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Table 4—Location of Oil (%) by Scenario at 24/48 Hours After a Spill

LocaTion oF spiLLed oiL aT 24/48 Hrs (%)

ouTer Harbour

inner Harbour

cenTraL Harbour

indian arm

porT moody arm

Westridge

Trace / Trace

1% / 2%

91% /80%

8% /12%

1% /6%

5% /6%

67% /63%

27% /29%

1% /1%

1% /1%

59% /54%

39% /42%

2% /2%

Trace / Trace

Trace / Trace

Second Narrows First Narrows

From the four scenarios, Dr. Galt concluded that oil spreads quickly in the physical setting of Burrard Inlet described in Section 5 and has the potential to foul all the basins of the inlet, including Indian Arm, a place of special importance to Tsleil-Waututh. A reasonable worst-case spill has the potential to cover quickly many square kilometres of the water surface with oil. For example, in Figure 12 a spill modelled at Second Narrows on October 1, 2005, spread into the Outer Harbour and Central Harbour within 24 hours. In Figure 13, a spill modelled in the Outer Harbour on August 19, 2007, spread into the Strait of Georgia within 48 hours. For a full range of model examples, see the Oil Spill Time Progression Atlas in Appendix 6. Once Dr. Galt finished his work, Tsleil-Waututh used the model and his directions to further develop the scenarios. For each of the three spill locations at or inside First Nar-

rows, an ensemble of runs was compiled for calendar year 2005.26 Using a stochastic approach, we developed data on oil location, stranding, and length of fouled shoreline. Additional analysis by Tsleil-Waututh found that spills tended to concentrate in the nearest basin or two, as illustrated in Table 4. The Central Harbour and Indian Arm are at particular risk from a spill at Westridge Marine Terminal. For example, on average 91% (7,280 cubic metres) of the oil from an 8,000 cubic metre spill at Westridge Marine Terminal remains in the Central Harbour at 24 hours, with the balance moving primarily into Indian Arm. At 48 hours, more oil has moved into Indian and Port Moody Arms, leaving on average only 80% (or 6,400 cubic metres) in the Central Harbour. For a full range of model examples, see the Oil Spill Ensemble Location Atlas in Appendix 7.

This map is a living document and is intended to be amended and refined over time. It is not an expression of the location of Tsleil-Waututh aboriginal title, rights, or interests. The data used to produce this map originate from many sources and are presented without prejudice. This map is the property of the Tsleil-Waututh Nation and may not be reproduced without written permission. Sources of spatial data for this map include Tsleil-Waututh Nation, BC Government, Government of Canada, Integrated Cadastral Information Society, Metro Vancouver. Map produced May 2015 by the Tsleil-Waututh Nation.

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Dr. Galt used calendar year 2005 because a sophisticated analysis of wind speed, direction, and variability was available for the entirety of Burrard Inlet and could be incorporated into the oil spill trajectory model, making it a more reliable predictor of spill spread.

assessmenT of the Trans mounTain pipeLine and Tanker expansion proposaL

67

Profile for Tseil-Waututh Nation Sacred Trust Initiative

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