NPD Insight
To monitor what’s happening in the ever-changing toy market, NPD collects point-of-sale information from all major toy retailers. This information, combined with our analysts’ industry perspectives, delivers a comprehensive view of what’s selling and where. We also field over 12m consumer surveys annually to help industry leaders understand why consumers shop where they shop and why they buy what they buy. For more information visit www.npd.com. Follow NPD on Twitter @npdgroup.
Will Q2 boost the
toy market? As we move into Q2, Emilie looks at how the fortunes of the Outdoor and Sport Toys category can massively affect overall UK toy sales for the year.
UK Outdoor and Sport Toys % Value sales in Total Toys Outdoor & Sport Toys generated 11% of the total toy market value sales in 2022, but in Q2, it is the biggest supercategory, reaching more than 20% of share
F
2019
2020
2021
2022
for the total toy market decline (-5%), as industry sales ollowing a flat performance in Q4, the toy 30.0 25.0 20.4 excluding Outdoor would have been flat. market is beating expectations for the early 20.0 17.2 15.0 part of 2023 after it grew +1% in January 2023 Perennially successful Outdoor items such as 9.2 10.0 5.6 for value sales, with unit sales also up +1%. Swingball and Bunch O Balloons regularly appear in 5.0 0.0 This demonstrates resilience Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 for the market, despite the prevailing economic conditions. After Christmas, NPD conducted a survey asking UK consumers if they felt their financial situation is going to change in the next Outdoor & Sport Toys generated 11% of the total toy market value sales in 2022, but in six months; 44% said they expected it to Q2, it is the biggest supercategory, reaching more than 20% of share get somewhat or significantly worse.
Emilie Erktan
senior account manager, Toys UK, NPD Source: The NPD Group | Retail Tracking Service | UK | YTD Dec 22
UK Outdoor and Sport Toys % Value sales in Total Toys Document classification: Client/Third Party Confidential
The NPD Group, L.P. | Proprietary and confidential
The growth continues to be driven by categories that performed well in 2022 - namely Building Sets and Plush, with performance of The Lego Group and Squishmallows particularly strong. Games sales were up in January too, driven by Strategic Trading Cards from Pokémon and World Soccer, as well as Non-Strategic Trading Cards/Stickers, which was also boosted by footballrelated items, with the release of the 2023 Premier League products. Overall, Collectibles accounted for 1 in 5 toys sold in 2022, and value sales were up +20% - this trend was even stronger in January with a +26% growth.
2019
2020
2021
2
2022
30.0 25.0
20.4
20.0
17.2
15.0 9.2
10.0
5.6
5.0 0.0
Q1
Q2
the top five bestselling items list across Q2. Almost As we approach Q2, what factors could impact the 10m units of Bubble Toys/Solutions were sold in 2022, UK Toy market over the next quarter? As weDocument all know, classification: Client/Third Party Confidential The NPD Group, L.P. | Proprietary and confidential generating £15m: half of those items were sold between seasonality and the weather can heavily influence April & June, along with 1.5m units of Water Blasters. the fortunes of the UK toy market. Seasonal products At the other end of the price spectrum, Playground account for only a small amount of total Toy sales, Equipment like trampolines, pools, scooters or ridegenerating £22m in 2022 and growing +15% year-onons are considered a more long-term investment that year. However, both Easter and Halloween related consumers keep and reuse over multiple years. Such Toys sales were up +63% last year, and this might be an products were very successful during the first lockdown opportunity for manufacturers and retailers to offer in 2020, as the weather was particularly good that year limited time products to boost sales. and children were effectively confined to the back In Q2, Outdoor and Sport Toys traditionally becomes garden. Playground Equipment is the largest subclass in the largest supercategory, generating more than 20% of value sales, followed by Sport Activities & Games, and the total toy market value sales and 25% of unit sales. It Skates/Skateboards/Scooters. Those three subclasses means that 1 in 4 toy unit sales is potentially an Outdoor accounted for more than half of the Outdoor category and Sports item across these three months, although sales in 2022. After an inclement Q2 in 2022, let’s hope of course the supercategory performance is strongly that the weather in Q2 2023 is better and will drive early impacted by the weather, which no-one can predict. In sales of Outdoor in April and May this year. Q2 2022, Outdoor and Sport Toys value sales were down Expanding the number of licensed items continues to -18% in value versus 2021, and it was largely responsible
Toy World 28
Q3
Q4
The NPD Group | Retail Tracking Service | UKonly | YTD8% Dec of 22 representSource: a potential opportunity in Outdoor; the supercategory’s sales comes from licensed products, versus 31% across Total Toys. That represents a gap 2 worth £52m a year. Pre-school favourites Paw Patrol and Peppa Pig are among the top three Outdoor licences, while newer pre-school shows such as Bluey or Gabby’s Dollhouse clearly have room to expand. Video game licences are another popular theme, with Roblox sales more than doubling year-on year and the Minecraft licence reaching almost £1m in 2022 in Outdoor & Sport Toys. Based on what we saw at the various toy fairs, there will undoubtedly be plenty of innovation in the Outdoor category this year: for example, Gel Blasters launches in the UK after a successful performance in the US market last year, potentially attracting an older demographic and adding value to the category.
The toy industry ideally needs good weather to boost growth in Q2, but new launches, innovations and licences should also help drive the Outdoor and Sport Toys category back to growth this year.