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7/2/2009 - 11/28/2012

US-Chinese Anti-Submarine Cat and Mouse Game in South China Sea by Bruce Eures (Tommorrow's Headlines, Today » International Relations) Submitted at 7/2/2011 1:26:03 AM

By Hans M. Kristensen [updated 1:50 P.M., 3/10/09] A Chinese trawler tries to snag a towed array cable from the USNS Impeccable(T-AGOS-23) 700 miles south of China’s Hainan submarine base. A People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) frigate and six civilian vessels based in Yulin interfered with two U.S. oceanographic research ships over several days in international waters south of Hainan Island, site of a Chinese fleet buildup. The incident that unfolded in the South China Sea Sunday, where the U.S. Navy says five Chinese ships harassed the U.S. submarine surveillance vessel USNS Impeccable, appears to be part of a wider and dangerous cat and mouse game between U.S. and Chinese submarines and their hunters. News media reports cite Pentagon reports of half a dozen other incidents just within the past week in which U.S. surveillance vessels were “subjected to aggressive behavior, including dozens of fly-bys by Chinese Y-12 maritime surveillance aircraft.” The latest incident allegedly occurred in international waters only 75 miles south of a budding naval base near Yulin on Hainan Island from where China has started

operating new nuclear attack and ballistic missile submarines. The U.S. Navy on its part is busy collecting data on the submarines and seafloor to improve its ability to detect the submarines in peacetime and more efficiently hunt them in case of war. USNS Impeccable (T-AGOS-23) The USNS Impeccable was designed specifically as a platform for the SURTASS towed array and its Low Frequency Array upgrade. An Impeccable “Civilian Crew” The U.S. Navy’s description of the incident states that “a civilian crew mans the ship, which operates under the auspices of the Military Sealift Command.” Yet as one of five ocean surveillance ships, the USNS Impeccable (T-AGOS 23) has the important military mission of using its array of both passive and active low frequency sonar arrays to detect and track submarines. The USNS Impeccable works directly with the Navy’s fleets, and in 2007 operated with the three-carrier strike battle group in Valiant Shield 07 exercise in the Western Pacific. USNS Impeccable is equipped with the Surveillance Towed Array Sensor System (SURTASS), a passive linear underwater surveillance array attached to a tow cable. SURTASS was developed as a floating submarine detection system for deep waters, and the Navy wants to add an active Low Frequency Array (LFA) to improve long-range detection of submarines in shallow waters.

Indeed, according to the U.S. Navy, the USNS Impeccable is “designed specifically as a platform for the SURTASS towed array and its LFA adjunct.” New Chinese Nuclear Submarines at Yulin Naval Base Among Chinese submarines the USNS Impeccable was monitoring is probably the Shang-class (Type-093) nuclear-powered attack submarine, a new class China is building to replace the old Han-class, and which has recently been seen at the Yulin base. A commercial satellite image taken September 15, 2008, shows two Shang-class submarines present at the base, the first time – to my knowledge – that two Shang-class SSNs have been seen at the base at the same time. An earlier image from February 2008 showed a Jin-class (Type-094) ballistic missile submarine at the Hainan base for the first time. The Jin -class is not visible on the later image. China has been reducing its submarine fleet by replacing old boats with fewer modern ones. The submarines normally stay close to shore, but in 2008 sailed on 12 longer patrols– twice as many as in 2007. Time For an Incident Agreement The incident begs the question who or at what level in the Chinese government the harassment in international waters was ordered. The incident will make life harder for those in the Obama administration who want to ease the military

pressure on U.S.-Chinese relations, and easier for hardliners to argue their case. For both countries the Sunday incident and the many other incidents that have occurred recently are reminders that the time is long overdue for an agreement to regulate military operations. Following a break in response to U.S. military sales to Taiwan, U.S.-Chinese midlevel military-to-military talks were scheduled to resume last month, and the Commander of U.S. Pacific Command, Admiral Timothy Keating, said “nascent initiatives” were underway to draw up some “rules of the road” to address some of these issues. Absent a substantial agreement, building on the 1998 US-Chinese Military Maritime Safety Agreement(which already includes discussions on “interpretation of the Rules of the Nautical Road and avoidance of accidents-at-sea”) and the 1972 US-Russian Incidents at Sea Agreement, incidents like the USNS Impeccable incident will continue as a serious irritant and source of mistrust between China and the United States, a situation neither country nor other nations in the region can afford. Additional resources: US-Chinese Military Maritime Safety Agreement (1998)| USRussian Incidents at Sea Agreement (1972)| Secrecy News Blog: U.S., China, and Incidents at Sea

N Korea Military Tactics In A War With US by Bruce Eures (Tommorrow's Headlines, Today » International Relations) Submitted at 3/24/2012 2:40:27 PM

A Strategy Of Massive Retaliations Against US Attacks By Han Ho Suk Director Center for Korean Affairs 4-24-3 North Korea has not only the military power but also the political will to wage total war against the United States. (An English abstract of a paper) 1. North Korea Can Engage the US in Total War North Korea is one of the few nations that can engage in a total war with the United States. The US war

planners recognize this fact. For example, on March 7, 2000, Gen. Thomas A Schwartz, the US commander in Korea at the time, testified at a US congressional hearing that “North Korea is the country most likely to involve the

United States in a large-scale war.” U.S. and South Korean military stage dramatic reenactment of 1950 Inchon landing, using 14,000 troops, September 15. (Photo: AP) North Korea, which can and is willing to face up to the sole military

superpower of the world, cannot be called a weak nation. Nevertheless, Western press and analysts distort the truth and depict North Korea as an “impoverished” nation, starving and on the brink of imminent collapse. An impoverished, starving nation cannot face down a military superpower. Today few nations have military assets strong enough to challenge the US military. Russia, though weakened by the collapse of the Soviet Union, has enough assets to face up to the US. China, somewhat weaker than Russia, too, has strong military that can challenge the US. However, both Russia and China lack the political will to face down the US. KOREA page 2



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In contrast, North Korea has not only the military power but also the political will to wage total war against the United States. North Korea has made it clear that it will strike all US targets with all means, if the US mounted military attacks on North Korea. That North Korea’s threat is no bluff can be seen from the aggressive actions taken by North Korea since the Korean War armistice, most recent of which is North Korea’s attempt to capture an American spy plane. In the morning of March 1, 2003, an American RC132S spy plane, Cobra Ball, took off from a US airbase in Okinawa, and cruised along the East coast of North Korea collecting electronic signals. The US intelligence suspected that North Korea was about to test a longrange missile and the plane was there to monitor the suspected missile launch. When the US plane reached a point about 193 km from the coast of North Korea, two MiG-29 and two MiG-21 fighter planes showed up unexpectedly. The North Korean planes approached within 16 m and signaled the US plane to follow them. The US pilot refused to follow the command and left the scene posthaste. The US plane was tailed by the hostiles for about 22 min but let the US spy plane go. There are two key points to be observed here. North Korean Invasion Traveling Downwards to South Korea. First, the hostile planes waited for the US plane at the Uhrang airbase, located about 200 km from the point of air encounter. They knew that the US plane was coming. The North Korean planes flew 200 km to intercept the US plane. Did the US plane see them coming? If it did, why no evasive action? After intercepting the US plane, the hostile planes dogged it for 22 min. Why no American planes for the rescue? The US crew must have informed the base of the danger they were in, but no action was taken by the base. If Kim Jong Il had given the command, the MiGs would have shot down the US plane and returned to their base before the US could have scrambled war planes. Second, North Korea intercepted an American spy plane flying 200 km from its coast. According to the international norm, a nation’s territorial air space extends 19 km from its coast line. The US is the exception and claims air space of 370 km from its coast line; any foreign airplane violating this extended air space is challenged or shot down by the US military. 2. North Korea’s Massive Retaliation Strategy North Korea’s war plan in case of an US attack is total war, not the ‘lowintensity limited warfare’ or ‘regional conflict’ talked about among the Western analysts. North Korea will mount a total war if attacked by the US. There are three aspects to this

war plan. First, total war is North Korea’s avowed strategy in case of US preemptive attacks. The US war on Iraq shows that the US can and will mount preemptive strikes in clear violation of international laws, and the United Nations is powerless to stop the US. Any nation that is weak militarily may be attacked by the US at will. It is reasonable for North Korea to deter US attacks with threats of total war. Second, North Korea expects no help from China, Russia, or other nations in case of war with the US. It knows that it will be fighting the superpower alone. Nominally, China and Russia are North Korea’s allies but neither ally is expected to provide any assistance to North Korea in case of war. Neither nation can or is willing to protect North Korea from attacks by the US, and North Korea alone can and will protect itself from US attacks. This principle of self-defense applies to all nations. Third, North Korea’s total war plan has two components: massive conventional warfare and weapons of mass destruction. If the US mounts a preemptive strike on North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear plants, North Korea will retaliate with weapons of mass destruction: North Korea will mount strategic nuclear attacks on the US targets. The US war planners know this and have drawn up their own nuclear war plan. In a nuclear exchange, there is no front or rear areas, no defensive positions or attack formations as in conventional warfare. Nuclear weapons are offensive weapons and there is no defense against nuclear attacks except retaliatory nuclear attacks. For this reason, North Korea’s war plan is offensive in nature: North Korea’s war plan goes beyond repulsing US attackers and calls for destruction of the United States. The US war plan ’5027 calls for military occupation of North Korea; it goes beyond the elimination of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction. The US military regards North Korea its main enemy and likewise North Korea regards the US its main enemy. South Korea, too, regards North Korea its main enemy but North Korea does not regard South Korea its main enemy because South Korea is a client state of the United States and has no ability or power to act independent of the US. North Korea’s war plan is not for invading South Korea but for destroying the US. 3. North Korea’s Military Capability All nations keep their military capability secret. North Korea is no exception and it is not easy to assess North Korea’s military power. The US claims that it knows North Korea’s military secrets. The United States collects intelligence on North Korea using a variety of means: American U-2, RC-135, EP-3 and other high-altitude spy planes watch over North Korea 24 hours 7 days a

