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Title : (S//NF) France: 2012 Presidential Election Originator Classification : SECRET//NOFORN Levy date : 2011/11/17 Originator Classification : SECRET//NOFORN Type Start Coverage Stop Coverage Limited Duration

2011/11/21

2012/07/31

Expires 2012/09/29

Last Edited 2011/11/17 13:22Z

(U//FOUO) Supported Element(s): STATE/INR DIA/USEUCOM CIA

Related Non-SIGINT Discipline(s) : Discipline

Comment

HUMINT (S//REL TO USA, AUS, CAN, GBR, NZL) Additional versions of this requirement have been sent to HUMINT collectors. OSINT

(U//FOUO) Alternative versions of requirements have been tasked to OSC


Related IN Number(s) : 2005-348 Background/Justification : (S//NF) Analysts in CIA's Office of Russian and European Analysis (OREA) closely watched the Oct 9th and Oct 16th Socialist primaries and will be closely monitoring the April 22nd and May 6th 2012 Presidential elections. Of particular interest is President Sarkozy, the Socialist Party (PS), and other potential candidate's plans and intentions for these elections. Analysts assess that the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), the current ruling party, is not assured of winning the presidential election and, as a result, analysts are interested in the electoral strategy of the non-ruling parties listed below. Additional information on these topics will help analysts assess, and prepare key US policymakers for, the post-election French political landscape and the potential impact on US-France relations. Guidance for UCS : (C//NF) ██████████ please contact ██████████ CIA/DI Office of Collection Strategies and Analysis (CSAA), IC E-Mail ██████████@cia.ic.gov, NSTS phone 935████. (S//NF) These requirements are NOFORN due to Friends-on-Friends sensitivities. (S//NF) French political parties and persons of interest include: A. (S//NF) Socialist Party (PS) B. (S//NF) National Front (FN) C. (S//NF) Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) D. (S//NF) Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) E. (S//NF) Nicolas Sarkozy F. (S//NF) Martine Aubry G. (S//NF) Francois Hollande H. (S//NF) Marine Le Pen


EEI : A EEI Classification : SECRET//NOFORN Originator EEI Classification : SECRET//NOFORN EEI Title : (S//NF) Sarkozy and Contenders Strategic Election Plans Question(s) : 1. (S//NF) Report on deliberations by Sarkozy, or other high level government officials regarding the presidential candidates in the 2012 election. 2. (S//NF) Report efforts by Sarkozy, the Socialist party, or others to manage the 2012 elections, including: A. (S//NF) Discussions that indicate Sarkozy's level of confidence in his ability to contest the election. B. (S//NF) Attempts to pass guidance or directives to parties or individuals on supporting activities or initiatives. C. (S//NF) How Sarkozy and his advisors interact. 3. (S//NF) Report any discussions regarding guidance from Sarkozy or Martine Aubry, Francois Hollande, or Dominique Strauss-Kahn on the upcoming elections. SIGINT sub-discipline(s) : COMINT The following table is classified: SECRET//NOFORN Topic/Geopolitical/Priority Citation

Topic

Topic ID

SIGIN Ba MB Geopolitical National Contribu T nd B Area Priority tion Priorit y

DEPS/Democrat ization and DEPS. 9A2011-572-01 A Political Z Stability Reporting Criteria : Report Type Delivery Mechanism EGRAM

