

$254,000

$233,000

$241,000

$250,000

$248,000

Median Sales Price

$269,900

$300,000

+/-0% $200,000

+5.8% $150,000 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 Quarter

The 2015-Q4 median sales price is exactly the same as the 2014-Q4 median sales price. Both are 5.8% higher than the median price in the fourth quarter of 2012 and 2.4% higher than the fourth quarter of 2013. Virginia prices remain very stable, while following typical seasonal trends.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2014-Q4 vs. 2015-Q4

Northern Virginia -0.8% Central Valley +2.3%

Central Virginia +7.5%

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 0.3% Southwest Virginia +7.7%

Southside Virginia +1.9%

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +6.1%

Region

2014-Q4

2015-Q4

Central Valley

$202,500

$207,250

Central Virginia

$200,000

$214,925

Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay

$206,000

$218,500

Northern Virginia

$372,000

$368,850

Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg

$159,500

$160,000

Southside Virginia

$81,000

$82,500

Southwest Virginia

$111,000

$119,500

All of Virginia

$255,000

$255,000

Southwest Virginia, Central Virginia and the Hampton Roads/Chesapeake Bay region each experienced a relatively large year-over-year increase in sale prices. Northern Virginia, the Central Valley, the Roanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg region and Southside Virginia experienced marginal year-over-year changes in median price.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 9

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($B) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

12

10.75

11

10.18

9.91

10

9.54

Billions of Dollars of Residential Sales

9.30

9.06

9

8

7

6

7.68

7.73

7.40

+4.5% YOY

6.93 6.45

6.21 5.50

5.36

5

4

3

2

2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4 Quarter

This graph illustrates the dollar value of residential real estate sold (in billions) during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the fourth quarter of 2015 ($7.7B) increased 4.5% from the fourth quarter of 2014 ($7.4B). The 4.5% year-over-year increase in sales volume reflects the increase in the number of sales in the fourth quarter because sales prices were only marginially higher in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the fourth quarter of 2014 as indicated by median price.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2014-Q4 $2M +

60 37

-38%

$1.5M - $2M

79 95

20% 301 314

$1M - $1.5M

Price Range

4% 711 669

$750K - $1M

-6% 2,349 2,541

$500K - $750K

2,159 2,260

$400K - $500K

2015-Q4

8%

5% 3,600 3,828

$300K - $400K

6% 5,365

$200K - $300K

5,926

10%

6,081 6,181

$100K - $200K 2,698 2,431

0 - $100K

0

500

2%

-10%

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales

Year-over-year home sales increased in the price ranges between $100,000 and $750,000 and between $1 and $2 million in the fourth quarter. Sales decreased in the $0 to $100,000 range, the $750,000 to $1 million range and the $2 million and over range. Since very few sales occur in the ranges over $750,000, these ranges fluctuate between year-over-year increases and decreases often. Sales in ranges below $750,000 represent the vast majority of transactions in Virginia and serve as a better indicator of market performance. Sales decreased in the lowest price range, possibly because of limited inventory.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

100

88

90

92

91

89

84 81

80

80 71

73

71

73 68

70

Average Days On Market

78

60

68

-3.7% YOY

50

40

30

20

10

0 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 2015-Q3 2015-Q4

Quarter

Average days on the market decreased 3.7% year-over-year. Average days on the market increased from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2015, following Virginia’s regular seasonal trends.

Average days on the market decreased year-over-year throughout 2015.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*)

16,000

600,000

14,000 12,000

500,000

389,000 351,000

10,000 8,000

400,000

300,000

8,445

6,000

6,871

200,000

4,000 100,000

2,000 0

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15 (p)

Jul-15 (p)

Aug-15 (p) Sep-15 (p) Oct-15 (p) Nov-15 (p)

0

The changes in the pace of Virginia home sales were similar to the changes in the pace of sales in the United States as a whole throughout 2015. The United States as a whole experienced a more substantial decrease in sales at the beginning of the year, compared to Virginia. Virginia’s sales decreased somewhat more rapidly through the second half of the year compared to the United States as a whole.

Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales*)

UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*)

$300,000 $250,000 $200,000

$300,000

$246,200

$208,000

$251,500

$220,300

$250,000 $200,000

$150,000

$150,000

$100,000

$100,000

$50,000

$50,000

The Virginia median sales price stayed extremely stable in the second half of 2015, while the United States median sales price decreased more substantially. *Virginia sales reported in the graphs above include all single family, townhouse, and condo sales. U.S. sales are existing single family sales as reported by Realtor.org. Existing sales do not include newly constructed homes sold for the first time.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4%

5.8%

5.6% 5.3%

5.5%

5.4%

5.3%

5.2% 4.9%

4.8%

4.9%

4.7%

4.8% 4.2%

2012-Q4

2013-Q1

2013-Q2

2013-Q3

2013-Q4

2014-Q1

2014-Q2

2014-Q3

2014-Q4

2015-Q1

2015-Q2

2015-Q3

2015-Q4

2015-Q1 unemployment rate based on preliminary February 2015 data.

Unemployment Rates by State, seasonally adjusted, November 2015 (U.S. rate = 5.0 percent)

9.0% and over 8.0% to 8.9% 7.0% to 7.9% 6.0% to 6.9% 5.0% to 5.9% SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics

4.0% to 4.9% 3.9% or below

The United States unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5% throughout the fourth quarter.

The Virginia rate also remained unchanged in October and November at 4.2%. The December unemployment rate for Virginia has not yet been published. Nonetheless, the Virginia unemployment rate is the lowest Virginia has experienced since August of 2008.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

Page 14

Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

4.6% 4.44%

4.4%

4.30%

4.2%

4.36%

4.23%

4.14%

4.0%

3.97%

3.8%

3.4%

3.72%

3.69%

3.6%

3.83%

3.95%

3.90%

3.50% 3.36%

3.2%

3.0% 2012-Q4

2013-Q1

2013-Q2

2013-Q3

2013-Q4

2014-Q1

2014-Q2

2014-Q3

2014-Q4

2015-Q1

2015-Q2

2015-Q3

2015-Q4

3.1%

3.1%

2015-Q3

2015-Q4

Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

3.6% 3.5%

3.4%

3.4%

3.4%

3.2%

3.3%

3.3%

3.2% 3.0%

3.0% 2.8% 2.6%

2.7%

2.7%

3.1%

2.9%

2.4% 2.2%

2.0% 2012-Q4

2013-Q1

2013-Q2

2013-Q3

2013-Q4

2014-Q1

2014-Q2

2014-Q3

2014-Q4

2015-Q1

2015-Q2

30-year mortgage interest rates decreased slightly in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter of 2015, while the average of 15-year rates remain the same from the thrid to fourth quarter of 2015. These averages are somewhat misleading since monthly 30-year and 15-year rates increased throughout the quarter. The 30-year mortgage interest rate reported by Freddie Mac was 3.96% in December and 15-year rate was 3.21%.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS速 Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report

2015-Q4

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 31,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. VAR serves as an advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Note: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Martin Johnson Virginia Association of REALTORS® Martin@VARealtor.com 804-249-5708

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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