week. The US 5th Air Reconnaissance Squadron has U-2R, U-2S, and other advanced spy planes at the Ohsan airbase in South Korea. In addition, the US has 70 KH-11 spy satellites hovering over North Korea. In spite of such a massive deployment of intelligence collection assets, the US intelligence on North Korea is faulty at best. Donald Gregg, a former US ambassador to Seoul and a 30-year CIA veteran, has admitted that the US intelligence on North Korea has been the longest lasting story of failure in the annals of US intelligence. Gregg said that even the best spy gadget in the US arsenal cannot read what’s on Kim Jong Il’s mind. US Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld said that North Korea uses underground optical fibers for military communication and that it is nearly impossible to plant human agents in North Korea. Although North Korea’s military secrets are impervious to US spy operations, one can draw some general pictures from information available in the public domain. a) North Korea makes its own weapons North Korea has annual production capacity for 200,000 AK automatic guns, 3,000 heavy guns, 200 battle tanks, 400 armored cars and amphibious crafts. North Korea makes its own submarines, landing drafts, high-speed missile-boats, and other types of warships. Home-made weaponry makes it possible for North Korea to maintain a large military force on a shoestring budget. North Korea defense industry is made of three groups: weapon production, production of military supplies, and military-civilian dual-use product manufacturing. North Korea has 17 plants for guns and artillery, 35 plants for ammunition, 5 plants for tanks and armored cars, 8 plants for airplanes, 5 plants for warships, 3 plants for guided missiles, 5 plants for communication equipment, and 8 plants for biochemical warheads – 134 plants in total. In addition, many plants that make consumer products are designed so that they can be made to produce military items with minimum modification. About 180 of defense related plants are built underground in the rugged mountainous areas of Jagang-do. Several small to medium hydropower plants serve these plants so that it would be nearly impossible for the US to cut off power to the plants. b) North Korea has its own war plans North Korea is mountainous and its coasts are long and jagged. The Korean peninsula is narrow on its waste. North Korea’s weapons and war tactics are germane to Korea’s unique geography. North Korea has developed its own war plans unique to fighting the US in a unique way. North Korea’s military is organized into several independent, totally integrated and self-sufficient fighting

units, that are ready for action at any time. c) North Korean soldiers are well indoctrinated The US commanders admit that North Korean soldiers are highly motivated and loyal to Kim Jong Il, and that they will fight well in case of war. Karl von Clausewitz said that people’s support for war, military commanders’ ability and power, and the political leadership are the three essentials for winning war. He failed to include the political indoctrination of the soldiers, which is perhaps more important than the other factors cited. During the Iraq War just ended, the main cause of Iraq’s defeat was the low moral of its soldiers. Iraqi soldiers had no will to stand and fight, and they ran away or surrendered without fight. Iraqi soldiers believed in Allah protecting them and became easy preys to the US military. North Korean soldiers are taught to fight to the bitter end. In September 1996, a North Korean submarine got stranded at Kangrung, South Korea, and its crew abandoned the ship. Eleven of the crew committed suicide and the rest fought to the last man except one who was captured. In June 1998, another submarine got caught in fishing nets at Sokcho and its crew killed themselves. Such is the fighting spirit of North Korean soldiers. d) North Koreans are combat ready One cannot fight war without military preparedness. North Korea’s regular army is for offensive actions whereas its militias are homeland defense. North Korea’s regular army consists of 4 corps in the front area, 8 corps in the rear area, one tank corps, 5 armored corps, 2 artillery corps, and 1 corps for the defense of Pyongyang, South Korea has 19 infantry divisions whereas North Korea has 80 divisions and brigades. A North Korean infantry division has 3 infantry regiments, 1 artillery regiment (3 battalions of 122 mm rocket launchers and 1 battalion of 152 mortars), one tank battalion of 31 tanks, one anti-tank battalion, one anti-aircraft battalion, one engineer battalion, one communication battalion, one light-infantry battalion, one recon battalion, and one chemical warfare battalion. North Korea’s militias consist of 1.6 million self-defense units, 100,000 people’s guards, 3.9 million workers militia, 900,000 youth guard units. These militias are tasked to defend the homeland. The militias are fully armed and undergo military trainings regularly. i) Artillery North Korea has 2 artillery corps and 30 artillery brigades equipped with 120mm self-propelled guns, 152mm self-propelled mortars, 170mm guns with a range of 50 km, 240 mm multiple rocket launchers with a range of 45 km, and other heavy KOREA page 4



Understanding the roots of the 1970’s Terrorism by Bruce Eures (Tommorrow's Headlines, Today » International Relations) Submitted at 7/1/2011 1:03:05 AM

Living with Terrorism: Tactics of Avoidance Original article written by Bruce Eures Published for academia 1983, Louisiana Technical University [Just after the Marine Barracks bombing in Lebanon] A definition of terrorism in political terms could be: The use of force or violence in order to target a person or property for gain towards a political goal. To be effective, target must have the potential to affect change. Insight on how to avoid being a target could lessen or eliminate the impact of terrorism as a tool for political gain. Since minimizing terrorism is a large subject, just the basic questions will be touched upon. Questions like: what makes someone or something to target for terrorism? What basic attitudes of the terrorist should one know? How can someone prepare for the terrorist? Simple questions with no simple answers. What makes someone a possible target of terrorism? The same question could be posed of heart attacks. What makes someone a possible heart attack victim? Same techniques of threat analysis can be used for both 1. Studies of terrorist campaigns reveal identifiable patterns. These patterns but certain groups of people at higher risk than others. Terrorism has been and will continue to be a tactic against the weak. The terrorist can’t afford to fail. He sees himself as a representative of a constituency and must maintain a positive image. Failure would mean a loss of credibility. A potential target usually poses a risk. The terrorist will have to assess his chances of success against the chances of failure. So then, he will look for what defensive measures exist. This can be called risk assessment. 2 if the terrorist determines that the security is relatively high abort the attempt to bring harm and destruction to target. However, if security is skin deep, terrorist success in such an environment that the government has labeled as secure can be more devastating than if no such assurances exist. Simply stated, deterrence is the best prevention of terrorism. Another component is the terrorist ability to deal with the possible complications of existing security systems. This includes training, organization, and expertise of operation. During the 1970s, Palestinian training and its outgrowths provided what might be the glue holding together many of the eras terrorist elements. It is in these schools that they learned their basic skills such as security, philosophy, and clandestine tradecraft. Some

notable groups that have studied under Palestinian training by the Irish Republican Army, the BaaderMeinhof Gang, Turkish and Iranian terrorists, members of the Dutch Red the Help (Rode Hulp), and the people still credit Republic of South Yemen. 3 A typical recruit is 22 to 25 years old, college trained, middle class to upper class, and anarchist/Marxist ideology. Education can vary from non-technical degrees in humanities such as in the IRA, too technical engineers and nuclear scientist as with the Turkish and Iranian terrorists. 4 The pattern is virtually the same for all groups, where common training and typical cross-section lends itself to a close binding. Shared experience implies similar techniques of terrorism or ‘modus operandi’. One group’s failure could mean another’s success. The bottom line is not to underestimate the terrorist capability when determining measures for adequate security. Back to the question of what makes someone or something possible target for terrorism? Lack of security for a potential target is one reason. Underestimating the terrorist is another. But security for whom? For what? The target still needs to be pinned down. Security could be defined in technical terms as the protection of persons or interests against which a threat is posed by a clandestine group. Government, policy or law, a foreign power, and upper-class representing imperialism, colonialism, or Zionism, in the terrorist mind, is a target to put at risk. Public figures associate with such institutions or enterprises connect with these ideas are at risk. Individuals with highly technical skills, for instance the information posts are at risk. Security risk can also become diffuse by broadening the target. For example, innocent groups of people can be bombed in order for government to consider a change in a policy. Diffuse targets can exist not only as groups of indiscriminate people, but as important resources such as electricity, food and water, monetary systems and mineral resources can all become targets of terrorism. Some major undertaking since 1968 have been over 300 hijackings, about 170 successful. More than 50 major political kidnappings have occurred. Robberies to fund activities, extortion and political blackmail our favorites and help to bring in much-needed funds to underwrite their operations. 6 Basically, anything to make it impossible for the government to govern. According to a leading revolutionary in Brazil, Carlos Marigehela: Make it unbearable for the ordinary people and hope that they will

become embittered and exasperated with the government and will clamor for change. 7 Palestinian terrorists conducted their first hijacking in 1968 when P.F.L.F. members boarded in LOL Boeing 707 at Rome airport and port of the land in Algiers. 8 Successive attacks were made on a number of Israeli Airlines. Subsequently, they began pacing armed sky marshals aboard the flights. Stepped-up security proves its value in 1970 when Leyla Khaled and Patrick Arguello, members of the P.F.L.P tried to hijack an AL El airline out of Amsterdam. They were overpowered. Arguello, was killed Khaled was captured when her grenade failed to explode. Later, a series of hijackings attempted to win release of Leyla Khaled, who was being held in Earing, England. The TWA 707 and Swissair DC were forced out of Dawson field, and old RAF runway. A simultaneous hijacking also took place on a British VC-10, on the ground 40 miles north of Amman, Jordan forcing all of the passengers hostage for the release of Khaled. In another incident, Palestinian terrorists sought recognition from King Hussein of Jordan. His attacks on the contested Palestinian strongholds in his country were either wiped out forced the guerrillas to withdraw into Syria or Lebanon. The Black September group, led by Yasser Arafat, massacred 11 Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympic Games. Kidnapping of public figures for ransom or political propaganda is also common. 9 in 1958, Castro supporters kidnapped racing car driver Juan Fangio. A Guatemalan terrorist nabbed West German diplomat in 1970. When the government refused to concede to their demands, the Count von Spreti was murdered. Funds through ransom money are usually where the big returns are found. Wadi Hadad, a South Yemen terrorist, forced Lufthansa airlines to pay $5 million into his P.F.L.P account. In the summer of 1977, the Japanese Red Army hijacked a JAL Airlines aircraft leaving Bombay. Diverting it to Algiers, they demanded the release of six terrorists and $6 million. These were to be some the last big money operations of 70s. Less publicized, but highly favored, our banks as targets of terrorism. The Algerian FLN, the IRA, BaaderMeinhof gang and others have been known to hold up a bank or two. 10 Although bank robberies don’t produce a lot of money, is usually enough to keep a small time terrorist operations afloat. Six robberies claimed by groups in Tukwila, Washington produce only about $4000 each. Early raids by the Baader -Meinhof gang but in about 8000 deutsche marks, a few thousand

