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Rethinking the South Puget Sound Region: Trends and Prospects Ali Modarres


POTENTIAL [pə-ˈten(t)-shəl] •  A word used to express possibility for success AND under achievement. •  The possibility that something might happen or result from given condiJons. •  What are the given condiJons?


Historical Pa8erns of Popula:on Growth 700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

Tacoma

SeaYle

EvereY

Spokane

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

1940

1930

1920

1910

1900

0

1890

100,000


•  Yes…you could have been a contender! •  Now, get over it.


Let’s start afresh.


Where is the South Sound? •  The South Sound according to me: –  From Burien and SeaTac to Olympia, including Kitsap county. –  42 ciJes/census places


0 McChord AFB

Fox Island

Steilacoom

Normandy Park

Fircrest

PaciďŹ c

Milton

Gig Harbor

Waller

Summit

Midland

DuPont

Fife

Edgewood

Sumner

Vashon

Lakeland North

Lakeland South

Artondale

Fort Lewis

Elk Plain

Tumwater

Cascade-Fairwood

Tukwila

Frederickson

Graham

SeaTac

Spanaway

Des Moines

University Place

Parkland

Puyallup

Lacey

Olympia

Burien

South Hill

Lakewood

Auburn

Federal Way

Kent

Tacoma

2014 Popula:on

250000

200000

150000

100000

50000


0

-5000

-10000 Fort Lewis

Lakeland North

Elk Plain

Waller

McChord AFB

Summit

Steilacoom

Normandy Park

Vashon

Edgewood

Lakewood

Fircrest

Fox Island

Sumner

Midland

Des Moines

Gig Harbor

PaciďŹ c

Milton

Lakeland South

University Place

SeaTac

Tukwila

Artondale

Fife

Puyallup

Olympia

Tumwater

DuPont

Spanaway

Tacoma

Federal Way

Parkland

Lacey

Kent

Frederickson

Graham

Burien

South Hill

Auburn

2000-2014 Popula:on Growth

40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000


0.0 Fort Lewis

McChord AFB

Waller

Lakeland North

Elk Plain

Summit

Steilacoom

Lakewood

Normandy Park

Vashon

Des Moines

Tacoma

Edgewood

University Place

SeaTac

Federal Way

Sumner

Fircrest

Olympia

Kent

Tukwila

Lakeland South

Midland

Puyallup

Gig Harbor

Total

PaciďŹ c

Milton

Fox Island

Spanaway

Lacey

Tumwater

Parkland

Artondale

Burien

South Hill

Auburn

Fife

Graham

Frederickson

-50.0 DuPont

% 2000-2014 Growth

300.0

250.0

200.0

150.0

100.0

50.0


•  Individually, these places don’t have the necessary scale to aYract aYenJon on the (loud) global stage. •  Together, that’s a different story! •  We have to overcome the history of uneven development in the state of Washington, emoJonally and through strategic economic development.


What do we have together (aka our condiJon)?


Demography


A regional perspecJve •  As of the Census 2014 populaJon esJmate, the 42 ciJes/census places in the South Sound (as defined by me) housed slightly more people than the ciJes of SeaYle, Bellevue, Renton, Redmond, and Kirkland, combined. –  1.2 million versus 1.05 million


Pierce County 20

18

16

14

12

10

6.8

1.5 1.3

3.5 3.8

5.4 3.5

2

5.5

6.5 5.1

7.4 6.5

6.6 7.4

6.9 7.8

6.5 7.5

4

6.9 6.7

6

2000 14.2 15.2

14.5 12.9

8

13.1

16.8

2014

0

Under 5 5 to 9 years years

10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 years years years years years years years years years years years and over


Median Age King County 40

38

37.2

36

35.7

34

Thurston County

38.4

35.8

32

36.5

Kitsap County 39.3

30

34.1 34.7

35.8

37.5 Snohomish County

Pierce County

2014

2000


Average Household Size by County •  •  •  •  • 

King Kitsap Pierce Thurston Snohomish Source: 2010-2014 ACS

2.44 (SeaYle, 2.1) 2.51 2.64 (Tacoma, 2.49) 2.52 2.67


CondiJon 1 •  A Family and Child-Friendly Region •  Shim from being unintenJonal to intenJonal desJnaJons for families. •  Housing affordability should not be the only factor for the aYracJon of families with children. •  We need to plan our ciJes to be family and child-friendly…and adverJse ourselves that way.


