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2011

Quarter Quarter

2014

second FEBRUARY second

VIRGINIA VIRGINIA Home HomeSAleS SAleSRepoRt RepoRt

Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

速 速 Published by by Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate for for Published Virginia association of reaLtors , the advocate realreal estate professionals andand property owners in Virginia. estate professionals property owners in Virginia.


Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report

February 2014

Virginia's Monthly Pace of Residential Sales Single Family, Townhomes, Condos

12,000

10,483

10,807 10,387

10,159

10,000 8,669 8,194 Number of Residential Sales

8,000

7,533 6,944

6,842 6,000

7,940

7,460

7,400

5,528

5,922

-7.55%

5,308

5,475

4,000

2,000

0

Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep- 13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p)

(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.

The pace of Virginia home sales increased in February, kicking off the increase in sales that will likely continue throughout the spring. However, sales are down 7.55% from February 2013. This year-overyear decrease seems to signal a slowing recovery, but may instead be related to the winter weather events experienced throughout the state. Even though the market is not picking up as fast as it did last year, housing economists predict that 2014 will be the strongest sales year since the end of the Great Recession. Unemployment rates and mortgage interest rates are working in the market’s favor, so we expect better performance in the Virginia market once we are free of snow and ice.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report

February 2014

Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$200,000

$234,000

$229,900

$250,000

$245,000

$250,000

$250,000

$265,000

$274,900

$268,000

$250,000

$241,350

$230,000

$225,000

$242,350

$248,000

$235,000

$240,000

$248,000

$257,241

$258,000

$250,000

$239,000

$225,000

$210,900

$250,000

$205,000

Median Sales Price

$300,000

$285,000

$350,000

+1.74% +10.95%

$150,000

(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.

The median sales price increased from January to February, another signal that the spring selling season is beginning. The median sales price in February 2014 ($234,000) is 1.74% higher than February 2013 ($230,000), and 10.95% higher than February of 2012 ($210,900). The moderate increase in prices, both year-over-year and from January to February indicates that inventory is keeping up with demand so far this year. We expect prices to remain stable, as long a inventory increases at an adequate rate throughout the spring.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report

February 2014

Virginia Monthly Residential Sales Volume ($M) Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

4,000 3,718 3,482

3,500

3,463 3,290

Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales

3,000 2,712 2,553 2,500

2,454

2,379

2,275

2,269

2,091

2,090 2,000 1,684 1,539

-6%

1,500

1,532

1,583

1,000

500

0

Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p) (p)

(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.

Sales volume was 6% lower this February than last February, reflecting lower sales and a moderate increase in median price year-over-year. The modest increase in volume from January to February is a particularly sluggish start to the year, but we hope to see the market pick up as more favorable weather sets in to encourage buyers and builders alike.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report

February 2014

Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

120 106

103 102

100 91

Average Days On Market

84 80

88 80

81

83

90

87

90

93

97

95

91 86 78

77

73 66

60

-8%

69

78

81

82

72

+2%

40

20

0

(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The numbers may change slightly as more data is reported.

Days on the market rose to an average of 97 days in February, surpassing the average days on the market in February 2013. Virginia experienced a 2% increase in this metric over the past year, but days on the market are still lower than two years ago. Homes are selling at a typical rate for February in Virginia.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORSÂŽ Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report

February 2014

Virginia Unemployment Rate

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Jul-13

Oct-13

5.0%

5.2%

5.4%

5.6%

5.6%

5.8%

5.7%

5.5%

5.3%

5.2%

5.3%

5.6%

5.6%

5.6%

5.7%

5.8%

5.9%

5.9%

6.0%

6.0%

5.9%

5.9%

5.9%

5.9%

9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%

6.0%

Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics

Jan-14 (p)

(p) indicates that this month’s numbers are preliminary. The rate is subject possible change and finalization by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Virginia’s unemployment rate fell to 5.0% in January, a 0.6% decrease from January 2013 and a full 1% decrease from January 2012. Long-term decreases in unemployment will boost buyer confidence as we head into the spring selling season. We could see an especially strong spring market if this unemployment trend continues along with stable interest rates.

Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac

4.6% 4.4%

4.37%

4.46%

4.49%

4.2%

4.19%

4.07%

4.0%

4.46%

4.43% 4.30%

4.26%

3.8% 3.6% 3.4%

3.53%

3.57%

Feb-13

Mar-13

3.45%

3.54%

3.2% 3.0%

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates decreased 0.13 percentage points in February, which should have boosted sales. Access to credit, limited inventory, and winter weather could all be discouraging buyers despite the lower interest rate.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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Virginia Monthly Home Sales Report

February 2014

The Virginia Association of REALTORS® (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 28,000 REALTORS® active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership’s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Chief of Marketing and Communications Virginia Association of REALTORS® 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.VARealtor.com/HomeSales Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by RE Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere.

Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS® Analysis by the Virginia Center for Housing Research at Virginia Tech

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2014-02 Home Sales Report  

The February 2014 Home Sales Report from the Virginia Association of REALTORS®