dollars. But with practice, they pulled up six highest totaling hundred $185,000. This smalltime crime did the terrorist satisfaction striking out against the capitalist system. These are but brief examples of the terrorist targets. The tactics of subversion and science of mass killing great progress with practice and technology. Handheld rockets for bringing down aircraft, chemicals for poisoning resources like food, water, air and the possibilities of nuclear terrorism. What next? An examination of the person who engages in terrorism isn’t where to extrapolate his behavior. Terrorist motivation To be a successful terrorist a university degree is the almost mandatory 11 A brief analysis of the terrorist motivation will perceive the world through his eyes in an effort to out think him. The modern terrorist has the special motivation of fighting for a political cause. Without a political cause he would be nothing more than a common criminal seeking personal gain. They can be grouped, territorially, into three categories based on the amount of influence they wish to spread over a certain area. The first group works towards world revolution. They try to impose their ideology on one and all, and those who get in the way are eliminated. The Symbionese Liberation Army could have been classified into this group until they reveal themselves as criminals hating the rich. 12 Certainly, more fall into the second group. Those who oppose their own government, and wish to implement their own extreme political philosophy in their native country. Examples of this include the BaaderMeinhof gang in West Germany, and the Red Brigade in Italy. The third category can be described as liberation movements. Certain countries or groups of people struggling to free themselves from the unwelcome in one unwanted governments. The terrorist site is usually weak, and the ruling cited is militarily strong, such as the lands Israel not part buys by military force. We are deeply entrenched with the Palestinians came either homeland. Another motivation for terrorist is a veteran of both groups over points of doctrine. These usually end up as coup d’états. In 1952, Algeria was at war with the French. Frantz Fanon, a black doctor, gave a supporter of the Algerian national front. Though not a violent man, Frantz wrote, Violence alone, violence committed by the people and educated by its leaders, make it possible for the masses to understand social truths, in his book titled “The Wretched of the Earth”. The violent teachings of Fanon set the pattern of thought among leftward leaning UNDERSTANDING page 5



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guns. North Korea has about 18,000 heavy guns. North Korea’s 170mm Goksan gun and 240mm multipletube rocket launchers are the most powerful guns of the world. These guns can lob shells as far south as Suwon miles beyond Seoul. The big guns are hidden in caves. Many of them are mounted on rails and can fire in all directions. They can rain 500,000 conventional and biochemical shells per hour on US troops near the DMZ. The US army bases at Yijong-bu, Paju, Yon-chun, Munsan, Ding-gu-chun, and Pochun will be obliterated in a matter of hours. The US army in Korea is equipped with Paladin anti-artillery guns that can trace enemy shells back to the guns and fire shells at the enemy guns with pin-point accuracy. However, it takes for the Paladins about 10 min to locate the enemy guns, during which time the Paladins would be targeted by the enemy guns Gen. Thomas A Schwartz, a former US army commander in Korea, stated that the US army in Korea would be destroyed in less than three hours. ii). Blitz Klieg North Korea has tanks, armored cars, and self-propelled artillery for blitz klieg. North Korea has one tank corps and 15 tank brigades. The tank corps has 5 tank regiments, each of which has 4 heavy tank battalions, 1 lighttank battalion, one mechanized infantry battalion, 2 self-propelled artillery battalions. US tanks are designed to operate in open fields. In 1941, Rommel of Germany defeated British troops in North Africa with tanks. The largest tank battle was fought at Kursk in 1943, in which the Soviets defeated Germans. In 1973, Egypt defeated Israeli tanks with anti-tank missiles. All of these tank battles were fought in open fields. The Gulf War and the recent war in Iraq saw US tanks in open fields. American and Western tank commanders do not know how to fight tank battles in rugged terrains like those of Korea. Tank battles in Korea will be fought on hilly terrains without any close air cover, because North Korean fighters will engage US planes in close dog fights. North Korea has developed tanks ideally suited for the many rivers and mountains of Korea. These tanks are called “Chun-ma-ho”, which can navigate steep slopes and cross rivers as much as 5.5 m deep. North Korea’s main battle tanks – T-62s – have 155 mm guns and can travel as fast as 60 km per hour. The US main tanks – M1A – have 120 mm guns and cannot travel faster than 55 km per hour. North Korean tanks have skins 700 mm thick and TOW-II is the only anti-tank missile in the US arsenal that can penetrate this armored skin. North Korea began to make anti-tank missiles in 1975 and has been improving its anti-tank missiles for the past 30 years. North Korea’s anti-

tank missiles are rated the best in the world and several foreign nations buy them. The US army in Korea relies on 72 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters to kill North Korean tanks. Each Apache has 16 Hell-Fire anti-tank missiles. As shown in the recent Iraq war, Apaches are fragile and can be easily shot down even with rifles. North Korea has about 15,000 shoulder-fired anti-air missiles (“wha -sung”) and Apaches will be easy targets for wha-sung missiles. On December 17, 1994, a wha-sung missile brought down an American OH-58C spy helicopter which strayed north of the DMZ. North Korea has 4 mechanized corps and 24 mechanized brigades. Each brigade has 1 tank battalion (31 tanks), 1 armored battalion (46 armored cars), 4 infantry battalions, one 122mm battalion (18 guns), one 152 mm battalion (18 guns), one antiaircraft battalion (18 guns), anti-tank battalion (9 armored cars with antitank missiles and 12 anti-tank guns), one armored recon company (3 light armored cars, 7 armored cars, and 8 motor-cycles), one mortar company (6 mortars), one engineer company, one chemical company, and one communication company. The US army has A-10 attack planes to counter North Korea’s mechanized units. In case of war, the skies over Korea will be filled with fighters in close dog-fights and the A-10s would be ineffective. The bulk of North Korea’s mechanized and tank units are positioned to cross the DMZ at a moment’s notice and run over the US and South Korean defenders. The attackers will be aided by SU-25 attack planes and attack helicopters. In addition, North Korea has 600 high -speed landing crafts, 140 hovercrafts, and 3,000 K-60 and other pontoon bridges for river-crossing. North Korea has 700,000 troops, 8,000 heavy guns, and 2,000 tanks placed in more than 4,000 hardened bunkers within 150 km of the DMZ. iii. Underground Tunnel Warfare North Korea is the world mosttunneled nation. North Korea’s expertise in digging tunnels for warfare was demonstrated during the Vietnam War. North Korea sent about 100 tunnel warfare experts to Vietnam to help dig the 250 km tunnels for the North Vietnamese and Viet Gong troops in South Vietnam. The tunnels were instrumental in the Vietnamese victory. North Korea’s army runs on company-size units. Tunnel warfare is conducted by independent company-size units. Tunnel entrances are built to withstand US chemical and biological attacks. Tunnels run zig-zag and have seals, airpurification units, and safe places for the troops to rest. It is believed that North Korea has built about 20 large tunnels near the DMZ. A large tunnel can transport 15,000 troops per hour across the DMZ and place them

behind the US troops. iv. Special Forces North Korea has the largest special forces, 120,000 troops, in the world. These troops are grouped into light infantry brigades, attack brigades, airborne brigades, and sea-born brigades – 25 brigades in total. These troops will be tasked to attack US military installations in Korea, Japan, Okinawa and Guam. North Korea has the capacity to transport 20,000 special force troops at the same time. North Korea has 130 high-speed landing crafts and 140 hovercrafts. A North Korean hovercraft can carry one platoon of troops at 90 km per hour. Western experts pooh-pooh North Korea’s ancient AN-2 transport planes as 1948 relics, but AN-2 planes can fly low beneath US radars and deliver up to 10 troops at 160 km per hour. North Korea makes AN-2s and has about 300 in place. In addition, North Korea has hang-gliders that can carry 5-20 men each for short hops. North Korea has developed special bikes for mountain warfare. Special forces use these bikes for fast deployments on mountains. Switzerland is the only other nation that has bike-mounted special forces trained for mountain warfare. The rugged terrains of the Korean Peninsula are ideally suited for special forces operations. North Korea’s special forces will attack US targets in Japan, Okinawa, and Guam as well. Japan’s self defense units are being reorganized to counter this threat. How good are North Korea’s special forces? In September 1996, a North Korean submarine was stranded near Kang-nung and the crew were forced to abandon the ship and land on South Korea. The sub had two special forces agents who had finished a mission in South Korea and were picked up by the sub before the sub ran into a rock. The two men fought off an army of South Korean troops and remained at large for 50 days, during which they killed 11 of the pursuers. 4. Weapons of Mass Destruction a. Missile Readiness North Korea is a nuclear state along with the US, Russia, China, the Great Britain, France, India, Pakistan, and Israel. North Korea has succeeded in weaponizing nuclear devices for missile delivery. North Korea has operational fleets of ICBM and intermediate-range missiles equipped with nuclear warheads. I have written on this subject previously and will not replicate the details here. It was May of 1994, nine years ago, when the US military planners had first realized that North Korea had the bomb and devised nuclear attack plans under William Perry, the then US Secretary of Defense. Perry had estimated that North Korea would have about 100 nuclear warheads by 2000. Dr. Kim Myong Chul, an expert on Kim Jong Il’s war plans,

has recently confirmed that North Korea has more than 100 nukes including hydrogen bombs. North Korea can produce about 100 missiles a year. It began to make missiles in 1980 and has about 1,000 missiles of various types in place, about 100 of which have nuclear warheads. These missiles are hidden in caves and underground launching pads. At present, the US has no foolproof defense against North Korean missiles, and in case of war, North Korean missiles can do serious damages: several hundreds of thousands of US troops will die, and scores of US bases and carrier battle groups will be destroyed. The Patriot anti-missile missiles are deployed in South Korea but as shown in the recent Iraq war, the Patriots are not 100% accurate or reliable even under ideal conditions. b. Biochemical Warfare North Korea has a large stockpile of biochemical weapons. Each Army corps has a chemical company and each regiment has a chemical platoon. In the May 1994 nuclear crisis, Perry warned North Korea that the US would retaliate with nuclear weapons if North Korea used chemical weapons on US troops. North Korean troops and citizens are well-prepared for bio-chemical attacks. 5. North Korea’s Defense Against US Attacks a. Fortification North Korea began to build fortifications in 1960s. All key military facilities are built underground to withstand American bunker-buster bombs. North Korea has 8,236 underground facilities that are linked by 547 km of tunnels. Beneath Pyongyang are a huge underground stadium and other facilities. About 1.2 million tons of food, 1.46 million tons of fuel, and 1.67 million tons of ammunition are stored in underground storage areas for wartime use. Most of the underground facilities are drilled into granite rocks and the entrances face north in order to avoid direct hits by American bombs and missiles. The B-61 Mod 11 is the main bunker buster in the US arsenal. A recent test showed that this buster could penetrate only 6 meters of rock. The latest GBU-28 laser-guided bunker-buster can penetrate to 30m. North Korean bunkers have at least 80 m of top-cover of solid rocks. North Korea has many false caves that emit heats that will misdirect unwary GBU-28/37 and BKU-113 bunker-busters. The US military targets enemy command and control centers based on the doctrine of chopping off “the head of the snake.” With the top commanders eliminated, the rank and file would be demoralized, leaderless and would surrender. North Korea’s extensive underground fortification KOREA page 7



