NATIONAL HOUSING REPORT 2012 Housing Recovery is Real
Shrinking Inventory Reducing Sales
Volume 50: September 2012
Both home prices and home sales in September continued at levels higher than last year, according to the RE/MAX National Housing report, a survey of MLS data in 52 metropolitan areas. For the eighth consecutive month, September’s median home price was higher than the previous year. Median prices rose 7.8% from September 2011. Home sales followed a seasonal pattern and dropped lower than levels seen in August, but maintained a level 0.5% higher than sales last year. Inventory was 29.1% below September 2011 and may have contributed to the drop in sales from August. While low inventories are creating bidding wars in some markets, they also have resulted in prices moving higher. “Now that the summer buying season is behind us, we can clearly see that the market made a significant rebound, and 2012 is definitely the year of the housing recovery,” said Margaret Kelly, CEO of RE/MAX, LLC. “Although we still face some serious obstacles in tight lending and shrinking inventory, we believe that the housing market will continue to recover into 2013.”
TRANSACTIONS – YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE 25%
5% -15% -35%
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
September home sales fell 17.5% from August, but remained 0.5% higher than sales in September 2011. September is the fifteenth consecutive month with sales higher than the same month in the previous year. In addition to the seasonal drop from August, September sales were impacted by a continuing reduction of inventory. Of the 52 metro areas surveyed this month, only 29 saw higher sales than one year ago and just 6 saw double digit increases including: Albuquerque, NM +40.9%, Chicago, IL +24.1%, Raleigh-Durham, NC +22.1%, Providence, RI +22.1%, Nashville, TN +21.0% and Denver, CO +11.4% .
SEPT 2012 SEPT 2011 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000
Of all the homes sold in September in the 52 metro areas included in the RE/MAX Housing Survey, the Median Sales Price was $164,989, only 0.7% higher than the August median, but 7.8% higher than September 2011. This marks the eighth month in a row with higher prices than a year ago. Prices peaked this summer in June, but still remained higher than 2011 in July, August and September. Of the 52 metro areas surveyed for the September RE/MAX National Housing Report, an impressive 44 reported prices higher than last year, with 21 metro areas experienced double-digit gains including: Phoenix, AZ +33.3%, Miami, FL +23.1%, Atlanta, GA +23.0%, San Francisco, CA +22.7%, Detroit, MI +20.0%, and Boise +16.3%
DAYS ON MARKET – AVERAGE OF 53 METRO AREAS 105 100 95 90 85 80 75
In September, the average Days on Market for sold homes was 81. This is unchanged from August, but represents a drop of 13 days from the 94 day average in September 2011. September represents the fourth month in the last 12 months with a Days on Market average below 90, and the lowest average since June 2010. The Days on Market average continues to fall in many markets due to very low inventory. Days on Market is the number of days between first being listed in an MLS and when a sales contract is signed.
MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY – AVERAGE OF 53 METRO AREAS The inventory of homes-for-sale in September fell 5.3% from August and 29.1% from inventory levels seen in September 2011. Month-to-month inventories have now fallen for 27 consecutive months. While a shrinking inventory is certainly causing home prices to rise, there’s also a concern that it may also be limiting sales. Given the rate of sales in September, the average Months Supply was 5.5, about two months lower than the 7.7 average seen in September 2011. Very low Months Supply continues to be seen in San Francisco, CA 1.3, Los Angeles, CA 1.7, Orlando, FL 2.6, Denver, CO 2.6, Washington, DC 2.8, Detroit, MI 3.0, San Diego, CA 3.2, Seattle, WA 3.2 and Miami, FL 3.3.
12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0
CONTACT For specific data on the 53 metropolitan areas in this report or to request an interview, please call (303) 796-3667.
ABOUT THE RE/MAX NETWORK RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, real estate industry visionaries who still lead the Denver-based global franchisor today. RE/MAX is recognized as a leading real estate franchisor with the most productive sales force in the industry and a global reach of more than 85 countries. With a passion for the communities in which its agents live and work, RE/MAX is proud to have raised more than $120 million for Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals, Susan G. Komen for the Cure® and other charities. Nobody in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX. Please visit www.remax.com or www.joinremax.com.
DESCRIPTION The RE/MAX National Housing Report is distributed each month on or about the 15th. The first Report was distributed in August 2008. The Report is based on MLS data in approximately 53 metropolitan areas, includes all residential property types, and is not annualized. For maximum representation, many of the largest metro areas in the country are represented, and an attempt is made to include at least one metro from each state. Metro area definitions include the specific counties established by the U.S. Government’s Office of Management and Budget, with some exceptions.
DEFINITIONS Transactions are the total number of closed residential transactions during the given month. Month’s Supply of Inventory is the total number of residential properties listed for sale at the end of the month (active inventory) divided by the number of sales contracts signed (pended) during the month. Where “pended” data is unavailable, this calculation is made using closed transactions. Days on Market is the number of days that pass from the time a property is listed until the property goes under contract for all residential properties sold during the month. Median Sales Price is the median price of all residential properties sold during the month. MLS data is provided by contracted data aggregators, RE/MAX brokerages and regional offices. While MLS data is believed to be accurate, it cannot be guaranteed. MLS data is constantly being updated, making any analysis a snapshot at a particular time. Every month the RE/MAX National Housing Report re-calculates the previous period’s data to ensure accuracy over time. All raw data remains the intellectual property of each local MLS organization. © copyright 2012 RE/MAX, LLC