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W

R EE E K L Y P O R T

07 APRIL - 11 APRIL 2014

Buy on fear, sell on greed.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

The trend is your friend.

Amateurs want to be right.

Professionals want to make money.


MARKET OUTLOOK

MARKET EVENTS

The rupee ended stronger on Friday after trading weaker for most part of the session on the back of a retreat in domestic shares from record highs. Lack of large demand and foreign bank selling in late trade helped the rupee notch up some gains. The week, however, was volatile and was also marked by heavy dollar buying by the central bank looking to replenish its foreign exchange reserves and slow down the rise in the rupee. Latest data showed foreign exchange reserves rose by $5.04 bn to $303.67 bn in the week. Sentiments are cautious ahead of India's five-week general elections set to kick off.

 Rupee off lows as foreign banks sell Dollars.  Sterling on weaker run after data, dollar gains.  Yuan weakens but stabilises for week on PBOC guidance.  Euro weakens in Asia after Draghi comments.

CURRENCIES

USDINR

PREVIOUS

CURRENT

RATE

RATE

60.1675

60.4400

KEY RATES As on 04/04/2014 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)

60.3210

REPO RATE

8%

REVERSE REPO

7%

CRR

4%

INFLATION

4.68%

0.45

EURINR

82.6050

82.8125

0.25

GBPINR

99.9575

100.1850

0.22

JPYINR

58.7700

58.1900

-0.98


USDINR

USDINR last week strongly rebounded from deeper supports as it violated 60.0000 mark and moved towards 23.6% retracement and closed the week on a flat to positive note. If it sustains above 60.7500 then some upmove is expected and next resistance zone is seen near 61.000061.2500. On lower side, major support is seen around 59.9500 from current levels.

EURINR

EURINR last week also traded around the major support 82.8500 and closed around it. Strength can be seen if it holds above the resistance of 83.6000 and it may lead towards the higher resistance around 84.0000 mark. On the other hand if bearishness continues then immediate support is seen at 82.4000 below which selling pressure may increase.


PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

59.9000

59.3000

58.5000

61.1000

61.7000

62.2000

EURINR

82.0000

81.2000

80.4000

83.4000

84.0000

84.5000

GBPINR

99.7000

99.1000

98.5000

100.9000

101.6000

102.2000

JPYINR

57.7000

57.0000

56.3000

58.8000

59.5000

60.2000

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES  Brazil Real Rises Most in Emerging Markets on Rollovers.  Canadian Dollar Climbs to Strongest in Six Weeks on Jobs Growth.  Mexico’s Currency Advances Most in Two Months on Export Outlook.

DATE

TIME

COUNTRY

EVENT

BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE

PREVIOUS LEVEL

08-April-2014

07:30 PM

US

JOLTS Job Openings

3.99M

3.97M

09-April-2014

11:30 PM

US

FOMC Meeting minutes

-

-

10-April-2014

06:00 PM

US

Unemployment Claims

314k

326k

11-April-2014

05:30 PM

US

IIP

-

-


DISCLAIMER

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Currency weekly report 07 april to 11 april