UNDERSTANDING continued from page 3

intellectuals in the West. While Fanon was the pioneer in the literature of subversion, the founder of modern terrorism was Carlos Marigehela. Running a revolutionary movement in Brazil, he practiced what he preached. His handbook of urban guerrilla warfare, in “For the Liberation of Brazil” became the operations manual for the modern terrorist group. After it’s publishing in Germany, a German terrorist said of it, “you find it quite concrete instructions: the urban guerrilla must be fit, must read this and that, and must do this and that”. 13 Bank robbery and kidnapping were a few of the actions advocated by his writings. Interestingly, Marigehela’s theories were derived from Chairman Mao Tse-tung’s instructions to the Communist on how to take over China from the nationalists. 14 Others like Che Guevara, in Bolivia, who wrote “ Guerrilla Warfare”, and Regis Debray, French intellectual and loss, who wrote“Strategy for Revolution” work to inspire followers who overtook the airport at Entebbe and the coup d’état in Chile respectively. These writings represent the basic motivations of modern terrorist, and fuel the fire of their hatred of capitalist society. It is important to understand the terrorist philosophy to understand his intentions to understand their intentions. Dealing with them on intelligent level may lead to satisfactory solutions other than violence, then it would no longer be terrorism, but rather politics. But until such compromises arise, the world must still deal with the violent terrorist. Once the cause is established, the terrorist must become active in the service. Even to the point of death. You must become a Fedayeen, a man of sacrifice. Being a terrorist is not a part-time endeavor. Some terrorists get a, kamikaze fever and have intentions of dying inglorious death for the revolutionary cause. The typical red Japanese army terrorist has a nasty habit of exploding bombs aboard aircraft that they happen to be on at the time. Of course, not all terrorists are so fanatical. About 80% of all terrorist acts involved throwing bombs, launching rockets, setting booby-traps or igniting explosives by remote control or timing devices. These incidents cause fear and panic in the victims and innocent bystanders, while affording maximum protection for terrorists. 15 The terrorist must also have the killer instinct. That is, to be devoid of human emotions, pity and remorse. Must be able to kill on signal, anytime, anyplace, anyone, in cold blood. He must be also be fairly intelligent processes target, plan a strategy, and stay ahead of security forces, rival groups and hostile intelligence services. He must also have sophistication and poise, to travel first

class, stay first-class hotels, and mix with international executives and government officials in not seem out of place. If you become suspicious, he is automatically suspect. The terrorist must be well educated. He must possess a fair amount of general knowledge; speak English [an almost universal international language] and one other major language. Must be a good communicator to get his views across, and understand what others are saying on complex issues. Not all terrorists have such high standards, but the leaders, planners, couriers/ liaison and officers, activists must if they expect to operate successfully. In short, there is no place for the mindless thug. There is of course a place in terrorism for the less educated, less urbane, but it is a minor one. Usually, [the terrorist] possesses a skill that is needed by the terrorist group. Safe cracking, explosives, and electronics are few examples of desirable skills. But give organization that recruits a number of undisciplined, and unruly members is soon decimated by security forces, eliminated by a rival groups, or disintegrated by internal rivalry. All terrorists share a common heritage: They all come under the influence of those political thinkers who preach that violence is essential to make a world better place ‘for the masses’. The criminals and psychopaths use the philosophers to provide them with the glib rationalization for the actions, while the idealist are deluded by their gurus into thinking that violence is the only true road to salvation. 16 The anti-colonialist wars ended in 1950s and 1960s, but the concept of Third World composed of the poor and miserable within the countries evolved. The writings of these philosophers acted like a magnets for young people in the Western world. They identified with the struggles of Third World people against poverty and the less fortunate in the country. Growing sentiment rose among young intellectuals that the rich countries should feel guilty about the past colonialist exploitation, and pay the massive aid programs. It was in this atmosphere of revulsion of luxuries brought about by capitalism, that the philosophers begin writing about the theories and practices of terrorism’s guerrilla warfare. 17 Fidel Castro’s prime into but impressed everyone. It proved that a small band of guerrillas overthrew a dictatorial government. He became a hero in universities across Europe and the Americas. They devour the new literature of subversion. 18 Preparing for the Terrorist A look at terrorist targeting, and motivation provides tips for deterrence and countermeasures. The first tip is to be knowledgeable about country’s political climate. That is, the issues that concern the population of that country. Second, is whether or not there is an active or passive

opposition, a sample of their tactics and a success rate. Third, is an assessment of the local police action that can be reasonably expected against terrorist aggression in order to assess one’s own security needs. These are three important factors for deterrence because forewarned is for armed. An effective information system is invaluable for the individual or organization to the extent that repetition is deterable. The sources of information are important in the final analysis in preventing improper actions based on misinformation allowing viable assets become vulnerable. Information exchanges are on a need to know basis and should be arranged among those who have a common interest. Also, constant passage of information between public and private sectors, at the appropriate levels, with ensure that the best quality information is available. Information should be verified when possible and should be processed into a useful form in which the organizations can base decisions. In information security system should be developed so that secrets cannot be filled by those with the terrorist cause. Because ultimately, it is what is known time which can be frustrated or avoided. 19 Timely information means proper protection and deterrence. Since the field of protection is wide open, only the individual security measures and basic organizational protection will be discussed. Protection from terrorists who kill indiscriminately is much too broad a scope for this report and will not be dealt with as well. Most foreign travelers, government officials or businessman not afforded the protection of 40 armed guards and round-the-clock security as our investors were senior executives. They must rely on public security. But this does not mean that there are not measures individual can do to protect themselves. Living overseas means being attuned to possible threats. One obvious tactic is to keep a low profile. Don’t engage in any controversial activities, such as, political rallies, extracurricular social affairs that may lead to bad publicity etc. Avoid the routine; very journeys, times, habits. Being unpredictable stymies kidnappings, bombings and assassinations. Be aware that the family is also a target for terrorism. Abduction of wives and children is a wellestablished form of blackmail. Wives and support ostentation, avoid easily recognizable cars and she missed user friends carefully. Young children should be kept it close friends houses when the parents are out. The adults might be advised not to enroll in the universities if the political climate warrants it. At the lowest level, the family might be used as a source of information about the parent’s whereabouts, movements and habits. In extreme circumstances, the

antiterrorist training courses can be attended. Courses such as hand-tohand fighting, weapons training and vehicle division tactics are examples. The possibility of the threat would be the determining factor. Aside from the threat against the individual person, there is the threat to property in which the individual lives. Public buildings are much easier to protect than private residences. But even the private residence can be made into a fortress, depending on the security needs. Today security firms are willing to survey the home, habits and movement of the family, so that they might advise on use of security guards dogs, or the use of special security hardware. Don’t be fooled, these things cost money and the addition of anything must be weighed against security needs. Fixed barriers, box lights easily explanation. They come in a variety of forms. Alarm systems adjust as varied and can be triggered by a multitude of sensors. A few examples systems used can be from the triggering our movement, vibration and heat. Consideration should also be given to an escape route by the person’s in-house, while at the same time preventing unauthorized entry. More sophisticated equipment is also available, but only at a cost the company could afford. Electromagnetic interrogators can be used to check fingerprints, ID cards, or eye pattern recognition systems to gain access. Only a correct match will release the lock. But of course, there is no substitute for personal recognition. Ultrasonic motion detectors are designed to detect body movement in the subject area. Ultrasonic transceivers transmit and receive sine waves of the pitch of the ear. The radiation patterns or oblong, about 30 x 20 and with careful placement they can be reflected into concealed corners as well. 20 Less effective are the Doppler effect detectors which are activated by continuous motion. They can be used in conjunction with ultrasonic devices as triggering mechanisms in order to save power. Radar and microwave systems work in the same way as, except they are useful greater distances. Several million cubic feet of space warehouse could be secured. Distant dates for the area along fences could be areas of security as well. Photoelectric detectors, similar to the ones found in automatic doors, can be used to detect passage through door or hallway. Vibration for seismic detectors can alert to hammering, drilling, digging, crawling, blasting and tunneling. In spite of such hardware, there is no match for the human being with eyes and ears and brain. Such manifestations of security hardware project the conscientious and UNDERSTANDING page 9



China’s once weak forces are becoming a leading-edge naval power. by Bruce Eures (Tommorrow's Headlines, Today » International Relations) Submitted at 7/2/2009 1:55:54 PM

A Chinese trawler tries to snag a towed array cable from the USNS Impeccable (T-AGOS-23) 700 miles south of China’s Hainan submarine base. A People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) frigate and six civilian vessels based in Yulin interfered with two U.S. oceanographic research ships over several days in international waters south of Hainan Island, site of a Chinese fleet buildup. Hainan Is the Tip of the Chinese Navy Spear By James C. Bussert June 2009 From humble, almost inconsequential, origins, China’s South Sea Fleet has grown to become a major maritime military force. The country is basing many of its newest naval assets in that fleet’s region of responsibility, and they are taking on more diverse and far-reaching missions. China also is acting more aggressively in these waters, particularly in recent confrontations with U.S. ships conducting peaceful operations. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) South Sea Fleet traditionally was the smallest and lowest priority of its three fleets. In 1980 China wanted a warship to show the flag and establish Chinese rights in contested South China Sea islands. Instead of turning to South Sea Fleet assets, China tapped the North Sea Fleet flagship, Luda DD-110, to perform a long, arduous three-month cruise. This demonstrated the lack of readiness and training in South Sea Fleet warships during that period. However, recent events have shown that the axis of China’s most capable warships has shifted to the South Sea Fleet. Several political and military reasons may be behind this shift. One of the major military reasons is the construction of the first PLAN aircraft carrier, which is occurring in 2009. Two pressing issues are where best to home-port the carrier and the battle group escorts that are required. Another new naval mission is to protect the vital oil imports sea lines of communication (SLOC), primarily from the Middle East through the Indian Ocean. Prior important southern missions remain, such as South China Sea (SCS) island possessions and untapped energy sources there, which are contested by other Asian nations. Chinese marines always have been based mainly on Hainan. All of these new and legacy naval missions point to expansion of base support on Hainan Island as a forward base and jumping-off point.