Diversity


Growing Diverse •  ComparaJve growth rates of racial and ethnic groups between 2000 and 2014 (Pierce County): •  Overall populaJon = 18.7% (average annual 1.34%) •  Non-Hispanic White PopulaJon = 6.6% (average annual growth 0.55%) •  Non-Hispanic Asian PopulaJon = 39% (average annual growth 2.8%) •  LaJno populaJon = 119% (average annual growth 8.5%)


Pa8erns •  Bifurcated immigrant labor market (405 versus I-5 corridor)


Industry by Na:vity - State of Washington Extrac:on U:li:es Unemployed Military Informa:on Social Services Agriculture Wholesale Transporta:on Service Administra:on Finance Construc:on Educa:on Entertainment Manufacturing Medical Retail Professional

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

Total Employment

American by Birth

Foreign Born Ci:zen

Foreign Born Not Ci:zen

600000


Labor Par:cipa:on by Industry and by Na:vity - State of Washington Extrac:on

Professional 20.0

Manufacturing

18.0 U:li:es

16.0

Entertainment

14.0 12.0 Military

Retail

10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0

Informa:on

Medical

2.0 0.0 Social Services

Educa:on

Wholesale

Agriculture

Administra:on

Construc:on

Transporta:on

Service Finance

American by Birth

Foreign Born Ci:zen

Foreign Born Not Ci:zen


CondiJon 2 •  Growth driven by diversity •  Be a welcoming region for new labor. –  Welcoming regions typically succeed (Dallas-Fort Worth, Philadelphia and Emilia Romagna, Italy)

•  Immigrant labor will keep the region young, culturally vibrant and economically successful.


Housing and TransportaJon


Labor Movement •  93% of King County residents work in King County •  Nearly 36,000 work in Snohomish and 25,000 in Pierce County. •  73% of Pierce County residents work in Pierce County. •  Nearly 24% work in King County


•  This movement is caused by uneven paYerns of housing affordability, housing type and employment. •  These are all indicators of uneven economic development.


Housing Permits by Housing Type 2013 14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

KING

KITSAP

MF 50+

PIERCE

MF 1-49

SF

SNOHOMISH


CondiJon 3 •  Serving the housing needs of the region. •  Use housing as a jumping board for labor recruitment. •  Help yourself and help the quality of life in this region.


Economy


A Regional PerspecJve • The five counJes of Snohomish, King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Thurston had about 190,000 worksites as of the 3rd week of December 2015. • They employed about 1.97 million people. • The ciJes in my South Sound housed about 45,000 worksites (or 24% of all worksite s). They also collecJvely employed about 507,000 individuals (26%).


0.0

SNOHOMISH

TUKWILA

EDMONDS

LAKEWOOD

ISSAQUAH

GIG HARBOR

BREMERTON

BOTHELL

FEDERAL WAY

AUBURN

REDMOND

PUYALLUP

RENTON

LYNNWOOD

KIRKLAND

KENT

OLYMPIA

EVERETT

BELLEVUE

TACOMA

SEATTLE

Top 20 Ci:es by Number of Worksites – Puget Sound Region

30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0


Percentage of Worksites by County

THURSTON 7%

PIERCE 19%

KITSAP 7%

KING 67%


Firms by Employee size by County 2015 100000 90000 80000 10000+

70000

5000-9999 1000-4999

60000

500-999 250-499

50000

100-249 50-99

40000

20-49 10-19

30000

5-9 1-4

20000 10000 0 KING

KITSAP

PIERCE

SNOHOMISH

THURSTON

Kitsap, Pierce & Thurston


KING

Employment Size

3% 1%

1-4

6%

5-9

9%

10-19 20-49 50-99 58%

23%

100-249 250-499 500-999 1000-4999

Kitsap, Pierce & Thurston 2% 1%

1-4

6%

5-9

8%

10-19 20-49 50-99

20% 63%

100-249 250-499 500-999 1000-4999


Employment by Industry

Mining and Oil and Gas ExtracJon

Management of Companies and Enterprise

Mining and Oil and Gas ExtracJon

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and HunJng

Management of Companies and Enterprise UJliJes Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and HunJng TransportaJon and Warehousing UJliJes Arts, Entertainment, and RecreaJon TransportaJon and Warehousing

Arts, Entertainment, and RecreaJon Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing AdministraJve, Support, Waste Management and RemediaJon Services AdministraJve, Support, Waste Management and RemediaJon Services Finance and Insurance Finance and Insurance Wholesale Wholesale InformaJon InformaJon Other Services (Except Public AdministraJon) Other Services (Except Public AdministraJon) ConstrucJon ConstrucJon EducaJonal Services EducaJonal Services Public AdministraJon Public AdministraJon Professional, ScienJďŹ c, and Technical Services Professional, ScienJďŹ c, and Technical Services Manufacturing Manufacturing