Electrical Message

PROFORMA Datalinks : No

DIP France

Reporting Timeline 72 Hours After Recognition/Detection

X

Key

9


EEI : B EEI Classification : SECRET//NOFORN Originator EEI Classification : SECRET//NOFORN EEI Title : (S//NF) Non-Ruling Political Parties and Candidates Strategic Election Plans Question(s) : 1. (S//NF) Report on rising party leaders, newly developed political parties or movements, and emerging presidential candidates, to include: A. (S//NF) Party platforms, plans, or strategies for the upcoming election. B. (S//NF) Efforts to influence and implement political decisions. C. (S//NF) Support or opposition towards parties or leaders. D. (S//NF) Support from local government officials, government elites, or business elites. E. (S//NF) Views and characterization of the United States. F. (S//NF) Efforts to reach out to leaders of other countries, to include but not limited to, Germany, UK, Libya, Israel, Palestine, Syria, Cote d'Ivoire. 2. (S//NF) Report on the major sources of funding for the presidential candidates and registered parties. 3. (S//NF) Report on the presidential candidates' views on the French economy. A. (S//NF) What current economic policies do they see as not working? B. (S//NF) What policies do they promote to help boost France's economic growth prospects? C. (S//NF) What are their opinions on the German model of export-led growth? 4. (S//NF) Report on the presidential contenders' views on the euro zone crisis to include, but not limited to: A. (S//NF) Their views on the Greek debt crisis. B. (S//NF) The role of France and Germany in the management of the crisis. C. (S//NF) The vulnerability of the French government and French banks to a Greek default. 5. (S//NF) Please report on any specific proposals or recommendations to help solve the euro-zone crisis. SIGINT sub-discipline(s) : COMINT The following table is classified: SECRET//NOFORN Topic/Geopolitical/Priority Citation

9B2011572-01

Topic

Topic ID

DEPS/Democratizatio DEPS. n and Political Z Stability

Reporting Criteria : Report Type Delivery Mechanism EGRAM

Electrical Message

PROFORMA Datalinks : No

SIGIN Ba MB Geopolitical National Contribu T nd B Area Priority tion Priori ty A DIP

France

X

Key

Reporting Timeline 72 Hours After Recognition/Detection

9


EEI : C EEI Classification : SECRET//NOFORN Originator EEI Classification : SECRET//NOFORN EEI Title : (S//NF) Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) Strategic Election Plans Question(s) : 1. (S/NF) Report any discussions by UMP members or leadership on perceived vulnerabilities to maintaining power after the 2012 Presidential election, to include: A. (S/NF) Discussions to address the perceived vulnerabilities, or efforts to develop or change the party's ideological mission. B. (S/NF) Any discussions regarding Nicolas Sarkozy's support for UMP and the value he places on the continuation of the party's dominance. C. (S/NF) Any schisms or alliances that develop among the elite in the UMP, and the reasons for such events. D. (S/NF) Report UMP leadership and member opinions of President Sarkozy, to include: E. (S/NF) Private reactions to Sarkozy's political initiatives and campaign strategy. SIGINT sub-discipline(s) : COMINT The following table is classified: SECRET//NOFORN Topic/Geopolitical/Priority Citation

9C2011572-01

Topic

Topic ID

DEPS/Democratizatio DEPS. n and Political A Z Stability

Reporting Criteria : Report Type Delivery Mechanism EGRAM

SIGIN Ba MB Geopolitical National Contribu T nd B Area Priority tion Priori ty

Electrical Message

PROFORMA Datalinks : No

DIP France

X

Reporting Timeline 72 Hours After Recognition/Detection

Key

9


Validation Type: FNV Last Status Change 2011/11/17 13:22Z

Levy Date 2011/11/17 13:22Z

Levied Version 1

Author █████████ CIA/CIA ██████████@cia.ic.gov Commercial: 703-███-████ Secure : 933-████ Validation Chain INMG

Primary Lead

Alternate Lead

CIA/CSAA

██████████

██████████

Sponsor

CIA/CIA/CSAA

CIA

██████████@cia. ██████████@cia. ic.gov ic.gov Commercial: 571███-████

CIA/CSAA

Commercial: Secure : 937-████

Secure : 935-████ NSIAPS Chair SIRVES Chair

██████████ SIGCOM/NSIAPS

██████████ NSA/NSIAPS

NSIAPS ██████████@nsa ██████████@nsa .ic.gov .ic.gov Commercial: 202███-████

Commercial: Secure : 561-████

Secure : 561-████ C.S.M. Point of Contact ██████████ NSA/S1111 ██████████@nsa.ic.gov

Editor


Commercial: 240-███-████ Secure : 966-████

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