The East Sea Fleet Headquarters is in Ningbo, and the main ship class based in this fleet are the numerous frigates that are mainly home-ported in Dinghai on Zhoushan Island, which is between Shanghai and Ningbo. When Sovremenny guided missile destroyers (DDGs) and modern 051 and 052 DDGs became operational, they all were located at an isolated Russian support site at Zhoushan near Ningbo and at Xiangshan. Until about 2004, all of the most modern and capable PLAN warships and all four Type 052 Luyangs, the powerful imported Sovremmenys, were based in the East Sea Fleet. Han nuclear submarines (SSNs) and the Xia nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) always were based in the North Fleet. The two Russian 877 EKM Kilo diesel submarines and 10 modern 636 Kilos with the potent Club-S antisubmarine warfare (ASW) rockets all were based at Xiangshan with a Russian technical support group. Nearly all frigates and Sovremmenys are based at Dinghai on Zhoushan Island with hardened caverns. These ships include the modern 054 and more advanced 054A frigates with vertical launch systems (VLS), sonars, radars, guns and datalinks previously found only on DDGs ( SIGNAL Magazine, May 2007). Over the last few decades, one apparent PLAN weakness was having the newest and most capable warships limited to being based in special support cocoons for frigates, SSNs, Kilo submarines and new DDGs. However, since 2006, four Luyang Is and IIs as well as modern frigates and submarines have been forward deployed in the South Sea Fleet. China built a 1,200-foot runway on Woody Island in 1990 that has been extended to 8,000 feet, which makes it capable of landing H-6 bombers. Farther south in 1988-89, two dozen PLAN warships conducted exercises in the contested Nansha (Spratly) Islands, while China took over many reefs. China occupied Fiery Cross Island in 1998 deep in Philippine waters without a fight along with the appropriately named Mischief Reef. All South China Sea exercises and seizures used South Sea Fleet destroyers, frigates and support vessels. Borrowing units from other fleets for vital missions no longer was necessary. The South Sea Fleet was self-sufficient after decades of being a smaller, second-rate fleet. During World War II, Japan established a submarine base at Yulin on the southern tip of Hainan Island, and it remained the only significant Hainan naval base. Yulin has had new piers and facilities added within the narrow access harbor. The grand plan of basing the largest warships needed for SLOC escort and carrier

battle group escorts requires large facilities open to the ocean. Three new large piers in Yolang port can provide support for the future Chinese aircraft carrier and its escorts in the coming years. The beautiful white Yolang Wan—wan is Chinese for “bay”—beaches with tourist hotels currently are the anchor site for the modern 052C Aegis-type DDGs with two large piers on the eastern end. Hardened underground facilities have been blasted out of rock for the first 094 Jin SSBN and first 093 Shang SSN in the Yolang area. One hardened site for the nuclear submarines is carved out south of Yolang, and hardened tunnels are at Yolangling—ling is Chinese for “hill”—on the coast northeast of Yolang. The basing of a valuable strategic asset such as the Jin in the open South China Sea gateway to Pacific and Indian oceans launch sites, along with the SLOC escort capabilities of the Shang SSN, are a total break from the Northern Qingdao area hibernation of the past. This stereotype was shattered in 2006 with the exodus of these complex platforms to the South Sea Fleet. In late 2005, the South Sea submarines consisted of the 039A Song SS 314-316, six modernized Ming II SS 305-310s, and older 033G and 035G diesel boats. In July 2006, the lead 091 SSN and a 636 Kilo diesel boat were in Yulin, and by May 2008 the lead 094 SSBN and Yuan diesel boat were added. The relocation of the newest PLAN SSNs, the latest 636 Kilo and Yuan class diesel boats, and the latest 094 SSBN is noteworthy. In addition to operations in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, these submarines can threaten the main U.S. base at Guam. The Han SSN had operated in Guam waters back in 1990. Acoustic surveillance by two sophisticated oceanographic research ships (AGORs) 700 miles south of Yulin shows the U.S. Navy concern on the newest nuclear submarines based there. This normally clandestine operation became headline news when five Chinese vessels harassed the USNS Impeccable T-AGOS 23 on March 8, 2009. What was not mentioned is that the USNS Victorious T-AGOS 19 was interfered with by a Chinese

Bureau of Fisheries vessel on March 4, and Impeccable had a PLAN frigate cut across her bow at close range on March 5. A Y-12 twin turboprop buzzed Impeccable a dozen times also that day. China claimed the USNS ships broke Chinese laws by operating within a 200-mile economic zone without permission. The 200mile exclusion zone is not recognized by international law. The PLAN Luyang I DDG 168 Guangzhou based at Hainan, participates in international naval exercises with Pakistan’s F184 frigate and the USS Theodore Roosevelt(CVN 71) in March. Chinese naval forces from Hainan base are taking part in a growing number of international exercises and operations. Of the eight modern DDGs built since 1990, five are stationed in the Yulin complex along with three of the five newest nuclear submarines. The movement of the newest and best surface warships to not only the South Sea Fleet at Zhanjiang but also the forward southern outpost of Yulin is a major relocation. Although some, such as the Luhai DDG 167 and replenishment ship AOR 885, were in Zhanjiang, most went to the unlikely remote base complex in southern Hainan Island. The 052C DDG 170 moved to Yulin in January 2006 followed by DDG 171. The later arrival of 052B DDGs 169 and 169 from Jiangnan Shipyard to Yulin in late 2006 may indicate design problems. The recent buildup of the most capable platforms at Yulin, and construction of its hardened tunnels several years ago, indicates long-term preparations for two destroyer divisions and submarines for extended battle group operations. The two 052C Aegis DDGs are the two most sophisticated Chinese-built warships, and they would be the two flagships each escorted by an 052B Luyang and frigates. The largest and most versatile AOR 885 replenishment vessel, the Russianbuilt 37,000-ton Nankang, has been stationed there since 1996. Later, the ship’s number and name were changed to 953 and Qinghai-Hu, but it remained the South Sea Fleet admiral flagship in Zhanjiang. The newest Chinese-built 22,000-ton Fuchi-class replenishment ships AO 886 and 887 were built in 2005 and stationed in the East and South Sea fleets respectively, where both have been very active on distant cruises with Luyangs. The First and the 165th marine brigades and their associated amphibious vessels always have been based in Hainan. The South China Sea seizures in the Paracel Islands CHINA’S page 10



KOREA continued from page 4

makes this strategy unworkable. In addition, the underground facilities make US spy planes and satellites impotent. b. Air Defense North Korea has a large number of ground-to-air missiles. It has SA-2 and SA-3 missiles against low-flying enemy planes, and SA-5 missiles for high-altitude planes. SA-5 missiles have an effective range of 250 km. SA-5 missiles can hit enemy planes flying over the middle of South Korea. North Korea has reengineered US shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles captured in Vietnam, and designed its own missile, wha-sung. North Korea began to manufacture wha-sung missiles in 1980. Wha-sung comes in two models: SA-7 that has an effective range of 5 km and SA-16 with 10 km range. North Korea has more than 15,000 wha-sung missiles in place. In addition to the missiles, North Korea has 12,000 anti-aircraft guns, including 37mm twin-barrel guns, 23 mm automatics, 57mm, 87mm, and 100mm heavy guns. These are mostly manually operated and thus not subject to electronic warfare. c. Coastal deferens. North Korea’s coastlines are long and jagged. Coastal guns are placed in fortified tunnels along the coastline. North Korea has six ground -to-ship missile bases. North Korea has anti-ship missiles of 95km range, and of 160km range. The latter are for hitting US carrier battle groups over the horizon. North Korean anti-ship missiles can hit ships anchored at Inchon on the west and Sokcho on the east. America’s main defense against antiship missiles, the Arleigh Burke class Aegis destroyers are ineffective outside 20-50 km from missile launch pads. d. Sea Battles North Korea has two fleets – the West Fleet and the East Fleet. The West Fleet has 6 squadrons of 320 ships and the East Fleet has 10 squadron of 460 ships. The navy has a total manpower of 46,000. North Korean ships are sheltered from US attacks in about 20 bunkers of 200900 m longs and 14-22 m wide. North Korean ships are small and agile, designed for coastal defense. North Korean ships carry 46km range shipto-ship missiles and 22-channel multiple rocket launchers. The main enemy of the North Korean navy will be US carrier task forces. The Russian navy has developed a tactic to deal with US carriers task forces: massive simultaneous missile attacks. In addition, Russia has developed the anti-carrier missile, “jun-gal”, that can destroy a carrier. China has developed similar tactics for destroying US carriers. On April 1, 2003, North Korea test-fired a highspeed ground-to-ship missile of 60km range. A US carrier task force of

