per cen t, while, in the group w hic h possessed o nly primary school qu a lifi cati o ns, up to Grade 8 in our system , the ra te was 9.4 per cent. It is obvio us then that , while unemploym ent among yo ung people has increased substantially , those in th e gro up w ho have rece ived more education a re stili at a substanti al relati e advantage in secu ring employment altho ugh, to an increasing exte nt , the jobs th ey secure m ay not fully exp loit the ir qu a lifications. Canada's re cord in prov iding educat ional opportun ities for its peop le is good by com parison w ith many in du stria li ze d or de ve loped countries. By 1970, 30 .9 per ce nt of the total Ca nad ian population was enro lled in fu ll- time ed ucational programs of all type s, the hig hes t pe rcentag e a mong the ten countries for which the 1976 OEC D re port , Re views
of Nati onal Policies for Ed ucation. pre sented data. T he comparable figure in Fra nce was 242 per cent, in the Uni ted Ki ngdo m 19.8 pe r cent, in the USSR 25.8 per cent , and in Wcs t Ge rm any 20.6 per ce nt. In te rms of e nrolment as a percent age of popu lation and in terms of the allocation of funds to education as a percentage of Gross Nationa l Product , C anada , by 1970, had accomplis hed mo re than alm ost any developed soc iety . Canada ranks ne xt to on ly the U ni ted States and the S R in terms of the proportion of the 20 to 24 yea r age g roup en ro ll ed in post-secondary educati o na l pro g ra ms. Ne ve rth e less, the 1971 Ce ns us showed th at 937 ,000 Ca nadians had le ss th an a G rade 5 educatio n while almo st 4 million othe rs had on ly between a G rade 5 and Grade 8 ed uca ti on. As one would expec t, th fig ures vary from region to region . W hen age gro ups are considered, one finds that of tho se not attending sc hool 22 per cent of the 15 to 19 age group and 14 per cent of th e 20 to 24 age group possess le ss than a Grade 9 education in the nati o n as a whole . In th e Ma ritime provinces and Newfoundland, the figu res are much higher. In Ne wfoundland, in 1971, 42 per cen t of the 15 to 19 yea r age group had less than a Gra de 9 educ ation and no oth e r training. Compa rab le figu re s are 48 per cen t in Prince Edward Island, 39 per cen t in Nova Scotia, an d 44 per cent in Ne w B ru nswick . T his is what is known as a ' regio nal disparit y ' ! In terms of employabi lity in c urren t labour markets , the implica tions of these figures are obvio us. Despite the hu ge investmen t we have made in the provision of
14
educational opportun it ies, a very considerable proportion of o ur young people are inadequate ly educated and trained for the requirements of our ;;oc iety tod? ', 1nd even more in adequatel y equ ip ped fo r de ajing w ith acceleratin g change in the future . As a fin a l no te a nd at a nother level, the educationa l system in '. <l nada has cons i : il~ ntly failed to provide suffic ie nt training opportun itie s in certain advanced technical and qu as i-professional fields whe re strong market demand existed a nd , to some extent, still exi sts . As in co untries like Australia, thi s oap betwee n supply and demand ha s bee n filled by highly trained immigrant s , some from areas of the world to which their sk ills were crucia l if minimum
"Any university, which
rushes to tailor its
programs to the most
recent crystal-gazing
of the manpower
forecasters, does
so at its periL"
development goals were to be achieved. The federal government ha:; estimated that, during the 196 1-1 97 1 period , ove r 30 ,000 profes s iona l and technical positions were fil led by immi g rants because of th e lack of s uitably trained Canadians. So far, then , I have attempted to es tab li sh the dimen sions and so me of the characteri sti cs and causes of th e youth un em plo ym ent problem in the developing world, the de velope d countries, and more sp eci fically, of course, in the case of Canad~ . I hope I have establ ished that the re is a problem and that that problem has se rio us econo mic, socia l and political implications which must conce rn us al l. have a lso attempted to illustrate th at , des pite massive advance s in the provisio n of educationa l opportunities of a ll types in both the deve loped a nd de ve loping world , the re have been failures and a great deal remain s to be done if we e xpec t to achieve minimum goa ls in education . . . â&#x20AC;˘ . Concern about the extent of unemplo yment among yo ung people and, more spec i fica ll y, among those with post-second a ry qualifications has a lre ady had an impact o n the universitie s in Ont ar io.
It pro bably played a part , impossible to quantify, in an en ro lment decline in the fall of 1977 of more than tw o per cent across th e un ive rsity sys tem in thi s p rovince w hen ea rli e r p rojec tio ns had indi c~ted mode st conti nued grow th up to 1982 or 1983 when the de mographic fac tor I mention ed earlier w o uld begin to operate. A further dec rease of the same size or large r is now predicted fo r this fall, la rgel y acco unt ed for by a decline in the participation rate, th e proportion of the trad iti o nal university age population which actually e lects to enrol in university programs. Last fall' s unexpec ted dec lin e occu rred both in new entrants and studen ts already in-course who elected not to I' turn , the stop-o ut p henomenon we obse rved sporadically late in the I 960 ' s and early in the 1970 's. Pe rhap s , stud ents who were s uccessful in securing summe r employment took the option, in the face of ac ute economic uncerta in ty, of remaining in the la bou r force . Another obvio us effect ha s been a shi ft f rom so-ca lled general education courses to th ose which are perce ived to teach specific job skil ls o r which lead directly to emp loy ment oppo rtunities. M a ny observe rs have com men ted upon the vas t expansion of app li cations a nd the frantic competition to gain entry to hi gh -level professional programs like law and medicine although there is some e vi dence now that, particularly in law. thi s press ure mig ht ease s ignificantly as c~ree r oppo rtuniti es fo r g rad uates are thought to be softening. These were percei ved as prestige professions with hi gher income possibilities but there is abu nd ant evidence that income expectations held by most uni ve rsit y gradua tes a re fa lling rapid ly in response to conditions in the la bour market . One of the most dramatic shifts has been to business administration programs of a ll type s and to economics, the ' dismal scie nce ' a ~ : 'a rl yle put it. T he humanities, the traditional he art of university programs, have been hit pa rtic ul a rly hard by thi s tren d toward what student s think are more 'practical' or 'vocationally o rient ed' fields of st ud y, Th e implications in terms of staffing and curricu la s hou ld be quite obvious to you particularly in jurisdictions lik e O ntario w here funding from government is a fu nct ion, to a la rge e xtent, of enrolme nt levels in the system . Supplementing thi s poin t, w hil e uni versi ty enrolment fell, en rolment in the colleges of applied arts a nd tec hn o logy in
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