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WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

W

R EE E K L Y P O R T

23 DEC - 27 DEC 2013

Buy on fear, sell on greed.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

The trend is your friend.

Amateurs want to be right.

Professionals want to make money.


MARKET OUTLOOK

MARKET EVENTS  Rupee snaps 3 days of losses on strong foreign fund flows.  Sterling dragged down by large UK twin deficits.  Dollar buoyant after Fed taper, euro slips on S&P EU downgrade.  Yuan steady, tight money market adds to appreciation pressure.

CURRENCIES

USDINR

PREVIOUS

CURRENT

RATE

RATE

62.3575

62.2250

The dollar gave back earlier gains against most major currencies and dipped on Friday after better-thanexpected U.S. growth data enticed investors out of safe-haven dollar positions and into higher-yielding currencies and stocks. Investors also sold the dollar for profits after locking in gains from the Fed Reserve's decision to trim its USD85 bn in monthly bond purchases by USD10 bn. The dollar rallied after the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it was cutting its USD85 bn monthly bond-buying program by USD10 bn in January now that the economy is gaining steam.

KEY RATES As on 20/12/2013 % CHANGE REFERENCE RATE (USD)

62.2450

REPO RATE

7.75%

REVERSE REPO

6.75%

CRR

4%

INFLATION

7.52%

-0.21

EURINR

85.5300

84.9675

-0.65

GBPINR

101.4975

101.6475

0.14

JPYINR

60.1825

59.6150

-0.94


USDINR

USDINR last week traded in tight range and found strong support around the trend line of 61.4000 on daily charts and settled on a flat note. Bulls can prevail if it closes above the immediate resistance of 62.6000 and may face next resistance around 63.3000. While, 61.0500 is still acting as major support for it.

EURINR

EURINR last week rebounded from the resistance of 84.8000 and dropped to breach the immediate support of 85.0000 and closed around it. It is moving in the same broad range of 86.3000-82.9000 since few weeks and a proper breakout on either side will decide its trend further.


PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

61.6000

61.0000

60.3000

63.0500

63.6000

64.5000

EURINR

84.4000

83.5000

82.7000

85.8000

86.7000

87.5000

GBPINR

101.2000

100.3000

99.3000

102.5000

103.2000

104.1000

JPYINR

58.8000

57.6000

56.3000

60.4000

61.4000

62.5000

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES  Dollar Rises for Eighth Week Vs Yen as Fed Trims Bond Buying.  Canadian Dollar Drops to 3-Year Low on Central-Bank Divergence.  Pound Declines Versus Euro as Deficit Widens, Confidence Drops.

DATE

TIME

COUNTRY

EVENT

BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE

PREVIOUS LEVEL

23-Dec-2013

07:00 PM

US

Core PCE Index

0.1%

0.1%

24-Dec-2013

07:00 PM

US

Core Durable Goods Orders

0.9%

0.4%

24-Dec-2013

08:30 PM

US

New Home Sales

449k

444k

26-Dec-2013

07:00 PM

US

Unemployment Claims

382k

379k


DISCLAIMER

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Currency weekly report  

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