Nimitz class has 6,000 men, 70 planes, and a price tag of 4.5 billion dollars. Destroying even a single career task force will be traumatic. A carrier is protected by a shield of 6 Aegis destroyers and nuclear attack submarines. An Aegis destroyer has an AN/SPY-1 high-capacity radar system that can track more than 100 targets at the same time. An Aegis can fire about 20 anti-missile missiles at the same time. Thus, a career force can track a total of 600 targets at a time and fire 120 anti-missile missiles at the same time. The anti-missile missiles have about 50% success under ideal conditions. In actual battle situations, the hit rate will be much lower and the best estimate is that the Aegis shield can intercept at most 55 incoming missiles. Therefore, a volley of about 60 missiles and rockets will penetrate the Aegis shield and hit the career. North Korea acquired OSA and KOMAR high-speed missile boats in 1968, and began to build its own missile boats in 1981. It has more than 50 missile boats, each equipped with 4 missiles of 46km range and multiple rocket launchers. In addition, North Korea has about 300 speed boats, 200 torpedo boats and 170 other gunboats. In case of war, North Korea’s small crafts and submarines will swarm around US career task forces and destroy them. North Korea has 35 submarines and 65 submersibles. These crafts are equipped with torpedoes and will be used to attack US careers. They will also lay mines and block enemy harbors. North Korea has a large supply of mines. North Korean submarines are small but they are equipped with 8km rocket launchers and 70km anti-ship missiles, and they could do some serious damage to US careers.. e. Air Combats North Korea has three air commands. Each command has a fighter regiment, a bomber regiment, an AN2 regiment, an attack helicopter regiment, a missile regiment, and a radar regiment. Each command can operate independently. North Korea has 70 airbases, which are fortified against US attacks. Underground hangars protect the planes and have multiple exits for the planes to take off on different runways. North Korea has several fake airfields and fake planes to confuse US attackers. It is said that North Korea’s planes are obsolete and no match for US planes. North Korea has 770 fighters, 80 bombers, 700 transports, 290 helicopters, and 84,000 men. In case of war, North Korean planes will fly low hugging the rugged terrains and attack enemy targets. US planes are parked above ground at bases in Korea, Japan, Okinawa and Guam, and make easy targets for missile, rocket and air attacks. When war breaks out, North Korean missiles, rockets and heavy guns will destroy the 8 US airbases in South Korea, and

any plane in the air would have no place to land. North Korea’s fighter planes are illequipped for air-to-air combats at long distances. but they can hold their own in close-quarter air combats. MiG-21 fighters from Bongchun and US F-15 from Ohsan would meet in less than 5 min, assuming they took off at about the same time. In about 5 min, hundreds of MiG21s and F-15s would be swirling in the skies over Korea. Ground-to-air missiles and air -to-air missiles would have hard time telling friends from foes. F-15Es are equipped with a radar system that lock on at 180 km for large objects and 90 km for small objects. Sidewinder missiles have an effective range of 16km, AMRAAM missiles of 50km, and Sparrow of 55km. Korea is 100 km wide and 125 km long, and so US air-to-air missiles would be of limited use and effectiveness, because North Korean MiGs would approach the US planes in close proximity and commingle with US planes, and air-to-air missiles will become useless and machines guns will have to be used. MiG19s have 30mm guns, MiG21s have 23mm guns, and F-14s have 20mm Valkans. North Korean pilots are trained to hug the enemy planes so that air-to-air missiles cannot be used. In contrast, US pilots are trained to lock on the enemy at long distance with radar and fire missiles. US planes are heavily armed with electronics and less agile than the light, lean MiGs that can climb and turn faster than the US planes. F-14s are about 3.3 times heavier than MiG21s, and F-150Es are about 3.6 times heavier. MiG21s are 16.6 m long whereas F-14s are 19.1 m and F15Es 19.43 m long. MiG21s cab climb to 18km, whereas F-1A can climb to 15.8 km and F-16 to 15.2 km. MiGs get upper hands in closerange dogfights in which agility matters. In Vietnam, US planes were forced to jettison auxiliary gas tanks and bombs in order to engage MiGs. F-150 E planes will carry BLU-113 bunker busters that weigh 2,250 kg each in the next war in Korea. Loaded with such a heavy bomb, F-15s will become easy targets for North Korea’s MiGs. US fighter-bombers will be protected by F-15C fighter escorts. MiG21s are North Korea’s main workhorse. The MiG21 debuted in 1965 in Vietnam and proved itself as an effective attack fighter. In 1999, North Korea bought 40 MiG21s from Kazakhstan. During the Vietnam War, MiG17s shot down dozens of American planes. North Korea sent more than 200 pilots to fight in the Vietnam War. They were tasked to defend Hanoi and shot down scores of US planes. North Korea sent 25 pilots to Syria during the 3rd ArabIsraeli war of 1966, and 30 pilots to Egypt and Syria during the 4th ArabIsraeli war of 1973. In 1976, North Korea sent more than 40 pilots to

Syria. f. Electronic Warfare The United States excels in electronic warfare and no nation comes anywhere near the US capability. North Korea began developing its own electronic warfare methods in 1970. It is believed that North Korea has advanced electronic warfare ability. It has numerous counter measures for US electronic warfare. During the recent war in Iraq, the US dropped e-bombs that disabled the Iraqi electronic devices. North Korea relies heavily on nonelectronic command and control means, and hence US e-bombs will have limited impacts in North Korea. North Korea trains about 100 hackers a year and has computer virus battalions in place. These hackers are capable of interrupting US communication networks. In a war game conducted in 1991 by US war planners, North Korea came out the victor with and without nuclear weapons. Kim Jong Il has no doubt that his army can beat the US army. 6. US Military Defeats in the Past Military power dictates the outcome of war. In assessing the next war in Korea, the military power of the opponents must be examined objectively. Until now, North Korea’s military power has not been properly studied. In general, Western experts tend to underestimate North Korea’s military strength. Politicians in America and South Korea play down North Korean threats for political reasons. It has been said that North Korean army is large in numbers but their equipment are obsolete, and hence it is a weak army. The US war planners assess North Korean army using computer simulations of war in Korea. US war plan for the recent Iraq war was refined using more than 40 computer-simulated wars in Iraq. The computer simulation models use weapon system features among other factors to determine the outcome. It is true that the advanced weapons were instrumental in the US victory in the Gulf War, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and Iraq. On the other hand, the US army was defeated by ill -equipped foes in Korea and Vietnam. The latter two wars show that superior weapons do not always lead to a victory. North Korean and Chinese forces in Korea and the Vietnamese forces fought with superior tactics and stronger fighting fighting spirits. In the next war in Korea, the US army will face an enemy much more determined and better equipped than the army in the Korean War of 195053. h t t p : / / article3099.htm Disclaimer Email This Article MainPage KOREA page 8



Day One – The War With Iran by Bruce Eures (Tommorrow's Headlines, Today » International Relations) Submitted at 2/18/2012 11:50:15 PM

Day One The War With Iran By Douglas Herman A Exclusive 1-9-5 The war began as planned. The Israeli pilots took off well before dawn and streaked across Lebanon and northern Iraq, high above Kirkuk. Flying US-made F-15 and F-16s, the Israelis separated over the mountains of western Iran, the pilots gesturing a last minute show of confidence in their mission, maintaining radio silence. Just before the sun rose over Tehran, moments before the Muslim call to prayer, the missiles struck their targets. While US Air Force AWACS planes circled overhead–listening, watching, recording–heavy US bombers followed minutes later. Bunker-busters and mini-nukes fell on dozens of targets while Iranian anti-aircraft missiles sped skyward. The ironically named Bushehr nuclear power plant crumbled to dust. Russian technicians and foreign nationals scurried for safety. Most did not make it. Targets in Saghand and Yazd, all of them carefully chosen many months before by Pentagon planners, were destroyed. The uranium enrichment facility in Natanz; a heavy water plant and radioisotope facility in Arak; the Ardekan Nuclear Fuel Unit; the Uranium Conversion Facility and Nuclear Technology Center in Isfahan; were struck simultaneously by USAF and Israeli bomber groups. The Tehran Nuclear Research Center, the Tehran Molybdenum, Iodine and Xenon Radioisotope Production Facility, the Tehran Jabr Ibn Hayan Multipurpose Laboratories, the Kalaye Electric Company in the Tehran suburbs were destroyed. Iranian fighter jets rose in scattered groups. At least those Iranian fighter planes that had not been destroyed on the ground by swift and systematic air strikes from US and Israeli missiles. A few Iranian fighters even launched missiles, downing the occasional attacker, but American top guns quickly prevailed in the ensuing dogfights. The Iranian air force, like the Iranian navy, never really knew what hit them. Like the slumbering US sailors at Pearl Harbor, the pre-dawn, preemptive attack wiped out fully half the Iranian defense forces in a matter

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of hours. By mid-morning, the second and third wave of US/Israeli raiders screamed over the secondary targets. The only problem now, the surprising effectiveness of the Iranian missile defenses. The element of surprise lost, US and Israeli warplanes began to fall from the skies in considerable numbers to anti-aircraft fire. At 7:35 AM, Tehran time, the first Iranian anti-ship missile destroyed a Panamanian oil tanker, departing from Kuwait and bound for Houston. Launched from an Iranian fighter plane, the Exocet split the ship in half and set the ship ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz. A second and third tanker followed, black smoke billowing from the broken ships before they blew up and sank. By 8:15 AM, all ship traffic on the Persian Gulf had ceased. US Navy ships, ordered earlier into the relative safety of the Indian Ocean, south of their base in Bahrain, launched counter strikes. Waves of US fighter planes circled the burning wrecks in the bottleneck of Hormuz but the Iranian fighters had fled. At 9 AM, Eastern Standard Time, many hours into the war, CNN reported a squadron of suicide Iranian fighter jets attacking the US Navy fleet south of Bahrain. Embedded reporters aboard the ships–sending live feeds directly to a rapt audience of Americans just awakening–reported all of the Iranian jets destroyed, but not before the enemy planes launched dozens of Exocet and Sunburn anti-ship missiles. A US aircraft carrier, cruiser and two destroyers suffered direct hits. The cruiser blew up and sank, killing 600 men. The aircraft carrier sank an hour later. By mid-morning, every military base in Iran was partially or wholly destroyed. Sirens blared and fires blazed from hundreds of fires.