AccommodaJon and Food Services AccommodaJon and Food Services Healthcare and Social Assistance Healthcare and Social Assistance Retail Trade

Retail Trade

0 0

King

10000 50000 20000

100000 40000 150000 30000 50000

Kitsap Pierce Pierce Kitsap Thurston Thurston

200000 70000 250000 60000 80000


Employment by Industry – Pierce County Pierce Mining and Oil and Gas ExtracJon Mining and Oil and Gas ExtracJon Management of Companies and Enterprise Management of Companies and Enterprise Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and HunJng Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and HunJng UJliJes UJliJes TransportaJon and Warehousing

TransportaJon and Warehousing

Arts, Entertainment, and RecreaJon

Arts, Entertainment, and RecreaJon Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing AdministraJve, Support, Waste Management and RemediaJon Services AdministraJve, Support, Waste Management and RemediaJon Services Finance and Insurance Finance and Insurance Wholesale Wholesale InformaJon InformaJon Other Services (Except Public AdministraJon) Other Services (Except Public AdministraJon) ConstrucJon ConstrucJon EducaJonal Services EducaJonal Services

Public AdministraJon

Public AdministraJon Professional, ScienJfic, and Technical Services Professional, ScienJfic, and Technical Services Manufacturing Manufacturing AccommodaJon and Food Services AccommodaJon and Food Services Healthcare and Social Assistance Retail Trade Healthcare and Social Assistance 0 Retail Trade

5000

0

10000 Pierce 20000

15000

40000

20000

25000

60000

30000

80000

35000

40000

100000

45000

120000

50000

140000


Employment by Industry

Mining and Oil and Gas ExtracJon

Management of Companies and Enterprise

Mining and Oil and Gas ExtracJon

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and HunJng

Management of Companies and Enterprise UJliJes Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and HunJng TransportaJon and Warehousing UJliJes Arts, Entertainment, and RecreaJon TransportaJon and Warehousing

Arts, Entertainment, and RecreaJon Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing AdministraJve, Support, Waste Management and RemediaJon Services AdministraJve, Support, Waste Management and RemediaJon Services Finance and Insurance Finance and Insurance Wholesale Wholesale InformaJon InformaJon Other Services (Except Public AdministraJon) Other Services (Except Public AdministraJon) ConstrucJon ConstrucJon EducaJonal Services EducaJonal Services Public AdministraJon Public AdministraJon Professional, ScienJďŹ c, and Technical Services Professional, ScienJďŹ c, and Technical Services Manufacturing Manufacturing

AccommodaJon and Food Services AccommodaJon and Food Services Healthcare and Social Assistance Healthcare and Social Assistance Retail Trade

Retail Trade

0 0

20000 20000 40000 30000 60000 10000 40000 80000 50000 100000 60000 120000 70000 140000 80000

Kitsap Kitsap Pierce Pierce

Thurston Thurston


Mining and Oil and Gas ExtracJon Management of Comanies and Enterprise Agriclture, Forestry, Fishing and HunJng UJliJes TransportaJon and Warehousing Arts, Entertainment, and RecreaJon Real Estate and Rental and Leasing AdministraJve and Support and Waste Management and RemidiaJon Finance and Insurance Wholesale InformaJon Other Services (Except Public AdministraJon) ConstrucJon EducaJonal Services Public AdministraJon Professional, ScienJďŹ c, and Technical Services Manufacturing AccommodaJon and Food Services Healthcare and Social Assistance Retail Trade

Kitsap

0

20000

40000

Pierce

Thurston

S. King CiJes

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000


CondiJon 4 •  Define a new region and build economic and poliJcal alliances beyond your given jurisdicJons. •  South Sound I-5 Corridor Economic Development IniJaJve?


CondiJon 5 •  We are labor rich and will have access to more over Jme –  UPS –  PLU –  Community and Technical Colleges –  UWT •  Business School (Annually graduates about 300, undergrad + grad) •  InsJtute of Technology (Over 600 BS in Commuter Science since 2006-2007 academic year and over 200 MS)

•  We need to capitalize on labor to aYract capital.


POTENTIAL [pə-ˈten(t)-shəl] •  The possibility that something might happen or result from given condiJons. •  Strategically deploy the South Sound condiJons that actualize your potenJal.


Thank You!!!

Profile for UW Tacoma

Rethinking the South Puget Sound Region: Trends and Prospects  

By Dr. Ali Modarres, Urban Studies Program, University of Washington Tacoma

Rethinking the South Puget Sound Region: Trends and Prospects  

By Dr. Ali Modarres, Urban Studies Program, University of Washington Tacoma

Profile for uwtacoma