Explosions rocked Tehran and the electrical power failed. The Al Jazeerah news station in Tehran took a direct hit from a satellite bomb, leveling the entire block. At 9:15 AM, Baghdad time, the first Iranian missile struck the Green Zone. For the next thirty minutes a torrent of missiles landed on GPS coordinates carefully selected by Shiite militiamen with cell phones positioned outside the Green Zone and other permanent US bases. Although US and Israeli bomber pilots had destroyed 90% of the Iranian missiles, enough Shahabs remained to fully destroy the Green Zone, the Baghdad airport, and a US Marine base. Thousands of unsuspecting US soldiers died in the early morning barrage. Not surprisingly, CNN and Fox withheld the great number of casualties from American viewers. By 9:30 AM, gas stations on the US east coast began to raise their prices. Slowly at first and then altogether in a panic, the prices rose. $4 a gallon, and then $5 and then $6, the prices skyrocketed. Worried motorists, rushing from work, roared into the nearest gas station, radios blaring the latest reports of the pre-emptive attack on Iran. While fistfights broke out in gas stations everywhere, the third Middle Eastern war had begun. In Washington DC, the spin began minutes after the first missile struck its intended target. The punitive strike–not really a war said the harried White House spokesman–would further democracy and peace in the Middle East. Media pundits mostly followed the party line. By ridding Iran of weapons of mass destruction, Donald Rumsfeld declared confidently on CNN, Iran might follow in the footsteps of Iraq, and enjoy the hard won fruits of freedom. The president scheduled a speech at

2 PM. Gas prices rose another two dollars before then. China and Japan threatened to dump US dollars. Gold rose $120 an ounce. The dollar plummeted against the Euro. CNN reported violent, anti-American protests in Paris, London, Rome, Berlin and Dublin. Fast food franchises throughout Europe, carrying American corporate logos, were firebombed. A violent coup toppled the proAmerican Pakistan president. On the New York Stock Exchange, prices fell in a frenzy of trading–except for the major petroleum producers. A single, Iranian Shahab missile struck Tel Aviv, destroying an entire city block. Israel vowed revenge, and threatened a nuclear strike on Tehran, before a hastily called UN General Assembly in New York City eased tensions. An orange alert in New York City suddenly reddened to a full-scale terror alarm when a package detonated on a Manhattan subway. Mayor Bloomberg declared martial law. Governor Pataki ordered the New York National Guard fully mobilized, mobilizing what few national guardsmen remained in the state. President Bush looked shaken at 2 PM. The scroll below the TV screen reported Persian Gulf nations halting production of oil until the conflict could be resolved peacefully. Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, announced a freeze in oil deliveries to the US would begin immediately. Tony Blair offered to mediate peace negotiations, between the US and Israel and Iran, but was resoundingly rejected. By 6 PM, Eastern Standard Time, gas prices had stabilized at just below $10 a gallon. A Citgo station in Texas, near Fort Sam Houston Army base, was firebombed. No one claimed responsibility. Terrorism was not ruled out. At sunset, the call to prayer–in Tehran, Baghdad, Islamabad, Ankara, Jerusalem, Jakarta, Riyadh–sounded uncannily like the buzzing of enraged bees. ——————————————— ——USAF veteran, Douglas Herman correctly predicted the aftermath of the attack on Iraq in his column: Shock & Awe Followed by Block-To -Block. A Rense contributer, he is the author of The Guns of Dallas, available at Contact him at



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disciplined level and effort of protection and are likely to become an effective deterrent which will induce the terrorist search for a softer target. A brief mention of bombs is in order before the conclusion, since they are most often the calling card of the terrorist. Bombs are one of their most deadly weapons, to both sides. Talk to the IRA 21, bombs kill Israeli victims visited the assailants. Mainly because of their crude improvisation. Recognition and detection of possible bombs is an essential element in their detection and disposal before detonation occurs. Modern bombs can be triggered in various ways and tampering is illadvised. With this in mind, with those telltale clues of terrorist bomb. Virtually every bomb has metal. Detonators, firing pins, springs and wires are made of metal. These can be detected but extra machines. Certain explosives have a peculiar odor. Electronic sniffers can be used in the detection, or specifically trained dogs can signal bomb threats. Letter bombs are prone to be at least a quarter inch thick. It may feel like a heavily folded report or pamphlet, however, it will also feel heavy and non-resilient like clay. The explosives may sweat, causing greasy marks on the outside of the letter express mail pouch. There may also be an unusual smell. Detonation occurs from opening the top of the envelope, and one should inspect if the sides have been tampered. Parcel bombs unless easily detectable because of the variety of packaging. First question to ask is: who is from? Most parcels come from friends relatives or related

to business transactions, so is the right familiar and/or the package expected. If these questions are asked is unlikely that the potential victim will fail to recognize the parcel as a bomb. Car bombs are more difficult to detect. Outward signs of wear and how parked the car, whether the door, good trunk were left ajar Orthodox have been tampered. The best defense against car bomb is a good auto/ vehicle security system. All that the untrained person can do with any certainty is to have good idea of the kinds of signs that are suspicious – about letters, parcels, parked cars, or other booby-traps. Once suspicious, you should isolate the object and call the bomb squad. Tampering with it would be foolish. It is extremely rare for anyone to be blown up if they had stuck to these rules. This awareness probably saves more lives than all the detection equipment together. Conclusion The conclusions drawn from this report or that terrorist targets are ones with a potential of high visibility and little or no security risk for the terrorist. That the terrorist will stop at no end if so highly motivated and that informed security practices deter most would be terrorists. The foreign traveler must keep a low profile as to not attract attention to himself. Any such unavoidable attention should be covered with adequate security measures. This avoids victimization. Adequate security measures should be based on sound information. Remember, the terrorists are highly educated and cannot be easily placated. They feel that their cause is

legitimate, it may or may not be the case, but an understanding of the terrorist motivation by world leaders and individuals can bring about such a change. Understanding of humans is the only real solution to stem the tide of terrorism. Until such empathy is reached, action and it turns out, is the only means to deny terrorism. Avoid ostentation, controversial stance and indiscriminate friendships. Knowing how to identify suspicious signs of people and things out of the ordinary. Be informed about the environment in which one lives. They sound like extreme cloak and dagger right measures, but not all countries enjoy same security as the United States. First looks over shoulder every 5 min in Dubuque, Iowa, might be considered paranoid, but in Belfast, Ireland, he is very prudent. So let the foreign traveler be prudent in his wait for the terrorist. Footnotes 1“Target of Terrorism “, Target Terrorism: Providing Protective Services, International Assoc. of Chief of Police, 1978 p.7. 2“Out-Inventing the Terrorist”, Terrorism: Theory and Practice, Westview Press Inc., 1979, p.7. 3 Ibid. p.13. 4 Ibid p.8. 5 Clutterbuck, Richard Living with Terrorism, Arlington House Publishers, New Rochelle, New York, 1975 p.22. 6 Carlos Marigehela, For the Liberation of Brazil, Penguin Publishers, London, England, 1971. 7 Clutterbuck, op. cit. pp 33-50 8 Dobson/Payne, The Terrorist Their Weapons, Leaders and Tactics, Facts on File Inc., Park Avenue South New

York, 1982 pp. 86-104. 9 O’Ballance, Edgar, The Language of Violence, Presidio Press, San Rafael, 1979 p. 299. 10 Dobson/Payne op. cit. p.95 11 Ibid., p. 23 12 Ibid., p.42 13 O’Ballance, Edgar, op. cit. p.300 14 Dobson/Payne op. cit., p. 18 15 Ibid., p. 19 16 Ibid., p. 20 17 Clutterbuck, op. cit., p. 141 18 Clutterbuck, op. cit., p. 62 19 Freedom Struggle, by the Provisional I.R.A., 1973 Selected Bibliography Clutterbuck, Richard. Living with Terrorism, New Rochelle, New York: Arlington House Publishers 1975. Dobson/Payne. The Terrorist, Their Weapons, Leaders and Tactics, 460 Park Avenue, South New York, New York, Facts on File Inc., 1982. Kobetz, Richard W. Target Terrorism: Providing Protective Services, Gaithersburg, Maryland: International Association of Chiefs of Police 1978. O’Balance, Edgar. Language of Violence, The Blood Politics of Terrorism, San Rafael, California: Presidio Press 1979. Westview Special Studies in National and International Terrorism, Terrorism: Theroy and Practice, Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press Inc,. 1979.

Navy was tracking Chinese Sub, when the sub collided with the towed Sonar Array by Bruce Eures (Tommorrow's Headlines, Today » International Relations) Submitted at 7/19/2009 1:39:12 PM

By Andrew Scutro – Staff writer Posted : Friday Jun 19, 2009 12:10:00 EDT Two defense officials have confirmed that the crew aboard the destroyer John S. McCain was tracking the submarine that struck its towed sonar array June 10 in the South China Sea off the Philippines. The officials, who are familiar with the incident but were not authorized to speak on the subject, confirmed the array, which trailed up to a mile behind the ship, was hit by a Chinese navy submarine, although it was not sighted on the surface. Days after the incident, Chinese officials acknowledged that the submarine was theirs. The McCain crew was able to retrieve the sonar array, which was damaged, although it’s not clear

whether it was retrieved intact, the defense officials said. A mishap investigation is ongoing. The destroyer, based in Yokosuka, Japan, pulled into port in Sasebo after the incident but soon went back to sea. The officials would not specify whether the submarine was an attack boat or a ballistic-missile sub, and they were unsure of the time of the incident, which occurred in “international waters” south of Subic Bay. The Associated Press reported that the collision took place 144 miles from Subic Bay, potentially placing it in the Mindoro Strait. The collision has been described as “inadvertent” by defense officials. Beyond that, little has been revealed about the circumstances. The Navy by practice does not discuss operations that could reveal force capabilities, but observers have been looking for answers in this case because of the proximity of the

submarine to a U.S. warship. Towed sonar arrays are dragged on a cable about a mile long, with the sensors placed toward the end of the line to avoid absorbing sound from the host ship. Other incidents The collision follows recent incidents in the region in which Chinese vessels harassed two U.S. surveillance ships that specialize in undersea listening, using hefty towed sonar. Chinese submarines are based and operate in the area. News reports at the time said the harassing vessels were trying to snag the trailing U.S. sensor gear. No officials have said that the most recent incident with the McCain was another case of a Chinese vessel harassing a U.S. ship or that the sub was trying to sever the sonar line, although there is precedent for such behaviors. As recounted in the bestseller “Blind Man’s Bluff,” in October 1983 in the Atlantic, a Soviet sub accidentally

snagged a sonar array being towed by a U.S. frigate, detached the cable, got tangled in it and was forced to surface. “No sub skipper in his right mind would use his sub to damage a towed array,” said Jan van Tol, a former destroyer captain who hunted subs in the South China Sea. “It’s extremely unlikely to be deliberate. You don’t want an array caught in your screw.” He said those waters are very noisy, making antisubmarine warfare particularly dicey. “It’s possible it was a blind/blind situation and both sides were surprised,” he said. Most observers resist putting this incident — or accident — into a pattern of what are thought to be calibrated displays of growing Chinese military prowess, such as the 2006 detection of a Chinese sub in torpedo range of the Kitty Hawk Carrier Strike Group. NAVY page 11



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were supported by these troops. PLAN amphibious ships are dated and are small or medium size, and they are based mostly in Hainan. The only large modern amphibious vessel just completed is the 23,000-ton Type 920 LPD 071 Kunlunshan recently based in the southern fleet. The only two 1,250-ton Qiongshi hospital ships in the PLAN always have been based in the South Sea Fleet, but they were joined in 2008 by a new 23,000-ton Type 920 hospital ship with a helicopter deck. This shows where PLAN planners expect combat casualties. Several of the newest 054A frigates, with combat systems previously found only on DDGs, also are there. The old submarine base at Yulin has been expanded with new piers for surface warships. Shipyard number 4801 at Yulin previously repaired only diesel submarines, but it may be upgrading to support at least frigates. The Yulin submarine base has limited draft and a restricted channel to the open sea, so nearby Yalongwan on the coast was chosen to be built up for large warships. China imports 80 percent of its oil from the Middle East across the Indian Ocean and would be crippled if those sea lanes were disrupted. The recent construction of hardened tunnels and enlarged support piers can protect

SLOC missions to escort vital Mideast imports across the Indian Ocean. The co-location of surface and submarine assets facilitates joint submarine/surface escort missions too. China is gaining sea experience in the Indian Ocean with cruises and visits from Australia to Pakistan. In May of 2002, DDG Qingdao and oiler Taichang started a four-month, 30,000-mile cruise to 10 ports, passing through the Panama and Suez canals. In 2005, Hainan-based Luhai DDG 167 Shenzhen and OA 887 Weishanhu held joint exercises with Pakistani and Indian naval units on separate weeks. In July 2007, 052B DDG 168 Guangzhou and oiler Weishanhu departed Sanya Hainan under Rear Adm. Su Zhigian, PLAN, for an 87-day cruise to St. Petersburg, the United Kingdom, Spain and France. The same month, DDG 167 Shenzhen departed Zhanjiang under Rear Adm. Xiao Xinnian, PLAN, for a visit to Tokyo. Two months later, Harbin DDG 112 and oiler 881 departed Qingdao for a cruise to Australia and New Zealand, including two days of joint naval exercises. In March 2009, Yulang I DDG 168 departed from Sanya to participate with 11 other navies in joint exercises hosted by Pakistan. When China completes its first aircraft carrier,

Hainan would be able to provide battle group support with the two destroyer division assets already there. Even if the future PLAN carriers are not based at southern Hainan, they could meet their battle group support there and continue to their blue-water mission operating areas. As ominous as the relocation of the newest and most potent PLAN DDGs, SSBN, LPD and replenishment naval forces to southern Hainan appears, other political and protective motives could exist for this southern base. It may not necessarily be threatening and aggressive. U.S. warships and other nations provided disaster relief operations during 2004 typhoons in Southeast Asia in China’s backyard, and the PLAN absence was humiliating to China. New vessels such as the 23,000-ton hospital ship or Kunlunshan LPD are ideal disaster relief platforms. Protection of vital oil supply lines that bring oil from the Middle East and Latin America is an essential peaceful mission. The building of an aircraft carrier could be needed to show major-power status to match three other Indian Ocean nations that already have at least one. The first blue-water mission of this new Hainan destroyer battle group occurred in January 10, 2008. It was

in response to Somali pirates capturing the Chinese fishing vessel Tian Yu 8 on November 14 and a failed attempt to capture the Zhenhua 4 on December 16. On December 27, China sent 052C DDG 171 Haikou and 052B DDG 169 Wuhan with replenishment ship AO 887 Weishanhu to join 16 other nations’ navies of Task Force 151 in antipirate operations. The U.S. Navy hardly can feel threatened by one carrier or two Aegis DDGs, considering that it has 84 Aegis warships and 11 nuclearpowered supercarriers in commission. The future of other naval powers in the South Pacific, South China Sea and Indian Ocean, including the U.S. Navy, will be greatly affected in the next decade. Naval experts will dispute whether this southern shift of PLAN power and extended Indian Ocean operations are a threat to other nations or not, but only Beijing knows the real intent. James C. Bussert is employed at the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren, Virginia, where he works on surface ship antisubmarine fire control systems.

Was There a Recent Coup Attempt in China? | World Affairs Journal by Bruce Eures (Tommorrow's Headlines, Today » International Relations) Submitted at 3/22/2012 8:57:04 PM

China Defence Today Forum According to a report, around New Year’s day officers in two Chinese air force units were arrested on suspicion of plotting a coup. At the same time, a nuclear submarine on patrol was ordered back to port because some on board were thought to have links with the plotters. This report, circulated on Sunday on a China-watching listserv, remains unconfirmed. This rumor could be linked in some fashion to the detention last month of Colonel Tan Linshu, of the Chinese navy, for subversion. A coup at first glance seems inconceivable, but there has been an evident erosion in civilian control of the Chinese military in recent years. The most important manifestation of this breakdown is that colonels and flag officers have begun openly criticizing civilian leaders and are now speaking out on matters once considered the exclusive province of diplomats. What’s happening? From all indications, senior officers have

gained influence in top Communist Party circles as civilian leaders have, since the early part of last decade, looked to them to settle power struggles in Beijing. Today, that trend is continuing as generals and admirals are involving themselves in a major leadership transition set to formally begin at the end of this year at the 18th Party Congress. Moreover, civilians have increasingly relied on troops of the People’s Liberation Army and the semi-military People’s Armed Police to maintain order in an increasingly volatile society. Finally, China’s current civilian leaders are turning to nationalism to bolster failing political legitimacy, and it is the military that carries the flag of the People’s Republic beyond China’s borders and into space. In view of all these factors, we are witnessing the partial remilitarization of politics and policy. At one time, the Communist Party and the PLA were almost one. The first two leaders of the People’s Republic, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, were army officers. Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, the next two, are civilians, and this has led to the “bifurcation of civil and military elites.”

Jiang’s elevation to the top spot marked the beginning of a period of rapid decline of military influence. His tenure, for instance, witnessed progressively fewer generals and admirals holding posts in top Communist Party organs. No military officer has served on the Politburo Standing Committee, the apex of political power in China, since 1997. The decline is now being reversed as the PLA has been gaining influence during the tenure of Hu Jintao, the current supremo. In January 2011, then Defense Secretary Robert Gates spoke of the “disconnect” between China’s civilian and military leaders. As he suggested, the regime is divided with constituent elements often carrying out their own policies with little evident coordination. As the center continues to fracture during this time of Chinese political transition—something especially evident during Gates’s troubled last visit to Beijing—the one-party system is inevitably splintering, something that has not happened to this degree since the Beijing Spring of 1989 or maybe even since Mao’s death in 1976. As Arthur Waldron of the University of Pennsylvania points out, Chinese history is marked by

periods where civilian and military leaders drift apart, and now China is entering one of those eras. It is, however, one thing to have a strong military and another to have a coup. At one time, the People’s Republic was rife with coup rumors, especially when Lin Biao appeared to lead an unsuccessful attempt to unseat Mao Zedong in 1971. Since then, generals and admirals have given virtually no indication that they possessed grand political ambitions. Now, things look like they are changing. There have been too many reminders in the Chinese state media that “the Party controls the gun”—that the PLA reports to civilians—to think that this has not become an issue. So was there a coup attempt in China in the last two weeks? Even if there was not, talk of a military takeover indicates someone is trying to destabilize the regime, and that cannot be a good thing for the country’s increasingly shaky civilian leaders. strategic-defense/military-coup-china -5916.html



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More likely, the sub’s intent was to stalk the McCain, test its detection abilities, get proof of its proximity and slink away unseen and unheard, said John Arquilla, author and professor of defense analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School. To have pulled that off would have been a “perfect success,” he said. Instead, they got caught. “We should hear alarm bells go off every time we have incidents of this sort,” Arquilla said. “What I see in this pattern of incidents is a growing capability of the Chinese to use stealthy navy assets to get close to our larger and more visible ships.” Because of competing economic and strategic interests in the region, differing interpretations of international demarcations and a growing Chinese fleet, such incidents are inevitable, said Bonnie Glaser, a China security expert and senior fellow at the Center for Strategic & International Studies. “We increasingly operate in close proximity to each other, and the

Chinese do not accept the U.S. presence, especially in their [Exclusive Economic Zone], as legitimate,” she said. “They seem increasingly confident and willing to push back.” Glaser points to the U.S. Navy’s reputation for safety, professionalism and caution. And although she doesn’t believe the Chinese submarine meant to hit the sonar, it’s indicative of that government’s desire to test U.S. responses as well as its differing military style. “I don’t think you can apply our own standards of behavior to the Chinese,” she said. “They seem to have a higher tolerance for risk.” Sources: Navy was tracking Chinese sub – Army News, news from Iraq, – Army Times

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